D2 Undrafted

Francis

need more info.

How many doubles and HR with wood. What is running speed.
What defense position. Bat left or right. What summer League. What conference.
Twenty years evaluating the Division 2 similar players. Your numbers equal many players. Few options to continue.

Bob

The best hitter on my son’s travel team the year behind him had the sweetest swing on the team. He became a D2 All American. He didn’t even get a sniff from MLB.

He was a 5’10” first baseman. He couldn’t run. He couldn’t throw. MLB doesn’t sign players on the hope they pan out as a DH. DH is a fall back position. DH is a floor potential, not ceiling potential.

The kid was also dumber than a tree stump. He made an ignorant, controversial Tweet that got him national exposure. He may have been right to a point. But, it’s better to remain quiet and thought stupid than Tweet, embarrass yourself nationally and remove all doubt.

Think that the conference is key here.  In the Sunshine State those numbers might get you somewhere.

@Francis7 posted:

D2 position player.

Just finished his senior year. Had around 600 At Bats over the 4 years in total.

Career NCAA D2 stats in those 600 AB:

Batting Average .370

On Base Average .470

Slugging Percentage .590

Goes undrafted. As of this moment not signed as a NDFA.

Is this because pro teams feel that the quality of pitching at the D2 level is inferior?

Consultant has asked good questions.

I can't find 2022 D2 draft info but here is what I found.

In 2021 22 D2 players were drafted. While covid may have played a part, I think it will become the norm with the shortened draft. Also, this year there was a huge prep class.

The Sunshine State Conference had the most drafted last year as they have in the past 7 years led by Florida Southern with the most in that conference.

STL has drafted the most among D2 in the MLB draft, 29 total including last year. I know one of those players drafted by STL that is a pitcher and made the ML team this year. I also know another that was drafted by STL, Matt Adams (Slippery Rock) so STL must have a knack for drafting D2 players who might reach MLB. I think the competition among conferences may also be involved in the decision.

All were JR or SR signs.

Players usually in the draft  have had a scout recommend them to MLB and they have been identified and given an identifying number on the draft board. If he isn't the chances are he wasnt considered even before the draft. If he is, might become a FA. You can go to D1 baseball for FA signings, it's free.

@TPM posted:

I can't find 2022 D2 draft info but here is what I found.

Found this article - the answer is 17 drafted in 2022 and 12 were pitchers but the first off the board was a SS in the 5th round. 

Round 5, Minnesota Twins: Ben Ross, Notre Dame (OH), SS — Ross was the first DII player off the board in 2022. The Falcons shortstop is super toolsy, able to hit for average and power, has speed on the bases, and plays a solid shortstop. He hit .392 with a 1.99 OPS in 2022, adding 20 doubles, 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

https://waynecavadi.substack.c...at-to-know-about-the

Francis you can pm me the players name I will look it up on the draft board to see if his name was submitted.

I haven't seen the final numbers for this year but in 2021 there were 22 D2 players drafted. Only 4 of which were position players. The rest were arms.

Even in previous years, most were arms and most picks came between rounds 21-40. With the shortened draft you're probably less likely to see position players from that level.

I wouldn't get caught up in the stats either way. The all time SEC hits leader was drafted in Rd 32 after hitting .350.

MLB doesn’t scout statistics.  The question is at least naive and borderline nonsensical.  Need about 50 data points of context to even begin to guess.

@TPM posted:

Francis you can pm me the players name I will look it up on the draft board to see if his name was submitted.

Thanks. It was submitted.

During the draft, MLB had a tracker online. You could search for players by their state. And, when I did that, I saw his name listed (as, then, still undrafted). FWIW, he was not the only senior on his team. But, when I did the search, just him and one other player from the team came up. So, I'm guessing just him and the one other player were submitted.

@3and2Fastball posted:

MLB doesn’t scout statistics.  The question is at least naive and borderline nonsensical.  Need about 50 data points of context to even begin to guess.

I'm a big believer in sample size and context when looking at stats. That said, I would think a career OPS of 1.000 in 600 At Bats at least tells you that the kid has a knack for barreling baseballs. Now...barreling baseballs IS different at different levels. Doing it constantly as a professional is much more impressive than in High School. Why? Facing better competition. That's why I asked the question. Does ignoring this player despite the numbers happen because people think doing it at D2 is not as impressive as D1?

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Found this article - the answer is 17 drafted in 2022 and 12 were pitchers but the first off the board was a SS in the 5th round.

