Commitment overload and NLI

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

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Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

The kids in your sons class that are ranked a bit higher than him should not be his biggest concern, lol. He will be competing against guys that could be 4 years+ older and experienced than a freshman. Don’t let anyone outwork you. Be humble. Be coachable. And don’t be afraid to compete. 

CatsPop posted:

Just happened to one in our area.  Completed Freshman year, now he's JUCO bound.  Bacdorslider said that this Fall Vandy will have about 43 kids playing ball, which means 8 won't be around come mid-February.

This (over-recruiting) was the subject of a thread last spring in which I called attention to the large number of announced 2018s at a number of prominent D1 schools - including Vanderbilt. During that discussion I was “assured” that at least 10 of  the Vandy commits would sign in the upcoming 2018 draft. I didn’t believe that to be a realistic assumption and it didn’t happen. Now there is a logjam and players will have to leave.  But it’s not just Vandy - this is going on everywhere.  It underscores the importance of seeking the right level in the beginning - because you are going to end up there anyway. My son is a 2018 and he is going to a great JuCo program and I couldn’t be happier for him. He will play for 2 years instead of sit and will also get basic academic class work out of the way. JuCo is a great option for many kids and it doesn’t get the consideration that it should from all of those chasing the D1 holy grail that they aren’t ready for anyway. 

ADBONO  I could not agree more... There are 3 coming to campus in the 2018 class and any or all could have gone in the draft.  Somehow someway  Vandy has to get the number down.   I would guess the fall will decide the fate of a few.  Parents have to understand what they are getting into.  For my first two sons they could have gone to a mid-major and most likely sat the bench, wondered if they were going to get cut etc.  Instead they went to a very good Juco and ended up moving on to the mid-major more prepared and ready to play not just be on the team.   My youngest son  was in a different  spot.  We knew that after the draft , if he did not sign he would start at Vandy this summer taking classes and working out with the trainer.  That's a good head start for him as he is  soph eligible  in 2020.  However he has to produce and earn his time like every other player.  If he had been a late commit to Vandy and maybe did not have the rankings, accolades  and draft attention we would have considered another route for him.  I do know that if anyone can figure out the situation and do what is right for all involved it's TC.

3and2Fastball posted:

It is hard to wrap my mind around the concept of a kid    attending Vanderbilt and that not being in "their best interests" when all or most of their education at that incredible institution is being paid for!!!! 

Are there a lot of kids transferring out of Vandy?

history shows  2-3 a year transfer, flunk out, quit.

adbono posted:

CatsPop posted:

Just happened to one in our area.  Completed Freshman year, now he's JUCO bound.  Bacdorslider said that this Fall Vandy will have about 43 kids playing ball, which means 8 won't be around come mid-February.

JuCo is a great option for many kids and it doesn’t get the consideration that it should from all of those chasing the D1 holy grail that they aren’t ready for anyway. 

My son just spent the weekend at Iowa's All Star series, a four-team tournament featuring the top 64 high school seniors from around the state. Of those, I counted about 10 going to D1 schools — including kids playing collegiate golf, hockey and football. Another group of about 10 were going to D2 (I think one) and D3s. The rest were going to Jucos.

We looked closely at the Juco option and the only thing I would warn is that you need to look at the academics. My son is going into college with about 35 credit hours from dual enrollment and AP credits. Juco might have been good for his baseball, but there was a very limited pool of classes he could have taken.

Thanks for that shock factor. Never realized the list was in ranking.   Just looked to see where mine stood in his class.  In the middle, which is where I thought he would be.  The bottom three in his class have no pics beside their PG profile.  But it is weird because I clicked on it three different times and the players moved in position each time except the top player.  It would concern me if my son was at the bottom or the bottom of several players being recruited for the same position.  There are only two LHP's in his class and he and the other one are fairly even.  I think the good part for them is there are only 4 there currently, and 1 or none coming in,  I believe that is bigger than most think.  When we were going through the recruiting process, we looked at who/how many will you have to compete with just to get on the field.  I know some don't think this is a big deal but it is.

Iowamom23 posted:

adbono posted:

CatsPop posted:

Just happened to one in our area.  Completed Freshman year, now he's JUCO bound.  Bacdorslider said that this Fall Vandy will have about 43 kids playing ball, which means 8 won't be around come mid-February.

