Draft questions

No information for Catcherdad, but did want to bump this along as I am just plain curious of real life outcomes and thoughts.  Just for fun, have talked with my 2017 about what it would or should take to forego college ball.  Some folks have said you need "life changing" money, however I suggest that you need a decent chunk of change such that you can comfortably survive the next five years - think of $250M as something like $50M/yr for the next 5 years.  The upside is you get to play professional ball.  The downside is you have to play profession ball sometimes at very low levels where the mental adjustment, especially for kids coming out of high school, can be tremendous. 

Some high school graduates do a skip year (I belive Harvard will reserve your spot for one year to allow you to "goof off" for 12 months) - couldn't one look at pro baseball as part of the journey - if it doesn't work out, go back to school using the college tuition included in the MiLB contract (may not pay for Harvard, but will pay for you to get a degree).  I'm not talking about having to choose between a weak shot at pro ball and an Ivy League education but more like pro ball versus state university.

We have heard some similar things from scouts regarding our son.  I would say that if he is drafted lower than the 10th round, which is highly likely, it would be better for him to go to school.  I say that because after the 10th round, making MLB is much less likely.  Therefore, keep honing your skills, but get that education that you will need.  On the signing bonus, $250,000 is a lot of money, but you will probably lose 40% to taxes.  For that amount, I again would say go to school. 

On the mental aspect of Rookie Ball, I would say it depends on your son.  We have a friend who was drafted in the 4th round two years ago, and he has had a difficult time adjusting.  Girlfriend, being the young guy amongst older guys, being away from home, struggling for the first time, not being the best guy, etc.  All that being said, I don't think my son would have as hard of a time adjusting with the girlfriend, away from home issues.  The struggling for the first time in his life would be difficult.

Overall, I think going to a nice D-1, and getting 3 years of maturity, honing your skills, getting an education, far outweigh going the Rookie Ball route.

Very difficult, in fact impossible to answer.

How much money? Each individual has to determine that.

Bonus pool will have a bearing on what type of offer he gets. 

One thing that people don't always understand... When an area scout mentions a projected round or rounds, that is simply his opinion.   While that scout may try hard to get the kid drafted in that area, it doesn't mean it will actually happen.

There could be as money as a thousand or more kids in the country, plus Canada and Puerto Rico, projected to go between rounds 10 and 20.  Yet only 300 will actually be selected in those rounds.

Sounds like your son is getting serious interest and that is great.  I've been involved in this stuff for so long that certain things seem to be consistent.  One of those things that happens every year... There are many more very disappointed people after the draft than there are happy people.

You will have plenty of time to sort things out once the draft gets here.  In the meantime you can determine what that number needs to be.  I know it is exciting times, but be prepared for a surprise, hopefully a good surprise.  Best of luck!

Thank you to the above for advice/experiences and good wishes.

It is a great asset to voice a question on this site and get educated responses.

One thing that is different and nice about this site is everyone applauds and pulls for everyone else's son.

Oh Yes, we know many people are disappointed come June.

We know of a 2014 in our state who publicized discussions projecting 5-10 round and he was not drafted at all.

Son knows he has come a long way in the past 12 months+ and has a lot more hard work ahead to hope to achieve his dream & goals.

Just keep in mind that not being drafted may not mean what many people think it does when it involves some players. Not being drafted may have much more to do with signability than it does athletic ability.

With the bonus pool system, after the 10th round any bonus over $100,000 (I think that's still the number) counts against the team's soft cap.  Those aren't big numbers in the grand scheme of things, so I could see a team going to $250K for someone they liked, but it is part of the equation. I can find some post-round 10 signing bonus numbers for individual teams (some on perfectgame.org), but I don't know where you can find a complete list.

Good luck.

Catchers Dad;

Is your son ready for pro baseball? How do you find out? Do you have a minor League team locally? Offer to catch BP or bullpen.

Get to know the pro players - do an interview. Keep notes. So you can use for your College term papers. When completed "look in the mirror". Am I ready???

When you have the money, Your best consultant is the CPA. Remember you are buying a car for 140% over retail.

Bob

Good suggestions all.

Thank you

While one size doesn't fit all, unless your HS student is a top pick in the draft, unable to handle college learning, or not on any financial aid (academic, Pell, Hope, athletic, etc.) which makes college attendance unaffordable, a clear understanding of the next four years, and the trade-offs which are made, should convince most parents to urge college first, pro second.

