Dominion District Down to the wire

Don't know the answer to that, but do have a question.

Could people alert us when they learn of the scheduling of rainout makeups?  I'd hate to miss any good games just because I didn't know the when and where.  The RTD only publishes based on the pre-season schedule so that is no help for makeups.

They would split the regular season title but they will have a playoff for the automatic berth to regionals. I'm just guessing it would be Friday or Monday.

To a fan that sounds pretty interesting - getting to see them lock horns two times in 2 days with something serious on the line.  Epic.

Problem might be that the team to lose that "playoff" game would be in a situation where they just played back to back "finals" type games and then are immediately into district tournament play in basically a must win situation.  Down to your 3rd or 4th arm and having to beat a team on their 2nd.  The middle of the pack has shown their ability to play giant killer already.  Who would want to bump into Manchester in round 2 having to beat Butts, Powell, Lane or Mauricio?  Yikes.  Or Bird, or even Clover Hill for that matter.

This could get REALLY interesting in the next week to 10 days.

Midlo at Clover Hill moved to next Monday. That now makes for a tough final week for the Trojans with CH on Monday, Monacan on Tuesday and Manchester on Thursday. Looking forward to seeing those 3 match ups. Good Luck to all our Dominion Teams in the Districts and beyond, its been an interesting season to say the least. 

You tell RRC "BELIEVE"!! Complete games from RRC and DF....you got this!!!

We could end up with similar situation at the bottom of the dominion, with midlo and monacan being tied for the last playoff spot...right now i believe they both have 2 wins, with monacan having won the 1st game against midlo...2nd game next week.  Monacan has JR, Bird, and Midlo left

Midlo has CH, Monacan, Manchester

My excitement regarding the possibility of a tie for first was squashed today.  Turns out Cosby and JRHS both have 2 losses so unless Cosby stumbles vs Clover hill tomorrow the JRHS v Cosby game will be a winner take all for 1st place.

Could be a 3 way tie in the Central. PG and Matoaca are tied at top with 2 losses. Dale has 3. PG and Matoaca play Tuesday. Matoaca at Dale on Wed. A year unlike any other in the region...

Parity is a good thing.

Regionals are going to be VERY interesting.

Hanover, Freeman, JRHS, Cosby, TD, Matoaca, PG, Godwin, Atlee

9 teams all with a legitimate shot at winning it and that doesn't even include another 5 or 6 that can make a run very easily if they can get through districts.

Very fun year so far - now if the weather will just cooperate......

Technically not Central Region, but in our area, I see where Tyler Allen hit 2 grand slams in one game yesterday.  RTD says he was 2-for-2 which suggests, as often happens, that he was walked in his other plate appearances. 

Powhatan has maybe underperformed during the regular season, it'd be neat to see them hit their stride just in time for the playoffs.  Luke Scherzer also homered and doubled in the same game as Powhatan beat Western Albemarle, 15-3 in 4 1/2 innings.

"Could people alert us when they learn of the scheduling of rainout makeups?  "

Today's makeup Monacan/James River game has been moved to James River.  Varsity at 4:30 and JV after.

I get the two team playoff to decide the automatic regional birth, but what happens if THREE teams are tied for 1st?  This has a good change of happening in the Central.

If Matoaca beats Prince George on Tuesday (PG won last time by 1 run) and Thomas Dale beats Matoaca on Wed (Rain make up - Matoaca won by 2 last time) then PG, Matoaca and TD will all have 3 District Losses each.

What happens then?

Clover Hill beat River and Cosby earlier in the year

For Central District 3-way tie, I am told that would result in a "mini-playoff" to determine the "season" district champion.  A simple coin toss process would determine who sits out the first game and watches the other two battle it out.

I think my stats are correct:

Cosby beat Clover Hill tonight 5 to 1 (now 13-3 overall, 10-2 district).

James River came from behind to beat Monacan 7 to 6. A far RF throw to home to get the runner out to win the game was not only spot on, but SportsCenter worthy. (now 15-3 overall, 9-2 district).

But JR needs to get past Manchester's Butts and staff on Tuesday before Cosby on Thursday.

.... the 10 day forecast is looking good for Tuesday and Thursday.

keewart - I have Cosby at 9-2 (with last nights W) in the district not 10-2.  They are 0-1 against JR, 1-1 against Clover Hill and 2-0 against everybody else.  Midlo is going to have a busy week.