JuCo is a great option for many kids and it doesn’t get the consideration that it should from all of those chasing the D1 holy grail that they aren’t ready for anyway. 

My son just spent the weekend at Iowa's All Star series, a four-team tournament featuring the top 64 high school seniors from around the state. Of those, I counted about 10 going to D1 schools — including kids playing collegiate golf, hockey and football. Another group of about 10 were going to D2 (I think one) and D3s. The rest were going to Jucos.

We looked closely at the Juco option and the only thing I would warn is that you need to look at the academics. My son is going into college with about 35 credit hours from dual enrollment and AP credits. Juco might have been good for his baseball, but there was a very limited pool of classes he could have taken.

Your comment about the academic side of JuCo is a valid point.  All are not created equal in this regard and the range is a big one. We looked hard at that and it had a lot to do with our eventual decision. My son could have gone much closer to home but the academic opportunity was not the same. 

RoadRunner posted:

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

The kids in your sons class that are ranked a bit higher than him should not be his biggest concern, lol. He will be competing against guys that could be 4 years+ older and experienced than a freshman. Don’t let anyone outwork you. Be humble. Be coachable. And don’t be afraid to compete. 

Well, RJM posted above "The harsh reality of D1 ball is half the players leave to play someplace else within two years." 

I won't specify the school, but I saw in the commits for a P5 the following PG national ranks: 74, 159, 184, 282, 284, 353, 365, 460, 500, 500, and 1000. If my son had a "1000" ranking -- which really means a ranking somewhere between 2000 and 4000 -- and I saw the rest of the recruiting class at that school, it would make me wonder whether that was the right fit for him. JMO

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

That is a good question.  I was looking at Arkansas over the past few years.  The best Freshman pitcher this year was one of the lowest pitching recruits and the top 5 recruits are all gone after one year.  A few years ago the bottom 4 was Blaine Knight, Barrett Loseke, Weston Rogers, and Kacey Murphy.  That was the 1 and 2 that lead them to the championship series and one of their best relievers.  All three were drafted.  I think it is easy to rank the top 100 but the further out you go the more difficult it is to differentiate between players.  That is where competitiveness and mental makeup play a big role. 

d-mac posted:

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

That is a good question.  I was looking at Arkansas over the past few years.  The best Freshman pitcher this year was one of the lowest pitching recruits and the top 5 recruits are all gone after one year.  A few years ago the bottom 4 was Blaine Knight, Barrett Loseke, Weston Rogers, and Kacey Murphy.  That was the 1 and 2 that lead them to the championship series and one of their best relievers.  All three were drafted.  I think it is easy to rank the top 100 but the further out you go the more difficult it is to differentiate between players.  That is where competitiveness and mental makeup play a big role. 

On this board too much stock is put into PG ratings, IMO.  Their (PG) ratings are not the gospel.  In general, they are most accurate at the top (just like everyone else's) and the accuracy declines as you move down the scale of talent (just like everyone else that ranks players).  Some PG events do a really good job and others don't.  Some college programs may use PG (or PBR or UA) rankings as a reference but they are not the determining factor in any kids recruiting process. Coaches recruit kids based off what they SEE, not what they READ. 

I talked to an old crosschecker this summer.... he said he has never been to a PG event.  

bacdorslider posted:

I talked to an old crosschecker this summer.... he said he has never been to a PG event.  

Bingo 

2019Dad posted:

RoadRunner posted:

2019Dad posted:

2019Dad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

doesnt PG list the commitments by their ranking ?

Get Outlook for Android<https://aka.ms/ghei36>

Yup, that's what I said.

Not trying to be flip about it. But that's the question, if you are at the bottom or near the bottom -- or let's say, before you commit you realize you would be near the bottom -- should that be a red flag?

The kids in your sons class that are ranked a bit higher than him should not be his biggest concern, lol. He will be competing against guys that could be 4 years+ older and experienced than a freshman. Don’t let anyone outwork you. Be humble. Be coachable. And don’t be afraid to compete. 

Well, RJM posted above "The harsh reality of D1 ball is half the players leave to play someplace else within two years." 

