Say hi to Rinaldi for me. He is a good guy and a fine coach.
Scorekeep, may I suggest you argue in front of a mirror, it may be therapeutic. And more efficient.
Good gosh man, have a six-pack and watch some television.
Good gosh man, have a six-pack and watch some television.
I received an alert about this thread, and I just wanted to check in and say I hope you guys are enjoying some good-natured banter back and forth, not gettin' all upset at each other. (Scorekeeper, in case you are wondering why in the world some mom is sticking her nose in, I am the main moderator/administrator.)
I know a few of the posts here have been a little blunt, but truly it looks to me like all the participants in this thread can have a good time discussing the topic if no one gets too personal. (I enjoy reading the velocity discussions even though my son is past HS!) I'll assume you guys are working things out unless you send me another alert.
Julie
I know a few of the posts here have been a little blunt, but truly it looks to me like all the participants in this thread can have a good time discussing the topic if no one gets too personal. (I enjoy reading the velocity discussions even though my son is past HS!) I'll assume you guys are working things out unless you send me another alert.
Julie
Can I go on record as Not being the one to send the alert! Hate to be called a tattle tale! 
quote:Originally posted by Coach May:
Here is a stat. One kid throws 92 and wins. Another throws 82 and wins. Guess who I want on my team?
Who I want greatly depends upon how they got the win. One game doesn't make a season.
As I mentioned earlier, it is a tool vs skill assessment. A top level player has a balance of both. I don't think anyone suggested pitchers are evaluated only on velocity. There are acceptable ranges to be within to be effective. If a player shows ability at one, but not the other, an assessment needs to be made as to liklihood of being a more balanced player.
The ability for the tool guy to develop skill may depend on his ability to make changes, which is a mental part of the game.
The ability for the skill guy to develop tools may depend on his ability to make physical changes.
There have been success stories on both sides, and there have been failures on both sides to bolster arguments.
But, I'm guessing a scout is more confident in his own ability (or that of his organization) to take the tool guy and develop his skills more easeily than the other way around.
Getting back to the Scorekeeper comment about basing his argument on Sabermetrics (while saying he is only discussing the youth game, where Sabermetrics are pretty much useless) is an indcation he is just looking to keep the argument alive. I think he likes the attention, and to show himself how good a scorekeeper he is. Congratulations, you're a great scorekeeper, and congratulations for being recognized as that. But, that hardly justifies your to coming here to argue with anyone and everyone for the sole purpose of letting everyone see that.
But the stats at youth level are so inconclusive that they cannot be used to measure talent level for comparison purposes. I refer back to undisciplined hitters affecting everything from K ratios to 1st pitch strike ratios. You can destroy every stat at the youth level because of components which affect the game that just do not happen at a higher level. How about pitch counts and the need for a pitcher to get 5 outs per inning and the affect that that has on his effectiveness as the game and season go on? That does not even begin to address the level at which the game and/or opponent is playing.
The ability for the tool guy to develop skill may depend on his ability to make changes, which is a mental part of the game.
The ability for the skill guy to develop tools may depend on his ability to make physical changes.
There have been success stories on both sides, and there have been failures on both sides to bolster arguments.
But, I'm guessing a scout is more confident in his own ability (or that of his organization) to take the tool guy and develop his skills more easeily than the other way around.
Getting back to the Scorekeeper comment about basing his argument on Sabermetrics (while saying he is only discussing the youth game, where Sabermetrics are pretty much useless) is an indcation he is just looking to keep the argument alive. I think he likes the attention, and to show himself how good a scorekeeper he is. Congratulations, you're a great scorekeeper, and congratulations for being recognized as that. But, that hardly justifies your to coming here to argue with anyone and everyone for the sole purpose of letting everyone see that.
But the stats at youth level are so inconclusive that they cannot be used to measure talent level for comparison purposes. I refer back to undisciplined hitters affecting everything from K ratios to 1st pitch strike ratios. You can destroy every stat at the youth level because of components which affect the game that just do not happen at a higher level. How about pitch counts and the need for a pitcher to get 5 outs per inning and the affect that that has on his effectiveness as the game and season go on? That does not even begin to address the level at which the game and/or opponent is playing.
quote:Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
We should never confuse MPH with pitching ability.
That being said, it is a fact that no pitcher will be sharp every time out there.
A 90+ guy is more likely to fare well on those days when he isn't as sharp as usual, for the simple reason that he can have reasonable success just throwing it in there. The 75-80 guy cannot last long doing that. In fact, I would say you'd better be throwing above 85 to have any hope of getting away with it. HS hitters are just too good these days!
I want to say I agree with you 100%, and I would if you just didn’t imply that all HS hitters have the ability to chew up and spit out every 75-80 P, even if they’re just layin’ the ball in there.
