Ground Ball vs. Fly Ball Pitchers

Bum,

I have, based on my 5'10" LHP, have a different opinion. But I think it really comes down to the pitcher, the movement on the ball, and how he feels he is most effective. My son's pitch moves down and away from a right handed batter. He works down in the zone and, historically - this will be his first year in college, lives on ground balls to second. I'd say he gets a ground ball 8 out of 10 times a ball is put in play.

Bum,
I think that a HS pitcher can find success working higher in the zone with their FB because there is less power at the plate and you can get away with your mistakes.
In college and beyond those fly balls can suddenly become the dreaded long ball.That's teh issue. I think regardless of size, you are going to hear, keep it low, low, low. Hitters are smarter, more selective, more powerful and the strike zone shrinks, plus wind in or out becomes a huge factor. Coaches prefer it on the ground, from everyone. Contact is ok as long as they don't equate to Rs or ERs. For groundballers who get a hit out of someone now can rely on the GB for the DP, with men on base, high long fly out can become a run, or two. One pitch thrown to a hitter to the ss where he can play the ball is also much preferred to 5-6 or more pitches for the strike out to maximize usage of the pitcher.

Don't know about your son's future pitching coach, but I will bet he'll be working with him to keep it lower than he has.

FWIW, my hs soph son is tall and tends to get ground balls and come backers.

I don't know if you are right or wrong, but an out is an out. If you can get outs with flys or infield grounders, then the pitcher saves his arm.

eta: just read TPM's post (jinx!) good point about college and beyond....

Bum, My feeling is you Throw High inside, Low and away.
And mix up the speed.
Learn to throw from the stretch, and work on keeping runner's from stealing.
The coach will decide what pitch they want thrown at any given time.
They will use a LHP in many different way's during the season.

Example:
Runner on third less than 2 out's, They want a ground ball.
Not a fly ball.

The player's in College will put a more consistent bat on the ball then they do in HS.
FO and GO are great, In the right situation's during the game.
HR are mistakes by pitcher's.
Strike Out's are mistake's by Hitter's.

BUM;

When you son obtains the next level, he will make the necessary adjustments. Every Australian pitcher is taught to pitch waist to knees.

Our American 16-18 hitters will soon predict this
pitching philosophy. Each college pitching coach have their own techniques in coaching.

ADJUSTMENT: will be necessary for the player to have success at his next level. Adjusting to the environment, the coaches, the teammates, the classroom and the batter while keeping his individual thinking. Teach him to be a "leader"!!!

Right handed hitters like the ball "up"
and left handed hitters like the ball "down".

If I am hitting against your son, I would know his arm angle, pitch selection and location
when he "warms up" in the bullpen. I would wait for one pitch.

Bob Williams

This sounds like a question for Sabermetrics!

I will bet this question has been asked and researched. Actually it is more than one question:

1) Is it true that some successful pitchers fly ball pitchers and some successful pitchers ground ball pitchers?

2) If the answer is "yes," then is there a physical attribute to each kind of pitcher, say, height, that is correlated to which kind of pitcher a kid is.

Bum,
I ask this very question back in November. Here are some of the responses.

http://hsbaseballweb.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/1491034941/m/3021071752

Bum,
Your theory may be right, it would be interesting to find statistics on the subject.

Unfortunetly many of our players are recruited for different roles other than the ones they are accustumed too. All of this will be determined by the coach and he will make adjustments to his needs.

Not all pitchers are the same and shouldn't be molded to be the same. In college it is more desireable for a starter to keep the ball in play on the ground not in the air. If a team has enough arms, pitchers fall into specialty roles, starter, long relief, set up, closer. The bottom line is that they have to produce outs.

Bum,

There’s no doubt in my mind that any STYLE a pitcher has at any level lower than professional ball has the possibility to enjoy a lot of success. But, because of the low quality defense and hitters, compared to the pros, no one should try to compare what a pitcher at any of those lower levels does, with a pro, let alone a ML player! Instead, they should look at the team behind the pitcher, and perhaps at the field they play at to get the best picture possible about what’s goin’ on.

Here’s a small example. My son had a GBO/FBO well over 4:1. His HS teams had a career IF FPC of .900. His infield made an error about every 17 batters he faced over 1,200 batters. They also played at a home field that was 325’ down the lines, 365’ in the power alleys, and 405’ in CF. The FPC for the IF team I’ve scored for for the last 2 seasons has been .940.

Pitchers on his team that gave up lots of fly balls did pretty well in general, and although my son did extremely well, how much more success would he have had if he had an infield that fielded 40 points better?

I don’t know about all HS IFs, but I’m gonna guess that .900 is around average to below average, and .940 is a pretty darn good one. While although I’m not gonna check, I’m gonna guess the IFs for ML teams are up around .970+. With those kinds of numbers, its pretty easy to see why ML teams drool over P’s with great GBO/FBO numbers! Heck, not only do the ML fielders make many more outs, when the ball is on the ground, it can’t go over the fence. In HS, not only will the defense not make nearly as many outs, its unusual for a HS team to have more than a couple players who can pop one out, while everyone in a ML lineup can do it.

What I’m trying to tell you is, for the age you’re talking about, the odds are that he’s gonna do just fine and have lots of success allowing batters to hit the ball in the air. But at some point in time, even if the coaches don’t really understand all the factors, they’re gonna want to see pitchers working in the lower part of the zone, unless of course they can hump the ball up there 10-15% faster than decent pitchers at his level.