Round 5, Minnesota Twins: Ben Ross, Notre Dame (OH), SS — Ross was the first DII player off the board in 2022. The Falcons shortstop is super toolsy, able to hit for average and power, has speed on the bases, and plays a solid shortstop. He hit .392 with a 1.99 OPS in 2022, adding 20 doubles, 14 home runs and 15 stolen bases.

https://waynecavadi.substack.c...at-to-know-about-the

Nice. Thanks for finding. I searched then gave up.

I saw that STL drafted another D2. They must have a lot of success with D2, however they do have a very good farm system.

@Francis7 posted:

I'm a big believer in sample size and context when looking at stats. That said, I would think a career OPS of 1.000 in 600 At Bats at least tells you that the kid has a knack for barreling baseballs. Now...barreling baseballs IS different at different levels. Doing it constantly as a professional is much more impressive than in High School. Why? Facing better competition. That's why I asked the question. Does ignoring this player despite the numbers happen because people think doing it at D2 is not as impressive as D1?

I think what you are asking is:  will your kid’s career end in college because he’s going D2, right?

Again, there are tons of factors beyond stats.  Part of it is proving oneself in a great summer wood bat league.  

Can a player hit 96 mph+?  Does their mechanics/body/athleticism translate to potential in MLB?  How’s their character and work ethic?

A lot of players can hit college pitching but can’t hit with wood and/or can’t hit pro caliber pitching.

In D2 & D3 the variety of pitching you will face is vast.  You can really build up stats against fastballs of 80-90 and that has zero relevance to pro scouts

@3and2Fastball posted:

I think what you are asking is:  will your kid’s career end in college because he’s going D2, right?

Again, there are tons of factors beyond stats.  Part of it is proving oneself in a great summer wood bat league.  

Can a player hit 96 mph+?  Does their mechanics/body/athleticism translate to potential in MLB?  How’s their character and work ethic?

A lot of players can hit college pitching but can’t hit with wood and/or can’t hit pro caliber pitching.

In D2 & D3 the variety of pitching you will face is vast.  You can really build up stats against fastballs of 80-90 and that has zero relevance to pro scouts

Not just hit 96 mph. Can he consistently turn on 96 mph?

@3and2Fastball posted:

I think what you are asking is:  will your kid’s career end in college because he’s going D2, right?

Again, there are tons of factors beyond stats.  Part of it is proving oneself in a great summer wood bat league.  

Can a player hit 96 mph+?  Does their mechanics/body/athleticism translate to potential in MLB?  How’s their character and work ethic?

A lot of players can hit college pitching but can’t hit with wood and/or can’t hit pro caliber pitching.

In D2 & D3 the variety of pitching you will face is vast.  You can really build up stats against fastballs of 80-90 and that has zero relevance to pro scouts

Well, my kid is an incoming freshman. I'm not thinking about after school for him. That's getting way ahead. He has to first survive the first semester of freshman year, the first baseball season, etc. That just gets him into a good position for sophomore year. And, it's still a long way to go from there. I have no misguided thoughts about baseball after college. This isn't a personal question for me.

More so, just thinking about the D2 player in general. Personally, I think cutting the draft to 20 rounds has really hurt them - if their goal was to get drafted.

Seems like rounds 21-35 would have been their better shot and now that's gone.

Wouldn't shock me if MLB cut it down to 10 rounds some day. More leverage for them to cut down on bonus money for those not extremely highly touted.

I think as a D2 player and even as a small conference D1 player you have to be really outstanding do get drafted as a hitter.

You need to perform statistically as a college hitter but you also need to show something special like playing a premium position, being super fast or having true plus power.

@RJM posted:

Not just hit 96 mph. Can he consistently turn on 96 mph?

Well that’s just it.  MLB hitters will hit HR’s consistently on 96 mph pitches that are accidentally put right down the middle.  With a wood bat.

For a D2 player to even get into a good enough summer league to face legit MLB prospect pitching is an achievement.  And then to get enough at bats in that league to get scouted is another achievement.

To get back to Francis’ original question:  exactly zero of any of this has to do with D2 statistics

To answer his follow up questions:  no, a player is not automatically disqualified for draft consideration because he is a D2 player

The questions, again, are way too generalized of course.  D2 Tampa puts plenty of players in pro ball. D2 Winona State?  Not so much.

When son was drafted, the Cardinals had about 6 affiliates plus the DSL as did most teams. This was just ridiculous. No one needs that many teams or personel, no one, spend your millions with better intent.

Things are much better in milb now.

Cutting down on the draft was a good move. I am all in 100%.

3and2Fastball is correct about not drafting entirely on stats.  Teams don't draft on 3 stats that you mentioned.  Where are the other stats?

