High School Pitching Velocity

15 yrs- 65-70
16 yrs- 70-75
17 yrs- 80
18 yrs- mid 80's

That would be the average IMO. Now the studs would be 5-10 mph more probably.

Not to sound rude, but in my opinion, Bustamove is way off. I would think it would be more like..

15 yrs-70
16 yrs-74
17 yrs-77
18 yrs-80

I know you're going to look at this and say you can't give one exact number but just give or take a couple mph and that's average or maybe slightly above average.

nd, If I'm way off then how come our numbers are almost similar?

quote:

Originally posted by PoteetHSbaseballfan:
I need some feedback here. What would be considered a good average fastball for a 15 year old to throw? I am not talking the phenom studs, I am talking about the good serviceable pitchers. The 2nd and 3rd guys in the rotation. Not only the 15s but also the 16s 17s and 18s.

A good one would be one that the hitters swing and miss at.

Those are the best kind. IMO.

ND, I have nothing to base this on, but I'd agree with your assessment.

Mid 80s is probably a bit swift. There are plenty of guys doing it, but IMO there are more throwing in the lower 80s.

high school average id say is like 75-78 for varsity. 65-75 for jv and 60-75 for frosh soph

Bustamove, I agree, you're not way off. Sorry, my mistake. I think your velocity for an 18 year old is way off though. 85 is not average, more like 80. I'm 16 and throw mid 70's, although I don't pitch anymore. This was considered average/slightly above average. I've seen varsity games where the pitcher was clocked in the low 80's and he seemed to be throwing with above average velocity compared to other kids I've seen.

Maybe our high school league is a strong league, however, we have three pitcherson our high school team who throw mid 80's to low 90's. We also have a number of other pitchers in our league who throw mid 80's and above. These readings are by college and pro scouts.

I believe you. Some leagues are stronger than others, though. You may be in a 6-A league, others in single A.

Peak MPH's on our team last spring ran top to bottom as follows:

1. 92-So.
2. 85-Jr.
3. 83-So./lefty
4. 80-Jr.
5. 78-Fr./lefty

We had another 87-88 guy, junior last year, but he transferred. Next spring we'll have to face him. At other schools, we regularly see one guy who hits 91, another who hits 89, another who hits 88. But once you get past each team's top guy, it drops off quite a bit. You'll see lots of guys who top out around 82, and others who throw junk junk and more junk and couldn't care less about the RADAR guns! So overall, I think Busta's numbers are about right for what we see.

Its great to see an occasional "blazer" out on the mound in high school. But they are usually few and far between.

I tend to watch how fast the ball comes back the other way when evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher.

It is impressive when you see a high school kid hit 90 mph - unless of course - the ball leaves the park at 110 mph.

Guys gotta remember its not what league your in..it's the average. Our league is also way above average. We have guys hitting 90 and plenty in the 80's.

I think where you are plays a HUGE role in pitching velocity. My school's not in a great league, but it's not a bad one either. All 3 starting pitchers were around 80, give or take a couple mph. There were a couple kids I saw play that threw a little harder, but not much. There were also kids that didn't throw as hard.

quote:

Not to sound rude, but in my opinion, Bustamove is way off. I would think it would be more like..

15 yrs-70
16 yrs-74
17 yrs-77
18 yrs-80

That IS about right... maybe even high This topic comes up all the time. Everyone forgets the huge numbers of awful baseball programs and small rural or private schools. I've seen high 50s in freshmen games and upper 60s in varsity, even at large succesful programs. The upper 60s guy was VERY effective, btw.

Many pitchers are slow, but they tend to pitch less often than the 80+ mph guys. So are you talking about the average top out speed a batter will face, or the top out speed of all the pitchers including those rotting on the bench?

Mid-80s. No way. Most teams we see have NO ONE who can hit 85. And it seems that just about every team has one fairly worthless fastballer who can't throw strikes.

I should add that I've seen some pretty speedy pitchers who show their max speed only a few times in a game, relying instead on movement and deception.

I just scoped some 14YOs on a travel team and they maxed at 64mph.

For the last few years we have been the second best small school (1A) in Maryland. Last year we had a senior throwing upper 80's a Junior throwing mid 80's a two Seniors throwing mid 80's and two Juniors throwing upper 70's maybe 80.

I am going to be a Junior this year and I top out around 75 and I am one of the slower ones.

quote:

15 yrs-70
16 yrs-74
17 yrs-77
18 yrs-80

I'll throw in my estimates:
15 yrs-68
16 yrs-73
17 yrs-77
18 yrs-79

Perfect Game insists that most kids nearly top out around age 17 with very little speed increase afterward.

Some of the increase is due to slower kids dropping out of the sport,

And some of the best pitchers may lose speed their senior year due to wear and tear of pitching 50+ innings.

here is my sons velocity from age 10 (he was above avg)


10-56mph
11-63mph
12-68mph
13-74mph
14-80mph
15-84mph frosh
16-87mph soph
his goal is to hit 90 as a jr.
we are a 3a school no one else on the team can break 80 most schools around here the top pitchers throw mid to low 80s at best everone else upper 70s.

ghoti, ur son is right around what i throw, I am 16 (rising JR) and I throw 86, I went to a local showcase for some of the small schools in the area and most kids were around 79-80 and they were rising seniors (17 yrs old) and the coach said there were 2 or 3 kids throwing 85+ and it was only JRs and SRs at the showcase.

ghoti, thats some very interesting numbers you post there. I say that because I just turned 15 a month ago, and while I haven't been able to get clocked since I turned 15 (also a football player and I've been preparing for season), my numbers from 10-14 pretty much match your son's. While on occasion I hit a little higher (83-84 a few times), for example 80-81 is where I usually topped out (although I would obviously break 80 a few times) in most workouts when I was 14. When I was 13, while I dont remember the exact number, I was throwing in the low-mid 70s. And when I was 12 I was throwing just slightely slower than your son (I seem to remember 65). So I wonder if that means that your son and I will end up throwing with simular velocities?

maybe, oh my sons name is andrew too. the 68 at 12 was in fallball actually most of these velos were late as in close to his next birthday. but thats still his age at the time

This is not a crack just a different point of view. You should be glad you don't live in Texas. Mainly Houston. Those averages would be very low for this area. There a numerous kids from 15 and up throwing 90 plus mph and have been a number of seniors over the last 5 years that have been close to or at 100mph. I used to live in Illinois and the averages there were much more like what you have listed.

Just don't quit working on it.

quote:

Originally posted by mymomtaughtme:
There a numerous kids from 15 and up throwing 90 plus mph and have been a number of seniors over the last 5 years that have been close to or at 100mph.

I do live in Texas. Reasonably familiar with Houston select clubs. Especially the big three. And there aren't any 15U's throwing 90 that I've heard of - unless you believer their dad's estimate instead of the gun. Precious few seniors in the high 90's.

Don't get hung up on the 15. I have known of a couple first hand. And they didn't stay there consistently but they did touch it now and then. They were more like mid to upper 80's. But there have been more at 16 and 17 who throw that hard from around the metro area. And I am not referring to just one calendar year or recruiting class. I use my own gun. I don't rely on others opnions of velocity. I would say that mid 80's is more average for the hard throwers in the 16 year old group around here but once you get to 17 and 18 your in a whole different class of ability.

Select, maybe. However at the last Heat tryout I attended, there were not many 17U's (trying out for this fall, the rising juniors) in the mid-80's, much less upper 80's.

The original question was:
"I need some feedback here. What would be considered a good average fastball for a 15 year old to throw? I am not talking the phenom studs, I am talking about the good serviceable pitchers. The 2nd and 3rd guys in the rotation. Not only the 15s but also the 16s 17s and 18s."

The answers that have been provided to that specific question have been pretty good. Your numbers are not for an average 15YO.

I know several players from the Heat and Kyle Chapman that are 16 or 17 throwing from the upper 80's to low 90's.

Having played a little bit on the Columbia Angels, I know they have some good pitching.

bump

Hunter Cervenka was a 15 y.o. kid from Texas.. threw 91 on the Stalker. And he went to the PG National Showcase.

There are so many fish stories about velocity. The fact is, if you're 85+ before your 17th birthday you are one rare bird.

I just got back from a college camp.. my own 16 y.o. clocked in at 84. One of the dads I talked to claimed his kid threw 89. I heard the coach murmur "78". I'm not saying these hard throwers don't exist, but most dads and players don't know what a 90 MPH fastball even looks like.

We are very lucky to be able to see so many hard throwers and outstanding pitchers. When ever these average velocity for different age groups come up I can't help but wonder... How would anyone know?

You get major league average by averaging out major leaguers. How do you average out 15 to 18 years old when a gun is usually never present and there are more than 50,000 pitchers at those ages?

Sorry, but when I keep hearing the stories about kids throwing 50-60 mph, why do they have a radar gun on them?

I do understand that some areas will be much different than others, but I fail to understand the importance of knowing the average. Why do we want to know what the slowest velocity at any age is?

We see a couple hundred high school age kids touch 90 or better every year. It's still a treat every time I see it, because it is rare!. We see several thousands each year who don't!

PG, I got a good tongue-lashing the last time I did a post about average velocities. I agree.. I don't want my kid to be "average". I tell my two boys: "In baseball, you're either a rising star or you're out." That's not intended to be harsh. But the reality is only the very best make it to the top, and if my boy wants to make it there he needs to emulate the very best, not the "average".

By the way, my prayers go out to Brent Warren and his family. Brent is a fine pitcher from Cedar Rapids, Iowa who recently had surgery for a heart defect. With God's grace someday he may pitch again.

Here is a great post by Fungo that was posted a while back. I believe this is under the "Editorials" tab on this site.

So your son has hit 87 on the ole radar gun but he can’t quite hit the magical 90. It’s no BIG DEAL!! Sit down and tell him there is not much difference between 87 and 90.
Boy do you have your work cut out for you. There is no way you can convince him or anyone else there is no difference. Ninety is the only word in the English language that has been etched in stone!

The bureau of standards in Fort Collins, Colorado has "90" emblazoned into the granite floor in the center of the rotunda of the visitor’s center. They consider ninety to be the cornerstone of life. Ninety is part of our heritage. Ninety is the king of standards, The measuring rod of life. History will not allow us to substitute 87 for 90. Never has. Never will.

Who can you blame for this terrible travesty?

Not anyone on the HSBBW or even in baseball. It goes much deeper than that. I can tell you this, once he hits 90+ on the radar gun, your life changes, you become....... it’s hard to explain.

Why is it such a part of our life?


If I live to be ninety years old

My heart was beating ninety miles an hour

It is really hot outside must be ninety degrees

Ninety miles and hour down a one-way street. (Bob Dylan / Down in the Groove album)

He was going ninety to nothing

Are you a 90 pound weakling? (Charles Atlas bodybuilder)

That dude passed me going 90 miles an hour (Bubba explaining to Alabama highway patrol)

A wreck at ninety miles an hour (Lyrics from Stonewall Jackson’s BJ the DJ song)

She is so pert and petite. I would guess no more than 90 pounds!

That pitcher can throw 87 mile per hour. Sorry......almost there

I'd say nd943 and micdsguy are close to what we saw from the bigger schools in our area. That seems like a pretty good average with some slower and some faster.

I have to admit I've gotten swept up in the talk about hard throwers at times. But we forget that there are scores of pitchers who succeed, particularly in high school, without throwing hard, or even because they throw SLOWER than most.

A high school kid who throws mid 80's is probably going to be able to get it by a lot of hitters, but not all of them. Upper 80's, most of them, still not all. 90's, probably all of them.

A kid who throws low/mid 70's can also be successful. This is the guy you never want to face because he messes up your timing so bad, you don't hit for the next three games. You go up there dreaming of hitting it to the moon and you pop out or dribble something that barely reaches an infielder.

If you "average" the heat guy with the finesse guy, you get low 80's. So I guess you could say the "average" high school pitcher throws in the low 80's. But if I had three guys to choose from, "average" is the last guy I'd send out there. These guys tend to look a lot like batting practice, unless they've got something else going for them like a nasty curve, sinker, spot control, etc. The high schooler who relies mostly on 80-82 fastballs gets tatooed.

quote:

I'd say nd943 and micdsguy are close to what we saw from the bigger schools in our area.

Yes, and many schools--small rural schools, intercity schools, tiny private ones--have no one who can approach 80. Notice the post a few days ago from the Brooklyn 17-year old who was in the 56-57 mph range.

Better question is what it takes to be all-conference (era around 1.50 to 3.30] in a pretty strong conference? Many do it with 80 mph. 84 will get you there easily if you some other pitching tools. In fact, some All-Staters are around 80...but they have superb control, from my experience.

I just have to ask the same question I’ve been asking for well over 10 years.
With all these beasts throwing the ball at 90+ as 15-18YOs, why isn’t every single pitcher in professional ball throwing 90+, regardless of which hand they throw with, and why isn’t every pitcher on a ML roster throwing 95+, since they’re the best of the best?

