any future for the slower pitchers???

CaCO3Girl posted:

Dannyball17 posted:

I won't say you're wrong or even that  I totally disagree but velocity is 4th on the list of importance on any chart I've ever read .. its; Location, Movement, deception and velocity.. this might not even be true , but velocity is the only thing that can be measured, so it stands out. 

But think about it. RA Dickey won the Cy Young a few years ago throwing at about 70mph.. Jamie Moyer, and now Jared Weaver isn't breaking 85 .. its more than velocity but people are more comfortable going with the fastest thrower now - if he doesn't work out they can say .. well he threw 95 wth? not my fault he was a bust..

Carl Erskin was 160 lbs and still his record for strike-outs in a world series game, stands .. I believe the trend will go back to finese guys with a lot of movement .. just my opinion. 

 

Dannyball, I know less than nothing about what it takes to succeed as a pitcher....BUT.....I always got the impression that you were right in a way.  It does go location, movement, deception and velocity....AFTER you are over 90mph. Many people on the board that have had sons make it very far in the baseball world, hopefully they can chime in.

At the higher levels of D1 velocity starts at ninety. The pitchers may not cruise ninety. But they touch it. 

Dickey throws a knuckleball. His fastball velocity is irrelevant. Moyer wasn't successful until into his thirties when he had knowledge and guile on his side. He was fortunate enough to hang around until he improved. Weaver had good velocity when he was younger. Like Maddux experience replaced a 90+ mph fastball. Erskine is from multiple generations ago. These examples are anecdotal compared to the norm.

Once again regarding DIII, there is such a huge difference between the upper and lower levels.

For the most part the very best programs are looking for DI type talent or players/pitchers that can develop to be that type. Lots of mid to high 80 types.

The majority are looking for the best possible players that they can get admitted. This obviously varies depending on the academic requirements.  Lots of 80 mph types.

The lower levels are mostly interested in recruiting students that want to play baseball.  MPH isn't that important.

Because of the above, some people claim there is a college for everyone to play at.

Often people get confused when they see a pitcher throwing 85 at best in a DI game.  So they wonder why their pitcher who tops out at 85 isn't getting a lot of interest.  Thing is, that pitcher throwing 85 in the DI game is probably, capable of throwing with much more velocity.  He just becomes more effective when he dials it down.  Chances are he showed better velocity than that when he was recruited.

The best example of this would be Greg Maddux.  When he started his pro career he was a power pitcher.  After awhile he learned that he could add more movement, accuracy and durability by dialing it down.  So his 88-90 fastball became effortless.  Now everyone uses him as an example of someone that was greatly successful without big velocity.  But the truth is he did have great velocity.  That is what got him drafted.

So what we see the velocity they are throwing isn't always the velocity they are capable of throwing.  Then again in some cases you will see their max velocity most of the time if they are most effective that way.

When my son was in high school I started attending college games at all levels. One of the A10 teams played within biking distance of our home. I asked a scout what was the tropical velocity of a starter in the league. He said 85-87. Relievers were a little higher. I asked the same question at a CAA game. I got the same answer. At Big East and ACC games it was easy to see the pitchers threw harder. 

When watching Centennial and NESCAC games the velocity was all over the place. What surprised me one day was watching a 6'4", 215 pitcher. Physically he looked like the stereotypical hard thrower. He threw low 80s. A friend's son went into D3 throwing 84 and came out throwing 92. He was drafted. Being drafted someday when he finished high school wasn't in his best dreams.

NTGson is a 2016 HS grad, LHP, 34-1/2" sleeve length, long and skinny fingers, 6'0 - 160#. PG has his top velocity at 83 as a soph when he didn't have confidence in his curveball and threw 95% FBs; never went over 81 at subsequent WWBAs or all the other PG events since. At every PG event as Jr and Sr, he played OF when not on the mound where he relied on the CB and CU and lots of movement on FB. He was recruited and signed as a LHP with one of his D1 dream schools who saw him throw at least 10-12  games against highest level competition and HS games. Their gun recorded 82-84 FB consistently, running up to 87 only occasionally. Will he get bigger? Probably in weight and possibly 1 more inch in height. Will he get faster? Maybe. But he was recruited because "...he competes, is stoic on the bump, and embraces the challenge each pitch offers".  Lefties are held to different velocity standards. If NTGson were a righty, he'd have to play MIF or CF and run a 6.4 instead of a 6.8 to have any shot at the D1 he'll be attending, definitely not as a recruited pitcher.

