Regardless of anyone’s perspective the data is interesting
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Wow...thanks for sharing! Pretty much reinforces my personal belief that a 17 yr old body is just not capable of handling 95. Throwing motion itself is an unnatural stress on the arm, let alone what 95 adds to that
some staggering info there, thanks for the link.
Wow! Interesting article. Unfortunately son's HS teammate was one of the statistics. Was drafted in 2012 out of HS (94 mph FB) and 4 years later was let go (2nd violation of the drug policy - 50 game suspension and the team let him go). He had made it as far a Short A I believe and was up to 98 mph (broke 100 mph a few times), but still had control issues (struck out as many as he walked). Today he works construction.
Makes me grateful my kid didn't hit 90 until his senior year. And is from a cold weather state.
After hitting 79 MPH as a 13 year old my son had a couple of years of growth plate issues. He decided to give up pitching and its been a great decision. Some of his friends didn't have arm problems until 16/17 and they no longer have the option of turning into position players. Its a tough road.
"And major league teams keep wasting first round picks on 18-year-old kids who throw harder than major league pitchers, which is kind of like hitching a ride with a kid with a learner’s permit behind the wheel of a Formula One racecar and hoping nothing goes wrong."
Drafting a kid who throws 94 in HS and gets TJ surgery isn't close to "wasting" a draft pick these days. An awful lot of these guys come back to become top pitchers. TJ has become a bump in the road for kids that throw this hard.
I would love to see the data on hard throwers who opt for college.
Well, I guess we can see their tolerance for risk here. It’s not gonna stop them from drafting these guys, it’s just that this is the amount of attrition they are willing to endure to get the ones that do pan out up to the show.
The percentage of kids who don't throw hard who get injured in professional baseball. 0%. They never get the opportunity.
The percentage of kids who opt for college who get injured in college and never get the opportunity to play professional baseball?
What are you going to tell a kid who throws hard at 14 15 16 17 18? Stop throwing so hard you are going to get injured? Don't train so hard to throw hard. Just wait and see if it just comes naturally.
There is risk if there is reward. The more reward the more risk. Good luck trying to teach young kids that want it and have it to stop trying to get more of it.
The fact is the percentages are against everyone to make it to MLB. What the percentage of kids who had the ability but never realized it because they were not willing to put in the work? But they never had TJ. Congrats no scars.
I believe today the advancements in training and sports medicine along with the knowledgeable pitching coaches available kids have an opportunity to reach their full potential if they are willing to put in the work. And still they may suffer injury that limits them or stops them. There is risk.
How many kids have arthritis in their thumbs and fingers from playing video games non stop? How many get hurt on jet ski's, atv's, dirt bikes, skate boarding, etc? We can end all these injuries if we just stop pushing it. If we just chill out.
The kids that throw hard have the intent to throw hard. They have the ability to throw hard. They want to throw harder. No article on injuries is going to stop that. No threat of injury is as well. What can we learn from this type of stuff? Young kids that throw hard are more susceptible to injuries? Duh. They always have been they always will be. They throw hard, there is risk and there is reward.
Control over use. Control mechanics. Do the right things between outings. Research it. There will still be risk and those numbers will still be high. What are the numbers for those that don't push it, don't play? Very low, congrats.
Coach_May posted:
Control over use. Control mechanics. Do the right things between outings. Research it. There will still be risk and those numbers will still be high. What are the numbers for those that don't push it, don't play? Very low, congrats.
Pretty much agree with your post. I do find this last statement interesting. With so many different thoughts on arm care and training methods available how would you begin to know? There are big names on both sides of the discussion on arm care and how to develop safely.
Obviously somewhere you need to just make a choice and go with it but that is pretty tough on a player at say 15 or so. Now granted if you thing TJ is just a bump in the road it becomes easier but I doubt most people feel that way.
Coach May,
I think the article is as much a declaration that the evaluation process of young pitchers, since it is skewed toward velocity, is broken based on the likelihood of that player bearing fruit at the big league level, more than anything else. This is always going to be an issue in baseball, because pitchers are far an away the highest probability of arm injuries. So, the question becomes, at what point do teams start to de-value the hardest throwing guys into a lower pick slot based on the high likelihood they will never make the MLB roster. Used to be a time when a top 3 round pick, regardless of position, had a better chance than not of at least having a cup of coffee in the show. Now? I think people tend to view 1st rd picks who don’t pan out as busts, especially with the size or f those signing bonuses.