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
Better question is what it takes to be all-conference (era around 1.50 to 3.30) in a pretty strong conference? Many do it with 80 mph. 84 will get you there easily if you some other pitching tools. In fact, some All-Staters are around 80...but they have superb control, from my experience.

The answer to the question is, never use an ERA alone to judge P’s success, especially one in HS. Way too many coaches and SKs trying to “help” players by “adjusting” the book, and way too many poorly kept books. LOL

At any level, the success of a pitcher is dependent on his/her skills, but its much more dependent on the skills of other players, both on their team and on the opponent’s.

Give a P with weak to average abilities the best defense in the league and he’s gonna have a heck of a lot of success in HS or any other level. In lieu of the great defense, playing weaker teams will also give a P a lot of success. Or, how about putting together a lineup that scores 10 earned runs a game? Heck, even a P with an ERA of 8.5 should be able to win a lot of games in that scenario.

But your point that a P’s command, and I would add ability to make the ball move, can and does make many of them very successful, is definitely a valid one!

Midlo Dad,

No, the average HS pitcher is NOT mid-80's. 80 or less. My guess is 78. Mid 80's and you dominate.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
A kid who throws low/mid 70's can also be successful. This is the guy you never want to face because he messes up your timing so bad, you don't hit for the next three games. You go up there dreaming of hitting it to the moon and you pop out or dribble something that barely reaches an infielder.

Ain't that the truth...

Bum, sorry, meant to say "low" 80's. I'm going to edit my post above to fix that mistake, but not before acknowledging you on it.

I agree mid 80's is too high for "average". But I think high 70's is too low.

Though my experience is limited to mostly AAA and decent private schools around here. Maybe in smaller school conferences or in other areas where they play less (cold climes?) you see velocity develop less, or less depth on rosters.

I'll tell you one thing, you go out and face any team in our region with a 78 mph fastball, you'd better have some nasty lefty movement or something else to offer. Otherwise your ERA will get into the 10+ range.

Our high school team has 6 pitchers who all throw north of 80, and 4 other guys who could, but who never get to pitch because they're too far down the depth chart.

I spent the summer with our high school coach's radar gun to some pretty high powered events. One observation is most people give the TOP speed a kid throws when answering the question of "how hard do they throw." It really varies. I've seen many times a kid hits 90 a few times in his first inning of work, and then never hits it again. Or... he goes into the stretch and drops 4 mph - and that is pretty common. What I would look at is what speed does he hit most often. In our neck of the woods, cold damp weather, mid-80's on a consistant basis is pretty dang hard. When it gets warmer, the numbers tend up some. We are at a large high school and lefties who hit 80 consistently are a rare bird. The two on our staff last year, and they did very well threw 74-76. Stud hitters can't hit 59 mph curve balls coming from a lefty either.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
I agree mid 80's is too high for "average". But I think high 70's is too low.

Though my experience is limited to mostly AAA and decent private schools around here. Maybe in smaller school conferences or in other areas where they play less (cold climes?) you see velocity develop less, or less depth on rosters.

I'll tell you one thing, you go out and face any team in our region with a 78 mph fastball, you'd better have some nasty lefty movement or something else to offer. Otherwise your ERA will get into the 10+ range.

Our high school team has 6 pitchers who all throw north of 80, and 4 other guys who could, but who never get to pitch because they're too far down the depth chart.

Midlo,

Unless things have change dramatically in the last 2 years, and judging from what I saw this fall, 80mph for HS pitches is definitely above average.

Don’t take your experience and try to apply it across the board in every school across the country. It won’t work!

I think your estimate of what would happen in your region to someone who only had a 78MPH FB is a bit overblown, and I’m gonna guess that unless a P had something more than an 87MPH FB, he’d be in even more danger of getting whiplash.

What’s the easiest ball there is to hit? I think consensus would agree it was a FB with no movement, thrown over and over. So its not just the guys you consider ****** because they throw slow who need movement or something else to offer. Velocity alone has never been the answer, and never will.

Just for the sake of discussion, what makes you think any pitcher at any level would end up with an ERA over 10, except in a few rare cases where some kind of freaky inning took place, or the total innings were very few, no matter how slow they threw?

Let’s assume you put a normal HS defense on the field, then had the P throw noting but BP FBs as close to right down the middle as possible, and did that for 7 innings. How many runs, let alone earned runs, do you think would score if the defense were really playing like it was an important game, and the offense didn’t get to just sit there and take swing after swing like in a normal BP. IOW, the hitters had to run on balls put in play, and the defense got to make plays, and the entire lineup from top to bottom had to bat.

Do you really believe nearly every ball hit is going to be hit where a glove can’t get it? If you believe that, the next time you watch BP at any level, try to imaging a normal defense out there, making normal plays. And that’s with the hitters getting their 5 or 10 swings with the P doing his best to let them hit the ball!

I’m sure you’re right to some degree, but you’re letting dogma cloud your judgment.

The only comment I can make about your team having 10 kids who can pitch at velocities of 80+ is, it’s the most amazing pitching staff I’ve ever heard about for a HS team. Shoot, at last year’s Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS, there was at least a couple of P’s on every team who didn’t cruise in the 80’s, and quite a few of them got to pitch on TV and did pretty well.

Being able to throw 1 or 2 pitches out of 50 at 80+ is not the same thing as averaging 80+.

Of course I’ve been away from HS ball for a few years now and am just coming back to it, so I may well be wrong. But having had to occasionally gun pitchers for my son’s JUCO team for 2 seasons, I can tell you that I never saw a game go by that at least 1 P on either team didn’t average well below 80 with his FB.

Hey, let's all give Midlo a break. He corrected himself, that's good enough for me.

It really doesn't matter if 78 or 80 or 82 is average, because none of those numbers will get you to Division I, if that's your goal.

I think a more interesting question is this: Name the pitchers in your H.S. league you know who throw 85+. If we start naming names, then we're getting to the nuts and bolts of it.

I'll start.. this is in Spokane.

Andrew Kittredge 88
Paul Smith 88
Mark Purser 87-88
Nic Fowler 86
Alex Banderas 86
Max Manix 85
My Kid 85
Danny Jordan 85
Jacob Partridge 85
Billy Moon 85
Maybe one other I'm forgetting

That's 11 pitchers in a league with about 100 pitchers. Roughly 10%.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
That's 11 pitchers in a league with about 100 pitchers. Roughly 10%.

Wa is a tremendous baseball state, and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see it soon rivaling some of the sun belt states, if it doesn’t already.

10% is probably much closer to what I’m used to than what I’m hearing from a lot of folks, but even that sounds a tad high for guys who can really throw 85+. I’m guessin’ something more like 6-7%.

But one thing’s for sure, even though I have a gun that was given to me by our local police department, I won’t be spendin’ any time gunnin’ HS boys. If the scouts want to do that, its easy enough to find out. And usually there’s some obnoxious dad runnin’ around with one who just can’t wait to let everyone know his little fireballer’s hittin’ those big numbers. ;-)

I’ve already told our coach that when they put up the new scoreboard, I’ll donate the gun to the program, and get someone to mount it up on the backstop. Then all he has to do is get power to it and pick up a display unit that can be mounted on the scoreboard.

That’s the only way I wouldn’t mind seeing gun numbers. That way everyone can oooh and ahhh at the kids who really can put up the numbers, but more importantly, I think it would really be an eye opener to anyone who watched one of the games to see literally every pitch gunned.

And the best part is, after only a few games, it would become old hat to the players and maybe help them ignore the darn thing when those iggerint daddiess pull out those stupid guns!

quote:

The only comment I can make about your team having 10 kids who can pitch at velocities of 80+ is, it’s the most amazing pitching staff I’ve ever heard about for a HS team. Shoot, at last year’s Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS, there was at least a couple of P’s on every team who didn’t cruise in the 80’s, and quite a few of them got to pitch on TV and did pretty well.

Scorekeeper,

Those type of high school pitching staffs are not all that unusual. Not to the point of being the most amazing ever.

There have been many high school teams just in the past few years with 2, even 3 pitchers throwing 90 or better. There are several high school teams that have nearly, if not every pitcher who can throw Low 80s or better. So when you say 10 kids with 80+ velocity would be the most amazing HS pitching staff you’ve ever seen, it makes me wonder if you’ve seen much high level baseball. There have been high school pitching staffs in Iowa without anyone throwing less than low 80s. BTW, Iowa is not a hotbed for baseball talent.

Last year there was a high school team in Alabama with two mid 90 pitchers and another who threw 90 and several others who were 85-89. This year there is a team in New Jersey with one 94-98, one 91-93, another 90, and everyone else easily above 85. This is not all that impossible in areas like Houston, Miami, Atlanta, etc. Long Beach has one of these HS as well. Granted this is rare, but they all can’t be the best pitching staff ever!

Also, who were the couple pitchers on each college world series team who threw in the 70s? That would be pitchers for Oregon State, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Cal State Fullerton, Miami, Rice and Georgia. Are you saying there were at least 16 pitchers or more in last year’s college world series who had average fastballs in the 70s? Sorry, but someone will have to prove that before I would believe it.

Anyway, I still can’t figure out what would be important about the average velocity of a high school pitcher. That is, even if we did have a way of knowing that. The only thing I’m fairly sure of is that average would be much different from one team and one league or one part of the country than others.

We all know there are a lot of high school pitchers who throw in the 70s, but there are thousands of 80+ pitchers and hundreds 90 mph guys in high school also. I just don’t see hardly any in the 60s let alone 50s. 50s (are we kidding) ? That is too slow for good BP. I might go with more below 80 than above 80 even, but 80-83 mph is at least very common (though maybe not really the average) in my estimation. I am talking about the varsity level.

The top college programs, have very few pitchers who throw below mid 80s and most all are above that velocity. If it were any other way they would all be out recruiting some pitchers who don’t throw 80 mph. Oregon State signed several pitchers during the early signing period. The ones we are familiar with all throw easily in the 90+ range.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Those type of high school pitching staffs are not all that unusual. Not to the point of being the most amazing ever.

Perhaps you’re correct, and there are lots of HS teams all over the country with 10 players who can all cruise at 80+. But again, what I said was: it’s the most amazing pitching staff I’ve ever heard about for a HS team.

Admittedly, my experience is limited in that I’ve only seen perhaps 100 HS teams, and they’ve been limited mostly to NorCal, some to SoCal, and a few from Nv.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
There have been many high school teams just in the past few years with 2, even 3 pitchers throwing 90 or better. There are several high school teams that have nearly, if not every pitcher who can throw Low 80s or better. So when you say 10 kids with 80+ velocity would be the most amazing HS pitching staff you’ve ever seen, it makes me wonder if you’ve seen much high level baseball. There have been high school pitching staffs in Iowa without anyone throwing less than low 80s. BTW, Iowa is not a hotbed for baseball talent.

I think I said I’ve been away from HS ball for at least 2 seasons, and more like 3, so what you say may well be true. But its not in my experience.

When we went to the 2003 Jr Oly tournament in 2002, I got to see the logs of the P’s velocities, and there were only 2 90+ cruisers, and I think 14 85+ kids. Those aren’t my numbers, they’re the numbers I saw their workers had gathered. In 2003 the numbers were better, but not by much.

Now maybe they hid the real facts from me, or all the 90+ kids were somewhere else, but that sure seemed like a pretty low number for 70+ teams that were supposed to have some of the best talent in the entire west.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Last year there was a high school team in Alabama with two mid 90 pitchers and another who threw 90 and several others who were 85-89. This year there is a team in New Jersey with one 94-98, one 91-93, another 90, and everyone else easily above 85. This is not all that impossible in areas like Houston, Miami, Atlanta, etc. Long Beach has one of these HS as well. Granted this is rare, but they all can’t be the best pitching staff ever!

Well, you can keep beating up on me if you like, but I still maintain that I haven’t seen ‘em. I’m not saying they aren’t around, only that I haven’t seen them, and you yourself say they’re rare.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Also, who were the couple pitchers on each college world series team who threw in the 70s? That would be pitchers for Oregon State, North Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Cal State Fullerton, Miami, Rice and Georgia. Are you saying there were at least 16 pitchers or more in last year’s college world series who had average fastballs in the 70s? Sorry, but someone will have to prove that before I would believe it.

PGStaffer, you’re overacting just a bit here, and not paying attention to what was written.

at last year’s Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS, there was at least a couple of P’s on every team who didn’t cruise in the 80’s, and quite a few of them got to pitch on TV and did pretty well.

There were a heck of a lot of teams in the Regionals, Super Regionals, and CWS. That’s quite different than the CWS!

But even so, I’m still guessing there is at least 1 P on nearly every college team that doesn’t throw his average FB 80+, and it might me more common than you believe. Unless and until someone guns every pitch from every pitcher at every school, all we can do is continue to state opinions.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:Anyway, I still can’t figure out what would be important about the average velocity of a high school pitcher. That is, even if we did have a way of knowing that. The only thing I’m fairly sure of is that average would be much different from one team and one league or one part of the country than others. [QUOTE]

On that we agree 100%!

