College Velo

I'm not sure about those conferences. About seven years ago I asked a pro scout at an A10 game about average cruising speed. He said about 85. He was there to watchh a couple of 90+ closers. There's been a shuffling of schools in these conference. But they're about the same level of play with the exception of a couple of teams.

From what I have seen in what would be considered the one bid (to NCAA tournament) leagues. there are a few guys that can hit 90. The Horizon league (which my son plays in), has 7 teams. On those 7 teams, I would guess there are 20-25 guys that can throw 90 - There are 7-8 on his team but his team has the best pitching I have seen this year (one more team to see and they are tied for 1st with my son's team). Only 2-5 from the league can hit that consistently. Way more than half can throw high 80's and those that throwing it the most consistently and with some sort of off-speed command are the ones that pitch the most. Everyone else can throw 82 -85 consistently. But those guys get limited innings or are on a bad pitching team and generally get hit pretty hard. 1-2 innings at most. His team has played probably 7-9 (I didn't count) other teams that would be in similar types of conferences and of course in those his teams sees the mid week starters. I would say from what I have seen, the same velo is reflective in those teams as well.

The one thing I have seen is for those guys that throw in the 83-87 range, lots and lots of times they throw much slower than that on purpose, then mix in the fastball about 30-40% of the time and when they throw it, it looks 90 vs the 73MPH off-speed they are getting a steady diet of.  

So, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the radar gun for a few reasons.  First, I've been to a number of games only to find out the stadium radar gun is not calibrated correctly.  Second, is the velocity enough to get it by hitters when the pitcher really needs to?  If so, it is kind of irrelevent.  Both of these conferences are going to be mid to lower level D1s but D1s none the less.  I've been to a dozen or so Patriot League games (Navy, Bucknell, Army, Lafayette) over the years, and their weekend starters were typically in the mid 80s to low 90s range.   I recall a few years ago, Navy and Bucknell had a couple studs that were throwing hard and stayed long into their games.  

As a potential recruit I would pay attention to the pitching philosphy, types of pitches featured, control, and late movement.  Are the pitchers good at holding runners?  Are the pitchers skilled inducing groundballs/doubleplays at the right time?  Does the program feature all kinds of release points or do they have a cookie cutter approach on the mound?   MPH is important, but there are other factors.  MPH that is straight and predictable get crushed by most D1 hitters. 

I would agree that the radar gun on the board may not always be accurate.  Another thing to consider is that sometimes pitchers pitch a little slower for control.  My son says he throws his 2 seamer, which is a little slower than his 4 seamer, because the coach likes the way the 2 seam pitch moves more. 

Watched/attended many MW conference games past few years. Most teams have guys in the mid to upper 80's. I would say half the staff sat 90+ and several of those guys could run it up to mid 90's.

Attended CCAA DII games this past weekend. Four of the six starters were 90+ and the other two were mid 80's. Both LHP & RHP.

I would say the difference between DI & DII was control and movement. These velo's were hand held gunned, not score board radar.

2014: Navy LHP (sp #1) was sitting 89 - 91 against an Ivy LHP pitcher sitting 90 - 3. 

As others have said:

-Those are lower tier D1 leagues
-Radar guns installed in stadiums are often slow

Oregon State (#1) has three starters who could be drafted in the top 75 picks (Heimlich, Thompson, Rasmussen). Heimlich is left-handed and the slowest thrower, "only" 90-94 MPH. Thompson is 90-96 T98 and Rasmussen coming off TJ has been 94-98. Their closer is a low-angle lefty, Max Engelbrekt, who throws primarily cutters at 84-87 MPH with plus to plus-plus D1 command.

North Carolina (#2 or #3) has a Friday starter who has touched 100 MPH in the past (JB) and a Sunday guy who has hit 97 and pitched for U18 Team USA (Bergner). They cut their Saturday guy before the season started who was a T100 draft guy.

At the top of the D1 rankings, velocity is king. Move further down enough and surely you'll find exceptions. But most of the T25 schools have either fireballers or guys that hit a ton of home runs to compensate for lack of pitching.

Kyle knows much more than me or maybe anyone else on this site re: velocity.  I'll also concur with Fenway having seen a lot of Patriot and Ivy baseball. 

Good velocity is now everywhere.  Driveline, TX Ranch, FL Ranch, et.al. are helping a lot of pitchers maximize their velocity, command, and change of speeds.  It's an exciting time to be a pitcher...and the father of one!

My oldest was a D1 RHP, who looked at several D2 and D3 schools last Fall to transfer.  Most schools we visited had at least half their staffs in the upper 80's.  The Top 25 contenders were fairly loaded.

He was constantly at 93 with his four seam fastball last weekend in the playoffs.  The opposite starter was consistently at 88.   Half his staff is 85+...and half is 78-84.  They're a mid tier D3.  The 78 RHPs didn't play this year. 

His team played several Top 25 D3 teams this year and all had at least a few guys 88+.  D1 roster limitations, better training and coaching, etc., continues to move velocity down the food chain.  Roster depth at all positions is more limited, power hitting is less, physical size of players is smaller IMO, but there's an amazing amount of pitching velocity even in D3.

Watched Maryland vs Illinois on the BTN a few days ago both pitchers were low to mid 80s

The top D2 schools also have flamethrowers. Cal Poly Pomona last year had two legit guys, their Saturday guy killing it in pro ball right now (Peter Bayer, Richmond transfer). Mercyhurst (#1) had the D2 pitcher of the year not long ago in Dan Altavilla, who is now the setup man for the Mariners in the big leagues sitting 95+ and touching 100 MPH. Millersville is always competitive and runs out multiple 88-92+ MPH arms on the weekends. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both programs use velocity programs. D2/D3/NAIA is a great place where schools can actually focus on development and should be investing their limited resources into those programs; good D1 programs can often choose their recruits in a more stingy way.

Certainly guys compete and get outs in the low 80s in college ball. It's just becoming significantly more rare that it happens, and even more rare that the kids get significant scholarship money.

You know I'm not into bragging, but it is possible that I personally may have recorded more radar gun readings than any human being ever.  It's really nothing to brag about because most scouts and recruiters don't gun every pitcher they see.  Neither did I back in my scouting and coaching life.

I'm not very smart, but for over 10 years I pretty much pointed that radar gun at every single pitcher (good or not) I saw.  And because nobody could possibly have seen more pitchers it must mean no one has recorded more velocity readings. No I can't prove it, just seems right.

This would include somewhere around 500 pitchers that made it to the Big Leagues and many of the  top HS pitchers over the past 20+ years.  I have seen pitchers throw 90+ in HS and throw 86-88 in college.  Also have seen pitchers that topped out around 86 in HS throw mid 90s in college.  The thing that stands out the most over the past 30 years, 20 years and 10 years is the increase in velocity.  20 years ago I would get excited when I saw a HS pitcher touching 90.  Now days it is more common to see a HS kid throwing 95 mph.  Every year we see more than a hundred HS pitchers just entering their senior year touching 90 or better at just one event (the WWBA Championship in Jupiter).  Every year there are hundreds of HS kids capable of throwing 90 or better.

