Has anyone ever seen a PG grade of less than 7?

yes, I have seen PG grades of less than 7. A fair number of them actually.

 

But also you should know that if you score low you can ask PG to take your grade down.

 

Plus I don't think that is the current PG grading system exactly, but an earlier version.  If you go to the list of "top uncommitted players"  you'll see that the guys at the very bottom of the lists have scores of like 5, 5.5, 6. 

 

 

I'll be honest, I was very much a below average player in high school, and though this was quite a while ago, I got a 6 rating, which I thought was pretty high for me at the time... I'd probably give myself a 6 now lol.

I've seen below 7 as well.  I think the ratings are well done and generally a good reflection of the player, but I wouldn't let the number deter your son's desired path.

Wait there's ANOTHER baseball site? Don't share, I spend enough time here already!

BTW, here is PG's latest Rating System for grades. It has been updated since the list CaCo3Girl posted and this one seems much more reflective of the grades relative to where they may belong in the recruiting hierarchy. 

 

And yes, I have seen grades below 7 as well.


Perfect Game USA's Player Rating System

10 Potential very high draft pick and/or Elite level college prospect 
9 Potential top 10 round pick and/or highest level college prospect 
8 Potential draft pick and/or excellent college prospect 
7 College prospect, possible future draft pick with development 
6 Potential college prospect 
5 Possible College prospect and/or possible HS varsity 
4 HS JV 
3 Possible HS JV 
2 No prospect at this time 
1 The game is too dangerous 

People, my son hasn't been to a showcase.  I'm trying to gauge how this board thinks these numbers match up with what actually happens with the players.

i.e. Does an 8 actually get D1 attention? Does a 6 actually get to play in college?

I'm not sure I have seen anything below a 7 - maybe one 6.5.  The write-ups that accompany a 7 do not really seem to matchup with "potential low round pick" they often read as more of a "possible DII prospect".  On the other hand, there seem to be a good number of 9's and while these write-ups show excellent skills, not sure they meet "top 10 round draft pick" (which I assume means drafted out of high school).

 

As these require an invitation with some apparent selectivity, I would assume there is an internal cutoff of where the minimum rating should be.  I realize PG needs to fill the rosters but I am sure they prefer not to have many 5's or 6's in attendance in favor of 7's and 8's.

A former coach of my son's was rated an 8.5 by PG.  Was drafted out of HS.  forewent the draft,  Was drafted out of college.  Played several years in the minors.  As to the 6.0 he's not going to play at a D1 in all likelihood.  Put a PG rating is just one data point.   PGstaff who frequents this board is on record saying that they sometimes get things wrong.  PG is quite useful, but it's not the only measuring stick out there.

 

 

Here he is explaining their rating system:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q6tpEHpoRY

 

Yep, you can sort the list.  Lowest posted grades are 5.5  The others are blank, which I would assume means the player asked to have the grade removed.

This likely requires a longer answer than this.  As I've said many times, I highly recommend using the search button in the upper left of this site.  This topic has been covered over the years.  There is soooo much great content here....and most of it stands the test of time.

 

A lot depends on when the rating comes.  A player who is rated a 6 or 6.5, unless that rating comes very early and he improves a ton, IMO, will NOT be college baseball material.  Think of the rating system in some respects like some of the judging for Olympics.  Just by showing up and not tripping over oneself, a player can probably get a 6.  I doubt there has been a 5 or below given in a long, long time.  But, this is just based off of my experience, the amount of time I spend on PG and the number of profiles I see.  If a player doesn't receive at least a 7.5-8.0 at an initial showcase, I'd be concerned about whether he has the skills to play in college.  PG may disagree, but that is based on experience.

 

Also, keep in mind that a rating is just a point in time.  There are many examples of kids who were rated 7.5 or 8 early then end up at a 9 or even 10.  To have a rating "upgraded" or "updated", one must attend another showcase.  My son is actually a pretty good example.  I took him to a PG Showcase Summer after 9th grade.  He was rated a 2016 top prospect (size, projectable RHP), topped out at 81 and was given an 8 rating.  Since then, he has developed nicely, can touch 90 mph and is committed to a D1 and is ranked highly in our state and Top 500 nationally.  But, I've not taken him to another showcase (just a bunch of PG tournaments), so his rating is still an 8.0.  While there are no guarantees, I strongly suspect he would be rated higher, and possibly much higher, if I took him to another showcase.  Frankly, I wish PG would consider adjusting these ratings in situations where it is clear that a kid has advanced.