[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:We all know there are a lot of high school pitchers who throw in the 70s, but there are thousands of 80+ pitchers and hundreds 90 mph guys in high school also. I just don’t see hardly any in the 60s let alone 50s. 50s (are we kidding) ? That is too slow for good BP. I might go with more below 80 than above 80 even, but 80-83 mph is at least very common (though maybe not really the average) in my estimation. I am talking about the varsity level. [QUOTE]

You made a couple of very good points, the most important to me being that people need to make sure they differentiate between the different levels in HS. I have to admit that when I say HS, I include every kid on a HS team. When I mean varsity, or any of the groups separately, I’ll designate it with a Fr, JV, or V. So, probably much of our disagreement is that we aren’t both talking about the same thing. ;-)

[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:The top college programs, have very few pitchers who throw below mid 80s and most all are above that velocity. If it were any other way they would all be out recruiting some pitchers who don’t throw 80 mph. Oregon State signed several pitchers during the early signing period. The ones we are familiar with all throw easily in the 90+ range. [QUOTE]

Here again, you’re allowing yourself to slip away from colleges, and are talking about only the best. That’s ok as long as you make sure everyone knows what you’re talking about, but I guarantee you that not every college team has an 85 cruiser on it, let alone 3 or 4 90+ cruisers.

That’s the funny thing about averages. When one talks about the average HS pitcher’s FB, he’s talking about every HS P in the world, then the average of every FB they throw, not just the max for each. And average is a far different thing than median, and mode is different than either of them.

Perhaps you can answer one of my personal age old questions. Assuming there are hundreds of HS Ps who throw 90+, that would mean at least hundreds more are in the pros somewhere. Since there are only 30 ML teams and at most they carry 14 P’s, that means at most it would only take 420 P’s to fill every ML pitching roster.

If velocity is truly such a valuable commodity, why is there even 1 P who doesn’t consistently throw at 90+, and with the tremendous numbers available, why isn’t every ML P cruising at 95+?

You don’t have to ask. I really do understand that the main reason its so valuable is because it’s the only truly objective measurement of a P we have. ;-)

quote:

Well, you can keep beating up on me if you like

Definitely not my intent. Sorry you feel that way. I will stop doing that!

quote:

PGStaffer, you’re overacting just a bit here, and not paying attention to what was written.

I try very hard to pay attention to what people write. Sorry if I didn't comprehend, it wouldn't be the first time. As far as over reacting, that would be your opinion. I don't really care enough to over react! I'm just a stickler for accuracy!

Scorekeeper, I really do apologize, if I somehow offended you. Everyone's opinions are welcome, including mine, even if they are incorrect.

By the way, please call me by my correct name! It's PGStaff not PGStaffer. Just attempting a little humor! Not very good at it! Call me anything you want!

I think the thread was started by somebody with a son about to start high school who was trying to get an idea of where they stood. For some folks average high school velocity may not be important, but for someone aproaching that level it may seem important to get an idea of where they stand and what their chances are.
I have to admit that I found it interesting as I have a son who just turned 13 and loves to pitch. I've seen quite a bit of HS baseball since I've been through it with one son and hopefully will get to experience it again.
My experience has been more like what Scorekeeper described but I understand that PGStaff has had the opportunity to see the very best. I've heard of quite a few HS kids in the 90's, and I believe they exist, the ones I've seen just weren't pitching that fast when I was watching. I appreciate PG's input because he's seen some of the very best and it gives me an idea of what's out there and how much work we've got to do to compete.

quote:

Call me anything you want!

Jerry:

Does this mean I can call you the "Godfather" like as in the Connie Mack personna of modern day baseball?

Peace Shep

Most of the kids that reportly hit "90" do so. ...in their car driving down Interstate 55 when they are late for a ball game. I've heard MORE TIMES THAN I CARE TO RELATE, "well, today he's having an off day." Very good high school pitchers in our area can hit mid 80s. Yes, we have a couple that can hit "90" once in a while. However, when someone tells me a kid is throwing such and such, I instantly take 5 mph off of that statement. I'm right more times than I'm wrong. BTW, I consider our area to be a baseball hotbed and typically one area team will make it to state from our very close area in a 2 class system. JMHO!

I am glad to see these estimates on age and speed. My son, a HS Senior, will be 18 in a couple of months. He tops out at 81. He lives in a County with a population of about 25,000...not 3.4 million like the City of Houston, TX has. Heck, Houston has about 800,000 more people than the entire STATE of Mississippi. So when someone (no offense) says that there are a some kids throwing 90 in a "city", it doesn't mean much to me, comparitively.

But my son's 81 MPH also includes very good control with all 4 of his pitches, and good movement on them all. He's a good pitcher. (Too bad he's not lefthanded.)

Would he be better if he was throwing 85?...or 90? Probably get more strikeouts.

OR, would he be better if his infielders could catch a ground ball more often than they do?...or throw it straight? DEFINITELY.

jaxnbullgod, I am very much like your son. All I've got to say is if he's got the command of all pitches, and you're realistic. I'm sure there's a place for him.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Definitely not my intent. Sorry you feel that way. I will stop doing that!

No need to apologize, I wasn’t offended, at all. I just got the feeling that you felt I was attacking something or someone, and I assure you, all I do in these venues is try to keep thing on a casual, discussion basis, not adversarial.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
I try very hard to pay attention to what people write. Sorry if I didn't comprehend, it wouldn't be the first time. As far as over reacting, that would be your opinion. I don't really care enough to over react! I'm just a stickler for accuracy!

Absolutely no problem here! I realize my position is farther left than most, and that does often cause confusion.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Scorekeeper, I really do apologize, if I somehow offended you. Everyone's opinions are welcome, including mine, even if they are incorrect.

Like I said, no need to apologize at all because the chances of offending me are pretty slim. ;-)

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
By the way, please call me by my correct name! It's PGStaff not PGStaffer. Just attempting a little humor! Not very good at it! Call me anything you want!

My bad. I usually look back to make sure I at least get names and quotes correct.

I truly wish there were a way to preview these posts before the go in. It wouldn’t be so bad, but I don’t see an edit capability either.

S’all OK. We can certainly agree to be friendly enemies on this subject, because you’re right, it really isn’t all that important.

quote:

Originally posted by Innocent Bystander:
I think the thread was started by somebody with a son about to start high school who was trying to get an idea of where they stood. For some folks average high school velocity may not be important, but for someone aproaching that level it may seem important to get an idea of where they stand and what their chances are.

I have to admit that I found it interesting as I have a son who just turned 13 and loves to pitch. I've seen quite a bit of HS baseball since I've been through it with one son and hopefully will get to experience it again.

My experience has been more like what Scorekeeper described but I understand that PGStaff has had the opportunity to see the very best. I've heard of quite a few HS kids in the 90's, and I believe they exist, the ones I've seen just weren't pitching that fast when I was watching. I appreciate PG's input because he's seen some of the very best and it gives me an idea of what's out there and how much work we've got to do to compete.

I can sure understand how people want to be able to have a measuring tool, and like I’ve said, the gun is really the only objective tool available. In that sense, I can understand it, but IMHO its really meaningless.

I gues some of my sensitivity to this subject comes from the incessant beat being pounded out by parents of players less than, say 16. I read about or hear this same velocity/radar gun/ I’m only curious thing at least 50 times a year for the pre shaving crowd, and it drives me crazy! Sometimes I let it spill over into my dealings with the more mature groups.

But I honestly don’t get why people feel this deep need to measure their children, There’s really not much that can be done, other than to spend more money on competent instruction, and if that’s already happening, all that can come of it is angst.

Good luck to your son. I envy you and him! If you were anything at all like my son and I were, we made so many mistakes and bashed our heads into so many brick walls, it would be a blessing to have another go at the whole thing.

I was discussing this whole thing with my cousin this afternoon. We’re the same age, but he lives in northern Ohio, while I now reside in northern Ca. He can’t even imagine people getting so excited about knowing what their kid’s velocity is. He has a HS school about a long par 4 from his back door, and he’s often taken advantage of that by watching free games for the last 30 years.

In doing that, he says its very seldom he’s ever seen a radar gun, so it just o happens he’s in one of those areas where its not important. Just west of us here, about 50 miles, is De La Salle HS. Now that place is really the complete opposite. A private school with a history of being nationally ranked in at least one sport every year, is a different nut.

We knew a boy that went there who used to play with my son on a national tournament team. He was a true 90+ cruiser at 15, but didn’t make the V roster until he was a Jr. Different place, different things going on.

But to me the most important thing to take away from this whole mess is, its extremely important to keep these kids playing as long as possible, to try to get them as close to maturity as can be done.

For some that means taking alternate routes after HS, such as JUCO, NAIA, DII, III, or IV schools. but there are so many “baseball snobs out there its unbelievable! Of course everyone wants their kid to get a full ship to a high profile BB school like Az St, Rice, or whatever, and then be a starter as a Fr, but the chances of that happening are next to zero!

Sometimes its just better from a maturity standpoint for kids to maybe stay at home and go the JUCO route. Sometimes its much better to go to an NAIA school to get to play and get the core requirements out of the way so the transition to a big school is easier.

It just makes me mad when people poo poo those other options, and what they don’t realize is, the kids hear that and often feel like failures if they don’t get drafted or get that’ship.

quote:

Originally posted by CoachB25:
Most of the kids that reportly hit "90" do so. ...in their car driving down Interstate 55 when they are late for a ball game. I've heard MORE TIMES THAN I CARE TO RELATE, "well, today he's having an off day." Very good high school pitchers in our area can hit mid 80s. Yes, we have a couple that can hit "90" once in a while. However, when someone tells me a kid is throwing such and such, I instantly take 5 mph off of that statement. I'm right more times than I'm wrong. BTW, I consider our area to be a baseball hotbed and typically one area team will make it to state from our very close area in a 2 class system. JMHO!

Now that’s much more like what I hear when I sit down and talk to scouts. Not birddogs, scouts.

Scorekeeper, It is angels, not angles.

I just assumed, from what I've seen, that we had a "no correcting the spelling" rule here! If you start down that road, you're going to have to make 250 posts/day just to do that!

Shep, please NO to "Godfather"

I would be very far down the list of those deserving that title! In fact, I wouldn't even be on the list!

I think all this discussion is interesting. Its just that the average velocity of high school pitchers is an unknown! And even if it were common knowledge, I fail to understand the value of knowing.

There are very good "pitchers" who can be successful throwing in the 70s in high school. I have even seen small college pitchers throwing in the 70s. Now I don't see as many DI games as I'd like, but I follow the recruiting classes very closely. I just don't see hardly any pitchers who throw in the 70s being recruited by DI schools, let alone the top DI schools. I don't see any pitchers in the 70s getting drafted, no matter how good a "pitcher" they might be. If anyone has more than one or two examples of exceptions to that rule, please post them.

So, to any individual pitcher out there... What will knowing the nationwide average high school pitching velocity tell you that might be helpful?

Concentrate on learning how to pitch and how to get better, including velocity. Afterall, the average high school pitcher is done pitching when he graduates from high school! Even many above average are done after high school!

quote:

Originally posted by bbscout:
Scorekeeper, It is angels, not angles.

Have to remember, SK is from California. Where Los Angles is...

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Concentrate on learning how to pitch and how to get better, including velocity. Afterall, the average high school pitcher is done pitching when he graduates from high school! Even many above average are done after high school!

Just to re-emphasize:
Keep the good grades up. Get stronger, grow bigger, improve mechanics. Solidify the mental toughness, work on pitching smarts. And what will happen will happen.


I will admit to having much more interest recently in Texan Son's speed than ever before. [When he was young, neither his pitching coach nor I ever emphasized velocity.] Why the new interest? Because - right or wrong - almost all college coaches use the mph's as an initial screening criteria. If a pitcher is over the velocity cutoff point, then they start looking at the other characteristics (e.g., mental toughness, command, movement, etc.).

So as Texan Son begins to investigate college programs, knowing his velocity will help him focus on the programs that are the most likely to have an interest in him.

What is Texan Son doing in the meantime, though? Working hard to make good grades, get stronger, improve mechanics, solidify mental toughness, increase pitching smarts. And what will happen will happen. This summer the gun will read what it reads. But no matter what digits that appear on that LCD display, he will have worked his hardest and done his absolute best. And that is why I am proud of him, regardless of what the gun may say.

I agree that far too much attention is paid to pitching velocity in young pitchers but I can understand why, because when you go to a showcase the first thing out of the bag is the radar gun.

The day that a sheet of plywood with holes just big enough for a baseball cut in it for targets is propped up 60 feet 6 inches away from the pitching rubber and the player who moves on to the next level is the kid who hits the most targets in sequence regardless of velocity, is the day we stop talking about how fast a 17 year old can throw a baseball.

JMO. I hope everyone is having a good one.

Mark

quote:

Originally posted by bbscout:
Scorekeeper, It is angels, not angles.

Thank you!