Even if you take the state champion of any state you might choose, chances are, there’s gonna be a few kids in the lineup who aren’t gonna be what anyone would call much better than average hitters, if that.
But other than that, what you said makes very good sense to me.
I think a lot of us would agree that a typical high school team with three or four GOOD ball players are contenders and one with five or six will be State Champs, or close to it.
quote:Originally posted by bbscout:
I thought all the scorekeepers in Sacramento were the Mom's of the starting pitcher or the SS?
Evidently you’ve looked at the HS stats of players from this area!
Maybe this will tell you how I try to keep score.
In the 100+ HS games I scored for my son’s HS team, of the batters who had more than 25 ABs I scored, there were only 6 players in 3 years who batted cumulatively over .300. The highest was .379, and he got a ride to UC Davis.
Our team cumulative BA for 3,054 ABs was .281. Our opponents had a cumulative average of .271. But if we throw out the numbers for the team we played that only won 1 game at any level in 4 years, our cumulative BA would drop to .271 and our opponents average would go up to .275.
To me, at least that’s being pretty even handed, and boy did I take a lot of heat from our parents about that!
quote:Originally posted by bbscout:
Say hi to Rinaldi for me. He is a good guy and a fine coach.
Will definitely do!
You’re right, he is definitely a cut above most of the coaches in the area. I’m really looking forward to seeing what the kids’ll do this year. Its their 1st year of V ball, and he’s had them since they were frosh.
I think they might be able to pull off a .500 year. I suspect he’d be disappointed with that, but considering the league they’ll be playing in, I’d consider it a great start.
Were you around here when Franklin first got going? My son was a Jr the 1st time we played them, and I told people they were gonna be a serious contender within just a few years. I got to tell a lot of folks I told ya so last year! ;-)
If you have the occasion to do one of PG’s games, please stop by and say hi!
Say, you aren’t the guy Red Adams is always telling me about are you?
Scorekeeper you did not make me angry. I respect everyones opinion. I dont get angry very often. I get angry when kids dont hustle or disrespect the game. But that is not very often.
quote:Originally posted by wayback:Getting back to the Scorekeeper comment about basing his argument on Sabermetrics (while saying he is only discussing the youth game, where Sabermetrics are pretty much useless) is an indcation he is just looking to keep the argument alive. I think he likes the attention, and to show himself how good a scorekeeper he is. Congratulations, you're a great scorekeeper, and congratulations for being recognized as that. But, that hardly justifies your to coming here to argue with anyone and everyone for the sole purpose of letting everyone see that.
If you can find where I was saying I was only discussing the youth game, I’d appreciate you pointing it out. I’m pretty sure I was saying I wasn’t only thinking of the high level game.
The Sabermetric argument was only intended to show that good numbers can be used as very good predictors.
What I like to do is stick my finger in the eye of someone who tries to say numbers won’t work, just because. They will work for a lot of things, and can easily be used to refute the dogmatic views of hardheads who think they’re perceptions are infallible.
Is it a crime that I’m proud I do a good job? Do you climb on everyone else’s back who trots out their resume trying to make a point?
quote:Originally posted by wayback:But the stats at youth level are so inconclusive that they cannot be used to measure talent level for comparison purposes. I refer back to undisciplined hitters affecting everything from K ratios to 1st pitch strike ratios. You can destroy every stat at the youth level because of components which affect the game that just do not happen at a higher level. How about pitch counts and the need for a pitcher to get 5 outs per inning and the affect that that has on his effectiveness as the game and season go on? That does not even begin to address the level at which the game and/or opponent is playing.
You’re right, but you didn’t go quite far enough. It isn’t just the stats at the youth level, 13U that are inconclusive, it’s the same thing for the HS and to a large degree the college level too!
Anytime you see the book the stats will come from being kept in a dugout, you can pretty much bet the house the numbers will be invalid, of for no other reason than the scoring isn’t done IAW the rule set the game is being played under.
Is it my fault too that no one feels its necessary to teach players the rules, let alone those being asked to keep score?
You’re pretty much taking the same high and mighty position most other people do. Shoot the messenger!
Guys like you abound in the bleachers of every park in the world. The ump makes a call you don’t agree with and they stink, don’t know the rules, or are out of position. The same thing happens with SKs. They’ll score an error on a ball your kid hit, or won’t score an error on a ball hit off your kid, and they suck and they don’t know what they’re talking about!
Well, get your butt out there and become the umpire everyone thinks never misses a call, or show up for every game to keep score so the numbers will be consistent. If you do either, everyone and the game will be much better for it.
quote:Originally posted by Coach May:
Scorekeeper you did not make me angry. I respect everyones opinion. I dont get angry very often. I get angry when kids dont hustle or disrespect the game. But that is not very often.