In the NFL, running backs are not as highly drafted as one would think based on their ability to impact a game, chiefly due to the propensity for injury and the short duration of their careers.
Wow! I think we are all familiar with statistics regarding % of HS players v % of NCAA players who make it to MLB. However, I always associated that with the number of HS players drafted after the first 3-5 rounds who are basically used to fill rosters. Had no idea that HS pitchers drafted in the earlier rounds were struggling so much and had not even heard about Hunter Greene and TJ surgery. Glad my kid was not considered ready for MLB draft!
For MLB, yes. On pitcher health, No. MLB clubs will take better care of an 18-21 yo pitcher than college coaches. They have a much bigger investment in his health at 22-29 yo.
If a pitcher opts for college you suppose that Mr College Coach is going to it easy on the kid? "This one throws really hard, let's sit him out of the big series this weekend and protect that arm for the MLB club that drafts him."
Go44dad posted:For MLB, yes. On pitcher health, No. MLB clubs will take better care of an 18-21 yo pitcher than college coaches. They have a much bigger investment in his health at 22-29 yo.
If a pitcher opts for college you suppose that Mr College Coach is going to it easy on the kid? "This one throws really hard, let's sit him out of the big series this weekend and protect that arm for the MLB club that drafts him."
It used to be MLB organizations wanted to sign pitchers out of high school to protect them from being overused in college. Now maybe the philosophy is, let’s see if the kid’s arm survives until he’s twenty-one.
From my perspective maybe the question is if you have a kid naturally at very high velocity at fifteen or sixteen do you hold back advancing his velocity until college or turning pro? I do believe we’re at the outer limits of what an arm can endure velocity wise at 95-100 mph.
Go44dad posted:For MLB, yes. On pitcher health, No. MLB clubs will take better care of an 18-21 yo pitcher than college coaches. They have a much bigger investment in his health at 22-29 yo.
If a pitcher opts for college you suppose that Mr College Coach is going to it easy on the kid? "This one throws really hard, let's sit him out of the big series this weekend and protect that arm for the MLB club that drafts him."
Bingo!
Go44dad posted:For MLB, yes. On pitcher health, No. MLB clubs will take better care of an 18-21 yo pitcher than college coaches. They have a much bigger investment in his health at 22-29 yo.
If a pitcher opts for college you suppose that Mr College Coach is going to it easy on the kid? "This one throws really hard, let's sit him out of the big series this weekend and protect that arm for the MLB club that drafts him."
Agree. If a kid is predisposed to injuring based on velocity and strain on his arm, it’s going to happen either place. This article may change drafting, doesn’t change a kid’s path.
My son generally sits 86-89 and can touch 91. I have watched as the overwhelming number of kids throwing 93-97 has grown exponentially, and asked my 17 year old to focus on being able to better spot up his breaking ball and changeup and cut down on walks during this past fall. We went to Jupiter and the MO down there was “let a couple fly and show you can touch 93” but he was in a 1-0 game against the eventual champs after 2, and touched 90 that day. He pitched instead and finished with 4 hits 1 walk and 5 strikeouts over 4 innings. So did he do himself a disservice in front of MLB scouts? I don’t think so. I have watched a couple different kids I know blow up and touch 95 in High School, and both had TJ the year after they graduated! I just don’t think an adolescent 17 year old body can handle the torque involved. Call me old school but I will be content to watch what happens to his velo as his body matures between ages of 18-21
An article by Verducci huh? Another histrionic piece about the sky is falling, and little children are being maimed. (It's just clickbait like the 'Kate Bock works it in a gold swim suit' popup they show you when you read the article)
We are talking about tears of a small ligament that is easily repaired.
Plus the article is full of deliberate false equivalence - average speeds vs max speeds, college pitchers have the same problems, etc.
The only thing I know for sure is that nobody has any idea what causes UCLs to tear/pop.