Even with those numbers there is not enough to go around for DI teams.  The top programs load up with them, but there are around 300 DI programs.  If each program used primarily 6-8 pitcher to get most of the innings, it would take around 2,000 90 mph guys to fill all those spots.  And several of the very highest velocity guys never get to a college campus. So it should be very obvious that there are a lot of DI pitchers out there that don't throw 90 mph once you get past the top power programs.  Also keep in mind that being capable of throwing 90 or better doesn't always mean that pitcher will throw 90 mph very often.  So what is more desirable a pitcher that is capable of throwing 90 or a pitcher that is capable of throwing 85?  Obviously there are other things to consider but generally the 90 mph guy taking 5 mph off his fastball will be better throwing 85 than the guy that peaks at 85.

People always want to use Maddux as an example of a pitcher that didn't throw with great velocity.  They must not know that he threw with much more velocity as a junior in HS than he did when he won some of those Cy Young awards.  And he was a power pitcher when he started his professional career.

I think again it comes down to what is your goal also.  I think sometimes these velocity talks break down cause some are only thinking about what it takes to be a weekend pitcher, some think about what it takes to be a starter on any day of the week, some innings, or just be on the team.  All those are separate levels.  Yes on better D3's your ace probably is in the 90's.  The 13th pitcher will be lucky to break 80 on a regular basis.  For mid D1 no doubt best pitchers are in the 90's.  The 13th guy?  varies widely I am sure.  But low to mid 80's would be a good guess.  I can tell you if any school offered my son a ride in football combined with being the 35th roster spot and 17th pitcher on the baseball team he would want to commit to that school on the spot.  Some would look down their nose at that attitude but he just loves being around the game.  And deep down he believes he would compete over his four years and win some innings.  But the point is some are fine and dandy with being the last kid on the roster.  And those kids are not 90's guys.

I was recently reading a 1990 Chicago Tribune article concerning Scott Brocail, the younger brother of Rangers PC Doug Broacail. Both are from our small Colorado High School. Actually, the article was about scouting and following one Cub's scout around while he scouted Brocail. During the first game he scouted, there were several MLB scouts in the stands at our high school (a long way out in the sticks) to see Scott pitch. He hit 90mph ONCE and the scouts were talking about it ("I got 90, anybody else get 90?). Brocail's father was interviewed for the article and was quoted as saying that was the first time he had hit 90 and Doug never hit 90 in high school. Doug was a first round draft pick (though out of JC).

The point is that you only have to go back to 1990 to see a time where hitting 90 got a lot of excitement. Now, 90 is quite common. This has even increased in the past 3-4 years. Two years ago, my son dreamed of hitting 90 - that was his goal. Only now, that he gets there, the goal posts get moved! Now 92-95 becomes what guys are shooting for. Training is so much better and our knowledge of mechanics is so much better today than just 5-10 years ago. When you look at the kind of work they're doing at places like Driveline, and you look at how little we still know, you really have to wonder where the ceiling will eventually settle.

Son's team has 4 guys that can throw 92 on a good day.  3 of them threw last night.  My son threw 3+ last night and was 90-92, 4 K's, 1 H, no walks...probably his best outing of the year.

Guy that came in after him has thrown 6 innings all year....hit 92 but walked 3 straight before being pulled

Last guy had thrown 6 all year also.....threw 4.1, up to 92....3 H, 4 K's....and was up to 80 pitches before the opponent's walk off single in the 12th.

One starter has hit 93......the other 2 weekend guys are 85-87.

roothog66 posted:

I was recently reading a 1990 Chicago Tribune article concerning Scott Brocail, the younger brother of Rangers PC Doug Broacail. Both are from our small Colorado High School. Actually, the article was about scouting and following one Cub's scout around while he scouted Brocail. During the first game he scouted, there were several MLB scouts in the stands at our high school (a long way out in the sticks) to see Scott pitch. He hit 90mph ONCE and the scouts were talking about it ("I got 90, anybody else get 90?). Brocail's father was interviewed for the article and was quoted as saying that was the first time he had hit 90 and Doug never hit 90 in high school. Doug was a first round draft pick (though out of JC).

The point is that you only have to go back to 1990 to see a time where hitting 90 got a lot of excitement. Now, 90 is quite common. This has even increased in the past 3-4 years. Two years ago, my son dreamed of hitting 90 - that was his goal. Only now, that he gets there, the goal posts get moved! Now 92-95 becomes what guys are shooting for. Training is so much better and our knowledge of mechanics is so much better today than just 5-10 years ago. When you look at the kind of work they're doing at places like Driveline, and you look at how little we still know, you really have to wonder where the ceiling will eventually settle.

According to study by Dr. Glenn Fleisig on cadaver we may be at the absolute max for what the ligaments of the human arm can withstand regarding maximum torque when throwing a baseball given current genetics. Therefore the spike in injury. So many more are now living at the edge of peak velocity.

Great feedback.

So I should not necessarily trust the gun in the park.
The game was great BTW. Competitive. Both starters were effective and fun to watch.

One other point to remember at this point in the year velocity may be down for some pitchers as the log significant innings. You'll see guys in regionals and super regionals with lower velocity just because they have thrown a lot of innings and may be a bit fatigued at that point in the season.

I think some folks get things mixed up at times.  I read on here, don't waste your time until you can throw high 80s or 90+.  Truth is it might be even more important to get in front of DI college coaches if you throw 85-86.

All 90 mph pitchers are not equal... Far from it in fact.  Some 85-86 pitchers are actually bette than some 90 mph pitchers.  Surely most people have seen this before.  Here is the issue... a college recruiter can see a pitcher one time throwing 92-93 and that is enough to initiate the recruiting process.  The same recruiter could see a pitcher dominate at 85-86 and get interested.  He needs to see that pitcher again just to make sure he didn't see him the first time on his best day.  He will want to see him face the best possible competition to find out how he does.  Now if that mid 80s pitcher stays away, just competes locally, chances are almost zero that he will get any DI interest throwing mid 80s.  Then again if he were throwing mid 90s that becomes very obvious even to the casual fan.  Word starts to travel like wild fire.  People like us want him to attend events and as soon as he does everyone wants him and the MLB scouts make plans.

The mid 80s guy that can really pitch won't get that initial attention,  but it is very important if he can create interest whether it involves projection or current ability.  Yes he will need to be seen again and maybe yet again to convince college recruiters.  But it is that first time creating interest and showing ability that is so very important.