I think (for the most part) you guys are all correct when saying too much importance is placed on the gun reading. However, it really is important to some degree. I don’t think the best scouts and recruiters place too much importance on velocity. I think they place about the right importance on it. Personally, I think parents place more importance on it than scouts. Scouts will often like the guy who throws 89 better than the guy throwing 92. The parents of the boy throwing 92 might not understand why. The parents of the boy throwing 75 will argue the gun is over rated. We all have a natural tendency to adjust our thinking to our own situation. I know, because I’ve also been guilty of that.

The only point I’m trying to make is… Regarding the topic at hand…. Why would anyone care what the average high school velocity is, even if there was a way to accurately determine that? It’s absolutely meaningless to any young pitcher IMO. Furthermore, if the average velocity was, lets say, 73 mph… What does that tell you? If you are a junior or senior throwing 73 mph, I do not think you should be spending any money going to showcases as a pitcher. Not if your purpose for going is to get an offer from a major college. It just isn’t going to happen in nearly every case. I did see a knuckle baller get an offer once, but his fastball was 77-81.

If someone wants to try an experiment… Call any DI college in the country… Tell them your son is a great pitcher with command and good movement on all his pitches and he has great HS stats, but he throws his fastball in the 70s.

Then after talking to that recruiter, set by the phone and wait for him to call back. Let us all know how long it takes!

I think it’s important that parents and young players get good information. I think it’s important that a high school kid throwing in the 70s understands how the system works. Then they can strive to do whatever they can to have a realistic chance.

Velocity is far from the only thing that counts, but it is one thing that does count! And you don't need a radar gun to tell the huge difference between 90 and 80 and 70. The radar gun only stamps a number on it! If someone is a good pitcher who doesn't throw hard, who cares about the radar gun? Just enjoy what you have.

Lastly... Someone mentioned the average speed as being the easiest to hit. I do believe that it can be more effective throwing far below average than average. Far above average is a lot better though.

Don't know how that happened, but I posted it twice.

PGStaff,

Excellent advice, but I still believe it would be much better directed at the parents, rather than the players.

I’ve found that players seldom worry about the actual velocity number as much as people think they do. Like hitters evaluating themselves against their competition and having a very good idea how they compare, pitchers pretty much have that ability too. But those not on the field actually playing the game have a much more difficult time doing that, and generally, parents haven’t got any clue at all.

But a good as that advice is, its difficult to get people to believe it when there’s such a whoopdeedoo about velocity. We’re beat on by the message from the time the kids throw that 1st pitch in kid pitch ball. Even on these bulletin boards where supposedly the brightest of fans/coaches/parent/players supposedly exchange ideas, the velocity message beats on us every day.

Here’s part of a post made on another board.

Help on making cuts please
I am the asst. coach of my MS baseball team and I need help on the 10 or so pitchers. Only two are already in, a short skinny pitcher that threw 68 MPH sidearm, and a fat (think Engleberg in bad news bears) outfielder/pitcher who threw 82 MPH.

After some discussion, here’s a subsequent post the same guy made.

One of those man children

He is really huge, like 5' 9'' and 225 pounds. I doubt he'll grow anymore... but who doesn't want an eighth grader who can throw 82???

This guy’s typical! He sees a fat kid he doubts will grow any more as someone not only he wants as a P, but believes every other coach in the world would want also, just because he throws hard.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
…
If you are a junior or senior throwing 73 mph, I do not think you should be spending any money going to showcases as a pitcher. Not if your purpose for going is to get an offer from a major college. It just isn’t going to happen in nearly every case. I did see a knuckle baller get an offer once, but his fastball was 77-81.

If someone wants to try an experiment… Call any DI college in the country… Tell them your son is a great pitcher with command and good movement on all his pitches and he has great HS stats, but he throws his fastball in the 70s.

Then after talking to that recruiter, set by the phone and wait for him to call back. Let us all know how long it takes!

I think it’s important that parents and young players get good information. I think it’s important that a high school kid throwing in the 70s understands how the system works. Then they can strive to do whatever they can to have a realistic chance.

Velocity is far from the only thing that counts, but it is one thing that does count!

Let me start with saying I’m not disagreeing with you at all.

Having said that, IMHO the strongest messages you send with statements like those are, D1 is the only truly worthwhile college ball, and if you don’t pay someone to go to showcases you’ll never have a chance to play in one of those programs.

I think it’s a shame that things have gotten to the point where there’s so much baseball snobbery, and I find it tragic that having the money to be able to afford going all over the place to the showcases makes such a huge difference in whether or not players get to compete on an equal basis.

Yes, a lot depends on one’s perspective, but I don’t think anyone can deny that $$$$$$$$$ play far too important a role in the whole thing.

Maybe the fat kid will lose 40 lbs and end up throwing 90!

Why would a coach go on a message board to ask who he should choose to cut? Not much of a coach in my book, what do you think?

Velocity not the radar reading has always been thought of as a good attribute, even before the gun was invented. I'm not very familiar with the very youngest of age groups, but are there people using radar guns at those games?

If so, I can see a bit clearer what people are talking about here.

I disagree with your statement about "parents haven't got any clue at all." I've seen many parents who have much better than a clue. I'm sure you didn't mean "all" parents. The comment I made earlier about parents should also be corrected to not include all parents, all the time. But I've actually seen very good baseball people, even scouts and college coaches, who can not see their son in the same unbias way they see others.

Anyway, it's been fun talking about this stuff, even if we did get a bit off the subject at times.

quote:

Let me start with saying I’m not disagreeing with you at all.

Having said that, IMHO the strongest messages you send with statements like those are, D1 is the only truly worthwhile college ball, and if you don’t pay someone to go to showcases you’ll never have a chance to play in one of those programs.

I think it’s a shame that things have gotten to the point where there’s so much baseball snobbery, and I find it tragic that having the money to be able to afford going all over the place to the showcases makes such a huge difference in whether or not players get to compete on an equal basis.

Yes, a lot depends on one’s perspective, but I don’t think anyone can deny that $$$$$$$$$ play far too important a role in the whole thing.

Scorekeeper,

I'm sure you haven't been around here long enough to determine the messages I send.

You are assuming some things that couldn't be further from the truth. Now I'm starting to think one of two things.

1 - You do not know much about me or what my beliefs are. (Which I hope is the case)

2 - You have some other reason for these assumptions.

If you check back far enough, you will find just the exact opposite message coming from me. Many many times! I spent many years as a small college coach.

And It's hard to understand how telling someone NOT to waste money on showcases is making $$$$$$$$$$$ far too important of a role.
Here is exactly what I said

quote:

If you are a junior or senior throwing 73 mph, I do not think you should be spending any money going to showcases as a pitcher. Not if your purpose for going is to get an offer from a major college. It just isn’t going to happen in nearly every case.

How you got what you did out of that, I don't know!

Was just kidding with you Jerry, but you don't give yourself enough credit, somebody has to do it for you.

You have made huge contributions to the ressurrection of baseball. More than you know.

peace shep

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Maybe the fat kid will lose 40 lbs and end up throwing 90!

Why would a coach go on a message board to ask who he should choose to cut? Not much of a coach in my book, what do you think?

I agree, but you’ve gotta be careful when you tell that to some people, and you’ve gotta understand that when people are talking about different levels pf play, its inevitable there’ll be different levels of coaching too.

I can assure you that fellow took more shots than he had people agreeing with him.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Velocity not the radar reading has always been thought of as a good attribute, even before the gun was invented. I'm not very familiar with the very youngest of age groups, but are there people using radar guns at those games?

If so, I can see a bit clearer what people are talking about here.

I assure you that there are guns being used at games starting with the very lowest of kid pitch leagues! Just this week I’ve been in “discussions” where people(dads) insist that using radar on kids is the greatest thing since sliced bread!

Here’s part of a post that should give you just a teeny bit of an idea what’s going on way below where we’re talking about.

I think radar has been a great tool for measuring my 12 yo son's progress from his early 9 yo seat-of-the-pants pitching mechanics up through his current and more highly refined mechanics.

Granted that’s only a very small part of the thread, but I think you can easily see that using radar on kids is not only common, many people encourage it!

One of the reasons I’m finding this particular board so stimulating is, it very seldom deals with the ignorance found so often in the lower levels. Don’t get me wrong, those boards are great because they really do help disseminate a lot of much needed information, but its really difficult for me, having a son who’s been away from that level for at least 8 years to still have to deal with people arguing about some of the things they get their undies in a bunch about.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:I disagree with your statement about "parents haven't got any clue at all." I've seen many parents who have much better than a clue. I'm sure you didn't mean "all" parents. The comment I made earlier about parents should also be corrected to not include all parents, all the time. But I've actually seen very good baseball people, even scouts and college coaches, who can not see their son in the same unbias way they see others.

You are correct. I definitely didn’t mean “ALL” parents. But, as you can probably guess, I was considering the parents of much more than HS level players.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Anyway, it's been fun talking about this stuff, even if we did get a bit off the subject at times.

Another difference between the different levels is, its easy to see there’s a much higher level of maturity here than on boards that deal with lower levels. Evidently you haven’t been insulted by anything I’ve said, and I know I haven’t been bothered by what you have said to me. Its just a discussion board.

But try to have these same kinds of discussions with someone just beginning the journey and you’ll see very quickly that people get upset and personally offended much more easily.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by PGStaff:

Scorekeeper,

I'm sure you haven't been around here long enough to determine the messages I send.

You are assuming some things that couldn't be further from the truth. Now I'm starting to think one of two things.

1 - You do not know much about me or what my beliefs are. (Which I hope is the case)

2 - You have some other reason for these assumptions.

If you check back far enough, you will find just the exact opposite message coming from me. Many many times! I spent many years as a small college coach.

And It's hard to understand how telling someone NOT to waste money on showcases is making $$$$$$$$$$$ far too important of a role.
Here is exactly what I said

If you are a junior or senior throwing 73 mph, I do not think you should be spending any money going to showcases as a pitcher. Not if your purpose for going is to get an offer from a major college. It just isn’t going to happen in nearly every case.

How you got what you did out of that, I don't know! [QUOTE]

Well, your 2 assumptions are both correct to at least some degree.

I’m sure I will learn more about you and your beliefs over time, and I hope I won’t alienate you too much before that happens. ;-)

I do have other reasons for my assumptions, but that’s only to be expected. I’m very much more of a “NURTURE” than a “NATURE” guy, and that means I believe we all are the sum of all of our unique experiences. IOW, I understand that I am the way I am because of the things that have happened to me in this life, and that means I have to deal with my own biases and prejudices as well as yours, and everyone else’s.

Without going into an even longer and more drawn out explanation, basically I have a built in aversion to anything that tends to leave players out of the loop. Unfortunately, money and connections come under that aversion. I guess my leftist approach to life is beginning to show. ;-)

Let’s look at your quote for a second, and maybe I can at least give you some understanding of how I got what I did out of it.

It isn’t your 1st sentence that bothered me at all! That’s why I said I wasn’t disagreeing. But that 2nd sentence pushed a button.

Maybe I don’t think like everyone else does, but I interpreted that as saying there are only 2 reasons to go to a showcase. 1) get exposure to major colleges, and 2) put money in the pocket of the promoters of the showcase. So what I read was, the promoters will gladly take your money knowing they aren’t offering any value for it at all.

Sorry, but that grinds my gears.

Since I don’t have any way at all to know what really goes on in the board rooms of the companies who promote showcases, I surely can’t say they’re really these slimy guys who’d take the food money from some poor guy knowing full well his kid had zero chance of getting any value at all. Hey, its America and those folks are only selling a service. Caveat emptor!

But it would surely make me more comfortable seeing a bit more openness from the promoters, to the point where they explain the criteria they know the colleges will be looking for, before the guy writes the check.

I guess I’m just not at all comfortable with the process, and have my doubts as to its real worth. I hope that at least explains a little bit. I’m reluctant to go into more detail, simply because I don’t know who looks at this board, or for that matter who you are.

Suffice it to say I’ll be one of those whackos who’ll come off the wall with something you won’t understand once in a while. It isn’t personal, its just the way I feel based on my past experiences.

Surprising as it might seem, I think I actually understood all that.

Now I have to ask another question. You are not the guy who used to post here by the name of something "eye" are you? He was from California as well and your post kind of reminded me a little bit of him. I might have been the only one who actually grew to like him. Hope that's not the way it works out this time.

Guess I still don't understand how you interpreted this comment the way you did...
If you are a junior or senior throwing 73 mph, I do not think you should be spending any money going to showcases as a pitcher. Not if your purpose for going is to get an offer from a major college. It just isn’t going to happen in nearly every case.

I would think that, that is advice to "NOT" spend any money!

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Surprising as it might seem, I think I actually understood all that.

YAHOO!

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Now I have to ask another question. You are not the guy who used to post here by the name of something "eye" are you? He was from California as well and your post kind of reminded me a little bit of him. I might have been the only one who actually grew to like him. Hope that's not the way it works out this time.

No! I can honestly say that until the 1st week in January, I’d never seen nor heard of this BB. However, I truly wish I’d have known it was her in 1999! It would have very likely made my and my son’s HS baseball career more enjoyable.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Guess I still don't understand how you interpreted this comment the way you did...