SultanofSwat posted:....
We are talking about tears of a small ligament that is easily repaired.
....
Please tell me that was meant as sarcasm (hard to tell online sometimes).
When I see these articles I always look to see who wrote it. I’m not a Verducci fan. Like many others he provides the facts that fit the narrative and not the ones that don’t.
There is interesting information in the article. There are missing facts I’m curious to know the answer. There are other facts I know he didn’t provide as they don’t fit his narrative.
it would be nice if more people provided all the information and ask, “What do you think?” rather than have an agenda and attempt to form people’s opinion.
Fortunately this is just baseball. It’s done to us every day with important national and world events.
2019Lefty21 posted:My son generally sits 86-89 and can touch 91. I have watched as the overwhelming number of kids throwing 93-97 has grown exponentially, and asked my 17 year old to focus on being able to better spot up his breaking ball and changeup and cut down on walks during this past fall. We went to Jupiter and the MO down there was “let a couple fly and show you can touch 93” but he was in a 1-0 game against the eventual champs after 2, and touched 90 that day. He pitched instead and finished with 4 hits 1 walk and 5 strikeouts over 4 innings. So did he do himself a disservice in front of MLB scouts? I don’t think so. I have watched a couple different kids I know blow up and touch 95 in High School, and both had TJ the year after they graduated! I just don’t think an adolescent 17 year old body can handle the torque involved. Call me old school but I will be content to watch what happens to his velo as his body matures between ages of 18-21
My kid has same velocity as yours, sits high 80’s, touched 91, pitched well in Jupiter. He wants to throw 100 and never give up a run. He wanted to touch 93 this summer. He was pissed he didn’t.
Doesn’t matter what I think.
RJM posted:When I see these articles I always look to see who wrote it. I’m not a Verducci fan. Like many others he provides the facts that fit the narrative and not the ones that don’t.
There is interesting information in the article. There are missing facts I’m curious to know the answer. There are other facts I know he didn’t provide as they don’t fit his narrative.
it would be nice if more people provided all the information and ask, “What do you think?” rather than have an agenda and attempt to form people’s opinion.
Fortunately this is just baseball. It’s done to us every day with important national,and world events.,
Completely agree. Reasonable pieces of journalism just don’t sell as well as “Crisis” pieces.
Go44dad posted:2019Lefty21 posted:My son generally sits 86-89 and can touch 91. I have watched as the overwhelming number of kids throwing 93-97 has grown exponentially, and asked my 17 year old to focus on being able to better spot up his breaking ball and changeup and cut down on walks during this past fall. We went to Jupiter and the MO down there was “let a couple fly and show you can touch 93” but he was in a 1-0 game against the eventual champs after 2, and touched 90 that day. He pitched instead and finished with 4 hits 1 walk and 5 strikeouts over 4 innings. So did he do himself a disservice in front of MLB scouts? I don’t think so. I have watched a couple different kids I know blow up and touch 95 in High School, and both had TJ the year after they graduated! I just don’t think an adolescent 17 year old body can handle the torque involved. Call me old school but I will be content to watch what happens to his velo as his body matures between ages of 18-21
My kid has same velocity as yours, sits high 80’s, touched 91, pitched well in Jupiter. He wants to throw 100 and never give up a run. He wanted to touch 93 this summer. He was pissed he didn’t.
Doesn’t matter what I think.
ROTFL! That last sentence sums it up perfectly!
FWIW, I read the article as saying "maybe MLB should draft HS pitchers who are touching 92 or 93 as seniors and develop them to mid to high 90s guys from age 18-22, rather than drafting the senior touching 97 or 98, having him blow out his arm, and losing 18 months of development." But maybe I'm reading to much into it.
"The Marlins loved what they saw—a big kid from Texas throwing 99. They loved Kolek so much they used the second overall pick in the 2014 draft on him. They gave him $6 million."
Had this conversation with my son...
Your arm is toast, but you were drafted and you made 6 million bucks.
How much is your arm worth? 6 Mil?
That's a question each player with have to answer for himself.
Coach_May posted:What are you going to tell a kid who throws hard at 14 15 16 17 18? Stop throwing so hard you are going to get injured? Don't train so hard to throw hard. Just wait and see if it just comes naturally.
