Draft Day - Size Size Size

quote:

Originally posted by obrady:
#1. Price - 6'6"
M#4. oskos - 6'1"
#6. Detwiler - 6'5"
#8. Weathers - 6'1"
#10. Bumgarner - 6'4"
#11. Aumont - 6'7"

As with last year, a pitcher's size doesn't really seem to matter that much (e.g. guys generally only need to be taller than 6'0' or so).

What I find funny is the talk about how Detweiler needs to put on more weight. Why do people think that matters?

Has anyone seen Casey Fossum or Randy Johnson?

I would argue that mechanics are much more important than one's frame.

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:
What I find funny is the talk about how Detweiler needs to put on more weight. Why do people think that matters?

Has anyone seen Casey Fossum or Randy Johnson?

I would argue that mechanics are much more important than one's frame.

This is where your lack of working knowledge hurts you. He needs to put on weight because of the grind of a long season. I routinely lost 7-10 lbs per year during our college season. It is nothing for pro guys to lose 10-15 lbs per year. If Detwiler were to lose that, he would be in the 160-165 range which is ridiculously skinny (and probably weak) for a 6'4"-6'5" frame.

quote:

Originally posted by redbird5:

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:
What I find funny is the talk about how Detweiler needs to put on more weight. Why do people think that matters?

Has anyone seen Casey Fossum or Randy Johnson?

I would argue that mechanics are much more important than one's frame.

This is where your lack of working knowledge hurts you. He needs to put on weight because of the grind of a long season. I routinely lost 7-10 lbs per year during our college season. It is nothing for pro guys to lose 10-15 lbs per year. If Detwiler were to lose that, he would be in the 160-165 range which is ridiculously skinny (and probably weak) for a 6'4"-6'5" frame.

Have you seen Casey Fossum lately?

There are certain body types (e.g. West Texas guys) that are simply more lean than others.

I agree that proper conditioning is critical, but that's different than raw weight.

Chris,

Who did you recommend your team draft?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

ROFLMMFAO

quote:

Originally posted by Chameleon:
Chris, Who did you recommend your team draft?

One of my favorites was taken, but the other guys I like are still available, including one guy that I think is an 8 out of 8.

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:
Have you seen Casey Fossum lately?

There are certain body types (e.g. West Texas guys) that are simply more lean than others.

I agree that proper conditioning is critical, but that's different than raw weight.

Fossum is 6'0-6'1" and 170....big difference from 6'4" 170

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:
One of my favorites was taken, but the other guys I like are still available, including one guy that I think is an 8 out of 8.

8 or an 80? What was your criteria for this kid being an 8/80?

quote:

One of my favorites was taken, but the other guys I like are still available, including one guy that I think is an 8 out of 8.

Scouts do not throw around perfect scores of 8 or 80..... Do you realize how the stars have to aligne in order for a pitcher to be given an overall 8? This grade would consist of the pitcher having Maddux (8 years ago version) control, Nolan Ryan fastball, Bert Blyleven curve (or a Steve Carlton slider), and a Johan Santana change. A score of 6 or 60 is outstanding. Who is this prospect that you gave a perfect score to... I have seen one pitcher in 20 years get a 70....Im real curious to see tape on an 80.

quote:

Originally posted by redbird5:

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:
One of my favorites was taken, but the other guys I like are still available, including one guy that I think is an 8 out of 8.

8 or an 80? What was your criteria for this kid being an 8/80?

He's a virtual clone of Maddux, from the standpoint of mechanics (which is what I was asked to evaluate).

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:

quote:

One of my favorites was taken, but the other guys I like are still available, including one guy that I think is an 8 out of 8.

Scouts do not throw around perfect scores of 8 or 80..... Do you realize how the stars have to aligne in order for a pitcher to be given an overall 8? This grade would consist of the pitcher having Maddux (8 years ago version) control, Nolan Ryan fastball, Bert Blyleven curve (or a Steve Carlton slider), and a Johan Santana change. A score of 6 or 60 is outstanding. Who is this prospect that you gave a perfect score to... I have seen one pitcher in 20 years get a 70....Im real curious to see tape on an 80.