If that’s true, You have my sincere apology for misinterpreting what I read.
I’m taking a pretty good but whompin’ around here, and most of its because the folks on this board aren’t used to the way I write. And since I’m certainly not used to the way they do ether, its causing a lot of finger pointing because of simple misinterpretations.
I know that will eventually go away, and in the mean time I have no problem at all with apologizing for erroneous conceptions. I’m just getting a little bit rubbed raw when no one else will try to meet me half way.
Scorekeeper continue to post and speak your mind. If everyone agreed with oneanother here it would be too boring for me. I respect everyones opinion and I learn from everyone here. I do not always agree with my fellow posters and they do not always agree with me. I have been blasted before and Im sure I will again. What makes this site so special is we all love baseball and we all care enough to be here. Please continue to be a part of our baseball community and believe me when I say it is never personal with me. We all have opinions and they are all valuable.
SK quote:
"If you can find where I was saying I was only discussing the youth game, I’d appreciate you pointing it out. I’m pretty sure I was saying I wasn’t only thinking of the high level game."
Well, let me help you out pal:
SK quote:
"All I was trying to point out was that it isn’t easy using stats to evaluate anything, and because of that, it isn’t done very much, at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"
I don't see you including the high level game. In fact, you say: "at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"
Looks pretty clear to me.
SK quote:
Is it my fault too that no one feels its necessary to teach players the rules, let alone those being asked to keep score?
Who's blaming you for anything?
SK quote:
You’re pretty much taking the same high and mighty position most other people do. Shoot the messenger!
Your message is that you argue for the sake of arguing. Quick to point out to to others...."...that's not what I said". Then you twist their words into something they didn't say, and try to use those words in your argument. You're quite comical.
SK quote:
Guys like you abound in the bleachers of every park in the world. The ump makes a call you don’t agree with and they stink, don’t know the rules, or are out of position. The same thing happens with SKs. They’ll score an error on a ball your kid hit, or won’t score an error on a ball hit off your kid, and they suck and they don’t know what they’re talking about!
I don't know what the heck you're talking about here (there you go twisting words, like you accuse others of doing). But, I said umping at youth level is not as good as pro level. How you twist that to mean I gripe about calls is beyond me. I never complain about calls. Never! That being said, are you saying youth umps are as good as MLB umps? Thus making the balls and strikes reliable for your great stat keeping? C'mon pal, be real. Nor do I question the scorekeeper, which for many years was me (Ahhhhh! BTW, I was quite good at it.) Or, is that just your condescending tone you use with anyone who questions the great Oz, I mean Scorekeeper.
SK quote:
Well, get your butt out there and become the umpire everyone thinks never misses a call, or show up for every game to keep score so the numbers will be consistent. If you do either, everyone and the game will be much better for it.
There you go again. You seem to have a sore spot with the ump thing.
You need to develop some of that California Cool us East Coaster's her about. You sound like a heart attack waiting to happen.
"If you can find where I was saying I was only discussing the youth game, I’d appreciate you pointing it out. I’m pretty sure I was saying I wasn’t only thinking of the high level game."
Well, let me help you out pal:
SK quote:
"All I was trying to point out was that it isn’t easy using stats to evaluate anything, and because of that, it isn’t done very much, at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"
I don't see you including the high level game. In fact, you say: "at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"
Looks pretty clear to me.
SK quote:
Is it my fault too that no one feels its necessary to teach players the rules, let alone those being asked to keep score?
Who's blaming you for anything?
SK quote:
You’re pretty much taking the same high and mighty position most other people do. Shoot the messenger!
Your message is that you argue for the sake of arguing. Quick to point out to to others...."...that's not what I said". Then you twist their words into something they didn't say, and try to use those words in your argument. You're quite comical.
SK quote:
Guys like you abound in the bleachers of every park in the world. The ump makes a call you don’t agree with and they stink, don’t know the rules, or are out of position. The same thing happens with SKs. They’ll score an error on a ball your kid hit, or won’t score an error on a ball hit off your kid, and they suck and they don’t know what they’re talking about!
I don't know what the heck you're talking about here (there you go twisting words, like you accuse others of doing). But, I said umping at youth level is not as good as pro level. How you twist that to mean I gripe about calls is beyond me. I never complain about calls. Never! That being said, are you saying youth umps are as good as MLB umps? Thus making the balls and strikes reliable for your great stat keeping? C'mon pal, be real. Nor do I question the scorekeeper, which for many years was me (Ahhhhh! BTW, I was quite good at it.) Or, is that just your condescending tone you use with anyone who questions the great Oz, I mean Scorekeeper.
