Will Trickle-Down Recruiting Affect the Ivies?

You came to the right place!  There are many here that can and will speak to your question with direct experience with Ivy's.  Also, know that you can search topics on this site and there have been many recent discussions on this (BTW, your thought process/summary is pretty much in line with others - Ivy's will still be impacted but not nearly as much as others).

The Ivy's should be less impacted as you have pointed out. Be aware that in totality the Ivy's recruit approximately 80 players per year, give or take 10. Your son better focus on academics and make it a "no brainer" for the recruiting coach from an academic standpoint, and the closer he is to a "P5" player (and meet minimum academics) the better his chance.

All of the Ivy's have different recruiting processes and schedules and they also have very different levels of financial assistance. Fenway and others will chime in on this thread, but as Cabbage has note you have come to the right place. Welcome!

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

On the other hand, athletes in their first year of grad school AT an Ivy are now eligible to play too, which might work as a counterweight.

For the sake of transparency, why I care is that my son is a 2022 trying to get recruited by an Ivy.  

What are your thoughts?

This is news to me (and maybe others?). I know many kids that play/have played hockey at Ivies but very few current baseball players. It was my understanding that you get 4 years to play your sport at the Ivies (and also the Patriot League). I think that there are some potential redshirt opportunities. If you look at last season there were many seniors at Ivies that entered the transfer portal to play a 5th year elsewhere instead of staying and playing another year.

Welcome to here NotMadeOf$$. This place is a wealth of information and I am thankful daily for the knowledge about baseball recruiting (and training and other good stuff) that is available here in the archives and still to be learned in the future thru questions like yours.

I do think the Ivy will be impacted by all of this, but probably not at the same rate as some other conferences.  You are generally correct, transferring in is challenging.  I've seen it a few times in recent years, but it's not nearly as prevalent as other conferences.  One thing to remember, Ivies do not grant graduate students eligibility.  Once you've graduated, you're done.  Some guys do take redshirt years (meaning they are eligible to play during their 5th year on campus by NCAA rules) , but can only continue to play if they are not set to graduate on time and are continuing their undergraduate studies.

The thing you may not be accounting for is the number of freshmen who opt to take a gap year and then show up on campus a year later.  Current players might also be taking a semester or a year off too, jamming up rosters in future years.  

I see @9and7dad beat me to it. Graduate students are not eligible to play Ivy League baseball, and undergrads are only eligible during their first 4 years of undergrad (exceptions for medical, etc). I think the league reviewed that policy in April and decided not to change that for COVID-19. The gap year thing (pre and post enrollment) will definitely play a role.

Okay, good information on grad students' non-eligibility, thank you... but @BOF, you mean that they recruit 80 for baseball?  That's like a football roster!

He meant across the entire conference.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

Okay, good information on grad students' non-eligibility, thank you... but @BOF, you mean that they recruit 80 for baseball?  That's like a football roster!

I read that as 80 total for the conference

A-ha... got it, thank you... much more sensible.

D2 Juniors and Seniors will not hop to JUCO's.  They will either stay or hang it up.  D2 kids who are at the end of their academic career start to see the writing on the wall that baseball will be ending soon and life after college is about to start.

I do agree that Ivy league baseball will probably be least affected by any of this.       

The hard truth is that this situation just made recruiting at every level, in every spot more challenging.  Ivy's always a challenge, but as someone pointed out there will be many taking gap years and that will have impact downstream.  Patriot even harder as they do allow grad years.  And what we have found is that this dynamic made competition at D3 harder as studs who were faced with sitting 2 years have de-prioritized the "D1 dream" in exchange for a clearer shot at playing time.  I know this was true for NESCAC and other HA D3's.  I think we'll see a lot of potential D1 talent at that level in the next few years given the residual Covid impact.  Ivy obviously an incredible target, but you need to be more realistic than ever going in what a small target that may be in 2022 and beyond.

Do kids going to an Ivy take a gap year?

I doubt you will see much of an affect. The biggest impact will be perhaps a few (and that number includes all eight schools) who may have elected to take a gap year. The school may allow this but the coach may not--meaning you may have jeopardized your spot by taking a gap year due to COVID. The only school I see that may be missing a few kids this season: Brown. Not sure why but I was pretty sure I originally saw 8 recruits but apparently there are only 6 now. Is this because 2 took a gap year? Maybe.

