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Geez, that sounds familiar! I know I’ve seen that message on HSBBW before. Many times actually. Who is it that says that all the time only to get responses to the contrary? Oh yeah…..that would be me!!!!
Of course that’s true…. However 
the metrics outliers are gonna get a much, much longer leash than the average athletes. Throw 95+ and somebody somewhere, including in pro ball, is going to continue to think they can teach you to throw strikes. The kid that runs 6.3 60’s will at the very least get a ton of chances to prove they can hit, and will be used as a pinch runner and defensively.
The 7.1 runner who starts out the season 0 for 12? It’s “adios, Sam.”
The kid that throws 82 and gets shelled in Game 1 might not get a Game 2
Actually it means that you'll at least get a look from college and pro coaches - actually lots of looks. See Vince Velazquez among many others. Without those velo showcase numbers college coaches don't even consider you - so it means something, but your mind probably won't change anyway.
Dads love to get reassurances that their kid, the average athlete, will “get a chance.”
@2019&21 Dad posted:Actually it means that you'll at least get a look from college and pro coaches - actually lots of looks. See Vince Velazquez among many others. Without those velo showcase numbers college coaches don't even consider you - so it means something, but your mind probably won't change anyway.
It only means something if you can do it in game competition. If you can, it means a lot. If you can’t it literally means nothing. Lots of kids produce showcase numbers that they can’t replicate in a game. Good coaches know that and they don’t need to see numbers to know if a kid throws hard, runs fast, or hits the ball the ball hard. They see and hear that with their own eyes and ears. So, no I won’t be changing my mind. Way too many people are chasing numbers and drinking the PG Kool-Aid. It’s been that way for years. I have been thru this myself as a Dad with 2 of my sons. Now I attend showcase events to scout/recruit and network with coaches. The things I post are a combination of my own perspective along with that of other coaches and players that I know. I’m telling you (again) that showcase numbers are vastly over-rated by players and parents that are trying to be recruited. But you can believe whatever you want.
Eh, I think we're trying too hard here to simplify what is a VERY complex concept. When viewed through one particular lens, literally everyone here is right about this. It comes down to how you interpret the statement. What exactly does it mean when it says "in competition"? In high school competition? When someone is watching? Once you get to college ball? Over the course of a game? A tourney? A whole season? There are different "right" answers depending on the sample size you choose.
We've all read the stories where a coach recounts watching a recruit play in a game where he went 0-4 at the plate with 3 Ks or whatever, but then offers the kid after that game. That coach wasn't concerned about the 0-4 stat line so much as he was about the context around it and all the nuances of the player and that particular game.
I think we can all agree that the length of time you get to play the game (at the macro level) is ultimately determined by your production. Further, monstrous measurables delivered at showcases don't have the power to extend you playing the game for very long. They might net you some things at the micro level, but not much more than that.
Showcase talent will only get one so far. C pop time 1.85 is fast but is it on the bag to even get a chance at a tag on the runner? BP hitter looks good and can mash with moon shots but can they hit in a game? IMO...Games are where you need to evaluate a player! I want the C who pops 2.0 on the bag and I want the hitter who can produce in a game!
@adbono said "showcase numbers are vastly over-rated by players and parents that are trying to be recruited."
I'd hope literally everyone would agree with that statement. The fact of the matter is, the recruiting process is so intricate and wholly unique to each individual, that performing in competition (when it matters most) is the closest thing there is a to "magic bullet." Players and parents - less so for those who read HSBBW - feel lost and not in control of the recruiting process, so they're eager to grab ahold of anything TANGIBLE they can get their hands on. For most, showcase measurables feel tangible and safe until they unavoidably become wiser down the road when reality sets in. PG and friends keyed in on their naivety and ignorance and worked tirelessly to feed their desired narrative that measurables are a big deal.
I've shared this story with adbono in a PM before, but it's worth sharing with the group. On my 2021's visit to the JUCO he committed to, we were walked through their facilities. The HC points out a couple Rapsado or Trackman units (I don't remember exactly what they were and I don't care). He says (I'm paraphrasing) "we have them but we don't use them a whole lot. I don't need to hook your son up to a machine to know that his throws have carry or that he has a good spin rate. Real coaches have been identifying all that stuff with their eyes for years and years." And this coach isn't some 80 year old luddite. He's still in his 30s and is the winningest coach the program has ever had.
