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Interesting analysis of Lincecum's use of the change
up.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/


Edit:
Sorry for the busted link. Here's the blog entry from Erik Manning at www.fangraphs.com

Last night Tim Lincecum was the youngest pitcher to start an all-star game since Dwight Gooden. Lincecum is having a great year, striking out over 10.5 batter per nine, with, having cut his walk rate for the third year in a row, a K/BB over four. He is best known for his electric fastball, but interestingly this year he is throwing it a bit less (59% of the time versus 66% of the time in 2008 and 2007) and the average speed has dropped from 94 mph to 92.5 mph. It looks like Lincecum is learning to take a little off the fastball and mix in his curve and changeup more often.

His curveball is quite good, worth about one run per 100 pitches over the past three years. It is has lots vertical movement-12 to 6 break-and induces nearly a 30% whiff rate. He throws it about equally to lefties and righties, about 16% of the time.

His changeup is a great pitch. He throws it more to lefties (24% of the time), but still throws it to righties fairly often (16%) a testament to how good it is. The pitch has been worth 5.28 runs per 100 pitches this year, which is just incredible. Of pitchers who have thrown more than a handful of changes the next closest is Josh Johnson’s worth 3.8 runs per 100. Among starting pitcher’s changeups it is second to only Rich Harden’s in whiff rate. It is a huge reason for his success.

Of course you cannot evaluate his changeup in a vacuum, since its success is predicated on his fastball. Here is the average run value, change in run expectancy, of changeup based on the number of fastballs that preceded it in an at-bat. The numbers are averaged over his career not just 2009.

+-------------------+----------------+
| Num. Preceding FB | Run Val of CH |
+-------------------+----------------+
| 0 | -0.014 |
| 1 | -0.026 |
| 2 | -0.028 |
| 3 | -0.023 |
| 4+ | -0.010 |
+-------------------+----------------+


After the first fastball the success almost doubles, where it stays until, as the at-bat lengthens, it falls back off. The two pitches average about 9 mph difference in speed. Here is the change in run value for his changeup based on its difference in speed from the previous fastball. The gray lines are error bars.



As you can see the success of Lincecum’s changeup is very much influenced by his fastball. When he is throwing it 8 to 10 mph slower than his fastball (as he does on average) he is successful. When it gets too slow or too fast, he is not as successful.

Changeups have no platoon split and as with other pitchers who succeed on the strength of a great changeup Lincecum shows almost no platoon split. It will be fun to continue to watch the career of this great young pitcher getting it done with a superlative changeup-fastball combo.



It’s rare to see a changeup so good in a pitcher so young, but that’s just one more way Lincecum breaks the mold. And it’s perhaps not so surprising on reflection: so many phenoms come up quickly by throwing heat past unprepared hitters their own age… until the reach the professional ranks and meet guys who can hit the fastest pitch they can throw. Then they have to start learning the subtler arts of pitching. Lincecum was never big enough to be one of those all-smoke guys, and while his 92 mph heater is certainly respectable, he clearly learned the value of those other pitches early and well.
"There are two kinds of people in this game: those who are humble and those who are about to be." Clint Hurdle
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Interesting!

I still believe the change-up is the best pitch in baseball, and yet- the hardest to throw effectively. A good change-up is the one that appears wicked fast for half the distance and then seems to just float in the rest of the way in what appears to be some other time dimension- its what fools hitters.

A good change-up looks like a magic trick.
I asked the players on my team what pitch they fear most and they tell me its the change-up. They aren't afraid of a wicked fast or live fastball, they always feel that they can get around to hit it and can see it coming out of the pitchers hand- no deception involved- you get what you see- no magic.

The change-up on the other hand is dreaded by good hitters because of its extremely high deceptive value. You don't hear of good hitters waiting for the change-up to hit, no, they like the fastball to hit- always have and always will. The best pitch in my sons arsenal is his change-up. It gets hit less, creates more swinging strikes, and when it is rarely hit, it doesn't go anywhere far- almost alway a ground ball weakly hit to an infielder.

I have always felt that the best pitch a pitcher throws is the one the batter dreads. And for most players, it is the change-up or curveball- something other than the fastball.

Change-up/offspeed pitch is always best because of the deception value. It has been proven that any good batter can hit any good fastball located around the strike zone. Fastballs have no deception- you can see it coming and just swing and hit. Change-ups when thrown properly not only has the fastball appearance but has the compounded ability to have more late movement and timing issue for a batter to deal with.

