90's

A lot more than you think.  every year at Jupiter they have over 150 at that tournament.  

Very few....if you think about how many high school baseball players there are, or even how many college pitching spots are available, the amount of HS pitchers hitting 90's is a small percentage.  Having said that, I do believe there are many more kids hitting 90+ than ever before....I am NOT sure that is a good thing...not all ligaments / tendons are meant to sustain the forces required to throw 90. 

Uh, the fact that there are 150 at Jupiter has very little to do with how many throw 90 in HS. Nobody's going to Jupiter who isn't a prospect.

 

My son plays at a HS in the largest classification in GA.  In 3 seasons of watching HS ball, I've seen two guys hit 90 in a HS game.  One was Travis Demeritte, who was a first rounder to Texas, the other is Dakota Chalmers.  Chalmers gets rumored at various times to be "sitting 98".  I have no doubt he's hit 98 on a gun somewhere at some point, but he was sitting 91 when I saw him pitch a couple weeks ago and Demeritte was a better pitcher at 91 than Chalmers is right now (Chalmers is much more obviously projectable given his frame, but isn't anywhere near the position player that Demeritte was).

 

Anyway, besides those two I've seen two other travel guys hit 90, both on the Evoshield Canes in last year's 16u WWBA. I've heard of lots of guys who throw 90+, and everyone on my son's HS team was "high 80s", apparently except for when I was at the games, I've gotten accustomed to only believing it when I see it. High 80s is rare enough, and impressive enough, in it's own right.

+1!  When you factor in how many HS students play HS baseball, those throwing 90+ are still relatively rare, though it is a growing number.

 

During the years my son played HS ball, I knew of only one who threw over 90 (one of his teammates).  A few more threw 85-88.  The rest were high 70's to low 80's at best.

One big variable is "touched" 90+ or "sitting" 90+ . . .Touched 90 probably quite a few; sitting 90+ is very rare.

 

For instance, the difference between peak fastball velocity and average fastball velocity for the top 20 kids at Jupiter last fall is pretty interesting: http://www.baseballamerica.com...ackman-leaderboards/ Usually it's a couple of mph. In some cases more. 

 

That same article also notes that the average fastball velocity at "elite college conferences" (SEC, PAC-12, etc.) is 89 mph and the average fastball velocity of high draft picks (rounds 1-3) is 91 mph. Given that data, my takeaway is that there can't be very many high school kids averaging 90+. But people tend to remember the exceptions -- I know I do. The very first varsity high school game I ever saw (I was in 9th grade, and had stopped by to watch the varsity), everyone said that the opposing pitcher was throwing 90+. It certainly seemed like it to my 14-year-old eyes! Funny thing is, he probably was -- the opposing pitcher was Mark Gubicza, and later that Spring he was drafted in the second round, and a few years later he was in the majors.

 

       
       
Love the numbers.  Thanks.  But I guess when we say rare or on the flip side quite a few that always means different things to different people.  Are those 150 all from the same class?  How many big prospects don't go there?  Let's say we double that number and make it 300.  Further lets say they are all seniors.  That is 6 per state.  And since california and texas are going to have way more than their share its maybe 3? For a state like mine (wisconsin).  That's still pretty rare in my opinion.  And consider there are 300 D1 schools so that would only be one per school.  I still say there are not that many hs pitchers even touching 90.  But again it is a subjective thing.

I remember watching a state showcase and I counted roughly 40 in one state that had touched 90 at some point.  That's about one per 12-15 HS.

 

Please, if you don't know the difference between 'sitting' and 'touching', don't comment

I am with jacjacatk here.  Here in VA each year there are probably 2-3 guys most years in the whole state that have the bona fides of being 90+ regularly.  Probably another 15 or so that can get there occasionally but ride in the 87/88 range. 

 

Since the typically HS pitcher is 83/84 seeing a guy hump it up there regularly at 88 with the occasional 90 is an eye opener for most people. 

 

If you think about it - according to the Dept. of Education there are 37,000 HS in the US (including privates).  If all of most schools are playing baseball that implies about 150,000 kids pitching in games (assumed 4 per team).  If even 200 are throwing 90 (I doubt that many are) that is .001 of all pitchers in HS.  That is 1/10 of 1% or 1 every 200 teams or so.  How far would you have to travel to see 200 HS teams?  For me it would probably be about 50 mile radius and I live in one of the 40 largest metro area's in the US.  In my area I saw one, and not surprisingly he won 1 state championship and pitched them to the final one other time but couldn't go in the final and they lost by 1 run to the other guy in the state throwing 90+

 

They are very rare birds and even though they cluster at places like Jupiter a true 90+ guy is almost always a prospect.  With a real breaking ball he's probably near or an actual 1st rounder as are most of the lefties with that velo.

