After Glavine

Unless the Big Unit can find relief from his back trouble, I don't think it will happen for awhile. You may have to wait for some of the young pitchers that have a long way to go, like Hamels or Cain.
Funny, people said the same thing after Maddux got to 300.

spizzlepop


the Big Unit is having too many back surgeries to have hope---I think aftert his next surgery he retires

The problem is that today pitchers leave a game in the 6th or 7th inning and the bullpen loses it for them, see Glavine the other nite when he lost #300 because of the pen---and how many pitchers last 20 years in this era---not too many and 20 years means you neeed to win at least 15 games every year---aint a easy chore

quote:

Originally posted by ClevelandDad:
I disagree. Players can still win a lot of games. It takes some luck and good health over time along with boat loads of talent. I see young candidates in the American League right now like Johan Santanna, CC Sabathia, and others who have the potential to do it. Sure the game has become specialized but they still leave the true horses in the game for as long as possible imho.

The problem is predicting which guys will stay healthy to not only make all of their starts each year, but also pitch at least into their early 40's. In the case of the most recent 300 game winners (Clemens, Maddux, and I'll include Glavine for arguments sake) these guys got to the big leagues young, and have mostly avoided the DL (completely avoided the DL for Glavine) into their early 40's. It's just too difficult to predict which current pitcher's can stay that healthy for that long. I love Johan and CC and others, but nobody can say with any certainty that they'll be healthy for the next 15 years.

Here's some guys who have a better shot than most.
Sabathia 27 yrs 94 wins could have 100 this yr
Zambrano 27 yrs 79 wins
Bonderman 24 yrs 55 wins could have 60 this yr
Peavy 26 yrs ? wins
Verlander 24 yrs will need a lot of 15+ win yrs
F Hernandez 21 yrs 28 wins
All must stay healthy, play on winning teams or dominate, pitch into the 7th often, and play until 40+. My guess is that 1 or more mat have a shot
Santana has to be on a winning team and the twinkies don't want to spend to win often enough.
I like Bonderman's chances as well as any. Good innings guy, good team now, still only 24 and he's been in the league for 5+ yrs.

I agree with TR, going to be a long, long time due to starters leaving after 5,6 and the bull pen not getting the job done.

Also, Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz pitched in the era of Brave domination in pitching and hitting and when players didn't jump around as they do now. That's not the norm any more for both teams.

I think it will be quite sometime before we see some someone else reach this milestone for ALL of the reasons already listed...

CoachRic lists some good canidates, but one that's missing is Mussina who I "think" has about 250+- wins and is 36ish? Does he have a chance??? I'd LOVE to see Mussina win 300....

It's also interesting to note that "most" of the recent pitchers that are nearing or who have achieved this goal, like Glavine and Maddux,have done it through the art of pitching.... not with 99 mph fastballs.......

CD

Glavine had # 300 in his last start and the bullpen blew it for him---this goes on regularly---makes it tough to get the wins after 6 or 7 great innings if the bullpen is not strong and how many are?

No doubt someone will win 300 again just may be a while. Never is a very bold statement

How many years in a row did the Braves go to the playoffs. Glavine is awesome as displayed tonight but you also need to be on good teams year after year. No injuries, great manager, etc. The odds are against anyone having a shot at 300.

deldad


It is also bold to think that todays pitchers will see enough innings and games to get to 300 wins

By the way my hat is off to the Cubbie fans for the way they treated Glavine as he won the game---nice to see the congratulatory signs hanging in a foes stadium---class act

With all the talk about Phil Neikro last night, it made me think.

Maybe Tim Wakefield will get there ... if he pitches into his 50's!

The greatest detriment to pitchers getting 300 wins today is the five man rotation.

If on average a pitcher gets 30 starts and maintains a winning percentage of around .600, he would win 18 games a year.

A pitcher would have to maintain that pace for about 17 years to reach 300.

All the intangibles would meld into the equation. ( Good teams, good relif pitching, few injuries )

It is doable if pitchers can maintain the stamina and performance to last for the duration.

Actually win avg. is calculated based only on decisions, not starts.

I think I heard the TV guys say that Roger Clemens' 350th win came in his 695th start. That's one of the best in baseball history, and he's won only a hair more than half of his starts. The other half were losses and no-decisions.

If a front line pitcher stays healthy and gets 33 starts/year, he could average 17 wins/year. So, if he could manage to stay off the DL and stay top notch, he could make it -- someewhere into his 19th season. Really what you need is a guy who can make like Fergie Jenkins and run off 5 straight 20+ win seasons somewhere along the line.

I'm sure it'll happen someday. Records are made to be broken. When I was young, people said Gehrig's record was the one that would never get broken. Now they say the same about Ripken's record.

But I don't see anybody in MLB today who'll make it there. Barring a miraculous recovery by Randy Johnson, or Mike Mussina taking up the knuckleball, I think it'll be another generation at least before we see someone cross that threshold.