How bad do hitters get fooled by it? Take this test for example- Try and throw for a first pitch a fastball or a change-up to a good hitter. Chances are you can float in a change-up right down the middle without good contact or any contact while almost always the fastball right down the middle for a first pitch will get creamed.

I don't know exactly what goes through a batters head when they are up to bat and swing foolishly at the change-up for a first pitch strike but it is so effective they can't fix it either. We did this approach with the best travel team in our area years ago. We pitched change-ups for the first pitch to batters on that team 75% of the time and every time they would swing out of their shoes and come up with nothing- they flat out could not tell it was coming slower and adjust to it. The coach was getting very ****ed off also- kept telling them not to swing on the first pitch, and so when they didn't swing they still got a strike.

A good change-up will make a fastball look better anyday than a good fastball making a change-up look better.
I think the major point made in the blog is that a change up is only as good as the fastball that sets it up. One without the other is not likely to strike fear in any good hitter.
I was trying to find out what defines a plus change-up. I've heard it said that a 10 mph differential is ideal, but any more can lead to decreased success. Movement is also key. It seems most crucial to know when to throw it, and when it's most likely to be effective. That is discussed in the piece and backed up with data. It would be really interesting to compare other pitchers who use the change up effectively (eg Santana or Hoffman) and see if the data is consistent.
quote:
How many 90MPH fastballs have your players faced this year?

How many scouts do you see at HS games looking at the guy with a 83 MPH fastball and a killer change up?



It works all in relativism. A good change-up has the same exact effect in high school or the majors.

There are plenty of pitchers in professional ball most of which can throw 90+mph (if not all minus just a few). Of those who is effective? The guys who have great offspeed pitches. A pitcher with 91 mph velocity coupled with a great change-up will advance to the majors way quicker and is more projectable than a pitcher who throws 96mph with a weak change-up. Whos more deadly- pitcher with an average fastball with above average change-up or a a pitcher with above average fastball but weak change-up?
Hey SP thanks for the link. They have all kinds of great stuff on this site. A great resource.

GBM:

Take a look at this.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leade...y&type=4&season=2009

Now go down through and look at pitchers who have a plus FB with a CU that is used less than 6% of the time. I will help you out a little on some of them.

Edwin Jackson
Clayton Kershaw
Zack Greinke
Roy Oswalt
Matt Garza
Roy Holladay
Chris Carpenter
Joba Chamberlin

That should answer your question. Now go to the bottom of the list and look for someone with a below average FB using a CU a lot....there are a couple Moyer and Buehrle but that is it.

Everyone talks about Cole Hamels CU but guess what he throws a 90MPH FB 60% of the time. I did not realize he threw such a hard FB until looking at this site. Interesting stuff.
There aren't a lot of guys that have a plus plus change-up in the majors. For that matter, there aren't many at the pre MLB that have a plus plus change-up. Down to the college and HS levels there are even fewer and fewer. At the pre HS level you may see 3-4 pitchers all year long that have a great change-up.

I was saying earlier that we once played the best travel team around and that we would start them out with a first pitch CU and it would get in their heads so bad that you could throw anything after that pretty much - mostly fastballs and then come back occasionally with the CU deep in a count and get them to strike out.

I will agree with you that a live plus fastball in the 90's is something special- a rare talent in and of itself! But, it is my opinion that if a pitcher also has a plus CU to go along with his hard live fastball that batters fear the CU the most in their at bat. This is why I believe most batters wait and watch for the fastball. They analyze when a pitcher is most likely to throw their fastball and then step into the box with a predetermined idea of when the pitcher is going fastball and then swing.

The art of the pitch is its - what I call "magical deception". Here is why I prefer the CU as the best pitch in baseball-

The eye is trained to pick up the initial velocity of the torso, arm and hand motion. At this very early stage the mind predetermines the exact future moment that the pitch will enter the zone ready to hit. A great CU will be thrown on the same exact plane at release as the fastball. The mind seeing the velocity of the arm as the same as the fastball will automatically trigger a subconscious timer based on the speed of the arm initially and then later it recalculates. If a CU is thus thrown on the same plane as the fastball, the odds are that the mind will automatically trigger fastball swing and thus why hitters will look so foolish when after they start their fastball swing they readjust and try to slow the bat down.

