Batting average over .700!

I wish the boy well, but when I looked a bit into that team, I found what I usually find when I read stories like this one. On the team he’s on, here’s the top 7 BA’s for regulars.

.733
.600
.526
.526
.524
.435
.400

That’s all well and good, but this is a team with a team BA that’s .433 but hasn’t won a single league game, 0-4, and is 4-5 overall. The team in 1st at 4-0 has a team BA of .312, and the team in 3rd at 2-2 is batting .310. Without looking any further, I’m gonna guess there’s some scoring being done that is maybe a bit “hinky”.

What’s too bad is, I’m gonna guess he’s likely a much above average hitter on a team playing against average HS competition, and with good scoring and the reporting of all games, would still be batting .450-.500. But someone doesn’t think that’s very good, and is giving him a teeny weeny bit of assistance with a pencil.

But its all good. He’ll move on to the next level and what will be will be.

quote:

Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
I wish the boy well, but when I looked a bit into that team, I found what I usually find when I read stories like this one. On the team he’s on, here’s the top 7 BA’s for regulars.

.733
.600
.526
.526
.524
.435
.400

.

Stats,
A lot of HS coaches tweak the numbers, but this guy takes the cake.
Good job smelling out a rat.

.

"But someone doesn’t think that’s very good, and is giving him a teeny weeny bit of assistance with a pencil."

I know that here in Hinkyville we get pretty excited when our scorekeeper's pencil arrives before each season...






.

Stats good oh digging!

High school stats mean about as much as the shoes Justin Bieber wears to his concerts.

quote:

Originally posted by J H:
High school stats mean about as much as the shoes Justin Bieber wears to his concerts.

Well, there’s certainly no doubt that the quality of the numbers for HS ball isn’t nearly up to the quality of the ML, MiL, or college in general, but its definitely much better than the levels below it, just like the quality of the coaches, the players, the umpires, and the general knowledge of the fans at the games. Bu be that as it may, it doesn’t meant there’s nothing to be learned from the numbers, anymore than it means the coaches at every level have nothing to offer, the players at every level have no abilities, the umpires at every level can’t call a good game, or the fans at every level can’t enjoy watching a ball game.

The trick isn’t to believe everything about any level below the ML is no good for anything, the trick is to take into account that there are deficiencies and to judge things accordingly.

Stats- I understand. However, high school stats provide zero basis for a judgment of player's abilities. There are too many variables that are involved within high school baseball that make it a moot point. Namely, the level of competition. I've had literally hundreds of friends that have been through the recruiting process and several dozen that have been through the professional scouting process and not a single coach or scout that I know of has ever even looked at a player's high school stats. Abilities are solely dictated upon evaluation. I've seen hitters that hit .600 and pitchers with ERAs below 1.00 in high school never play an inning at the next level. I've also seen hitters that hit under .300 and pitchers with ERAs over 4.50 get drafted. Whether those stats were true or not is irrelevant because they didn't matter. The player's talent was the basis for evaluation, not his statistical performance against the given competition.

quote:

Originally posted by J H:
Stats- I understand. However, high school stats provide zero basis for a judgment of player's abilities. There are too many variables that are involved within high school baseball that make it a moot point. Namely, the level of competition. I've had literally hundreds of friends that have been through the recruiting process and several dozen that have been through the professional scouting process and not a single coach or scout that I know of has ever even looked at a player's high school stats. Abilities are solely dictated upon evaluation. I've seen hitters that hit .600 and pitchers with ERAs below 1.00 in high school never play an inning at the next level. I've also seen hitters that hit under .300 and pitchers with ERAs over 4.50 get drafted. Whether those stats were true or not is irrelevant because they didn't matter. The player's talent was the basis for evaluation, not his statistical performance against the given competition.

Well J H, its ok if we disagree, not on how often scouts use HS stats, but whether or not HS provide “ZERO” basis for judgment of a player’s abilities. Its not whether or not the numbers are true because math never lies. 6 hits in 10 ABs is a .600 BA and no one can deny that. The problem is in whether or not the 6 hits were #1 really hits, and #2 came against a good team or a lousy one. There is a way to still use the numbers, but scouts aren’t gonna take the time to do it, even if they understood how, and the reason is, there’s no central gathering place, and no validation process.

What I find hilarious is, the assumption that anyone has the ability to project talent to much of a degree, and if you look closely enough, you’ll find that most players the scouts get all excited about, have pretty darn good numbers no matter who their competition is, because that’s what puts them on the radar. With pitchers it’s a bit different because there’s the almighty talent determiner, the gun to help them out.

Disagree Stats....I personally know two guys at our high school alone who were offered multiple scholarships before they played an inning of Varsity ball...my son makes three at our school alone.