As for your fastball theory, I don’t know. But, I suspect much more depends on release point and velocity than height. But there’s good news. Soon there won’t be any more need to theorize! As the analysts get more and more used to working with technology like Pitch f/x, a lot of baseball theories are gonna bite the dust, and a lot are gonna be substantiated by fact.

Skeep,
You make good points however I do disagree with some points about college and what is done in pro baseball. Every coach that recruited son mentioned his ability to keep it low and on the ground. While FO/GO, pitch f/x is not a statistic used in college baseball, it is VERY important to many pitching coaches of quality programs to keep it on the ground. They do NOT like the continuos high pop ups.

Your posts sound familiar, you have posted here before?

I agree there are certain types of pitchers - this is a fly ball guy and this is a groundball guy - but you do have to be able to locate to all over the zone to be successful. You might not be as strong throwing up in the zone as you are low in the zone. You just need to be able to spot it enough to keep them honest.

Your son cannot go warm up in the bullpen and be ready to take the mound and have the coach say "keep it low" and then call low pitches and expect success. From the sound of it your son has not really worked on staying low in the zone. He needs the off season and preseason to work on this. To change the location it involves stride length, release point and several other factors.

Your son can become a low ball pitcher and still have success up in the zone but it takes work. Just get him with a good pitching coach and they can work on it and your son will be much more successful.

Coach, Bum, Jr. usually has exceptional control. Even down. I'm just saying that the Summer coach emphasized the low pitch and I think Bum, Jr. went from 50/50 up/down to maybe 20/80 up down.. and a fly ball pitcher should pitch to his strength. He's given up five home runs this year and ALL have been pitches down in the zone (belt and below), not up. It seems counter-intuitive, I know, so it makes me wonder about my theory. BTW, I think any pitcher should get ahead, regardless of location, and once ahead should be careful to pitch it far enough up in the zone (more than half-way from belt to shoulders, for example) to ensure a chase pitch and not a home run.

I also think it depends on the pitch movement. A pitcher who primarily has tail to his pitch is more likely to be fly ball pitcher than the pitcher who primarily has sink.

Bottom line is, of course, it will be up to his coaches where he pitches. I'm just curious.

Can't resist:

From the poster's tagline above:

"When life hands you gators - make Gatorade"

Bum's son was named the Gatorade Player of the Year in the State of Washington. He pretty much knows how to pitch!

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:
You make good points however I do disagree with some points about college and what is done in pro baseball. Every coach that recruited son mentioned his ability to keep it low and on the ground.

I’m assuming those two sentences go together, so that’s how I’ll comment on them.

I have absolutely no doubt at all that every coach who recruits players, whether its for a t-ball team, any of the top D1 programs, or any other team at any other level, is looking for P’s who get lots of GBs. But is that because those pitchers would be the best for his team, or because baseball dogma says pitchers that get lots of GBs are better than those who get lots of FBs?

I suspect the latter. And its not that I don’t think it’s a perfectly valid concept, but I more than strongly suspect it comes from people thinking about GB pitchers in terms of MLB, where the fielders have an enormous skills advantage, rather than a bunch of 9YOs. Yes, folks might want to see a 9YO P with the bases loaded, 1 out, and the championship game on the line, entice the batter into hitting a GB in hopes that it’ll be turned into a game saving DP, but what are the odds of that happening?

Compare a MLB field to a typical field where 12U kids play. What are the chances a GB is going to bounce true? Assuming it does, what are the chances the fielders are gonna make the play without making some kind of an error, and still get the batter/runner? The fact is, although it’s a good thing the players at lower levels get to try those things, the chances they’ll pull off the play are really poor compared to a short fly to the OF.

It’s the same thing for HS or colleges. Is it likely that a P throwing at Rice will have his defense roll 2 if they get the chance? Sure is. But how about Blue Bye U in the corner of La with an enrollment of 500 students? Remember, you have to consider all colleges, not just the very best ones.

The fact is, the GBO/FBO ratio is something easily computed at the affiliated professional level, and it is. But how many teams below that level do it? As far as I know, I was the only SK not using an electronic scoring device in the entire state of CA that computed it for a JUCO team, and the same goes for HS teams.

Without having that data available, first of all its impossible to do anything more than guess about whether a pitcher is a GB or FB pitcher, and without very good fielding data, its impossible to do more than take a wild guess as how likely it would be that a given team might be able to take advantage of a P who throws lots of GBs.

How did any of the scouts/recruiters know your boy kept the ball low and on the ground? I’m certainly not saying they were wrong or that he didn’t, but I’d really like to know how they measured such a thing. Did your school’s coach maintain such a statistic, or was it something else?

The bottom line is, while I’m 100% sure that’s something scouts/recruiters look for, I have serious doubts about how valid their information is, or how much that would actually benefit their team.

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:
While FO/GO, pitch f/x is not a statistic used in college baseball, it is VERY important to many pitching coaches of quality programs to keep it on the ground. They do NOT like the continuos high pop ups.

I’m sorry if I didn’t explain what pitch f/x is. All that is, is the electronic capacity to measure pitches. As far as I know, its not being used anywhere other than MLB stadiums.

