Not promoting anything here, but I would like people here to read the following link and give their opinion as to what it means. Thanks
Who Didn't Get Drafted
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I could take an educated guess and say that maybe the player told scouts he really wanted to go to college or he suggested he wanted more money than they had him slotted for? Would that drop him off of a draft list as a HS player, perhaps to be taken after his junior year?
I agree with no11...but would also like to add that I bet many of those players were late bloomers and added the size associated with the college strength and conditioning programs...and combine that with some great coaching and everything just clicked.
Read that one earlier ....
.... figured it was a filler article in order to meet contractual obligations when he didn't have anything meaningful to say on the topic.
.... meaningless noise.
.... figured it was a filler article in order to meet contractual obligations when he didn't have anything meaningful to say on the topic.
.... meaningless noise.
I think the last sentence says it in a nutshell.
I think it's an interesting read. I think the majority of talented HS players NOT drafted did have signability issues.
THE GOOD and BAD of it all.
BAD: It also provides ANOTHER excuse for those college parents whos son's were NOT talented enough to be drafted out of high school. College fans will have 3 years of listening to the parent tell about how their son "was" a first round pick but wasn't drafted because everyone knew he was going to college.
GOOD: It also proves to the "average" player that if he has a strong desire to play college ball and works hard he can improve his draft status.
Fungo
quote:
Of course, each player is an individual case, so perhaps the list above means many different things.
I think it's an interesting read. I think the majority of talented HS players NOT drafted did have signability issues.
THE GOOD and BAD of it all.
BAD: It also provides ANOTHER excuse for those college parents whos son's were NOT talented enough to be drafted out of high school. College fans will have 3 years of listening to the parent tell about how their son "was" a first round pick but wasn't drafted because everyone knew he was going to college.
GOOD: It also proves to the "average" player that if he has a strong desire to play college ball and works hard he can improve his draft status.
Fungo
quote:College fans will have 3 years of listening to the parent tell about how their son "was" a first round pick but wasn't drafted because everyone knew he was going to college.
My son was a definite first rounder out of HS, but he went undrafted after we told scouts that the money wasn't as important as the partying and the women!!!
PG,
I think your article translates that there are many reasons why players don't get drafted or drafted late and it isn't always because they SHOULD be drafted or drafted earlier in that particular draft year.. There are many reasons why someone doesn't get drafted and we don't know and shouldn't assume that we know the reason is that scouts don't know what they are doing. I really do think that most of them and scouting diectors do know what they are doing. I think they get it right most of the time, especially over the past few years. Sometimes we'll read a story about a player who was a very late rounder goes onto play MLB. He most likely had the tools to begin with, but may have slipped due to bonus demands or was just not a first, second, third, etc. rounder at THE TIME OF HIS draft.
My understanding has always been that being drafted meant that you go play pro ball or if the round is not what you expected even after honest discussion then you can decide to go head off to college to improve, or just to go have the college experience and take a chance on a better draft position. There are only 1500 slots available and it's my opinion that if you have no desire to really turn pro at the time of the draft you should pass for the opportunity to give to someone else who really will go play even for peanuts.
Most likely many of the players drafted in HS but late, could already be playing MLB but the bonus money was not to their liking. That's ok, but these days there are too many players and their parents who believe that their players are high draft picks, which they may be, but not on draft day and deserve first round money. I am not sure if people understand what a first rounder is. A good example is to take a look at those players drafted first round and the contribution they make to their teams in post season. These are players that will get the hit when needed, get the strike out when needed and that is what seperates your players from top to bottom in most cases. It's not always about accuracy or velocity, or high batting averages.
There are only 1500 slots available and if a player does not want to go play pro ball he should pass that opportunity to someone who wants to. But that's my opinion.
For many young players who have that burning desire to be drafted and make big bonus bucks out of HS, reality sometimes sets in that it's such a long shot while playing in college. There are many players who do not have the desire to continue the game or actually have the ability.
A friend of mine told me once (you know him PG), that so many often confuse the really successful college (or HS) players to being a very early draft pick. This discussion came after a pitcher that I thought would be drafted first 10 rounds was not and explained to me that with heavy reliance on the slider he was successful but his draft round indicated that work needed to be done to succeed at the next level against wood. With more reliance on movement of the FB and development of the CU that pitcher is doing very well in pro ball. The same for position players, powerful hitters with aluminum bats doesn't always mean powerful hitters with wood bats.