The 8 out of 8 is based solely on mechanics (which is what I was asked to evaluate), and how he compares to Greg Maddux at the same age. An 8 out of 8 means someone is a virtual clone of Maddux.

The pitcher is David Kopp.

The team I was working with didn't get him, but my Cardinals did.

So I'm a happy man.

quote:

The 8 out of 8 is based solely on mechanics

Can you explain the mechanics grading scale? Are mechanics a new tool that is being graded?

quote:

He's a virtual clone of Maddux, from the standpoint of mechanics

I just watched Kopp's tape and can not find anything that would qualify him as a clone of Maddux...The differences were numerous. With that being said I really liked Kopp's delivery but I dont get the Maddux clone quote.

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
Can you explain the mechanics grading scale? Are mechanics a new tool that is being graded?

The team I'm working with has bought into the idea that there could be a relationship between mechanics and injury risk and that Maddux's mechanics could explain his lack of injuries (and that Prior's mechanics could explain his large number of injuries). This year they asked me to take a look at a bunch of guys and see how they compared to Maddux from the standpoint of mechanics.

Of course, mechanics alone won't determine a pitcher's ultimate success. For example, I think Kip Wells has solid mechanics. His problem is likely between his ears.

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
I just watched Kopp's tape and can not find anything that would qualify him as a clone of Maddux...The differences were numerous. With that being said I really liked Kopp's delivery but I dont get the Maddux clone quote.

There are differences (e.g. arm slot), but I think they are largely cosmetic.

If you look at things like arm action (e.g. lack of Inverted W), hip/shoulder separation, and general timing, Kopp and Maddux are quite similar. I also think that Kopp resembles Dan Haren, who is another one of my favorites (and who IMO is Maddux-like).

In terms of movement and quality of pitches, go to his video on the draft tracker on MLB.com and check out the...

- Fifth pitch at :43 and first pitch to a live batter.
- Sixth pitch at :49 (I love that he isn't afraid to throw inside).
- Tenth pitch at 1:13 (VERY nice movement back over the plate).
- Eleventh pitch at 1:18 (see above).
- Twelfth pitch at 1:25 (see above).
- Thirteenth pitch at 1:34 (see above).

His stuff is reminiscent of Jake Peavy (but with better arm action) and Mariano Rivera.

Mortensen has similar movement, and quality mechanics (he's more Roy Oswalt), which is why I am also thrilled with him.

Can you explain the mechanics grading scale? You said "8 out of 8"... 2-8 grading scale is designed for tools... I'm wondering how you were able to fit mechanics into that scale.

Regarding size… Here are the height and weight of every pitcher selected in the first 5 rounds today (in order). All throw 90 or better. Pick #50 is the best example of a finesse/control type. Guess for the most part size and/or velocity still rule in the draft.

6’6/225 LHP
6’1/210 – Upper 90s
6’5/185 LHP
6’1/205 – Upper 90s LHP
6’1/180 – 98 mph
6’4/215 LHP
6’7/220
6’6/200
6’3/215 LHP
6’3/195
6’6/217
6’5/220 LHP
6’2/170 98 mph
6’6/240 LHP
6’3/205
6’5/195
6’11/250
6’2/195 LHP
6’4/180
6’3/220 LHP
6’5/195 LHP
6’5/250
6’3/185
6’2/200 LHP
6’0/190 finesse pitcher only about 90 top
6’4/200
6’3/255
6’5/230 LHP
6’7/210
6’4/210
6’2/205
6’4/200 LHP
6’2/215
6’4/220
6’2/200
6’7/220
6’0/185 Upper 90s
6’3/190
6’3/200
6’11/245
5’11/210 Upper 90s
6’1/185 LHP
6’2/185
6’6/225
6’2/185
6’2/185 LHP
6’0/185 LHP
6’5/210
6’4/195
6’4/225
6’3/195 LHP
5’11/195 Upper 90s
6’3/175
6’4/210
6’1/190 Upper 90s
6’0/210 Upper 90s
6’6/210
6’2/200
6’3/190
6’2/200 LHP
6’3/210
6’1/205
5’8/200 LHP
6’3/215
6’4/215
6’3/190
6’3/195 LHP
6’3/200
6’3/195
6’4/220
6’0/185 LHP
6’6/240
6’3/200
6’5/215 LHP
6’4/225
6’6/195
6’7/235
6’2/175
6’6/200
6’2/210
6’4/190 LHP
6’1/195 LHP
6’2/200
6’3/197
6’3/205 LHP
6’4/200
6’4/195
6’5/190
5’11/200 upper 90s
6’5/200 LHP
6’3/215
6’2/180

