College Recruit Rankings

A D1 HC that runs a winter camp my son attends talked to the kids and told them that unless it is your absolute "dream" school, it is not a good idea to verbally commit early...and even then it is somewhat risky.

The reason being is that it basically takes you off the other coaches' radar (you have already committed to a school, why should other coaches waste their time recruiting/following you).

It is also non-binding. A school may get a kid to commit as a freshman based on the assumption he is going to continue to develop along a certain trajectory. If the kid doesn't develop the way the school hoped, they back out of the "deal"...sometimes at the last minute. Since this kid has been off the radar of other schools (who have recruited other kids at his position), the kid is often left scrambling for a backup plan at the 11th hour.

He basically said that committing early mostly benefits the schools, in that they "lock up" these prospects early with a handshake and then just watch and decide whether they really want to keep them/offer them money  later.

Most of these programs are top 25 that compete to go to Omaha each year and yes they are offering early before anyone else takes them off the radar.  These players are exceptional and some early draft pics as well. These guys know what they are doing.  These recruits are the cream of the crop from their class.

So a lot of this is about being seen by these programs early enough, that is why major tournaments are important to attend if you are far from these programs, but realistically these player will attend very close to home.

We have an underclass player on our HS team who is committed to one of those schools in the top 10 of C2019's list up there so I can understand why he committed - there are only so many spots that appear to be open if you are one of those players and if you want to go to one of those schools you need to be part of that early wave.  

However I have seen first hand what happens when a school changes plans.  2016 played this fall with a player who committed (and not super early) to a D1 school down south.  He played all summer last year and even the fall as a "committed" player.  In Oct the school contacted him and told him they had over recruited for the 2016 class and they no-longer had a spot for him.  Just like that he's SOL.   By that point in the year his options were really limited.  They had some schools come look at him that weekend but they didn't find a spot for him.  I believe he's attending a JUCO this fall.  

TPM brings up a point often missed - even by me. The vast majority of the early commitments are to the very top programs. Further, these are usually guys that are pretty much developed to an acceptable level already. The 6' 4" 2018 throwing 89-90 mph will be just fine to them if he doesn't add a single mph.

Some of these kids appear to be wolves in sheep's clothing.  Saw a 2018 commit who is already 6 months older than my 2017 - will be something like 19 years 5 months at draft.  Looked at the Duke 2018 commits (thought Duke was probably a group of more "normal" age kids with really good grades).  Average draft age would be 18 years 9 months.  You do see a sprinkling or younger ages (saw a few that had not yet reached 16 yo) but they seem to be the exception for the 2018 class.  Only 87 teams get ranked (100 slots available) and 53 of those teams have 2 or fewer recruits, so you can see this is really clustered towards the top teams.  Saw an article about 2015 draft that listed young/old high school draft prospects - 18 and under was considered young while 19 and older was considered old.  Got curious and took a look at Duke's 2017 class - average is around the same 18yr 9mo at draft but this gets pushed up by on that will be 19yr 5mo.  That 6-4 2018 throwing 89-90 mph might have been driving himself to school the last few months of his freshman year - maybe the only kid driving himslef home from freshman practice.  I realize there are good reasons for this at times, but I get  a sense that it is starting to get a little too widespread (i.e. crazy parent syndrome) where they basically figure they can increase their ranking by simply repeating 8th grade.  Some of the 2018 commits may be early based on grad year but not real early based on the birthdate.

This is yet another piece of the puzzle that ties into the other thread about over doing showcases and such. You feel as if you are "forced" to keep competing to prove your worth. Root is making a very intelligent and mature decision with his player I feel. The only way to stop the madness is to lock schools and players into a NLI as early as both parties agree. This will solve a lot of the issues I think. 

MKbaseballdad posted:

We have an underclass player on our HS team who is committed to one of those schools in the top 10 of C2019's list up there so I can understand why he committed - there are only so many spots that appear to be open if you are one of those players and if you want to go to one of those schools you need to be part of that early wave.  

However I have seen first hand what happens when a school changes plans.  2016 played this fall with a player who committed (and not super early) to a D1 school down south.  He played all summer last year and even the fall as a "committed" player.  In Oct the school contacted him and told him they had over recruited for the 2016 class and they no-longer had a spot for him.  Just like that he's SOL.   By that point in the year his options were really limited.  They had some schools come look at him that weekend but they didn't find a spot for him.  I believe he's attending a JUCO this fall.  

If I had my way the school would lose scholarships, the coach would be suspended and the team would suffer as a result of being a pig...then things would change! The problem is there is no down side for the coaches or school.

Make it personal, make it hurt and the problem goes away. Lord knows these high and mighty organizations have banded to get to form the NCAA and screw the athlete whenever possible.

So if a school should be punished for withdrawing its commiment, what should happen when a player withdraws his commitment? 

October is before the early signing period, if the player is that good he can find a place for him to play.  Personally I always wonder about the truth in these stories.

What about the prospect that commits, signs a NLI and indicates to scouts that he will sign and never shows up? But the coach who recruited him is a bum for over recruiting?  These programs have to over recruit.  

You dont think that  programs have a lot more show up than needed as well and let players loose  after spring practice?

This is it folks, it's not going to change. How can you control the situation, make sure that your son commits to the program that is right for him! He doesn't have to say yes because he is afraid no one else will ask. If he commits and you have to worry about if it was the right decision, it wasnt.