When you see mid to upper 80s pitchers at DI programs, they came from somewhere.  It's not that all mid 80s pitchers are the same.  Of course velocity is the #1 attention getter.  Yet any evaluator knows there is much more that counts.  It's just that the guy without higher velocity needs to provide more proof that he is one of the better of the thousands of mid 80s pitchers out there.

BTW, we have seen stadium guns that were 5-6 mph off.  But when there is Trackman and lots of stalkers around there isn't any mistakes.  I used to have one of the old Decatur Ray guns where 84 would be rare and equal to 90 on the new stalkers.  It isn't the radar guns, pitchers really are throwing much harder these days.

BTW, don't know what, if anything, it means, but it appears that TJ surgeries actually decreased last year.   

PGStaff posted:

I think some folks get things mixed up at times.  I read on here, don't waste your time until you can throw high 80s or 90+.  Truth is it might be even more important to get in front of DI college coaches if you throw 85-86.

All 90 mph pitchers are not equal... Far from it in fact.  Some 85-86 pitchers are actually bette than some 90 mph pitchers.  Surely most people have seen this before.  Here is the issue... a college recruiter can see a pitcher one time throwing 92-93 and that is enough to initiate the recruiting process.  The same recruiter could see a pitcher dominate at 85-86 and get interested.  He needs to see that pitcher again just to make sure he didn't see him the first time on his best day.  He will want to see him face the best possible competition to find out how he does.  Now if that mid 80s pitcher stays away, just competes locally, chances are almost zero that he will get any DI interest throwing mid 80s.  Then again if he were throwing mid 90s that becomes very obvious even to the casual fan.  Word starts to travel like wild fire.  People like us want him to attend events and as soon as he does everyone wants him and the MLB scouts make plans.

The mid 80s guy that can really pitch won't get that initial attention,  but it is very important if he can create interest whether it involves projection or current ability.  Yes he will need to be seen again and maybe yet again to convince college recruiters.  But it is that first time creating interest and showing ability that is so very important.

When you see mid to upper 80s pitchers at DI programs, they came from somewhere.  It's not that all mid 80s pitchers are the same.  Of course velocity is the #1 attention getter.  Yet any evaluator knows there is much more that counts.  It's just that the guy without higher velocity needs to provide more proof that he is one of the better of the thousands of mid 80s pitchers out there.

BTW, we have seen stadium guns that were 5-6 mph off.  But when there is Trackman and lots of stalkers around there isn't any mistakes.  I used to have one of the old Decatur Ray guns where 84 would be rare and equal to 90 on the new stalkers.  It isn't the radar guns, pitchers really are throwing much harder these days.

BTW, don't know what, if anything, it means, but it appears that TJ surgeries actually decreased last year.   

Yeah, I don't buy into the idea that there is some "epidemic" or that arm injuries are at an all time high nor do I believe we are reaching the limit of velocity based on ucl strength. In fact, I tend to suspect the opposite might be true. We can better prepare pitchers to withstand higher velocities physically, we do a much, much, much better job of helping them recover, and we treat arm injuries quicker and more proficiently than ever. I bet if you could have done MRI's on pitchers throwing between 1920 and 1960, you would have found a HIGH incidence rate of torn ucl's - they just pitched through them until they couldn't throw anymore.

Like PG said, some guys lose velocity in college.  But it's not always due to trying to pitch smarter.  Some pitchers lose velocity after velocity training or just weight training.  They do gain stamina, command and movement so it's worth it regardless of velocity change.  

So much truth in this thread. I have always been frustrated by a few of the D1's in my state. They do the same thing year after year and end up with the same results and never change. First of all UNC, ECU, NCSU are going to get the in state stud arms. Those guys that can really throw it but can also pitch. Then there is that group that can really throw it but can't pitch a lick. Guess who loads up on these guys? The same schools that are sub 500 year after year. Instead of getting those in state studs who are low to mid 80's who can really pitch they somehow feel they have to get the top velo guys that are left. These kids end up out of state or at JUCO D2 programs in state. And many times by the time they are JRs and Srs they have developed into low 90's guys who can pitch at any level while the bottom feeder D1's in state continue to cycle through harder throwers who can't pitch.

I will take a kid at 85 who can flat out pitch any day of the week over a guy that can throw much harder who can't pitch. It's not even a contest. Somehow some of these programs think they can take a 18 year old kid who can't pitch and teach him how to pitch. It can happen. But what is more likely to happen? A kid can flat out pitch who is 18 in the mid 80's develops more velo over the course of his college career. Or a kid who can't pitch who throws harder is going to develop the ability to actually pitch while in college? And by the way the kid who can actually pitch is going to get opportunities to pitch. The kid who can't will be limited in opportunities and suffer confidence issues, etc.

UNC doesn't need an 85 guy who can pitch. They have multiple 89-93 guys who can pitch and weekend guys who are studs. But I'm not complaining anymore. My son is making a living getting those mid 80 rhp and low 80 lhp who can pitch at his school. Yes I want 95 with command. But if I can't get it give me 85 with command over 90-95 who can't pitch. All day long.

roothog66 posted:

PGStaff posted:

I think some folks get things mixed up at times.  I read on here, don't waste your time until you can throw high 80s or 90+.  Truth is it might be even more important to get in front of DI college coaches if you throw 85-86.

All 90 mph pitchers are not equal... Far from it in fact.  Some 85-86 pitchers are actually bette than some 90 mph pitchers.  Surely most people have seen this before.  Here is the issue... a college recruiter can see a pitcher one time throwing 92-93 and that is enough to initiate the recruiting process.  The same recruiter could see a pitcher dominate at 85-86 and get interested.  He needs to see that pitcher again just to make sure he didn't see him the first time on his best day.  He will want to see him face the best possible competition to find out how he does.  Now if that mid 80s pitcher stays away, just competes locally, chances are almost zero that he will get any DI interest throwing mid 80s.  Then again if he were throwing mid 90s that becomes very obvious even to the casual fan.  Word starts to travel like wild fire.  People like us want him to attend events and as soon as he does everyone wants him and the MLB scouts make plans.

The mid 80s guy that can really pitch won't get that initial attention,  but it is very important if he can create interest whether it involves projection or current ability.  Yes he will need to be seen again and maybe yet again to convince college recruiters.  But it is that first time creating interest and showing ability that is so very important.

When you see mid to upper 80s pitchers at DI programs, they came from somewhere.  It's not that all mid 80s pitchers are the same.  Of course velocity is the #1 attention getter.  Yet any evaluator knows there is much more that counts.  It's just that the guy without higher velocity needs to provide more proof that he is one of the better of the thousands of mid 80s pitchers out there.