Start with your individual kid; ignore the baseball skill aspect initially and focus on the person he is.

Can he live away from home with only baseball to amuse him? Why? Because he will spend the entire first year in a hot hot climate with other 18 year olds. They play baseball seven days a week beginning at 7:00 and ending at 5:00. Ninety percent of the time they are at the field they are doing nothing - literally nothing (sitting in the stands pretending to watch a game, chasing after occasional foul balls, scratching themselves, telling lies to the other kids). They bus the kids to the field from the hotel - where they live two to a hotel room - and perhaps are within walking distance of a mall for entertainment.

There is no pay unless he's assigned to a Rookie league - and the pay is 1k per month, from which clubbies fees, rent, and SS are deducted. He has to forage for one meal a day - the club provides two- do his laundry, arrange his hair cuts, deal with guys who are tense all the time (tempers get very short with so little diversions), and deal with the feeling that baseball is more like work and less like fun, and homesickness. For you military vets, think of basic training, without weekend leave.

Every day until September is like this. Then fall instructional ball - a probability - beginning in mid-September - and replay the above.

Then the "kid" arrives back in your house October, and you have the pleasure of hosting him 24/7 until ST in March. He's not the HS boy you sent away a mere four months before; he's a professional baseball player. As such, he needs to eat, workout, get baseball lessons, several hours every single day. And he needs to sleep and do his diversions (hunt, video games, fish, golf, whatever). What he doesn't have time for is a job - because he already has one. He really needs to workout. Because the competition to get out of complex ball is tough and he needs to get out of complex ball ASAP. If his game is not advancing every day, you can bet that there are others who are advancing their game.

The family all needs to be on the same page here, because it will appear from many perspectives as if he is doing nothing except his diversions. You need to understand that while he would have worked maybe three hours a day in the college offseason, he now works out closer to five every day - this will be the life of your child/man for the next three years.

Turning now to the baseball skills aspect.

At any moment he could get cut/injured. His US amateur status is over. In all events he will have access to the MLB scholarship fund. This fund pays out, under certain circumstances and with a specified limit, a sum of money - taxable by the way - which once tapped must be drained within a set period of time (not very long actually).

In the draft round OP indicated, the player has a shot of getting out of complex ball in his third pro season (second full). The professional advantage is a full season over a kid going to college. In other words, if you are drafted, it's not going to be in the slot rounds.  You are being told you are viewed as a guy whose ceiling is MLB and whose floor is quite unknown; just like a college guy - the difference is your baseball development is pro style v. College style. The draft is populated with guys who went to college so college style doesn't seem a detriment.

I think most pro parents will agree that failure is part of the pro game. It's really what you do when failure occurs which measures the true love a player has for the game. The overwhelming majority of HS players who are considered in the draft have never experienced failure; they view the baseball world from the top of the mountain range they inhabit. The next level of ball - whether college or pro - will bring failure. The question is where is the kid best placed to deal with this inevitable consequence of competing.

I know my kid could not have dealt with the magnitude and frequency of baseball failure - without a corresponding opportunity to experience success in other areas. College gives that opportunity; even with collassal baseball failure, you have a full social life, learning opportunity, etc. You fail in proball, until you train your mind to leave failure in the rear view mirror, you can never escape from the only "yard stick" which matters.

In short, a family's default should be college. Don't look for ways to go pro from HS. just enjoy the ride, the attention, the fruition of all those years of collective dreams -then hopefilly you can enjoy it again in college.

Full disclosure: I did not feel this way - nor believe others - when we dealt with this issue out of HS. Baseball did not evolve they way it was supposed to in college. The college fail safe was a good safety net. But the ride nevertheless has continued.

Gooseegg, thanks for the detailed reply, very informative

Gooseegg, mine is a HS Sr and what you said above is exactly what I have gleaned from here and elsewhere in the last 9 months. You worded it so well!

Gooseegg, very well said and absolutely accurate. A must read for those who will not be drafted in the slotted rounds (and maybe some slotted players too). It takes a special player to end up successful right out of HS. 

+1 Gooseegg

Goose egg

You summarized my sons experience as a player who went pro out of HS.

Its not a easy life style.

In hind site he feels players should go to college first ... Since both the hs pick and the college pick hit double A about the same time.