I dont know ask Jamie Moyer and R.A Dickey.... IF  IF IF IF you can get outs and win games with low velo... you will pitch.

There are guidelines but no hard fast rules.  Bacdorslider will know who I am referring to but Vandy has a lefty that TOPS with breeze at his back at 82.  All the intangibles and can hit his spots and has so far been effective. 

Son is RHP sub six foot.  Tops at 86 or so. Gets away with it with a lot of sink and a very high spin rate (top 20 in Jupiter I believe).  He played on a high level team in summer facing a lot of high level D1 guys. To me that was key to him get an opportunity at a top program. 

Now do I think at 86 he is going to be starting any games over the 90 plus guys. Seems unlikely but he closed for one of the top travel teams in the country so I know he feels strongly he can be effective in a role at the next level

Interesting that this thread started in 2004.  Then reading some of the comments kind of surprised me.  While there is always a chance that a slower velocity pitcher can be successful at most any level, some of the old comments regarding the number of pitchers throwing mid 80s sure isn't true these days.

Of the 2016 grad pitchers we recorded in 2015, exactly 2,167 had peak velocity of 85 or better.

Here is a chart that includes all pitchers 85 and higher in 2016 grad year, these are all recorded from last year (2015).  For sure there are many more that we did not record,  these are just from PG showcases and tournaments.

98 mph - 1

97 mph - 1

96 mph - 4

95 mph - 11

94 mph - 24

93 mph - 33

92 mph - 70

91 mph - 91

90 mph - 145

89 mph - 178

88 mph - 279

87 mph - 354

86 mph - 449

85 mph - 528

PGStaff posted:

Interesting that this thread started in 2004.  Then reading some of the comments kind of surprised me.  While there is always a chance that a slower velocity pitcher can be successful at most any level, some of the old comments regarding the number of pitchers throwing mid 80s sure isn't true these days.

Of the 2016 grad pitchers we recorded in 2015, exactly 2,167 had peak velocity of 85 or better.

Here is a chart that includes all pitchers 85 and higher in 2016 grad year, these are all recorded from last year (2015).  For sure there are many more that we did not record,  these are just from PG showcases and tournaments.

98 mph - 1

97 mph - 1

96 mph - 4

95 mph - 11

94 mph - 24

93 mph - 33

92 mph - 70

91 mph - 91

90 mph - 145

89 mph - 178

88 mph - 279

87 mph - 354

86 mph - 449

85 mph - 528

cabbagedad posted:

Dannyball17 posted:

I see guys in AAA working at 80-82 all the time. But some HIGH SCHOOL coaches here in Texas would send them packing. They want football players on the baseball team. You can't get into a D1 in Texas unless you fit the mold I think.. my son too is a slow throwing lefty .. he was 5-1 and 100 lbs his freshman year.. now 6-0 140 as a Jr. he hasn't filled out yet but he's throwing 75-77 .. last year he pitched 2 innings against a nationally ranked top 25 team and shut them and their 3 D1 players out. 

In a JV start he went the distance giving up 1 hit on 59 pitches total (and in a 6A program)  ..but nothing... I cant believe how stressed we are that no one has shown interest when there are now kids just entering their freshman year with college offers.. I think we parents of filthy left handers need to start a support group  

Sorry, Danny but I see this all the time.  As a HS coach, when we go up against a highly ranked bigger school in a tourney, I will often throw the slowest throwing junker we have at them.  At the HS level, generally, the better hitters are geared to hit well against better throwers.  So, with their timing, they tend to do well against the P's that are in the 78 - 86 window.  Throw out something a few ticks above or below and you have a good shot.  Throw out low 70's and watch them flail.  

College hitters are much better at being able to sit, particularly when a guy doesn't have something quicker to mix in.  So that effective HS junker has taken his stuff as far as it's gonna go.  

But if your kid is 6' and hasn't filled out yet, he still has the potential to work toward a number that can translate.  Just don't expect it to be D1 unless the jump is really significant.

   

Cabbagedad,

What you describe is what happens in college ball as well.  Its pretty frustrating to watch guys who can hit 90mph FB but struggle against the slower curve. FWIW pitchers in AAA have higher velo than 80-82 if he meant pro ball.

