Btw recurrence rate is higher after TJ. It is good but not as good as the original.
As for risk reward I think it is worth it if you are in the 85-89 range because it makes you draftable and if you get hurt you can still have a normal life.
Now if you are 93 already not sure if it makes sense to ramp your arm up to 98 although if you get 5m who cares.
Maybe as a team you should try to look for arms that are not as "turbo charged".
"Turbo Charged" is the key phrase to this entire discussion. If you really take time & dig into this topic, you will learn that there is current, unpublished, valid research, that definitively shows a link with HS age high velocity pitchers who have engaged in weighted implement training & resulting injury. It is really no longer disputable. The problem with the weighted baseball training is that it "works." The reality is that it does not strengthen the arm but increases the "layback" or ROM thereby increasing the velo. The cost is often, not always, damaged tissue in the process.
This not to say that "all" who engage will break down. The data suggests that MLB analysts are now understanding its more about "how" the velo got there vs the actual #. If player A has done extensive "velocity training" with weighted implements to get to 95 at 18 years old, he still has value, but his value is less than identical player B who has not. Player A breaks down at a much higher percentage. His body was not really meant to operate at that velo. B may still break down, but the odds ($$) are he is a safer bet, no doubt.
So what does this all mean? It means that based upon recent history & Millions upon Millions of $$ spent on high velo HS pitchers who have done extensive velo training, the market is now trending against those who got the velo by max distance & heavy ball throwing. If the analysts can see a gradual progression over time, relative to the velo, this is the preference.
My own, personal take is this: If you are youth level (HS & below), I would stay away from the heavy ball. Crush the core, legs, weights (if mature enough), flexibility, throw plenty. Skip the heavy ball. If you are back end of College or Pro Ball with a foot out the door & need to add velo to stay in it or get a shot, toss the weighted balls & let it rip. It will likely work. If you break down, it was worth the risk.