Don’t care to argue, but also feel it is important to understand the importance of speed and the other tools.
Instincts come into play in many different areas (fielding, hitting, running, etc.) Good instincts are vitally important, scouts and coaches notice good instincts. However, good instincts by itself is rarely enough to make someone a top class baseball player. Instincts without any tools would sadly come in second to tools period.
It is true that a slow runner can have outstanding instincts, but the faster runner will get to 1B quicker and with just a little training will go 2B to Home or 1B to 3B quicker. Great instincts without speed will not allow a player to succeed at certain positions at the higher levels.
2 tenths of a second is approximately one full stride. Don’t know if the greatest instincts in a slow runner vs the worst instincts in a speedster can equal a full stride in 90 feet or more!
One only needs to watch the start of any 60 yard sprint to realize… Hardly ever will you see someone get a full stride jump over another runner. The difference between 6.7 and 7.5 in the 60 is 4 full strides or approximately 25 feet. The 6.7 runner with equal instincts to the 7.5 runner will finish approximately 25 feet ahead of the slower runner. The 6.7 runner who starts one full stride behind the 7.5 runner, still finishes 3 full strides ahead. Instincts come into play much more in very short distances ie. 10 feet. Yes, this is very important in many cases, but the bases are 90 feet apart.
Knowledge, decision making, feel for the game, and instincts help tremendously, but they can not replace speed! Yes, fast runners can be, and sometimes are, bad baserunners. Yes, slow runners can be smart baserunners. Now, you need to figure out the overall package. As some examples in above posts… there have been very fast, yet poor baserunners, at the highest levels. The slow guys who play at the highest level are there because they can hit and do the other things… they are not there because of their base stealing threat or to cause havoc on the bases.
In addition to Mickey Rivers being less than a great baserunner, he had one of the worst arms in MLB history. He was a below average fielder and so-so hitter. Yet he played a long time at the highest level possible because of his speed.
Herb Washington is a bad example because he wasn’t even a baseball player. To be a world class sprinter you need to have good instincts or be left in the starting blocks. He just didn’t have baseball instincts and more importantly experience. However, I would bet Herb Washington on 1B trying to score on a double would beat any slow guy with great instincts to the plate and by a long ways! It’s not that hard to teach someone how to round the bases.
There is way too much involved to say anything stands alone and can be mastered without experience, training, instruction, etc. However, pure speed is one of 5 major tools and to discount it as unimportant could cause young players to feel it is not important to work on and improve.
If all a player can do is run a 6.3 60 yards, but absolutely nothing else, he will not reach the highest levels. (Exception – The Herb Washington experiment) If he can do the things “Moc1” mentions (Wow the scouts with 60 yd speed, 90 mph arm, towering BP HRs) He WILL be evaluated in game conditions, it’s a guarantee! He could also project nicely despite being RAW at the time. His present playability might cause him to drop in draft position, but he will still be considered a prospect because of his 3 plus tools! ( taking for granted they really are 3 plus tools) ie. 90 mph arm doesn’t always mean it’s a plus tool!
I think it’s fine and even accurate to talk about the importance of instincts, feel for the game, decision making ability, toughness, work ethic, and everything that is part of the total package. One just needs to understand the importance of the tools and yes RAW ability.
Only reason I posted this is because way too often on this site, I read how velocity, speed, power and other very important things are really not that important. Yes, the other stuff is also very important, but young players should understand the importance of the basic “tools” and do everything possible to improve those tools! That’s only if they really want to advance as far as possible!
I now expect, those who disagree to post a few exceptions to what has been mentioned above. The great thing about baseball is there will always be exceptions to just about everything.