You may not like this, but reality is that there were much better players ahead of him, obviously.  What did he do this year?  You asked a question but didn't give us facts that go into drafting a player.

I know of an SEC D1 player drafted first round with stats you gave as 4 year average with better ones this year. And probably more than 2 years younger.

Does D1 vs D2 have anything to do with being drafted. IMO yes, but if you have ML stuff, which includes more than 4 year average stats, you can get an opportunity.

I agree TPM, lowering the amount of affiliates in MiLB and lessening the draft rounds is a good thing.  And there are more independent pro leagues starting up around the country, too, for those who want to keep playing.

@3and2Fastball posted:

I agree TPM, lowering the amount of affiliates in MiLB and lessening the draft rounds is a good thing.  And there are more independent pro leagues starting up around the country, too, for those who want to keep playing.

Yes! Forgot to mention that.

So the mystery D2 player has an opportunity to keep on playing with hopes of perhaps getting a pick up as FA at one point!!!

@Francis7 posted:

I think cutting the draft to 20 rounds has really hurt them - if their goal was to get drafted.

Seems like rounds 21-35 would have been their better shot and now that's gone.

Wouldn't shock me if MLB cut it down to 10 rounds some day. More leverage for them to cut down on bonus money for those not extremely highly touted.

Slot money only goes to round ten. 84% of American born MLB’ers were drafted in the first ten rounds. Another 10% (making 94%) are from the first twenty rounds.

Players drafted in the first ten rounds are the prospects. Players drafted in rounds 11-20 are quality suspects and Single A roster filler. The exception would be the top prospect high school player taken late who is a long shot to sign. Anyone who was drafted after round twenty was a suspect and roster filler.

Cutting the draft to twenty rounds helps the suspects (your sample D2 player). They can sign as a free agent in organizations where they believe they have the best long shot to make it.

@Francis7 posted:

Well, my kid is an incoming freshman. I'm not thinking about after school for him. That's getting way ahead. He has to first survive the first semester of freshman year, the first baseball season, etc. That just gets him into a good position for sophomore year. And, it's still a long way to go from there. I have no misguided thoughts about baseball after college. This isn't a personal question for me.

More so, just thinking about the D2 player in general. Personally, I think cutting the draft to 20 rounds has really hurt them - if their goal was to get drafted.

Seems like rounds 21-35 would have been their better shot and now that's gone.

Wouldn't shock me if MLB cut it down to 10 rounds some day. More leverage for them to cut down on bonus money for those not extremely highly touted.

There is only slot money for the Rds 1-10 to begin with. MLB already holds all the leverage, they are the ones cutting the checks.

They just cut 42 minor league teams which doesn't seem like a lot but it's basically 1.5 teams per org. 45 players per org are now gone. No need for another 20 rounds of the draft.

Austin Filiere (MIT, D3) was invited to be a fill in player in the Cape League until players returned from the CWS. He lit up the league. He ended up being drafted in the 8th round a couple of years later. Previous to then Cape League he had played in the Futures League, a low level collegiate league that allows graduating high school seniors.

Filiere left baseball after two decent low and high A seasons. Chances are as an MIT grad T Rowe Price offered him a lot of money to leave baseball.

@TPM posted:

Consultant has asked good questions.

I can't find 2022 D2 draft info but here is what I found.

In 2021 22 D2 players were drafted. While covid may have played a part, I think it will become the norm with the shortened draft. Also, this year there was a huge prep class.

The Sunshine State Conference had the most drafted last year as they have in the past 7 years led by Florida Southern with the most in that conference.

STL has drafted the most among D2 in the MLB draft, 29 total including last year. I know one of those players drafted by STL that is a pitcher and made the ML team this year. I also know another that was drafted by STL, Matt Adams (Slippery Rock) so STL must have a knack for drafting D2 players who might reach MLB. I think the competition among conferences may also be involved in the decision.

All were JR or SR signs.

Players usually in the draft  have had a scout recommend them to MLB and they have been identified and given an identifying number on the draft board. If he isn't the chances are he wasnt considered even before the draft. If he is, might become a FA. You can go to D1 baseball for FA signings, it's free.

Awesome, thank you!!

@RJM posted:

Slot money only goes to round ten. 84% of American born MLB’ers were drafted in the first ten rounds. Another 10% (making 94%) are from the first twenty rounds.

Players drafted in the first ten rounds are the prospects. Players drafted in rounds 11-20 are quality suspects and Single A roster filler. The exception would be the top prospect high school player taken late who is a long shot to sign. Anyone who was drafted after round twenty was a suspect and roster filler.