BTW, we have seen stadium guns that were 5-6 mph off.  But when there is Trackman and lots of stalkers around there isn't any mistakes.  I used to have one of the old Decatur Ray guns where 84 would be rare and equal to 90 on the new stalkers.  It isn't the radar guns, pitchers really are throwing much harder these days.

BTW, don't know what, if anything, it means, but it appears that TJ surgeries actually decreased last year.   

Yeah, I don't buy into the idea that there is some "epidemic" or that arm injuries are at an all time high nor do I believe we are reaching the limit of velocity based on ucl strength. In fact, I tend to suspect the opposite might be true. We can better prepare pitchers to withstand higher velocities physically, we do a much, much, much better job of helping them recover, and we treat arm injuries quicker and more proficiently than ever. I bet if you could have done MRI's on pitchers throwing between 1920 and 1960, you would have found a HIGH incidence rate of torn ucl's - they just pitched through them until they couldn't throw anymore.

To suggest that arm injuries are not at an all time high requires the ability to ignore all evidence to the contrary. Perhaps a slight tick down this year as per PG, but even a mild effort at research proves otherwise. It's not even close. Did these injuries happen in the past? Absolutely! Were pitchers throwing per capita with the same velocity as guys today back from 1920-1960? Not even close. More high velocity throwers approaching the max the body will sustain = more injury. Add in overuse, year round baseball at the youth level, & you have guys with high mileage at a young age throwing high velocity with max effort. This problem is not going away any time soon. 

PS: Take a minute to read Fleisig's Cadaver study on the max external rotation the human arm can sustain. In short, he used cadavers so he could snap the tendons & test for the max. Are their freaks who could exceed this? No question. But on average, there is a limit & we are at the edge of it.

roothog66 posted:

I bet if you could have done MRI's on pitchers throwing between 1920 and 1960, you would have found a HIGH incidence rate of torn ucl's - they just pitched through them until they couldn't throw anymore.

 I immediately think of this when I hear someone comment that "pitch counts are stupid, they didn't have pitch counts in the old days and no one's arm ever got hurt".

roothog66 posted:

PGStaff posted:

I think some folks get things mixed up at times.  I read on here, don't waste your time until you can throw high 80s or 90+.  Truth is it might be even more important to get in front of DI college coaches if you throw 85-86.

All 90 mph pitchers are not equal... Far from it in fact.  Some 85-86 pitchers are actually bette than some 90 mph pitchers.  Surely most people have seen this before.  Here is the issue... a college recruiter can see a pitcher one time throwing 92-93 and that is enough to initiate the recruiting process.  The same recruiter could see a pitcher dominate at 85-86 and get interested.  He needs to see that pitcher again just to make sure he didn't see him the first time on his best day.  He will want to see him face the best possible competition to find out how he does.  Now if that mid 80s pitcher stays away, just competes locally, chances are almost zero that he will get any DI interest throwing mid 80s.  Then again if he were throwing mid 90s that becomes very obvious even to the casual fan.  Word starts to travel like wild fire.  People like us want him to attend events and as soon as he does everyone wants him and the MLB scouts make plans.

The mid 80s guy that can really pitch won't get that initial attention,  but it is very important if he can create interest whether it involves projection or current ability.  Yes he will need to be seen again and maybe yet again to convince college recruiters.  But it is that first time creating interest and showing ability that is so very important.

When you see mid to upper 80s pitchers at DI programs, they came from somewhere.  It's not that all mid 80s pitchers are the same.  Of course velocity is the #1 attention getter.  Yet any evaluator knows there is much more that counts.  It's just that the guy without higher velocity needs to provide more proof that he is one of the better of the thousands of mid 80s pitchers out there.

BTW, we have seen stadium guns that were 5-6 mph off.  But when there is Trackman and lots of stalkers around there isn't any mistakes.  I used to have one of the old Decatur Ray guns where 84 would be rare and equal to 90 on the new stalkers.  It isn't the radar guns, pitchers really are throwing much harder these days.

BTW, don't know what, if anything, it means, but it appears that TJ surgeries actually decreased last year.   

Yeah, I don't buy into the idea that there is some "epidemic" or that arm injuries are at an all time high nor do I believe we are reaching the limit of velocity based on ucl strength. In fact, I tend to suspect the opposite might be true. We can better prepare pitchers to withstand higher velocities physically, we do a much, much, much better job of helping them recover, and we treat arm injuries quicker and more proficiently than ever. I bet if you could have done MRI's on pitchers throwing between 1920 and 1960, you would have found a HIGH incidence rate of torn ucl's - they just pitched through them until they couldn't throw anymore.

You should look at Mississippi State pitching staff, I think they have 10 pithchers on the DL with TJ surgery.

CmassRHPDad posted:

Great feedback.

So I should not necessarily trust the gun in the park.
The game was great BTW. Competitive. Both starters were effective and fun to watch.

It's hard to say, if it was accurate or not.  I always look for scouts in the stands, or teams gunning their own pitchers.  If they are, I glance over and compare velo's.  If it is the same on several pitches, then I know I can trust the scoreboard.  If it is a couple of mph different either way, I make a mental note and adjust.

With that said, there still could be other factors.  Type of pitches thrown, or the pitcher may be more effective not throwing at max effort.

Steve A. posted:

roothog66 posted:

PGStaff posted:

I think some folks get things mixed up at times.  I read on here, don't waste your time until you can throw high 80s or 90+.  Truth is it might be even more important to get in front of DI college coaches if you throw 85-86.

All 90 mph pitchers are not equal... Far from it in fact.  Some 85-86 pitchers are actually bette than some 90 mph pitchers.  Surely most people have seen this before.  Here is the issue... a college recruiter can see a pitcher one time throwing 92-93 and that is enough to initiate the recruiting process.  The same recruiter could see a pitcher dominate at 85-86 and get interested.  He needs to see that pitcher again just to make sure he didn't see him the first time on his best day.  He will want to see him face the best possible competition to find out how he does.  Now if that mid 80s pitcher stays away, just competes locally, chances are almost zero that he will get any DI interest throwing mid 80s.  Then again if he were throwing mid 90s that becomes very obvious even to the casual fan.  Word starts to travel like wild fire.  People like us want him to attend events and as soon as he does everyone wants him and the MLB scouts make plans.

The mid 80s guy that can really pitch won't get that initial attention,  but it is very important if he can create interest whether it involves projection or current ability.  Yes he will need to be seen again and maybe yet again to convince college recruiters.  But it is that first time creating interest and showing ability that is so very important.

When you see mid to upper 80s pitchers at DI programs, they came from somewhere.  It's not that all mid 80s pitchers are the same.  Of course velocity is the #1 attention getter.  Yet any evaluator knows there is much more that counts.  It's just that the guy without higher velocity needs to provide more proof that he is one of the better of the thousands of mid 80s pitchers out there.