While I agree with your overall point, parents still need to set the ground rules for their young pitchers to reduce the chances of injuries that can impact the kid for a lifetime. For example, I think it's foolish to give a 15 year old kid a set of weighted baseballs without experienced and competent supervision. UCLs don't just tear one day, they develop micro-tears for years. I'd rather reduce the pitching load until the growing is complete.
Lots of injuries are related to growing bodies. IMO, limit the pitching until the radical growth calms down. That doesn't mean I'll squash his competitive spirit, but when it comes to pitching, he may not get the ball as much as he wants, and he may not get velocity training as soon as he wants. (My opinions are formed based on hindsight.)
Smitty28 posted:"And major league teams keep wasting first round picks on 18-year-old kids who throw harder than major league pitchers, which is kind of like hitching a ride with a kid with a learner’s permit behind the wheel of a Formula One racecar and hoping nothing goes wrong."
Drafting a kid who throws 94 in HS and gets TJ surgery isn't close to "wasting" a draft pick these days. An awful lot of these guys come back to become top pitchers. TJ has become a bump in the road for kids that throw this hard.
Yes. TJ pitchers don't become hall of famers but they still can have a productive career. Still an awful lot flame out of course.
CmassRHPDad posted:"The Marlins loved what they saw—a big kid from Texas throwing 99. They loved Kolek so much they used the second overall pick in the 2014 draft on him. They gave him $6 million."
Had this conversation with my son...Your arm is toast, but you were drafted and you made 6 million bucks.
How much is your arm worth? 6 Mil?That's a question each player with have to answer for himself.
For the players the decision is a no brainer and verducci wouldn't doubt it.
The question is if teams should still draft HS pitchers top15 in the draft. Recently many teams have started to lean more heavily on both hitters and college players early in the draft. They go for a high floor early and might take risky HS pitchers in the second or third round as a flier.
The cubs almost exclusively drafted college hitters in the first round in 3-4 consecutive years and it worked for them.
Ironically the last 2-3 years the cubs almost exclusively drafted pitchers since they felt they have enough hitters and almost none of them have panned out.
Also interesting that many prospect guys in the internet like fangraphs guys now artificially bump hitters up in the ranking. Rankings used to be like 50/50 pitchers hitters but now it is 60/40 and some argue it should be 70% hitters.
Basically what they do at fangraphs is giving every pitcher half a grade down due to attrition risk, I.e a pitcher they see as a 55 fv talent pitcher will get a 50.
Now teams still need the arms but it might be better to not draft them top20 in the draft. Now of course late in the first round it might change and there could be value in a pitcher but generally you find 95 plus arms in the second to 5th round too today. Most of the non first rounders will be relievers if they make it but with the new "opener" trend the teams might be ok with that, I.e get an armada of 3-4 inning guys rather than trying to find a unicorn like scherzer or verlander which rarely exists anymore.
Up until 1995, of all Tommy John surgeries performed in America, 0% were performed on teenagers. Only 20 years later, in 2015, of all Tommy John surgeries performed in America, 57% were performed on teenagers.* That is a staggering increase. What changed in youth baseball in those 20 years to account for this astronomical increase in Tommy John surgeries among teenagers?
* This statistic can be verified through Dr. James Andrews, as well as in the book The Arm by Jeff Passan.
Travel baseball and the showcase circuit?
Part is availability. Youth injury rates are probably really up some maybe partly due to year round throwing and other stuff but I guess TJ wasn't really that available for the public 20 years ago and many 16 year olds would just retire from baseball or become a position player only if they blew out their arm.
Now there is the option to continue. Maybe some are reckless pushing it too hard knowing there is a chance but really pitchers always had arm problems.
juergensen posted:What changed in youth baseball in those 20 years to account for this astronomical increase in Tommy John surgeries among teenagers?
The increase is really irreverent. There were less than 100 UCLR procedures performed before 1995, and it wasn't covered by most private health insurance plans at the time. For perspective, the percent increase from 1995 to 2017 for players after being drafted is something like 900%.
