WHY NUMBERS MEAN NOTHING

Thank you for these thoughts.

Last night my son was on the mound for his high school team. They are one of the worst teams in the area. There were two college scouts sitting behind the backstop watching. In the first inning a fly ball was hit to the left fielder, he stood there and watched it land next to him, tried twice to pick it up, runner made it to second. A single to the same kid, he runs past the ball, back to the ball, misses the ball then holds the ball, three runs in on a simple single turned into a double. Another fly ball to the right fielder. He runs in, left, right, circles around a few times and the ball lands where he started. Catcher can't catch the ball, runners picked off bases. It was worse than a tee ball game.

I can only hope that the scouts saw the quality of pitches my son made. He kept his cool thru all of it for the most part. I think only we picked up his frustration.

Ahhh, the wisdom & truth of your statement!!
My son has been in this kind of scenario a couple times this season. He does get frustrated with the lack of defense, but has managed to keep his focus on his job & let the other stuff role off.

Some great resources for him have been "The Mental ABC'S of Pitching" & "Focused Baseball" program. He's used both for several years now & has developed a different mental approach.

Bags, I just had a scout tell me last night how imortant it is to see how a kid handles adversity. If a player has talent, obviously the scout already knows or suspects this or he wouldn't be there scouting. What often makes the difference is how they handle things when the chips are down. Those other kids may just have given your son a perfect opportunity!!

Thanks for all the kind words of support. I will share them with my son.

We all just keep counting down the days til summer ball where REAL baseball is played!

My son is learning to handle adversity as well. When he gets the start our team scores only 1 or 2 runs(half his).We have gaping holes in our defense and he tries to be too fine sometimes as a result. He pitches well and gets his hits but never gets run support. I watch his body language and have only seen him falter once this season. I tell him to throw strikes and battle hard and hopefully better days are ahead.
It is hard as a parent of a pitcher to watch. I know it is hard for him to go to the bump facing only the best teams on our schedule knowing he has no help. It is some comfort to know that scouts look beyond the stats for HS pitchers.

My son has pitched in both types of games this year. You win as a team and lose as a team. This past monday in the rain his team beat the 3rd ranked team in the state and the team played outstanding. As you stated TR, the pitcher has to throw strikes and let the defense do the rest for him. And if mistakes are made, so be it. There are days the pitcher carries the team and there are days that the team picks up the pitcher.

Jazzman, That is very true. My son has played as a position player and a pitcher. My comments on how a player handles himself are really meant for both. I know first hand that the position player usually feels terrible if he makes a mistake - feeling he has let his pitcher and team down.

How a player handles himself, regardless of where he plays, IMO, demonstrates character and the ability to play at a higher level. This is the type of player TR was talking about. A player that handles adversity/challenge certainly doesn't need to point out any one else's weakness-that wouldn't exactly be "handling" the challenge.

Sunbkd - I think scouts/coaches look beyond the stats for all players - position and pitchers. That is a good thing for many kids - not so good for some!

lafmom

It is not a matter of thinking that coaches look beyond that stats--it is a PURE FACT--as I said I was with a few college coaches at the game and they all could have cared less about the score---they knew what the kid was doing on the mound

To all players--play to the best of your ability and do not worry about others--you cannot control what others do behind you--you hear that MOM and DAD

In my eyes at least this kid yesterday did more to help himself in this losing performance than if he had thrown a shutout--- in the shutout we, perhaps, would not have seen the qualities that he showed in the losing performance

TR - I understand completely. That is exactly what the scout was telling me last night. That's why Bag's son had a perfect opportunity to show what he's made of.

We have a really good #1 pitcher. One of his first appearances this year, he had a homerun hit off of him very early in the game. Tons of scouts/coaches there. I said at that moment - that was a great thing to happen to him. Gave him a great chance to show what he was made of (which is good stuff!)