Cosby 9-2 with JR only game remaining

JR 8-2 with Cosby and Manchester remaining

Manchester 6-4 with JR and Midlo remaining

LC Bird 4-6 with Clover Hill and Monacan remaining

Clover Hill 4-6 with Bird and Midlo remaining

Midlothian 2-7 with Clover Hill, Manchester and Monacan remaining

Monacan 2-8 with Bird and Midlo remaining

Good morning, Fenway,

Will send you a PM.  I may not be counting on my fingers correctly?

interesting.  If it turns out these are accurate (and it seems like they are) then it is conceivable that Manchester could sneak in there and take 2nd place if Butts can beat JRHS and JRHS then loses to Cosby.  So, JRHS could go from what was basically a victory lap through the second half all the way to 3rd place all because of the Clover Hill 7th ining rally.  Wow. Both JRHS and Manchester would have 4 losses and since Butts beat JRHS last time out that would give Manchester the nod in the head to head tiebreker since they would be 2-0 vs the Rapids.  Interesting.

Some drama afterall

and there is still the 6 seed to be figured out too.  yipee!!

For anyone reading this (and cares....) Fenway and I are both correct in our stats.  I was including Huguenot and Fenway was not. (And how is Huguenot counted anyway?!)  Either way, JR will need to beat Manchester on Tuesday for a 'winner-take-first place' game on Thursday against Cosby.  

Going to be an interesting week!  

actually - I think no matter what the JRHS v Cosby game will be a winner take all.  Even if JRHS were to lose to Manchester the winner of the JRHS Cosby game will take 1st place since that would make each team 9-3 but JRHS would have 2 wins over Cosby head to head (if that is in fact the tie breaker - someone correct me if I am wrong)

The significance of the Manchester game is just to determine if JRHS would finish 2nd with a loss to Cosby or possibly fall all the way to 3rd and lose the round 1 bye.

In any event - the Thursday game is as significant as it could possibly be.  The fact that JRHS can't even consider looking past Manchester (and Nick Butts) makes this a pretty tough week for them.  Either way their secondary pitchers will need to win a huge game for the Rapids this week whether it is on Tuesday or Thursday is yet to be seen.

BTW More Drama....If Bird should beat Clover Hill and Monacan there remains an outside chance they could come in 3rd by my math.   They would need Manchester to lose both their games (JR and Midlo) to wind up 6-6.   If Bird has an identical 6-6 record to Manchester they will win the tiebreaker against Manchester as they beat them twice in the season.   

Let the games begin, and the weather be nice!  5 day forecast is looking very good with a little heat on Thursday/Friday  Play ball!

Manchester can very well use 5 pitchers this week.. Butts, Powell, Lane and the Mauricio brothers. But I doubt that the Mauricio's will be use to pitch as Saunders rely on their defensive skills. I will be watching the Central district, so please post any updates this week.

Monacan beat Bird, and Clover Hill beat Midlothian yesterday.  Here's how it looks by winning percentage today if the RTD has everything updated.

Cosby 9-2 with JR only game remaining

JR 8-2 with Cosby and Manchester remaining

Manchester 6-4 with JR and Midlo remaining

Clover Hill 5-6 with Bird remaining

LC Bird 4-7 with Clover Hill remaining

Monacan 3-8 with Midlo remaining

Midlothian 2-8 with Manchester and Monacan remaining

It occurred to me that today's Manchester at JR matchup might be the classic "trap game" for JR.  That is, it's only natural to be looking ahead to the Cosby game on Thursday, you figure they'll be holding Roberts back for that, too, and then you add in the fact that they haven't exactly been acing the opposition lately.  If Butts goes out there with his best stuff today, you wonder how it might go.

JR can lose today and still win the regular season title with a win on Thursday.  But a loss today would eliminate the scenario where a win today and a loss Thursday would forge a regular season tie and a Friday playoff.  Sure would be something to see them square off on back-to-back days and then maybe again the following week (and again the week after that maybe?).

Hey Fenway, if Midlothian and Monacan end up tied, do you know who holds the tie-breaker?

Thanks, couldn't remember who won the first match-up.  But wouldn't Midlo and Monacan both be 3 - 9 if Midlo beats Monacan and loses to Manchester?  Then they would have the same record and split the head-to-head, correct?  Basing this on the records posted by Fenway.

JR and Cosby have two loses in the district, correct?  If so, only a loss today and a win Thursday by JR would create the tie breaker.  What am I missing?

