Why causes PG rankings to rise and fall?

Unless a mistake was made there is always a reason why players might move up or down.  Actually moving down happens a lot.  This is because we continue to see many players and as we see them we may have reason to either enter them in the rankings or move them up.  So seldom is a player actually considered a lesser prospect, it's just that someone else has moved up thus every player below that will automatically move down.  The rankings are constantly studied and sometimes we decide a player we overlooked earlier should be ranked nuch higher.

Without knowing who the two players are, it is impossible to address what our change in the rankings was based on.  I can only say that there is always a reason, even if the reason is simply the fact that we made a mistake earlier.  Changes take place often, but full updates happen about once each month.  When that happens and we rank a player at a certain number, we don't necessarily compare that to his previous ranking.  Also using   The 2015 class as an example... We know there will be some new players entering the top 100.  We don't know who they are at this time, but it happens every single year.  Depending on where that new entry is ranked, all those at that spot previously or on down will move down.  We still consider that player the same level of prospect as before, but he moves down a notch in the actual rankings.

I think those that follow this stuff closely consider the PG rankings the first ones released, the most accurate and the most copied.  Check it out... Pretty much the same names in a different order.  Still I would be the first one to tell people there is nothing exact about rankings.  The best prospects don't always turn out to be the best players or pitchers.

I agree with this paragraph entirely.  The description "best prospect" is relative and highly subjective.  I wouldn't want to disclose the names of kids and I'm 100% the father of my son's friend wouldn't want that either. Last night I was looking at the rankings within this kid's position.  What I saw kids who were kids rated higher who played in a major event or weren't named to anymore than 1 All Tournament team. 

Don't get me wrong.  I love what Perfect Game has done for high school baseball.  More importantly, it's a fantastic group of people from the people who answer your phones all the way to the tournament directors.  I just think you tend to hype certain kids and allow a little too much subjectivity into the rankings.  The reason so many don't seem to achieve their full potential based on their ranking is that their ranking may have overstated their true talents.  

The kid I'm thinking about had a fantastic WWBA, top 20 in exit velos,extra base hits and all tourney (in Jup and many times prior) but yet he fell in the rankings.  Kids who moved ahead within the same position didn't play in a tournament since the summer but yet catapulted him.  Raking in a local non-covered tournament isn't the same as the big PG tourneys.  I imagine that was the reason for the rating boost though.

I get it's a tall order to assemble this.  Just wondered what criteria is applied.  This is baseball so the answers aren't always neat and tidy. Thanks for your response as always!

Sounds like committing to a college to play baseball is given additional weighted score by PG.  It certainly makes PG look good having highly ranked players committed to colleges. 

Because isn't the primary purpose of PG to get college exposure to kids?

seems reasonable,   but if the teammate is sitting on multiple offers from top programs but hasnt made a decision yet I would think it shouldnt matter.   PG may not have a way of knowing that though.  

Thought the reason for PG was for the players who felt they had the talent to make it to the MLB. During the recruiting process this past summer. We were asked by many D1 coaches

" do you really need to go to WWBA " lol 

Maybe I am reading this wrong, but your Post seems a bit snarky.  Why?  PG has helped a lot of kids gain the experience & exposure to help them move forward with their baseball dreams.  I don't totally agree with the rankings, but I do know that the intent with PG is to help. 

Not at all. But I was perplexed when the subject of the WWBA championships was brought  up in conversation with the Head coaches at the D1 schools. It's like they felt a player would get more exposure to MLB scouts. They wanted the recruited player to come play at the college and not the minor leagues. The recruiting process started after attending a PG event. If it wasn't for Perfect Game USA my son would not have been found. 

I don't get the point of this thread.  Is it that rankings are not supposed to change?  Is it not obvious that rankings are relative to all other players, so if one player's rank changes it can, as a consequence, affect many others in ways that are too complex to spell out in a short "blurb"?  Is it that they aren't supposed to be subjective and there should be some algorithm that spells everything out?  Is it not apparent that there are lots of tournaments and showcases going on all the time that many players attend, but at the same time there are many, many more players that are not actively showcasing at a particular time, and as a consequence a players rank can change when he is doing nothing?  Frankly, for me, the "rating" is far more important because it doesn't depend on anything other than the player's talent.