SK quote:
Well, get your butt out there and become the umpire everyone thinks never misses a call, or show up for every game to keep score so the numbers will be consistent. If you do either, everyone and the game will be much better for it.
There you go again. You seem to have a sore spot with the ump thing.
You need to develop some of that California Cool us East Coaster's her about. You sound like a heart attack waiting to happen.
quote:Originally posted by wayback:
Well, let me help you out pal:
SK quote:
"All I was trying to point out was that it isn’t easy using stats to evaluate anything, and because of that, it isn’t done very much, at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"
I don't see you including the high level game. In fact, you say: "at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"
Looks pretty clear to me.
First of all why don’t you quit posturing by using words and phrases intended to do nothing but cause problems. I am not your PAL!
Second, although HS ball is definitely youthful to me, I don’t see it ordinarily included in the term “youth ball”.
But if it will make you feel like a big man, I’ll be glad to admit I completely misspoke. Happy now?
quote:Originally posted by wayback:
Who's blaming you for anything?
Evidently I thought you were blaming me for all the ills of scorekeeping the world over.
quote:Originally posted by wayback:
Your message is that you argue for the sake of arguing. Quick to point out to to others...."...that's not what I said". Then you twist their words into something they didn't say, and try to use those words in your argument. You're quite comical.
Excuse me? You’re the one doing all the twisting and attacking for no good reason I can determine.
quote:Originally posted by wayback:
I don't know what the heck you're talking about here (there you go twisting words, like you accuse others of doing). But, I said umping at youth level is not as good as pro level. How you twist that to mean I gripe about calls is beyond me. I never complain about calls. Never! That being said, are you saying youth umps are as good as MLB umps? Thus making the balls and strikes reliable for your great stat keeping? C'mon pal, be real. Nor do I question the scorekeeper, which for many years was me (Ahhhhh! BTW, I was quite good at it.) Or, is that just your condescending tone you use with anyone who questions the great Oz, I mean Scorekeeper.
Just for the record, you said:
Other stats can be meaningless at lower levels because of poor discipline by hitters, poor umping, poor defense affecting pitch counts which in turn affects performance later in game, pitchers overused and also playing other positions, etc.
Wouldn’t want to be accused of misquoting or twisting.
But, that statement never entered my mind. All I could think of is all the games I’ve sat there and had to listen to people who are legends in their own mind, regaling everyone near them with their great expertise and insight.
You are the only person I’ve ever heard of who has NEVER complained about an umpire’s call. I’m better than most, but even I have had my doubts out loud.
quote:Originally posted by wayback:
There you go again. You seem to have a sore spot with the ump thing.
You need to develop some of that California Cool us East Coaster's her about. You sound like a heart attack waiting to happen.
What I have is a sore spot for those who can’t or won’t try to do better what they point out in others.
I think I’ve been pretty cool just dealing with someone like you over this stuff. Now that you’ve shown the big bad California dude who’s really the boss around here, you act like a grown up.
Congratulations! You win! Yo da man!
Scorekeeper,
I am getting the distinct impression from your public posts and your PMs to me that you might have come on the site with an agenda other than talking baseball.
Would you please take another look at the Board Manners page of our site and then send me another PM? Thanks.
I am getting the distinct impression from your public posts and your PMs to me that you might have come on the site with an agenda other than talking baseball.
Would you please take another look at the Board Manners page of our site and then send me another PM? Thanks.
Other than being a new guy on the block and taking a stand or two, I don't understand what SK had done to deserve the attacks. Sure he can come on strong at times. But no more so than quite a few others on this board (including myself).
The man has a good deal of knowledge. Yes, his posts are long. So what. If someone's attention span can't handle that, then don't read them.
This board has a way of ganging up on new posters. We need to back off that some and cut new folks a little slack.
The man has a good deal of knowledge. Yes, his posts are long. So what. If someone's attention span can't handle that, then don't read them.
This board has a way of ganging up on new posters. We need to back off that some and cut new folks a little slack.
MN-Mom,
It would appear so IMO.
Seems like every post has at least one - if not more than one - "cyber body slams" in it.
Doesnt make a difference what the topic is - just the same repetitive pattern.
I believe I see Chuck Barris - waiting in the wings. LOL
It would appear so IMO.
Seems like every post has at least one - if not more than one - "cyber body slams" in it.
Doesnt make a difference what the topic is - just the same repetitive pattern.
I believe I see Chuck Barris - waiting in the wings. LOL
Texan,
This new "poster" - asked some personal questions - and when he got some answers - he responded like an immature child.
And that may have been his best post. LOL
This new "poster" - asked some personal questions - and when he got some answers - he responded like an immature child.