Sorry to ramble.
Good article by the way.
I think your article translates that there are many reasons why players don't get drafted or drafted late and it isn't always because they SHOULD be drafted or drafted earlier in that particular draft year.. There are many reasons why someone doesn't get drafted and we don't know and shouldn't assume that we know the reason is that scouts don't know what they are doing. I really do think that most of them and scouting diectors do know what they are doing. I think they get it right most of the time, especially over the past few years. Sometimes we'll read a story about a player who was a very late rounder goes onto play MLB. He most likely had the tools to begin with, but may have slipped due to bonus demands or was just not a first, second, third, etc. rounder at THE TIME OF HIS draft.
My understanding has always been that being drafted meant that you go play pro ball or if the round is not what you expected even after honest discussion then you can decide to go head off to college to improve, or just to go have the college experience and take a chance on a better draft position. There are only 1500 slots available and it's my opinion that if you have no desire to really turn pro at the time of the draft you should pass for the opportunity to give to someone else who really will go play even for peanuts.
Most likely many of the players drafted in HS but late, could already be playing MLB but the bonus money was not to their liking. That's ok, but these days there are too many players and their parents who believe that their players are high draft picks, which they may be, but not on draft day and deserve first round money. I am not sure if people understand what a first rounder is. A good example is to take a look at those players drafted first round and the contribution they make to their teams in post season. These are players that will get the hit when needed, get the strike out when needed and that is what seperates your players from top to bottom in most cases. It's not always about accuracy or velocity, or high batting averages.
There are only 1500 slots available and if a player does not want to go play pro ball he should pass that opportunity to someone who wants to. But that's my opinion.
For many young players who have that burning desire to be drafted and make big bonus bucks out of HS, reality sometimes sets in that it's such a long shot while playing in college. There are many players who do not have the desire to continue the game or actually have the ability.
A friend of mine told me once (you know him PG), that so many often confuse the really successful college (or HS) players to being a very early draft pick. This discussion came after a pitcher that I thought would be drafted first 10 rounds was not and explained to me that with heavy reliance on the slider he was successful but his draft round indicated that work needed to be done to succeed at the next level against wood. With more reliance on movement of the FB and development of the CU that pitcher is doing very well in pro ball. The same for position players, powerful hitters with aluminum bats doesn't always mean powerful hitters with wood bats.
Sorry to ramble.
Good article by the way.
I know the family of one of the players on the list. The kid was a Top 100 coming out of high school. The kid made it clear he was going to college. Understanding the process, his dad was slightly surprised no one drafted the kid anyway as a late pick chance. He was not upset. The kid was going to college.
I saw a seperate article on MLB.com that stated that this was the lowest number of HS draftees in 28 or so years.
It is an enjoyable journey with many twists and turns. Enjoy the ride.
It is an enjoyable journey with many twists and turns. Enjoy the ride.
.
What does THIS mean?...
I find this very interesting...New Rules? The marketing of college ball? The lure of college ball? The emergence of JC ball? Perception of better money later? The desire to develop before taking on the draft?
...or means nothing at all...a 28 year anomolie?
44
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What does THIS mean?...
quote:Originally posted by floridafan:
I saw a seperate article on MLB.com that stated that this was the lowest number of HS draftees in 28 or so years.
I find this very interesting...New Rules? The marketing of college ball? The lure of college ball? The emergence of JC ball? Perception of better money later? The desire to develop before taking on the draft?
...or means nothing at all...a 28 year anomolie?
44.
Observer, you have a PM...
The questions are always the same after every draft. Linearity is not the issue. As in all walks of life there are no monoliths one can point to for answers. When dealing with human beings who have already perceived and image biases all of whom are into the one upmanship game, eg who is fastest, who is strongest in example that encompasses the Pro Scouting Benchmarks and measureables it becomes obvious before the two days are up that the scouting criteria is not always observed to any standard.