Perhaps the biggest problem in many cases is the timing involved.

It is hard to blame anyone, the college coach or the player.  But when things don't work out it can be more devastating to the player.

This becomes more devastating when the college decides they are no longer interested in the player with only a month before the early signing period.  Many end up at a Junior College when that happens.

So if nothing else I wish there was a rule or deadline when college coaches had to inform kids that had committed early that they are no longer wanted. Something like June 1st, so that player would still have the summer and fall  before his senior year to gain new recruiting interest.  But we know of some kids that find out a month before the early signing period in Novemer.  That really puts them in a bad situation.  So the effect on the player can be huge.... while the effect on the college is, what?????

PG, and others with experience: do baseball programs not do like a lot of football programs and let guys know that their offers are at least somewhat conditional on another guy not comitting or some other such reasoning?  Dont they tell people where they fit in the order as they get offers letting them know that they are not guaranteed?  

I guess you never know what you will do until you are faced with making a decision to commit or to wait.  There is difference between committing early  to Vandy, LSU or Florida and committing early to a mid-major.  of course there are examples of players committing early and for whatever reason it does no work out.  That's life though right? 

younggun posted:

This is yet another piece of the puzzle that ties into the other thread about over doing showcases and such. You feel as if you are "forced" to keep competing to prove your worth. Root is making a very intelligent and mature decision with his player I feel. The only way to stop the madness is to lock schools and players into a NLI as early as both parties agree. This will solve a lot of the issues I think. 

I'm for colleges not being able to talk to a prospect in any shape or form until June 1 after their soph year of high school. From June 1 on post soph year a player should be able to sign an NLI. 

The problem with real early recruiting is it overlooks academics. How many kids know what they want for a major or potential career heading into freshman or soph year of high school? A lot of seniors don't know.

i realize a top recruit is often heading for college to major in baseball with the rainbow of a pro career in their eyes. Many of them will come to realize how far from reality a pro career is by soph year of college ball. 

Every player headed for a Power 5 or other ranked or near ranked program thinks he's a pro prospect. A majority of them turn out to be wrong.

i dealt with this with a female athlete. Girls physically mature sooner. It's common to be pursued freshman and soph year. My daughter verballed soph year. Fortunately she knew what she wanted for a major. However, deciding to go to law school when she was a soph in college negated her initial career vision. Now instead of collecting and examining the evidence (majored in forensic science) she will be doing the prosecuting.

Don't early recruits have to sign a NLI like every one else when they are eligible to do so?   Trying to understand how a kid gets left out to dry in his senior year.

bandera posted:

Don't early recruits have to sign a NLI like every one else when they are eligible to do so?   Trying to understand how a kid gets left out to dry in his senior year.

An early recruit is only verballing his commitment. Nothing can be signed until October of senior year. What often happens is the coach will tell the player he will honor the first year of the offer (most offers are year to year). But they will tell the player they don't see an avenue where the player gets playing time. What player wouldn't run away from this? Now the issue becomes where can he find a roster spot, a scholarship and potential playing time at the last minute. He will probably end up at a JuCo fighting with fifty players for an opportunity.

bandera posted:

Don't early recruits have to sign a NLI like every one else when they are eligible to do so?   Trying to understand how a kid gets left out to dry in his senior year.

The early recruits have nothing but an unenforceable verbal agreement until they sign their national letters of intent during the early signing period in the fall of their senior year. 

So it is possible for a player to agree to an offer as a junior or even a sophomore, only to have the deal fall through at the last minute, either because of grades, conduct, or just the unforgiving math of allocating 11.7 scholarships among 27 players on a 35-man roster. 

TPM posted:

So if a school should be punished for withdrawing its commiment, what should happen when a player withdraws his commitment? 

October is before the early signing period, if the player is that good he can find a place for him to play.  Personally I always wonder about the truth in these stories.

What about the prospect that commits, signs a NLI and indicates to scouts that he will sign and never shows up? But the coach who recruited him is a bum for over recruiting?  These programs have to over recruit.  

You dont think that  programs have a lot more show up than needed as well and let players loose  after spring practice?

This is it folks, it's not going to change. How can you control the situation, make sure that your son commits to the program that is right for him! He doesn't have to say yes because he is afraid no one else will ask. If he commits and you have to worry about if it was the right decision, it wasnt.

 

 

 

 

I do I agree with you that it isn't going to change, at least anytime soon. That being said stop recruiting HS freshmen and you won't have to worry about them not showing up....this isn't about individual schools, it is about the institution of the NCAA. I do believe at some point probably not that far off into the future (less then 20 yrs) the NCAA will be blown up via internal and or legal methods. I don't think there is any doubt in most peoples minds that it is the worst and most disingenuous organization that most of us have ever heard of or had dealings with.

Full disclosure I actually do hold the schools to blame for the NCAA because they use it as screen, it does the dirty work the schools don't want to be a part of and they can just act innocent...it is really sickening. Coaches recruiting 14 and 15 year olds only matters to us because we are baseball junkies. There are far larger issues in other sports that are going to cause the implosion...

Summary - Universities across the land act high and mighty while hiding behind an organization they created and control. It is long overdue to destroyed and college baseball (actually all sports but I only really care about baseball) will be better off with out it. IMO!