joes87 posted:In the end all you can do is control what you can control and let the process play out. If you attempt to put some sense to why certain kids are committing and others are not you will end up insane.
this was just to accurate and logical to not repost.
mdschert posted:2020dad posted:So much here... 90>87. Period. But the good news is both will probably make it. Regardless of the nay sayers you simply have to do a little independent research and you will see D1 is littered with guys who topped 87 in high school. So if you are throwing 87 with good command you are a D1 prospect. Just maybe not a Sunday pitcher at a power 5!
Tall is an advantage. This topic has been the proverbial dead horse around here so I will leave it at that.
FYI from a previous conversation on here I learned MLB pitchers throw about 41% strikes. Trick is making your pitches close enough for a swing but not easily hit. So command is essential - high strike percentage is bad as others have eluded to.
Finally I am going to carefully read the stuff from Kyle - thanks for posting!
FYI, Clayton Kershaw has a 69% strike ratio.
don't confuse Zone percentage and strike percentage. Zone percentage in MLB is under 50% but strike percentage is like 60% or so. even MLB hitters swing at 30% of the balls or so on average, you just have to throw them Close enough to the Zone.
the batter has to decide when the ball is a Little past halfway so even the best guys can't decide between a pitch on the black and an ball 2 inches off the plate (last year the leader with the lowest outside the Zone swing percentage still swung at 20% of the balls thrown).
but if a ball is a foot off the plate even the wildest hackers likely won't swing most of the time.
mdschert posted:2020dad posted:So much here... 90>87. Period. But the good news is both will probably make it. Regardless of the nay sayers you simply have to do a little independent research and you will see D1 is littered with guys who topped 87 in high school. So if you are throwing 87 with good command you are a D1 prospect. Just maybe not a Sunday pitcher at a power 5!
Tall is an advantage. This topic has been the proverbial dead horse around here so I will leave it at that.
FYI from a previous conversation on here I learned MLB pitchers throw about 41% strikes. Trick is making your pitches close enough for a swing but not easily hit. So command is essential - high strike percentage is bad as others have eluded to.
Finally I am going to carefully read the stuff from Kyle - thanks for posting!
FYI, Clayton Kershaw has a 69% strike ratio.
Sorry, I should clarify that. The number I was referencing was the percentage of balls actually thrown in the strike zone. I am assuming the number you are quoting counts all strikes, like if they swing and miss on a ball away. So yes there are always going to be more strikes than just those actually thrown in the zone. And that is the trick to get them to swing at balls that are just outside the zone. And of course 41% is the average there will be outliars in both directions.
2020dad posted:mdschert posted:2020dad posted:So much here... 90>87. Period. But the good news is both will probably make it. Regardless of the nay sayers you simply have to do a little independent research and you will see D1 is littered with guys who topped 87 in high school. So if you are throwing 87 with good command you are a D1 prospect. Just maybe not a Sunday pitcher at a power 5!
Tall is an advantage. This topic has been the proverbial dead horse around here so I will leave it at that.
FYI from a previous conversation on here I learned MLB pitchers throw about 41% strikes. Trick is making your pitches close enough for a swing but not easily hit. So command is essential - high strike percentage is bad as others have eluded to.
Finally I am going to carefully read the stuff from Kyle - thanks for posting!
FYI, Clayton Kershaw has a 69% strike ratio.
Sorry, I should clarify that. The number I was referencing was the percentage of balls actually thrown in the strike zone. I am assuming the number you are quoting counts all strikes, like if they swing and miss on a ball away. So yes there are always going to be more strikes than just those actually thrown in the zone. And that is the trick to get them to swing at balls that are just outside the zone. And of course 41% is the average there will be outliars in both directions.
last year the Zone percentage of the league was 45% in MLB. strike percentage was around 60%.
I've read most of what's been posted in this thread but did gloss over some of it, so if I re post something that's been covered forgive me.
Here at the end of the trip through YB and the recruiting process I'll add my .02.
In a pitcher I'm not sure which garners the most interest, a righty with velo or being a lefty. I've seen both that I thought were average pitchers get more interest over slower, right handed pitchers who had better results on the mound. I do believe if one were a lefty throwing 94 you could throw the ball over the backstop most pitches and still get interest.
To velo. The kid has always told me it's not necessarily the speed of a pitchers fastball but movement. Hell the kid prefers pitchers who can bring it. When he's struggled he's complained the pitchers FB had a lot of movement to it.
I watched a kid while in AZ this weekend who sat in the low 90's. He was on the mound against a 2018 team (we were playing in the upperclass tournament). I could count on one hand the number of pitches he threw that weren't a FB. I think he only gave up one run over six innings. Lots of scouts there. Thing is the other team didn't have any trouble putting the bat on the ball. And about the "effort" thing. No small amount of the time he had to pick his hat up off the ground after a pitch.
On the other hand there was my kid. Threw two small bullpen sessions before going. Came in vs the team that ended up being runner up. Was brought in middle 2nd after they had put up 6 runs. Pretty well shut them down for the 3 1/3 innings he pitched. Did give up twp runs but due to a missed played GB thrown in the dirt. Team had one hard hit against him. Can throw a CU, CB, and slider for strikes. Hit 87 and no one could have cared less. They did however take notice of the 400'+ HR he had, LOL.
Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
You are probably right but your question was what is more attractive to the college/RC ... you can't ignore the fact that most of them think they can get the 50/90 guy to become a 60+ 90+ guy. All expect the HS prospect P to be stronger and more refined by the time they take the mound in a real game for their college.
you don't get it, if he stays 50% they will just cut him....recruit 25, get 12, keep 5...simple math!
cabbagedad posted:mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
You are probably right but your question was what is more attractive to the college/RC ... you can't ignore the fact that most of them think they can get the 50/90 guy to become a 60+ 90+ guy. All expect the HS prospect P to be stronger and more refined by the time they take the mound in a real game for their college.