The maximum recruits per year will only be ~64. Some will take 8 players per year and some will take one less and some perhaps 1 extra--and I think this is totally dependent upon the existing roster. But I would guess if you check the last few years the average will be 8 per team per year.

For the most part I think you will see business as usual. Except maybe no season for 2021... But players will still graduate in 4 years and if they think they may have some baseball in them then they will attempt to play somewhere else as a grad-transfer--especially if the 2021 season is lost.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

First-time poster here...

Since the NCAA announced in the spring an allowance for seniors to stay on for another spring season - and I have read that it applies to all spring athletes enrolled in college last year too, not just seniors - as well as the freeing of eligibility out of the transfer portal and the increasing of roster sizes, our household has talked about the "trickle-down effect" that it will have on college rosters and therefore current high school players.  Namely, because P5s are going to have flooded rosters, some of their current juniors or seniors who were hoping for more playing time are going to see the writing on the wall and transfer this year to mid-majors, where they might be studs.  That will force mid-major athletes in the same situation to jump to some lower-D1s and perhaps D2s.  The D2 juniors and seniors who were hoping to see increased PT this year would therefore hop to JUCO or some D3s, etc.  Basically, the talent level would rise at every division, especially because it's inevitable that some schools will cut baseball for pandemic cost-saving, forcing even more transfers.  The end result, of course, is that it's going to be a tough few years to try to get recruited out of high school.  The NJCAA decision last week might actually mitigate some of this trickling-down across the board because a lot of those players would move "laterally" to JUCO and wait it out for a year or two, rather than down the chain, but it's still very logical that things will proceed in this way.

Hence, my question: do some of you more seasoned minds out there (BTW, this is my first time through this process) think that the Ivies might be immune to this trickle-down impact?  I came up with two potential reasons why myself:

1) the high academics might preclude a lot of players from transferring in, or

2) a lesser number of seniors might stay on for a 5th year, having grad school or professional non-baseball opportunities already lined up after college.

On the other hand, athletes in their first year of grad school AT an Ivy are now eligible to play too, which might work as a counterweight.

For the sake of transparency, why I care is that my son is a 2022 trying to get recruited by an Ivy.  

What are your thoughts?

I have a '22 who's in the process as well; PM me if you'd like to share experiences to date (FYI, son is a catcher)

Harvard appears to be down almost 20% on undergraduate enrollment this semester. "The College enrolled 5,382, compared to the usual census of about 6,600...". I have no idea if there are any baseball players in that group, or how many of those missing freshmen will be welcomed back in the fall of 2021. The enrollment numbers might be similar at the other Ivies.

https://www.harvardmagazine.co...ial-loss-in-pandemic

I expect the quality of college ball at every level to be higher than normal. There are always some players who could play mid major to low D1 who are playing HA D3. There will be more than usual the next couple of years.

Unless the institutions change the allotment of slots to baseball programs, drastically alter their AI, or outright cut programs, the Ivy League will largely be unaffected in maintaining the structure of their recruiting process as compared to virtually every other league in Division I Baseball.

The recruiting market equilibrium for D1 Baseball has been completely thrown off and things are going to be wild for the coming years until the market corrects itself. Keep in mind that the biggest changes - the extra years of eligibility, scholarship allotments, the one-time transfer exemption, and the APR elimination - do not impact the Ivy model in any substantive way. Unless these schools do a 180 on the amount of transfers allowed in, the league is going to remain as steady and low key as US Government issued bonds.

The only differences you will see will be in the pace each schools goes in filling their classes. The 8 programs could not be any more different in their timelines and I expect this situation the accentuate these differences.

long story short - it’s going to take a lot for the Ivies to change.

@highheat17 , that is exactly what I was hoping to hear.  I hope that such is the consensus.  Does it hold for HA D3s too?

I think it's not quite as stable for Ivies or HA D3s, only because many students at these schools are taking the semester or year off, especially if there is no baseball this spring.  They are so expensive, why pay for online classes and closed campus, not to mention no baseball?  It's true that many only allow undergrads to play and for 4 years, but if you take a year off, you are not making progress to graduation, so, if no baseball this spring, I wouldn't be surprised if several of this year's players will have an extra year.  I wonder if, as Absorber suggests, some coaches won't give that extra year?  At a minimum rosters may be crowded, but no-one knows what admissions offices will do this year and next, in terms of slots.