I guess you’ll have to take it on faith that I don’t interpret things quite the way everyone else does, and live with that quirk. Its not that I’m trying to be an a** or just argue, its that I really try to be honest about how I see and feel about things.

If I knew you better and we were conversing privately, or we were sitting in the shade in the backyard having some kind of cool adult beverage on a 105 degree day, I feel confident I could explain myself in a way you would more easily understand.

But its no big thing! I really like being challenged. I’m old and don’t have that many challenges left, other than just staying alive! ;-)

4 more days and I’ll be able to transfer a lot of this energy into goin’ down and watchin’ tryouts and the early practices of the season.

Ouch! I guess I'm one of those ignorant dads who gets curious and wonders how fast his kid is throwing about twice a year. (I don't own a gun but I've had some coaches tell me) I also check his ht and wt about 3 times a year! Some how I can't see how it's so wrong to check on your own kids progress now and then. If he see's somebody checking with a gun HE wants to know his progress. He likes to see how high he can jump, how much he can lift, he even likes to hit at fields with fences so he knows how far he's hitting! I'm actually thinking of timing him in the 60 this yr so he can chart his progress.(didn't do that with 23 yr old)
I'm not quite getting why it might be wrong to check ht,wt,vertical, velocity, and 60 time, or are some ok and others not?

Innocent, Do not feel guilty!

IMO, there's nothing wrong with what you're doing. It's all OK if that's what you want to do.

Thanks PGStaff, (big sigh) I'll fix my shorts and get some sleep!

Scorekeep..

I think what PG is trying to tell you: Sometimes a synopsis will do. Topical sentences are good, too.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
I think (for the most part) you guys are all correct when saying too much importance is placed on the gun reading. However, it really is important to some degree. I don’t think the best scouts and recruiters place too much importance on velocity. I think they place about the right importance on it. Personally, I think parents place more importance on it than scouts. Scouts will often like the guy who throws 89 better than the guy throwing 92. The parents of the boy throwing 92 might not understand why. The parents of the boy throwing 75 will argue the gun is over rated. We all have a natural tendency to adjust our thinking to our own situation. I know, because I’ve also been guilty of that.

The only point I’m trying to make is… Regarding the topic at hand…. Why would anyone care what the average high school velocity is, even if there was a way to accurately determine that? It’s absolutely meaningless to any young pitcher IMO. Furthermore, if the average velocity was, lets say, 73 mph… What does that tell you? If you are a junior or senior throwing 73 mph, I do not think you should be spending any money going to showcases as a pitcher. Not if your purpose for going is to get an offer from a major college. It just isn’t going to happen in nearly every case. I did see a knuckle baller get an offer once, but his fastball was 77-81.

If someone wants to try an experiment… Call any DI college in the country… Tell them your son is a great pitcher with command and good movement on all his pitches and he has great HS stats, but he throws his fastball in the 70s.

Then after talking to that recruiter, set by the phone and wait for him to call back. Let us all know how long it takes!

I think it’s important that parents and young players get good information. I think it’s important that a high school kid throwing in the 70s understands how the system works. Then they can strive to do whatever they can to have a realistic chance.

Velocity is far from the only thing that counts, but it is one thing that does count! And you don't need a radar gun to tell the huge difference between 90 and 80 and 70. The radar gun only stamps a number on it! If someone is a good pitcher who doesn't throw hard, who cares about the radar gun? Just enjoy what you have.

Lastly... Someone mentioned the average speed as being the easiest to hit. I do believe that it can be more effective throwing far below average than average. Far above average is a lot better though.

That was a great post Jerry. I hope that many people here read it, because it was well thought out and very true.

quote:

Originally posted by Bum:
Scorekeep..

I think what PG is trying to tell you: Sometimes a synopsis will do. Topical sentences are good, too.

Well, the world today seems to want all communications bundled up into nice short sound bites or sentences, and that’s all good. But the trouble with that is, more often than not, there’s misunderstanding to the point where either the wrong message is sent, or the message is misunderstood and causes many subsequent messages to be sent in order to clear everything up.

Sorry, I ain’t built that way. I’d much rather take the time to try to explain something as well as I’m able the 1st time, rather than spend the next week trying to get things straight.

IB, what SK is alluding to is the dad who guns every single pitch his 9 or 10YO throws in every game. And very often those same dads who gun every pitch are those whose primary emphasis when working with their son is velocity. And in this part of the world anyhow, that is getting more common.

IMHO, that is not healthy. Please note, I am not saying that you are one of those dads.

Sure everyone today is curious what speed their kid throws. But young pitchers need the emphasis placed on mechanics, not the gun reading. Come to think of it, some older youths could use the same...

And is the pitcher throwing strikes and getting outs

Texan and TR,

Add together what you’re saying, and I think you pretty much have what most of us “older” folks are saying. Although we realize that there’s value in being able to throw the ball hard, we don’t worship it because we know how fickle a God it can be.

As many times as I’ve talked about and thought about this stuff, I have to say I’ve come to a small revelation. Please feel free to either agree or disagree.

As I’ve said before, the main reason I think people like those numbers on the guns is, its really the only objective way of measuring a P that I know of.

However, there are plenty of other ways to measure, but most of them are statistics, and aren’t always reliable because they aren’t always valid. But even if they were, there would be some people who would be glad to use them, but nowhere near a majority. Why is that?

I believe its because in order to truly use stats to analyze pitchers, it takes a lot of time, and a lot of work! To the best of my knowledge, there’s no single stat that can put players in order the way velocities can. The reason is, because of our individual philosophies, we all put different weight on different stats.

You like K’s per BB. Someone else likes WHIP. Another person likes W/L. Another likes ERA. Still another likes strike percentage. Someone else likes opponent BA. Another likes 1st pitch strike percentage. Another likes …. All that is just much more complicated than reading the gun numbers, and being basically lazy, that’s what most folks like.

It’s a shame more people can’t or won’t take the time to look at stats and use them to analyze what’s going on.

Here is a stat. One kid throws 92 and wins. Another throws 82 and wins. Guess who I want on my team?

scorekeeper


I do not think there is anyone "older" on this site than yours truly---a happy 65 years young tomorrow the 29th

I personaly still blieve that there is way to much pressure put on kids to throw harder rather than being able to use deception and throw hitters timing off. I've noticed from my personal experiences that even if I am the on that can get the hitters out my coaches will choose the guy who can throw harder but also may get hit harder. I am a senior and I know that I dont throw hard, only about 75 give or take some, but I am left handed and I just have a way of getting hitters out but still get put behind others. I think the game would be more interesting if coaches would look at how a pitcher throws not how hard he throws.

quote:

Originally posted by TRhit:
scorekeeper

I do not think there is anyone "older" on this site than yours truly---a happy 65 years young tomorrow the 29th

Well, I bow to your seniority. I won’t be 60 until March.

DPHSbasbllplyer,

I’m sorry to say you are now acutely aware of one of the great injustices of baseball. Unfortunately baseball isn’t any more fair than the rest of life.

There are a heck of a lot of coaches like Coach May out there, and I’m not saying they’re wrong, but I am saying that for me, there’s a heck of a lot more to consider.

His assumption implies that somehow the harder throwing guy is more valuable simply because of his greater velocity. Mebbe he is, but then again, mebbe he ain’t. ;-)

quote:

You like K’s per BB. Someone else likes WHIP. Another person likes W/L. Another likes ERA. Still another likes strike percentage. Someone else likes opponent BA. Another likes 1st pitch strike percentage. Another likes …. All that is just much more complicated than reading the gun numbers, and being basically lazy, that’s what most folks like.

It’s a shame more people can’t or won’t take the time to look at stats and use them to analyze what’s going on.

Scorekeeper, I swear I’m not trying to pick you out of the crowd. It’s just that you are very good at stating things that are open for debate.

Are you serious about using stats? Hell, there are professional pitchers who tear up A ball and can’t get anyone out in AA. Should the stats from both levels be weighed equally? Should the pitcher in A ball who has much better statistics than the pitcher in AA be named the better pitcher!

People need to figure out that the millions of dollars spent by who we have to assume are the true experts in baseball (Those running MLB Organizations) has to mean something. Do we really think we are far more superior and knowledgable than those people? They actually do have a reason for what they do. They don’t just provide those guns to their scouts so they can be lazy and get it all wrong! Are we to assume the scouts just read the gun and don’t bother with the rest of the stuff? Are you saying they should work much harder by following the local statistics. Wouldn’t that be the laziest way of all to actually evaluate a pitcher. Wouldn’t even have to leave the house!

So that you know, I’m not totally against statistics and I think some statistics can reveal interesting information. I actually like to see K-BB figures, for example. But for the most part, stats are meaningless to a scout until he can determine the stats belonging to one player, are at the same level as another player. Then those stats wouldn’t mean much when compared to a player competing at a different level of competition. The only place where stats might play a part is when the stats pretty much stink! If we think a player is a good prospect and his stats in high school are terrible… this can be alarming. When you see the top pitchers in the country getting drafted in the early rounds, it’s not just the gun reading alone. They also absolutely dominate at the high school level.

I’m pretty sure you just enjoy the debate, so I’ll stop here.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Are we to assume the scouts just read the gun and don’t bother with the rest of the stuff?

PG, most of the time I'm on the same page with you. But I've got to relate a story that I have seen numerous times.

Scouts are sitting around talking before the game. You hear them say things like: Pitchers have to have mental toughness, they need to throw strikes and have command, they need to have three quality pitches, all the heat in the world is no good if you can't find the plate, etc., etc., etc.

Game starts. Pitcher on the mound is throwing serious heat. Throwing some in the dirt, some over the back stop, some in the batters' ribs and some so far the catcher could't get a glove on it with a ten foot pole. The blue is back there digging a foxhole! The pitcher is getting visibly ticked and starts melting down after he walks his second run of the inning across the plate.

Kind of funny what has happened among the scouts, though. They are salivating all over their guns. All those wise things we heard before the game are gone with the wind. Now what you hear is "You can't teach speed!", "Geezzzz, that last one was 94!!", "Man alive this kid can really bring it!". Not a word mentioned about all those "other characteristics" that are missing in this pitcher.

I have seen that scenario play out on more than a few occasions.

Scouts are human beings. And they fall prey to fads just as surely as corporate CEO's fall for TQM, TPM, Kaizen, Kanban, Six Sigma, BPI and all those other management fads that come and go every five years. You know, each of those fads has some items of merit. But none of them is a sole panacea. Each has some shortcomings. And most of them have been abused to the detriment of the company.

And IMHO, radar readings are the current fad for scouts. Is there some merit? Sure. But it is not a sole panacea.

And the gun does make it a little easier for the scout to get off the hook when someone doesn't work out. [And for crying out loud, there will always been plenty that don't work out. The best scout in the world cannot be expected to be perfect, as some seem to expect them to be. --Not saying at all that you do, PG.] The scout can say, "Dang, but he could sure heave that thing in there. He was lighting the gun up in the mid 90's. Just couldn't quite get that control down. But boy, he could really chunk it..."

quote:

Scouts are sitting around talking before the game. You hear them say things like: Pitchers have to have mental toughness, they need to throw strikes and have command, they need to have three quality pitches, all the heat in the world is no good if you can't find the plate, etc., etc., etc.

Game starts. Pitcher on the mound is throwing serious heat. Throwing some in the dirt, some over the back stop, some in the batters' ribs and some so far the catcher could't get a glove on it with a ten foot pole. The blue is back there digging a foxhole! The pitcher is getting visibly ticked and starts melting down after he walks his second run of the inning across the plate.

Kind of funny what has happened among the scouts, though. They are salivating all over their guns. All those wise things we heard before the game are gone with the wind. Now what you hear is "You can't teach speed!", "Geezzzz, that last one was 94!!", "Man alive this kid can really bring it!". Not a word mentioned about all those "other characteristics" that are missing in this pitcher.

Texan,
You can bet the farm that those scouts wrote what they saw on the report they turned in. The mid 90s is a big deal, but by itself it doesn't make for much of a report. I guarantee you that everyone one of those scouts, scouting director wants to know as much as possible about any mid 90s high school pitcher. Command would be extremely high on the list of what they would want to know. There is no way to avoid that!

Scouting departments have to have something to compare one mid 90s pitcher to the next one. They are not all equal. If someone told me a pitcher throws 95, I would be interested in knowing a lot more about him. That would include many of those things you heard those scouts talking about before the game. But mid 90s, all by itself, will create interest!

What scouts might say in public doesn't neccessarily jell with what they report. If a kid is pitching there's a good chance his parents are setting somewhere close to where the scouts are using the gun. That might be the reason they said what they did, he is mid 90s, can't ignore that, no need to cut him down in front of others.

Texan

Sometimes the more people talk the more they show how little they know

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Scorekeeper, I swear I’m not trying to pick you out of the crowd. It’s just that you are very good at stating things that are open for debate.

Good. Isn’t it kind of worthless to only say things everyone else agrees with?

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:Are you serious about using stats? Hell, there are professional pitchers who tear up A ball and can’t get anyone out in AA. Should the stats from both levels be weighed equally? Should the pitcher in A ball who has much better statistics than the pitcher in AA be named the better pitcher!

