With Bartolo at 5'11" with a FB in the mid to high 80's, would he be recruited by D1 schools if he was 17 yrs old? He gave the Mets 15 wins this season.
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Definitely not. That is the great thing about baseball. There are a surprising number of guys who do not fit the typical D1/MLB Scout mold that wind up being highly successful players. A lot of them are pitchers who do not blow away hitters but outsmart them and hit their spots like Colon does.
Of course, they have to be given the chance first. I love the story of how Jose Altuve was cut by one of the coaches at a camp in Venezuela one day and showed up the next day anyway (when the coach who cut him was not there) and wound up getting another chance. The guy is now is true game changer and All Star/MVP candidate and most scouts would never have given him a chance.
Hell no, He wouldn't hardly get a look from most D2.
Colon used to throw harder. It got him to MLB. Now like a lot of older veteran pitchers he gets by on location, wisdom and experience.
Well, Bartolo for years was known for an extremely firm, extremely "heavy" fastball which he could carry deep into games. I remember reading one MLB catcher likening it to catching a bowling ball at 90 mph. Even when he was with the Angels, he was consistent low 90's, popping higher.
mdschert posted:With Bartolo at 5'11" with a FB in the mid to high 80's, would he be recruited by D1 schools if he was 17 yrs old? He gave the Mets 15 wins this season.
Bartolo threw Close to 100 when he came into the league.
Even this year his fastest FB was 91.4 measured by pitch fx although he averages much less. he could probably still throw 90 consistenly but he choses to take off a Little to trade for command and durability since 91 is not blowing MLB hitters away anyway.
Yes but the question was would they recruit him with the current 87 MPH fastball he currently has. I think it is pretty obvious they wouldn't.
So maybe a better question is if a pitcher with an 87 MPH fastball can win 15 games in the MLB why couldn't he get a look from D1 school?
Are we talking D1 or Power 5 because Coastal Carolina's best starting pitcher was mostly mid-80's but used lots of different arm angles?
old_school posted:Yes but the question was would they recruit him with the current 87 MPH fastball he currently has. I think it is pretty obvious they wouldn't.
So maybe a better question is if a pitcher with an 87 MPH fastball can win 15 games in the MLB why couldn't he get a look from D1 school?
There are plenty of D1 pitchers even in strong conferences who sit upper 80s (and of course submariners who throw even slower than that). Of course they all can hit 90+ but so can bartolo (as I said pitch fx had him topping out at 91.4 in 2016). A guy with elite command and movement that can touch 91 absolutely does get a shot at good D1 Schools.
most guys in the upper 80s who don't make it to college ball just don't have THAT good pitching ability. They have kinda OK control (in that they could throw it near the strike Zone rather consistently) but not really sharp command. that is good enough against most HS hitters (except the best ones) but not against college hitters.
true elite command is a rare skill and it does get Looks even at high 80s. but true elite command is not "can throw it near the plate most of the time".
That's the funny thing with baseball, you just never really know until you know. I sometimes wonder how some of these guys playing pro ball ever got a second look. Great example of this is the kid from the Giants, Hunter Pence how he gets up there to hit and goes through his swing. He does everything wrong yet he's successful. I would love to have seen him play when he was 16/17.
Well he is 43 years old and from the Dominican. I doubt if he has graduated from high school. He was a power pitcher when he was younger. Now he depends on command.
To answer the question... If he were 17-18 years old throwing exactly like he does now, he would still be recruited by DI colleges. However, he wouldn't be one of the top ranked recruits. He probably wouldn't be where he is today, if he threw like this when he was first signed. That's too bad, if you think about it. His physique and below ave. fastball probably wouldn't have impressed a lot of scouts. But at 17 he was throwing upper 90s with nowhere near the command he has now. That velocity gets things going.
BTW, there have been some very successful DI pitchers that don't average 90 mph.
Florida State Fan posted:That's the funny thing with baseball, you just never really know until you know. I sometimes wonder how some of these guys playing pro ball ever got a second look. Great example of this is the kid from the Giants, Hunter Pence how he gets up there to hit and goes through his swing. He does everything wrong yet he's successful. I would love to have seen him play when he was 16/17.
According to the zepp app he has Close to 100 mph batspeed (not sure if that is accurate). I would guess pence hit .500+ in HS albeit I have not seen stats. he probably also hit 90+ from the OF with a crow hop.
old_school posted:Yes but the question was would they recruit him with the current 87 MPH fastball he currently has. I think it is pretty obvious they wouldn't.
