If they only have 5 rounds, will they focus heavily on Pitchers? Then go after position players in free agency?
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bandera posted:If they only have 5 rounds, will they focus heavily on Pitchers? Then go after position players in free agency?
Not a bad conjecture, though a number of players at the top of the draft- Torkelson, Martin & Gonzales are hitters. I think what you can anticipate in a 5 round draft is fewer HIGH SCHOOL pitchers. I am interested to see how teams handle the "slot" values with so few rounds. Will a club overslot sign a player (as the Mets did with Matthew Allan last year) and undersign several others?At some point after talent, teams will address NEED, albeit a short draft.
Also another new wrinkle this year will be with the remaining talent players after he draft that teams will seek. Probably involve some seniors, grad students, juniors not wanting to add another calendar year. Usually you get drafted that's where you go. With the signings after the final round of draft, a player may have options. Teams can sign players for UP to $20,000. So if you get a call from a team for $12,000-$15000 do you wait? If a team shows interest, but you see that team has an influx of players at your position (say C or 1B) do you take it?
Not sure if this would fly but just a thought. If the above goes through and a player does not get drafted, there might be an "understanding" that if they reach a certain level in minors (ex. AA ) they will be presented with a contract for the remaining years in the minors. This currently happens with top minors talent, where they will sign a big contract in the minors, essentially locking them up under team control if/when they reach the show ($25 mil for 7-8 years). For a non drafted player after 5 rounds, lets assume he signs for $20K, the max amount. If he reaches AA, then a good faith contract is presented, for $225K (with same restrictions as a signing bonus). Essentially pretty much same as a 6th rounder (if that is what team projected him if regular draft) getting $245K signing bonus. Again, I'm just thinking outside the box, and this scenario may have already been thought about by Manfred & Company, but sounds plausible considering the current situation. And yes, I'm bored with no baseball so have nothing better to do then think of dumb stuff like the above!!. Stay safe everybody.
I think they will go for the best players available and the top10 of the first round will be dominated by hitters which has been the standard for the last 4-5 years.
Generally teams now prefer hitters at the top of the draft because teams found out that hitting prospects are easier and safer to develope while pitchers get hurt all the time.
This is true for the very top hitters of course, the hitters with not so great tools won't have much leverage. But the most talented hitters with great tools and some present hitting ability will dominate the top of the draft again, in fact I think the top 2 rounds won't change all that much compared to a normal draft.
Will they lowball? A normal amount of talent and fewer rounds. Seems like offering below slot should be their strategy. At least after the first round.
I think we will see different strategies. Many teams will probably try to get two really good guys who could get over slot and the other 3 might pay for that. Generally the trend in valuing prospects is quality over quantity because teams know the numbers better.
4th and 5th rounders might have little leverage anyway.
However maybe some teams will go a different direction
bandera posted:Will they lowball? A normal amount of talent and fewer rounds. Seems like offering below slot should be their strategy. At least after the first round.
I think they will lowball, especially if it is only 5 rounds. Too much supply and some of that supply will probably be willing to take 100k-200k below slot to sign.
From what I’m hearing, college pitchers will dominate the first few rounds. There are also some very talented high school arms and a few high school bats that will be in the mix.
This quote is in an article about a top prospect who was considered to be the top 2021 high school prospect. Because he’s already eighteen he’s reclassifying and graduating this spring. When asked where he would go in the draft by reclassifying ...
“I think all high school players are going to be hurt by what has happened,” one American League scout said. “If you don’t see a guy pitch in the spring, it’s pretty hard to go out on a limb and make that kid your first pick. You at least want to see that the arm is working and the velocity is still there. There are so many things you want to see that you won’t be able to see.”
Anyone watching the draft? Thought there were quite a few surprises, seems there are still deals with the short draft. Especially Baltimore guy was surprising
@d-mac posted:I think they will lowball, especially if it is only 5 rounds. Too much supply and some of that supply will probably be willing to take 100k-200k below slot to sign.