Cutting the draft to twenty rounds helps the suspects (your sample D2 player). They can sign as a free agent in organizations where they believe they have the best long shot to make it.

Secondly, depending on the teams signing strategy rounds 6 thru 10 are used to select players with no remaining eligibility, thus offer them a bonus to buy a new phone.

For example, the Angels signed the 9th and10th round picks for 7.5k  for where  slot values 1.62k and1.52k respectively.

Subsequent picks 11 thru 20 received the following

FA signings have changed, it's just not for those that have used up their eligibility. One  player, RSoph entered portal picked up by CWS winners signed last week by them, went undrafted and then signed FA. I am sure that there must be others with similar situations, if they wait until following year it may be too late.

Caden Dana is a perfect example of the exception I mentioned. If slot money is used properly the extra can used used to draft a top prospect high school player late and talk him out of playing college ball.

One of my son’s travel teammates was a potential first round pick. He declared unless offered $X he was heading to a top ranked program. He was selected in the third round by a team with an extra compensation pick. They offered X-200K. The kid signed at 11:59pm on the deadline day. Unfortunately he was as injury prone as a pro as he was in high school.

Anyone can go to spotrac.com and search MLB draft tracker and find how who is signing for what.

@TPM posted:

Anyone can go to spotrac.com and search MLB draft tracker and find how who is signing for what.

Yeah,  I'm trying to figure out what is correct,

spotrac

mlb

baseball america

@RJM posted:

Caden Dana is a perfect example of the exception I mentioned. If slot money is used properly the extra can used used to draft a top prospect high school player late and talk him out of playing college ball.

One of my son’s travel teammates was a potential first round pick. New declared um,ess offered $X he was heading to a top ranked program. He was selected in the third round by a team with an extra compensation pick. They offered X-200K. The kid signed at 11:59pm on the deadline day. Unfortunately he was as injury prone as a pro as he was in high school.

Quick question,  do you think a draft choice selected in rounds 6-10 with no eligibility should get at least a 25% of the slot bonus?

It really sucks to see those guys get enough money for 1 month rent.

@CollegebaseballInsights

The signings on spotrac of those we know have been accurate.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Quick question,  do you think a draft choice selected in rounds 6-10 with no eligibility should get at least a 25% of the slot bonus?

It really sucks to see those guys get enough money for 1 month rent.

If they even get that. Saw a kid sign for $1000. Yes, USD.

Round trip flight is about $700 to where he has to go

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Quick question,  do you think a draft choice selected in rounds 6-10 with no eligibility should get at least a 25% of the slot bonus?

It really sucks to see those guys get enough money for 1 month rent.

It’s a business negotiation. The player has leverage until he stays through senior year of college.

@RJM posted:

It’s a business negotiation. The player has leverage until he stays through senior year of college.

That’s it exactly.  D1 guys know the drill.  They know they are losing leverage if they go back for their Senior year.  None of them are being caught surprised by any of it.

@RJM posted:

It’s a business negotiation. The player has leverage until he stays through senior year of college.

Note, with the reduction of draft slots, they would only be able to sign as free agent in 2021. Cap I believe at 20k.

There is no negotiation.  It might be better  to sign as a free agent vs begin selected with no leverage.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Note, with the reduction of draft slots, they would only be able to sign as free agent in 2021. Cap I believe at 20k.

There is no negotiation.  It might be better  to sign as a free agent vs begin selected with no leverage.

The ability to negotiate depends on the situation the player places himself. As I mentioned a player who stays in school through his eligibility loses all negotiation. I agree it’s better to be a free agent than drafted in those circumstances.

@RJM posted:

The ability to negotiate depends on the situation the player places himself. As I mentioned a player who stays in school through his eligibility loses all negotiation. I agree it’s better to be a free agent than drafted in those circumstances.

The last 2 years was a force upon position, wasn't there a cap of ~20k for free agents the last year or 2?

@CollegebaseballInsights they just got rid of the $20k cap a couple of weeks ago.

@PTWood posted:

@CollegebaseballInsights they just got rid of the $20k cap a couple of weeks ago.

@ptwood thus confirming the point of that for the last 2 years, there really wasn't an option for those that came back for additional year.

There were 2 events that curtailed the decisions of many:

1 - Eliminate of 40 minor league teams

2 - Free Agent Signing Caps

Now, they were selected in rounds 6 - 10 swamp vs being able to sign on as a free agent.

Note, this is not to say they would have received more, but if a team selects you, there should be a minimum value they would need to provide towards the slot (e.g. 25% of the slot)

Note, IMHO this is a MLB and MLBPA collusion issue.