Drafted out of HS vs Drafted out of D3.

I am not sure of your question.

Very few position guys drafted out of HS make a ml roster.  The  trouts and harpers do, but they say it takes about 3000 at bats to be ml ready.

That's why college position players get drafted pretty high.

Reading over your topic, keep in mind that the focus on most D3 programs is not to develop pro players?

I assume, while not always the case, generally they come from those type of programs.

The high school position players who are drafted and signed are D1 prospects. The earlier they are drafted the more likely they are top D1 prospects. The scouts also saw them facing a lot of 87-92 With a handful of 93-95 in summer showcases.

When a position player comes out of D3 ball chances are he's twenty-two and playing short season. If he doesn't develop and advance quickly he's going to be twenty-five by the time he gets to AA. If he has one mediocre year of development he could be twenty-six in AA ball. I've been told being twenty-six in AA is inviting to be released.

Not to mention most D3 players signing out of college are going to be senior signs with no leverage. 

Exactly. Very few HS drafted position players are not D1 or superior D2/JC prospects (Tampa, Chipola, etc).

Age-adjusted performance is a huge thing. A four-year player at D3 is 22 years old and doesn't have a lot of time to make an impact. The adjustment from HS to pro ball is already huge, but the player has 3-4 years to figure it out. A D3 player will NEVER face the quality of pitching seen at full-season A ball, much less anything higher, so adjusting is huge. Pitchers have a better chance of seeing opportunity out of D3 since pitching isn't reactionary.

Being 26 in AA unless you were injured or otherwise missed time is a death knell, unless your tools are so superior that you keep getting second looks (70+ power or 95+ arm will play for a long time). 

"But that's a different point than the original argument that it's hard to project D3 position players cause of the pitching they don't face. Does that make sense?"

I think there could be 4 main points at work on this issue:

1.) D3 position players do have the opportunity to face D1 level pitching but only if their coaches place them in some of the top Summer Wood bat leagues;

2.) When a D3 position player is in a top Summer Wood bat league, he needs to perform at a high level, against the better pitching in that league and have scouts at those games;

3.) Organizations vary in their views and scouting approaches which becomes quite evident when 10 scouts watch a D3 position player and provide assessments to the player or coaching staff. Within  those subjective differences, a D3 player must perform at a very high level, seemingly get better during each year of college and each year of Summer Wood bat league play AND by the time he is a junior/senior, there have to be scouts who project they have more upside which translates well on the 20/80 scale,  based on their tools which scouts can see.

4.) Putting up big numbers at the D3 level is pretty irrelevant to being drafted and being drafted as a position player from HS vs D3 is more of an apples and oranges discussion than apples and apples.

HS position players are not drafted based on their performance on their HS team.

I think there may be some Regional differences and issues with that statement Sultan.  In the greater Bay Area, we can often  see anywhere from 20-40 scouts at certain HS games.  One local kid  never played anything but HS baseball and  ended up a 2nd round pick out of HS, but only because he told every scout he was going to Stanford, where he committed. He ended up being a 4th rounder 3 years later out of Stanford.

I followed a particular D3 team a few years ago. A friend's son was on the team. They won the national championship. One of their best hitters hit about .450. He wasn't drafted. He was signed to short season after an organization realized their short season team lacked depth at his position. He hit .170 but was promoted to low A as a backup. A month later he was promoted to AA as a backup. When the starter returned from the DL he was released. He was never a prospect. He was roster filler for a season and a half.

The answer in the "book"

Bob

I would propose that very few "fillers" are drafted or signed as FA's out of D3 in contrast to the numbers above D3.  As I proposed earlier, there are also organizational "subjectives."

When our son was drafted, another D3 shortstop was drafted 2 rounds before by a different organization .  That player got about 50 AB's in short season. Our son got about 160.

That player was gone the following Spring. Our son got 500 AB's and was assigned with every top draft pick in his class. In fact, our son had more hits in his 2nd year in MILB than every pick in his class. On the other hand, some picked before him were moved up more quickly, but some including 2nd, 3rd and 5th rounders were not.

I would propose that most of those  drafted after the 15th round need to perform when the opportunity arises, and it does not make too much difference what level they came from before MILB. Because the draft has quirks where top picks who might be tougher signs go later but for more $$$$, those picks get plenty of chances whether they come from HS or college or JC.

Amen. The level doesn't matter much to the evaluators and coaches once you're in the system. Bonus money paid (which correlates to round selected) is the big factor that will fast-track you or keep you around if you're not performing.

But heck, everyone knows the score. It's not a "fair" game. But if you rake and don't piss off too many coaches... you're gonna get your shot eventually.