I won't specify the school, but I saw in the commits for a P5 the following PG national ranks: 74, 159, 184, 282, 284, 353, 365, 460, 500, 500, and 1000. If my son had a "1000" ranking -- which really means a ranking somewhere between 2000 and 4000 -- and I saw the rest of the recruiting class at that school, it would make me wonder whether that was the right fit for him. JMO

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

GaryMe posted:

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

Midwest Mom posted:

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? As far as the PG rankings go, I think they are roughly accurate in their buckets, but not within those buckets (Top 100, 101-499, 500, 1000). And of course there are exceptions. And I know so many kids ranked without ever doing a PG showcase that I don't think that is the determining factor. Anyhow, to each his own, in my opinion if my kid had a "1000" ranking and the other kids in his recruiting class had rankings like 168, 222, etc., it would make me go "hmm." I am not saying that PG rankings are the determining factor in any coach's recruiting practice -- for all I know the college coaches never even look at them -- all I'm saying is that I as a parent would use them as a sanity check to know if my kid is "fishing in the right pond".

2019Dad posted:

GaryMe posted:

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

Midwest Mom posted:

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? As far as the PG rankings go, I think they are roughly accurate in their buckets, but not within those buckets (Top 100, 101-499, 500, 1000). And of course there are exceptions. And I know so many kids ranked without ever doing a PG showcase that I don't think that is the determining factor. Anyhow, to each his own, in my opinion if my kid had a "1000" ranking and the other kids in his recruiting class had rankings like 168, 222, etc., it would make me go "hmm." I am not saying that PG rankings are the determining factor in any coach's recruiting practice -- for all I know the college coaches never even look at them -- all I'm saying is that I as a parent would use them as a sanity check to know if my kid is "fishing in the right pond".

I don’t disagree with you. I’m actually a fan of PG.  All I’m saying is it’s not necessarily apples to apples because kids are seen at different times in their development - I know a kid who was seen freshman year and ranked high follow. Today he wouldn’t be a high follow - he’s one of the top kids in our state and is highly sought after as a rising senior.  His PG rank hasn’t changed so he might look like a high follow in a class made of up majority top 200.  He’s not top 200, but he’s probably top 500. Just saying we can recognize that the system isn’t perfect.  It’s good but not perfect, so I’m not too surprised when I see some variations in rankings in class, which happens a lot outside of the very top baseball schools. 

2019Dad posted:

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? 

I've thought about this A LOT over the past couple years, mostly to try to help my son avoid this situation.  I don't think it's because coaches are wrong in their assessments 50% of the time.  If a coach brings in multiple, similarly talented kids to compete for playing time, he's doing his job, but he's going to end up with one kid playing while the other kids are sitting and contemplating transfer, quitting or worrying about getting cut.  Since baseball isn't a game in which subs get lot of playing time, transferring out is the only way for many kids to see the playing field.  So my conclusion was to steer my kid to schools (I insisted on HA schools so he'd get a good education) where his talent could stand out, and make sure he could hit (so he'd still be in the line-up somewhere even if another player was stronger defensively).

2019Dad posted:

GaryMe posted:

Son went fall of sophomore year, graded an “8” and a high follow as a 15 year old. That was the last PG Showcase we ever felt inclined to attend. It does not reflect accurately the player he is now, but I don’t need to give PG $650 to validate his skill level as a rising senior. The college coaches showing interest in him provide that validation.

family friend had a son (same year as mine) who went to a PG event and pulled a hammy in the 60 yd dash, so he has a much slower time that what he really runs (he’s a 6.8 guy). She asked me if it would be worth it to get him to another PG showcase to get a better 60 time posted. My response was “is he getting in front of D1-D2 schools this summer and are they recruiting him?” Her answer was yes and no they are not recruiting him. I told her spending $650 with PG isn’t going to change that.” 

Just my story and opinion

Midwest Mom posted:

There are plenty of kids who do a PG event freshman or sophomore year but then don’t go back. For many their rankings would increase. You can’t put that much stock into PH rankings when it comes down to junior/senior year if they haven’t been recently. I’d say college coaches can accurately assess what they need. And if they’re getting kids in the top 200 they’re probably not doing a bad job. 

