What is the right play in this situation?

PGStaff initiated a thread some months ago asking what the runner on third does in first and third situations regardless of number of outs when there is a come backer to the mound.

 

Long discussion eventually validated your son's calculation.  

Level of play dictates what the runner does to me. D1 ball runner goes. Little League or "select" ball runner stays.

it was a great thread, btw.

This reminds me of something.  There are situations where having a runner at 2B is better than having that runner at 3B or even having that runner score.

I agree.  We all love a homerun but I have always preferred to have a runner on than empty bases.  Prefer a double or triple; than homer.  Always felt any distraction to the pitcher was good thing.

At what level, if any, would you prefer the certainty of the run?  Also, why would there be a preference (assuming higher levels) of having a runner on 2nd instead of third (asusmng you are down two runs with few outs left)?  I'd be right there telling the pitcher to ignore the runner and his stealing/scoring is a non-issue.  Is the argument solely that the baserunner distracts the pitcher - even at higher levels?  Getting back to 2nd instead of 3rd - I always thought a runner on 3rd - especially with a RHP - could really make himself a distraction getting down the line as the pitcher goes to the plate.  How might a kid on second be more beneficial?

The advantages are very slight, but slight advantages can help win games.

 

Last inning, 2 outs, two run lead, one runner on base.  That runner at 3B means absolutely nothing until the hitter gets on base.  At secondbase, he obviously isn't going to steal third.  At secondbase, he can possibly help the hitter in some cases.  He can also get in the way of a ground ball to the shortstop and cause the hitter (the potential tying run) to reach base. At thirdbase he is just out of the way!

 

In these type situations we had a play where we would pick at 2B and overthrow to our centerfielder who would run in and position himself in short LC field.  The goal was to get the runner to react and throw him out at 3B or going back to 2B.  This was a free play and we didn't care if he even scored on the play.  The hitter (tying run) still had to reach base. The defensive player that gains the most by having a runner at 3B rather than 2B is the shortstop.  I'm sure we have all seen how tough it is at times when the ground ball goes through the runner or even when the runner gets between the ball and the shortstop.  It's just a tougher play than when there is no runner.

This is a tough one, i'm leaning slightly w the consensus you go. A smart 3b doesnt give a rats about that dude on third unless its a really slow chopper/ a ball he has to come in on. The runner goes and u have the chance he brainfarts and airmails the ball somewhere, or he makes the play at the plate and u got two runners on. Or the very small chance he goes home quick, and the runner on third gets in a pickle and lets the two others maybe advance another base.

To play devils advocate though, from a pitchers perspective: say that runner on third stays and the DP is turned. Even knowing the runner on third means absolutely nothing, and then going into the windup, there is something nice about being up one still with nobody on and you only need one out. Like a clean slate to get one guy (with some wiggle room still). For some, that guy on guy on third is a reminder they are in trouble, even as much as you tell yourself he means nothing.

I still say you go though.

I've also taken a similar mindset. Most will teach that because the runner means nothing the pitcher should focus on the batter. Personally, I've never seen the runner as a distraction for my pitchers and I see that runner as a free shot at a cheap out. Thus, try to pick him off any way I can, knowing that if F1 throws the ball away, absolutely no harm done. Similarly, when it's my runner on base, he's instructed to be VERY careful.

If I am reading the OP's scenario correctly (and I think I am), this is very straightforward:  the runner should take off for home immediately, because:

1. You have to assume the 3b is going to go to 2b to get a force to keep the tying run from being in scoring position;

2. If for some reason the 3b does not throw to 2b, one has to assume his back up option will be to get the force at 1st;

3. If he does come home with it, the runner's job would then be to get in a run down long enough to allow R1 to reach 3B and batter to reach 2b, resulting in 2nd and 3rd with one out which is a great outcome that you'd take any day given the original scenario.