And that may have been his best post. LOL
quote:Originally posted by itsinthegame:
... he responded like an immature child.
Well, he is far from alone...
Yeah - thats another brilliant one liner.
LOL
LOL
And while we are at it - why didnt he answer the same question he posed to me?
I answered it. Very specifically.
And when I asked him to answer the very same question - he threw out one liners - and another litany of diversions.
How totally bogus.
IMO.
I answered it. Very specifically.
And when I asked him to answer the very same question - he threw out one liners - and another litany of diversions.
How totally bogus.
IMO.
Back to the original question.
Did a quick and dirty tally of the PG National Underclass (held 12/06). Looked at '08 pitchers. Before anyone nitpicks, I may well have missed one or two (or three even). Or inadvertently included an '09. Or otherwise have messed up.
Of the 111 '08 pitchers:
Average: 83 mph
Mode: 82 mph
Median: 83 mph
Maximum: 94 mph
Minimum: 70 mph
73 of the 111 were at 85 mph or below.
22 of the 111 were in the 70's.
75 of the 111 were in the 80's.
14 of the 111 were in the 90's.
I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.
FWIW
Did a quick and dirty tally of the PG National Underclass (held 12/06). Looked at '08 pitchers. Before anyone nitpicks, I may well have missed one or two (or three even). Or inadvertently included an '09. Or otherwise have messed up.
Of the 111 '08 pitchers:
Average: 83 mph
Mode: 82 mph
Median: 83 mph
Maximum: 94 mph
Minimum: 70 mph
73 of the 111 were at 85 mph or below.
22 of the 111 were in the 70's.
75 of the 111 were in the 80's.
14 of the 111 were in the 90's.
I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.
FWIW
quote:I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.
Wonder what % of HS players ever go to ANY showcase, let along one that elite and expensive. Maybe 10%. Probably less. Pitchers who go are those who feel they have good "showcase appeal," mostly meaning they throw hard.
Even then, 83 mph is average at that event.
I'll guess that 80% of 90mph hurlers have been to one or more showcases versus <10% of sub-70mph pitchers.
I would guess that you are in the ballpark on those figures.
Texan and Micdsguy,
You very well could be correct. But if you want to see the most mind boggling numbers ever, checkout these results from The PG National held at U of Arkansas this past June. Thought you might enjoy these crazy numbers.
PG National June 06
All high school pitchers
98 total pitchers
All 98 Were 86 MPH or higher
31 Were in the 80S
67 Were in the 90S
16 Were 94 or higher
25 LHP average – 90.32 MPH
73 RHP average – 91.30 MPH
Total average of 98 pitchers – 91.05 mph
This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.
I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.
You very well could be correct. But if you want to see the most mind boggling numbers ever, checkout these results from The PG National held at U of Arkansas this past June. Thought you might enjoy these crazy numbers.
PG National June 06
All high school pitchers
98 total pitchers
All 98 Were 86 MPH or higher
31 Were in the 80S
67 Were in the 90S
16 Were 94 or higher
25 LHP average – 90.32 MPH
73 RHP average – 91.30 MPH
Total average of 98 pitchers – 91.05 mph
This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.
I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.
quote:Originally posted by micdsguy:
Wonder what % of HS players ever go to ANY showcase, let along one that elite and expensive. Maybe 10%. Probably less. Pitchers who go are those who feel they have good "showcase appeal," mostly meaning they throw hard.
Even then, 83 mph is average at that event.
I'll guess that 80% of 90mph hurlers have been to one or more showcases versus <10% of sub-70mph pitchers.
With a little bit of rough math, some crude assumptions, and perhaps a little help from PGStaff, we can prolly get a reasonable number.
According to the High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the NFHS during the 2005-06 season, there were 470,671 baseball participants, in 15,290 schools.
See: http://www.nfhs.org/web/2006/09/participation_in_high_s...ain_confirms_nf.aspx
Since we don’t know how many total HS teams there are, we have to play some games.
Using the above numbers, it works out to almost 31 players per school. Based on my meager experience, that works out to something less than 3 teams per school, since most HS’s have at least 15 players per team, so let’s call it 2 teams per school. That would mean there are approximately 30,580 total teams. Fr, Jv, and V.
Again, based on my limited experience, I’d say there might be an average of 6 P’s per team who get more than a few token or mop up innings. That would be 183,000+ pitchers. I suppose an argument could be made that in most cases, only V P’s have the skills necessary to even bother going through the expense of a showcase, but for the sake of trying to answer micdsguy’s above quoted initial question, its immaterial.
So assuming that 183K number is reasonable, all that would have to happen is we’d need to know how many different, not total, P’s went to showcases at all. Very likely, since PG is by far the big dawg in show case providers, if PGStaff could tell us how many different kids went to their showcases, we’d begin to get a much clearer picture.