And I sure do agree that FO/GO isn’t a statistic used in college baseball, or at least not on a regular basis like say K/BB would be. I also completely agree that it is VERY important to many PC of quality programs, but I have to wonder why it is they feel that way. Is it because they too have been swayed by the MLB numbers, or because they just KNOW its important?

I’d like to have some kind of reason for what I allowed to my recruiting scheme. With real numbers I could say much more how important something was. Heck, if I was a college PC and knew it was very very important, I’d go crazy because there was no way I could really get a good feel for the players I was seeing since its not a stat that HS’s keep!

As for not liking continuous high popups that would be another thing I’d have to question if a coach said it to me. I truly don’t know of anyone who tracks high popups as opposed to popups, as opposed to fly balls, other than MLB. For me to believe a fellow like that knew what he was talking about, I’d have to see the ratio of high popups all the Ps had and then compare that to how successful those guys were.

Look, I’m not saying any of that stuff is BS. In fact, everything you mentioned is something I happen to agree with to a major degree. The only difference is, I know there’s an easy way to measure it, and since there is, I want to see it measured to judge to what degree I should place its importance.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Coach, Bum, Jr. usually has exceptional control. Even down. I'm just saying that the Summer coach emphasized the low pitch and I think Bum, Jr. went from 50/50 up/down to maybe 20/80 up down.. …

Can’t help but ask, who called pitches during games. If it was the coach and that was his philosophy, its easy to see why he changed so much. If it’s the catcher, I would be a bit surprised if the coach told him he wanted pitch locations much more low in the zone than up.

But, even though your perception is that he went to 20/80 from 50/50, how do you know? It’ll be pretty easy to see those kinds of things for ML pitchers because of pitch f/x, but its really darned difficult to say where pitches REALLY were without technology.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:… and a fly ball pitcher should pitch to his strength. He's given up five home runs this year and ALL have been pitches down in the zone (belt and below), not up. It seems counter-intuitive, I know, so it makes me wonder about my theory.

Actually it seems exactly right to me. Although I don’t hold batters in especially high regard as to their IQs, it would have to take a particularly thick headed hitter to not realize a P was throwing such a high percentage of his pitches with a particular tendency. It seems to me that that’s when they’d start looking for pitches in that area, and thus be much more prepared to hit them.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum: I also think it depends on the pitch movement. A pitcher who primarily has tail to his pitch is more likely to be fly ball pitcher than the pitcher who primarily has sink.

What makes you say that?

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:Bottom line is, of course, it will be up to his coaches where he pitches. I'm just curious.

It will be up to them where the pitches will be called, but it’ll be his skill that makes it happen or not.

quote:

Originally posted by Krakatoa:
Bum's son was named the Gatorade Player of the Year in the State of Washington. He pretty much knows how to pitch!

Congrats to the boy!

But that begs the question, was he calling his own pitches? LOL!

Skeep, I am learning out of pure curiosity. I might have an opinion or even a philosophy about this but no way am I going to sell it to my son. As soon as he steps foot on campus this fall he will do exactly what his college coaches tell him. But I think they have an inkling about Bum, Jr.'s tendencies. In the past two games all of the hits he has given up have been thigh-high to belt, not belt up. Since you asked, I can tell because I typically sit perpendicular to the path to the plate (his arm side). (No reason why, it's just traditional with me.)

I think the strikeouts need to be factored into the mathematics of choosing a gb vs. fb pitcher as well. (This is not to say gb pitchers don't get strikeouts too!)

How's this for a fun question? Assign 3 points for a strikeout. 2 points for a groundball out. 1 point for a flyball out. Which major league pitcher would have the highest score on average? Is he a flyball pitcher or a groundball pitcher?

quote:

How's this for a fun question? Assign 3 points for a strikeout. 2 points for a groundball. 1 point for a flyball. Which major league pitcher would have the highest score on average? Is he a flyball pitcher or a groundball pitcher?

Bum,

My guess is, using that formula, he would be a strikeout pitcher!

Actually flyball pitchers are typically strikeout pitchers. They have to be. There are lots of groundball pitchers who do not get a lot of strikeouts.

The problem with fly vs ground out stats is that most extra base hits are fly balls that don't figure into the stats. Also line drive outs are placed in the flyball out category. So if all line drives and extra base hits and homeruns are flyballs and most outs and double plays are ground balls it is easy to see why there are many guys in the big leagues because they are ground ball pitchers.

Come to think of it, I have heard of lots of groundball specialists, but I don't think I've ever heard of someone being described as a flyball specialist. You know... bring them in the game to get a flyball or a line drive.

I think those flyball specialists are better known as strikeout specialists.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Skeep, I am learning out of pure curiosity. I might have an opinion or even a philosophy about this but no way am I going to sell it to my son. As soon as he steps foot on campus this fall he will do exactly what his college coaches tell him. But I think they have an inkling about Bum, Jr.'s tendencies. In the past two games all of the hits he has given up have been thigh-high to belt, not belt up. Since you asked, I can tell because I typically sit perpendicular to the path to the plate (his arm side). (No reason why, it's just traditional with me.)

I sure hope no one got the impression I was in any way implying to not do the things coaches tell players to do! All I’m saying is, at any level below MLB, because of the generally lower skill levels of everyone, players, coaches, officials, plus the generally lower quality levels of the field and equipment, things that are perfectly valid at the MLB level, aren’t necessarily the same at all levels.