 

 

 

And what does a grade with a ".5" with it mean?  A 9.5 specifically.  

You don't want to go there.  A lot of "my 12u team is better than your 12u team" threads 

Call me crazy, but I think it means the player is in between and not clearly a - in your case - 9 or a 10.  It is an art, not a science, folks.  Same as a 9.7 being better than a 9.6 (or whatever) in figure skating.  Take it for what it is worth and don't read much into it.  There are many kids who will be high draft picks who have no rating.  Why? They never went to a PG showcase.  Happens less and less nowadays, but it happened a lot in the past.

I can only speak to my son's teammates but I have seen a kid with a 9 struggle to get any traction as well as a 7 and a kid with no rating commit to top programs. 

We can agree to disagree and right or wrong but I believe that college coach's trust their own ability to evaluate talent over all things. They might consider another's opinion but ultimately the thumbs up or thumbs down will be most heavily influenced by their opinion.

CaCo3,

To specifically answer your questions, my observations align with Bucsfan.  And be sure to watch the video link that Sluggerdad provided.  I think those two data points will best give you the info you are looking for.

In the video, as usual, Jerry admits occasional misses but understates how right they are with the vast majority.  I think the misses occur when players are particularly young and haven't developed near their potential yet.  I think most 8's would be borderline or not quite major or mid-major D1 potentially.  A 6 will have a great deal of work and development ahead if he hopes to see a college field unless it's a really weak college program.  That said, some players develop a bit more or less than expected in their late HS and early college years.  Some work particularly harder or particularly less toward achieving their potential.

I believe PGStaff has stated that it is fairly common to either take down or not post scores for players who rate fairly low (probably in the 5 to 6.5 range).

 

The grade scale, I believe, is generously slanted toward optimistic potential.

 

My perspective comes from having regularly checked grades for a period of several years of those who have played for me as well as those who played on showcase and scout teams with son and with others I follow. 

My take is that the overall rating is nice for public consumption, but means little in the eyes of a recruiter. The raw numbers and written evaluations carry weight, but that rating # is just eye candy.

Agree somewhat with Roothog. As to OP Question, yes there have been students with low ratings who have gone on to play D1. The rating may have come when the player was young and hasn't been to PG events/showcases last 2-3 years before graduation. I also know of a pitcher/hitter who is playing D1(multiple offers- one ACC,all state in HS) who doesn't have a PG rating.

Yes, scores of 8 and 8.5 play at D1s.

 

I know a young man who scored a 6.5 at a PG Showcase.  He was 14.

 

Nine months later he made unofficial visits to (2) ACC schools and an Atlantic-10.

 

Still uncommitted, but you get the point.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The score is relative to the rest of the player population in that graduating class, in the eyes of the PG recruiter. Think of a Bell Curve.

 

So if the majority of players are in that 4-7.5 range, then it's a very large recruiting pool relative to a very small number of open spots, assuming the total number of open spots have been filled by the higher scoring individuals. Possible? Yes, but improbable.

 

If college recruiters pay a minimal amount of attention to the PG score, then what's the value of a PG score? More than anything else, it's a metric that is used as a tool to benchmark improvement. Player X is an 8.5? OK, what needs to be done to get to a 9? How does he compare to other 9s? Once the gap is identified and parsed, then a plan can be put in place to attain a 9.

^^i do agree with this.

My son's rating was based primarily as a catcher.  He is committed as a pitcher.

3 follow up points that I totally agree with but that I thought are pretty obvious and, thus,  did not spell out:
1.  There are many, many, many outliers (my response was "directional" and speaking to the "middle of the bell curve" to provide some insight) => 9s that fizzle and can't go D1, 6.5 or 7s who develop and go Top 25/get drafted/make MLB
2. College and pro scouts do not rely on these ratings and have to see and judge for themselves (who would think otherwise?), and
3. A player who is rated, say a 7, then ends up ACC, SEC, PAC12, drafted, etc. is, in fact, not a 7 at the time of said commitment or draft. The rating is likely "stale", from 1 to 3 years prior.  To suggest otherwise would mean PG is way off the mark and doesn't know how to ID talent, and we all know they do.

Also note that a great player might have a bad game or a bad showing in a PG event.