       
       
First I will assume you are just having a bad day and you didn't mean that to sound confrontational.  Second I assure you I am well aware of the difference between cruising and touching.  Third the number on PG or PBR represents the 'best FB' in other words what they can 'touch'.  I peruse these reports constatly.  Love that PG has a separate tab just for FB velocities.  So unless I am wrong that these velocities are best not average I have yet to see one of these reports with an overabundance of 90+ guys.  Please send the link to those showcase results.  40-50 guys from one state (especially if its not cal. or tex.) Would be truly amazing.

I'm going to challenge the premise that the typical HS pitcher is throwing 83-84. I don't believe it is even that high unless you're limiting yourself to only the upper classifications and, even then, to the best programs. What I see (ueah, I'm that guy that guns everybody) in Colorado at the 3A level (enrollments average right at 600), is that something around 80-81 is typical for your top two pitchers with a drop for everyone under that. At a recent PBR showcase here that attracted the best juniors in the state for a Sunbelt Classic tryout, there were two who touched 90 and another that touched 88. A handful were above 85.

As usual we agree root (maybe cause we are both old guys who have seen our share of hs baseball).  Yes the best of the best schools probably average that and maybe even a bit higher.  But agree more like 80-82 for most.

It is a fair comment.  The District I watch the most is one of the most competitive in VA with schools in the 1700-2100 range and produced two State Champions last season and has been in the final in 3 of the last 4 seasons.  Typically the 3/4 top teams will have at least 2 or 3 DI prospects in the lineups and sometimes 6 or 7.  Most years there are at least 1 or 2 legitimate professional prospects in the league somewhere. 

 

When they got to regionals it was very common for the pitching there to be somewhat lessor than what they saw from their top competition during the season.

 

So if my 83/84 is inflated which I will stipulate...it makes that 88 guy even more like Nolan Ryan.

My son plays in the largest classification in Florida.  Even here a guy sitting at 90+ isn't common.

 

Our school has a senior who tops out at 91-92 but really cruises around 87.  We have a junior who has been clocked at 93 and cruises 88, but he's pretty wild.  When he is on though, he is pretty much unhittable for most batters.

 

Ironically, we have another junior in our school who has been clocked at 93 but because of grades/work ethic/attitude, he isn't even on the team - and will never have the GPA to be on it.

In my local area that comprises 10-12 high schools of around 800-2000 students I have seen two kids in the past 6 years that throw 90 plus.  One got drafted in the supplemental round two years ago and one will get drafted this year.  He hit 97 in a HS game last week.  A much higher number in the mid-high 80's.  In HS you don't have to throw hard to be effective.  

90 mph is uncommon, even rare in some places.

 

There are many HS pitchers that can touch 90 mph or better.  There are far less that can average 90 mph or better. Even though there are many that have done it, the percentages are still low.

 

What is more difficult to dispute is how much things have changed over the years.  20 years ago it was hard to find a HS kid that could throw 90mph.  It was exciting when you ran across one of them. In fact, kids throwing 86/87 were extra special. 

 

Probably the biggest change we have seen over those 20 years is the increase in velocity. The number of kids these days that can throw mid 90s, even higher, is amazing to me. Would never had guessed that back 20 years ago.

 

Taking that a step farther, I read somewhere that there are some 50 pitchers in MLB that  have touched 100 mph or better!  I truly believe there are more pitchers, right now today, that can throw 100 mph, than there were total for the past 100 years.

 

My question... Why is this happening?  Bigger and Stronger? Better training and conditioning? Better knowledge? PEDs? 

 

It's no secret that this big change in velocity coincides with the spike in TJ surgeries.

 

 

+1 -- mentioned before myself....there are more kids throwing 90+ than ever before, however for "most" their bodies are not built to sustain that. 

Living in Idaho, we don't see many guys who throw 90, but it does happen once in awhile.  My son's team has three guys that can touch 86 or better, but generally these guys are cruising at 82 - 85.  I would say that there aren't too many that touch 85 in the whole league.

I doubt there are more arm problems now than 100 years ago.  Pitchers got "dead arms" all the time and faded away.  Our diagnostic ability has improved and thus our treatments.  So guys you never heard of would have had very long careers 100 years ago...if TJ was an option for them. 

 

If you have never heard of Pete Donohue look him up.  Potential HOF guy who invented the change up but blew up his arm at 25 after winning over 100 games.  Ended up with only 30 wins after age 25.  He'd have finished with at least 250 wins and possibly 300 with today's medicine.  

       
       
I was just having this conversation with a couple guys last night.  Truth is we will never know cause any of these.kids who flamed out at 16 50 years ago we have no data on.  There could be more now but.there may not be.  Simple truth is we just don't know.  We also know that 100mph guys have been around since the beginning of the game.  However there are way more now.  So does that say risk has increased or does that say better conditioning and LACK of overuse has resulted in more guys throwing hard?  One day soon we may have all these answers with all the data being gathered at showcases these days.  But for now we are left to guess.