BTW, we have seen stadium guns that were 5-6 mph off.  But when there is Trackman and lots of stalkers around there isn't any mistakes.  I used to have one of the old Decatur Ray guns where 84 would be rare and equal to 90 on the new stalkers.  It isn't the radar guns, pitchers really are throwing much harder these days.

BTW, don't know what, if anything, it means, but it appears that TJ surgeries actually decreased last year.   

Yeah, I don't buy into the idea that there is some "epidemic" or that arm injuries are at an all time high nor do I believe we are reaching the limit of velocity based on ucl strength. In fact, I tend to suspect the opposite might be true. We can better prepare pitchers to withstand higher velocities physically, we do a much, much, much better job of helping them recover, and we treat arm injuries quicker and more proficiently than ever. I bet if you could have done MRI's on pitchers throwing between 1920 and 1960, you would have found a HIGH incidence rate of torn ucl's - they just pitched through them until they couldn't throw anymore.

To suggest that arm injuries are not at an all time high requires the ability to ignore all evidence to the contrary. Perhaps a slight tick down this year as per PG, but even a mild effort at research proves otherwise. It's not even close. Did these injuries happen in the past? Absolutely! Were pitchers throwing per capita with the same velocity as guys today back from 1920-1960? Not even close. More high velocity throwers approaching the max the body will sustain = more injury. Add in overuse, year round baseball at the youth level, & you have guys with high mileage at a young age throwing high velocity with max effort. This problem is not going away any time soon. 

PS: Take a minute to read Fleisig's Cadaver study on the max external rotation the human arm can sustain. In short, he used cadavers so he could snap the tendons & test for the max. Are their freaks who could exceed this? No question. But on average, there is a limit & we are at the edge of it.

1) There is a common logic problem. Using the number of TJ surgeries as proof for the proposition that injuries is up is logically flawed. An increase in the number of TJ surgeries is proof that there have been more TJ surgeries and that's all it proves. I'll give you an example. If you looked at the numbers on artificial heart surgeries and compared that number to ten years ago and then used that logic to argue that heart disease is up 1,000% it would be ridiculous. It's only a stat that shows artificial hearts are used more often and that the surgery is more prevalent.

The same applies to TJ surgery - it is simply used more than in the past. It's also used earlier and on younger subjects. Ten to fifteen years ago,TJ surgery would have been a rare recommendation for a 15 or 16yo. Today, the surgery is better and performed by far more orthopedic surgeons than in the past. Additionally, there has been a real change in how we treat young pitchers today. When I was a kid (or even just a decade ago) if your elbow blew out, it blew out. You might have taken your kid to a general practitioner if he tore his ucl, but most likely wouldn't have seen a specialist and very, very rarely would surgery been on the table. As a matter of fact, the kid would probably just put ice on it and pitch with the pain until he couldn't pitch anymore. This has been true for 99% of the history of baseball. TJ surgery is more and more an option for younger and younger pitchers.

Even at the mlb level, it is only in recent years that TJ surgery became this common. Teams pay tons of money, so they look to surgery much earlier in the process than ever before. To use an increase in the number of surgeries as proof that injuries are on the rise is a serious logical flaw. No one ever talks about another stat, though. Cumulative days on the MLB DL list due to arm injuries has steadily decreased for years. For the same reason, this stat doesn't logically indicate a decrease in arm injuries. The reason is more likely that teams don't play around for months trying to make a blown arm heal before going the surgery route and TJ surgery itself, and the associated rehab programs, have advanced to the point of decreasing recovery time.

I am not saying that there is not an increase in arm injuries. I'm just saying that the only number people throw around to support that contention is the number of TJ surgeries and this cannot logically be used to support such an argument. In fact, I am saying that all of the science, surgery and physiological work done in this area in the past few years makes pitching safer than ever. Today, we don't ignore injuries like we did in the past. Especially with young pitchers, if there is a problem, we seek help early in the process. We treat young pitchers with far more care and preparation than ever before and this is a very good thing.

I have read Fleisig's work. You won't find any study out there I haven't read. You have to understand, though, that his work on cadavers dealt only with the tendon strength and did not (could not) consider the surrounding muscle and bone structure strength. IN fact his work pretty much showed that the ucl should snap with the force exhibited by an 84mph fastball. You cannot increase the strength of ligaments and tendons, but you surely can increase the ability to protect the ucl from stress by increasing the strength of the muscle groups surrounding it. 

Root, awesome information & thanks for sharing. Very valid & well thought analysis. As usual, the answers to these types of questions are often complex & multi dimensional. The motive, for me & I'm sure most others in this, is to attempt to stir up thought & share ideas on how some of these types of injuries can be avoided & allow these "kids" to prolong the joy of competing on this great game. 

Great post Root. Look back when I played ton's of guys I played with had arms that hurt. Shoulder's hurt them, ached. Elbows hurt them as well. What did we all do? No one went to the Doctor. You rubbed Ben Gay on it or Red Hot and you played on. Many simply gave it up. It was considered part of the price of playing the game. The same could be said for concussions in football. You got your bell rung get back in there. Or you got your bell rung just take a few days off from practice. Back then there was little to no pre season prep for the next sport. There was little to no knowledge given for proper mechanics and proper training. That's just how YOU throw. This is how I throw. Today when a kid develops a sore arm he seeks treatment. Today kids have training and medical treatment readily available. Of course there are more TJ surgeries for all the reasons Root mentioned.

You are not going to stop kids from pushing the envelope. You are not going to be able to regulate the attempt to be the very best you can be. There are pitch counts now in LL and HS. There is a better understanding of overuse, proper training and proper development than there has ever been. And there is better reporting of arm injuries as well. What's more dangerous throwing too much or not throwing enough and then trying to throw too much? How much is too much? Do you tell an 8th grader he shouldn't try and throw hard he might hurt his arm? In order to achieve something great you must risk something as well. There will always be risk when there is something great to be achieved. Limit the risk as much as possible without hindering the opportunity to achieve the goals intended. Of course you can assure yourself of never having a baseball related arm injury. Simply don't play. Your right it's not going away. It will evolve into what it evolves into. That's just the way it is.  

I will toss one more log on the fire here suggesting a case of increased injury. (Past 30 years) This from my own experience.  I pitched in HS. I pitched 4 years of Division 1 ending in 1980's. I did not know ANYONE, including pitchers on opposing teams, throughout my HS & College Career, who injured their arm & stopped pitching completely & / or had TJS. Not one person. Pitched for 7 years in MILB. I can recall less than a handful of guys who shut it down or suffered a traumatic arm injury. Ending in the 90's.

We, collectively, definitely threw LESS, overall, than todays pitchers at the youth levels in particular. There was less pitching (seasonal), no indoor training, no "travel" teams, no velocity camps & no extreme long toss. We definitely threw with less velocity at the HS level & college level, than todays pitchers. In MILB in the early / mid 90's if you were 95+ you were special. There were far fewer traumatic arm injuries. It was relatively uncommon. I'm sorry guys, this is simply a fact. All the Ben Gay in the world is not going to get you through a season at AA with a shredded UCL.