@DanJ posted:. He's still in his 30s…
So: a young man shouting at clouds? Cool!
Well said DanJ
Yes everyone says it….as recruiters chase velo numbers, size and speed numbers.
Here we go again:
https://community.hsbaseballwe...but-show-no-results?
@DanJ posted:For most, showcase measurables feel tangible and safe until they unavoidably become wiser down the road when reality sets in.
I speak for naive parents who didn't know anything, and I'd say the opposite. For many, what they know is that their son is the best player on his HS team, one of the best on his travel team, he really knows the game, always performs well, is a grinder, a gamer, etc. Reality sets in when that isn't enough.
One of the things I read on here, that made it all make sense to me, is that the higher the level, the faster the game is in every aspect. So it's not about how well you do against current competition, it's about how well it will translate to a higher level.
My son had a “stud” travel teammate eleven years ago who signed with a top ranked college program. The father had left no dollar unspent having the kid trained to the metrics. His college coach, one I’m sure everyone here respects said he would likely turn out to be one of his greatest recruits ever. The kid was a physical specimen and had awesome metrics. But, given the players that have come through this college program I was surprised by the hyperbole.
I coached the stud in travel for three years from 13u to 16u. I watched him for two years as a 17u teammate of my son. I didn’t get it. He had a weak temperament. He rattled easily when things went poorly. One of the stud’s high school teammates became good friends with my son. They were all on the same 17u team for two years. In confidence the high school teammate told me in high school games the stud did what I saw for five years in travel. He shredded mediocre pitching and was challenged by top pitching.
After losing a travel game by a run my son privately joked, “Gilligan, little buddy you’ve done it again.” My son referred to the stud as Gilligan and second base as an island. The stud stranded my son there twice that game. My son had been stranded on base with the stud at bat enough he also privately referred to him as LOB.
The stud got to his highly ranked college team. Three years in a row he was an opening day starter. All three years he lost his position by the start of conference play. You may have the physical attributes and all the metrics. But ultimately you have to show something on the field.
Totally agree but you can’t get there without the numbers
If an athlete can throw a football 100 yards does that make him a great quarterback prospect? Would anyone that knows anything automatically think so? Baseball is no different - change my mind.
Metrics and numbers are a defensible crutch that coaches can use, or trust their eyes or both. Depending on the context of the recruit and the situation, if I was a Coach I'd probably use both and get a second opinion from another coach. Recruiting is the life blood of business, sports, etc... Mistakes are made everyday but the best programs (like those in the CWS) make less recruiting mistakes than their counterparts.... JMO.
When ur "Big State U" you have a lot of players to choose from and most likely will miss less than the smaller school.
“My kid runs a 7.3 60 and throws 82 across the infield. He just went 4 for 6 in a really big Perfect Game podunk Tournament in Nowheresville, Fly Over Country against a couple of D1 commits. I’m going to go on the Internet and get some affirmation from like minded people that metrics aren’t that important.”
It’s possible to not have great metrics and still be a very good player. It’s also possible to have great metrics and not be a good player at all.
@adbono posted:It’s possible to not have great metrics and still be a very good player. It’s also possible to have great metrics and not be a good player at all.
But without the great metric you most likely will never get a chance to prove it. Listen agree with base concept the reality of the world is not that simple. The guys who make the rules can say whatever they want but the numbers don’t lie. They recruit metrics and that is just a fact.
@old_school posted:But without the great metric you most likely will never get a chance to prove it. Listen agree with base concept the reality of the world is not that simple. The guys who make the rules can say whatever they want but the numbers don’t lie. They recruit metrics and that is just a fact.
All schools don’t recruit primarily based on metrics and that’s a fact. The ones that do are often the schools that are the worst about over-recruiting. If you predominantly recruit off metrics (without watching enough live game action) you will end up with a lot of guys that don’t play as well as metrics suggest they will. So they bring in twice as many as they need in every recruiting class knowing that more than half won’t pan out.
Would you enjoy sitting with the Japan and American-scouts watching Matsui, Tanaka, Darvish and Ichiro?