I’d bet large sums of money that they really do have an inkling of the boy’s tendencies. But, I’d bet even larger sums, that their margin of error is about twice what they think it is, and at the risk of offending you, I’m gonna guess yours is much better than theirs, but its still very different from what’s actually happening.

It not that I think everyone is a fool or can’t tell a high ball from a low one, but over the years I’ve had a lot of things proven to me to be true about baseball, that I’d never have guessed were true.

One thing’s for sure, you and I have very different feelings about where to view our son pitching from, and likely for very different reasons. I never worried about up and down or in and out because that was something no one other than the guy calling pitches could control. However, ball movement was quite a different thing. What I’m saying is, although a P’s tendencies to throw in a certain location, up/down/in/out are controlled to some degree by his abilities, there’s just no way if he has much control at all, that he can either be rewarded or blamed for his tendency to keep the ball down or up. That is of course assuming he’s being given a pitch type and location.

Another thing is perspective. No matter where someone sits, even the most skilled observer isn’t going to be able to tell with a high degree of accuracy where a ball was when it got hit. IMHO, there are just way too many things going on and factors to consider in way to short an amount of time. I think its pretty easy to tell if a player hit a ball that was at his eyes as opposed to at his ankles. But a ball that’s 3’ off the ground that gets hit early, late, or inside, or out, will look very different to the unaided eye.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:I think the strikeouts need to be factored into the mathematics of choosing a gb vs. fb pitcher as well. (This is not to say gb pitchers don't get strikeouts too!)

Heck, there’s all kinds of additional factors I’d like to consider in almost every metric, but guess what? I’m not the guy who controls that stuff. For some reason, the powers to be have determined the ratio to be GBO/FBO. Not GB/FB which is something very different indeed, but GB outs/FB outs.

Here’s a statement from Rotowire, a fantasy site, about G/F. Keep in mind that fantasy players are choosing players using as many metrics as they can. A strong ground-ball pitcher can overcome a low strikeout rate, while a fly-ball pitcher will often need a deep ballpark to be successful. Look for a rate 1.50 or higher (especially for a non-strikeout pitcher).

I’ve always limited myself to GBO/FBO because I don’t keep score the way they do in pro baseball, so I don’t have a way to pull all GB’s and all FB’s.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:How's this for a fun question? Assign 3 points for a strikeout. 2 points for a groundball out. 1 point for a flyball out. Which major league pitcher would have the highest score on average? Is he a flyball pitcher or a groundball pitcher?

I don’t know that that would be a valid metric. Why does a K get more value than any other kind of out? Even if it is more valuable, is it 3 times more valuable than a fly ball out and half again as valuable as a ground ball out? If a K is a positive, what about a BB or HBP? Why shouldn’t they be a negative? It gets quite complicated, doesn’t it? LOL!

But, because you’re an inquisitive kinda guy, I’m gonna do something for you. I did my best to make your metric. But, since this is a HSBB not a MLBBB, I used HS numbers that I have for the team I score for. Granted it doesn’t include as many players or nearly as many data points, but its still valid none-the-less.

There are 4 pages. The 1st page is the metric I normally do, the 2nd is the one using your formula. Pages 3 and 4 are our opponents.

http://infosports.net/scorekeeper/images/abstract.pdf

PG, your analysis seems right to me. I have a younger boy (a RHP) who just recently finished a season of legion ball. Didn't get many innings until 1/2 way through the season but when he did the coach noticed something.. he is a groundball machine.

I've never seen anything like it, really. One game he had 14 consecutive ground ball outs and 4 consecutive 4-3 outs. I actually think he locates better then my LHP-son. Just need to perk up his fastball.. but he's a late-late-bloomer, typical in my family. So I'm a believer in groundball pitchers, too!

I've never looked at the statistics of these things much, but even though I consider my LHP-son a "fly ball pitcher" I am pretty sure his outs totals are in this order: 1) Strikeouts, 2) Groundouts, 3) Flyouts. Point is, I think even most "flyball" pitchers get a lot of groundouts, even more than flyouts. Just that their percentage of flyouts may be higher than normal. Most likely, I think, it is because they can pitch up in the zone effectively. That is "effectively", not "exclusively". Any pitcher that pitches up in the zone exclusively won't last in baseball very long. My older boy has learned to pitch up to get flyouts and strikeouts and down to get groundouts and strikeouts. It's the constant mixing of the up/down and in/out locations as well as speed changes that works for him.

BTW, I understand line drives go down in the books as flyouts but these are not the type of flyouts I'm talking about. (In my book, a lineout is an "L5" not an "F5".)

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
PG, your analysis seems right to me. I have a younger boy (a RHP) who just recently finished a season of legion ball. Didn't get many innings until 1/2 way through the season but when he did the coach noticed something.. he is a groundball machine.

I want to comment on something right there that doesn’t have anything to do with GB/FB. Opportunities are so vastly underrated, it drives me crazy! Yes, there are some players who are standouts, but most teams don’t have more than 1 or 2 of them on the pitching staff. Most of the other P’s are kinda run-of-the-mill AVERAGE players, at least in the coach’s eyes. But, just as everyone expects them to do, the coach ranks them, unofficially, if not officially.