Note too, that sometimes a bad showing can be due to trying to play with some type of injury that hasn't been disclosed.   Such was the case with my son when he played at Area Code where he was just a few weeks into recovery for an oblique muscle pull. He was at a stage where he could play, but it was obvious to me that it affected his play there and he didn't show nearly as strong as he usually did.  I felt bad about it, but he wanted so badly to participate and compete with such top level players I just thought we'd see and take it day by day.  As it turned out, I don't think it hurt him.  But it didn't help either in terms of impressing any of the recruiters and scouts.  

 

As others have eluded to, one event where performance is off doesn't really hurt a play.  But, surely if a player has a particularly good event (like having a very high score in a PG event), it will likely draw attention to those who haven't really noticed before.  That's why scouts and recruiters like to observe multiple games for a player to get an idea for the consistency of playing well or not.

9s and 10s we are very accurate

 

Grades are based on potential

 

We tend to grade a bit on the high side.

 

There have been 7s and 8s that played DI baseball and/or been drafted.

 

There are at least three Major League players we graded lower than 7.

 

Most every player that attends the PG Showcases has some level of college baseball ability.  Between the fee and travel costs, it doesn't make sense if a player lacks some kind of college ability.

 

There are many graded below a 6, but most of those don't appear on our website.

 

Truth is... We are good at what we do, but we certainly aren't perfect.

Thank you everyone for responding.  All of your points make a lot of sense.  I guess I always thought of PG grades as VERY accurate, and assumed if you get a 9 or a 10 you are going to play in college.  I had never seen the verbal explanation of what the numbers mean.

 

The thing that made my head glitch is the idea of some 2016 going to a showcase getting a 6 and because of that 6 he thinks he can and will play in college.  We battle on this board so much about parents wearing rose colored glasses....I wonder how many people have viewed their kids PG score and thought a 6 or a 7 proved they were good enough to play in college because that is what the explanation of the numbers says.

 

I'm not arguing whether or not the grade is accurate...I'm arguing whether or not the explanations are accurate, or if they just give false hope.

I'd just add that a rating may not directly get a kid recruited, but it does offer some credibility in the inital stages with a coach.  If a coach gets two consecutive phone calls or emails from kids, then goes and checks their PG rating - one is a 7 and one is a 9 - who do you think he is going to go see play first?  Which will get a little more benefit of the doubt and maybe a second or third look if they happen to have a mediocre day.  I don't think the number will get a kid an offer, but a good number sure helps in the process, especially in the initial stages or with a coach that might be in a different part of the country than the player.

Did you see the new list of explanations I posted a few posts back?  The new list is much more representative of what is going on, at least I think it is.  If you missed it, here it is again.

 

Perfect Game USA's Player Rating System

10 Potential very high draft pick and/or Elite level college prospect 
9 Potential top 10 round pick and/or highest level college prospect 
8 Potential draft pick and/or excellent college prospect 
7 College prospect, possible future draft pick with development 
6 Potential college prospect 
5 Possible College prospect and/or possible HS varsity 
4 HS JV 
3 Possible HS JV 
2 No prospect at this time 
1 The game is too dangerous 

One of the many benefits of attending a PG showcase, particularly for those players who are good but not necessarily top tier, is that they can sort of see where they measure up against other good players.  When it comes time for your son to attend, he will do so by comparing his grade to others he saw in attendance and perhaps others who he knows - more so than trying to evaluate how his grade is defined.

Perfect Game USA's Player Rating System

10 Potential very high draft pick and/or Elite level college prospect 
9 Potential top 10 round pick and/or highest level college prospect 
8 Potential draft pick and/or excellent college prospect 
7 College prospect, possible future draft pick with development 
6 Potential college prospect 
5 Possible College prospect and/or possible HS varsity 
4 HS JV 
3 Possible HS JV 
2 No prospect at this time 
1 The game is too dangerous

 

 

So I'm just a noob, and I've never been to a PG event, but based on the high school players I've seen and how things go for them after school it seems like there ought to be some daylight between HS and college talent.

 

Something more like:

 

10 - high draft pick and/or D1 star

9 - low draft pick, D1 starter

8 - D1 role player, D2 starter, D3 superstar, HS player of year.

7 - All Star in good HS division, possible D2 or D3 player.  JC also possible esp. if grades are an issue.