Student athletes at Ivy schools are not taking gap years. That’s like telling the coach you’ll just show up and play when you feel like it. How do you think the coach will handle that situation?

Of course it is conceivable that there will be a few cases in a given sport Ivy-wide but certainly not on a single team. But they would have to have a darn good reason.

@ABSORBER posted:

Student athletes at Ivy schools are not taking gap years. That’s like telling the coach you’ll just show up and play when you feel like it. How do you think the coach will handle that situation?

Of course it is conceivable that there will be a few cases in a given sport Ivy-wide but certainly not on a single team. But they would have to have a darn good reason.

The students at Ivy's are being told they can take a gap year, but they may not be welcome to return the following year.  So a gap year could turn into a 2 year gap.

High-Academic D3 is going to be extremely interesting especially if players are granted an extra year of eligibility for the 2021 season as is rumored right now.

For the Ivies, each program and even each sport inside each school is taking a different approach for gap years. From what I've heard, it seems that baseball doesn't have many gap years guys while other sports (football/hockey/lax) tend to have quite a few.

The factor that will be unique to the Ivy League is that the value of the degree - right or wrong - combined with the impending uncertainty of roster turnover with the one-time transfer policy is going to make it a safer bet to stick it out in side the Ancient 8. Each situation will be different but if this past year was any indication do not be shocked if this is much more stable than any other league in Division 1.

I would simply assume that the HA D3 athletes would be less likely to stick around for a 5th year, even if granted eligibility, simply because of the cost... especially if they have grad school or employment waiting.

Regardless, all of your comments have been both helpful and reassuring.  Thank you.

To reboot the conversation on a related topic, how about this?

Given the current circumstances (ongoing D1 Dead Period, some D3 coaches not allowed by colleges to travel and recruit at all, budgets perhaps being slashed, showcases being cancelled or moved because of state-to-state restrictions, no real end in sight, etc.), for which of the following colleges and/or conferences do you think that recruiting might look the most "normal" (close to business as usual) for the next few years?

- Johns Hopkins

- Rest of Centennial Conference

- Ivies

- NESCAC

- Washington & Lee

- Rest of ODAC

In other words, for which of the above do you think that recruiting is probably the most predictable right now, based on the viability of past experience in the current climate?

Just a quick comment that some coaches have advised their freshmen to take a gap year at the Ivies and HAD3!  We have friends who have said the coach advised them as this way the coach gets hopefully post covid 4 years from their top recruits and the risk there is no baseball this spring does not matter therefore for these gap year freshmen.  It means HS class of 2021 is impacted for sure at Ivies and HA D3. 

And the assumption about HA D3 not sticking around for a 5th year is wrong.  First, many class of 2020 Ivy players who graduated in the spring are now on HA D3 and other D1 rosters which allow for 5th years.  While the cost may be prohibitive for some, it has not stopped the huge flow of grad students playing.  I have heard many 2021s who are also contemplating 5th years and this is likely to continue given the blanket grant of extra eligibility.  If there is no season this spring, expect it to be even more. 

So what happens if the player decides he doesn't want a gap year? Would the coach hold any ill will towards the player?

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

In other words, for which of the above do you think that recruiting is probably the most predictable right now, based on the viability of past experience in the current climate?

I know a 2021 who got his likely letter from an Ivy this October. The school's on-campus camps (pre-covid, of course) were the most important factor in his recruitment. He was on their board when covid started, so after that it was game video, workout video, tournament streams, phone calls and repeated academic updates.

I'm guessing that the schools on your list above will resume camps at different times. The ones that can conduct on-campus camps next spring and summer will probably offer the closest thing to a "normal" recruiting experience for a 2022.

@Twoboys posted:

Just a quick comment that some coaches have advised their freshmen to take a gap year at the Ivies and HAD3!  We have friends who have said the coach advised them as this way the coach gets hopefully post covid 4 years from their top recruits and the risk there is no baseball this spring does not matter therefore for these gap year freshmen.  It means HS class of 2021 is impacted for sure at Ivies and HA D3.