Scouts in this area look at summer ball and what they can see with their own eyes. We have two guys hitting .500, higher then my son who would never hit a D1 fast ball but feast on 81 mph batting practice thrown by the second and third pitchers that my son never see's as he's been out of the game of two innings! Stats don't make them better hitters and the college coaches know that. This by the way is one of the best leagues in the state of California.

quote:

Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:

What I find hilarious is, the assumption that anyone has the ability to project talent to much of a degree, and if you look closely enough, you’ll find that most players the scouts get all excited about, have pretty darn good numbers no matter who their competition is, because that’s what puts them on the radar.

I couldn't possibly disagree more. Players get on the radar of scouts and coaches because of their abilities that are evaluated by these professionals who've spent years doing exactly that. There is not a single high school stat that is relevant to a recruiter. It doesn't matter how good a player's numbers are, a scout or coach will determine that player's talent with their own eyes and their own evaluation. If I was ever to become a college coach or a professional scout, high school stats (and some college stats, actually) would be irrelevant to me.

quote:

Originally posted by J H:
I couldn't possibly disagree more. Players get on the radar of scouts and coaches because of their abilities that are evaluated by these professionals who've spent years doing exactly that. There is not a single high school stat that is relevant to a recruiter. It doesn't matter how good a player's numbers are, a scout or coach will determine that player's talent with their own eyes and their own evaluation. If I was ever to become a college coach or a professional scout, high school stats (and some college stats, actually) would be irrelevant to me.

Well, you may disagree all you like, but when you find even one kid the scouts NEVER looked or even peeked at his numbers, you let me know because that’ll the 1st one I’ve ever heard of. Why would a scout’s attention be drawn to a HS player? Because he performs better than those around him of course. That’s because performance is the tell-tale sign of talent.

Stats I'll be honest and say I'm not even sure what the point is you're arguing.

Stats didn't like the word 'never', which should (almost) never be used.

quote:

Originally posted by coach2709:
Stats I'll be honest and say I'm not even sure what the point is you're arguing.

The concept that scouts never bother to look at a player’s numbers is ludicrous. I’ll agree that they don’t study them like they do in the ML when they’re trying to figure out how much they should pay a player already in the ML, or when they’re looking for a player to fill a specific need, but to say they don’t care or don’t pay attention to the numbers in the slightest is just absurd.

quote:

Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:

quote:

Originally posted by coach2709:
Stats I'll be honest and say I'm not even sure what the point is you're arguing.

The concept that scouts never bother to look at a player’s numbers is ludicrous. I’ll agree that they don’t study them like they do in the ML when they’re trying to figure out how much they should pay a player already in the ML, or when they’re looking for a player to fill a specific need, but to say they don’t care or don’t pay attention to the numbers in the slightest is just absurd.

Ok I understand now. Prove what you're saying because I don't think they do look at numbers in determining talent. Do they see numbers that players put up? Yes because they are everywhere but to put value in them I would say very little at most.

quote:

Originally posted by SultanofSwat:
Stats didn't like the word 'never', which should (almost) never be used.

That's never a good thing.......I think

High school stats are like a brochure. It may draw the college coach or pro scouts attention. But it isn't going to sell the player. When they see big numbers on a player they are not familar they're going to want to check the ability and potential behind the numbers.

College and pro prospects will typically have big high school stats. They're the better players. But having big stats doesn't guarantee being a college or pro prospect.

quote:

Originally posted by coach2709:
Ok I understand now. Prove what you're saying because I don't think they do look at numbers in determining talent. Do they see numbers that players put up? Yes because they are everywhere but to put value in them I would say very little at most.

I never once said or implied that they looked at the numbers to determine talent! I said they looked at the numbers to determine who was on the radar. Think about it. Why would a scout go to Backwater High to see Jeb play? Would he go there because he heard the kid had talent? And how do you suppose the person telling him that would make that determination?

You guys act as though I’m saying all scouts do is look at the numbers, run them through some magical algorithm, then offer a contract or not based on what comes out. Well that’s dog rockets, and something I’ve never ever tried to say.

Before my son was drafted out of HS the teams most interested in him asked me to forward his high school stats. I was surprised by this because they had seen him pitch on multiple occasions. When I asked if they really used high school stats one scout said that when it comes down to drafting a player and they have two guys they like the same...sometimes the stats can be used as part of a tie breaker. Remember on draft day scouts are fighting for "their guy" so any bit of information available can come into play. He also said while the scouts use the "eye test" front office personnel also like to see the numbers.

While I agree scouts don't look at stats to determine whether or not they should draft/recruit someone...I do think that stats are at least looked as part of the equation.