40,000 fans at Koshien in Osaka. 40 million on TV watching.
no metrics, only the scouts eyes and background. The cheering, the drums, the chants and the drama provide a perfect scene for the scouts. To superimpose the player in a World Series.
Bob
Excellent point Bob. Thanks!
It’s ridiculous to think that there aren’t certain thresholds that players have to meet, at minimum, to play various levels of college Baseball.
Parents aren’t coming on here to get info on how their kid can be the next Ichiro or Matsui. And if they are getting recruited by SEC teams, they don’t really need to come here for advice, either.
Its extremely common for parents of kids who don’t quite meet that minimum of athleticism of a certain level of college sports to want assurances that their kid, indeed, is one of the magical snowflake exceptions to the rule.
A big huge dose of realism is more valuable than just about anything other than a high GPA, in the post Covid recruiting landscape.
I understand your premise but I also disagree. Sons were recruited by SEC/ACC/Big12 and this place was great for us. The great part of this site is there are parents/players from all levels. Remember, the players that some of you think of as studs have just as many questions as those that are being recruited for lower levels. I wondered where my youngest son would fit because he did not have the metrics, IMO, to play SEC ball. Very rarely hits 90 on the gun and lives off the location and extra pitches. Does that translate to success in SEC? Will he be eaten alive by SEC hitters? There are so many 95 plus guys will he be given a chance and on and on. This place provided answers and I trusted proven success in travel ball. Son had a great, true first year, and helped his team get to Omaha. But the metrics were not the answer. I see so many of his teammates that have the metrics but did not get many innings on the mound even though they throw 95 because they cannot effectively get it over the plate. Their teams philosophy is THROW STRIKES. Metrics won't get it over the plate but it will get you a seat at the table. Son got innings because he did not walk guys. 3 walks and 2 being intentional in 41 innings. That is not really metrics.
I also want to remind parents of the P5 schools to keep posting because others are like me and have just as many questions as the parents of other players.
@adbono posted:All schools don’t recruit primarily based on metrics and that’s a fact. The ones that do are often the schools that are the worst about over-recruiting. If you predominantly recruit off metrics (without watching enough live game action) you will end up with a lot of guys that don’t play as well as metrics suggest they will. So they bring in twice as many as they need in every recruiting class knowing that more than half won’t pan out.
I was about to post this. A very successful SEC coach said he will always take the metrics over a kid without them. He doesn’t have time for projects. He knows most of the kids he recruits will never see the field for him. And if he misses on kids he will bring in transfers to fill the gaps.
@TerribleBPthrower posted:I was about to post this. A very successful SEC coach said he will always take the metrics over a kid without them. He doesn’t have time for projects. He knows most of the kids he recruits will never see the field for him. And if he misses on kids he will bring in transfers to fill the gaps.
Right. They don’t have time for projects is code for “I don’t want to have to teach my players. I want them ready to go so all I have to do is manage a roster.” IMO in college baseball the scales are so tilted in favor of the schools vs the athletes that they can get away with this - so they do. As long as 25 kids are willing to show up in each fall recruiting class why would they stop? But it makes for long odds to ever see the field when it’s a proven fact that less than 50% of every D1 recruiting class gets sent packing. It gets back to the difference between “do they want you” or “are they willing to take you” and that’s where the disconnect occurs. Most HS kids (and parents) get wooed in the recruiting process into thinking they are wanted - but in reality the majority aren’t in that category. That’s why it’s so important to find the right fit socially, academically, etc., and given the current climate all levels (D2, D3, NAIA, JuCo) should be considered. If you get the right fit it’s not a disaster if baseball doesn’t work out - and it often doesn’t.
@PitchingFan posted:I see so many of his teammates that have the metrics but did not get many innings on the mound even though they throw 95 because they cannot effectively get it over the plate. . .. Metrics won't get it over the plate but it will get you a seat at the table.
Yes, but (a) you need to add that your son's top FB as a LHP was 88 on PG, and (b) this is exactly what those of us on the "other side" are saying: understand where you fit (with metrics as part of that), and understand that even if you think you fit, it may not work out.
@PitchingFan posted:I also want to remind parents of the P5 schools to keep posting because others are like me and have just as many questions as the parents of other players.
Exactly why this site is great, because so many perspectives.