Once that’s done, opportunities are pretty much handed out by that ranking. That’s the way its always been done, and prolly will remain that way. But, those rankings are generally made by some subjective criteria the coach has in his head, rather than some objective standard. Billy’s dad helps with the snack bar, Joey hustles more than Tommy. Ed is probably better than Joey, but he gets PT in the field. I think you get my drift.

But I would much rather see the opportunities be handed out much more evenly, just in case there might be a diamond in the rough hiding there, or maybe some private coach has managed to make a silk purse out of a pig’s ear. Your story pretty much demonstrates my point. Sorry. Just couldn’t resist.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:I've never seen anything like it, really. One game he had 14 consecutive ground ball outs and 4 consecutive 4-3 outs. I actually think he locates better then my LHP-son. Just need to perk up his fastball.. but he's a late-late-bloomer, typical in my family. So I'm a believer in groundball pitchers, too!

I've never looked at the statistics of these things much, but even though I consider my LHP-son a "fly ball pitcher" I am pretty sure his outs totals are in this order: 1) Strikeouts, 2) Groundouts, 3) Flyouts. Point is, I think even most "flyball" pitchers get a lot of groundouts, even more than flyouts. Just that their percentage of flyouts may be higher than normal. Most likely, I think, it is because they can pitch up in the zone effectively. That is "effectively", not "exclusively". Any pitcher that pitches up in the zone exclusively won't last in baseball very long. My older boy has learned to pitch up to get flyouts and strikeouts and down to get groundouts and strikeouts. It's the constant mixing of the up/down and in/out locations as well as speed changes that works for him.

I think people would be very surprised in general if they did check the stats on something like this, AND if those stats were valid. I didn’t show it before, but since you put the way you saw your boy the way you did, take a look at http://infosports.net/scorekeeper/images/abstract1.pdf

If I understood you correctly, you think the boy gets more outs with K’s than either FB’s or GB’s. If you look at our P’s on page 1, you’ll see that there is only 1 P on our team who falls into that category. He is an exceptionally hard thrower who does get t a lot of K’s, but unfortunately, it appears that most of the hitters he gets that way are the average and below average hitters. The rest seem to have absolutely no trouble with him at all.

However, if you look at our opponents, you’ll see something quite different. In general, our team faced a lot of very good pitchers because our team had a big target on its back, and good pitching in HS generally means a lot of K’s.

Here’s a rule of thumb you might try. Compute the number of K’s per inning for your boy. Unless he’s in at least the 1 per inning range, I doubt that he gets most of his outs by K.

Just out of curiosity, would you enjoy seeing those kinds of statistics?

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:BTW, I understand line drives go down in the books as flyouts but these are not the type of flyouts I'm talking about. (In my book, a lineout is an "L5" not an "F5".)

LOL!

What you’re talking about is something that could drive people nuts. I’m the kind of SK who doesn’t mark F8, L5, G3 or anything else that distinguishes on hit ball from another. But there’s a reason, and we’ll just stick to GBO/FBO.

The formula doesn’t distinguish between a ball hit way up in the air from one hit like a pea, 3’ off the ground. If the ball is caught before it touches the ground, its considered a fly out. I’m guessing more problems come from what happens after that though. What kind of out is it when a ball is caught on the fly in the OF and a runner is subsequently put out? I call it a FBO.

How about a 6-4-3 DP. I call it 2 GBOs. How about a line drive to the OF that the CF throws the runner out trying to stretch it into a double? I admit that I have no basis for the way I do it other than what seems to be logical to me. Ya now what? Now that I think about it, I think I’ll have to check with my MLB scorer source to find out how they do it. I’ll let ya know what I find out.

Let's not get into big stat discussion in HS, especially GO/FO. They mean little. IMO.

Bottom line, if you win, you get the job.

How's this for stats, two very young pitchers winning today, Dodger C Kershaw (age 20) 10GO/3FO 7k's against the Cardinals and Marlin C Volstad (age 21) 10GO/6FO 3K's against the Phillies .

Hey BumSter. With all this talk of high and low, I think you mentioned in one post that he's 50/50 high/low. Thats a good ratio depending on his arm slot. A good example of a high ball lefty is J Lester. He gets lots of K's on high and away (from rh) Fb's. The other point to make is, that he must and will learn to pitch to the 4 corners, up and down. He will still have a strength, as most pitchers do. If he can work up then down then back up, he's changing the plane and also the hitters eye level. Thats one of the keys in learning how to pitch. And being that its his summer coach, I would allow him a little of "I'm going to just go with my strength" anyway. If the coach or catcher call a fb, he can certainly locate it to his strength and let the results speak for themselves. The best advice I could ever give a young pitcher is " Trust your Stuff".

To those who understand baseball (at many if not all levels) and that it is and has been about stats since the BIGinning, within are some (but not limited to) 'extended' stats, associated with pitching numbers:

-GO/AO
GO/AO describes the percentage of balls on the ground (GO) vs balls in the air (AO) that result in an out.

-Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
FIP is an estimate of a pitcher's ERA that considers all things that fielders cannot influence; strikeouts, walks, and home runs.
FIP are more useful estimates of a pitcher's ability than ERA.
FIP =((HR*13 + (BB+HBP)* 3 - SO * 2)/IP )
+ ~3.2(League Factor)

- Groundball Percentage GB%
Groundball percentage describes the proportion of batted balls that are hit on the ground.
GB% = GB / Batted Balls

-Strikeouts per Plate Appearance K%
Describes the proportion of plate appearances (or batters faced, from a pitcher's perspective) that result in strikeout.
K% = K / PA

-Left On Base Percentage LOB%
Left On base Percentage describes the proportion of baserunners that a pitcher allows to score.

