Thoughts on 24s? I don't think it will be cleared up for them. The 2022's are going to face a talent glut and many will go JUCO as a result. They come out just in time to obstruct the 24's. Same goes for this year's unlimited roster kids resulting in bigger cuts next year; a lot of 2020 and 2021 drop downs could clog up JUCO for 2 years and come out in time to block the 24's. The ripple effect.
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2024’s are just becoming freshmen. If your kid is a jaw dropping, pro prospect stud you already know how recruiting will go. If he’s not it’s too early to even think about it. If he’s a genuine D1 prospect (outside major pro prospect) the summer after freshman year sets up getting on the right travel team to be seen by the right college programs. If he’s not a D1 prospect he has until after his soph year to set himself up for the right travel team. You can’t control the COVID ripple. It will flatten out at some point.
I suppose that is possible in some scenarios but keep in mind, most colleges that use JC kids are the same schools that do so year after year. Many schools do not. So, if you are a 2024 looking to be recruited by a 4-yr where you have a shot to contribute sooner than later, I don't think it is that much of a factor. If I'm a '24, I am thanking God that I'm not graduating sooner and that this whole thing is likely to at least take significant steps by then back toward the old normal. Just don't forget... under the "old normal" circumstances, the college recruiting is very tough anyway.
Truthfully I think it's a little silly to try to figure out the impact year by year. My college sophomore (third year of college, slated to graduate this year, three years of eligibility left) will have to battle hot new recruits for the next couple of years, along with likely a shorter draft.
Hot new recruits will have to face off with veterans with a year or two of experience. It's going to stink from top to bottom.
I can't predict what the various entities involved in the decision will do. But the bottom line doesn't change. The players who work hardest and are most focused likely will find the most success.
@Iowamom23 posted:Truthfully I think it's a little silly to try to figure out the impact year by year. My college sophomore (third year of college, slated to graduate this year, three years of eligibility left) will have to battle hot new recruits for the next couple of years, along with likely a shorter draft.
Hot new recruits will have to face off with veterans with a year or two of experience. It's going to stink from top to bottom.
I can't predict what the various entities involved in the decision will do. But the bottom line doesn't change. The players who work hardest and are most focused likely will find the most success.
Good post.
Way too early to discuss 2024. Too early to committ as well.
I don't think that it's going to be as bad as some may think it will be. Not every coach in the country is going to give a player a fifth year. It's unaffordable.
Also, IMO, if I am a coach, I would take a hot new freshman over a 5th year senior any day. I don't even understand why the NCAA felt the need to give EVERYONE in all sports that option.
@TPM I can also see it smoothing out in a couple years for mainly 2 reasons. College ain't cheap, and being old/wise isn't usually viewed as a good quality in a baseball player.
@ReluctantO'sFan posted:@TPM I can also see it smoothing out in a couple years for mainly 2 reasons. College ain't cheap, and being old/wise isn't usually viewed as a good quality in a baseball player.
Agree to an extent but on the other hand, "proven performer at this level" is highly valued. Totally agree with Iowamom that it makes no sense to worry about or try to figure out all the details that far out. Work hard. Play hard. Enjoy the game. Keep an eye on goals and see where things go.
Quick scan of the transfer tracker on D1B shows about 175 graduate transfers have successfully found a new home. There must be some value in old/wise, which for some may be better defined as players that have proven they can handle the rigors of D1 athletics and academic progress. I would think a coach would also have a good idea of what level of performance to expect from a guy with four years of resume at the college level. Not to mention maturity in the locker room. The hot new freshman will always find a place, it's the guys a few down from the top of the incoming freshmen list who will have to compete hard with the Juco/grad transfers. I think the older guys have the advantage in that scenario. Just my opinion.
The graduate transfers who are a notch below signing but can help put a team over the top to a conference title won’t have trouble finding places to play. These players have to have immediate impact.
A top program that gives their top recruits nice $$ to come to the program isn't going to just have them sit. They are the future of the program, not 5th year seniors. They need to get in the game. Older team members are always needed for majority in the locker room. But not more than a few. If this not true why would top programs have their juniors take minimum money to go play professional bb? Because they had to make room for their new recruits!
I hate to fallback on "when my son was in college", but there was no roster limit at that time. Who put in the most work, the top freshman who gave up draft or were on almost full scholrships. They struggled, but by seasons end, they proved they belonged. It hasn't changed. But again those are for the top programs in the country.
Some programs rely heavily on JUCO players because the best freshman usually get scooped up by the top programs.
Why would a graduate student want to continue to play? Graduate players usually will get part of their grad school paid for, so they won't cut into the 11.7 in D1. They also make great graduate assistants the following year!
JMO
@RJM posted:The graduate transfers who are a notch below signing but can help put a team over the top to a conference title won’t have trouble finding places to play. These players have to have immediate impact.