I think the odds are higher for the 87 mph pitcher to reach 90 mph than for the 90 mph to reach 65% S%. I have yet to see a wild pitcher suddenly have command but have seen pitchers go from 87 to 90.
mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
Well mlb pitchers only throw 45 percent in the zone and 60 percent overall strikes, so 50 percent is not that far off.
mdschert posted:cabbagedad posted:mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
You are probably right but your question was what is more attractive to the college/RC ... you can't ignore the fact that most of them think they can get the 50/90 guy to become a 60+ 90+ guy. All expect the HS prospect P to be stronger and more refined by the time they take the mound in a real game for their college.
I think the odds are higher for the 87 mph pitcher to reach 90 mph than for the 90 mph to reach 65% S%. I have yet to see a wild pitcher suddenly have command but have seen pitchers go from 87 to 90.
Fair point. But you still aren't giving equal credit to the 90 also improving his velo. And, I'm not sure he would be classified as "wild" even if he were to have modest improvement with control.
Always an interesting discussion. The answer, though, is never as simple as the number comparison we are talking about. Each individual will display mechanics, effort, size and strength projectibility, demeanor, game intelligence, work ethic, specific potential "fixes" and a host of other things that will all factor in to what the RC thinks his college ceiling may be for velo AND control.
Dominik85 posted:mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
Well mlb pitchers only throw 45 percent in the zone and 60 percent overall strikes, so 50 percent is not that far off.
87 to 90 is not far off either. So doing the math a 50% overall S% pitcher is throwing about 35% in the zone. Have you ever seen a wild pitcher suddenly have command? I think it is easier to get a pitcher from 87 to 90 than it is for one to go 50% S% to 65% S%
One last point, Bartolo Colon won 15 mlb games last season with a 68% S% and throws an 87 mph fastball.
"I have yet to see a wild pitcher suddenly have command but have seen pitchers go from 87 to 90."
You need to get out more. This happens all the time.
Personally, I believe that sound mechanics enhance both velocity and command. A kid who is already showing a live arm often just needs to fix his delivery in order to pound the zone.
I've also seen conditioning work help with great frequency. If a player is tiring after 70 pitches, he can be off 1/8" in his kick position, which makes him off 1/2" in his release angle, which makes him off by 12" at the plate. Build up the core and lower body support muscles and those problems go away, while the live arm is still there.
Not every live arm gets fixed, and for that matter, lots of players with natural talent lack the work ethic or the mindset to prepare fully and then compete even when the going gets tough. Some guys are really good at avoiding the strike zone for fear of giving up hits.
And yes, guys also gain in velo over time. I see that all the time, too.
But the guy who throws harder is typically the higher prospect because the upside is higher if you can fix him. And high level coaches typically have a lot of confidence in their ability to teach. (Even those who aren't really good at it, have that confidence anyway!)
mdschert posted:cabbagedad posted:mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
You are probably right but your question was what is more attractive to the college/RC ... you can't ignore the fact that most of them think they can get the 50/90 guy to become a 60+ 90+ guy. All expect the HS prospect P to be stronger and more refined by the time they take the mound in a real game for their college.
I think the odds are higher for the 87 mph pitcher to reach 90 mph than for the 90 mph to reach 65% S%. I have yet to see a wild pitcher suddenly have command but have seen pitchers go from 87 to 90.
Sandy Koufax? more recently Curt Schilling.
Randy Johnson. Big time.
old_school posted:you don't get it, if he stays 50% they will just cut him....recruit 25, get 12, keep 5...simple math!
This is it. Only half the recruits have to succeed to be a successful recruiting season.
mdschert posted:cabbagedad posted:mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
You are probably right but your question was what is more attractive to the college/RC ... you can't ignore the fact that most of them think they can get the 50/90 guy to become a 60+ 90+ guy. All expect the HS prospect P to be stronger and more refined by the time they take the mound in a real game for their college.
I think the odds are higher for the 87 mph pitcher to reach 90 mph than for the 90 mph to reach 65% S%. I have yet to see a wild pitcher suddenly have command but have seen pitchers go from 87 to 90.
A kid who throws 92/93 can often gain control by being brought down to 90. With the 87 pitcher you're gambling he gets to 90. Half of recruits fail to earn time on the field. I would rather be teaching control than velocity. Control is likely to be a mechanics or mental issue. Velocity is often a physical limitation.
mdschert posted:Dominik85 posted:mdschert posted:Ok so it seems the consensus is that coaches would prefer the 50% S% 90 mph player over the 65% S% 87 mph player. I would bet my house payment that the 87 mph pitcher would beat the 90 mph player 8 out of 10 games. I have never seen a 50% S% pitcher be successful.
Well mlb pitchers only throw 45 percent in the zone and 60 percent overall strikes, so 50 percent is not that far off.
87 to 90 is not far off either. So doing the math a 50% overall S% pitcher is throwing about 35% in the zone. Have you ever seen a wild pitcher suddenly have command? I think it is easier to get a pitcher from 87 to 90 than it is for one to go 50% S% to 65% S%
The discussion is about college prospect recruits not MLB pitchers. Colon got to MLB throwing much harder. He used to cruise mid 90's and sometimes hit 100. He gets by now on savvy and experience a college recruit does not have.
mdschert postedI think the odds are higher for the 87 mph pitcher to reach 90 mph than for the 90 mph to reach 65% S%. I have yet to see a wild pitcher suddenly have command but have seen pitchers go from 87 to 90.
My understanding reading on the subject over the years is, at the higher levels, the thinking is you can teach control, you can't teach 95.