Right now we know of a 5 tool player that should have been drafted, led his team is almost every category, with no character issues but as is with all the emphasis on centrality as the authority for core minimums it no longer is even feasible that the best players are even playing in the MLB.
No one can fault a system that hasn't changed in it modus operandi since Eli Whitney's invention, but what the hay we're dealing with baseball, not rocket science.
The article just scratches the surface of the systems total inadequacies.
JMO
Right now we know of a 5 tool player that should have been drafted, led his team is almost every category, with no character issues but as is with all the emphasis on centrality as the authority for core minimums it no longer is even feasible that the best players are even playing in the MLB.
No one can fault a system that hasn't changed in it modus operandi since Eli Whitney's invention, but what the hay we're dealing with baseball, not rocket science.
The article just scratches the surface of the systems total inadequacies.
JMO
quote:Originally posted by observer44:
I find this very interesting...New Rules? The marketing of college ball? The lure of college ball? The emergence of JC ball? Perception of better money later? The desire to develop before taking on the draft?
...or means nothing at all...a 28 year anomolie?
.
Obviously the new transfer rules had no negative impact on the draft if HS drafted players were drafted, would be interesting ot see how many actually sign.
Lower round drafted HS players head off to play rookie complex ball. This means getting up in the morning at 6:30 and done with your day by 1pm, either in the dry heat of Arizona or the wet heat of Florida. You play against other teams, but no one comes. For many players this is a step down, IMO. Top picks get moved to rookie leagues or short season if they are lucky, but that is usually out of need by what's going on up in the higher levels. So the lure of college baseball is much greater and many prefer to grow up in college. Of course this desn't apply to everyone and most likely depends on the team. In some cases, the low rookie level is often largely filled with players brought up from the dominican leagues, this can be even more difficult for some players.
This may be argued, but I read an article that stated that many very good coaches (due to pay) now head to the college game where they get paid more money. College coaching, in some cases has now become a whole lot better than some lower levels.
JMO.
Hindsight is always 20/20 so I look at the high school age draft differently now than when my son was drafted coming out of high school. He and I thought at the time that being drafted out of high school was the ultimate goal of any talented high school player wanting to play MLB. It was viewed as the ultimate validation! It was looked at as the natural step in the right direction. But the HSBBW was young and not many parents/players that had been drafted frequented the HSBBW. Not that we were trailblazer but reliable draft information about a very important process was scarce. It was hyped in our minds as the just reward for many years of hard work. As it unfolded and I became involved in the negotiations many things came to light. I know now that being drafted out of high school means very little in the big picture of MLB success. To say that being drafted out of HS is necessary for a successful professional career is akin to saying your date to the high school prom is an important step in having a happy marriage. There are fantastic stories about high school draftees making it to the show and first dates that end in marital bliss. Both get lots of news coverage because they are unique. I think the baseball public is beginning to become more educated (thanks to the HSBBW and others) on the whole HS/college/MiLB/MLB journey. While being drafted out of high school will continue to be an important option and milestone for some MLB hopefuls, I think today’s more informed baseball parent/player will see it primarily as a premature grasp at greatness for most young players.
Fungo
Fungo
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Good insights...
TPM...never thought about college coaching in that respect. Always assumed that MLB was better. Good thought.
And Fungo....great post.
It makes a great deal of sense when you think about it...After years of watching college players...and watching high school players change and develop athlticially, emotionally, and physically in college and still struggle going into the professional ranks...It would seem to me that for all but the very, very best high schoolers it is a very rocky road...as you say a...
44
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Good insights...
TPM...never thought about college coaching in that respect. Always assumed that MLB was better. Good thought.
And Fungo....great post.
It makes a great deal of sense when you think about it...After years of watching college players...and watching high school players change and develop athlticially, emotionally, and physically in college and still struggle going into the professional ranks...It would seem to me that for all but the very, very best high schoolers it is a very rocky road...as you say a...
quote:a premature grasp at greatness
44.
Fungo, thank you for that very insightful post.
I always enjoy reading your refreshing and down to earth points of view. You and your son have been there and done that. Because of that, my son and I learn a great deal from you.
I always enjoy reading your refreshing and down to earth points of view. You and your son have been there and done that. Because of that, my son and I learn a great deal from you.