Goosegg:

That is an extraordinarily personal perspective. As I read it, I was sure I would come to the part where you said you arrived at these views from first-hand experience. Is that true?

I ask because ... while it's clearly a perspective rooted in something, it's also way, way focused on the negatives. Help me here: If it's that bad, why should any HS player elect pro ball? Obviously, as you say up front ...  big money is a reason, but even then, you paint a really negative picture here. 

I'm not challenging you; I'm honestly curious: Is there a flip side? Because I know a few young men who've gone in the draft out of HS -- and while much of what you say is true, it's not the whole truth. There's a whole different perspective, rooted in a love of the game, chasing a dream, doing without and understanding why ... etc.

Right?

During my son's first season of Short-season A ball, I went  to see his team play one weekend. During lunch the first day of my visit, he said to me, "Dad, everything is great. I'm so glad to be here, and it's going really well. However, now that I've experienced pro ball, I can't tell you how glad I am that I waited. I get on the bus and see some of these young faces, and it's always the first thought I have."

His senior year in high school we'd had a number of scouts talk with us about his being picked "somewhere around the 10th round." After discussing it as a family, he began telling each that his desire to go to college was greater than 10th-round money would overcome.

After his own experience and after seeing a number of his college teammates experience varying degrees of success in professional baseball, he's a firm believer in college being the preferred route for many; including quite a few who sign contracts out of high school.

P.S. He was late for lunch the day we met. The road-weary team bus had broken down on its way from Eugene, Oregon to Yakima, Washington. That was the second time it had broken down in the season's first month. Does that sound like it's straight out of "Bull Durham" or what?!  It's a really glamorous life.  

Nothing is easy about professional baseball.  While some adjust well, many others would be better off going to college.  

Bottom line, it is an individual decision.  Every player and parent needs to make their decision based on their situation.

There are many that might have been better off going to college.  Then there is the other side where some have gone to college and that backfired.

Obviously the most important thing is the round and the money.  There are not many early round guys spending more than one season in Rookie Ball.  A few of the best even make the Big Leagues before they would even be eligible for the draft out of college.

Everyone's situation is different.  Life changing money to some might be $50,000 while for others there is no amount that would change their life. Some are excellent students that will do well in college, others might struggle.  Some play because of their love for the game, others play because of the money involved.

I will say this... If a player is drafted and offered very little to sign, college is "usually" the best option.  It keeps the dream alive and at the same time it helps prepare you for when the dream dies.  But never would I second guess someone's decision to chase their dream.  I even can respect that because some play life so safe that any challenge frightens them.

We all know about life in the minor leagues.  Sure it isn't easy, but some do it for many years.  Most do it until they are told they can't do it.  It must not be so bad for those guys or more would just quit on their own. Still there are many in the scouting community and in professional baseball that will tell you college is the best way to go.  A players first goal should be to play college baseball.  But we are not all the same.

And no doubt about it, those that go to college and still end up playing professional baseball also deserve a lot of respect. They have accomplished something special and that sure wasn't easy either.

It's usually not about the money for money's sake. It's what the money represents. The club investing a lot of money in the player with a bonus means more. He will get opportunities internally that others will not. Bubba Starling is one of the worst players in professional baseball yet he will get many, MANY opportunities that players better than him will not - simply because he was paid many millions of dollars.

When you think of it that way, college is almost always the better choice, unless grades or other things are a major factor.

The son of one of my son's coaches was drafted (3rd round) a few years back.  He also had scholarship to a school he could not have gotten into without baseball.  The money he got was good but the two other things they told me swayed the son to sign was (1) they believed that he was mature enough physically and mentally to handle it and (2) they apparently negotiated to be part of some MLB scholarship program that pays for tuition to college after the playing days were over.

Thank you all for great information. This site is really a treasure trove of info. 

Poor Bubba, he is kinda everyone's example right now! Ha!

Those two observations could probably be made about the large majority of high schoolers who sign. Unfortunately for many, it's often one thing to think you know something going in and another to know what you know after you've actually experienced it.

With respect to the tuition plan, Goosegg alludes to the restrictions and limitations imposed upon it. Couple those with the statistical fact that a relatively small percentage of former professional players who had it available to them ever use it, and you begin to understand why front offices view it as a virtually free bone to toss out there when negotiating with draftees.

