Was just looking at the stats of a player who attended one of the better D2 programs in the country and played in one of the strongest D2 baseball conferences around.
He was a 4 year starter and had around 900 career plate appearances at the D2 level with a career OPS of .950 (give or take a few points).
Never played pro ball at any level after college.
Is this the norm or the exception at D2?
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Add on: All four years where the player posted those numbers were with BBCOR rules in effect. This was not in the days of the rocket launcher bats.
Did you look at recent milb players who came from D2? Seems like you could do more research on the matter
Re-read my reply and it seemed pretty snarky, not my intent. Anyways I think the scouts/pro ball gate keepers know who has the talent to go pro. Your D2 stats stud may have had hitting warts to the pro talent evaluators.
@2022NYC posted:Re-read my reply and it seemed pretty snarky, not my intent. Anyways I think the scouts/pro ball gate keepers know who has the talent to go pro. Your D2 stats stud may have had hitting warts to the pro talent evaluators.
I think your reply was reasonable. Google confirms what should be common knowledge here: that only a small number of D2 players are drafted, and that of those, most are pitchers and most got noticed playing in big time summer leagues, not in their college games.
If a guy with stellar numbers was not drafted my guess would be that he didn't play or didn't play well in summer leagues, and/or he hit well but with no power.
Part of the problem with playing at a lower level is playing lower level competition, especially as a position player. 95 is 95 in the SEC and D2, but an OPS of .950 is not the same when you look at SEC pitching vs D2 pitching. You can kill pitching all you want, but if you were murdering mid 80s pitching it's pretty meaningless.
About 80ish D2 guys get drafted each year (40 rd draft) with maybe 10 or so coming from the top 10 rounds. I'd also say the the majority of these guys are coming from the same conferences where the baseball looks more like D1 ball than some D1 conferences (sunshine, peach, etc) or they come from the same handful of schools (UCSD, Mesa, Tampa, etc).
I would probably say it's a safe bet that most D2 draftees were either late bloomers (specifically arms) or D1 dropdowns/juco transfers
But to answer your question I wouldn't say its the norm or the exception. I'd say the kid either killed bad pitching or had no pro tools.
Thanks guys. I appreciate the explanation.
Generally it is easier to make it from D2/D3 as a pitcher because velo is velo and hitting is dependent on competition.
Hitting performance from lower divisions and even weaker D1 conferences will be taken with a grain of salt by pro teams.
It is still possible to make it but while performance is a good start a high OPS is usually not enough to get drafted out of lower divisions.
So if you want to get drafted out of d2 or d3 you better perform AND you also show some measurable tools.
With more and more teams getting trackman for example exceptional exit velocities (plus good hitting performance of course) might get you noticed.
But if you just have a good ops with high average, lots of walks and a few homers that might not be enough from D2 if your measurables are not outstanding.
Here are some d2 players in mlb
I guess a guy like Alex Wojciechowski is an example here. He destroyed D2 pitching in his college career but struggled significantly in his one season of pro ball in Low A.
I also guess this means that most of the dominant pitchers end up at D1? Related, is it safe to assume that the kid who doesn't hit playing D2 would have certainly been over matched at D1?
Francis;
have you observed a game thru the eyes of a pro scout. The scout does not have a list of measurables" to effect his judgment and evaluation. He talks with the teammates, watches his parents at the game and his coaches before and during the game and after the game. The Scout does his "home work".
His eyes have to determine, if the player can play every day in pro ball, bat with the bases loaded and a his team losing or pitch in a 9th inning with the winning run on and no outs.
He is watching the player one hour before the game. How does he prepare for "battle".
He reports will contain words plays like "Joe Morgan", walks like "Pete Rose" and other descriptive words that are recognized by his Director. He does not differ from D-2 or D-1.
He is "prospecting" for GOLD! Looking for the Special "6th Tool".
College Coaches perform the same analysis + the added Academic asset. "the game has not change, only the evaluator.
Questions are the same "can he play!" Can he help us win!!!!.
Bob
@Francis7 posted:..... Related, is it safe to assume that the kid who doesn't hit playing D2 would have certainly been over matched at D1?
I'd say that is a generally correct assumption. Some exceptions apply. An example would be a coach who insists on a change of mechanics or approach that the hitter can never get comfortable with.
I always liked the scouting report ... Runs like a deer. Unfortunately hits like one too.
Related, if it's fair to say that few players from D2 play professionally, is it also fair to say that few from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, Northeast Conference, America East and Patriot League end up in professional ranks as well?
@RJM posted:I always liked the scouting report ... Runs like a deer. Unfortunately hits like one too.
This Deer would have fit in nicely with the current brand of MLB play
@Francis7 posted:I guess a guy like Alex Wojciechowski is an example here. He destroyed D2 pitching in his college career but struggled significantly in his one season of pro ball in Low A.
I also guess this means that most of the dominant pitchers end up at D1? Related, is it safe to assume that the kid who doesn't hit playing D2 would have certainly been over matched at D1?
Yes the majority of dominant pitchers end up in D1. Because of this D2 is more of an offensive division, hitters can dominate. That goes for most D1 programs, with exception.