Whoa big fella! You’ve done it again! You’re talking about pros, and I’m thinkin’ ‘bout Youth and HS ball.

Now if you want to get into a discussion about stats and their worth, I’ll gladly do that, but this definitely isn’t the place.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:People need to figure out that the millions of dollars spent by who we have to assume are the true experts in baseball (Those running MLB Organizations) has to mean something. Do we really think we are far more superior and knowledgable than those people? They actually do have a reason for what they do. They don’t just provide those guns to their scouts so they can be lazy and get it all wrong! Are we to assume the scouts just read the gun and don’t bother with the rest of the stuff? Are you saying they should work much harder by following the local statistics. Wouldn’t that be the laziest way of all to actually evaluate a pitcher. Wouldn’t even have to leave the house!

Again, you’re making a mountain out of a molehill. I didn’t say jack about how MLB organizations work, and don’t make myself out to be one who knows. I don’t work for them, as obviously you do.

All I was trying to point out was that it isn’t easy using stats to evaluate anything, and because of that, it isn’t done very much, at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:So that you know, I’m not totally against statistics and I think some statistics can reveal interesting information. I actually like to see K-BB figures, for example. But for the most part, stats are meaningless to a scout until he can determine the stats belonging to one player, are at the same level as another player. Then those stats wouldn’t mean much when compared to a player competing at a different level of competition. The only place where stats might play a part is when the stats pretty much stink! If we think a player is a good prospect and his stats in high school are terrible… this can be alarming. When you see the top pitchers in the country getting drafted in the early rounds, it’s not just the gun reading alone. They also absolutely dominate at the high school level.

Once again, you’re thinking ML scouts, something that didn’t even enter my mind!

If you knew more about me, you would know that I’ve spent a considerable amount of time trying desperately to make people understand that the reason stats aren’t reliable at the lower levels is because the numbers stink! The reason the numbers stink is because its rare that anyone gives a flip about how the score is kept. All a lot of people want to is, who won!

Luckily, through a lot of hard work, I’ve managed to gain something of a reputation locally, for someone who not only keeps score pretty darn well, but provides valid statistics. And if anyone looks at the stats I keep on team I score for, they can tell right away that they aren’t normal!

If, and that’s understanding its impossible, every HS and college team had an SK who worked as hard as I have, it would be a lot easier for every evaluator to do their job. It isn’t my fault proper books aren’t kept! I think the Sabermetrics folks have pretty well proved the numbers can be used, even without seeing the players. Math doesn’t lie, unless the beginning numbers aren’t valid.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:I’m pretty sure you just enjoy the debate, so I’ll stop here.

Now that’s the first thing you’ve said I find the least bit insulting.

You made a faulty assumption about who I was talking about, then do a dissertation berating me for saying things I never said, then say I’m the one who simply enjoys the debate.

Fortunately, things like that don’t often bother me for more than a few seconds, because this stuff isn’t life of death to me. I don’t see it as a win or lose life or death situation.

94 on the gun is the same in Vermont, Rhode Island, Florida, Texas and California.

K/BB ratios, WHIP, ERA, etc can not translate from, say, Vermont to Florida and provide any type of comparison for the purpose of evaluating talent. A no hitter with 15 K's is not the same at a small school as it is at a Gulliver Prep, Pace, Hialiah, etc.

Other stats can be meaningless at lower levels because of poor discipline by hitters, poor umping, poor defense affecting pitch counts which in turn affects performance later in game, pitchers overused and also playing other positions, etc.

That being said, I see the difference in a scouts thinking in comparing the 94 mph kid with control problems vs the command pitcher at 76 mph:

Which one can I make more effective quicker.

Can I teach the 94 mph enough command to be effective?

Or, can I develop the kid with good command to get fast enough to be effective against better hitting, because even with his command and current velocity, good hitting is going to have plenty of time to recognize and rip.

In a perfect world, a kid has velocity and command. It is not a perfect world for enough kids. So, which one can more quickly have a blend of both to be effective.

PG, I hear what you are saying. And it obviously makes sense. It is just that it doesn't match what I see play out at times.

But I'm just an ignorant observer.

SK, PG is one of the good guys. I have never seen him intentionally insult anyone.

He offers a great perspective and good knowledge to the board.

Take a deep breath and let those few seconds pass...

PoteetHsbbfan, thanks for posting the question. I've enjoyed the input, you're up to 93 responses so hopefully your question was answered.

This is what I posted. One kid throws 92 and gets kids out the other throws 82 and gets kids out. Guess who I want on my team? Now to say "Im sure there are alot of coaches out there like Coach May" -- Yes a whole lot of them. Are you suggesting that kids should not work to throw hard? Are you suggesting that if you throw hard you can not have command? Here is a fact. Throwing hard and being able to pitch is more valuable than not throwing hard and being able to pitch. You tell me how it is not. I dont care how good your command is and how mentally tough you are if you do not have some velocity to go along with it you are not going to be as effective as the kid that has the same pitching attributes but does have velocity. Scouts want to see a certain range of velocity. Scouts want to see the ability to have command of your pitches. The fact is the more velocity you have the less concerned they are with the ability to have command of your stuff. Why? If you can teach a kid to throw 94 then start your business today and I would like a job because we are going to be rich! You can go to just about any HS game and find a kid that is in the upper 70's low 80's that can locate and pitch. How many of those games can you go to and see a kid throw 90's with the same ability? I wonder why this kid is considered more valuable?

Excellent post Coach May.



PGStaff...you have a PM.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:
This is what I posted. One kid throws 92 and gets kids out the other throws 82 and gets kids out. Guess who I want on my team? Now to say "Im sure there are alot of coaches out there like Coach May" -- Yes a whole lot of them.

Like so may other people who take what’s said on these boards personally, you responded with a quote of mine, taken completely out of text!

Let’s post the whole quote.

I’m sorry to say you are now acutely aware of one of the great injustices of baseball. Unfortunately baseball isn’t any more fair than the rest of life.

There are a heck of a lot of coaches like Coach May out there, and I’m not saying they’re wrong, but I am saying that for me, there’s a heck of a lot more to consider.

His assumption implies that somehow the harder throwing guy is more valuable simply because of his greater velocity. Mebbe he is, but then again, mebbe he ain’t. ;-)

You got your panties in a bunch because of what? Because I said there were a heck of a lot of coaches like you? Because I didn’t say you were wrong? Because I said I didn’t agree with you? Or maybe because I said you IMPLIED something you didn’t intend?

You see now what the trouble is when you try to make short posts assuming everyone who reads them will understand perfectly what you mean.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:Are you suggesting that kids should not work to throw hard? Are you suggesting that if you throw hard you can not have command?

I am suggesting no such thing other than that I believe there is more that should be considered than pure velocity.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:Here is a fact. Throwing hard and being able to pitch is more valuable than not throwing hard and being able to pitch. You tell me how it is not.

You didn’t say one word about being able to pitch, skills, or anything else. All you said was there were 2 kids who could get people out. C’mon now coach, are you gonna say you’ve never come across a P who literally stunk on ice in your opinion, but he could get people out?

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:I dont care how good your command is and how mentally tough you are if you do not have some velocity to go along with it you are not going to be as effective as the kid that has the same pitching attributes but does have velocity.

And? Please show me where I said anything that would dispute that. Remember, I’m not the one who put down the scenario.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:Scouts want to see a certain range of velocity. Scouts want to see the ability to have command of your pitches. The fact is the more velocity you have the less concerned they are with the ability to have command of your stuff.

And? Please show me where I said anything that would dispute that.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:Why? If you can teach a kid to throw 94 then start your business today and I would like a job because we are going to be rich! You can go to just about any HS game and find a kid that is in the upper 70's low 80's that can locate and pitch. How many of those games can you go to and see a kid throw 90's with the same ability? I wonder why this kid is considered more valuable?

You’ve convinced yourself that your scenario of 2 pitchers each being able to get people out means they both have equal abilities other than the velocity. I don’t see that as true and it makes you angry. Why?

All you had to do was say in your scenario that other than one having a velocity 10MPH more than the other, they were both equal, and I wouldn’t have commented on the post.

But nooooo! You want to try to make me out to be an a** because you took a shortcut and I took it literally.

I’m sorry that you and I got off to such a terrible beginning, but what can I say. I guess I’ll just keep readin’ what you write and you keep readin’ what you think you wrote. Then you can get angry with me and make some posts trying to make me look foolish.

S’ok. The only thing I can say is, I’m not some HS aged ball player or some parent frightened to say that what you’re sprayin’ in their face ain’t lemonade because they don’t want to endanger their kid’s chances of playing.

We should never confuse MPH with pitching ability.

That being said, it is a fact that no pitcher will be sharp every time out there.

A 90+ guy is more likely to fare well on those days when he isn't as sharp as usual, for the simple reason that he can have reasonable success just throwing it in there. The 75-80 guy cannot last long doing that. In fact, I would say you'd better be throwing above 85 to have any hope of getting away with it. HS hitters are just too good these days!

I thought all the scorekeepers in Sacramento were the Mom's of the starting pitcher or the SS?

Say hi to Rinaldi for me. He is a good guy and a fine coach.

Scorekeep, may I suggest you argue in front of a mirror, it may be therapeutic. And more efficient.
Good gosh man, have a six-pack and watch some television.

I received an alert about this thread, and I just wanted to check in and say I hope you guys are enjoying some good-natured banter back and forth, not gettin' all upset at each other. (Scorekeeper, in case you are wondering why in the world some mom is sticking her nose in, I am the main moderator/administrator.)

I know a few of the posts here have been a little blunt, but truly it looks to me like all the participants in this thread can have a good time discussing the topic if no one gets too personal. (I enjoy reading the velocity discussions even though my son is past HS!) I'll assume you guys are working things out unless you send me another alert.

Julie

Can I go on record as Not being the one to send the alert! Hate to be called a tattle tale!

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:
Here is a stat. One kid throws 92 and wins. Another throws 82 and wins. Guess who I want on my team?

Who I want greatly depends upon how they got the win. One game doesn't make a season.

As I mentioned earlier, it is a tool vs skill assessment. A top level player has a balance of both. I don't think anyone suggested pitchers are evaluated only on velocity. There are acceptable ranges to be within to be effective. If a player shows ability at one, but not the other, an assessment needs to be made as to liklihood of being a more balanced player.

The ability for the tool guy to develop skill may depend on his ability to make changes, which is a mental part of the game.

The ability for the skill guy to develop tools may depend on his ability to make physical changes.

There have been success stories on both sides, and there have been failures on both sides to bolster arguments.

But, I'm guessing a scout is more confident in his own ability (or that of his organization) to take the tool guy and develop his skills more easeily than the other way around.

Getting back to the Scorekeeper comment about basing his argument on Sabermetrics (while saying he is only discussing the youth game, where Sabermetrics are pretty much useless) is an indcation he is just looking to keep the argument alive. I think he likes the attention, and to show himself how good a scorekeeper he is. Congratulations, you're a great scorekeeper, and congratulations for being recognized as that. But, that hardly justifies your to coming here to argue with anyone and everyone for the sole purpose of letting everyone see that.

But the stats at youth level are so inconclusive that they cannot be used to measure talent level for comparison purposes. I refer back to undisciplined hitters affecting everything from K ratios to 1st pitch strike ratios. You can destroy every stat at the youth level because of components which affect the game that just do not happen at a higher level. How about pitch counts and the need for a pitcher to get 5 outs per inning and the affect that that has on his effectiveness as the game and season go on? That does not even begin to address the level at which the game and/or opponent is playing.

quote:

Originally posted by Midlo Dad:
We should never confuse MPH with pitching ability.

That being said, it is a fact that no pitcher will be sharp every time out there.

A 90+ guy is more likely to fare well on those days when he isn't as sharp as usual, for the simple reason that he can have reasonable success just throwing it in there. The 75-80 guy cannot last long doing that. In fact, I would say you'd better be throwing above 85 to have any hope of getting away with it. HS hitters are just too good these days!

I want to say I agree with you 100%, and I would if you just didn’t imply that all HS hitters have the ability to chew up and spit out every 75-80 P, even if they’re just layin’ the ball in there.

Even if you take the state champion of any state you might choose, chances are, there’s gonna be a few kids in the lineup who aren’t gonna be what anyone would call much better than average hitters, if that.

But other than that, what you said makes very good sense to me.

I think a lot of us would agree that a typical high school team with three or four GOOD ball players are contenders and one with five or six will be State Champs, or close to it.

quote:

Originally posted by bbscout:
I thought all the scorekeepers in Sacramento were the Mom's of the starting pitcher or the SS?

Evidently you’ve looked at the HS stats of players from this area!

Maybe this will tell you how I try to keep score.

In the 100+ HS games I scored for my son’s HS team, of the batters who had more than 25 ABs I scored, there were only 6 players in 3 years who batted cumulatively over .300. The highest was .379, and he got a ride to UC Davis.