Remember Chefmike? His son was a grad student at Alabama and got drafted by the Cardinals.
new to current college baseball, so please correct me if my grasp of how it works is incorrect, but I'm seeing:
the elite programs are going to get the top kids out of HS and weed them out and keep the very best. generally speaking their guys are going to be run off to make room for freshmen or drafted by their Jr year and not be around for their Sr year. there aren't going to be many elite guys coming out of JUCO and going to 4-year schools because they are drafted out of JUCO instead. elite guys generally aren't going to be available on the grad transfer market because they too would have gone Pro their Jr. year. elite programs might take some solid JUCO/Grad guys, but probably only to shore up a hole when the HS guys didn't pan out. for instance Arkansas brought in 2 Grad Xfers at Catcher and convinced a 2021 to reclassify as a 2020 when they discovered Opitz was likely to draft, Tamez left the program and Tollett was injured much 2020. they were likely going to be very thin at C and needed a quick fix. turned out the 5 round draft had Opitz returning to campus, so the 2021 stayed down and the grad x-fers weren't needed.
it's schools the next tier down that are going to lean on the grad Xfers and JUCO guys because they are seasoned and can help win right now. those programs can't get the elite HS kids because every HS kid wants to go to the same 5 or so schools (Vandy, etc). if those kids don't stick at the elite program they have burned a almost a year and drop down to a JUCO for a year and finally come back to a 4-year program in their 3rd year. most are draft eligible and likely to take peanuts from MLB because they are disillusioned from 3 different programs in 3 years and not making it at their elite dream school. there are always exceptions. but generally that's how I've pieced it together at this point. am I close?
Some programs rely heavily on JUCO players because the best freshman usually get scooped up by the top programs.
Years ago Robbie Wine became the head coach at Penn State. He’s been gone a while now. He came from being an assistant at Oklahoma State. He went for the quick rebuild at PSU. It worked. All of a sudden half the roster TX/OK/KS JuCo transfers. PSU hasn’t been decent since.
@bandera
Close yes, not exact, depends on the situation. Hard to go by anything this year due to COVID and going forward. JUCO isn't exclusive to mid, lower D1, elite programs recruit 2 year guys when they have a lot of players drafted (in a normal year).
Elite programs don't necessarily, "weed" out. But you will see transfers from elite programs that may have been walk ones, go down to JUCO to transfer back to D1. That's a lot of transferring and not careful could be a loss in credits.
I think the whole recruiting landscape will change if the draft stays at the proposed 20 rounds as many coaches draft players who will be drafted in 3 years and may have been late round picks.
@TPM can you explain more what you mean? If I read it correctly, fewer draft rounds will continue to up the level of competition for college spots. So while we won't see the extreme crunch we are seeing now for 2021s, the new normal is going to be increased talent at every level of college baseball... If that is what you are saying, I agree and think it is the elephant in the room. COVID may have been the catalyst but the change is more profound and will continue to make each level of college baseball more competitive.
FWIW, it doesn't change any advice to a 2024. Focus on improving your game because that's the only thing you can control.
@PTWood posted:@TPM can you explain more what you mean? If I read it correctly, fewer draft rounds will continue to up the level of competition for college spots. So while we won't see the extreme crunch we are seeing now for 2021s, the new normal is going to be increased talent at every level of college baseball... If that is what you are saying, I agree and think it is the elephant in the room. COVID may have been the catalyst but the change is more profound and will continue to make each level of college baseball more competitive.
FWIW, it doesn't change any advice to a 2024. Focus on improving your game because that's the only thing you can control.
PT,
So when son was drafted it was 50 rounds. Some teams dropped out at the end.
The later rounds usually were seniors, Juniors, maybe some JUCO, HS. I don't know what it was prior to this year, 40? So that's like 600 that would have been drafted.
It will be interesting to see if HS players will go to college, or sign out of HS, as it seems there will be less chances for the draft. I also think JUCO players might go as well.
Let's address this scenes in is a few years. 
I wanted to correct something. As far as grad students, some get from the 11.7, some get academic, some may get money from other sources, and others get nothing.
I don't have anything helpful to offer on 2024s other than - nobody really does.
To touch on the juco thing - juco baseball will be better, but where it's already good. Programs like Chipola, San Jacinto, and throughout FL, TX, OK will have more P5 talent coming in because of oversized rosters, but let's not pretend like PA, MD, and NY are suddenly going to become juco hotspots.
To add on, programs who were already pulling from jucos are still going to do so. And programs who rarely went that route, aren't likely to start picking off 5 juco transfers a year.
I really don't see recruiting changing a ton aside from roster/money issues. What I see is a lot of guys heading the juco route after not playing as a freshman and somebody who would've been on said roster a year or two ago now just getting run out of college baseball. More juco players ≠ more 2 --> 4 guys. Still only 9 guys on the field. You have to play to move on to a 4 year school.
The echo chamber that can be HS baseball web is amazing