Timing a great CU out of the hand is thus impossible for the mind to calculate as every visual trigger says "fastball, fastball, fastball". It is that fear that screws up a good hitter. Good hitters are conditioned generally to hit fastballs because it is the easiest pitch to calculate actual velocity out of the pitchers hand at release. We did a test with batters who would swing hard on the change-up. Instead of switching off and on with the fastaball we would just have the pitcher throw a harder CU the very next pitch- and sure enough the batter would swing even harder the next pitch convinced that it was the fastball. We could strike out batters with this method on three straight change-ups with each consecutive CU thrown slightly harder than the last. It told us as coaches that the batters mind must always think fastball out of the hand and then readjust after some time from that moment. The mind doesn't like to think oppositly because that is where he gets burned- if he thinks CU and it is the fastball he never gets the bat around.

The magic trick of the CU when thrown perfectly is that by the time a batter realizes it isn't the fastball it is almost always too late to readjust and make good contact. If they do recalculate it is more of a defensive type of swing that leads into lots of pop-ups or grounders.
One of the problems that exists is that in my opinion not very many pitchers at the pro level know how to effectively throw a CU. I went to a MiLB game last weekend and of the 6 pitchers I saw, only one had a good enough CU that I honestly couldn't tell what he was throwing until the ball was over halfway to the plate. The other pitchers would change their delivery just enough that you could tell right at the moment of release if it was the CU or not.
I enjoy learning from this board.

Earlier this year I read a major league hitter saying that the reason Johan Santana was so tough was that his changeup was completely indistinguishable from his fastball.

In terms of pitch sequencing, I was recently reading up on Orel Hersheiser. I was surprised to learn that he had become a professional poker player with a fairly high level skill. Interesting.

Then, when reading one of the old articles from the SI vault written during his prime, one of his coaches said that Hersheiser was one of the biggest gamblers on the mound that you would ever find. He meant that Hersheiser would throw pitches at spots in the count where almost no one else would throw that pitch. Interesting.

Re: the prior post. I think in any sport, if you can instill in an athlete the fear of looking foolish, it freezes him and reduces his performance significantly. Hitters don't fear missing a fastball, or not getting it solidly. Thats just part of the game to them. Missing a slower pitch or hitting a chopper or pop-up from it isn't the same, and they feel it is an embarassment to them. The boys who don't have the physical makeup to bring the hard heat can survive in the meantime by perfecting movement, location, and keeping hitters off balance. As the Lincecum chart above shows, its not easy either. There is a relatively small range of velocity in which his changeup has positive value. Too fast or too slow and it has no value.
BOF your spot on. The cu's effectiveness is directly related to the ability of the pitcher to challenge and locate with his heater. When hitters are forced to sit hard on a pitchers fb because he has one that they have to sit on to hit the cu becomes the great equalizer and is "killer". When a pitcher does not have a fb that forces hitters to sit hard on it in order to bang it the cu is not nearly as effective.

The best pitch in baseball always has been a well located heater everything works off of that. Folks its the reason velo is so important. It forces the hitter to speed the process up.
Every pitcher has his "out" pitch. For some its a fastball and for others its a hard curveball. For Lincecum its his change-up. It is by far his best pitch in my opinion. Every pitcher wants an edge- whether its velocity or movement or just plain deception. Lincecum has a little of all which is what makes him great.

But I like to think of the whole fear factor in batters- let them state what they fear in a pitcher. For batters facing Lincecum, it is obvious that they fear his CU- they even state that and how difficult it is too pick up. If a pitchers best pitch is what is defined as instilling fear in a batter then the CU is definately Lincecums best pitch he has.
Couple things to keep in mind.

1 - Lincecum was drafted in the first round before he had developed a changeup. He is where he is at due to his fastball.

2 - He throws his change up in the mid 80s. It's basically a splitfinger.

In order to throw an effective changeup with mid 80s velocity a pitcher needs to have a mid 90s fastball, which is something he does have. So if the change is his best pitch, it's largely because of his fastball. He was absolutely outstanding without the change. The change has made him even better.
You are right in that without his fastball the CU is nothing. There are many things that make Lincecum special- his deceptive windup and delivery to his small frame and yet large stride.

But the thing propelling him into stardom is his use of offspeed pitches. Specifically, his CU as a pitch to screw batters up is what is making him so great. Almost every pitcher in the big leagues can throw with his velocity but very few can throw a CU with such effectiveness as he can, and that is specifically why he has a low era and is again in line to get the Cy Young award.