Our team cumulative BA for 3,054 ABs was .281. Our opponents had a cumulative average of .271. But if we throw out the numbers for the team we played that only won 1 game at any level in 4 years, our cumulative BA would drop to .271 and our opponents average would go up to .275.

To me, at least that’s being pretty even handed, and boy did I take a lot of heat from our parents about that!

quote:

Originally posted by bbscout:
Say hi to Rinaldi for me. He is a good guy and a fine coach.

Will definitely do!

You’re right, he is definitely a cut above most of the coaches in the area. I’m really looking forward to seeing what the kids’ll do this year. Its their 1st year of V ball, and he’s had them since they were frosh.

I think they might be able to pull off a .500 year. I suspect he’d be disappointed with that, but considering the league they’ll be playing in, I’d consider it a great start.

Were you around here when Franklin first got going? My son was a Jr the 1st time we played them, and I told people they were gonna be a serious contender within just a few years. I got to tell a lot of folks I told ya so last year! ;-)

If you have the occasion to do one of PG’s games, please stop by and say hi!

Say, you aren’t the guy Red Adams is always telling me about are you?

Scorekeeper you did not make me angry. I respect everyones opinion. I dont get angry very often. I get angry when kids dont hustle or disrespect the game. But that is not very often.

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:Getting back to the Scorekeeper comment about basing his argument on Sabermetrics (while saying he is only discussing the youth game, where Sabermetrics are pretty much useless) is an indcation he is just looking to keep the argument alive. I think he likes the attention, and to show himself how good a scorekeeper he is. Congratulations, you're a great scorekeeper, and congratulations for being recognized as that. But, that hardly justifies your to coming here to argue with anyone and everyone for the sole purpose of letting everyone see that.

If you can find where I was saying I was only discussing the youth game, I’d appreciate you pointing it out. I’m pretty sure I was saying I wasn’t only thinking of the high level game.

The Sabermetric argument was only intended to show that good numbers can be used as very good predictors.

What I like to do is stick my finger in the eye of someone who tries to say numbers won’t work, just because. They will work for a lot of things, and can easily be used to refute the dogmatic views of hardheads who think they’re perceptions are infallible.

Is it a crime that I’m proud I do a good job? Do you climb on everyone else’s back who trots out their resume trying to make a point?

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:But the stats at youth level are so inconclusive that they cannot be used to measure talent level for comparison purposes. I refer back to undisciplined hitters affecting everything from K ratios to 1st pitch strike ratios. You can destroy every stat at the youth level because of components which affect the game that just do not happen at a higher level. How about pitch counts and the need for a pitcher to get 5 outs per inning and the affect that that has on his effectiveness as the game and season go on? That does not even begin to address the level at which the game and/or opponent is playing.

You’re right, but you didn’t go quite far enough. It isn’t just the stats at the youth level, 13U that are inconclusive, it’s the same thing for the HS and to a large degree the college level too!

Anytime you see the book the stats will come from being kept in a dugout, you can pretty much bet the house the numbers will be invalid, of for no other reason than the scoring isn’t done IAW the rule set the game is being played under.

Is it my fault too that no one feels its necessary to teach players the rules, let alone those being asked to keep score?

You’re pretty much taking the same high and mighty position most other people do. Shoot the messenger!

Guys like you abound in the bleachers of every park in the world. The ump makes a call you don’t agree with and they stink, don’t know the rules, or are out of position. The same thing happens with SKs. They’ll score an error on a ball your kid hit, or won’t score an error on a ball hit off your kid, and they suck and they don’t know what they’re talking about!

Well, get your butt out there and become the umpire everyone thinks never misses a call, or show up for every game to keep score so the numbers will be consistent. If you do either, everyone and the game will be much better for it.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:
Scorekeeper you did not make me angry. I respect everyones opinion. I dont get angry very often. I get angry when kids dont hustle or disrespect the game. But that is not very often.

If that’s true, You have my sincere apology for misinterpreting what I read.

I’m taking a pretty good but whompin’ around here, and most of its because the folks on this board aren’t used to the way I write. And since I’m certainly not used to the way they do ether, its causing a lot of finger pointing because of simple misinterpretations.

I know that will eventually go away, and in the mean time I have no problem at all with apologizing for erroneous conceptions. I’m just getting a little bit rubbed raw when no one else will try to meet me half way.

Scorekeeper continue to post and speak your mind. If everyone agreed with oneanother here it would be too boring for me. I respect everyones opinion and I learn from everyone here. I do not always agree with my fellow posters and they do not always agree with me. I have been blasted before and Im sure I will again. What makes this site so special is we all love baseball and we all care enough to be here. Please continue to be a part of our baseball community and believe me when I say it is never personal with me. We all have opinions and they are all valuable.

SK quote:
"If you can find where I was saying I was only discussing the youth game, I’d appreciate you pointing it out. I’m pretty sure I was saying I wasn’t only thinking of the high level game."

Well, let me help you out pal:

SK quote:
"All I was trying to point out was that it isn’t easy using stats to evaluate anything, and because of that, it isn’t done very much, at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"

I don't see you including the high level game. In fact, you say: "at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"

Looks pretty clear to me.


SK quote:
Is it my fault too that no one feels its necessary to teach players the rules, let alone those being asked to keep score?

Who's blaming you for anything?


SK quote:
You’re pretty much taking the same high and mighty position most other people do. Shoot the messenger!

Your message is that you argue for the sake of arguing. Quick to point out to to others...."...that's not what I said". Then you twist their words into something they didn't say, and try to use those words in your argument. You're quite comical.


SK quote:
Guys like you abound in the bleachers of every park in the world. The ump makes a call you don’t agree with and they stink, don’t know the rules, or are out of position. The same thing happens with SKs. They’ll score an error on a ball your kid hit, or won’t score an error on a ball hit off your kid, and they suck and they don’t know what they’re talking about!

I don't know what the heck you're talking about here (there you go twisting words, like you accuse others of doing). But, I said umping at youth level is not as good as pro level. How you twist that to mean I gripe about calls is beyond me. I never complain about calls. Never! That being said, are you saying youth umps are as good as MLB umps? Thus making the balls and strikes reliable for your great stat keeping? C'mon pal, be real. Nor do I question the scorekeeper, which for many years was me (Ahhhhh! BTW, I was quite good at it.) Or, is that just your condescending tone you use with anyone who questions the great Oz, I mean Scorekeeper.


SK quote:
Well, get your butt out there and become the umpire everyone thinks never misses a call, or show up for every game to keep score so the numbers will be consistent. If you do either, everyone and the game will be much better for it.

There you go again. You seem to have a sore spot with the ump thing.


You need to develop some of that California Cool us East Coaster's her about. You sound like a heart attack waiting to happen.

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:
Well, let me help you out pal:

SK quote:
"All I was trying to point out was that it isn’t easy using stats to evaluate anything, and because of that, it isn’t done very much, at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"

I don't see you including the high level game. In fact, you say: "at the levels I was thinking about. Youth and HS!"

Looks pretty clear to me.

First of all why don’t you quit posturing by using words and phrases intended to do nothing but cause problems. I am not your PAL!

Second, although HS ball is definitely youthful to me, I don’t see it ordinarily included in the term “youth ball”.

But if it will make you feel like a big man, I’ll be glad to admit I completely misspoke. Happy now?

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:
Who's blaming you for anything?

Evidently I thought you were blaming me for all the ills of scorekeeping the world over.

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:
Your message is that you argue for the sake of arguing. Quick to point out to to others...."...that's not what I said". Then you twist their words into something they didn't say, and try to use those words in your argument. You're quite comical.

Excuse me? You’re the one doing all the twisting and attacking for no good reason I can determine.

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:
I don't know what the heck you're talking about here (there you go twisting words, like you accuse others of doing). But, I said umping at youth level is not as good as pro level. How you twist that to mean I gripe about calls is beyond me. I never complain about calls. Never! That being said, are you saying youth umps are as good as MLB umps? Thus making the balls and strikes reliable for your great stat keeping? C'mon pal, be real. Nor do I question the scorekeeper, which for many years was me (Ahhhhh! BTW, I was quite good at it.) Or, is that just your condescending tone you use with anyone who questions the great Oz, I mean Scorekeeper.

Just for the record, you said:

Other stats can be meaningless at lower levels because of poor discipline by hitters, poor umping, poor defense affecting pitch counts which in turn affects performance later in game, pitchers overused and also playing other positions, etc.

Wouldn’t want to be accused of misquoting or twisting.

But, that statement never entered my mind. All I could think of is all the games I’ve sat there and had to listen to people who are legends in their own mind, regaling everyone near them with their great expertise and insight.

You are the only person I’ve ever heard of who has NEVER complained about an umpire’s call. I’m better than most, but even I have had my doubts out loud.

quote:

Originally posted by wayback:
There you go again. You seem to have a sore spot with the ump thing.

You need to develop some of that California Cool us East Coaster's her about. You sound like a heart attack waiting to happen.

What I have is a sore spot for those who can’t or won’t try to do better what they point out in others.

I think I’ve been pretty cool just dealing with someone like you over this stuff. Now that you’ve shown the big bad California dude who’s really the boss around here, you act like a grown up.

Congratulations! You win! Yo da man!

Scorekeeper,

I am getting the distinct impression from your public posts and your PMs to me that you might have come on the site with an agenda other than talking baseball.

Would you please take another look at the Board Manners page of our site and then send me another PM? Thanks.

Other than being a new guy on the block and taking a stand or two, I don't understand what SK had done to deserve the attacks. Sure he can come on strong at times. But no more so than quite a few others on this board (including myself).

The man has a good deal of knowledge. Yes, his posts are long. So what. If someone's attention span can't handle that, then don't read them.

This board has a way of ganging up on new posters. We need to back off that some and cut new folks a little slack.

MN-Mom,

It would appear so IMO.

Seems like every post has at least one - if not more than one - "cyber body slams" in it.

Doesnt make a difference what the topic is - just the same repetitive pattern.

I believe I see Chuck Barris - waiting in the wings. LOL

Texan,

This new "poster" - asked some personal questions - and when he got some answers - he responded like an immature child.

And that may have been his best post. LOL

quote:

Originally posted by itsinthegame:
... he responded like an immature child.

Well, he is far from alone...

Yeah - thats another brilliant one liner.

LOL

And while we are at it - why didnt he answer the same question he posed to me?

I answered it. Very specifically.

And when I asked him to answer the very same question - he threw out one liners - and another litany of diversions.

How totally bogus.
IMO.

Back to the original question.

Did a quick and dirty tally of the PG National Underclass (held 12/06). Looked at '08 pitchers. Before anyone nitpicks, I may well have missed one or two (or three even). Or inadvertently included an '09. Or otherwise have messed up.

Of the 111 '08 pitchers:
Average: 83 mph
Mode: 82 mph
Median: 83 mph
Maximum: 94 mph
Minimum: 70 mph

73 of the 111 were at 85 mph or below.
22 of the 111 were in the 70's.
75 of the 111 were in the 80's.
14 of the 111 were in the 90's.

I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.

FWIW

quote:

I would think that one would consider the overall PGNU field to be significantly above average in terms of skills, relative to the entire population of HS pitchers across the country.

Wonder what % of HS players ever go to ANY showcase, let along one that elite and expensive. Maybe 10%. Probably less. Pitchers who go are those who feel they have good "showcase appeal," mostly meaning they throw hard.

Even then, 83 mph is average at that event.

I'll guess that 80% of 90mph hurlers have been to one or more showcases versus <10% of sub-70mph pitchers.

I would guess that you are in the ballpark on those figures.

Texan and Micdsguy,

You very well could be correct. But if you want to see the most mind boggling numbers ever, checkout these results from The PG National held at U of Arkansas this past June. Thought you might enjoy these crazy numbers.

PG National June 06
All high school pitchers

98 total pitchers

All 98 Were 86 MPH or higher

31 Were in the 80S

67 Were in the 90S

16 Were 94 or higher

25 LHP average – 90.32 MPH
73 RHP average – 91.30 MPH
Total average of 98 pitchers – 91.05 mph

This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.

I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
Wonder what % of HS players ever go to ANY showcase, let along one that elite and expensive. Maybe 10%. Probably less. Pitchers who go are those who feel they have good "showcase appeal," mostly meaning they throw hard.

Even then, 83 mph is average at that event.

I'll guess that 80% of 90mph hurlers have been to one or more showcases versus <10% of sub-70mph pitchers.

With a little bit of rough math, some crude assumptions, and perhaps a little help from PGStaff, we can prolly get a reasonable number.

According to the High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the NFHS during the 2005-06 season, there were 470,671 baseball participants, in 15,290 schools.

See: http://www.nfhs.org/web/2006/09/participation_in_high_s...ain_confirms_nf.aspx

Since we don’t know how many total HS teams there are, we have to play some games.

Using the above numbers, it works out to almost 31 players per school. Based on my meager experience, that works out to something less than 3 teams per school, since most HS’s have at least 15 players per team, so let’s call it 2 teams per school. That would mean there are approximately 30,580 total teams. Fr, Jv, and V.