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
Can you explain the mechanics grading scale? You said "8 out of 8"... 2-8 grading scale is designed for tools... I'm wondering how you were able to fit mechanics into that scale.

Keep in mind that I made this up on the fly, so it's still a work in progress.

I started out with a thumbs up/thumbs down scale, but quickly realized that that wasn't fine enough. While some guys have terrible arm action and will probably quickly fall apart, others have borderline arm action and might be able to last a few years or survive but with injuries. IOW, I didn't want to just rule out a Chris Carpenter or Billy Wagner. Instead, I decided to let him my friend what problems might lie ahead. As a result, I went to the 2-8 scale, with a clone of Mark Prior being a 2 and a clone of Greg Maddux being an 8.

I was happy to see that this year I didn't give out any 2s or 3s and only a few 4s. Of course, this could be because my friend was weeding out guys that he knew I'd hate.

I started out at everyone at 8 and then started deducting .5 to 1 point for problems with...

- Arm Action
- Timing
- Throwing too much with the arm (e.g. lack of hip/shoulder separation)
- Striding too open or closed
- Finishing fielding position
- Previous injuries

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Regarding size… Here are the height and weight of every pitcher selected in the first 5 rounds today (in order). All throw 90 or better. Pick #50 is the best example of a finesse/control type. Guess for the most part size and/or velocity still rule in the draft.

I think these numbers say that size does matter, but not as much as people think. It does seem that guys have to be taller than 5'11". That was true but for one exception (one 5'8" guy).

However, if large size was a universal requirement then you would see the floor set at 6'2" or 6'4" rather than at the current 5'11" (which is probably due to Pedro Martinez).

Maybe size is a requirement for some scouts, but it's clearly not a factor for everyone.

quote:

Keep in mind that I made this up on the fly

Really.

quote:

with a clone of Mark Prior being a 2 and a clone of Greg Maddux being an 8......
I started out at everyone at 8 and then started deducting .5 to 1 point for problems with...

Mark Prior landed in a good fielding position, had good timing, and did not land overly open or closed...If you deducted 1 point for every thing else he would be a 5 and not a 2. Please dont attempt to pull the wool over my eyes. This is the most unscientific fabrication of the 2-8 (20-80)scale I have ever seen.

If you want your friend to take you seriously dont try to re-invent the wheel. Baseball people will not be impressed with this, in fact they will hold it against you. This is actual advice and not an attempt to humiliate you. You study pitching alot, but dont force mechanics into your hypothesis that have no bearing on injuries or perfomance...Digest them all the same. Maddux's delivery is perfect....for him.

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
Mark Prior landed in a good fielding position, had good timing, and did not land overly open or closed...If you deducted 1 point for every thing else he would be a 5 and not a 2. Please dont attempt to pull the wool over my eyes. This is the most unscientific fabrication of the 2-8 (20-80)scale I have ever seen.

First, I really don't want to get into the whole Mark Prior mechanics argument again.

Second, the list I gave above wasn't comprehensive. I left out things like landing on the heel and locking the GS knee.

Third, I don't think Prior finished in as good of a fielding position as Maddux. I think that contributed to one of his elbow problems. I also think that Prior's timing was inferior to Maddux's.

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
If you want your friend to take you seriously dont try to re-invent the wheel. Baseball people will not be impressed with this, in fact they will hold it against you. This is actual advice and not an attempt to humiliate you. You study pitching alot, but dont force mechanics into your hypothesis that have no bearing on injuries or perfomance...Digest them all the same. Maddux's delivery is perfect....for him.