Wow...those numbers are pretty scary.
That must've been some showcase.
PGStaff....you have a PM.
That must've been some showcase.
PGStaff....you have a PM.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.
That was one of my points.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.
Don't doubt your numbers, obviously. But what percent does 98 pitchers constitute of all the HS pitchers in the country?
Pretty miniscule, I would think. According to this site, there are approximately 455,000 baseball players. I would estimate that approximately 25-30% of them pitch. So you are talking about 0.09% of the country's pitchers who attended the National. Hardly what we could call "average". Certainly shows the quality of athlete PG is drawing.
PGStaff: Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.
Did those kids have to pay you to attend?
Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas). Where did names come from for the invitation list?
--
183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.
Did those kids have to pay you to attend?
Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas). Where did names come from for the invitation list?
--
183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.
quote:Originally posted by micdsguy:
Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.
If you didn't throw at least 86, you weren't invited.
90 is much rarer when you consider that virtually all kids who throw 90 do SOME HS pitching. So you should consider that 500 at 90mph to be from a universe of 470,000 "baseball participants" and not just 183,000 pitchers.
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.
quote:Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.
Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?
quote:PGStaff: Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.
Yes
Did those kids have to pay you to attend?
Yes
Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas).
Yes
Where did names come from for the invitation list?
Our core business is scouting. We rank players. We invite the players we would rank the highest. Our job is to know who the best prospects are. The names come off of our own list, with some help from some friendly MLB Scouting departments.
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183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.
500 is probably tretching it a bit. I'd say about half that would be closer in most years. No matter how you look at it, it is a very small percentage.
quote:If you didn't throw at least 86, you weren't invited.
Texan, We had reason to believe all the pitchers who were invited would at least touch 90. It just never works out that way.
quote:Originally posted by Scorekeeper:quote:Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.
Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?
If the pitchers who have good command also have a good live arm, then they would get the attention of scouts. If they throw loli pops, they won't get any attention. If you throw 87-88 with command, you will get attention. If you throw 80-81 with command, you won't
quote:quote:
Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.
Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?
scorekeeper,
Yes, everyone cares about command and control... They jus care about it a whole lot more when a pitcher can throw 90+. Why would anyone think the pitchers mentioned lacked command and control?
One, a high school pitcher from Arizona threw mid 90s. As a junior in high school he struck out 122 and walked 8. At 6'7 his best pitch is the slider.
And again we must differentiate between the college prospect and the pro prospect---they don't necessarily get lumped together
I was kinda askin’ tongue in cheek, but I’ve always felt that if someone was so gifted with the kind of command it would take to be in the top .1% of all HS P’s, he’d would have to have value on that alone. Of course that’s assuming he can throw the ball with any kind of velocity, if he’s not a KB thrower.
Unfortunately, as I’ve repeatedly said, there is no objective way to measure command that I know of, so the question is pretty moot. After all, its not like there’s a target up there with points awarded for getting closest to the bull’s eye, is there. ;-)
But all the arguing aside, from what I’ve been told and seen, a player who is in the top .1% in any baseball skill is a valuable commodity. Speed, fielding ability, velocity, power, or anything else at that level will get somebody’s attention.
Unfortunately, as I’ve repeatedly said, there is no objective way to measure command that I know of, so the question is pretty moot. After all, its not like there’s a target up there with points awarded for getting closest to the bull’s eye, is there. ;-)
But all the arguing aside, from what I’ve been told and seen, a player who is in the top .1% in any baseball skill is a valuable commodity. Speed, fielding ability, velocity, power, or anything else at that level will get somebody’s attention.
quote:And again we must differentiate between the college prospect and the pro prospect---they don't necessarily get lumped together
TRhit
TR, That is a very good point, I think I understand what you mean, but I believe the majority of those referred to above will in fact end up in college. Even though they are good pro prospects.
One point that always seems to get lost in these velocity discussions is... Maybe about 100, or even less, pitchers will be drafted and signed out of high school in a year. Yet we all know there are many more good pitchers than that. The DIs don't get them all, but those are the ones they are looking for.
I could be wrong, but I keep hearing about all these DI pitchers who throw in the 70s. Who and where are they? I'm sure there are a few, but I just don't see it! Are people looking at curveball or off speed velocities? If that were true about those 70 something mph pitchers, then the average high school pitcher is a DI prospect! (Back to the original topic) By some of the guesstimates I read, the below average high school pitcher is a DI prospect at that velocity, if he can pitch.
I just wish someone would tell me who all these 70 mph guys are that are being recruited and pitching at the DI level.