I dont get that Mid 80s lhp should go D1 easy 

So the kid and I where watching southern vs la tech on MLB network last yesterday.  Southern brings in this young pitcher.  He looks about 16.  Lefty.  Fastball mid 70s.   

I saw some of that game also Golfman.  Southern pitcher was a 6'5" righty and the fastest pitch I saw was 81.  I thought the gun must have been off.  But then the La Tech lefty was consistent 90-91.  First time thru order not much hitting by La Tech but second time around, they adjusted to 78-80 mph fastball and the route was on.  I thought about this thread when I was watching...

Dannyball17 posted:

I dont get that Mid 80s lhp should go D1 easy 

 

A lot of mid major D1 pitchers cruise mid 80s. I got my information from a pro scout. Don't confuse cruise velocity with max velocity. 

BTW dickey is not that much of a soft tosser. A couple years ago he hit 87-88 with his fastball and even his knuckle could top out at 78-80.

Im pretty sure dickey hit 90 when he was in the minors.

PGStaff posted:

Interesting that this thread started in 2004.  Then reading some of the comments kind of surprised me.  While there is always a chance that a slower velocity pitcher can be successful at most any level, some of the old comments regarding the number of pitchers throwing mid 80s sure isn't true these days.

Of the 2016 grad pitchers we recorded in 2015, exactly 2,167 had peak velocity of 85 or better.

Here is a chart that includes all pitchers 85 and higher in 2016 grad year, these are all recorded from last year (2015).  For sure there are many more that we did not record,  these are just from PG showcases and tournaments.

98 mph - 1

97 mph - 1

96 mph - 4

95 mph - 11

94 mph - 24

93 mph - 33

92 mph - 70

91 mph - 91

90 mph - 145

89 mph - 178

88 mph - 279

87 mph - 354

86 mph - 449

85 mph - 528

It is interesting to note however that the original conversation centers around 87 mph.  You lop off 977 of the 2167 if you actually use 87.  Unless there are problems in other areas 87 absolutely gets you recruited. Assuming you have command of three pitches and grades are solid you are most definitely going D1 at 87.   we all witness it with our own eyes!  Our organization certainly has had D1 guys at 87 as has our high school. We have one right now in fact. I grant you if you are a max effort 87 with poor control bad grades and are a one trick pony...  It should go without saying you also need to be a good pitcher!  Thanks for the numbers PG. I love when you share data!

I have always wondered whether coaches/scouts take a hard look at a pitchers complete game record (when available) captured through Trackman or generally rely on max speed supplemented with the range.  For some guy throwing 95, I guess I would assume he can cruise 90+, but maybe for some kid throwing 86 max, if he literally cruises at 85 but throws in a slow FB and winds up with a range of 82-85, do many folks dig deeper and start loking at percentages at a given MPH?  Say the second kid throws 50% at the 85 mph mark and the first kid throws 50% at the 90 mph mark, the max speed difference is still a big 9 mph, but the mean difference shrinks to 5 mph.  I'll assume MLB scouts want this information if they are planning on cutting a big check, but wondering whether a mid-major D1 coach is interested in that level of detail.

87 in high school can easily be 90 in college. They're looking at high school sophs and juniors. This is where physical build and projecting upside potential comes into play. My son was a position player. But from a build standpoint ...

Soph: 6' 160

Junior: 6'1 170

Soph in college: 6'2 195

Had he continued with pitching you would have to believe he would have added velocity from the mound in college. He did add velocity from the field.

I once had a very prominent Power 5 pitching coach tell me that when looking at a pitcher's velocity development and future projection, he pays less attention to the top velocity and instead focuses more on how much the low end of the velocity range has increased over time. 

Son came into college this fall topping at 85. Two months in with their training he touched 87 four times in his last live outing. For him biggest deal is his slider is up 5 mph in those two months as well. 

Training is night and day different and this is from a kid who put in lots of work before.  