And the assumption about HA D3 not sticking around for a 5th year is wrong.  First, many class of 2020 Ivy players who graduated in the spring are now on HA D3 and other D1 rosters which allow for 5th years.  While the cost may be prohibitive for some, it has not stopped the huge flow of grad students playing.  I have heard many 2021s who are also contemplating 5th years and this is likely to continue given the blanket grant of extra eligibility.  If there is no season this spring, expect it to be even more.

This sounds like rumor-mill. Keep in mind the Fall 2020 semester is coming to a close very soon--meaning they have been taking classes all Fall either in-person or remotely. While the season pans have not yet been decided (or announced) these players likely showed up in August/September so they would be eligible to play in the Spring.

So if the Ivy League, Ivy AD's, and Ivy coaches didn't know whether the season would be played (and still don't) why would they have recommended their players take a gap year? They would have lost 1/4 of their team.

I don't know of any freshman taking a gap year (I do know about a few rosters). Not saying there may be one or two players Ivy-wide who elected to take a gap year but I would imagine is was not because the coach suggested it.

It is not rumor mill.  But OK. 

I've not heard of Ivy '21s reclassifying but here's a vignette that might be interesting. My daughter is a vb player (the athlete in the family!) so we follow that sport as closely as baseball. One of the best setters in SoCal committed to Yale in the '21 class but then announced she would reclassify as a '22 and take a gap year. She's an elite get for Yale so perhaps they accommodated her (she's got very solid academics as well). Just one data point in a different sport but it bears watching for baseball IMO.

@OskiSD posted:

I've not heard of Ivy '21s reclassifying but here's a vignette that might be interesting. My daughter is a vb player (the athlete in the family!) so we follow that sport as closely as baseball. One of the best setters in SoCal committed to Yale in the '21 class but then announced she would reclassify as a '22 and take a gap year. She's an elite get for Yale so perhaps they accommodated her (she's got very solid academics as well). Just one data point in a different sport but it bears watching for baseball IMO.

Do you know if the vb player made that decision exclusively over concerns of things not being "back to normal" at Yale by the fall of 2021?

@MidAtlanticDad posted:

Do you know if the vb player made that decision exclusively over concerns of things not being "back to normal" at Yale by the fall of 2021?

Great question - my daughter heard through her HS teammates that it was indeed the COVID situation that drove her decision making. As an aside, it totally screwed up one of my daughter's good friends who was at the top of Yale's setter board for '22. No longer.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

I would simply assume that the HA D3 athletes would be less likely to stick around for a 5th year, even if granted eligibility, simply because of the cost... especially if they have grad school or employment waiting.

Regardless, all of your comments have been both helpful and reassuring.  Thank you.

To reboot the conversation on a related topic, how about this?

Given the current circumstances (ongoing D1 Dead Period, some D3 coaches not allowed by colleges to travel and recruit at all, budgets perhaps being slashed, showcases being cancelled or moved because of state-to-state restrictions, no real end in sight, etc.), for which of the following colleges and/or conferences do you think that recruiting might look the most "normal" (close to business as usual) for the next few years?

- Johns Hopkins

- Rest of Centennial Conference

- Ivies

- NESCAC

- Washington & Lee

- Rest of ODAC

In other words, for which of the above do you think that recruiting is probably the most predictable right now, based on the viability of past experience in the current climate?

Cant speak to additional 5th years, given the cost, but I do know of 2 players this year that took gap years.  One Ivy, one D3 on this list.  So I believe there will be something of a ripple effect.  I know at Tufts this year they had very limited recruiting due to 5th years and returning players (PG would seem to reflect this is currently accurate).  I'm just of the belief that it will have a slight impact the next 2 years, but not as deep and wide ranging as D1.

BTW, given that I just went through pretty much this exact process and list, feel free to DM me.  Happy to answer specific questions.  

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

I would simply assume that the HA D3 athletes would be less likely to stick around for a 5th year, even if granted eligibility, simply because of the cost... especially if they have grad school or employment waiting.

Regardless, all of your comments have been both helpful and reassuring.  Thank you.

To reboot the conversation on a related topic, how about this?

Given the current circumstances (ongoing D1 Dead Period, some D3 coaches not allowed by colleges to travel and recruit at all, budgets perhaps being slashed, showcases being cancelled or moved because of state-to-state restrictions, no real end in sight, etc.), for which of the following colleges and/or conferences do you think that recruiting might look the most "normal" (close to business as usual) for the next few years?