So maybe a better question is if a pitcher with an 87 MPH fastball can win 15 games in the MLB why couldn't he get a look from D1 school?
I'm curious what your opinion is of the velocity standard for a RHP to be recruited to a D1 school?
I'm guessing touching 91, averaging 87, heading into senior year would get a kid a lot of interest (assuming the kid wasn't 43 years old and seriously overweight).
Even topping 87 with good pitchability is a D1 pitcher. Just looked at a top third D1 roster the other day. Every single one of the 15 pitchers had PG profiles from their HS senior year or later! Exactly 1 of the 15 hit 90 MAX on the dot. All others were below. Avg was 86. And this is topping not cruising. I tell you what was really high across the board... GPA!
old_school posted:Hell no, He wouldn't hardly get a look from most D2.
He would dominate D2 baseball.
I was going to say 88mph but 2020DAD is pretty close. Sitting mid-80s with top at 87-88mph has been good enough for our HS to have 2 pitchers sign D1 the last two years.
I think he would be a recruit at a D1 school. He would get some money to pitch from someone. His 60 time would suck but who cares.....you said pitch not bat. If he went Acadmenic or D2 he would dominate and get drafted.
Uh, yes. You guys vastly overrate how good a D1 pitcher is and vastly underrate two things:
Bartolo's Command
Bartolo's Movement
A pitching coach who saw Bartolo command his fastball that has insane movement (search for GIFs on Twitter... they're nuts) would easily offer him a scholarship. He may not like the weight and height but it would be apparent VERY quick that he was an elite arm. He'd probably throw multiple no-hitters in wood bat competition.
EDIT:
For example - this is Bartolo's two-seam fastball. He has this kind of command, too. You think D1 pitching coaches aren't gonna be interested? OK.
To put it into perspective - 2016 Bartolo Colon would have the best command out of any D1 college pitcher. It would literally not be close.
Dominik85 posted:Florida State Fan posted:That's the funny thing with baseball, you just never really know until you know. I sometimes wonder how some of these guys playing pro ball ever got a second look. Great example of this is the kid from the Giants, Hunter Pence how he gets up there to hit and goes through his swing. He does everything wrong yet he's successful. I would love to have seen him play when he was 16/17.
According to the zepp app he has Close to 100 mph batspeed (not sure if that is accurate). I would guess pence hit .500+ in HS albeit I have not seen stats. he probably also hit 90+ from the OF with a crow hop.
You may already know this, but Pence has a congenital back defect that gives him no flexibility in much of his spine.
The average pitching velocity from 2016 from TCU, LSU, U of F, U of T and UCLA.
TCU - 92.3, LSU - 92.9, UF - 93.3, UT - 91.9, UCLA - 91.3
This whole recruiting thing is weird and mind boggling. I see no actual formula for the next level utilizing measurables. They either like you or they don't.
We had a 6'2" 2016 LHP that cruises 86-88, ACT 25, had zero offers D1/D2/D3, currently JuCo and is now getting MLB scout attention.
Currently, two 2018 RHPs/OF, one is 6'2" 185 LHH, the other is 6'3" 200 RHH, both are 86-89 with one T90 multiple times. Both sub 7's, with +bats. One with Zepp readings, BSI - 96.41, HS - 39.81, TTI - .103 .
Both have scout team exposure and have garnered zero interest. The only thing we have heard, "we like him" and "not what we're looking for at this time" , coming from low level D1. Academically, both are very good.
The only thing you can tell them is keep plugging away!
I texted two top 25 school pitching coaches and one big leaguer and asked them this question. The responses were:
Coach: "That is the most absurd thing I've heard. He sits 88-91 with two feet of run on his fastball. It would take all of 1 inning to realize he would be a top level recruit. He can keep the gut."
Coach 2: "That question is insane. He'd never get to college anyway. No amateur has that kind of command."
Big leaguer: "He would throw 5 no hitters per year in the Pac-12 pretty handily, not to mention what he'd do in high school to get there. I think that would be enough."
Kyle Boddy posted:I texted two top 25 school pitching coaches and one big leaguer and asked them this question. The responses were:
Coach: "That is the most absurd thing I've heard. He sits 88-91 with two feet of run on his fastball. It would take all of 1 inning to realize he would be a top level recruit. He can keep the gut."
Coach 2: "That question is insane. He'd never get to college anyway. No amateur has that kind of command."
Big leaguer: "He would throw 5 no hitters per year in the Pac-12 pretty handily, not to mention what he'd do in high school to get there. I think that would be enough."
Well, there's some pretty darn good 1st hand insight and specifics... thanks for sending that text and sharing.