The best feedback from coaches and scouts came when my son lost a game, not won.
I would rather my son have to struggle a bit and show how he could handle game situations than breeze through a game. So many really good pitchers are faced with easy games to keep their ERA down, boost their SO.
Same goes for hitters, the best time to show off your stuff is when you are 3-2 in the count, facing a very good pitcher and you keeping battling away. JMO

While its true that "numbers" are not the most important factor in recruiting or scouting high school players, they do mean something when they acurately reflect a player's ability to perform in game situations. A player with a high school BA below .300 will probably not be recruited by a top 20 D1 or drafted in the first 5 rounds. Of course there are exceptions, but they are rare.

By the time a player is a college junior "numbers" are very important and will definately impact play time and draft status. In the minors stats play into every placement decision and in the majors "numbers" mean everything.

quote:

By the time a player is a college junior "numbers" are very important and will definately impact play time and draft status.

Unfortunately those are very true words.

FrankF you have a PM.

Though I'm 43 and no longer the pitcher (my son is a 14 yr old freshman RHP), I was the one to learn the lessons about a month ago.....my son already knew the answer. I lost my composure aftera a bad outing - worrying about this and that, how it would damage him for life and such nonsense -- but my son never seemed at all shaken by his rough outing.

So people on this forum had to teach ME how to react to such times. I learned a lot - I was mentored - it was cool. And on we went......

In his next outing, the kid did fine and so did I. In a more recent outing, our big lefty junior (hi-level D1 material and being actively scouted) had a bad game. We were playing a Korean team and those kids can play. They got to the big guy, rattled him a bit, he walked a bunch, he got hit. He held his composure. He knows he's good. We all know he's good. And he graciously left the game when the coaches decided it was time to take him out in the 5th.

And who do they put in against this Korean juggernaut of a team? My 14 yr old freshman son. He looked like a little weed out on the mound compared to these guys. But he's unfazed. He's so much more 'mature' than me. He strikes out the first batter (bases loaded and we're up by one by the way), and gets the last two to ground out with out #2 a play at the plate where we got the runner. And that was the game.

The point is that I, as a parent, had only been focusing on the qualities of each pitch (adding up to 'The Numbers') and had totally missed the fact that my son has evolved into a hard-nosed kid who is not intimidated and actually thrives on the David-vs-Goliath thing. I have learned a lot from him.

(PG, we'll be at the South Underclass - if your crew sees a weed growing out near the mound, just let it pitch!! )

The hardest thing about being a team player is that the team can fall apart around you - the best part about being a team player is the team can hold you up when you fall apart.

You win and lose as a team.

Curious Bagsbaseball - if your team is one of the worst in the area how did they manage to lure two scouts out to look at their players?

probably the opponent

To AParent,
My son plays on a very competative summer team. Last summer there were scouts at several of our tournaments and he peaked some interest. At least that is what the coach has told us. Why these guys were there, I don't know. They are from a local community college, or at least that is what their shirts said. Once he quit pitching, they packed up and left so my guess is they were there to see him.

He is an 06 grad so right now is a hard time. He gets lots of letters, but who knows how serious any of them are. A couple of DI schools in the state seem pretty interested and have told him they will see him a lot this summer.

My hope is that what everyone says is true. A good coach or scout looks at what the player does and not the team.

bags

you can take it to the bank--- coaches see the player not the team

Stats are be usefull but not tell the true story. One story I always use when I was coaching travel ball I had a kid go hitless in five at bats. His father was so mad at him. I told him calm calm down. I explained how his son help account for all five runs. In three at bats he moves runners from second to third and the other two hit hit ground outs that scores run. I consider that a rather great day. The light buld went on for the father and the kid went on to play in the CWS.

I have one HS player who just got a scholarship to a major D1 school. His numbers this year? he is 3-5 on the mound and hitting over .400. He is being looked at as a pitcher. His numbers are decieving because his team doesnt always make the plays behind him. The college was there watching one of his game after they already offered. The next day the school wrote him how impressed they were by him. They went to watch how he prepared before the game not to see him pitch. They were also impressed how he handles himself when his defense let him down. Another game, a freshman is on hill and is struggling. The player, now at SS, calls TO and goes to the mound and talks the to the freshman pitcher. The freshman smiles and the ss goes back to his spot. The pitcher then get the next batter out on three pitches. The colleges coach said his action spoke loudly and gave them the belief they recruited the right kid.