Today's training is vastly superior. The knowledge of mechanics is superior & the understanding of treatment, surgery & rehab are far superior. The velocity is greater, the "special" arms have higher mileage than ever before in the history of the game due to the travel ball & showcase circuit. Admit it or not, Velo is sexy & these guys know they have to light up the gun so it can become about Max Effort, which is just a killer.

I love Perfect Game. I love the site, I love the videos, the write ups & my kid has played & will play in PG events, hopefully for years to come. I have learned a TON from PG (poster "PG Staff" & the site). I would bet I have looked at every posted video of virtually all HS pitchers on PG in the last 7-10 years who have been 95+. Then I look at how they end up in relation to success in Pro Ball & injury. You will find many just incredible success stories. You will also find an absolute boatload of shut downs, arm injuries & TJS's that stretches on & on. Please do not misunderstand me here. This is not a criticism of anyone or anything, really. The facts are indisputable: Above average & elite velocity pitchers, starting at the youth level, are throwing more than ever. They are throwing longer seasons than ever, including Winter months & multiple teams. They are throwing at higher velocity than ever. They are being injured more than ever as a result. This is not a very hard trail to follow. 

roothog66 posted:

 

I have read Fleisig's work. You won't find any study out there I haven't read. You have to understand, though, that his work on cadavers dealt only with the tendon strength and did not (could not) consider the surrounding muscle and bone structure strength. IN fact his work pretty much showed that the ucl should snap with the force exhibited by an 84mph fastball. You cannot increase the strength of ligaments and tendons, but you surely can increase the ability to protect the ucl from stress by increasing the strength of the muscle groups surrounding it. 

This is why I am very excited to continue developing the forward dynamics simulation that was pioneered by Dr. James Buffi. It may be possible to quantify those variables in elite pitchers for the first time ever.

STEVE A,

To be clear I'm not debating what you have said.  But as you might imagine this is not a topic I take lightly.  However I do have some opinions which you may or may not agree with.

I have done the research regarding PG and TJ surgery.  I've stated it before and I still don't know what it means.,

Over the past decade or more we have averaged over 80% of all players drafted into professional baseball.  A year or so ago, I secured a list of every professional pitcher that has had TJ surgery;  I expected to see somewhere around 80+% seeing that was the percentage that attended PG events. I was hoping I wouldn't find out that something like 95% of the TJ list had attended a PG event. 

I checked every name on the TJ list against the PG database of players and to my surprise around 60% of those professionals that had TJ surgery had attended a PG event.  60% is a large number for sure, but it should have been 80% or more. So if 80+% of all those drafted attended PG events and that represented around 60% of the TJ surgeries.  That means some 40% of all those TJ surgeries came from less than 20% of all pitchers that never attended a PG event.

As mentioned earlier I don't know what all of that means.  I think what it might mean is there is a lot of abuse going on out there and we have addressed arm abuse since the very beginning.  I have seen abuse many times, I have seen one of the worst ever in the Legion World Series.  I've seen it in HS, college, and youth baseball.  There's no doubt that TJ surgery is here to stay.  Modern medical science and it is great that it is available.  Still it sure isn't anything to take lightly.  Of course arm care is most important.  Many arms can be saved through education.

The one survey that hasn't been done still baffles me.  It's fairly easy to find what those that have had TJ surgery did before their injury.  Don't we want to know what guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, and many others that have remained healthy did before turning pro.  I mean maybe we might gather some important info by surveying all professional pitchers rather than just those that need TJ surgery.  But now days if the questions are things like did you play travel baseball?  The answer will almost always be yes.  Yes for those that needed TJ surgery and those that didn't.  Those that didn't play travel ball, are they all healthy?  Wouldn't we want to know?

Anyway, this is a baseball issue.  If there is any blame it needs to be shared by everyone involved in baseball and that does include us.  I just know for a fact that the more abusive use of pitchers is not happening at PG events.  Maybe you don't know, but I personally have spent way too much time on this subject over the past couple years.  That include meetings with many people including the commissioners office.  We are very much involved and will continue looking for answers and possible solutions.  Pitch Smart is a good start.

The one thing that isn't likely to change is kids throwing hard.  Maybe when the decision makers decide it doesn't have any value.  There is no doubt that the best arms are more likely to be injured for several reasons,  No doubt there is some risk and reward involved.

I think genetics plays a factor in ways that we cannot yet grasp.   Maybe if you had two identical twins, one who pitched year round as a kid, another who utilized proper arm care & rest, you could draw some insight as to causation....but it would still only apply to that one family small sample

Someone should do a study of every MLB player who has had a kid who became an MLB player.   I bet the TJ rate is lower with the sons of former MLB players.  Then do a study of every pro player MiLB/Indy Leagues who had a kid who turned pro.  I bet the TJ rate with those sons of former MiLB/Indy pros is higher than the sons of MLB players, but lower than the general public.

Why?  Genetics

PGStaff posted:

The one survey that hasn't been done still baffles me.  It's fairly easy to find what those that have had TJ surgery did before their injury.  Don't we want to know what guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, and many others that have remained healthy did before turning pro.  I mean maybe we might gather some important info by surveying all professional pitchers rather than just those that need TJ surgery.  But now days if the questions are things like did you play travel baseball?  The answer will almost always be yes.  Yes for those that needed TJ surgery and those that didn't.  Those that didn't play travel ball, are they all healthy?  Wouldn't we want to know?

I would like to see a study to determine a leading indicator (a biomechanical marker, or correlation with bone density, etc.) for predictive/risk evaluation purposes as opposed to lagging indicators (torn UCL, time for TJ surgery).  Maybe in the future we can cater arm care protocols and pitch counts to the individual based on their risk factors, with measurable metrics to show how effective it is in reducing UCL injuries.

But I'm just a one man strength training shop, I don't have the tools or resources to make it happen.  And there are a lot of people much smarter than me working on a solution.

3and2Fastball posted:

I think genetics plays a factor in ways that we cannot yet grasp.   Maybe if you had two identical twins, one who pitched year round as a kid, another who utilized proper arm care & rest, you could draw some insight as to causation....but it would still only apply to that one family small sample

Someone should do a study of every MLB player who has had a kid who became an MLB player.   I bet the TJ rate is lower with the sons of former MLB players.  Then do a study of every pro player MiLB/Indy Leagues who had a kid who turned pro.  I bet the TJ rate with those sons of former MiLB/Indy pros is higher than the sons of MLB players, but lower than the general public.