Isn't the fastball still the main pitch in baseball? Without it, the other stuff isn't as effective. Can a "good" fastball be in the 70s? I'm just asking?
I don't mean this to discourage any young pitcher. If they throw in the 70s, they should work at increasing their velocity. Or they should gear in on the majority of colleges, the small colleges, which far outnumber the DIs.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
Can a "good" fastball be in the 70s? I'm just asking?
Theoretically, yes.
It would have to move like crazy (and late) and ideally you'd pair it up with a change-up that was virtually indistinguishable from it (but slow enough to still screw a guy up).
It would also be nice if the guy had a 12-6 hit-me-if-you-can curveball.
All of that is possible, but asking a lot.
PGStaff,
You’ve heard someone say there were P’s throwing in the 70’s that were recruited? As bad as I am, I’ve never ever heard anything like that. I’ve seen more than a few walk on college P’s who couldn’t hit 80 with a big tailing wind, but never one recruited.
I don’t know if a “good” FB can be in the 70’s, but does it take a “good” FB to get out every college hitter?
I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!
And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.
You’ve heard someone say there were P’s throwing in the 70’s that were recruited? As bad as I am, I’ve never ever heard anything like that. I’ve seen more than a few walk on college P’s who couldn’t hit 80 with a big tailing wind, but never one recruited.
I don’t know if a “good” FB can be in the 70’s, but does it take a “good” FB to get out every college hitter?
I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!
And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
Texan, We had reason to believe all the pitchers who were invited would at least touch 90. It just never works out that way.
Awww, I was just kidding you a little...
quote:Originally posted by Scorekeeper:
I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!
And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.
Scorekeeper - just my observations.
I am now in that position with a son that plays D-2 ball. And I wouldnt get ticked off at what other people say. First - they arent playing the game - they are talking - and sometimes writing. But they aint playing. They are not "In the game" - LOL
Second - and as you well know - a quick peek at the stats - the MLB rosters - and the backgrounds of the players will tell you all you need to know about this issue.
It is sometimes difficult to accurately express opinions on a messageboard.
I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.
scorekeeper,
If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!
I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.
scorekeeper,
If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!
Here is just one example of many around the country. I have a sr that is a RHP also very good posistion player. He is 6'3 180 runs a 6.8 60 and hit 8 hrs last year and drove in 38 runs in 29 games. At a recent showcase he threw 94 mph on a jugs and 92 on a stalker consistently. He will not be going to a D-1 school he will be attending a JC in the area. Why? Grades. He has been contacted by several D-1 programs but the fact is he does not have the academic requirements to attend. How many more players are there out there like this? How many late bloomers are out there? Guys who go D-3 or D-2 that came out of HS a little small or a little slow or maybe they were mid 80's guys and after a couple of years in college took off. There are numerous guys playing at the non D-1 level that are outstanding players. Heck we had a kid a few years ago that sat the bench and rarely took the hill. I think he pitched 6 or 7 innings his sr year. He was a 80 mph guy but had good size at 6-3 around 200lbs. He walked on at a local JC and by his second year was in the starting rotation throwing 88. He then transferred to a D-1 program and pitched two years there earning all conference honors. There are alot of different ways to reach your goals. Its not where you start the race but how you finish it.
I think for the kids out there who wont be going to a D-1 school to play baseball - or who will be - but wont be seeing alot of playing time - the posts from people like PG and Coach May - (guys who are as totally immersed in the game as a person can be) - are actually encouraging for these players.
What most people - (particularly those who dont "live with the game" or are "in the game") - say or write means nothing.
Work hard - play hard - and enjoy it. That is what matters IMO.
What most people - (particularly those who dont "live with the game" or are "in the game") - say or write means nothing.
Work hard - play hard - and enjoy it. That is what matters IMO.
Coach May,
That's what I tell 'em at the golf course all the time.
"It's not how you drive but how you arrive" JK
Nick Markakis is a good JUCO example. He "just signed a huge contract with Orioles" yesterday.
A far cry from Young Harris College. Another one that comes to mind is Adam Loewen from Chipola who is also on the doorstep. peace shep
That's what I tell 'em at the golf course all the time.
"It's not how you drive but how you arrive"
JKNick Markakis is a good JUCO example. He "just signed a huge contract with Orioles" yesterday.
A far cry from Young Harris College. Another one that comes to mind is Adam Loewen from Chipola who is also on the doorstep. peace shep
quote:Originally posted by itsinthegame:
Scorekeeper - just my observations.
I am now in that position with a son that plays D-2 ball. And I wouldnt get ticked off at what other people say. First - they arent playing the game - they are talking - and sometimes writing. But they aint playing. They are not "In the game" - LOL
Second - and as you well know - a quick peek at the stats - the MLB rosters - and the backgrounds of the players will tell you all you need to know about this issue.