-Walks per Plate Appearance BB%
Walk rate describes the proportion of plate appearances (or batters faced, from a pitcher's perspective) that result in walk.
BB% = BB / PA

-Base Runs Allowed per 9 Innings BsRA9
Base Runs (BsR) is a technique for run estimation that actually models the run scoring environment and is accurate in a wide range of contexts. The formula can be described this way:
Runs = Baserunners * The Proportion of Baserunners Who Score + Home Runs
BsRA9 is an application of this technique estimator for pitchers. The result estimates a pitcher's expected runs allowed per 9 innings.
Although this is really a descriptive statistic, BsRA9 may also be somewhat predictive because it allows us to see which pitchers were luckier than others. If you divide a pitchers' expected runs allowed (as measured by BsRA9) by the actual runs allowed, you get the BsRA%.

-Base Runs Allowed Percentage BsRA%
BsRA% describes the proportion of expected runs allowed relative (BsRA9) to actual runs allowed.
A BsRA% near 100 indicates a high correlation between expected runs allowed and actual runs allowed, but a BsRA% below 90 or above 110 suggests a pitcher allowed fewer or more runs than expected due to situational factors.
BsRA% = BsRA / RA

-Home Runs per Airborne Batted Ball
HR/Air describes the percentage of line drives and outfield fly balls that result in a home run. HR/Air = HR / (FB + LD)

- Total Batters Faced TBF
Total Batters Faced is a count of batters that recorded a plate appearance against a pitcher.

B. James has left the building!

As much as I find stats interesting they don't mean much.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
As much as I find stats interesting they don't mean much.

Sacrilege. Prayers for you

In a less proper sense any transgression against the virtue of baseball would be a sacrilege.

It is customary to enumerate three kinds of sacrilege: personal, local, and real.

Personal sacrilege means to deal so irreverently with something sacred.

Local sacrilege is the violation of a sacred place.

Real sacrilege is the irreverent treatment of sacred things.

BB does a fine job of demeaning itself without my help.
Stats are influenced by many things that are not apparent to many. The coach who calls inside FB on a #4 hitter with regularity is a big factor. Setting up the infield and out field also a big factor. The game is a game of anticipation and guessing that is why it is called a game. You guess right and you luck out.
Errors are made at all levels even pro.
I know guys with auwful stats that have been drafted and they played in one of the weakest conferences in the country. A teammate of my son who was used for 9 innings with terrible stats went to a D11 school and went 13-0 and is now with the spokane Indians 3-1 with an era of 1.8. Scouts and college recruiters don't care about stats. HS is even less relevant even though it feels like the greatest ball.Enjoy it for what it is.
I have seen at least 3 errors on my son's stats in college. 1 has been corrected. In summer college ball he was charged with 2 runs that wer on base when he went in with no outs. That also affects stats. I never complained to the coach but he found 1 of the errors when rebuilding the web site.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Stats are influenced by many things that are not apparent to many. The coach who calls inside FB on a #4 hitter with regularity is a big factor. Setting up the infield and out field also a big factor. The game is a game of anticipation and guessing that is why it is called a game. You guess right and you luck out.

So, your conclusion is that no metric in baseball is a true and valid indicator of tendencies. That’s difficult for me to come to grips with when the 1st thing you do is give examples of coaches using stats to call pitches and set the defense. Of course if your saying they do that with no rhyme nor reason, that’s a different story.

quote:

Errors are made at all levels even pro.

And?

quote:

I know guys with auwful stats that have been drafted and they played in one of the weakest conferences in the country. A teammate of my son who was used for 9 innings with terrible stats went to a D11 school and went 13-0 and is now with the spokane Indians 3-1 with an era of 1.8. Scouts and college recruiters don't care about stats. HS is even less relevant even though it feels like the greatest ball.Enjoy it for what it is.

So, another one of your conclusions is that the theories and math behind baseball stats are all BS? Seems to me that it isn’t the theory behind or the math for any stat, but rather the relatively poor quality of coaching, playing, and SKing compared to MLB.

quote:

I have seen at least 3 errors on my son's stats in college. 1 has been corrected. In summer college ball he was charged with 2 runs that wer on base when he went in with no outs. That also affects stats. I never complained to the coach but he found 1 of the errors when rebuilding the web site.

You say how worthless stats are, then actually worry about your son’s summer college ball stats? WHEW! The next time someone tells me how NUTS about stats I am, I’m gonna tell them that story.

Skeep what I said was that scouts look past stats. Stats are highly subjective.
I believe I said I wasn't worried about son's stats. The errors were made in college and in summer league so I wonder how many other errors there are. I saw several with other players as well.
The college errors were all game sheets not adding up to summary stats. His freshman year had 2 extension errors and 1 was corrected. I didn't say anything about that except here and I was surprised that tose kind of errors were made in D1 ball.
If stats were so important how does a guy who is 2-9 with a double digit era get drafted ? Obviously they are not important to MLB scouts.
As far as worrying about stats I don't but that doesn't mean I don't look at them. The fact is that stats can signify problems with mechanics and other things.