We have two similar threads going, this and the bartolo colon thread  so wanted to share this thought here as well

The one thing we are all ignoring in this conversation is technology and how it will revolutionize pitcher recruitment both at the college and pro levels. Spin. Rate and direction. As this is measured precisely by things like tracman it is no longer a mystery why certain pitchers are 'sneaky' or 'crafty'. Movement is simply a factor of spin and velocity (setting aside environmental factors for the moment and of course scuffing or other cheating). So that guy who throws 87 with spin axis completely perpendicular to the path of the pitch and a spot on average spin rate... Batting practice. Nobody looking for that guy. But how about the guy who throws 84 and has an extremely low spin rate and the bottom falls out of his two seemer. And it gets a little tail or run due to a spin axis which is not perpendicular to the path of the pitch. That = great pitcher. The smart coaches and GM's will win championships recruiting this way. The old tobacco spitters will wave it off, grab their crotch and spit. "I know a pitcher when I see one" they will say. "I don't need no stupid physics guy to tell me who can pitch (spit), that guy ever play baseball? (insert condescending chuckle here followed by a spit). Just like the other thread on automated strike zone baseball people have to keep up or get out. Disclaimer I am an old guy - 54th birthday today in fact. But even us old guys need to realize time moves forward not backwards. Embrace technology don't swat it to the side.

Enjoying the Ride posted:

I once had a very prominent Power 5 pitching coach tell me that when looking at a pitcher's velocity development and future projection, he pays less attention to the top velocity and instead focuses more on how much the low end of the velocity range has increased over time. 

Interesting. Son's high school pitching coach made the same observation to him the other day -- a comment about how the low end of his range had changed. I think the kids (and parents, and PG profiles, etc., etc.) focus so much on the top end number . . .

Technology is another tool.  The reality is a scout doesn't need technology to see the movement.  It stands out like a sore thumb.  The scout may justify what he sees with the numbers but the gun is not needed to know someone is throwing gas or has nasty movement.  

Sit behind a MLB pitcher.  It's unbelievable how much movement they have.  

real green posted:

Technology is another tool.  The reality is a scout doesn't need technology to see the movement.  It stands out like a sore thumb.  The scout may justify what he sees with the numbers but the gun is not needed to know someone is throwing gas or has nasty movement.  

Sit behind a MLB pitcher.  It's unbelievable how much movement they have.  

Strongly disagree. And usually I agree with your posts so nothing personal!  What about that guy with low spin rate and the ball drops just about a half inch or three quarters of an inch, maybe a couple inches more than the batter expected. That's what ground balls are made of. Some call it a heavy ball. Sometimes you can see it and sometimes you can't. It's subtle. Strikeouts are a bit more dramatic so yes you tend to notice that without technology. But most of those guys are high spin rate guys. So the guy with an 87mph fastball who is blowing people away up top and you just can't believe it. That's spin rate. Ball staying up a couple inches more than hitter thought. Swinging under it. The dramatic movement you are talking about is a different subject really. Before spin rates a whole section of successful pitchers was inexplicable and described with nonsense words like crafty and sneaky and just knows how to get you out, deceptive etc.  turns out all along it was something very tangible after all. 

2019Dad posted:

Enjoying the Ride posted:

I once had a very prominent Power 5 pitching coach tell me that when looking at a pitcher's velocity development and future projection, he pays less attention to the top velocity and instead focuses more on how much the low end of the velocity range has increased over time. 

Interesting. Son's high school pitching coach made the same observation to him the other day -- a comment about how the low end of his range had changed. I think the kids (and parents, and PG profiles, etc., etc.) focus so much on the top end number . . .

Strangely, heard just the opposite from a Power 5 PC a couple of weeks ago when this topic came up. Someone else in the conversation expressed this idea and this coach said emphasis on where a pitcher tops out is valid because demonstrating that a kid can throw at a certain velocity instills confidence that he can be trained into that velocity in a relatively short amount of time (which I imagine is somewhat grounded in the high level of confidence that most coaches almost necessarily have in their own abilities).

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Enjoying the Ride posted:

I once had a very prominent Power 5 pitching coach tell me that when looking at a pitcher's velocity development and future projection, he pays less attention to the top velocity and instead focuses more on how much the low end of the velocity range has increased over time. 

Interesting. Son's high school pitching coach made the same observation to him the other day -- a comment about how the low end of his range had changed. I think the kids (and parents, and PG profiles, etc., etc.) focus so much on the top end number . . .

Strangely, heard just the opposite from a Power 5 PC a couple of weeks ago when this topic came up. Someone else in the conversation expressed this idea and this coach said emphasis on where a pitcher tops out is valid because demonstrating that a kid can throw at a certain velocity instills confidence that he can be trained into that velocity in a relatively short amount of time (which I imagine is somewhat grounded in the high level of confidence that most coaches almost necessarily have in their own abilities).