I ask- is it his fastaball that is exceptional or is it his CU? It is obviously the CU. That is his best pitch.

I will always argue the best pitch in baseball is a properly thrown CU because it mimicks the properties of the fastball in every way only that batters can't hit it- its like its a cruel magic trick.
I have to agree with PG here...most MLB pitchers (especially starters) aren't pumping 95+ consistently. I would guess that average major league velocity range for starters is something like 88-92. Just a guess...now bullpen guys that can air it out for short bursts average more, but they aren't going to have the depth of stuff that Lincecum has either. There are many reasons for pitchers going to the bullpen...one of the biggies in my mind is lack of a third pitch.
I agree with PG in the fact that he was pretty darn good before the CU. I think due to him being such a max effort type thrower , it helps him really sells the CU even more. You don;t see a lot of max effort throwers who can get a feel for the CU and repeat it. He is special.
Not to mention he competes his rear end off.
Dirtbag

I agree with you in regards to the FB being the pitch that sets everything else up, but I dont think a heater as oppossed to just a good average FB makes a difference. For me its all about locating the FB, establishing both sides of the plate, and then selling CU to where it emulates the FB. Of course the harder you throw the harder it gets, but some of best CU guys I have ever seen didnt throw gas. Hoffman, Maddox, Viola, Moyer, and many more. You would be surprized how many guys throw in the upper 89's but with action and down plain. JMHO
Gingerbreadman

If you ask most MLB hitters what the hardest pitch to hit is, most are going to tell you it the hard slider. In todays game most would probably tell you Randy Johnsons in his day and I would venture to think that Riveras cutter would be mentioned a time or two. Good hitters have the ability to stay back and go the other way and still have quick enough hand to hit the FB. Thats what makes them a Pro.

As far as Linceome, great mound awareness, great FB, Cu that is identical to his Fb and then you throw in a CB that will make you look bad. All this combined with the fact that he pounds the strike zone with all pitches makes him the all star he has become. Pretty small,max effort, hope he stays together.....jmho like him more with a trim,,lol
I also agree with PG. TL (as most pitchers) was drafted for his fastball, his off speed compliments that.
In HS, son's best pitch was his change up, he too threw them for first pitch strikes, you can do that on that level, you can't as you move up. I agree, most mlb will tell you they dread the slider the most.
The bi
I also agree with PG. TL (as most pitchers) was drafted for his fastball, his off speed compliments that.
In HS, son's best pitch was his change up, he too threw them for first pitch strikes, you can do that on that level, you can't as you move up. I agree, most mlb will tell you they dread the slider the most.
The biggest gambler on the mound was Maddox, whose father was a dealer in LV and he based his game largly on numerical odds. He also studied every batter he faced personally, knew every weakness they had.
Spiz,
Erik Manning is a friend of mine, who just began writing for fangraphs, and he will be pleased to know his article sparked debate. He lives in the Cedar Rapids area, I keep telling him to contact PG. He writes some great stuff.
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
quote:

....How many scouts do you see at HS games looking at the guy with a 83 MPH fastball and a killer change up?


.... A good change-up has the same exact effect in high school or the majors.

....plenty of pitchers in professional ball most of which can throw 90+mph (if not all minus just a few).

Of those who is effective? The guys who have great offspeed pitches. A pitcher with 91 mph velocity coupled with a great change-up will advance to the majors way quicker and is more projectable than a pitcher who throws 96mph with a weak change-up. Whos more deadly- pitcher with an average fastball with above average change-up or a a pitcher with above average fastball but weak change-up?


GB: I am enjoying your enthusiasm.

BOF observations is a "near-beer" point of view.

As for me, there many young scouts "near-watching" the ball games I attend. This means watching with radar gun in hand, pencil and paper in the other, and head down writing 40% of the time (and NOT watching).

Lest us NOT forget, the number 1 pitch in baseball is the fastball. Hitting spots with ol #1, and if there is late movement, will miss bats.
I was taught in the early 70's to add several ticks to every inch of movement. Thus an 85 mph fastball with three inches of movement rolls over a many pro hitter.

Typically, the American arms in low MiLB, have
an arsenal of pitches (& if blessed with mid-upper 90s fastball) are special. The foreign born MiLB pitchers (with the exception of Orient) are blessed with power arms, yet in order to move up, seek to learn and improve their off speed pitches and ability to throw quality strikes. Many never get to A+ ball.