I wouldn't assume that a D2 hitter would be overmatched in D1, as I feel that D2 has a lot of really good hitters, but just not enough room for them at D1.
Also, most dont realize how incredibly hard pro ball is for both hitter and pitcher, no matter what program that you came from.
JMO
TPM;
yes, that is correct. A few [quite a few} years ago a scout friend and I watched our local D-2 play and during the game I asked what was his opinion of the team's #1 hitter, who had 15 HR's in 34 games and the LF fence was 340' and alleys at 365'. CF was 404'.
The pro scout related that with wood bats the majority of the HR's would be outs at the "warning track". The majority of scouts take a 40' deduction of HR distance with players using metal.
This was one of the reasons I created the Area Code games in 1987 using wood bats.
Bob
@Consultant posted:TPM;
yes, that is correct. A few [quite a few} years ago a scout friend and I watched our local D-2 play and during the game I asked what was his opinion of the team's #1 hitter, who had 15 HR's in 34 games and the LF fence was 340' and alleys at 365'. CF was 404'.
The pro scout related that with wood bats the majority of the HR's would be outs at the "warning track". The majority of scouts take a 40' deduction of HR distance with players using metal.
This was one of the reasons I created the Area Code games in 1987 using wood bats.
Bob
Bob,
Nice post, I never thought of that!
Happy New Year!
@Ripken Fan posted:This Deer would have fit in nicely with the current brand of MLB play
Sad commentary on the game. Joey Gallo is Rob Deer reincarnated.
@Francis7 posted:Related, if it's fair to say that few players from D2 play professionally, is it also fair to say that few from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, Northeast Conference, America East and Patriot League end up in professional ranks as well?
I don't understand what you're asking. You know it would be a safe assumption to make that there would be less pro players coming out of some of the weaker conferences in D1. That information is also public, just look up SEC draft vs MAAC draft.
The D2 guys getting drafted are often coming from the same set of schools/conferences. Just like D1, D2 baseball is not created equally. I would say the kids committing to Patriot type D1 conferences aren't pro prospects either
Odds are that if you aren't looking at the top 1/2 of D1 baseball or getting looks from Tampa, Mesa, UCSD or the like I would give more thought to college beyond a baseball fit
Ripken fan
when Rob Deer lived in Santa Rosa, we conducted hitting clinics at the SRJC. He has “bat speed”!
Bob
@Consultant posted:TPM;
yes, that is correct. A few [quite a few} years ago a scout friend and I watched our local D-2 play and during the game I asked what was his opinion of the team's #1 hitter, who had 15 HR's in 34 games and the LF fence was 340' and alleys at 365'. CF was 404'.
The pro scout related that with wood bats the majority of the HR's would be outs at the "warning track". The majority of scouts take a 40' deduction of HR distance with players using metal.
This was one of the reasons I created the Area Code games in 1987 using wood bats.
Bob
what would the conversion be today, wit BBCOR?
The impact "sound" will be like hitting with a "rolled newspaper"!!! See my earlier message the "eyes of a pro scout"
Scouts will always have their projections. With the reduction of Minor League teams there will be fewer pro scouts and I expect College Coaches will revise their player selection strategy.
There are many opportunity's for a new style baseball event.
Bob
I think two factors have made pro ball even harder in the last years:
1) velo
Just a couple years ago the average FB was like 90 and as long you could hit 91 consistently you could get by even if high 90s overwhelmed you, at least at lower levels. But nowadays even in rookie ball you will see 95 every game. Not every pitcher but at least one pitcher per game.
That means you need to be able to hit mid 90s consistently.
2) breaking balls
Fastball usage in mlb consistently went down the last years. Nowadays many pitchers throw less than 50% fastballs. That means that the good old spit on breaking balls and hit fastballs will work less because if you do that you will see get me over curve, coupled with chest high fastballs and then you have to hit the off speed stuff.
Still nobody hits a great curve and you better hit a good fastball if you see it but you at least need to be able to hit the get me over curve that many pitchers now use with one strike or you will hit in 2 strike counts all the time.
I think this is a big difference to college ball, in college a good approach can mask weaknesses if you are able to consistently square up upper 80s and don't chase all the junk but pro ball pitchers have the stuff to expose that and that upper 80s "bread and butter" fastball over the plate will be a rare thing in pro ball.
That means the pro scout who sees you producing well against 86-90 fastballs over the plate has to decide whether that will scale against 96 and mid 80s sliders.
I have coached several players who went to D-II schools who then played professionally. In fact, one of them broke the NCAA record for hits in a career with 356 hits in his career. Although that record has now been broken, it is substantial. Ironically, he didn't play in milb but did play independent league ball. One of these players was drafted as a CF. His arm was outstanding and they made him into a pitcher. He was in the Baltimore organization and was in the trade between Baltimore and Chicago for Sammy Sosa.
Keep in mind that there are several reasons why players have played D-II including easier acceptance into schools and financial reasons. It isn't as easy as simply comparing D-I and D-II and, as I have mentioned before, there are D-II teams/programs that are better than some D-I teams/programs.
Another assumption:
He was offered to play, or as a free agent, but decided to take his $85,000 starting salary job offer instead.