Is it? If you've got the opportunity to sign a max of only 5 high-level guys, wouldn't you be highly motivated not to lose any of them?
@JCG posted:Is it? If you've got the opportunity to sign a max of only 5 high-level guys, wouldn't you be highly motivated not to lose any of them?
FA signings at a $20k max, as many as you want. MLB is motivated to save $. They will be getting many high level guys, practically free.
Very interesting. I thought there were some big surprises...
My son's high school teammate went in the competitive balance round. Congrats to him. He is a great kid and was definitely someone my son looked up to this year.
@JCG posted:Is it? If you've got the opportunity to sign a max of only 5 high-level guys, wouldn't you be highly motivated not to lose any of them?
They aren't going to lose them, the negotiations are done before the pick is made. When we get into the the final round you are going to have a few hundred kids and only 30 spots. Those kids can sign for less, they can sign for 20k as a FA or they can return to school. I expect you will see the kids who want to start their pro journey take less than slot.
Last pick of the 5th round is slotted at $324K. I'm thinking that if you really believe you would have gone in round 6, you start college or go back to college.
We'll see.
or go to a JUCO and try your luck in the draft next year.
Depends on how badly you want to keep playing. Next year it might be even harder to get drafted. Unprecedented times. Also, cutting MILB players/teams, nothing is stable or predictable.
incoming freshmen and repeating freshmen who see themselves as 6th+ rounder might jump to a JUCO so they can draft in 2021 when the draft jumps from 5 rounds to a minimum of 20. at least per the agreement from March. College Sophomores and Juniors don't need to go to a JUCO because they are draft eligible next year even if they stay.
I will be interested to see what the kids actually signed for. I was really shocked at how many high school players went late. Maybe it is the college landscape or the uncertainty in Major League Baseball. I think that could have played both ways in decisions. I was scratching my head at some of the picks and also some of the names that I thought wouldn't sign after round one that had their names called, so I assume a deal had been made.
@baseballhs posted:I will be interested to see what the kids actually signed for. I was really shocked at how many high school players went late. Maybe it is the college landscape or the uncertainty in Major League Baseball. I think that could have played both ways in decisions. I was scratching my head at some of the picks and also some of the names that I thought wouldn't sign after round one that had their names called, so I assume a deal had been made.
Well, once you get past the college kids who are 1-3 round picks, you realize college seniors don't have a lot of leverage. They don't need to staff up the minors this summer and seniors can either stay in school or take the same low signing bonuses they will get next year anyway. Many will sign now because if they stay in college until next year, they may get drafted and offered useless bonus money and they can negotiate as free agents this year and get the same kind of low money. So, they might as well negotiate now when they at least have the leverage of shopping around.
I'm not a really suspicious type but I wonder if some clubs (yeah, I'm looking at you Astros & BoSox) might look for ways to game the coming free agent free-for-all. Off-the-books cash payments? Free housing? Vehicles? Meals? High paying off-season "jobs"? I'm sure those with devious minds could come up with ways to make those and others happen with little chance of detection.
@JCG posted:I'm not a really suspicious type but I wonder if some clubs (yeah, I'm looking at you Astros & BoSox) might look for ways to game the coming free agent free-for-all. Off-the-books cash payments? Free housing? Vehicles? Meals? High paying off-season "jobs"? I'm sure those with devious minds could come up with ways to make those and others happen with little chance of detection.
So basically perks college football players get
@JCG posted:I'm not a really suspicious type but I wonder if some clubs (yeah, I'm looking at you Astros & BoSox) might look for ways to game the coming free agent free-for-all. Off-the-books cash payments? Free housing? Vehicles? Meals? High paying off-season "jobs"? I'm sure those with devious minds could come up with ways to make those and others happen with little chance of detection.
There are already some acceptable incentives beyond the signing bonus. From the email my son got last night from MLB:
"Passed over players are eligible to receive a signing bonus up to $20,000. You may also negotiate for an Incentive Bonus, Contingent Bonus or Continuing Education Program funds (please see Major League Rule 3(c)(5) for details)."