However, for my family of pitches, the Sister Slidepiece on the black, and the MF CU for strikes are the nemesis of many pro hitters in all pro leagues.

cheers
Last edited by Bear
It could be argued all day long really. The CU is "the best pitch" in baseball in my opinion. I have studied the CU for several years and have made my own conclusions based off of the data. Like was said- calculating the numerical odds- taking both a mathematical approach and a results approach. It is true that everything is based off of a pitchers fastball (except for the few knukleballers and such).

The batter as such, times a pitchers arm motion as it relates to his velocity. Doing this gives him the greatest advantage for timing and hitting the fastball. Technically speaking, any pitch thrown at a lower velocity than the fastabll is an offspeed pitch. Mathematically, it is harder for the batter to pick up the velocity of a straighter pitch versus a "breaking" pitch. Many would thus think that the fastball would be the hardest to time. But this is not so, why? Because batters see more fastballs than any other pitch, they learn how to time the pitch. Mental triggers go off in the brain based first off of arm speed and then ball speed second. Breaking pitches lose their deception too quickly in general because as soon as the pitch begins to break, the batter can instantly calculate velocity and its projected plane and thus meet the ball better. The CU on the other hand, when thrown on the same plane as the fastball will not set off triggers to the mind until later in its flight over the other offspeed pitches of what its velocity actually is and its projected plane of trajectory. This is what makes it so deceptive. Batters who swing and miss actually think when they begin their swing that it is the fastball they are swinging at.

No ther pitch in baseball can mimick the fastball for a greater period of time during its flight. I have video showing that a batters timing motions are the same when he swings on a fastball or the CU. This tells me that batters must make an added adjustment to hit the CU- thus it is a harder pitch to hit because the batter must make more motions and calculations to hit it.

Breaking pitches are relatively easier to pick up what they are because of their early break away from the fastball trajectory. CU's traject on the same plane as the fastball the longest amount of time before dropping and fading in or out.
How much a hitter dreads a pitchers off speed stuff is directly related to how hard he throws , how much movement his fastball has and how well he can locate his heater. It all relates to the most important pitch a pitcher has and that is his fastball.

In hs a pitcher with a dominant fastball gets hurt often when using the cu. All he does is speed up the batters bat and allows them to do damage. The good hs hitters dread the cu because it slows down their bats and allows the pitcher to get his fastball by them. Without a fastball that can command the respect of the hitter the cu is not nearly as effective.

The best pitch in baseball has been , is and always will be a well located dominate fastball with some movement.
way to go Dirtbags.

I don't think that anyone is arguing that a CU is easy to hit.

I do in some way like GBM enthusiasm, but I have never really heard of half the things done that he claims he does with his son and team. 13 and 14 year olds should be throwing FB for first pitch strikes, throwing off speed means there is more emphasis on the W than development. JMO.

You can't compare what 13-14 year olds fear vs pro players.
quote:
How much a hitter dreads a pitchers off speed stuff is directly related to how hard he throws , how much movement his fastball has and how well he can locate his heater. It all relates to the most important pitch a pitcher has and that is his fastball.

In hs a pitcher with a dominant fastball gets hurt often when using the cu. All he does is speed up the batters bat and allows them to do damage. The good hs hitters dread the cu because it slows down their bats and allows the pitcher to get his fastball by them. Without a fastball that can command the respect of the hitter the cu is not nearly as effective.

The best pitch in baseball has been , is and always will be a well located dominate fastball with some movement.



From what you are saying, Lincecum, having a dominant fastball (as all seem to claim and I am oblidged) should not be throwing the CU? Doesn't make any sense. Saying a dominant fastball pitcher in HS shouldn't be throwing a CU- that it will get hammered is completely ridiculous. Maybe you do not understand the mechanics/physics of the CU or offspeed pitch and how it creates added deception.

I will agree that a good CU will make the fastball seem or appear faster than it actually is but good hitters, especially at or above the HS level should always be thinking "fastball" velocity and then gear down for the offspeed.