The point of the post was pretty clear.  Of course players ranking will change.  We all know and expect it.  When a player does something against the best competition in the country, you would think that players rank would rise.  Right?  If a player hasn't played since July (at a PG) and they move well ahead of the player who is active, how is that explained? I think it is as simple as the commitment the player made to the big school. 

I looked at another kid who was moved way, way up and he's been selected to All Tourney in only one instance and it was a small regional PG tourney.  His video has him booting the ball 4 of the 7 attempts in the fielding video, slow velos for IF and OF and an average 60 time.  It looked like he launched some in BP but he popped up 4 of the 10.  My point and the point of the post is that there are clearly factors which don't take into account relative competition and tournament performance.  That is why the PG rankings surprise to the upside and downside when you see the player at the next level. 

Good question by the OP and it was clear to me as to why he asked it. I'm sure some Boolean code is entered into WOPR along with scouting notes and assessments ultimately determining the rankings.

I've heard everything from the PG site and rankings/scouting notes are a great resource to, I never look at them and only use the site as a database. I like the way they cover the sport and the kids, it's unmatched. I do however, feel that kids who are consistent attendees (Kid A) to PG showcases get more pub than kids (Kid B) who don't. If the response is....we don't see kid B as much, i think that is logical but a bit of a cop out. Good players who perform are good players who perform. I'm sure my kid will drop as he hasnt played since Jupiter and some of the new Top 100's will cause him to lose some ranking. He has more determination based on many other motivators than a PG rating so i don't think it'll be the EOTW for him.  

You know I believe this is a topic every year on this site. I think a search would bring up some of those.

Please, don't try to figure out how we might favor one player over another or base our decisions on anything other than what we believe. We didn't get our reputation by playing politics. Yet we do make mistakes at times.

I will say the same thing I have said over and over when this topic is brought up. This time of year it always creates controversy.  Once it gets to June, everyone gets real quite about this subject.  Wait until the draft and check the rankings for accuracy.

If you don't want to wait that long simply go search for past years rankings and see how they looked for accuracy.

BTW, how many PG events or tournaments you attend has absolutely no bearing on the rankings.  It is all based on what we see and think.  We have had players ranked very high that never attended a PG event.  But keep in mind that about 85% of all players drafted have in fact attended a PG event.  Maybe that is why people think we are favoring those players.  It is because for many years the vast majority of the best prospects in the country have also attended PG events. We don't have to look very far to see the best when every year the first round is coming to us.

I probably get three or four emails a day fropm someone complaining about the rankings.  When we start getting that from MLB scouts or college coaches rather than a players parents it will be more alarming. I would say that nearly 100% of the complaints are coming from a parent.  Always there is the comparisons with other players they know.  Not sure we could even do this if all we did was listen to the parents.

Once again I would be more than happy to check on the reasoning behind any player ranking. Can't do it, when I don't know what or who we are talking about. Also I know we have and will continue to make a mistake here and there.  So maybe we made a mistake and if so, we would like someone to tell us.  Just bringing it up on an open forum and speculating what and why we do things gets frustrating.  If you think we are wrong please contact us.  We want to be as accurate as possible.

When I see a kid that has scored or been ranked higher than I thought his talent should earn, I just assume he had a good outing and showed somebody something they liked. I have also been impressed on how a player has developed in a year since I saw him and then I realize how he fetched such marks.

I look forward to every update, now I'M waiting on the 2017s to be posted.

I don't have a dog in this fight but.....

I don't think that people really understand the rankings. Maybe I don't either.  I have always thought that it was based upon future ability not present performance where they stand among their peers unless they turned quite a few heads for one reason or another.  

A pitcher that had an awesome game may not be ranked as high as the guy who didn't do as well but threw mid 90's.  Or maybe that hitter booted the ball a few times but he has the ability to hit for power. We are not in the scouting biz so who are we to decide and I am sure that we use different criteria.

Good advice wait until the draft, these guys are pretty accurate. 