Having said all of this, I couldn't agree more with PGStaff about the highly individual nature of each player's/family's decision. However, having seen what I've seen over the years, I wish more players who sign out of high school had chosen the college route from the perspective of their long-term future.

For every Bryce Harper there are many Matt Bush, Bubba Starling, Donovan Tates'.

As part of their analysis, parents should take a look at Baseball-reference.com's draft data base. You can see for yourself the careers of every single drafted player since the draft began. You can sort the data base to look only at HS, JC, college players. This will give you empirical data and the LIKELY career path of your player. (For virtually every parent, however, the LIKELY career path of their kid will be discounted - because their kid is different; their kid is better skill wise; their kid is more mature; their kid is smarter. Their kid will start in college and become an All-American as a freshman; their kid will move up the pro ranks faster, etc.  And for a few - very few - that will be true. But since the overwhelming majority of D1 players never get drafted and because the overwhelming majority of those drafted will never have a decent period of time in MLB, the DATA is the only real authority; everything else are wishes, dreams, aspirations, beliefs and delusions.)

If you were to go to a blackjack table with these odds, how much would you bet? Your car? Your house? Your kids future? Or your mad money?

Here are some very real facts.

If you sign out of HS you cannot quit until your initial contract is over (at least five years). If you quit, there is no MLB college scholarship. If you quit, a prorated portion of the bonus must be repaid (and remember the kid paid taxes on the entire amount in the year it was received). 

If if a kid (like mine) used baseball to get into a school he could not otherwise have matriculated, kiss that school goodbye when it's time to attend college. (In our case the school would have held his spot open for two years; after that he would have needed to reapply - with stale scores, grades, etc. If he attended the school and then signed after his junior year, his spot would remain open forever - so no need to reapply.)

If you assume the LIKELY career will end short of MLB in let's say when the kid (no longer a kid) is 26, realize that the MLB scholarship money - with its deductions and college inflation baked in - will cover well less then one half of the total cost of school. Where will the 100k to cover the four year shortfall come from? Will your son want to grind to a degree; will he have picked up responsibilities which diminish his ability to grind to a degree?

If your kid had a decent college career, chances are he will not go all the way to MLB. If he had a great college career he has a remote shot. (There are exceptions; but collegiate success is an indicator the kid has at least a chance, while college failure is a red flag.)

MILB ball looks to me as if the players lives are in a sort of suspended animation (and this is for all players not just the HS ones) - except for baseball; intellectual development is non-existent, girls don't hang around the complexes, there are no opportunities (due to finances, time constraints, boredom, etc.) to explore new areas of interest, no life options other then baseball are pursued, the "player" becomes the kids identity often to the exclusion of everything else.

Where will your child have the opportunity to meet his future wife; to learn about relationships; to experience heartbreak and love? Yes, you can do that in MILB, buts it's much easier to explore that part of growing up in an environment where everyone is passing through the same issues.

And, to me a touchstone of being a parent, is looking over the horizon as far into the future as I can, and to advise my kid on what I think I see. I personally took almost a decade to finish my undergraduate degree so I have no philosophical opposition to non-traditional college paths. To me, for want of a better term, an "exit strategy" which kicks in when/if baseball ends is critically important for your kid. So, from my perspective, the risk/reward ration skews heavily to college.

I keep track of as many boys as I can from my sons HS years - both baseball and non-baseball kids. From his scout team (perhaps 100 kids over the years he played), well over half were drafted; maybe a dozen signed out of HS. Some of those have advanced to AA; some of the college kids have advanced to AA also. Some of the HS kids have already been released; a few quit - same with the college players. None of the HS kids have any real college credits; all the college kids have credits; a few have even graduated (Stanford,UCLA, Princeton).

While here is no cookie cutter right answer; the sales pitch of proball tends to gloss over the real issue: what is the best position for your kid to succeed in life - and while baseball is some life, life is more than baseball.

Durn Goose....this one is better than your previous comment!!!!!!!!!

Good posts all, and I won't repeat the good points, but will add one that has not yet been mentioned.

In the non-baseball world, only a little over 50% of all HS grads attempt a 4-year college, and only about 27% ultimately gain a 4-year degree.  And that counts many who don't go straight out of high school.