If JR were to lose today and win Thursday, they would be tied with Cosby in the standings (3 losses each) but would have swept Cosby in their two games, so JR would get the regular season title.

If JR wins today but loses Thursday, then I think that would give Cosby the title as Cosby would have one less loss in district play.

The other outcomes are obvious -- if JR wins both they win the district; if they lose both Cosby wins.

So I guess there is no hope for a tie breaker game after all.  I was thinking Cosby had another game still to go but now I realize they only have the one left.

This Google docs URL link has the standings as I understand them   It is a public link so anyone can see.   Please don't modify.   Read down for totals.

https://docs.google.com/spread...ldqWkM0U1ZJZEE#gid=0

As I understand it, Midlo is fighting to keep their season alive today.  They can't lose after Monacan's win yesterday.   The heat is on.  They've got to win or they are the 7th seed, and that doesn't work well in a 6 seed format.  Cosby has the luxury of watching JR play Manchester today.   Manchester has skin in the game as they don't want drop down, and Clover Hill is certainly motivated to beat Bird and move up in the seedings.  There is lots to play for over the next few days.

MidloDad- I think it may be more than a trap game for JR.  I think we are going to find out who other than JRoberts can pitch in an important game either today or Thursday. 

Well, things get more and more interesting after Manchester beat James River today, 7-3.

Nick Butts beat JR for the second time this year.  Not a shutout like last time, but pretty darned close.  All runs were earned but 2 were preventable -- one scored from third on a third strike WP with 2 outs, one scored when Butts was curiously left in to face lefty Harry Lee Watson to get one key out on a force at home, then pulled when switch hitter Cullen Large came up; after the reliever walked Large to force in a run while leaving them loaded, Butts then returned to the mound and managed, just barely, to keep Mac Caples in the yard and that was JR's last threat.

Austin McLellan started for JR and was OK, suffered from a key 2B error in the first, though also shares blame for walking the game's first two hitters to trigger a 3-run top of the 1st.  Manchester never trailed after that, and 2 runs that scored in the top of the 7th (after Caples' ball was caught in the RF corner) on a WP and a C throwing error cinched it.

I didn't realize this until Rich Graham told me, but this makes the scenarios as follows:  If JR beats Cosby Thursday, then they end tied for first and JR would win by virtue of having won both head-to-head games.  But if Cosby wins, it takes first, and also sends JR possibly into a tie with Manchester for 2nd, in which case Manchester would get the tie breaker due to having won both head-to-head games against JR.  That means JR could fall from first to third here in the last week, losing not only the automatic bid but also the district tourney bye as well.

BUT, that all depends on Manchester beating Midlothian Thursday, so JR fans will be pulling hard for Midlothian as their fall back hope.  If Midlo wins, JR would take 2nd place even with a loss to Cosby.

Midlodad, you always do a good review.

I got a text that Midlothian beat Manchester with a walk off HR by Zach Ayoub.  Maybe latazaea can give some details on that game.

so that makes Monacan 3-9 and Midlo 3-8 with manchester on the schedule for Thurs.

Monacan and Midlo are 1-1 vs eachother so if Manchester wins thursday there would be a playoff for the 6 seed between Monacan and Midlo correct?

Fun fun.

That's what I have been told, playin game between midlothian and monacan if Manchester beats midlothian.  What a great year.  

Tough spot for McLellan to be in.  He hadn't started a big game in his brief high school career to my knowledge.

Actually McLellan had a pretty darned good start a couple weeks ago against ... was it Bird?  So, they've been bringing him along pretty well.  He wasn't terrible, he just got off on the wrong foot, and Butts held JR down so that rough first inning never got overcome.  If Caples' ball had gone out, we'd be having a different discussion. 

In any event, the team will need him to take these steps going forward, so he's not going to learn any younger.  If they have any hopes for a playoff run, they'll need him and Justin White and Austin Arnold to perform, because as has been detailed elsewhere, the days when you could ride one horse to the finish are gone.

It's not unusual for a team to hit a rough stretch at some point.  The question is whether they get their act together in time to make a playoff run.  If they want to do that, then Thursday is critical because if they lose their bye for the district tournament they may never see the regionals.  One issue is that while the top 4 in the lineup continue to produce, the bottom 5 have kind of disappeared after being a big part of the early success.  Time for them to reappear ... or else.

Midlo Dad.  McLellan started against Midlo.  Other wise your thoughts are spot on.