WWBA is great for college and for pro exposure, the player has to decide which is important for him. Timing is everything.  

I believe that once a player signs his NLI most college coaches prefer that they not look to be drafted, but they do understand this is the process and how it works.

@Shovel4k some points I am sure many share

@PG Staff, you have a difficult job. 

I would say most every poster on this site has a really good to really great player for a son, some that we will see on TV in a few years.

And all know players ranked ahead of their son who has been outperformed by their son in various venues, events, in high school games or tournaments.

Like many here, our son was lucky enough to be invited to register with the MLB Bureau this spring, fill out questionnaires, and to attend professional invite camps, an Area Code Invite camp, has hit for scouts & invited to pro workouts this August through January.

Some players ahead of him on PG were not invited to these,

although they live in the same tri-state area.

Others ahead of him on PG that did also attend some of those things did not do so well.

None of those were PG events so to expect PG to know our son was written up or made top lists (if publicized or shared with us by a scout, from pop time to shuttle to medicine ball to Bat exit velo to an extra BP round, etc.) at them would be unrealistic of us.

Many of your sons teams also played in CABA, Premier, Under Armour, ECTB, Blue Chips Tourneys, etc. over the last few years (most on the same dates as PG events)and he hit .400,.500 or .600 . Those are not PG events so they wouldn't know how well he did.

You see Top 1000 players drafted and much higher players in the Top 500 or higher never get drafted. It seems to not be an exact science. 

Until there is an aggregate site that pools all this information from many events/organizations there will be these conversations.

I would say PG has a really tough job, everyone here on HSBBW is probably more savvy than the general public and these questions are posted.

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That "believe, see and think" formula must be the same formula that promotions are based upon where I work.  

I trust them.

And for what it's worth, JP, a 2016, dropped three places ... even though he committed to a major D1 right before the update. So I doubt that factors in TOO much. The thing I believe that drove the move is simple: He's not done anything to move the needle either way since Jupiter (after which, he moved way up). Other 2016's have -- at several PG events. 

But I'm sure, depending on how he performs relative to others at the PG National Showcase in June ... he'll move again, one way or the other.

Seems simple to me.

It's obvious to me now the value of PG events based upon many successful stories of kids whose baseball scholarships were due to PG events.  

However how much is the PG ranking of a player influence a college coach versus the coach actually witnessing the abilities of the player himself.

IOW, is the ultimate value of PG the venue to bring a lot of talent in one place for college coaches to gravitate to?  

Did you ever stop to think that a coach might call PG for an opinion?  I am not saying that a coach offering a hefty scholarship should not go see the player, but in this business much is based on who you know and what someone thinks about you as a person as well as your ability.  College coaches that really know how to recruit have eyes on players everywhere, and I know that includes PG's opinion as well.

Absolutely I am going to send my son to a place where he can be seen by many many people, not just coaches but scouts and cross checkers and agents, etc.  Of course I am going to be realistic in my expectations and perhaps this venue will be of no value to my player at all. But that would be my choice.  

There are many stories of players never really ranked that high that have made names for themselves at these larger events, as I am sure that there are many that caught a coaches eye who never saw that player before. Those are the great stories that come out of events like this one. For a junior the event maybe different for a senior ready to sign, its about different things to different folks. You all are so lucky that you have these venues and opportunities available to your sons, but keep in mind that if you make this your obsession (reading and comparing rankings of players or yours) you might never be happy.

But the discussion is about dropping lower and or going higher, and I am sure that there are a lot of things that happen this time of year (as stated by Jerry Ford) and that it all falls into place by the draft.  It really does.

JMO

We sat in the coach's office of a major D1 between our son's freshman and sophomore year, and he said, "We don't look at PG scores."

To be honest, I didn't think that was an absolute ... but what he said next certainly was: "We base all of our recruiting decisions on what we see. Period."

But here's the thing: We were in that office because they'd seen my son at a PG event. My takeaway -- tournaments, because they're highly scouted, matter more than the score.

That said, I believe college coaches generally view PG as THE most highly credible HS talent-gathering program out there. AND ... given that they loudly promote things like what I've pasted below, they see PG as credible in college assessments, too.