Well there are many things that can influence stats that can cause them to be very sketchy should we say. Especially in HS and College baseball where the difference in the levels of competition can vary so greatly from game to game , series to series.

For instance. In hs a certain pitcher can draw the toughest starts because he is the best pitcher. He pitches against the best teams with the better hitters. Then the #3 guy that pitches against the weaker opponents cruises and has outstanding stats. In college a mid week starter playing for a top level team playing weaker opponents during the mid week games could post outstanding stats. The same could be said for hitters who only play against the weaker opponents with the weaker pitching.

Stats can be very misleading.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Skeep what I said was that scouts look past stats.

BHD, I won’t call you a liar because I don’t think you are at all, but I will say that what you think you said, isn’t what you said.Scouts and college recruiters don't care about stats.

Not caring about them and looking beyond them are two different things, at least to me. And when your 1st post in the thread was As much as I find stats interesting they don't mean much I’m sorry but what you’re telling me is, you personally think stats are pretty worthless.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Stats are highly subjective.

That statement is way too general, and that makes it undependable. Some stats are highly objective! “W’s” and “L’s” are totally objective and are the basis for the entire game. Runs, K’s, BB’s, HBP’s are completely objective. One may not agree with the umpire’s judgment creating them, but none-the-less, they are what they are and in the record book forever. Plate appearances, batters faced, outs, # pitches, balls put in play, 1st pitch strikes, whether or not a pitcher is a power or finesse pitcher is also objective. I could go on and on, but there’s no point. The fact is, while many are subjective, there are many baseball metrics that are objective too.

quote:

I believe I said I wasn't worried about son's stats.

Where did you say or even imply that?

quote:

The errors were made in college and in summer league so I wonder how many other errors there are.

That’s exactly how I understood what you wrote. He was in college and playing summer ball. That’s what makes worrying about any of those numbers is silly! I suppose all the games might have been scored by someone very good at it, and very interested in trying to make sure the book was as accurate as possible. But, having scored more than a game or two of summer ball where college players are playing, I can tell you that most of the time the quality of the scoring is about the same as it is for a 12U summer travel team. IOW, not very good. In fact, I can tell you that the quality of all college scoring is better than HS scoring, but much much poorer than professional ball. Remember, there’s a lot of colleges with very small programs that have all kinds of weird people scoring.

quote:

I saw several with other players as well.

I’m not at all surprised.

quote:

The college errors were all game sheets not adding up to summary stats.

And? The games didn’t mean anything! They were summer games!

quote:

His freshman year had 2 extension errors and 1 was corrected. I didn't say anything about that except here and I was surprised that tose kind of errors were made in D1 ball.

Why? What makes you believe D1 scorekeeping and stat generation is anything close to affiliated pro ball where there are checks and cross-checks before the data gets put into the data base? There are 2 D1 schools here with 30 miles of each other and both have had players scoring or volunteers scoring, with no care or worry other than that person is there. Ask the average D1 scorer if s/he looks at the NCAA scoring rules and likely as not you’ll get a blank stare!

quote:

If stats were so important how does a guy who is 2-9 with a double digit era get drafted ?

I guarantee you that if MLB believed the numbers were valid, the scouts would care!

quote:

Obviously they are not important to MLB scouts.

And how do you think MLB or college scouts choose which players to look at? Or do you think they just drive around looking for ball games?

quote:

As far as worrying about stats I don't but that doesn't mean I don't look at them. The fact is that stats can signify problems with mechanics and other things.

What kind of statement is that? You don’t worry about them, but you do look at them because they can signify problems! Well, what is it? Either stats have some significance and should be looked at, or they don’t.

I’m sure you won’t, but I’m asking you not to take this personally. You’re really no different than a lot of folks. You don’t seem to quite understand that baseball stats come in a million shapes and forms. Hearing that a player is a 20YO 6’1’/195# LH hitting RHP is at least 5 different stats. Knowing a player runs a 4.4 40 or can run home to 1st in 3.8 are also stats. Knowing the coach has a WPCT of .620 in league play is a stat. In fact, there’s not a whole lot about baseball that isn’t!

Where the big problems come in, is how accurately those stats are recorded, how closely to the rules they adhere, how well they’re presented, and how well the observer understands what s/he’s seeing.

Coach May,

You’ve truly hit the nail on the head. There are a gozillion factors that can affect statistics, and the difference in the quality of the levels is surely one of the things that can affect them the most.

But, the good analyst does everything s/he can to normalize the numbers. Heck, until MLB instituted BPF’s, people would try to compare things like Rockies starting pitching playing in Coors Field, with SF Giants starting pitching playing in Candlestick Park. No matter what anyone tried to do, the Giants P’s would always look better.

Similar things also happen in HS and college. But those things don’t make the stats invalid, they just skew them. As long as the person analyzing what s/he’s looking at takes that into consideration, they can still be very telling. But what really makes HS and college stats whacky, is that there is really very little quality control as far as the scorekeeping and data control goes.

And it’s a shame too, because there are a lot of HS SKs who do do a very good job. Trouble is, in the grand scheme of things, people categorize them all as terrible. But, that’s ok. All it does is give people like the coach I score for, that much more of an advantage.

quote:

Originally posted by SKeep:
Compute the number of K’s per inning for your boy. Unless he’s in at least the 1 per inning range, I doubt that he gets most of his outs by K.