A pitcher with a dominant fastball at any level of the game should never be damaged by an equally good CU. That is an often misguided perception or lack of trust in ability in a pitcher. I once had a coach that said- "you should never throw the CU after a batter fouls the fastball off his bat". Nothing could be further from the truth! A hitter who is able to foul off the fastball already basically has figured out your timing. Throwing an offspeed pitch after one or more foul balls is just what the doctor ordered. Even at the HS level batters- the good ones, will catch up to a fast live fastball, especially if that is all the pitcher throws. Without at least one offspeed pitch in his arsenal to back up the fastball, the fatsball just becomes another crushed ball that batters get a hold of.
quote:
way to go Dirtbags.

I don't think that anyone is arguing that a CU is easy to hit.

I do in some way like GBM enthusiasm, but I have never really heard of half the things done that he claims he does with his son and team. 13 and 14 year olds should be throwing FB for first pitch strikes, throwing off speed means there is more emphasis on the W than development. JMO.

You can't compare what 13-14 year olds fear vs pro players.



So tell me- what is wrong with throwing a first pitch offspeed pitch, especially if it works in keeping pitch counts lower, quicker innings, and boosts confidence in team and instill fear in the opposition?

You know its funny that you think I think it is all about winning and not development. Nothing could be more of an oxymoron! You do not develop players if you cannot win! How many successful teams have losing records? NONE! The W or the L is the result of development and talent coupled together. If you have more L than W then it tells me that the "development" on the team is not working- that either the coaching sucks, the players suck, or both.

We do not train players to go out and plan on batters teeing off on them- in fact that is exactly what we do not want in their development. If we know that a team is aggressive on hitting then it only seems logical that you would especially throw different against them- like throwing offspeed for the first pitch. Nothing wrong with that!

I think what you may have forgot is that in most any professional ballplayer is that experience learned and gained when they were 13-14 years old. Those same things they learn at that level sticks with them forever. If first pitch CU works against good batters at the 13-14 year old level then it is also going to work at the major league level- and I shouldn't have to remind you that many a pro pitcher will throw a first pitch CU to a good hitter. Batters who have fears about pitches at 13-14 will go on to continue having that same fear as pros- it just increases exponentially as the pitches get faster and faster- but then again, so does their reaction times and ability to get the bat around quicker- it all equals out.

CU's are just as effective at 13-14 as they are at 23-24 in the pros. Batters still look just as foolish as pros as they did at 13-14 swinging at the CU they misjudged- that will always be the same!
i really wish young kids would learn the importance of a change up rather than a curve. I have coached high school and youth baseball and i have not coached or seen one pitcher who had a change up with enough off of it or they could throw for a strike consistently in a game. Then i go watch 12,13 year olds play and the kids throw 40% curveballs its ridiculous. I am the perfect example of how a good change up can take a mediocre pitcher to the next level. I am lefty dont throw hard enough to break glass but i have a good change up i can throw for a strike whenever i want...when my change don't work i get hit around pretty well ha but i love it i can use it whenever 0-1 0-2 3-2 2-0 its an amazing pitch when you can command it and no one consistently hits a good change up hard.
I'll put my 2 cents in. The change up is an awesome pitch. However, it is a pitch that needs another pitch to set it up. There are plenty of pitchers that have made it to pro ball throwing nothing but a fastball. There are no pitchers who have made it to pro ball throwing only a change up. Therefore, I think the fastball is still the best pitch.

Will the change up make the fastball better? Absolutely. Can the change up be a very effective pitch? Yep. But, without a fastball, the change up is not any good. A fastball without a change up can still be effective and get you to the next level.
quote:
i really wish young kids would learn the importance of a change up rather than a curve. I have coached high school and youth baseball and i have not coached or seen one pitcher who had a change up with enough off of it or they could throw for a strike consistently in a game. Then i go watch 12,13 year olds play and the kids throw 40% curveballs its ridiculous. I am the perfect example of how a good change up can take a mediocre pitcher to the next level. I am lefty dont throw hard enough to break glass but i have a good change up i can throw for a strike whenever i want...when my change don't work i get hit around pretty well ha but i love it i can use it whenever 0-1 0-2 3-2 2-0 its an amazing pitch when you can command it and no one consistently hits a good change up hard.