I'd say it is reasonable to think there are more traumatic injuries now than before because the kids are bigger and stronger so the strain on the joints almost has to be more than ever before.

 

So there are more tears and ruptures as a result.  In addition the ability to detect these things is better from year to year.  There is a canyon in diagnosis tools from the 70's compared to now...all I can hear is Dr. McCoy....JIM....My God these people are Witch Doctors!. 

Most, if not all Ortho's will state that the harder you throw, the more potential damage you are subjected to....actually sounds like common sense.  The overhead throwing motion is not a very normal arm movement, and it would make sense that the harder you throw, the more strain you put on all of the soft tissues / connective tissues that sustain micro tears / strains every outing.  One of the main reasons that Brady Aiken was not signed as the #1 draft of the Astros, was they discovered during his medicals, that he had an unusually thin UCL, and throwing at those velocities they were worried.

 

I am sure there have been hard throwing pitchers since back in the day, however never before have we had as many high velocity pitchers as we have in modern day baseball.  Even though there were not the medical treatments, nor testing equipment available back in the day, I believe the fact that there are so many more high velo guys, would only make sense the result would be more injuries.

I'm guessing most of the posters here have (or had) kids playing in large classification schools and/or well regarded travel/showcase programs. In tracel you get used to seeing a lot of cruising speed of 85-89. In high school the typical hard thrower is in the mid 80s. The slower pitchers tend to be at 82 in large high schools.

 

But a lot of high school baseball is played below this level. Where my son grew up the typical hard throwing Legion kid was cruising 82 (the best players played travel). We went to see one of his travel teammates play a small high school district playoff game. The kid couldn't dream of pitching for the travel team. He dominated his high school league cruising 82 with a decent change. While watching the game my son turned to me and said, "These pitchers aren't hitting 80. This would be batting practice."

Agree with your statement. Throwing hard causes injuries.  

Also, Sultan makes a good point about touching 90 vs throwing 90.  Touching means one is capable og hitting higher velocity.  It doesnt mean a hefty scholarhip or a draft pick (speaking HS only).

I have seen a HS pitcher throwing over 90 yet he most likely is at his physical peak. Then there is the lanky baby faced pitcher touching ninety getting more attention.

JMO, I believe there is a lot of pressure placed on young pitchers to throw harder and harder. That can create an injury sooner rather than later. 

JMO

I agreewith others that we are seeing injuries quite simply as teenagers and young men reach physical limits. 

 

My son has a summer teammate who has always been one of the harder throwers. I work with his dad so know them well.  This kid has not ever pitched in a game or showcase from Sept 1-end of December.  in other words not overused. 

 

Works his tail off this fall and winter in the gym.  Pitches well in the preseason and in first start strikes out 5 of first 8 and sitting 95-96.  Last batter of the third feels a pop and knows. Two weeks later has TJ likely to never pitch for his HS team again. Maybe some first base of his senior year. 

 

I was at the game. His dad goes behind the dugout and comes back to me. First words to me  "I think it really was inevitable". IMO most these 90+ guys will face this inevitably. 

Here is my dilemma. Did he encourage him to throw harder, did he make sure his workouts were pitcher specific, what pitches did he throe? throw.  Inevitable may not have necessarily become a reality.

The risk is worth the reward, but if you get hurt before the scholarship, was the risk worth is?

TPM I completely get where you are coming from.  

 

In this case I think they did everything right. No breaking balls until HS. Worked out with a Cressey trained guy. On and on. 

 

Quite frankly IMO my own son would be at much greater risk based on his youth baseball experience. Caught and pitched a lot.  Plenty of breaking balls.  Only difference is mine only touches 86-87. 

Maybe not. Most research leads me to believe breaking pitches SAVE wear on the arm compared to those who throw a steady diet of fastballs. Less stress on the elbow from a curve than a fastball. See Nissen, "A Biomechanical Evaluation of the Kinetics for Multiple Pitching Techniques in College-Aged Pitchers." Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine. October 2013 vol. 1 no. 5      

 

Hypothesis of that study: The curveball and slider/cutter produce greater moments on the shoulder and elbow compared with the fastball and change-up.

 

Conclusion of that study: This study shows that the fastball and not the curveball or slider/cutter produced the greatest moments on the college pitcher’s          glenohumeral and elbow joints, as previously believed. The study also shows that the change-up may be the safest of the 4 pitch types analyzed.         