By the way the kid in the article that the OP shared is someone my youngest son played travel ball with. It was a couple years ago however even at that age he was an absolute stud. I don't know if the .700 is legit or not however in a prestigious HS All Star tournament hosted by the Phillies (Carpenter Cup) he batted .500 as a junior and that was against the best pitching in the tri-state area.

gnats----I tink you are so far off base you are wading in the PACIFIC

quote:

Why would a scout go to Backwater High to see Jeb play? Would he go there because he heard the kid had talent? And how do you suppose the person telling him that would make that determination?

When Backwater High played Timbuktu High in the Swamp League there was an umpire who is also an associate scout. Even without knowing the numbers the umpire/scout sees Jeb drive the ball with a quality swing when he faces Nuke LaLoosh. Nuke is known from playing for the Timbuktu Toolies at a Perfect Game event.

.

Thanks RJM for the report on the LaLoosh kid...I was wondering where he ended up.

There's truth to your tagline: * Believing is seeing *



.

jerseydad,

What you’re doing is saying that not all organizations act exactly the same way for the same reasons, and that makes sense.

Also, it also makes sense that the stats are part of the equation, just like so many other factors are taken into consideration.

As for that kid in the article, I have no doubt at all that he’s a “player”. But to tell the truth, a .500 average in one tournament, no matter who the competition is, is a heck of a lot different than .733 for an entire season. Actually, the only thing that didn’t pass the smell test to me, was when they had all those other kids with such bodacious numbers too, but with a record that shows they have trouble beating anyone.

Usually, when I see that happening, the scorer is making some kind of fatal error for everyone. The scoring error I see most often like that, is counting FC’s as hits. But, it could be that I’m totally wrong, and they really do have all those players who knock the snot out of the ball, and if that’s true, I apologize profusely. But no matter what, I’ll just bet his numbers were the main reason he was playing in that tournament last year.

The coach at my son's high school had a girl keeping the book. After the game I was handed the book to update stats. I managed the team website. As I looked over the page I wondered what game she was watching. She scored throwing errors by infielders as doubles. Fielders choice were singles. There were times she must not have been watching then made it up. My son walked and stoled second. The book said he had a double. I spent the entire evening reconstructing the game with a dad who had it on video. After one more game and evening of this I kept the book.

I do not know how real the numbers are but in support of jerseydad, I can tell you that he can play and FWIW has always been a top player in the region against any competition. I would like to coach a team he couldn't make based on skill alone...that would be a very good team.

NP13 or jerseydad, what summer team does/did he play for?

quote:

Originally posted by NP13:
I do not know how real the numbers are but in support of jerseydad, I can tell you that he can play and FWIW has always been a top player in the region against any competition. I would like to coach a team he couldn't make based on skill alone...that would be a very good team.

There’s never been any question about the kid’s abilities. The only question has been the validity of the numbers. When you have 5 starters batting over .500, 2 over .600, and 1 over .700, with a pitching staff that has a team ERA of 4.10 but are only 4-8 overall and 0-5 in league, there’s something wrong somewhere.

I’m gonna make and educated guess and say he’s very likely a real high .400 to low .500 kid at best. What people don’t seem to understand, is just how freaking good that is. But there often seems to be some kind of oneupsmanship that has to go on when stats are talked about. Here’s a perfect example.

Yesterday, our #1 threw a perfect game with 14 Ks, only using 77 pitches, and going to 0-2 on 12 of the 18 batters he threw a 1st pitch strike to. I got an e-mail this morning from a fellow down in SoCal who heard about it, and he tells me he had a kid throw a no-no who had 19 Ks, and the only player that got on reached on CI. Well if that story is true or not, I don’t know and frankly don’t care, but it illustrates how this stuff has the creeping numbers syndrome.

fillsfan - He was with the SJ Young Guns. Not sure if he ever moved on to a more "high profile showcase team". I did not see him last year, but prior to that I saw him a lot. Unless I am mistaken...his mother use to ring a cow bell and chant Jose.... Jose! Jose! Jose! I wasn't a big fan, but the talent was obvious.

Stats4Gnats - I agree number are probably not accurate, but with some of the scorekeepers I have seen in high school, sometimes I think it is as much ignorance as it is intentional.

quote:

Originally posted by NP13:
…Stats4Gnats - I agree number are probably not accurate, but with some of the scorekeepers I have seen in high school, sometimes I think it is as much ignorance as it is intentional.

I don’t think it was intentional at all! If it was, the numbers wouldn’t be stand out so much. If I was gonna “cheat”, I’d be a little less obvious than having all the players have such bodacious numbers.

And who’s gonna know anyhoo? I’ve caught a few cheaters because I have the book. I look at the game and see a player who struck out twice and popped out twice showing 2X3 in the box score and I know there’s something hinky goin’ on. Or if I see a pitcher who gave up 2 HRs to leadoff batters giving up no ER’s, there’s just no way to pass the smell test.

But I really believe you’re correct and that ignorance is much more the fault than outright cheating.