I think the study you're referring to covered the period 2007-2011. I don't know of a more recent one. The total number of procedures performed alone is worrisome (790), but I would speculate that the teenager part of that group is due to 1) wide availability of the surgery to teenagers (covered by most private health insurance), 2) increase in number of players who pitch >6 months/year, and 3) better training/conditioning that allows pitchers to throw harder.
Is that training/conditioning a good thing if the overuse leads to a higher incident of injury?
Unfortunately there is little evidence that conditioning can help keeping the arm healthy. I read that shoulder injuries are down since those rubber bands and other excercises became popular in the early 2000s so it is a good thing to do it but the elbow is only protected by very small muscles.
You can make the shoulder stronger but in the arm the UCL is still the weak link. Now there are theories that forearm muscles can protect the UCL (made popular by mike Marshall and later paraphrased by other coaches) but so far there is little hard evidence for this.
No mlb team has yet found something or we would see it in the DL stats.
Maybe someone will find something but it hasn't happened yet, if suddenly a team has half the pitcher injury rate of everyone over 3-4 years they might be on something.
2022OFDad posted:Is that training/conditioning a good thing if the overuse leads to a higher incident of injury?
Which takes us back to the risk/reward equation. Is it a good thing for a 17 year old RHP who gets stronger and his velo increases from 79 to 84, but he tears up his elbow doing it? As a parent, I wouldn't be happy with. Just not worth it.
If we're talking about a high school kid who went from 91 to 96 then missed his senior year rehabbing from UCLR, but he ended up having a nice college career and getting drafted in the 2nd round... I'm ok with that.
MidAtlanticDad posted:2022OFDad posted:Is that training/conditioning a good thing if the overuse leads to a higher incident of injury?
Which takes us back to the risk/reward equation. Is it a good thing for a 17 year old RHP who gets stronger and his velo increases from 79 to 84, but he tears up his elbow doing it? As a parent, I wouldn't be happy with. Just not worth it.
If we're talking about a high school kid who went from 91 to 96 then missed his senior year rehabbing from UCLR, but he ended up having a nice college career and getting drafted in the 2nd round... I'm ok with that.
You'd need to add in the uncertainty of making a full recovery from TJ surgery.
Here is a 2015 article that collects data from various studies: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/...rates-in-the-majors/ At that time, a pitcher in MLB had about an 80% chance of returning to MLB post-surgery. But there are some complicating factors, like reduced IP thereafter.
Obviously we can never really know, but if I knew my son could throw 95 in HS but would blow his arm out at 17 years old... that could be a tough call. How fast could he throw and not need surgery? Would he eventually need surgery even at a lower velo? There are some data that suggest recovery is more likely for younger pitchers. Would delaying surgery mean he pitches for several years with a partially torn UCL and therefore not perform as well? We've all read stories of kids who gained velo after TJ (because, I assume, they formerly had less-than-critical UCL damage). How long is a "replacement UCL" going to last before a P needs a second surgery?
Also, if you've ever had a kid deal with months of physical therapy after an orthopedic surgery, you know that is really tough. For an MLB player, rehab becomes their full-time job. But a college or HS kid has to fit rehab around the rest of life. I wouldn't call TJ surgery "minor" or "routine," especially given the work required to recover.
For my part, I keep my son's workload within the limits suggested by Dr. Andrews, and have him work with a coach I trust... And I hope for the best.
Btw recurrence rate is higher after TJ. It is good but not as good as the original.
As for risk reward I think it is worth it if you are in the 85-89 range because it makes you draftable and if you get hurt you can still have a normal life.
Now if you are 93 already not sure if it makes sense to ramp your arm up to 98 although if you get 5m who cares.
Maybe as a team you should try to look for arms that are not as "turbo charged".
Maybe I'm stating the obvious, but: for MLB teams, isn't the fundamental issue that you know a HS P throwing 95+ is capable of throwing 95+, while a P throwing 90 might never reach 95+. If we assume the chance of any given P returning from TJ is 80%, that's probably better odds than the chance your scouts are correct that the 90 mph guy you draft out of college can eventually throw 95+.
They are drafting 94+ guys out of hs. There are massive numbers that throw 90. 95 is the new 90.