The way I look at it, if the coaches are so accurate in their assessments, why do half of the kids transfer within two years? As far as the PG rankings go, I think they are roughly accurate in their buckets, but not within those buckets (Top 100, 101-499, 500, 1000). And of course there are exceptions. And I know so many kids ranked without ever doing a PG showcase that I don't think that is the determining factor. Anyhow, to each his own, in my opinion if my kid had a "1000" ranking and the other kids in his recruiting class had rankings like 168, 222, etc., it would make me go "hmm." I am not saying that PG rankings are the determining factor in any coach's recruiting practice -- for all I know the college coaches never even look at them -- all I'm saying is that I as a parent would use them as a sanity check to know if my kid is "fishing in the right pond".

Saying that because half of the kids transfer, it means the coaches missed on their assessments isn't really that accurate of a statement IF you are just talking about skill.  There are just so many other factors:

A.  Does the kid like the place he is playing? (Small Town kid moves to a big city to, Big Town kid goes to a college town to play, etc.)

B.  Kid just plain gets homesick. (Mom, Dad, Girlfriend, etc.

C.  Pitcher who doesn't care for his PC.

D.  Gets injured.

E.  School is too hard, and wants to transfer to a less demanding university.

There are so many other reasons too.

I don't know that half the kids transfer? .. that's a huge number.   The fact is every year since I have been coming here ( 2009)  everyone has to go through the reality phase.  Mostly that Johnny is not as good as either the coach , the parent , the player thought he was and their goals were were placed to high. Maybe due to getting so much marketing thrown at them, maybe because they have no idea what they are talking about. So here's the travel ball parent test.  Pick either A or B.

1.) WWBA  and there are 40 RC's all huddled together and talking, texting, charting , are they "A" crazy  interested in "my boy"  or answer "B" comparing their fantasy football teams ?

2.) Jupiter WS  there are  50 scouts  behind the screen packed in like sardines, are "A" fighting for the front row to see how great my sons swing is  or "B" trying to stay in the shade.

3.) PBR event, pick one  they are all the same..... 100's of  RC's ...... every college team represented  10 are standing down the 3rd base line.... are they "A" watching the footwork on my stud infielder and his cannon arm,  or "B" trying to check out the sister or mom of a player and not get caught looking ?

4.)  Three weeks ago I was talking to a RC and I quote " I drove to Lake point to see a kid and not only was he terrible the team he was on and the team they were playing was terrible. " 

Here's how it works..... the big dog gotta eat first.... so the SEC then ACC and the PAC12  are going to cherry pick the best 10-12 players they can from where ever they darn well please. They have the money and they get who they want.  

Next are the Big 10 schools, some eastern schools , great schools they take the best from their area.   

Then the SEC and ACC come in again later in the recruiting cycle and take players for what they call the second tier recruits.

Next are the mid-majors, not always fully funded, but take the best in-state kids that are left and the Jucos that turned out alright.  maybe a few from neighboring states. 

If you are not getting any interest from P5 schools by your soph summer and / or interest from national travel teams, or Area Code, East Coast Pro then  you should probably start at the mid-major and work down.  Of course there is always an exception..... maybe you are it.....  Don't bother going to P5 camps, paying a ton of money.... etc....   Another true story..... player was on a recruiting visit to a nice baseball school in Kentucky and not UK.   as he and his family were being lead around they opened a door that went out onto the field... and as luck would have it, there was a camp going on.... and that's when I saw about a 50 players and parents have the uh hu  moment..... 

IF these power 5 schools want you they are not going to invite you to a camp, they are going to call you, they are going to call you daily, they are going to get you to campus "on a academic visit" and make sure they are in the office when you come by. They are going to write your offer on a dry erase board and point to it.   

I mean come on, do you know how many emails these guys get on a daily ?   If you want to answer emails go ahead, if you want to post videos go ahead.... won't do much good really.... 

Take your player to a local college and watch the games, be honest can I play with these guys, am I built like this, as fast as quick, arm as good..... and if you can get one coach or anyone to believe that your son has talent maybe he can go to bat for you.... these coaches are not going to give you 60k in money move you across the country to play D3 ball if they do not have a very good idea of who you are.    Sending tons of emails etc... it does not work that way..... they recruit you , you don't convince them... 