Huh? You picked a strange example to prove "numbers mean nothing".
The kid's ERA is going to be 0.00, which tells the story you think should be told in this case.

Numbers almost always tell the story in baseball. It's just looking at the right ones.

Numbers or stats, philly? The numbers (of runs) in that game told a losing story for the team, but a quality effort by the pitcher. So the numbers meant nothing. Were recruiters to only look for winning teams, the kid might never get a look.

Then there are the stats. TR said the runs were unearned, and had he been keeping the book, the pitcher's ERA would have been zip. One of the frequently-discussed problems here is that the hs book can be very unreliable; perhpas the scorekeeper didn't count the E's as E's so that again, numbers mean nothing.

UMMM, stats are numbers.

I'm pretty sure 'recruiters' know how to interpret stats.

I know if I was recruiter, I'd be impressed by the low ERA , but I'd be a little concerned that the ball was being put into play so frequently. Not an absolute, but you should be striking guys out in HS.

phillyfan

Takes three pitches for a k

Takes one pitch for a ground out or fly out

Most HS pitchers do not get a lot of K's

Rather have my pitchers get ground outs or floy out-- less pitches involved

Almost all REAL good HS pitchers get a lot of K's.
Any pitcher will find if he can develop an out pitch to add 3-4 k's per game, his chances of success improve greatly.

3 things can happen when the ball is put into into play and 2 of em ain't good.

It'd be nice if you can guarantee those fly balls and grounders would go right to fielders. Unfortunately, you can't.

How many times have I seen pitchers get burnt on 'S**t hits'? Too many.

philly

If a HS team has more than one REAL GOOD pitcher they are in heaven

How many good hitters in the lineup ? 3 or 4 most?

I would agree with those that say they often don’t reveal the whole story but to say unequivocally that stats and numbers in baseball mean nothing is absurd.

If they mean nothing than why keep them?

If they mean nothing, why do coaches ask about them and showcases provide them?

Phillyfan, I don’t think you’d get many scouts to disagree with you on the strikeouts per inning ratio important in order to see if the pitcher might have good stuff.

Stats mean a lot to a lot of people (parents, players, fans, newspapers, etc) but I don't think a player's futrue hindges on stats. GOOD players will almost always have good stats...but good stats don’t always indicate a good player. Therefore I am convinced that most recruiters and scouts ignore them. My son was recruited by a number of D-1 schools; some as a pitcher and some as a catcher/hitter. He was also scouted and drafted in the 5th round out of HS. Since I was the official scorekeeper for his high school team and his summer team I can tell you no coach or scout asked for his stats. Thank goodness because he was being recruited as a power hitter and only hit 3 HR his senior year. They may have known what his stats were from some newspaper articles but the newspaper articles weren’t always accurate. Only after he committed to a college did I start getting calls from the media wanting to know what his high school stats were. In many cases they weren’t aware I was the father. I asked how they got my name. Seems as if they contacted the public relations office of the college, they were referred to his high school coach, and the high school coach gave them my name and number. I can admit now that I fudged a few times with the stats...(for his teammates of course)
Fungo

Fungo,

Very true that once a player is discovered his stats are of very little interest. However, for some unknown players, stats can stimulate interest.

College recruiters and pro scouts do not rely on stats. That said… stats can create interest which could cause action but all alone stats won't get a player to the next level.

If I hear someone is striking out 2 hitters an inning, I want to see him. If someone has hit 15 homeruns in 20 games, I want to see him. After seeing him, I don't care about the stats any longer.

There are some stats that are much more meaningful than others. Taking into account level of play of course.

For me the best pitchers will have good Strikeout numbers, low Walk numbers, and low Hit numbers. If his stats are (opposite of those above) the pitcher will probably not create much interest. ERA, W-L, are nice stats to have, but too unreliable. Besides the pitchers who have high K totals, low walk totals and low hits totals will also have low era and decent W-L record except in rare cases. Having good ERA and W-L record doesn’t necessarily mean the other stats are great.