- Johns Hopkins

- Rest of Centennial Conference

- Ivies

- NESCAC

- Washington & Lee

- Rest of ODAC

In other words, for which of the above do you think that recruiting is probably the most predictable right now, based on the viability of past experience in the current climate?

- Johns Hopkins - Hell no

- Rest of Centennial Conference - Hell no

- Ivies - Hell no

- NESCAC - Hell no

- Washington & Lee - Possible

- Rest of ODAC - Clear favorite to win the most normal looking category. They are schools who aren't guaranteed to be run by elitist snobs who are operating on a bigger agenda, still possible but less so. They operate closer to normal world status and have tighter budgets to contend with. No guarantees it will return to normal but this is far and away your best shot...like you don't have a plan in this list outside of the ODAC you are looking for normal IMO. You have quite a few schools here that skew southern and rural...as opposed to well you know the rest.

http://features.yaledailynews....year-without-sports/

Folks, Ivy recruiting IS NOT GOING TO CHANGE. They may get between six and nine slots per year (most common is seven or eight per team). That's it! So what happens if five of eight slotted 2020's didn't show up this past Fall because they are taking a gap year? And they plan on attending and playing the following year?

NOTHING!

Because those Ivy teams will still get only 6-9 slots the following year. The five that didn't show up were already admitted. They will presumably return and maybe the coach won't be upset and will allow them to play. That coach is NOT getting extra slots the following year regardless of the outcome. He still can have up to 35 players on his roster. Those 6-9 slots are not going to fill the 35 man roster. He NEEDS those gap year players to want to return otherwise his roster will be WAY short for the next three years.

Also understand that quite a few of the Ivy teams have players taking gap years because they DIDN'T get a slot for the current year--therefore the coach offered them a slot for the following year. Of course that means they are taking a gap year. I know of at least one 2020 player taking a gap year--he will count as a 2021 commit. There may be others.

https://www.gooverseas.com/gap-year

Wonder if I could figure out how to take a gap year  just saying

I must admit that the gap year conundrum is not one that I considered before posting here.  I certainly have no idea what the reality is in this regard for already-admitted and current players.  The case-by-case nature of it could be quite the rabbit hole.

Additionally, @MidAtlanticDad's point about on-campus camps piques my interest.  My son has been to a number of 3rd party showcase events and several camps where many schools are represented, but he has only been to one camp run solely by a lone college for its own purposes; that was years ago - a local school - strictly so that he could feel what a showcase environment is and thereby get his feet wet.

Do others of you agree that on-campus camps are really that integral and essential a part of HA recruiting?  We're going to Headfirst in NY next summer, but I had not planned on dropping money in lots of individual coaches' buckets.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

I must admit that the gap year conundrum is not one that I considered before posting here.  I certainly have no idea what the reality is in this regard for already-admitted and current players.  The case-by-case nature of it could be quite the rabbit hole.

Additionally, @MidAtlanticDad's point about on-campus camps piques my interest.  My son has been to a number of 3rd party showcase events and several camps where many schools are represented, but he has only been to one camp run solely by a lone college for its own purposes; that was years ago - a local school - strictly so that he could feel what a showcase environment is and thereby get his feet wet.

Do others of you agree that on-campus camps are really that integral and essential a part of HA recruiting?  We're going to Headfirst in NY next summer, but I had not planned on dropping money in lots of individual coaches' buckets.

Camps are really critical.  HF/Showball  both great.  I think PBR has made some big strides the past year and know many players who benefited from being on their radar.  But the camps generally bring it together on the HA front.  Nearly every school that was really interested in my son was due to his attending a camp.  Plus they're less expensive.  Can go to 3 or more for the price of one HF/Showball, and far fewer players for coaches to evaluate.

I'll add that a lot of times the coaches you meet at HF/Showball will ask you to attend their individual school's camp.  That is, if the timing is right and/or they want to see more of you up close and personal. Or perhaps they just want your money!

I would also suggest that if money is not an issue, attending the camp of the school you are really interested in can be beneficial:

1. You get a better idea whether that school's coaching staff is what you like/want/can deal with

2. Get a better idea of the campus and the school environment

3.And, if you attended their camp PRIOR to HF/Showball, they won't be asking you to attend their individual camp later! Of course this could be good or bad--good because they've seen enough and will offer--bad if they've seen enough and don't want/need to see you again!