The kinds of folks who post here are often the attentive and involved parents who have raised their kids with the mindset that after high school comes college.  So we tend to think in terms of whether the trade-off is worth it, etc.

But understand, nearly half the kids out there aren't heading to college -- some aren't even eligible by NCAA standards -- and some of them are pretty darned good baseball players.  For them, a 100k bonus is the best post-HS option available and an easy choice.

There are also, out of those who do go to college, a lot of kids who really have no interest in school, who go just because they are floating along on the stream of life according to the plan their parents mapped out for them, or who think they're going to love college but then, when they get there, don't.  For these kids, the option of going pro, maybe with a scholarship plan as part of the deal, is very enticing.  FYI, a lot of these kids, absent baseball, end up in that 23-25% cohort who start college but never get their degree, so they aren't missing quite as much if they do go pro.

Prepster's son was the kind of kid who was too smart not to go to college and get his degree.  And he got one from a "public ivy," a degree that will open doors throughout his adult life.  (The college baseball career he enjoyed was also one that would be the envy of nearly every other player anywhere.)  Like my own son, whatever dreams Prepster Jr. had of an MLB career got smashed by the reality of an injury.  I don't think anyone can question whether Prepster's son made the right choice -- FOR HIM. 

But your son may or may not be in that situation.  If your son is a non-qualifier, and is wondering how he'll pay his rent after he graduates, then a 100k signing bonus is a great opportunity.  The odds of getting much more than that are not good; the percentage of guys who have lasting MLB careers after being drafted in rounds 10+ is not very high.  But most of us start out adult life in debt, so having the after-tax portion of 100k in the bank is not too shabby at all.

All that being said, if your son is a strong student, and if baseball is helping him to get a strong academic as well as financial opportunity in college, it would be a rare player whom I would advise to give that up for 100k and an early start in the minors, for all the reasons stated by others above.

Just to be clear, I couldn't agree any more with MidloDad's comments quoted here and am always glad to see the player he describes seize the opportunity to fulfill the dream of a lifetime. Of course, I also don't begrudge the ones chosen in the first several rounds who sign contracts; despite the fact that they would also have done well in a college classroom. An obvious example from the last few years: Rick Porcello...and others like him.

Rather, it's the "tweeners" who will always be of concern to me...the ones who settle for something less than they'd hoped for in the way of signing bonus, but who would also have benefited from and contributed to a college experience. The ones who rationalize their way into the decision.

I saw the following statistic the other day. It claims to provide the number associated with the origin of starting MLB players this season:

From 4 year college programs     397

Straight from HS                      204

International                            197

2 year college                           69

If accurate, this suggests that, proportionally speaking,  the dream of a lifetime is still very present for players who chose to get several years of college under their belts.

Goosegg,

All I can say is my thoughts exactly.  Everything you have posted is 100% accurate. Great posts by Prepster and PG as well. I can only add one thing, your son will have to grow up pretty quickly signing out of HS

As most of you know son was a high pick out of college. He turned down an offer from the Yankees out of HS.  Because of his commitment of almost a full college scholarship he was never drafted.  

As mature as my son was in HS, going pro out of HS would have been a huge mistake.  He needed the discipline and guidance that is missing in professional ball.  

Its very difficult to understand exactly what you would be missing if one never attended college.  Ask any player that has experienced both and i would bet they would say that going to college first would remain their first choice.

Bonus money makes a difference. If it is about the money go to college. However before one signs on the dotted line think about if your son is ready to go to work and will he be happy in the middle of nowhere maybe for the next 1-3 years AND will you be willing to financially support your son.

E60 did a great piece on Matt Harvey, aka The Dark Knight.  

Turning down over a million out of HS, he almost flunked out of UNC. He was lucky he had a coach who really got on his case.  College isnt for everyone, but it did make Harvey more money in the draft and he was on the 25 man roster when his injury occurred.

I think you are getting some very honest feedback from people who have no reason to tell you otherwise.

Everyone has different expectations.  However, IMO after awhile the love of the game, chasing a dream, etc gets old.  All of a sudden you have been in milb for 4-5 years and you never even got picked up on the 40 man and you still are under contract with the same team.

You might even have a family to support and thats pretty tough on milb salary even in AAA.

I agree with you that tweeners have the toughest choice.  Understand that I am not advocating any particular path but in making a determination one thing to consider is what are the options if the path I take doesn't work out.