I appreciate the advice.

quote:

Third, I don't think Prior finished in as good of a fielding position as Maddux. I think that contributed to one of his elbow problems. I also think that Prior's timing was inferior to Maddux's.

So if someones timing is not the same as Maddux's then they get a minus one, and if they dont end up in the same fielding position as Maddux they also get a minus one? Im not a fan of Priors delivery, but he repeated it very well and ended up in a good fielding position....Did you still give Prior a minus one landing to open or closed?

Pain no one wants to dump on other posters but this is total garbage. I am still not sure what your motives are but I see signs of dilusion. Your post exhibit an embarrasing lack ot knowledge.

Have you watched the draft ? All the top pitchers do what you don't recommend. Poor guys.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Have you watched the draft? All the top pitchers do what you don't recommend. Poor guys.

No they don't.

For example, I love David Price's arm action (and in general). There's absolutely no M/Inverted W to be seen. Instead, what you see is the W that you see in guys like Maddux, Ryan, and Johnson.

The same thing goes for Moskos, Kopp, and many others.

Go the the draft tracker on MLB.com and see for yourself.

I am going to jump in on this because my son was mentioned here.

I know the team who ThePainGuy is involved with and I know why. The team IS very much into pitching injury prevention and interested in his theory on mechanics, my son's film and name was passed on for review and I KNEW that the team was interested in him and his overall mechanics (projected)and has never been injured. Is there a correlation between pitchers who have mechanics similar to maddux not to get injured? These are just theories and some are listening. Since he does not have to divulge to you all that knowledge, cut him some slack, ask questions, debate if you want but stop getting nasty or I will close the thread.
My son's pitching coach told us that his mechanics have helped him to remain injury free. Although he needs improvement in many areas, mechanics IS basically not one of them. I am not sure if he is similar to Maddux, but I will tell you PainGuy is not the first to notice.

BTW, team is large market, VERY large market team.

This past weekend we got a chance to have some long chats with scouts (from 3-4 different teams) and their criteria in the end comes down to command, secondary pitches,velocity, physical attributes, makeup. Velocity gets you attention, but not the first criteria. If you have pitchers who all have the same attributes I mentioned but the difference is height and projectibility, guess who most likely will get their teams first pick. That's just the way it is. I can't get over for this year's draft my son was SMALL compared to many of the pitchers drafted early.

As far as putting on weight, my impression of what ThePainGuy said means conditioning weight.

Thanks.

Pain describe your W and M exactly.

From what I understand, and I could certainly be wrong, it is one individual from the Mets who doesn't want it to get out that he's doing this.

(Oops, got a PM indicating that it probably isn't the Mets. That was only a guess someone else posted that I was passing on anyways.)

TPM,
Just looked at your son's mechanics and they are fairly similar to my son's. However your son throws about 12 or 13 mph faster than my 15yo and is listed at about 1 1/2" taller and 25 pounds heavier. Just a tiny difference. Bet David has good armside run on his fastball given his arm action is similar to my son's.

(Just in case anyone is wondering I'm comparing my son's mechanics to DK's and not vice versa. DK is an accomplished pitcher already with a great future ahead of him and it would be far beyond any reasonable expectations for my son to do anything near what DK has done.)

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
Bet David has good armside run on his fastball given his arm action is similar to my son's.

It's really nice.

Check out the pitches that he throws to live batters (versus his first few warm-up tosses) in his scouting video on MLB.com.

Very nasty movement reminiscent of Rivera or Peavy (but with better arm action than Peavy).

Chris,
Old eyes here. It looked like armside run, but I couldn't be sure from the video. I'm just assuming that because he has a relatively low arm slot and releases with the arm well extended from the body.

BTW, Rivera has nice movement but the opposite of armside run as he throws a cutter.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
Chris, Old eyes here. It looked like armside run, but I couldn't be sure from the video. I'm just assuming that because he has a relatively low arm slot and releases with the arm well extended from the body.

Watch the pitch at :41 (FB) versus the lefty. Notice how it comes in looking like it's going to be inside and then moves back over the plate. Plus it's coming in at 94. That's a very nasty pitch.