The low number of HS draftees may be the result of what could be considered a less talented HS graduating class than previous years---this does happen
Heck of a post, Fungo; I hope every drafted/undrafted/potential NDFA parent & player on the board reads it and takes it in.
Every scout looks at players through his own filter: whether offense or defense is more important, which skills he believes to be inherent and which can be 'taught later', whether a guy has potential for further development, whether psychological makeup is a consideration. And every player, parent or fan looks at the selections through their own filters, too.
No scout/crosschecker or VP of Player Development sees every prospect; they don't even see the ones they can watch in comparable situations (mid-season or end-of-season? who's the competition? what are the weather conditions?)
It's a seat-of-the-pants endeavor. Which is why Money Ball tried so hard to quantify the pretty-much-unquantifiable. And which is also why not every first rounder sees MLB time and why some ultimate stars are Second Day Guys or NDFA's.
It's the essence of baseball --- everyone has an opinion and nobody is Right.
None of these guys is going straight to the majors, so who was drafted where and when out of what level school is food for...what?...the cold air conditioner league? (Well, if the off-season is the hot stove league....
) The Pads tell their guys less than 5% of the MiLB players will see a day of MLB play (injury & Sept callups). And only 2% will have careers. If the game weren't so riveting, those kinds of odds would lead one to believe it's not worth talking about !
Actually, I've been surprised about coaching in the minors (well, my limited exposure). The standard and quality are high, but it's more narrow in focus than college. For example, High A pitchers work on consistency within their pitches. Period. Not holding runners, not fielding, and only rarely adding new pitches. Different game from hs/college.
Every scout looks at players through his own filter: whether offense or defense is more important, which skills he believes to be inherent and which can be 'taught later', whether a guy has potential for further development, whether psychological makeup is a consideration. And every player, parent or fan looks at the selections through their own filters, too.
No scout/crosschecker or VP of Player Development sees every prospect; they don't even see the ones they can watch in comparable situations (mid-season or end-of-season? who's the competition? what are the weather conditions?)
It's a seat-of-the-pants endeavor. Which is why Money Ball tried so hard to quantify the pretty-much-unquantifiable. And which is also why not every first rounder sees MLB time and why some ultimate stars are Second Day Guys or NDFA's.
It's the essence of baseball --- everyone has an opinion and nobody is Right.
None of these guys is going straight to the majors, so who was drafted where and when out of what level school is food for...what?...the cold air conditioner league? (Well, if the off-season is the hot stove league....
) The Pads tell their guys less than 5% of the MiLB players will see a day of MLB play (injury & Sept callups). And only 2% will have careers. If the game weren't so riveting, those kinds of odds would lead one to believe it's not worth talking about !Actually, I've been surprised about coaching in the minors (well, my limited exposure). The standard and quality are high, but it's more narrow in focus than college. For example, High A pitchers work on consistency within their pitches. Period. Not holding runners, not fielding, and only rarely adding new pitches. Different game from hs/college.
quote:everyone has an opinion and nobody is Right
.....ain't that the truth.
Nice post, Fungo, as usual.
And, I'll echo the same comments.
Three years (or four) of college baseball experience add tremendously to the potential success of minor league baseball players.
I think the draft results are indicative of that.
When my son signed last summer, he was assigned to a low A full season team because of an injury to a player. I don't think that would have been possible had my son not played three years in the Big 12 conference.
ALL the other players went to short season first.
In general the players that migrated up to the low A full season team by the end of the summer were former college players.
I saw high school players that moved up and then back down.
Hard to see and understand the transition until you've been on both sides.
I saw the transition from high school to college.
Now, I've seen enough of the transition into the minor leagues to know that the transition to minor leagues is much broader than the transition to college from high school.
The pitching is far more talented across the board, the wooden bat is a very signficant factor, playing with much more experienced players, and the overall maturity of the players all add to the huge transition.
Quite fascinating for me to be able to observe.........
And, I'll echo the same comments.
Three years (or four) of college baseball experience add tremendously to the potential success of minor league baseball players.
I think the draft results are indicative of that.
When my son signed last summer, he was assigned to a low A full season team because of an injury to a player. I don't think that would have been possible had my son not played three years in the Big 12 conference.