I have a bit of a quirky and unsubstantiated theory (aren't those always fun). I believe that a huge factor in arm injuries is genetic makeup - simply the idea that some are born with ligaments that are better able to sustain high velocity pitching over longer periods of time without damage. In the past, pitchers threw a lot more at earlier ages. It was not unusual in high school to see a team throw a kid in back-to-back starts in back-to-back days well over a 100 pitches per outing. Back then, when you blew out an arm, you didn't go to the doctor and you certainly didn't even entertain the idea of surgery. You either pitched through it (ineffectually) or you stopped pitching. Injuries like this were undocumented (much like knee injuries in football in the old days).  Today, we do so much better. We don't abuse pitchers the way we used to and when they are hurt, we get medical evaluations almost immediately. Heck, we even have a surgery for those guys with torn ucls. Back then, practically the only pitchers who made i tot the majors were those who were genetically gifted with the ability to have made it through the gauntlet of relentless overuse. Only the strongest survived. Today, we are able to keep kids healthy enough to reach their peak potential. We even often keep pitchers who, thirty to forty years ago, would have been out of the game by their teen years, healthy long enough to make the majors. This means a bigger pool of pitchers who can reach high velocities, but it also means more injuries as many of those kids are pitchers who were not genetically superior and, therefor, lucky to have kept healthy long enough to even get to the pros.

Root -

 

I think you are pretty close to the truth.  Some guys will do everything right and still blow out their arms.  Some guys will do everything wrong and never have issues.

 

There's probably a group in the middle too.  If handled properly, they don't have issues.

 

Although I guess the big mystery is - which group do our kids fall into?

 

I had a ten year old on my team one year blow out his elbow.  Only played rec ball.  Didn't pitch very often.  His mechanics were the same as most ten year olds.  One day he was playing 1st base and went to throw the ball back to the pitcher.  Next thing you know he is on the ground screaming in pain.  Medial epicondylar avulsion.  Had to be surgically repaired.  Never had any pain prior.  Just one day it snapped.

 

       
       
And there you have it suds.  You get to watch the best of the best and there are still only a handful even touching 90.  In most places there are entire conferences without one.  I maintain 90's guys are still pretty rare.  More than ever, yes.  Plentiful,  no.  And unless there are some other issues it is still getting you D1 somewhere.

My son just finished his senior year and has played on varsity team for four years so we have seen lots of arms over the years.  In the last game of the year we faced a kid throwing in the 90s, had an mlb scout at the game and everything.  I heard he hit 95 and stayed consistently 91-92.  He is the only kid in 4 years that i recall actually throwing 90 +.  We faced some others that people said hit 90, but in my opinion they were probably mid to upper 80s.  90+ consistently is pretty rare.

While I love the studies that you post, I want to add son never had a issue until he developed a true slider and threw it more often than he probably should have, even in his early 20's.  

I beleive that he stayed healthy because he relied a lot on the slower 2 seam and change up when younger, and he didnt lift when he was young either.  Most youth players, who also pitch, do not follow a proper conditioning program for pitchers, IMO.   This can put more stress on the body, again IMO.  And I do agree that FB at higher velos does cause more injury.

I also agree that all bodies are not created equal.  

 

However, in the words of my sons ortho (pretty well known), he will tell you, if you pitch, you will suffer an injury (or two or three) at some point in your career.

 

 

Good post.

IMO there are a lot of parents out there putting the gun on their young sons (still in middle school) and what happens, they throw harder than they really should.

 

There are 52 pitchers in milb that can hit 100.  I wonder just how many will ever make it to MLB.

There's a couple kids in WA state that can get you a 90 here or there. As far as truly being 88-92 (which is the minimum for "throwing 90" IMO), there's probably just one, a 6'0" RHP here.

 

Our state is pretty poor for baseball, unfortunately.

 

EDIT: Er, wait. I forgot about Parker McFadden (WSU commit) who touched 97 in a game and sits low-90s. Parker is living 90+ comfortably.

I believe our top pitchers in GA have settled a bit with some having dead arms this spring, and others not continuing the radical Velo climb from the fall last year but we have several kids who can flat out sling it. I agree that touching versus, sitting /living is a big difference but when you an run it up there 93-96, live in the 88/89-91-92 range and have a good secondary or better than that a third that is above avg, you are very good. My son is on that list from Jupiter and was probably the smallest pitcher there, on top of that a Righty...so he is genetically doomed to be undervalued and rarely considered projectable, that will be proven out in the draft as all of the >6' will go earlier. Our HS pitching staff is loaded and we are set up for 3 game series in the playoffs, we see the other side in every series with our opponents...they throw their first, best guy and if he has decent velo...it's a steep decline after that. Usually, we see lefties who dont throw hard due to "strategery" by the opposing coaches. I would'nt want to face us, we have 2 kids who are 88-91 & 90-93, with secondaries and then we roll out 2 86-88 guys with good 2nd pitches. We have a special group and this could be our time if we execute. I know this is an anomaly, thought i would give insight on what we see in 6A ball in Georgia.