It is not unusual for students to take gap years before they start college especially when they are undecided on what to study, just not ready for college or just want work experience before they go.   Even if a tweener took the shot at pro-ball, nothing prevents him from going back to college.  Many people I know took 1- 5 years off before getting their college degrees or professional degrees. Granted it was tougher for them later on than it would have been had they gone earlier (mostly due to lack of monetary support from their parents), but they did it and most of these people didn't take gaps years to follow their dreams, they just weren't ready for college.

Here are some questions:

What is the percentage of players who get drafted out of college who got drafted out of high school but chose to go to college to play?  Do they usually improve their draft rounds?  

I think the answer is yes in most cases, college improves the draft opportunity.

Because of the newer draft rules and slot money, most first rounders out of HS do sign.

So yes this would be more about the tweeners.

We can all come up with individual cases that worked out well or worked out poorly.

Sometimes that started poorly end up working well and vise versa.

There are statistics regarding the odds of making it to the top.  I suppose there are statistics regarding making it to the top in most any field. However, those statistics are somewhat meaningless to some individuals.  Luckily there are things that change an individuals odds.

Be a first round pick, they are telling you they expect you to play in the Big Leagues. Your odds are pretty good.

The PG All American Game, formerly the Aflac Game, started in 2003.  The first draft those players were eligible for was 2004.  In most cases the numbers tell us that players drafted in 2004 will take 5-6 years to make it to MLB.  The last All American Game was in 2014 and those players are eligible for this years draft.  Those players whether they sign or go to college are/were 6 years away from MLB in most every case. So if we go back six years from 2014 we are at 2009. For the most part this would be the year for 2009 grads.

So, using this logic most all the ML players that participated in this All American gathe during the first 5 years.  To date there are over 150 of those that have played in the Major Leagues.  While some got there earlier, Porcello, Harper, Heyward, Upton, etc., most were within the 6 year time frame.  Many were first rounders, some were not.

Then knowing that being a first round pick greatly enhances a players odds in making it, the facts show that the odds of being a first round pick if you simply played in that one game are about 1 in 3.  A little over 1 out of every 3 All American players ended up becoming a first round pick.  The numbers can be checked out easily.

My point is, we can't generalize the numbers or odds.  The odds are much different from one player to the next.  Two players mentioned by "Goosegg" Matt Bush and Donavan Tate both played in the All American Game.  They are examples of what can happen.  However, these young guys had some problems and those problems were going to surface no matter if it was in baseball or in college. They actually became draft mistakes, but still received a pile of money.

I would say this... For most young guys, college is easily the best and safest choice.  For any given individual, the best choice is an unknown until it's all over. OPP's son signed out of HS in the 20th round or so.  He has had a long lucrative career in MLB.  What changed the odds for him?  Some kids just defy all the so called odds, while most simply add more data to the mix.

I don't want to come off as a know it all, but there are certain HS kids I'm absolutely positive will play in the Big Leagues.  Then again, some because of injury or character issues or other reasons don't get there.  Some get there and it is a total surprise.  I just know the odds for one is not the odds for another.

So in the end, I will say this. For those that want their cake and eat it too, College is the answer provided you can survive in college.  That said, there are many that don't survive in college. Nothing is fool proof, it is your decision. For some it can be a very tough one.

Zach Duke is a lefty, that right there increases his odds!

Good stuff PG!

This makes sense to me. Scouting -- that is, projecting the future development -- of 21 year-olds or 22 year-olds should produce, on average, more accuracy (by that I mean the actual development comes closer to matching the expected development) than scouting 18 year olds. Imagine if the draft was for 16 year olds (like the international signing rules are) -- there would be a lot more draft "mistakes."

Me, too, 2019Dad; for the very reasons you mention.

Another thought as I first saw them: that the 4-year college figure is inflated some by the very fine JUCO players who transfer to a 4-year program and go pro from there. 

I think the typical young male athlete will be better prepared, if only from the standpoint of maturity, for the pro lifestyle if he waits until he's 21 or 22.  And by then, he'll also have a far better idea of whether that's what he really wants with his life.

Anyone who gets an offer like the one Porcello got in 2007 should take it.  But those guys are few and far between.  For every Porcello there are literally hundreds of guys weighing one or two fewer zeroes and, by any dispassionate economic analysis, the very great odds are that college is their better option.