Why?  Genetics

I think this is another factor that has changed over time. No one can seriously argue that there aren't certain pitcher better genetically prepared both to pitch harder and to withstand those velocities and stresses. I think this is why we see so many more guys throwing at high velocity. A couple of decades ago, abusive pitch counts, poor training and poor mechanics took out more pitchers at a younger age. We all remember the kids from high school or even college who threw gas, but "blew out their arms, otherwise they'd have made it to the Show." 

I think there was a genetic factor that weeded out the less genetically inclined at an early stage. Those guys broke down in high school or, at least, by college. The genetically stronger guys like the Nolan Ryans of the world were left standing. This also made more room at the top for guys who didn't throw as hard, but were genetically gifted enough to withstand the early career stresses on the arm. 

Regardless of what you read, my experience with showcases and high level travel ball is that pitchers are not over pitched. Generally, at the higher levels, pitching staffs are large and pitchers tend to pitch shorter stints and get more rest. Look at your typical showcase. A pitcher will take the mound for two or three innings that are limited by the number of batters. Usually, that will be about it for the week. Maybe at a bigger tourney, like WWBA, they'll pitch twice in a seven or eight day period, but under the guidelines of Pitch Smart. Where I do see over pitching and high pitch count loads is at lower levels of travel ball - American Legion, Babe Ruth, etc. where the staffs are smaller and not as talented; where the stud pitcher goes 120 pitches and then is paraded out their as soon as possible for the next outing. So, my point is that I think many Pitchers who can throw hard and twenty years ago would have broken down not long out of high school (or before), now, because of the way we handle pitchers today, last years longer than before. They still break down, but it happens in their third year of MLB experience instead of  in high school or college.

PGStaff posted:

STEVE A,

To be clear I'm not debating what you have said.  But as you might imagine this is not a topic I take lightly.  However I do have some opinions which you may or may not agree with.

I have done the research regarding PG and TJ surgery.  I've stated it before and I still don't know what it means.,

Over the past decade or more we have averaged over 80% of all players drafted into professional baseball.  A year or so ago, I secured a list of every professional pitcher that has had TJ surgery;  I expected to see somewhere around 80+% seeing that was the percentage that attended PG events. I was hoping I wouldn't find out that something like 95% of the TJ list had attended a PG event. 

I checked every name on the TJ list against the PG database of players and to my surprise around 60% of those professionals that had TJ surgery had attended a PG event.  60% is a large number for sure, but it should have been 80% or more. So if 80+% of all those drafted attended PG events and that represented around 60% of the TJ surgeries.  That means some 40% of all those TJ surgeries came from less than 20% of all pitchers that never attended a PG event.

As mentioned earlier I don't know what all of that means.  I think what it might mean is there is a lot of abuse going on out there and we have addressed arm abuse since the very beginning.  I have seen abuse many times, I have seen one of the worst ever in the Legion World Series.  I've seen it in HS, college, and youth baseball.  There's no doubt that TJ surgery is here to stay.  Modern medical science and it is great that it is available.  Still it sure isn't anything to take lightly.  Of course arm care is most important.  Many arms can be saved through education.

The one survey that hasn't been done still baffles me.  It's fairly easy to find what those that have had TJ surgery did before their injury.  Don't we want to know what guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, and many others that have remained healthy did before turning pro.  I mean maybe we might gather some important info by surveying all professional pitchers rather than just those that need TJ surgery.  But now days if the questions are things like did you play travel baseball?  The answer will almost always be yes.  Yes for those that needed TJ surgery and those that didn't.  Those that didn't play travel ball, are they all healthy?  Wouldn't we want to know?

Anyway, this is a baseball issue.  If there is any blame it needs to be shared by everyone involved in baseball and that does include us.  I just know for a fact that the more abusive use of pitchers is not happening at PG events.  Maybe you don't know, but I personally have spent way too much time on this subject over the past couple years.  That include meetings with many people including the commissioners office.  We are very much involved and will continue looking for answers and possible solutions.  Pitch Smart is a good start.

The one thing that isn't likely to change is kids throwing hard.  Maybe when the decision makers decide it doesn't have any value.  There is no doubt that the best arms are more likely to be injured for several reasons,  No doubt there is some risk and reward involved.

PG: Appreciate the response & the information! I'm not surprised at all. It is a jungle out there with the travel ball quest to win at the expense of arms. To be clear, I only reference PG as I feel it is by far the best resource available to study the historical video & velocity evidence for these players as they develop. I like to look back at the earliest velo & height/ weight info of the high velocity guys & compare at graduation & see how they projected back when they were 14 or so & how they got there. How do the mechanics look? What is the arm angle? How many events did they attend? Did they attend Winter events & throw at high velo? How did their body develop?

For example, this is something I searched recently: I went in & did a top 10 velocity search for pitchers in their 8th grade year who attended a PG event. So for 2016 graduation, you search 2016 grad competing in 2012 year event top velocity. You can do this back for several years & also see the recent spike in velo for this age. The results are interesting. Very few, on percentage,  of your top 10 velocity pitchers at 14 years old end up being the top velocity guys at graduation. Why? Do they peak early? Do they get injured? Are many of these guys not attending events? Are they just developed physically earlier? (Definite yes here if you look at H/W on average) Are there exceptions? Yes, many! What does this tell me? I'm not sure but I suspect that its ok to not rush the velo & let it come as the body develops.   

What's missing is everything else. What is the training routine? How much are they throwing with travel / school etc? Are they pitching on multiple teams?

PG only provides a menu of opportunity & a tremendous resource. There is no possible way for PG, or any other venue, to police the volume of arm use away from its events or to prevent someone from competing in a PG event when they should not. That is on the parents & coach(s).

Lastly, let me add this on behalf of myself & I'm sure many others out there. Thank you for your contributions & participation in this site. The information & opinion you add is an invaluable resource & greatly appreciated.

Matt Reiland posted:

PGStaff posted:

The one survey that hasn't been done still baffles me.  It's fairly easy to find what those that have had TJ surgery did before their injury.  Don't we want to know what guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, and many others that have remained healthy did before turning pro.  I mean maybe we might gather some important info by surveying all professional pitchers rather than just those that need TJ surgery.  But now days if the questions are things like did you play travel baseball?  The answer will almost always be yes.  Yes for those that needed TJ surgery and those that didn't.  Those that didn't play travel ball, are they all healthy?  Wouldn't we want to know?

I would like to see a study to determine a leading indicator (a biomechanical marker, or correlation with bone density, etc.) for predictive/risk evaluation purposes as opposed to lagging indicators (torn UCL, time for TJ surgery).  Maybe in the future we can cater arm care protocols and pitch counts to the individual based on their risk factors, with measurable metrics to show how effective it is in reducing UCL injuries.

But I'm just a one man strength training shop, I don't have the tools or resources to make it happen.  And there are a lot of people much smarter than me working on a solution.