Well, since you asked, he averaged 2.11 k's/inning in high school ball (139 in 66 ip), including one 21k 7-inning game. So yes, most of his outs were strikeouts. That won't happen in college and the Pac-10, I know, which explains my interest in this subject. Will he "K" more people up or down there? Be more effective up or down given his height? ..don't know..just wondering. My guess after reading all these posts is 50/50 is about right.

P.S. as an update Bum, Jr. took it upon himself to go up in the zone more in his last start of the Summer season and was much more effective with only a few hits and 12 or so k's. He looked much more his usual self that day.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Believe, plan, do.

Try

- Observe
- Orient
- Decide
- Act

Stats are simply results, and an accounting of occurences. They are very much influenced by so many factors. There are simple ones like ave, hr, rbi and era. However for those that like to analyze, I am sure there are stats about how a gut hit on days that he had diarahea.

Skeep it is obvious you don't understand what I am saying.
The most subjective stat is W/L record.
Stats are intersting to me because they can indicate a problem if they change significantly over a period of time. IE batting average drops significantly. Strikeouts increase etc. That indicates a mechanical issue may be occuring. I have always said that stats are very subjective and that most here understand.
My son's teams never kept stats for several reasons, some of which you mentioned. Its called garbage in gabage out. My son had several top D1 JCs and 4 years interested in him and we never provided any stats. In fact the colleges asked but also saud they couldn't care less about stats because they couldn't validate them and the competition/score keeper ability. That is where I get my attitude from and also from hanging abount MiLB for 10+ years. Also from talking to MLB scouts and coaches.
They care about projectability and sheer speed and power. Several good points have been made about the subjective nature of stats and maybe it is my background that says if you can't rely on the source the numbers don't mean much.
One error made to a pitcher was that he went in with a tie game 1 out and two on. Both runners scored which makes the pitcher he replaced the loser and the reliever was given the loss. That was a D1 game. The reliever was not the loser of the game as you know both runs go to the pitcher he releived.
Again its the old computer proverb . Garbage in garbage out.
The guy who was 2-9 and double digit era was drafted because he threw mid 90s. That trumps awful stats. He is in his second year in MiLB in Staten Island with RZ1s son.

rz's son is not in Staten Island.

I think that you and skeep are basically at teh same conclusions regarding stats kept on HS and college stats.

I haven't checked lately but he was last year with the Staten Island Yankees last year.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
Skeep it is obvious you don't understand what I am saying.

Obviously you aren’t communicating it well.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
The most subjective stat is W/L record.

How is either winning or losing subjective?

quote:

Stats are intersting to me because they can indicate a problem if they change significantly over a period of time. IE batting average drops significantly. Strikeouts increase etc. That indicates a mechanical issue may be occuring. I have always said that stats are very subjective and that most here understand.

Sorry, you’re losin’ me. If they aren’t valid, what they show may still be used, but its worth is less.

quote:

My son's teams never kept stats for several reasons, some of which you mentioned. Its called garbage in gabage out.

My son’s team’s from the time he was 8 had stats all over the place, and they were always trusted. The reason was, I made sure they were as valid as I could make them!

quote:

My son had several top D1 JCs and 4 years interested in him and we never provided any stats. In fact the colleges asked but also saud they couldn't care less about stats because they couldn't validate them and the competition/score keeper ability. That is where I get my attitude from and also from hanging abount MiLB for 10+ years. Also from talking to MLB scouts and coaches.

And what does that mean? It doesn’t mean that the math and the stats aren’t any good, it means that the SKing can’t be trusted. And who is responsible for all facets of a team? The manager/HC!

quote:

They care about projectability and sheer speed and power.

Of course that’s what they care about, but would they still not care about the numbers if the numbers could be trusted?

quote:

Several good points have been made about the subjective nature of stats and maybe it is my background that says if you can't rely on the source the numbers don't mean much.

So, there’s nothing at all any stats are good for in your mind because you don’t trust the source. Well, I find that mighty insulting because I’ll just bet that I know a lot more about keeping score and generating statistic than you do, and the numbers I generate at their very worst are far far better than anyone who’s just guessing.

quote:

One error made to a pitcher was that he went in with a tie game 1 out and two on. Both runners scored which makes the pitcher he replaced the loser and the reliever was given the loss. That was a D1 game. The reliever was not the loser of the game as you know both runs go to the pitcher he releived.

You’ve mentioned that same thing before. I guess it really sticks in your craw that it was your son that somehow got screwed. But why don’t you come up with a few more since its so prevalent? While you’re at it, how about listing the time umpires made mistakes in games, and what would really be cool is for you to list off how many times coaches made mistakes.

People make mistakes! What’s the big deal? If you really wanted to help the program instead of complaining about how its failed your boy, you would have brought the mistake to the attention of the HC, and offered your services as a SK to help eliminate such mistakes in the future.

quote:

Again its the old computer proverb . Garbage in garbage out.

It has nothing to do with GIGO. What it is, is people not willing to step up and make things better because they don’t realize how much work it is to do it correctly.

quote:

The guy who was 2-9 and double digit era was drafted because he threw mid 90s. That trumps awful stats. He is in his second year in MiLB in Staten Island with RZ1s son.

You’ve used that one too. But guess what? Throwing in the mid 90’s is a stat!

OOPS! I guess that screws up you whole argument.