Watch the pitch at 1:11 (FB) versus the righty. It's basically the same pitch as above. It was a miss high, but I literally LOL whenever I see it because it moves so much.

Watch the pitch at 1:25 (FB). This reminds me a lot of Jake Peavy or Daisuke Matsuzaka.

As Borat would say, "Very Nice!!!"

When I was looking at David, I didn't even look at his stuff because all I had were 3B and 1B views and I was just looking at his mechanics. However, I figured it was there based on his arm action.

I like this type of movement because it means he's pronating through the release point, which should take some of the load off of his UCL and help to protect his elbow.

BTW, I have taught my son to do the same thing with the ball and, while he doesn't throw very hard (or nearly as well), he doesn't give up many solid hits. People either hit it in the wrong part of the bat, strike out swinging, or take pitches that look like balls but end up as strikes.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
BTW, Rivera has nice movement but the opposite of armside run as he throws a cutter.

I haven't seen much of Rivera, given that I live in St. Louis, but from what little I have seen of him he can move the ball either way.

BORAT is a baseball guy?

Now I am worried very deeply

The problem with TPG theory is it is based on one pitching model. My Great Grandmother lived to be 103 and her diet consisted of mostly bread and jelly. Is sugar and starch the key to longevity ? Probably as good a link as trying to compare what mechanics work for one individual and apply it to many others. Why Maddux and not Ryan ?

Nothing like 1 1/2 " slice Italian bread smothered in honey, jelly and peanut butter.

I don't think you can compare the timing of two pitchers and conclude anything useful. My younger son is very flexible in the waist. He can fully rotate his hips while keeping his shoulders completely closed. This means he can keep his shoulders closed longer into his stride than can pitchers without that much flexibility. Thus, the timing of his shoulder rotation will be different than for those other pitchers. It's not better or worse - it's the timing that works for him.

Am I missing something?

I saw this

quote:

My Great Grandmother lived to be 103 and her diet consisted of mostly bread and jelly. Is sugar and starch the key to longevity ?

and I couldn't resist

From my favorite comic, I think you'll like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNGWn-aWn5g

7:41-9:58

And for you kiddies out there, be warned: swear at 8:52 gee gasp

The whole thing on water is pretty funny too. Off topic? Perhaps, but, everyone could use a little laughter now and again.

Very funny X... liked the water bit as well.

quote:

So if someones timing is not the same as Maddux's then they get a minus one, and if they dont end up in the same fielding position as Maddux they also get a minus one? Im not a fan of Priors delivery, but he repeated it very well and ended up in a good fielding position....Did you still give Prior a minus one landing to open or closed?

Bump...I still cant figure out on your grading scale how prior is a 2....

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
Bump...I still cant figure out on your grading scale how prior is a 2....

It's a relative scale that is admittedly not scientific (but that gets the job done).

Mark Prior has the worst, and most obviously bad, mechanics of any ML pitcher that I can think of.

Other candidates for 2s are...

- Kerry Wood
- Bobby Madritsch

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:
Mark Prior has the worst, and most obviously bad, mechanics of any ML pitcher that I can think of.

Other than the inverted "W" which you've already identified, what else about his mechanics do you not like?

quote:

Originally posted by thepainguy:

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
Bump...I still cant figure out on your grading scale how prior is a 2....

It's a relative scale that is admittedly not scientific (but that gets the job done).

Mark Prior has the worst, and most obviously bad, mechanics of any ML pitcher that I can think of.

Other candidates for 2s are...

- Kerry Wood
- Bobby Madritsch

What about Eric Gagne?

quote:

It's a relative scale that is admittedly not scientific (but that gets the job done).

Is it actually a relative scale that "gets the job done", or just guys who make the M.... Can you give examples of deliveries you dont like of pitchers with scap loads that dont make an M.

quote:

Originally posted by deemax:
Can you give examples of deliveries you dont like of pitchers with scap loads that dont make an M.

I'm fine with scap loading as long as the elbows stay below the level of the shoulders.

That's what you see in the mechanics of...

- Greg Maddux
- Nolan Ryan
- Roger Clemens
- Tom Seaver
- Sandy Koufax