6 - HS Varsity All league 1st or 2nd team. Might make JC team as redshirt, 

5 - Very good varsity starter.  Cut from JC team.

etc....

In researching schools with my son, we've found quite a few players, especially pitchers, who are playing for D1 schools and don't have a PG rating at all. A few have pages on PG with some stats, but no rating. However, a lot do not show up on the PG site at all. I was a little surprised that there were so many.   

I believe you only get a rating if you participate in a showcase (stats are collected at tournaments).

Smitty, that is exactly the case with my son. 

I totally get that. I was just surprised at how many kids I found who landed a D1 roster spot without the PG showcase and rating. Especially the number of pitchers.   

k&k, do you attribute that to location (maybe not as good access to PG) or due to specifics schools/conferences or something else?

PG's ratings are better than yours because far less black and white and in a way more humble.  That's because they build in a certain degree of  uncertainty with words like "possible"  "potential"  "with development."   

 

Seems like that think of themselves as doing several things --  assessing the quality of your tools at a time; giving you information that suggest what you need to work on to get to the next level and projecting where some combination of hard work and maturation might take you.  

 

For players below the 9-10 level they aren't passing final judgments on a player. They know that players develop.  They know what it takes to develop.  They are trying to project into the future based on all sorts of things how a player might develop.

 

Plus the information isn't just in the scores but in the brief write-ups as well.   They say things like "excellent present range with room to expand as strength and speed increases"   for example.   

 

 

Delusional parents are a reality, but that's really not the fault of any evaluator or measuring standard, and there is no cure other than the reality that they will face in the coming years.  Much like a perfect SAT score is no guarantee that a student will attend an Ivy, neither does a good (or bad) PG grade guarantee playing (or not) at the next level.

We have a parent on my son's HS team who is completely delusional with his son's talent.  He received the camp email blast for the Stanford camp and immediately began throwing that in the HS coach's face as his son being "recruited" by Stanford.  His son is a rising Sr., made varsity as a backup last year (with an underclassman starting ahead of him) and likely projected for the same next season.  He's an outfielder only.  He plays no secondary position and doesn't pitch, so he's limited his options.  Frankly, while his dad believes he's one of the top players on the team and the best outfielder, in all honesty was the 4th best OF and somewhere around the 9th - 12th best player.  We currently have three DI SEC commits and just graduated a DI and DII with the 2015 class

 

He's not a bad player by any means.  He just isn't cracking the starting lineup.  I'm sure his dad will blame the coach, politics, etc., etc., but his PG grade is 7, which indicates he's a college prospect.  I would agree that he is.  He needs to add some strength and correct a few hitches, but he could certainly play college ball, just not in one of the top D1 conferences (Stanford most definitely included).

 

Now whatever his dad wants to make of his grade of 7 is up to him, but the grade is accurate based on my observation of the kid over the past three years.  He's not an 8 (Excellent college prospect), but could just as easily be considered a 6, (potential college prospect).  I could see where he would be graded a 7 from his single showcase based on his athleticism and whatever projectability was evident to the evaluators.  He has played in over a dozen PG tournaments over the years and been named to all-tournament teams twice.

 

I guess this is a REALLY lengthy way of saying that any false hope is in the eye of the beholder and how THEY want to perceive what the definition of the grades mean to them.

 

There is nothing that PG or any of us can do to fix that problem.  In fact, my solution is to just avoid the guy so I don't get roped into the one-sided conversation that would ensue.  He doesn't have any interest in hearing the truth from me or anyone else.  However, five years from now, reality will have revealed itself and he'll either be proven right, or confirm that politics, et al., were the reason his son didn't fulfill what should have been. 

SluggerDad,

 

Well, they have more experience. But I don't think your explanation negates my point.  Most good HS players do not play at the next level, and that divide doesn't show up in the ratings.

 

What would be interesting, and would give the numbers some bite, would be to know what percentage of players ranked at each grade go on to play college baseball and/or are drafted.

Mine too, but i cannot use location as a reason as we are in Atlanta, i really thought he had the stuff to get a deal based on his sophmore year/summer, college interest then and workout regimen/focus. I think about that $700 and the 3-4 invites ($2800 + expenses saved) we finally starting getting from PG after he was on the "map" with colleges and now use that money for a scooter for getting around campus, new set of golf clubs and whatever else he needs while over there in Clemson.