I'm taking the middle of the road on this one.  I have no real expertise, but if asked what I'd like to see, I'd say I wanted to see a full outing - or several outings - and work towards getting rid of outliers and focusing on the meat of the outing.  If I had to pick a single speed, I would go for max mph, but with the data that is available and will be more available in the future, I'd want to track true average mph and maybe averages as pitch counts progress (is the kid still averaging 88 once he gets past the 50 pitch count?).  I'm thinking the lowest mph reading is sort of like the max mph reading in that it is not terribly indicative of the next pitch - but start to give me some averages and I get real comfortable.  While I am interested in a kid's command, I am even more interested in whether command is maintained at the higher end of the mph or whether these readings are usually the result of the kid just rearing back and throwing towards the plate.  Max mph is a nice metric but it does need to be taken in context of an outing - the higher the max mph and the smaller the mph range the better.  Decreasing the range often requires focus on keeping the low end from dropping.

roothog66 posted:

2019Dad posted:

Enjoying the Ride posted:

I once had a very prominent Power 5 pitching coach tell me that when looking at a pitcher's velocity development and future projection, he pays less attention to the top velocity and instead focuses more on how much the low end of the velocity range has increased over time. 

Interesting. Son's high school pitching coach made the same observation to him the other day -- a comment about how the low end of his range had changed. I think the kids (and parents, and PG profiles, etc., etc.) focus so much on the top end number . . .

Strangely, heard just the opposite from a Power 5 PC a couple of weeks ago when this topic came up. Someone else in the conversation expressed this idea and this coach said emphasis on where a pitcher tops out is valid because demonstrating that a kid can throw at a certain velocity instills confidence that he can be trained into that velocity in a relatively short amount of time (which I imagine is somewhat grounded in the high level of confidence that most coaches almost necessarily have in their own abilities).

For sure, current top velocity will be of interest to both (all) coaches.  I think what the coach I spoke with was trying to say is that he thinks changes in the low end of a pitcher's velocity (particularly the rate of change in this number) is in his opinion a better predictor of where a pitcher will eventually end up velocity-wise (years down the road) than where a pitcher is currently topping out. 

FriarFred posted:

I saw some of that game also Golfman.  Southern pitcher was a 6'5" righty and the fastest pitch I saw was 81.  I thought the gun must have been off.  But then the La Tech lefty was consistent 90-91.  First time thru order not much hitting by La Tech but second time around, they adjusted to 78-80 mph fastball and the route was on.  I thought about this thread when I was watching...

Hey!  Were's Southern?  My son is 5'11" 150 (still growing) and can hit 83.  Sounds like a fit.

Quote from Andrew Miller on the importance of top velocity and high school recruiting:

"It's not even necessarily 'how hard was I throwing?," but 'what was my hardest pitch." That's all I cared about. That's probably what they cared about. The probably don't care if you threw 98 to the backstop if you threw 98. If you get written up for that, you're a first round prospect."

No room.  Lack of velocity is an easy disqualifier.

2020dad posted:

real green posted:

Technology is another tool.  The reality is a scout doesn't need technology to see the movement.  It stands out like a sore thumb.  The scout may justify what he sees with the numbers but the gun is not needed to know someone is throwing gas or has nasty movement.  

Sit behind a MLB pitcher.  It's unbelievable how much movement they have.  

 Before spin rates a whole section of successful pitchers was inexplicable and described with nonsense words like crafty and sneaky and just knows how to get you out, deceptive etc.  turns out all along it was something very tangible after all. 

Just because someone couldn't put a number on the why doesn't mean it wasn't recognized.  The only difference now is they can put a tangible number.  I don't think we give enough credit to scouts.  I am sure not all scouts have the same skill set but I would guess most/all can see MUCH more than me.  They watch 1000's of players and recognize much more than the the average Joe.  The game is as slow for them as it is for a professional player.  

Just like before radar guns.  No one needed a radar reading to know who threw gas.

I was watching a HS game.  A highly recruited pitcher was on the mound who could push mid 90's.  The guy I was sitting with had a cup of coffee in MLB.  What I saw and what he saw were two completely different things.  Once he started pointing out the subtleties of the pitches I was amazed at how much I was missing.  All I noticed was velocity.  He noticed angle, tail, location, command, and more.  It was really eye opening.