 

 

bacdorslider posted:

I don't know that half the kids transfer? .. that's a huge number.   The fact is every year since I have been coming here ( 2009)  everyone has to go through the reality phase.  Mostly that Johnny is not as good as either the coach , the parent , the player thought he was and their goals were were placed to high. Maybe due to getting so much marketing thrown at them, maybe because they have no idea what they are talking about. So here's the travel ball parent test.  Pick either A or B.

1.) WWBA  and there are 40 RC's all huddled together and talking, texting, charting , are they "A" crazy  interested in "my boy"  or answer "B" comparing their fantasy football teams ?

2.) Jupiter WS  there are  50 scouts  behind the screen packed in like sardines, are "A" fighting for the front row to see how great my sons swing is  or "B" trying to stay in the shade.

3.) PBR event, pick one  they are all the same..... 100's of  RC's ...... every college team represented  10 are standing down the 3rd base line.... are they "A" watching the footwork on my stud infielder and his cannon arm,  or "B" trying to check out the sister or mom of a player and not get caught looking ?

4.)  Three weeks ago I was talking to a RC and I quote " I drove to Lake point to see a kid and not only was he terrible the team he was on and the team they were playing was terrible. " 

Here's how it works..... the big dog gotta eat first.... so the SEC then ACC and the PAC12  are going to cherry pick the best 10-12 players they can from where ever they darn well please. They have the money and they get who they want.  

Next are the Big 10 schools, some eastern schools , great schools they take the best from their area.   

Then the SEC and ACC come in again later in the recruiting cycle and take players for what they call the second tier recruits.

Next are the mid-majors, not always fully funded, but take the best in-state kids that are left and the Jucos that turned out alright.  maybe a few from neighboring states. 

If you are not getting any interest from P5 schools by your soph summer and / or interest from national travel teams, or Area Code, East Coast Pro then  you should probably start at the mid-major and work down.  Of course there is always an exception..... maybe you are it.....  Don't bother going to P5 camps, paying a ton of money.... etc....   Another true story..... player was on a recruiting visit to a nice baseball school in Kentucky and not UK.   as he and his family were being lead around they opened a door that went out onto the field... and as luck would have it, there was a camp going on.... and that's when I saw about a 50 players and parents have the uh hu  moment..... 

IF these power 5 schools want you they are not going to invite you to a camp, they are going to call you, they are going to call you daily, they are going to get you to campus "on a academic visit" and make sure they are in the office when you come by. They are going to write your offer on a dry erase board and point to it.   

I mean come on, do you know how many emails these guys get on a daily ?   If you want to answer emails go ahead, if you want to post videos go ahead.... won't do much good really.... 

Take your player to a local college and watch the games, be honest can I play with these guys, am I built like this, as fast as quick, arm as good..... and if you can get one coach or anyone to believe that your son has talent maybe he can go to bat for you.... these coaches are not going to give you 60k in money move you across the country to play D3 ball if they do not have a very good idea of who you are.    Sending tons of emails etc... it does not work that way..... they recruit you , you don't convince them... 

 

 

Agree with all of the above - except you shortchanged the Big 12.  The answers are all “B” by the way. 

I always find it humorous when people say go juco, you will play like there aren't a ton of kids riding the pine in juco as well! Here is the deal go where you are loved regardless of division that's where you will be given the best opportunity to succeed and that is still just opportunity!

Catchdad44 posted:

I always find it humorous when people say go juco, you will play like there aren't a ton of kids riding the pine in juco as well! Here is the deal go where you are loved regardless of division that's where you will be given the best opportunity to succeed and that is still just opportunity!

I'm not sure whose posts you are reading.  I don't think its been suggested that the JUCO route is easy - it is very competitive.  The fact is that there are a ton of kids that want to play college baseball and the overwhelming majority of them are not ready (for a number of reasons) to secure playing time at any 4 year program as freshmen (or sophomores).  And you are not getting better if you are not playing.  This is especially true for position players. IMO JUCO is a practical alternative that more players should consider. I always find it amusing when people dismiss JUCO as something that their kid is too good for.  Your last sentence is 1000% correct. 

adbono posted:

Catchdad44 posted:

I always find it humorous when people say go juco, you will play like there aren't a ton of kids riding the pine in juco as well! Here is the deal go where you are loved regardless of division that's where you will be given the best opportunity to succeed and that is still just opportunity!