Go44dad posted:Dominik85 posted:Florida State Fan posted:That's the funny thing with baseball, you just never really know until you know. I sometimes wonder how some of these guys playing pro ball ever got a second look. Great example of this is the kid from the Giants, Hunter Pence how he gets up there to hit and goes through his swing. He does everything wrong yet he's successful. I would love to have seen him play when he was 16/17.
According to the zepp app he has Close to 100 mph batspeed (not sure if that is accurate). I would guess pence hit .500+ in HS albeit I have not seen stats. he probably also hit 90+ from the OF with a crow hop.
You may already know this, but Pence has a congenital back defect that gives him no flexibility in much of his spine.
Pence has Scheuermann's disease, and as you said, limits thoracic mobility in his spine. My son has a variant(not full blown so called a variant) and thoracic mobility is something he has to work on and shows when he gets a functional movement screen by a PT. It's awesome that Hunter has talked about it and shows that you can overcome limitations like this. He didn't know until he was an adult, so we're hoping since we found it when my son was 12, that with the work he's putting in, that it will not affect any quality of life.
As to the OP and Colon, I think people just often hear how big velocity is, that nothing else matters. You hear/read how the scouts will have the gun out, see mid 80's and all the guns go away and no interest. I take that with a grain of salt, but I think it leads to that perception. Also, from reading and researching D1 pitchers, they are not anywhere near all averaging 90+.
Go Jays!
Kyle Boddy posted:Uh, yes. You guys vastly overrate how good a D1 pitcher is and vastly underrate two things:
Bartolo's Command
Bartolo's Movement
A pitching coach who saw Bartolo command his fastball that has insane movement (search for GIFs on Twitter... they're nuts) would easily offer him a scholarship. He may not like the weight and height but it would be apparent VERY quick that he was an elite arm. He'd probably throw multiple no-hitters in wood bat competition.
EDIT:
For example - this is Bartolo's two-seam fastball. He has this kind of command, too. You think D1 pitching coaches aren't gonna be interested? OK.
I agree with much of the above but IMO I think you under rate how in love with a radar gun many many college programs are.
old_school posted:Kyle Boddy posted:Uh, yes. You guys vastly overrate how good a D1 pitcher is and vastly underrate two things:
Bartolo's Command
Bartolo's Movement
A pitching coach who saw Bartolo command his fastball that has insane movement (search for GIFs on Twitter... they're nuts) would easily offer him a scholarship. He may not like the weight and height but it would be apparent VERY quick that he was an elite arm. He'd probably throw multiple no-hitters in wood bat competition.
EDIT:
For example - this is Bartolo's two-seam fastball. He has this kind of command, too. You think D1 pitching coaches aren't gonna be interested? OK.
I agree with much of the above but IMO I think you under rate how in love with a radar gun many many college programs are.
But even with respect to velocity, there just aren't that many high school guys who reach or exceed the 91 that Bartolo touched this year. At last year's WWBA in Jupiter -- I believe 376 teams -- there were 84 pitchers who touched 92 or higher. And another 56 that touched 91. I realize that not every single hard-throwing high school pitcher is at Jupiter, but quite a few are. Also, those 140 kids were from multiple classes (2016, 2017, 2018) so for any one class it would be lower.
Thank you 2019. There are a lot more 90+ guys than there used to be. But they are still not common. They go to the draft and power 5's. There are really only a relative few left over for others. And remember when that D3 kid is throwing 93 you can almost bet he developed in college and was probably 85 in high school.
Much better information from PGStaff in this thread: http://community.hsbaseballweb...42#30297890213027142
Perfect Game recorded 235 pitchers in the class of 2016 who touched 91 or higher. Some of those, of course, were drafted and turned pro. I think it's safe to assume that 1000+ pitchers per year are recruited by the ~300 D1 schools . . .
Excerpt:
Here is a chart that includes all pitchers 85 and higher in 2016 grad year, these are all recorded from last year (2015). For sure there are many more that we did not record, these are just from PG showcases and tournaments.
98 mph - 1
97 mph - 1
96 mph - 4
95 mph - 11
94 mph - 24
93 mph - 33
92 mph - 70
91 mph - 91
I think most pitchers who throw 87 in games have touched 90 at some point.
And many of those guys are draft guys who are not D1 bound (may be committed but no shot of getting to campus). I also have a lot of experience in the college game.... trust me when I say Bartolo would be a sought-after pitcher.
Easy for the scouts and MLB to say absolutely Colon would have been found by a D1 knowing his name, what he has done and what he continues to do with his limited tools.