Yeah, my brain knows that’s true, but after watching my son overcome the obstacles he did, which no kid should ever have to do, I became much more attuned than most, to the angst those ignorant fools “talking”, could do to kids and families.
There’s no way of knowing how many players that kind of ignorance causes to leave the game, and it’s a terrible reason for kids to stop playing. The worst thing is, it doesn’t just happen at the college level, it happens as low as when kids just aren’t good enough to make the All Star traveling team from their little league, and it continues from there.
I like to see the message that every player who loves the game, should do his best to keep playing! Kids who get to play for the best, with the best, and against the best, certainly have advantages. But no matter if it’s a big D1 school like USC, or a tiny JC in North Dakota, its still baseball, and no one knows what’s gonna happen between that HS Sr year and that last year of college.
My daddy told me "Dont come to me with excuses boy, bring me solutions or shut the hell up"! Thats not a joke thats the truth. I refuse to allow anyone to controll my destiny, period. I will do that. My children have been taught the same thing. There will always be skeptics. There will always be people who doubt you. There will always be people who will throw roadblocks in your way. And life itself will throw obstacles in your way. SO WHAT!!! No fn excuses , they mean nothing to me. If you want it go do it. Hell everyone has a million reasons why they didnt do this , couldnt do that. I frankly could careless about excuses. Bring me solutions.
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
It is sometimes difficult to accurately express opinions on a messageboard.
TRUER WORDS WERE NEVER SPOKEN!
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.
I don’t think anyone on this board would belittle any college or any college player for any reason. Once you get to the point where that level becomes real, you realize just how hard it is to get there. But it does happen the lower level you are away from college. [/QUOTE]
quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
scorekeeper,
If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!
Regarding what Coach May said, the two hardest throwers in our league are committed to JC ball.. because of grades.
It's too bad, because they are affable, likeable kids who communicate well. They're not dummies, and they're not bad-apples. They've been playing select ball their entire lives and it makes me wonder why they didn't put a lick of effort into their homework!
I think that, then I look back at myself at age 17. Had to go into the military to get some discipline, then come out and pay my own way through college. For some of these kids, they just need time to mature and they'll be okay. DI as a freshman is not for everyone.
It's too bad, because they are affable, likeable kids who communicate well. They're not dummies, and they're not bad-apples. They've been playing select ball their entire lives and it makes me wonder why they didn't put a lick of effort into their homework!
I think that, then I look back at myself at age 17. Had to go into the military to get some discipline, then come out and pay my own way through college. For some of these kids, they just need time to mature and they'll be okay. DI as a freshman is not for everyone.
JUCOs are full of brainy players who got only one or two scholarship offers to PLAY college ball. In terms of baseball, most D-3s are far inferior to top JUCO baseball programs. And it is a hoot to say you have a full scholarship to play, even if the school is nearly free to begin with. Many kids just want to stay around town.
Financially, a 20% scholy to a $40k D-1 is a great financial deal for the fancy university but not for Mom and Dad. Especially if junior sits for two years.
Many kids--even from JUCOs-- will go on to graduate school in time. Where a student spends his first two years isn't important in the long term.
Financially, a 20% scholy to a $40k D-1 is a great financial deal for the fancy university but not for Mom and Dad. Especially if junior sits for two years.
Many kids--even from JUCOs-- will go on to graduate school in time. Where a student spends his first two years isn't important in the long term.
A significant portion of the very best players in Texas go JUCO so they will remain draft eligible, rather than having to wait until after their Junior year.
Sometimes we throw out the "D1" term, thinking about the top D1's in the country. In reality, there are more than a few weak D1's out there. And some strong JUCO, D2, D3 & NAIA programs.
Sometimes we throw out the "D1" term, thinking about the top D1's in the country. In reality, there are more than a few weak D1's out there. And some strong JUCO, D2, D3 & NAIA programs.
Are there truly strong D-3 programs (except when a school lucks into a couple of really strong pitchers who bloomed late.
I've looked at the bios of players on our local D-3s. Most players had pretty pedestrian baseball resumes in HS. Bench types. Seems many of the better players come in as JUCO transfers during the junior year. Ivy Leagues may be a bit different.
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No question Top D-2s can be ferocious. Plenty of Sunbelt JUCOs could regularly beat low D-1s
I've looked at the bios of players on our local D-3s. Most players had pretty pedestrian baseball resumes in HS. Bench types. Seems many of the better players come in as JUCO transfers during the junior year. Ivy Leagues may be a bit different.
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No question Top D-2s can be ferocious. Plenty of Sunbelt JUCOs could regularly beat low D-1s