Again, based on my limited experience, I’d say there might be an average of 6 P’s per team who get more than a few token or mop up innings. That would be 183,000+ pitchers. I suppose an argument could be made that in most cases, only V P’s have the skills necessary to even bother going through the expense of a showcase, but for the sake of trying to answer micdsguy’s above quoted initial question, its immaterial.

So assuming that 183K number is reasonable, all that would have to happen is we’d need to know how many different, not total, P’s went to showcases at all. Very likely, since PG is by far the big dawg in show case providers, if PGStaff could tell us how many different kids went to their showcases, we’d begin to get a much clearer picture.

Wow...those numbers are pretty scary.

That must've been some showcase.



PGStaff....you have a PM.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
This was from one showcase, but possibly one with the most talent ever assembled. So this would be taking it to the very highest level of high school baseball.

That was one of my points.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
I know there are people who will not believe the above numbers, but they are true.

Don't doubt your numbers, obviously. But what percent does 98 pitchers constitute of all the HS pitchers in the country?

Pretty miniscule, I would think. According to this site, there are approximately 455,000 baseball players. I would estimate that approximately 25-30% of them pitch. So you are talking about 0.09% of the country's pitchers who attended the National. Hardly what we could call "average". Certainly shows the quality of athlete PG is drawing.

PGStaff: Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.

Did those kids have to pay you to attend?
Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas). Where did names come from for the invitation list?

--
183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.

If you didn't throw at least 86, you weren't invited.

90 is much rarer when you consider that virtually all kids who throw 90 do SOME HS pitching. So you should consider that 500 at 90mph to be from a universe of 470,000 "baseball participants" and not just 183,000 pitchers.

99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.

Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?

quote:

PGStaff: Obviously that showcase was by invitation only.

Yes

Did those kids have to pay you to attend?

Yes

Did they pay their own transportation (which wouldn't be cheap for most of them to get to Arkansas).

Yes

Where did names come from for the invitation list?

Our core business is scouting. We rank players. We invite the players we would rank the highest. Our job is to know who the best prospects are. The names come off of our own list, with some help from some friendly MLB Scouting departments.

--
183,000 pitchers and maybe 500 are around 90 mph. 3/10th of one percent. Far less than one percent even at varsity level.

500 is probably tretching it a bit. I'd say about half that would be closer in most years. No matter how you look at it, it is a very small percentage.

quote:

If you didn't throw at least 86, you weren't invited.

Texan, We had reason to believe all the pitchers who were invited would at least touch 90. It just never works out that way.

quote:

Originally posted by Scorekeeper:

quote:

Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.

Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?

If the pitchers who have good command also have a good live arm, then they would get the attention of scouts. If they throw loli pops, they won't get any attention. If you throw 87-88 with command, you will get attention. If you throw 80-81 with command, you won't

quote:

quote:
Originally posted by micdsguy:
99.9% of HS players can't hit 90mph. Also explains why scouts like to start with that tiny group before they pan for gold among the other 183,000 pitchers.


Does anyone care about the P who’s in the top .1% of ability when it comes to command/control? Of course there’s no way to figger that out, but assuming there were, would it be anywhere near as valuable to scouts as velocity?

scorekeeper,

Yes, everyone cares about command and control... They jus care about it a whole lot more when a pitcher can throw 90+. Why would anyone think the pitchers mentioned lacked command and control?

One, a high school pitcher from Arizona threw mid 90s. As a junior in high school he struck out 122 and walked 8. At 6'7 his best pitch is the slider.

And again we must differentiate between the college prospect and the pro prospect---they don't necessarily get lumped together

I was kinda askin’ tongue in cheek, but I’ve always felt that if someone was so gifted with the kind of command it would take to be in the top .1% of all HS P’s, he’d would have to have value on that alone. Of course that’s assuming he can throw the ball with any kind of velocity, if he’s not a KB thrower.

Unfortunately, as I’ve repeatedly said, there is no objective way to measure command that I know of, so the question is pretty moot. After all, its not like there’s a target up there with points awarded for getting closest to the bull’s eye, is there. ;-)

But all the arguing aside, from what I’ve been told and seen, a player who is in the top .1% in any baseball skill is a valuable commodity. Speed, fielding ability, velocity, power, or anything else at that level will get somebody’s attention.

quote:

And again we must differentiate between the college prospect and the pro prospect---they don't necessarily get lumped together

TRhit

TR, That is a very good point, I think I understand what you mean, but I believe the majority of those referred to above will in fact end up in college. Even though they are good pro prospects.

One point that always seems to get lost in these velocity discussions is... Maybe about 100, or even less, pitchers will be drafted and signed out of high school in a year. Yet we all know there are many more good pitchers than that. The DIs don't get them all, but those are the ones they are looking for.

I could be wrong, but I keep hearing about all these DI pitchers who throw in the 70s. Who and where are they? I'm sure there are a few, but I just don't see it! Are people looking at curveball or off speed velocities? If that were true about those 70 something mph pitchers, then the average high school pitcher is a DI prospect! (Back to the original topic) By some of the guesstimates I read, the below average high school pitcher is a DI prospect at that velocity, if he can pitch.

I just wish someone would tell me who all these 70 mph guys are that are being recruited and pitching at the DI level.

Isn't the fastball still the main pitch in baseball? Without it, the other stuff isn't as effective. Can a "good" fastball be in the 70s? I'm just asking?

I don't mean this to discourage any young pitcher. If they throw in the 70s, they should work at increasing their velocity. Or they should gear in on the majority of colleges, the small colleges, which far outnumber the DIs.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Can a "good" fastball be in the 70s? I'm just asking?

Theoretically, yes.

It would have to move like crazy (and late) and ideally you'd pair it up with a change-up that was virtually indistinguishable from it (but slow enough to still screw a guy up).

It would also be nice if the guy had a 12-6 hit-me-if-you-can curveball.

All of that is possible, but asking a lot.

PGStaff,

You’ve heard someone say there were P’s throwing in the 70’s that were recruited? As bad as I am, I’ve never ever heard anything like that. I’ve seen more than a few walk on college P’s who couldn’t hit 80 with a big tailing wind, but never one recruited.

I don’t know if a “good” FB can be in the 70’s, but does it take a “good” FB to get out every college hitter?

I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!

And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Texan, We had reason to believe all the pitchers who were invited would at least touch 90. It just never works out that way.

Awww, I was just kidding you a little...

quote:

Originally posted by Scorekeeper:


I don’t think you’re being discouraging at all! In fact, I wish more people would say that out loud, and so often, everyone would “get it”. The thing I’ve always found so offensive is, there are scads of folks out there who not only think there is no decent college baseball other then D1, they actually demean the rest of it!

And yet, every year we see players getting drafted from every level of college ball, Not to mention, signing pro contracts with ML teams as un-drafted free agents from places like non-affiliated pro teams and foreign countries. And its not like the players signing other than D1 players are rare.

Scorekeeper - just my observations.

I am now in that position with a son that plays D-2 ball. And I wouldnt get ticked off at what other people say. First - they arent playing the game - they are talking - and sometimes writing. But they aint playing. They are not "In the game" - LOL

Second - and as you well know - a quick peek at the stats - the MLB rosters - and the backgrounds of the players will tell you all you need to know about this issue.

It is sometimes difficult to accurately express opinions on a messageboard.

I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.

scorekeeper,

If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!

Here is just one example of many around the country. I have a sr that is a RHP also very good posistion player. He is 6'3 180 runs a 6.8 60 and hit 8 hrs last year and drove in 38 runs in 29 games. At a recent showcase he threw 94 mph on a jugs and 92 on a stalker consistently. He will not be going to a D-1 school he will be attending a JC in the area. Why? Grades. He has been contacted by several D-1 programs but the fact is he does not have the academic requirements to attend. How many more players are there out there like this? How many late bloomers are out there? Guys who go D-3 or D-2 that came out of HS a little small or a little slow or maybe they were mid 80's guys and after a couple of years in college took off. There are numerous guys playing at the non D-1 level that are outstanding players. Heck we had a kid a few years ago that sat the bench and rarely took the hill. I think he pitched 6 or 7 innings his sr year. He was a 80 mph guy but had good size at 6-3 around 200lbs. He walked on at a local JC and by his second year was in the starting rotation throwing 88. He then transferred to a D-1 program and pitched two years there earning all conference honors. There are alot of different ways to reach your goals. Its not where you start the race but how you finish it.

I think for the kids out there who wont be going to a D-1 school to play baseball - or who will be - but wont be seeing alot of playing time - the posts from people like PG and Coach May - (guys who are as totally immersed in the game as a person can be) - are actually encouraging for these players.

What most people - (particularly those who dont "live with the game" or are "in the game") - say or write means nothing.

Work hard - play hard - and enjoy it. That is what matters IMO.

Coach May,

That's what I tell 'em at the golf course all the time.

"It's not how you drive but how you arrive" JK

Nick Markakis is a good JUCO example. He "just signed a huge contract with Orioles" yesterday.
A far cry from Young Harris College. Another one that comes to mind is Adam Loewen from Chipola who is also on the doorstep. peace shep

quote:

Originally posted by itsinthegame:
Scorekeeper - just my observations.

I am now in that position with a son that plays D-2 ball. And I wouldnt get ticked off at what other people say. First - they arent playing the game - they are talking - and sometimes writing. But they aint playing. They are not "In the game" - LOL

Second - and as you well know - a quick peek at the stats - the MLB rosters - and the backgrounds of the players will tell you all you need to know about this issue.

Yeah, my brain knows that’s true, but after watching my son overcome the obstacles he did, which no kid should ever have to do, I became much more attuned than most, to the angst those ignorant fools “talking”, could do to kids and families.

There’s no way of knowing how many players that kind of ignorance causes to leave the game, and it’s a terrible reason for kids to stop playing. The worst thing is, it doesn’t just happen at the college level, it happens as low as when kids just aren’t good enough to make the All Star traveling team from their little league, and it continues from there.

I like to see the message that every player who loves the game, should do his best to keep playing! Kids who get to play for the best, with the best, and against the best, certainly have advantages. But no matter if it’s a big D1 school like USC, or a tiny JC in North Dakota, its still baseball, and no one knows what’s gonna happen between that HS Sr year and that last year of college.

My daddy told me "Dont come to me with excuses boy, bring me solutions or shut the hell up"! Thats not a joke thats the truth. I refuse to allow anyone to controll my destiny, period. I will do that. My children have been taught the same thing. There will always be skeptics. There will always be people who doubt you. There will always be people who will throw roadblocks in your way. And life itself will throw obstacles in your way. SO WHAT!!! No fn excuses , they mean nothing to me. If you want it go do it. Hell everyone has a million reasons why they didnt do this , couldnt do that. I frankly could careless about excuses. Bring me solutions.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
It is sometimes difficult to accurately express opinions on a messageboard.

TRUER WORDS WERE NEVER SPOKEN!

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:I sure hope no one would think that I was trying to belittle smaller colleges. I can assure you that I am a small college fan. What others have brought up is very accurate. The best players in the world have traveled many different paths to reach the top.

I don’t think anyone on this board would belittle any college or any college player for any reason. Once you get to the point where that level becomes real, you realize just how hard it is to get there. But it does happen the lower level you are away from college. [/QUOTE]

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
scorekeeper,

If you don't watch out, your going to change everyone's mind and people around here are going to start liking you. Cut it out!

Regarding what Coach May said, the two hardest throwers in our league are committed to JC ball.. because of grades.

It's too bad, because they are affable, likeable kids who communicate well. They're not dummies, and they're not bad-apples. They've been playing select ball their entire lives and it makes me wonder why they didn't put a lick of effort into their homework!

I think that, then I look back at myself at age 17. Had to go into the military to get some discipline, then come out and pay my own way through college. For some of these kids, they just need time to mature and they'll be okay. DI as a freshman is not for everyone.

JUCOs are full of brainy players who got only one or two scholarship offers to PLAY college ball. In terms of baseball, most D-3s are far inferior to top JUCO baseball programs. And it is a hoot to say you have a full scholarship to play, even if the school is nearly free to begin with. Many kids just want to stay around town.

Financially, a 20% scholy to a $40k D-1 is a great financial deal for the fancy university but not for Mom and Dad. Especially if junior sits for two years.


Many kids--even from JUCOs-- will go on to graduate school in time. Where a student spends his first two years isn't important in the long term.

A significant portion of the very best players in Texas go JUCO so they will remain draft eligible, rather than having to wait until after their Junior year.

Sometimes we throw out the "D1" term, thinking about the top D1's in the country. In reality, there are more than a few weak D1's out there. And some strong JUCO, D2, D3 & NAIA programs.

Are there truly strong D-3 programs (except when a school lucks into a couple of really strong pitchers who bloomed late.

I've looked at the bios of players on our local D-3s. Most players had pretty pedestrian baseball resumes in HS. Bench types. Seems many of the better players come in as JUCO transfers during the junior year. Ivy Leagues may be a bit different.

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No question Top D-2s can be ferocious. Plenty of Sunbelt JUCOs could regularly beat low D-1s