I see a few players each year in travel ball that have good change-ups. The problem is however that they don't believe in the pitch and seldom throw it. The problem I see with kids throwing Change-ups, or trying to throw them, is that they are taking "too much" off of it and turning it into a lob ball of sorts. The general rule of thumb is 10% slower than the fastball. At our age this would equate to 6-8 mph slower. But what I constantly see is about 10-15 mph slower which is too much. I always tell these kids that it is too slow to be effective and yet they just won't listen. They honestly feel that the change should be more of a drastic change. It should be a subtle change to be effective. I have video of son throwing effective change-ups and if you slow the video down by the batters swing it shows that the batter just barely swings too early through the zone missing the ball by mere inches. Sometimes they do hit it but they are so far ahead that the ball is off the end of the bat weakly hit back to the pitcher or shortstop.
GBM,
For the record I never said that a CU was not a good effective pitch. My pitcher learned to throw one early and didn't throw CB's until he was 15-16. His CU was was most likely his best pitch, he wasn't afraid to use it and worked well, but never threw a CU until he showed his FB. He was a pitch to contact hitter (less wrok on teh arm) at your son's age, so that ALL players on the team had a chance to develop. Nothing worse, IMO than having a very young team begin daydreaming in the field while the pitcher is striking kids out with CU and CB's, which leads me, personally to beleive that the W is very important for your 13-14 year old. Development is not all about winning, you see that everyday in milb.
Yes, son did throw in HS, CU on a first pitch, but actually he could have thrown a dirtball and had success, the reason being his primary pitch, was and still is the FB, and that they were afraid of.

I just don't get your way of thinking, but that's ok, if that builds confidance in your son, go for it. Problem is, if he someday makes it to college or beyond, his first pitch will most likely not be a CU, no matter how good it is.

FWIW, was watching a game the other day, pitcher threw a CU, the reply by the announcers was, you NEVER throw a CU for a first pitch, however, seems to me the pitcher didn't have his velocity that day, so that may have been the reason. Sometimes you just got to use what's working that day, but, that pitcher had a lot more experience in what he was doing than yours and mine and everyone elses together.
quote:
GBM,
For the record I never said that a CU was not a good effective pitch. My pitcher learned to throw one early and didn't throw CB's until he was 15-16. His CU was was most likely his best pitch, he wasn't afraid to use it and worked well, but never threw a CU until he showed his FB. He was a pitch to contact hitter (less wrok on teh arm) at your son's age, so that ALL players on the team had a chance to develop. Nothing worse, IMO than having a very young team begin daydreaming in the field while the pitcher is striking kids out with CU and CB's, which leads me, personally to beleive that the W is very important for your 13-14 year old. Development is not all about winning, you see that everyday in milb.
Yes, son did throw in HS, CU on a first pitch, but actually he could have thrown a dirtball and had success, the reason being his primary pitch, was and still is the FB, and that they were afraid of.

I just don't get your way of thinking, but that's ok, if that builds confidance in your son, go for it. Problem is, if he someday makes it to college or beyond, his first pitch will most likely not be a CU, no matter how good it is.

FWIW, was watching a game the other day, pitcher threw a CU, the reply by the announcers was, you NEVER throw a CU for a first pitch, however, seems to me the pitcher didn't have his velocity that day, so that may have been the reason. Sometimes you just got to use what's working that day, but, that pitcher had a lot more experience in what he was doing than yours and mine and everyone elses together.



Son threw first pitch CU's to the best travel team around known for their ability to crush first pitch strikes. They would all pretty much swing out of their shoes on that first pitch and miss it. It was a great strategy that allowed son to pitch deep into the game saving his arm.

I see lots of first pitch CU's at the major league level- it does work.

I agree that different days some pitches work better than others. There have been times when son never throws more than one or two CU's in a game- just isn't working. other games he throws at least one CU to each batter when it is working.

Pitching to batters is also knowing their weaknesses which takes some amount of scouting. Normally son doesn't throw a CU for a first pitch. Usually he throws a fastball low in the zone. I do believe in the philosophy of throwing fastballs until they show that they can hit, and then start mixing in the offspeed.
What's wrong with hitters hitting a first pitch FB? You don't think there are valuable lessons to learn from that? Or is it that your son's team is too weak on teh field? Who is getting the benefit here, do you coach these kids, sounds like a lot of daddy ball going on.
I don't believe in your strategy, he has to learn to not be afraid to face those that can "crush" the ball. And those in the field need to get in their work, that is what effective coaching is all about, at that age. Yup, what you DO learn at 13 and 14 can stick with you, and being afraid of hitters as a pitcher is not a good thing.

You scout 13 and 14 year old teams? If you do, that does mean the W is all important.
Last edited by TPM

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