I've read through this thread in detail and given this some thought.. Time will tell, I suppose, but so far I've consistently underestimated 2019Son. Although in fairness to me, he wasn't very good when he was younger!
Beginning about 18 months ago, independent folks (i.e., not coaches paid by me) started noticing him -- for example, when a local high school varsity head coach came out to see a couple of 2019Son's 13U team's games in the fall of 2013 (4 of the kids on the team were in a junior high feeding into that coach's high school) it was a complete shock to me when the coach, after watching the team play, specifically asked "Who's that kid? Do I get him?" I never did speak with that coach (we're not in that school district), so I'm not sure what he saw, but it did surprise me.
A similar surprise occurred shortly after his 13U season ended (the team wasn't continuing into the 14U year, as a number of kids were entering high school last fall). The coach of the team (who had coached the team in 12U and 13U, but who at this point had no further business to be gotten from me; also his older son is going to play baseball at a D1 next year; the coach himself was a college basketball player -- in other words, he knows more than me) asked me who I thought would end up being the best player from that team. I quickly named 3 kids -- the three best kids on the team, IMHO -- and didn't mention 2019Son. The coach disagreed, and told me that he thought that 2019Son would end up as the best player, gave me his reasons for thinking so, and told me that 2019Son (who had just finished 7th grade at the time) ought to be thinking about playing in college. I was completely incredulous. Whaaaat?!? And the next thing I did was join HSBBW to try to educate myself!
The funny thing is, my perception is the same (that 2019Son is a decent player, but not a great one), it's just that the goalposts have shifted. Instead of comparing him as a rec ball player at age 10 to the kids who were playing travel ball at that age, I found myself last week in Arizona comparing him to kids who have made a U.S. national team, or are strong candidates for one. And that is not 2019Son -- you see, he's a decent player, but those national team players are great.