There is definitely something to this. In fact, there are a lot of people in the field that are starting to balk at the current ways the medical profession handles recovery from injury and surgeries. They are trying to move away from preconceived notions and artificial timelines and onward to more personalized plans.

Steve A. posted:

PGStaff posted:

STEVE A,

To be clear I'm not debating what you have said.  But as you might imagine this is not a topic I take lightly.  However I do have some opinions which you may or may not agree with.

I have done the research regarding PG and TJ surgery.  I've stated it before and I still don't know what it means.,

Over the past decade or more we have averaged over 80% of all players drafted into professional baseball.  A year or so ago, I secured a list of every professional pitcher that has had TJ surgery;  I expected to see somewhere around 80+% seeing that was the percentage that attended PG events. I was hoping I wouldn't find out that something like 95% of the TJ list had attended a PG event. 

I checked every name on the TJ list against the PG database of players and to my surprise around 60% of those professionals that had TJ surgery had attended a PG event.  60% is a large number for sure, but it should have been 80% or more. So if 80+% of all those drafted attended PG events and that represented around 60% of the TJ surgeries.  That means some 40% of all those TJ surgeries came from less than 20% of all pitchers that never attended a PG event.

As mentioned earlier I don't know what all of that means.  I think what it might mean is there is a lot of abuse going on out there and we have addressed arm abuse since the very beginning.  I have seen abuse many times, I have seen one of the worst ever in the Legion World Series.  I've seen it in HS, college, and youth baseball.  There's no doubt that TJ surgery is here to stay.  Modern medical science and it is great that it is available.  Still it sure isn't anything to take lightly.  Of course arm care is most important.  Many arms can be saved through education.

The one survey that hasn't been done still baffles me.  It's fairly easy to find what those that have had TJ surgery did before their injury.  Don't we want to know what guys like Kershaw, Bumgarner, Greinke, and many others that have remained healthy did before turning pro.  I mean maybe we might gather some important info by surveying all professional pitchers rather than just those that need TJ surgery.  But now days if the questions are things like did you play travel baseball?  The answer will almost always be yes.  Yes for those that needed TJ surgery and those that didn't.  Those that didn't play travel ball, are they all healthy?  Wouldn't we want to know?

Anyway, this is a baseball issue.  If there is any blame it needs to be shared by everyone involved in baseball and that does include us.  I just know for a fact that the more abusive use of pitchers is not happening at PG events.  Maybe you don't know, but I personally have spent way too much time on this subject over the past couple years.  That include meetings with many people including the commissioners office.  We are very much involved and will continue looking for answers and possible solutions.  Pitch Smart is a good start.

The one thing that isn't likely to change is kids throwing hard.  Maybe when the decision makers decide it doesn't have any value.  There is no doubt that the best arms are more likely to be injured for several reasons,  No doubt there is some risk and reward involved.

PG: Appreciate the response & the information! I'm not surprised at all. It is a jungle out there with the travel ball quest to win at the expense of arms. To be clear, I only reference PG as I feel it is by far the best resource available to study the historical video & velocity evidence for these players as they develop. I like to look back at the earliest velo & height/ weight info of the high velocity guys & compare at graduation & see how they projected back when they were 14 or so & how they got there. How do the mechanics look? What is the arm angle? How many events did they attend? Did they attend Winter events & throw at high velo? How did their body develop?

For example, this is something I searched recently: I went in & did a top 10 velocity search for pitchers in their 8th grade year who attended a PG event. So for 2016 graduation, you search 2016 grad competing in 2012 year event top velocity. You can do this back for several years & also see the recent spike in velo for this age. The results are interesting. Very few, on percentage,  of your top 10 velocity pitchers at 14 years old end up being the top velocity guys at graduation. Why? Do they peak early? Do they get injured? Are many of these guys not attending events? Are they just developed physically earlier? (Definite yes here if you look at H/W on average) Are there exceptions? Yes, many! What does this tell me? I'm not sure but I suspect that its ok to not rush the velo & let it come as the body develops.   

What's missing is everything else. What is the training routine? How much are they throwing with travel / school etc? Are they pitching on multiple teams?

PG only provides a menu of opportunity & a tremendous resource. There is no possible way for PG, or any other venue, to police the volume of arm use away from its events or to prevent someone from competing in a PG event when they should not. That is on the parents & coach(s).

Lastly, let me add this on behalf of myself & I'm sure many others out there. Thank you for your contributions & participation in this site. The information & opinion you add is an invaluable resource & greatly appreciated.

One problem is that your research group is fairly limited. The difference between top 10 and top 25, for example isn't so great that it is not surprising that the top ten would change a lot. A better grouping would to take the top 20 and see how many are still in the top 100. The difference between No. 25 in velocity in one given year and number 100 is probably less than 2.5 mph. Just a guess.

My error. I actually did top 25. The search for top 25 is free & its under Event Records at bottom of Home Page.

I think it is a combination of some ongoing arm abuse coupled with the genetics/higher velocity pitching.  Throw in what is probably some enhanced diagnostics and parents utilizing all available diagnostics, the numbers go up.  As one person pointed out some time ago, a UCL injury is not life threatening nor is it really life altering outside of baseball. - so most injury doesn't really rise to the level of "abuse" and more is probably related to parents/kids getting a little too fanatical chasing the dream.  This season, I wanted my kid throwing upwards of 100 pitches each start.  He'll play at the next level, but probably not the next, so it is sort of live out the dream as long as you can and do what you feel comfortable doing in extending your career (within reason).  Throwing some 12yo multiple times over the weekend to win some ring is abuse.  Leaning on a college pitcher who is probably not going to make any real money at the next level is more along the lines of competing and letting that kid have an opportunity to excel.

On the genetics side, I use genetics as I believe (my opinion) that many elite pitchers get hurt due to the stress simply catching up to them.  At times, they are their own worst enemy as the build up their legs, core, etc. and fine tune their mechanics to maximize velocity.  Most pitchers have a tendency to put stress on the UCL and as velocity increases, this stress increases.  I am not aware of too many mechanics which both maximize velocity and work towards reducing UCL stress.  Those stop action shots of some pitcher half way through the motion - when you see their forearm flexed backwards at some grotesque angle - are what drives this home for me.  Submariners are often exempt and the guys coming high over the top may be a little safer, but some kids are going to pitch their best with an arm slot that ends up focusing stress on the elbow.  You can avoid abuse, you can limit wear and tear to a degree, but I highly doubt you can eliminate injuries, especially with kids throwing 90+.  Brady Aiken is an example of an elite pitcher who probably had a solid arm care program.  Not 100% sure what caused his injury, but having a smaller UCL from birth probably didn't help.  If he played more video games and ended up only throwing in the upper 80's, he probably would have gone on the have a successful college career with no injury.