For hitters Home runs, Extra Base hits, and low Strike Out totals are more meaningful than Batting Average. If a recruiter or scout sees a high HR total, he’s likely to next check the home park distances and the competition level. If he has lots of extra bases, especially triples you can guess the player has some power and can run a bit. Batting Average, RBI, are nice stats, but too unreliable.

In other words, the stats that mean the most are those that really don’t rely on a scorekeeper. Scoring errors that are hits or vice versa changes Batting averages, RBI and ERAs.

In all cases stats will at best tell you how good a player is at his present level. Recruiters and scouts will base their opinions on how they think the player will perform at the next level.

By the way, best of luck to your son, Fungo. Maybe we'll be lucky enough to see him play across the street from us soon.

Fungo,
For shame. I can only hope that the great scorekeeper in the sky will be merciful to you.

Keep in mind I am not talking stats here---what I am talking about is seeing a kid down 5-3 but the score does not give any indication as to how he pitched. No different for a kid who hits the ball on a line drive every at bat but the ball ends up in a fielders glove---

PG covered this topic in its entirity with 1 statement-stats tell you how player is performing now. Scouts must guess/project how he will perform at next level.
I have followed pretty closely the better pitchers in Chicagoland and the only stat that must stand out to get mlb looks is the 2 #'s on the stalker. Good stats can however get a pitcher some college looks.
One kid I've seen a number of times is his teams #3. He has poor w/l, average hs era, underwhelming K/bb ratio and can't get average hs hitters to miss-#6-9 regularly make contact.
Because of a tool (velocity) he will be drafted. Kids need to understand the tools are the key from mlb perspective, not your hs performance or stats.
This might be a different issue but for my $ if a kid can't fool hs hitters with his offspeed stuff or get fastball by them either I'm not sure how scouts see him faring well in Rookie Ball or Low A in 6 weeks.

I have an ok formal education in statistics but you shouldn't need one to understand a few basic concepts about stats. First they are only as good as they are accurate. Second, there needs to be a large enough sample to be confident in them. Third, even if they are accurate and you have a large enough sample, the stats may be most useful when used to compare a player with others in the same sample. Another words, hitting .300 might be good or it might be not so good depending on the league, as we all should understand.

I believe some baseball stats in many instances stats can be revealing. While they certainly do not insure that a prospect is exceptional, they often do a better job of revealing who is not.

Bottom line is that when someone categorically says when referring to baseball that, “Numbers mean nothing”, they are wrong. The people who understand baseball and also understand the field of statistics know their value and in many instances know their lack of value.

TR,

In your first post you write, “I went over to a local field watch a young man pitch last night and the end result was proof of why numbers and stats do not count”.

In your last post you contradict yourself by writing, “Keep in mind I am not talking stats here---“, even though in your first post you say you are talking stats.

After further review, would you like to amend your statement, “Numbers mean nothing”?

SBK

Read my last post above

As far as your reference to a kid who lines out every at bat in a game, that is why in my post above I mention a basic concept of statistics is that there needs to be a large enough sample. A game for this stat is hardly enough sample. They just as well could have went 4 for 4 with 2 infield hits and a couple of bloopers.


So do you still believe , "Numbers mean nothing"? ... or do you join those of us that say, "Numbers mean nothing", some of the time, but some time they tell us something?

SBK

The day that I join your side will never come.

Our egos would clash and then I would lose an "internet friend"-- dont ever want that to happen

TR,

There’s a lot to be said for someone that admits they can change their mind based on reasoning and getting new information.

As far as never joining my “side”. Never is a long time. My side says the earth is pretty much round, what’s your side say?

I dont have "sides" --I am me and that is that--you can agree or not agree--but I dont take sides

Then why did you bring it up? You are drivveling.

the earth isn't round. It's an obloid, which is not the same thing , unless you take the most liberal of definitions of 'round'.

I suggest you give same liberal slack to TR because I think we all see what he means and he's entirely correct; simply put, the score can be a misleading indicator of how well a pitcher did.