I know of a kid who has size, 6-2 and 220, and passes the eye test (as he looks like a stud) and I would imagine that he has the metrics because he runs really well in the OF and probably has a great exit velo and can throw.
He was a freshman this year and got red-shirted.
I asked someone close to the team if it was a numbers thing because of all the other players getting an extra year of eligibility now and they said: No, it's because he did nothing in the fall games when he arrived on campus. He literally didn't hit the ball hard once in games or scrimmages.
So, this is one example of how competition overrides metrics - although metrics is probably what got him there, or helped.
Francis, are you in the photo? who was sitting to right?
During the 17 years of the Area Code games, I attended and set up every tryout for 20,000 players.
During the 10 hours at each field from West Coast to the East Coast, I visited with the pro scouts and College Coaches and ask questions. "What are your eyes telling you"?
Answer: Can the young man compete? Can he help our team win? Can he improve his skills and mental attitude?
Non-verbal communication and body language cannot be measured but can be observed and evaluated.
Bob
I put the over/under when this topic will be rehashed at 9 months. Franny is a solid -$480 of bring this up in September 2023.
I almost don’t understand the disagreement here, you need the metrics to get there but need to produce upon arrival.
much like you need a degree to land xyz job but still need to produce when you get there…what am I missing? Are there a few unicorns? Sure but generally speaking this is pretty straight forward.
(——-l—————————-)
To the left are those without the desirable metrics who receive the opportunity. To the right are those with the desirable metrics who receive the opportunity.
(-l————)
To the left are those without the desirable metrics who succeed. To the right are those with the desirable metrics who succeed.
Metrics or not it’s a numbers and survival game. Metrics alone won’t get it done. Having the metrics will allow the opportunity to prove you can’t get the job done. Not having the metrics means the player must prove quickly he can get it done.
But missing in all this is mental toughness. My son told me when he arrived on campus he was surprised some freshman were overwhelmed by the numbers and quickly started doubting their chances. They didn’t stay mentally prepared for their opportunities. They didn’t believe. They had one foot out the door after a month.
I had a friend/teammate who had sub seven sixty speed, great hands and quickness. He was a 5’7” singles hitter. He started four years at a Florida mid major. He was so mentally tough and had a chip on his shoulder he was a bit of a prick if you didn’t know him well. Before he was a teammate I disliked him so much I used to knock him down when I pitched (yes, we head hunted in the 70’s).
By the time I was done playing with him in Legion and college summer ball I described him the following way …
He would bite the nails out of walls and spit them back at you if it’s what it took to win.
I agree with @@RJM but I would add this: (——/————-). Assume this represents all HS players that post showcase measurables that impress. The right side indicates the number of players that can use their metrics to be productive players in a game. The left side indicates the ones that can’t. It’s my contention that lots of parents and players don’t believe the left side of that bar even exists. I will give you a real life example. The senior SS at our local HS was getting some buzz on PBR & 5Tool because of his showcase metrics and his stats. I ran into the RC from a good D2 program at one of the games who told me he was there to see the SS play. He asked me if I liked the kid (meaning would I recommend him?). I suggested that we talk after the game. When the game was over the RC said to me, “it looks like he struggles against good pitching. He is okay in the field but not a college level defender. And I don’t like his body language.” My response was “bingo.” The kid was given a lot of post season awards but has no deal to play in college.
RJM:
your teammate reminds me of my teammate in the South Dakota Basin League - Dick Howser!! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Howser.
It takes a special pro scout and College Coach to recognize this talent. This is why a College Coach should interview the player's teammates and opponents.
Bob
@2022NYC posted:I put the over/under when this topic will be rehashed at 9 months. Franny is a solid -$480 of bring this up in September 2023.
Gimme the under
I think it is simply both. At some point you just need to perform, but if you have a 2 Era with a 78 mph fastball you still are not a prospect no matter how good your production is.
On the other hand if you have huge power but you can't square up the ball it won't help you much either.
I would say that, with all due respect to everyone, it is more obvious than the fact that water is wet, to 99% of the parents that post here, that a Baseball player will need to actually be able to play Baseball at a competent level to stay and play in college.
Its similar to going on “High School Basketball Web dot com” and saying “well, you know, if your kid shoots 22% from the free throw line in college he’s probably not going last in college ball.”
C’mon now.