I'm not sure whose posts you are reading.  I don't think its been suggested that the JUCO route is easy - it is very competitive.  The fact is that there are a ton of kids that want to play college baseball and the overwhelming majority of them are not ready (for a number of reasons) to secure playing time at any 4 year program as freshmen (or sophomores).  And you are not getting better if you are not playing.  This is especially true for position players. IMO JUCO is a practical alternative that more players should consider. I always find it amusing when people dismiss JUCO as something that their kid is too good for.  Your last sentence is 1000% correct. 

I think we are in agreement, I just didn't explain myself! JUCO is a great alternative to a four year if that's who is recruiting you but don't expect the competition to be any less difficult. My main point being go where you are recruited, talk to the coaches about where you and your skill set fit in the program that's where you belong regardless of division and then it still doesn't work out sometimes!

Catchdad44 posted:

adbono posted:

Catchdad44 posted:

I always find it humorous when people say go juco, you will play like there aren't a ton of kids riding the pine in juco as well! Here is the deal go where you are loved regardless of division that's where you will be given the best opportunity to succeed and that is still just opportunity!

I'm not sure whose posts you are reading.  I don't think its been suggested that the JUCO route is easy - it is very competitive.  The fact is that there are a ton of kids that want to play college baseball and the overwhelming majority of them are not ready (for a number of reasons) to secure playing time at any 4 year program as freshmen (or sophomores).  And you are not getting better if you are not playing.  This is especially true for position players. IMO JUCO is a practical alternative that more players should consider. I always find it amusing when people dismiss JUCO as something that their kid is too good for.  Your last sentence is 1000% correct. 

I think we are in agreement, I just didn't explain myself! JUCO is a great alternative to a four year if that's who is recruiting you but don't expect the competition to be any less difficult. My main point being go where you are recruited, talk to the coaches about where you and your skill set fit in the program that's where you belong regardless of division and then it still doesn't work out sometimes!

We are in complete agreement! 

I would also add to to the discussion that DII and DIII are becoming more and more competitive as the over-commitment issue continues. I spoke with a RC/Asst Coach at a prominent DII school in So Cal this past week and he told me he is already getting calls from several power 5 D1's in the west asking if they would take players that aren't going to make their roster after the fall season. This coach said it is happening more and more every year.

Then you have talented players that go to these power 5 schools that over commit thinking they will sit their freshman year, get experience and play the next two years. Then, low and behold they end up becoming practice players because the next recruiting class the following two years are also over committed and they have two studs in each of those classes that play their position as well. Its a vicious cycle that becomes extremely demoralizing for some.

I asked the head coach of this DII school what is the one big difference that his transfers from big D1 schools say about playing at a DII? He said, "Certainly not the skill level or quality of play. Most of the guys in DII can play D1. The players all say its how the coaching staff treats them. They care about the players on and off the field much more. Its much more stressful from a job security standpoint for a D1 coach. Winning is essential and players (pitchers definitely) are on a much shorter leash."

My son is a low D1 (at best) player and has offers at every level (called "spots" at D3's??). He is also a "dirtbag"/gym rat. He wants to be on the field all the time. He realizes now he may not get that opportunity at a D1 and does not want to constantly look over his shoulder year after year to see what new stud is coming to take his spot. I think the discussion with these coaches helped him make his decision easier. 

2019cubdad posted:

I would also add to to the discussion that DII and DIII are becoming more and more competitive as the over-commitment issue continues. I spoke with a RC/Asst Coach at a prominent DII school in So Cal this past week and he told me he is already getting calls from several power 5 D1's in the west asking if they would take players that aren't going to make their roster after the fall season. This coach said it is happening more and more every year.

Then you have talented players that go to these power 5 schools that over commit thinking they will sit their freshman year, get experience and play the next two years. Then, low and behold they end up becoming practice players because the next recruiting class the following two years are also over committed and they have two studs in each of those classes that play their position as well. Its a vicious cycle that becomes extremely demoralizing for some.

I asked the head coach of this DII school what is the one big difference that his transfers from big D1 schools say about playing at a DII? He said, "Certainly not the skill level or quality of play. Most of the guys in DII can play D1. The players all say its how the coaching staff treats them. They care about the players on and off the field much more. Its much more stressful from a job security standpoint for a D1 coach. Winning is essential and players (pitchers definitely) are on a much shorter leash."