ALL the other players went to short season first.
In general the players that migrated up to the low A full season team by the end of the summer were former college players.
I saw high school players that moved up and then back down.
Hard to see and understand the transition until you've been on both sides.
I saw the transition from high school to college.
Now, I've seen enough of the transition into the minor leagues to know that the transition to minor leagues is much broader than the transition to college from high school.
The pitching is far more talented across the board, the wooden bat is a very signficant factor, playing with much more experienced players, and the overall maturity of the players all add to the huge transition.
Quite fascinating for me to be able to observe.........
John Marriotti who was drafted 3 times finally signed after going to Gulf Coast for 2 years and then graduating from Coastal Carolina last year. He turned down the money 2 times and went to college. The Angels kept drafting him and I am sure they knew he wouldn't sign until after college.
I have seen some awful pitchers sign in late rounds just on velo. One was also a bad actor having been suspended a few times by his elite team. Caught shop lifting on one trip to the USA. I am always surprised by some of the drafted guys and many who don't get drafted. One college guy I followed was outstanding and got drafted late compared to an average HS player who was drafted much earlier.
I have seen some awful pitchers sign in late rounds just on velo. One was also a bad actor having been suspended a few times by his elite team. Caught shop lifting on one trip to the USA. I am always surprised by some of the drafted guys and many who don't get drafted. One college guy I followed was outstanding and got drafted late compared to an average HS player who was drafted much earlier.
Thank you all - this was a really good read and once again proves the value of this site.
quote:Originally posted by Consultant:
Hello;
During the 2008 Amateur draft, 5 players who traveled to Australia with pro scouts as coaches were drafted. One player is the 1st round and one player in the 2nd round and one player in the 3rd round, one player in the 29th round and 5th player in the 34th round. Ten players will receive a college scholarship.
From our 2 week and 12 games observation of the players, we can make several conclusions.
Two high school players are "ready" to pro play now!
The majority will require the experience of college baseball to mature as a player and as a person. The magic word is "adjustment".
The 2 high school players constantly made the necessary adjustments against the professional and Olympic players from Australia and China.
Bob Williams
I took it to mean that very few if any players are missed. Generally, if a player isn't drafted out of HS it is because the risk of losing a draft choice outweighs the upside at that point in time. We've had a couple players from our league who weren't drafted out of HS who will be drafted fairly early out of college. The league has also had kids drafted and signed that you knew were going to go pro. One of the interesting ones out of our league this year was when a pitcher who saw limited use but was fairly highly rated by PG went earlier than the top pitcher on their staff (who was also ranked highly by PG). I guess he gave up too many walks (5) on his way to posting a 0.00 ERA in 11 innings while giving up 4 hits and striking out 13. To be fair, this team had a very deep staff with another solid senior, and a talented junior and sophmore. Looks like the pros, the colleges and the HS's all have a bit of a different perspective.
Here is more on this subject. The numbers obviously mean something. I sure wish I knew exactly what they mean.
More About Who Didn't Get Drafted
More About Who Didn't Get Drafted
PG,
I hope you don't mind me pulling this quote out:
"Perhaps the strangest stat in the 2007 draft was that nearly 80% of all the college players selected in the first three rounds were not drafted out of high school."
That is so surprising...nearly 80%! It would be very interesting if someone could go back and research those players, see if there were scouting reports on them back in HS or if many flew completely under the radar until they got greater exposure in college baseball...or what the percentages were for all other reasons.
I hope you don't mind me pulling this quote out:
"Perhaps the strangest stat in the 2007 draft was that nearly 80% of all the college players selected in the first three rounds were not drafted out of high school."
That is so surprising...nearly 80%! It would be very interesting if someone could go back and research those players, see if there were scouting reports on them back in HS or if many flew completely under the radar until they got greater exposure in college baseball...or what the percentages were for all other reasons.
Good stuff PG!
What does it mean, it means if you were heavily scouted in HS, not drafted or drafted later round in HS and went off to college, they'll most likely be watching.
What does it mean, it means if you were heavily scouted in HS, not drafted or drafted later round in HS and went off to college, they'll most likely be watching.