Though I very much favor the college route, there are a number of things to consider beyond what has been mentioned here. It is a topic discussed often over the years here.  This is very much a pro college group and that includes myself.  I just think everything should be considered looking at both sides of the issue. I will admit, that it irks me a little when I read comments that are so drastically negative about professional baseball.  It makes me wonder if there is anything at all good about playing professional baseball.  What if there was no professional baseball?  What if kids didn't like baseball?  

Anyway, here is a few other things to consider.

The vast majority of college players drafted in rounds that equate to money and actually making it to the top, involve college juniors and in some cases age eligible sophomores.

Because of the latest agreement, college seniors are getting drafted more than ever.  Reason being they have no leverage. So most college players that sign pro contracts have not received their degree.  The seniors that sign also may not yet have their degree and very few of them will get any significant amount of signing money.  Even those drafted in the early rounds will get a lot less than HS or college juniors drafted in the same round.

So it's always beneficial to have some college out of the way, but getting that degree is not always that easy for everyone. Especially if they spend a significant amount of time in professional baseball.

It certainly is true that college players, especially those at a high level, have more of a track record and are sometimes easier to project.  However, the truth is that the best HS players usually end up being the best college players.  Players do get missed and slip through the cracks, but most of the best ones stick out in the crowd. College misses a lot of the very best ones, just look at who the best in baseball are.  That list includes an awful lot of kids that signed out of high school.  Then again, there is always more risk involved when drafting the HS kids.

If 16 year olds could sign in this country, there would be a lot more mistakes made, but they still wouldn't miss that much on the best ones.  Every year there are 16 year olds that would be drafted in the early rounds if they were eligible for the draft.  It would all filter out in the end, just look at all the Dominican players that sign at 16.  A lot of them have made it, but we don't here about all those that last only a year or two.

The one biggest difference I see regarding this discussion.  Years ago all (most all) the professional baseball people would argue on behalf of signing and getting your career started.  Now days, many of these same people understand how beneficial college can be and even lean in that direction with their own kids.  That speaks volumes to me.  Of course, they don't feel that way about the early rounds picks they want to sign. In most cases, not all, the round and the money dictates the choice.  In some cases it even eliminates any thought of not signing.  

Often baseball is mentioned as a sport for the affluent these days.  I understand why, but it is also a way for a talented poverty stricken kid to have a chance in life. Where else, can a kid that has nothing sign for a lot of money out of high school?  What good does a partial baseball scholarship do for someone that has nothing?  There are kids and families out there where $20,000 is life changing money. Maybe even could be considered life saving money to some.  At least, they have a chance, for them it is no risk, it is a chance. Even if they don't make it to the top as a player, they might still end up with a career in baseball.

I know the above doesn't pertain to most people on this message board.  But it is reality and baseball has helped many young people over the years.  In fact, I think it is a big selling point for baseball.  

There is a ML player (all star) that had nothing (I mean nothing) when he grew up.  He was a star athlete at every sport. Had a football scholarship to a major college.  Baseball was basically his third best sport behind football and basketball.  We knew that if he were drafted he was going to sign for whatever was offered.  He simply couldn't afford college even with a full scholarship.  Anyway, he was one that made it big and is now a very wealthy man (extremely wealthy).  I know those type stories are uncommon, but it sure is something special when they do happen.

Once again, the right choice can be different from one individual to the next.  For most it is college. For some it is pro.  For many it is both!  Some simply won't be happy if they pass up the chance to sign.  Others could care less.  Some won't be happy if they pass up college.  Some could care less.  I think happiness is very important.  I have made many decisions based on seeking happiness.  It's never the decision, it's always the results that prove if the decision was good or bad. The great thing is, you can overcome most bad decisions that aren't life threatening or law breaking.

PG, I could swear I saw an article on your site yesterday about HS vs College players and the draft, but now I can't find it to save my life.  It was very old (2009?) and from what I can recall, it compared two draft's worth of 1st round college players (48 total) to their original HS draft position before they elected to attend their respective schools.  I believe the highest player picked originally went in the 4th round, while many of these players were undrafted out of HS.

The overall impression I got from the article was that virtually every player on the list improved their draft stock after 3 years of college.

It would be interesting to see an updated version of that article, say using the past two drafts and comparing those players to the HS versions of their draft slots.