My son is a low D1 (at best) player and has offers at every level (called "spots" at D3's??). He is also a "dirtbag"/gym rat. He wants to be on the field all the time. He realizes now he may not get that opportunity at a D1 and does not want to constantly look over his shoulder year after year to see what new stud is coming to take his spot. I think the discussion with these coaches helped him make his decision easier. 

I hadn't really heard of the practice of D1 coaches contacting other schools to see if they had spots for overcommits, but that sure is interesting and makes some sense. 

Can't speak to the west, but in the southeast - D2 and Juco ball is on par with D1.  A couple of years ago I ran into a pitcher who left Louisville for fear of not getting reps to come to a Peach Belt conference school (D2).  He told me that he thought he was going to come down and dominate the conference.  Once he got here, he said he would have had better chances to become a regular pitcher if he had stayed at Louisville.  He said he had no idea how thick the talent was in the southeast.  

If you want to play competitive ball, the opportunities are there.

 

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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bacdorslider posted:

, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

Bingo

bacdorslider posted:

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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Just look at Perfect Game 2019 Commits. Oklahoma, Wichita State, Michigan, etc. I can name more. They are all over committed. Iowa may even be this year. Seniors are coming back unexpectedly. As far as free agents, look at who the reps are signing. They are not signing guys that sat on the bench for D1s for three years. They want guys that played and played at a high level at d2, NAIA or D1.

Its become a huge problem. My son's high school team has 9 D1 commits this season and three of them won't start this year.

D1 over committing will continue until players stop doing it. i have spoken to many many people in pro baseball ... while a lot of D1 players get drafted, teams are looking for skills that translate to pro ball. ypu can be in the carribean, mexico, japan, d1 d2 , juco, high school they really do not care

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bacdorslider posted:

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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Texas, Texas Tech and TCU might disagree...

 

2019cubdad posted:

bacdorslider posted:

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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Just look at Perfect Game 2019 Commits. Oklahoma, Wichita State, Michigan, etc. I can name more. They are all over committed. Iowa may even be this year. Seniors are coming back unexpectedly. As far as free agents, look at who the reps are signing. They are not signing guys that sat on the bench for D1s for three years. They want guys that played and played at a high level at d2, NAIA or D1.

Its become a huge problem. My son's high school team has 9 D1 commits this season and three of them won't start this year.

2019cubdad,

I think you are misunderstanding bacdorslider. There are plenty of D1 schools overcommitting players because coaches' jobs depend on it.  But P5 is not relevant in baseball, not the way it is football and basketball. You can look at the stadiums, the attendance to games, and most specifically the coaches salaries as indicators.   Players are willing to overcommit, drop their commitments to other D1s, etc to play for an SEC team.  They don't care that Arkansas has committed 80 players in the last 4 years. 

So it is SEC first,  then ACC (top 2/3) and PAC (again top 2/3), but the  Big10 and Big12 don't have the same extent interest level of the fan base, the stadiums, and coaches salaries just are not there with isolated schools being the exception.  So kids overcommitting to these other P5 schools might be better served to consider offers from other conferences like the Southern Conference, the American Athletic conference, Sun Belt, Conference USA, and Atlantic Sun which have equal or deeper overall baseball talent than the Big 10, Big 12.  There are programs like Mercer, Coastal Carloina, Cental Florida, South Florida, Rice, etc (just naming a few, these conferences are really deep) that have superior programs by comparison to what you see in most of Big 10 and Big 12.  Mercer has dominated both ACC and SEC opponents over the past decade. Georgia stopped playing Mercer last year, because they were 1-7 against Mercer the previous 4 years.  Coastal Carolina won the CWS as a member of the SoCon two years ago, and is now in the Sun Belt.  Heck, in the tiny population state of South Carolina, USC and Clemson struggle with in state rivalries with schools like Coastal, Furman, College of Charleston, USC Upstate, an Charleston Southern more than thy do with in-conference opponents.

It pains me to say it, but anyone of those 'mid major' programs has more talent in any given year than my home state OSU Buckeyes do.  So talking P5 in baseball, just is not the same as NCAAF. 