But if you walk up to most scouts or D1 coaches and tell them:
We have a kid who is 5-10 and 280. His two seam FB averages 87 and he throws it 89.5% of the time. He throws his slider about 6% of the time at 82 and his change-up 4.5% at 81 (all stats courtesy of Fangraphs for 2016). But he has incredible command and deception. You have to watch him pitch to appreciate him.
I'm guessing you get an entirely different answer. Not only would most scouts and D1 coaches not even bother to ask his name, but he'd probably not even get many coaches watching him pitch 1 or 2 innings in a showcase where he might throw 25-30 pitches.
Better velocity data is here:
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/...04/2016&s_type=2
His fastball averages 90. His sinker is 87 and moves an insane amount. Coaches would very much want to see this.
Of course if you undersold it as much as possible, yeah coaches would not want to see it. But if someone they knew said "This guy has the best command of anyone I have ever seen in my life," they would for sure sign up.
You guys are aware he threw 38 straight strikes once in an MLB game, right?
When I was in college I had a girlfriend who was bonkers for Tom Selleck. She wouldn't even let me sit on the couch next to her while Magnum PI was playing.
Amateur pitchers who think their velocity makes them comparable to Bartolo Colon have about as much chance of persuading a coach or scout of that fantasy as I had of convincing my girlfriend that my having a height and weight identical to Tom Selleck's was at all relevant to the hotness score she should assign me.
Backstop22 posted:Easy for the scouts and MLB to say absolutely Colon would have been found by a D1 knowing his name, what he has done and what he continues to do with his limited tools.
But if you walk up to most scouts or D1 coaches and tell them:
We have a kid who is 5-10 and 280. His two seam FB averages 87 and he throws it 89.5% of the time. He throws his slider about 6% of the time at 82 and his change-up 4.5% at 81 (all stats courtesy of Fangraphs for 2016). But he has incredible command and deception. You have to watch him pitch to appreciate him.
I'm guessing you get an entirely different answer. Not only would most scouts and D1 coaches not even bother to ask his name, but he'd probably not even get many coaches watching him pitch 1 or 2 innings in a showcase where he might throw 25-30 pitches.
I think it would boil down to the source. If a reputable coach told a D1 coach that he would probably listen. If I told him, he probably wouldn't. :-)
I agree that it would take a very reliable source to convince a scout or coach to come watch the kid with similar metrics pitch in a game where he can really demonstrate the command and movement that Kyle is talking about. Its nice that there are Brooksbaseball and Fangraphs out there to show what Colon has done. The high school kid has a radar gun to measure him and that is usually it.
Of course, the key then is getting that kid seen by somebody who has enough credibility to get him that real look--not just a two inning stint at a showcase. If he happens to be in a small school or not linked up with a strong travel ball organization/coach, he is most likely out of luck.
When Bartolo Colon came up, he was a muscular, menacing pitcher who threw mid to upper 90's, tapped by coaches to become the hardest throwing pitcher ever.
Backstop22 posted:I agree that it would take a very reliable source to convince a scout or coach to come watch the kid with similar metrics pitch in a game where he can really demonstrate the command and movement that Kyle is talking about. Its nice that there are Brooksbaseball and Fangraphs out there to show what Colon has done. The high school kid has a radar gun to measure him and that is usually it.
Of course, the key then is getting that kid seen by somebody who has enough credibility to get him that real look--not just a two inning stint at a showcase. If he happens to be in a small school or not linked up with a strong travel ball organization/coach, he is most likely out of luck.
Agree about the radar gun for high school kids. What radar gun readings do you think a RHP high school kid needs to convince a scout or coach to come watch?
I have seen D1 coaches come to see kids who are averaging a lot less than 90.3 mph on their four-seamer, or 87.8 mph on their two-seamer (Colon's averages this year per the link Kyle posted).
old_school posted:Yes but the question was would they recruit him with the current 87 MPH fastball he currently has. I think it is pretty obvious they wouldn't.
So maybe a better question is if a pitcher with an 87 MPH fastball can win 15 games in the MLB why couldn't he get a look from D1 school?
A high school pitcher throwing 87 doesn't have the knowledge and experience of a Colon. It's an important part of who Colon is as a pitcher.
Addressing Colon's command. Been posted on the site before but worth another look.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8c2Edxl1Jg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3n0MbHGZIs
There are numerous D1 programs that would love to have a guy who can pitch in the upper 80's with that type of movement and command. Yes he would not only get recruited he would be highly valued.