@JCG posted:I'm not a really suspicious type but I wonder if some clubs (yeah, I'm looking at you Astros & BoSox) might look for ways to game the coming free agent free-for-all. Off-the-books cash payments? Free housing? Vehicles? Meals? High paying off-season "jobs"? I'm sure those with devious minds could come up with ways to make those and others happen with little chance of detection.
That would be good
@JCG posted:I'm not a really suspicious type but I wonder if some clubs (yeah, I'm looking at you Astros & BoSox) might look for ways to game the coming free agent free-for-all. Off-the-books cash payments? Free housing? Vehicles? Meals? High paying off-season "jobs"? I'm sure those with devious minds could come up with ways to make those and others happen with little chance of detection.
Mlb has shown with the Braves thing that they punish such stuff very hard, much harder than cheating like the astros or red sox did.
That is because owners take salary suppression measures very seriously, they want to keep young player salaries down and if someone games that system like the Braves did that sets a bad precedent that hurts the owners pockets. Owners dont want a bidding war for players especially not on an unofficial level and won't tolerate gaming the salary suppression system.
@LHP's Roady posted:There are already some acceptable incentives beyond the signing bonus. From the email my son got last night from MLB:
"Passed over players are eligible to receive a signing bonus up to $20,000. You may also negotiate for an Incentive Bonus, Contingent Bonus or Continuing Education Program funds (please see Major League Rule 3(c)(5) for details)."
The incentive bonus, contingent bonus, and continuing education program are pretty standard, and spelled out, in the major league rules. (See page 34 on link below, I think). The continuing education plan usually uses the current standard room and board listed at the university the player attends/plans to attend and the player needs to use the funds within 10 years of signing the contract. Plus, it is taxed. So, if your son signs for $20,000 and has only one year left at a $60,000 year school, that bonus (which is taxed) will be eaten up paying the tax on the $60k reimbursement. Just a fyi....
https://registration.mlbpa.org...MajorLeagueRules.pdf
I am really looking forward to the second part of the MLB draft which starts tomorrow. Which teams will sign the highest number of players? Will some teams sign all for $20,000 or various amounts? Given the limits, some teams may be able to lure players better than others based on track records. A son of a long time HSBBWEB poster was in the top 100 players on Baseball America's top unsigned players.
I saw the first Ivy player was ranked 201. A Georgia Tech commit from my state was also on the list. In a way the Undrafted Free Agents is sort of a "senior sign" mentality with the limits on signing bonuses. But the player who falls in this pool (those with one more year of eligibility), may not want to add a year to his Milb age. Yes those who definitely want to start their pro baseball career, who are talented and looked at by several teams at this junction have a level of choice which usually is not the case. Should also be especially interesting to see how many HS players sign. Let the signing begin (Sunday).
57special Jr. used to play against Max Meyer in youth BB and HS. The guy who went #3 overall. The kid is a freak. Might've been a better SS and hitter than a P when he was younger, but I guess the velo just got so high he was encouraged to be a PO.
Some kids are less than their stats and measurables. Not him. The guy is 5'11, and not particularly built. It's kind of a mystery how he gets it done. 100 mph, and I don't think he has ever had arm problems.
@57special posted:57special Jr. used to play against Max Meyer in youth BB and HS. The guy who went #3 overall. The kid is a freak. Might've been a better SS and hitter than a P when he was younger, but I guess the velo just got so high he was encouraged to be a PO.
Some kids are less than their stats and measurables. Not him. The guy is 5'11, and not particularly built. It's kind of a mystery how he gets it done. 100 mph, and I don't think he has ever had arm problems.
He also said in an interview on mlb.com that he never did weighted balls or similar velo training, pretty amazing he still throws that hard at his size.
Attached are the final results of the 2020 MLB Draft, information includes bonus, slot pick value and difference.
# of players drafted = 160
# of players signed = 160
Source of signing bonuses https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker
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