Bacdorslider is right in his next post; it won't change unless the athletes and their parents stop overcommitting.

baseballhs posted:

bacdorslider posted:

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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Texas, Texas Tech and TCU might disagree...

 

I agree. Not the first time you have shortchanged the Big 12 in your posts. 

When the NCAA capped DI rosters at a maximum of 35 players in 2007, they opened an unintended "can of worms." At least, I hope it was unintended.

Prior to 2007, there had always been a certain number of players who might have been at the margin for DI programs; but, who for a host of reasons individual to them, would decide to stay at their chosen school.  As a result, it wasn't unusual to see DI rosters number in the 36-45 range.

Players and coaches involved understood that playing time for them would likely be limited, and that was generally okay with those involved. There was much less gnashing of teeth over "over recruiting" in that environment because there was no hard-and-fast edict to deal with; limiting the roster to 35 players.

Introduce the 35-man limit and, suddenly, coaches are faced with the prospect of trying to recruit to exactly that number if they want to avoid the anguish of cutting and transferring; and the vast majority do want to avoid that. Unfortunately, there are a host of uncontrollable factors that make the objective almost impossible to attain consistently. When you consider the vagaries of the draft on both the incoming 18-year-olds  and the returning 21-year-olds, the inevitable injuries and subsequent recovery periods, the toll of academic and disciplinary washouts, and a host of personal reasons for players' decisions to transfer or quit, coaches are recruiting to, at best. an imprecise estimate of their final needs.

Add to this the common belief among coaches that a roster of even a few less than 35 will exponentially increase the prospects of losing games over a 56-game regular season schedule, and you get a natural inclination to err a bit on the high side on the number of commitments accepted.

For all of these reasons, I think the 35-man roster limit was ill advised and ought to be rescinded. 

And as for big 12 spending money: https://pistolsfiringblog.com/...tadium-set-for-2020/

Facilities at YCU, I put up against anyone.  Texas has nice stuff too.  Haven’t seen some of the others.  I’ve seen several SEC facilities and I don’t see a big disparity.

baseballhs posted:

bacdorslider posted:

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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Texas, Texas Tech and TCU might disagree...

 

You are correct they might..... that's why I said a handful..... My son pitched a TTU so I do kinda feel I have some insight. 

I agree the 35 man roster should be rescinded - I think a roster limit of 30 would be better! I would also create a rule where if the schools don't release a player to play somewhere else they can't use the scholarship dollars until he can.

That will slow down the recruiting process, spread out the talent and take "God complex" out of coaching and make the schools really think about the recruits they are bringing instead of just stockpiling talent.

Of course the coaches won't like it, they will have to work harder, be accountable and there will needs on both program and player sides to find the right fit and get along. if a 65 game season is to much for 30 players cut it back.

adbono posted:

baseballhs posted:

bacdorslider posted:

a few thoughts.... i agree there are plenty of d2 guys that could play D1 ball. but thats a broad stroke. all this P5 stuff is kinda non sense. without trying to offend, in baseball theres the SEC and then there are a handful in the ACC and PAC12 but honestly the Big 10 and Big 12 are not there . also as far as players getting caught up in the over committing thing, you have to as a player know if you are in the first round of recruiting or the second round of if ypu are filling out the roster. usually you can tell based on scholarship what they really think of you. you cannot go into it thinking that you will sit as a freshman, you have to be honest and say, can i play as a freshman if not dont go there .

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Texas, Texas Tech and TCU might disagree...

 

I agree. Not the first time you have shortchanged the Big 12 in your posts. 

Well , if you can convince me otherwise... OSU scrimmaged VU last week  it was not close..... of course Texas, TCU and Tech are quality programs  but hardly , Georgia , VU, Miss St. Ark, South Carolina, Florida, LSU, Mizzo,  it is what it is

Let's stop playing college baseball in the Winter and see what happens in recruiting! I biggest home court advantage in college sports!

We can all agree that the SEC has been the strongest conference recently. In fact, based on the 21st century rate of CWS titles, in another three or four hundred years it should catch the PAC 12 in overall number of CWS titles:

PAC 12: 28 CWS titles overall, 5 so far this century

SEC: 11 CWS titles overall, 6 so far this century