Thinking about this some more.
Totally agree that 95 is 95 whether it's D1 or D2 and that's why you see D2 pitchers go pro.
That said, with the advanced metrics and devices available today, measuring things like bat speed, exit velo, etc., if we ever get to the day where MLB starts doing combines, maybe more D2 position players will have more interest from the big league teams? Just like 95 is 95, an exit velo of 110 off the hack measured by hit trax is the same whether it's from a D1 or D2 player.
Might see combines this year with the later draft.
In general, more D2/D3 players who go to pro ball are Pitchers & Catchers.
The best way for a D2 or D3 position player to get into pro ball is to find a way into a very good to great summer league, and absolutely rake in that summer league against pro prospects. Tough to do, as most of the best summer leagues are filled with D1 hitters.
Top hitters against plus pitching will have good rapsodo hitting scores or hit trax metrics but it is not always true the other way around.
@Francis7 posted:Thinking about this some more. Totally agree that 95 is 95 whether it's D1 or D2 and that's why you see D2 pitchers go pro.
That said, with the advanced metrics and devices available today, measuring things like bat speed, exit velo, etc., if we ever get to the day where MLB starts doing combines, maybe more D2 position players will have more interest from the big league teams? Just like 95 is 95, an exit velo of 110 off the hack measured by hit trax is the same whether it's from a D1 or D2 player.
It's not always great to be hear, but there are levels to college baseball. Starting with the SEC and working your way down to Cal Tech. D2 is a tier or two below the highest levels. Now there is nothing wrong with that, and there are exceptions but generally speaking it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that D2 is not the highest level of baseball. There aren't less pro prospects than D1 and JC baseball because "they play D2", there are less pro players coming out of D2 baseball because there is less pro talent at that level.
Teams have workouts, scouts talk and follow talent. Do you just have combines for every D2/3 team because there may be some hidden talent somewhere in there?
Things like exit velo, bat speed and hit trax are all useless if you can't hit pro pitching. Telling me how far or how hard you can hit a ball doesn't mean squat if you can't piece up 95 on a daily basis. When you go to a non D1 school, or even a lower level D1 school you have less chances to prove you can keep up with the pitching, and while there are some misses for sure, pro baseball can live without them. To be a pro player you need to hit, and you need to hit at a high level often in order to advance. So if conference play isn't getting it done, you need to do damage in a top summer league
@Francis7 posted:Thinking about this some more.
Totally agree that 95 is 95 whether it's D1 or D2 and that's why you see D2 pitchers go pro.
That said, with the advanced metrics and devices available today, measuring things like bat speed, exit velo, etc., if we ever get to the day where MLB starts doing combines, maybe more D2 position players will have more interest from the big league teams? Just like 95 is 95, an exit velo of 110 off the hack measured by hit trax is the same whether it's from a D1 or D2 player.
Yeah definitely, i think with trackman a truly outstanding game EV might get you noticed.
However you still need to hit the ball and a high EV against 85 might not translate.
But if the EV is really plus plus (115+) and comes with performance, a good swing and approach it might get you noticed.
I wonder how the shorter draft and smaller milb will influence that. I guess less "org guys" will be needed in the future and it will be even harder for non top d1 conference guys and lower divisions.
Question will the MLB miss the Pete Rose in the future? To scout a future Pete Rose will require pro scout with FBI talent.
Bob
@Consultant posted:Question will the MLB miss the Pete Rose in the future? To scout a future Pete Rose will require pro scout with FBI talent.
Bob
How about Hall of Fame Yogi Berra? Listed at 5-7, probably five six. Bad body. Of course, he was before the draft. But, today, would he play college ball? Ever get drafted? But, he could hit. And a baseball IQ off the charts.
@Dominik85 posted:I wonder how the shorter draft and smaller milb will influence that. I guess less "org guys" will be needed in the future and it will be even harder for non top d1 conference guys and lower divisions.
That is probably the plan. Shame because some of those fringe organizational guys become good future coaches.
Scouts are always looking for talent. It's their job to find it before someone else does.
Things are changing, be patient.
FWIW, my son's Cardinal teammate attended a D2. You can Google him or go to wkipedia, see Matt Adams aka Big City.
@PABaseball posted:When you go to a non D1 school, or even a lower level D1 school you have less chances to prove you can keep up with the pitching, So if conference play isn't getting it done, you need to do damage in a top summer league.
Totally agree PA Baseball.
@Francis7 posted:How about Hall of Fame Yogi Berra? Listed at 5-7, probably five six. Bad body. Of course, he was before the draft. But, today, would he play college ball? Ever get drafted? But, he could hit. And a baseball IQ off the charts.
You have to compare athletes against their contemporaries. Nutrition changes over time, workout routines change... They don't smoke in the dugout anymore or drink in the locker room. But if Yogi Berra was around today, maybe he has better nutrition and workout routine and is 5'-9" and looks and plays a lot like Pudge Rodriguez and ends up in the HOF.
Height/size is a disadvantage, but a skilled hitter with plus fielding skills will still get looks. Nick Madrigal is doing well in the modern era of recruiting. I am sure there are other examples.
