“Hot” radar guns

I’ve seen something similar with Baseball Factory. Freshmen Player in our organization had a top pull down speed of 72 in September. Attends a Baseball Factory event exactly one month later and hits 85. Not a big kid or anything, maybe around 5’5. Wasn’t at the event but could only imagine the look on his face when he saw 85.

@DroppedStrikeThree posted:

Is it a thing? If so, does it matter? We’ve been very heads down until now and not really looking around.

I took the helpful suggestion to check the PG leaderboards. Most of the kids show up consistently across events. There is one event though where each top Velo reading is consistently 3-4 MPH faster than any other pitch ever thrown by the first 5 pitchers I checked.

More a curiosity than anything else but it got me wondering.

Yes, it’s a thing. But it doesn’t matter as much as you might think.  College coaches and MLB scouts are going to take their own readings with their own guns if they have interest. They don’t trust the metrics that are published by PG, PBR or anyone else. There are way too many inaccuracies

I guessed / hoped that was the answer. Thanks for confirming.

And they all compare as they sit in the stands to make sure they are right.  I heard that Baylor's field gun at the Area Code tryouts was about 2mph faster than all the scouts were showing.  They know.

@baseballhs posted:

And they all compare as they sit in the stands to make sure they are right.  I heard that Baylor's field gun at the Area Code tryouts was about 2mph faster than all the scouts were showing.  They know.

Stadium gun at DBU is 2-3 mph hot. Everyone in North Texas knows it is.

I will say that if a PBR or PG event posts a "hot" number for your pitcher then it will only help him/her get noticed.  My son went to a event & hit 86 on the gun (pitching) and that resulted in JUCO coaches contacting him.  One coach wasn't even at that particular event, so I'm guessing he had no way of knowing if the gun was "hot".  IMO hitting certain numbers IS important before coaches take notice (at least for pitchers anyway).  Once they take notice then the discussions (and evaluations) can start.  On the flip side I think if a high-school team is posting radar numbers those aren't considered by the college coaches as closely.  Maybe that's a wrong assumption and posting a HS workout number will get noticed... I'd love to hear someone's experience with that.

@hs21pitchersDAD posted:

I will say that if a PBR or PG event posts a "hot" number for your pitcher then it will only help him/her get noticed.  My son went to a event & hit 86 on the gun (pitching) and that resulted in JUCO coaches contacting him.  One coach wasn't even at that particular event, so I'm guessing he had no way of knowing if the gun was "hot".  IMO hitting certain numbers IS important before coaches take notice (at least for pitchers anyway).  Once they take notice then the discussions (and evaluations) can start.  On the flip side I think if a high-school team is posting radar numbers those aren't considered by the college coaches as closely.  Maybe that's a wrong assumption and posting a HS workout number will get noticed... I'd love to hear someone's experience with that.

Okay, I will bite.  Pitchers velo numbers are the metrics that matter the most - but maybe not for a different reason than you think. The vast majority of college coaches that attend most showcase events don’t know as much as you think about how to evaluate pitchers. They are almost always the low man on the totem pole and are the least experienced - grad assistants or volunteer assts. Many of them have never pitched an inning in their life - so their first line of demarcation is something everyone can understand. Fastball velocity. And the magic number varies by program and level of competition but 90 is the most common. The first cull is made on FB velo (based on HC or PC criteria) and then the list is whittled down from there. But as I said earlier any school or scout will verify readings with their own guns.

adbono - I agree with everything you're saying and yes the schools eventually used their own guns or at least watched my son in action in live games.  I'm not saying I know their reasons, just sharing my experiences.  To your point... I don't know what a "hot" radar gun at a specific field really proves.  However, if it's a scouted event and the gun is hot... that's a different story if you're trying to get recruited by a college.

Son swore home field gun was hot by a few ticks.

A lot of the tournaments now use Pocket Radars on a tripod. They are usually pretty accurate if used straight on with the pitcher, but otherwise read slow. In some cases, an anomalous reading shows up though. A kid on my son's team who had been throwing 76-77 on a "slow gun", got a reading in the mid 80's. When he found that out after the game he was super happy, and couldn't wait to tell his pitching coach and friends. I saw the pitch and the subsequent reading. It was a misfire that bounced about 10' from home plate.

   That max velo was posted on the tournament game log, and is now on public record, if someone cares to dig enough.

Unfortunately there is an incentive for showcases to publish reads like this because they can use that as a proof they get "elite players" making it more attractive to parents.

I think the college recruiters are not fooled by this if that happens regularly at that event but it is about getting money from the parents and if you can tweet out 90s all the time it might impress some parents.

It is a business.

@2023Catcher posted:

Player in my son's class who is actually very solid player posted an 89 at a PG event at 14u (he was actually 15u grade age playing down at the time, but I digress). At the same event the player posted the sole 89 he posted mostly 82-83 otherwise and didn't touch 89 again--but PG posted it anyway.  I suspect it was the exit velocity of ball and should not have been posted.  But it was.  Player and his organization tweeted the hell out of that reading for a long time.  It appears on the profile.  Player was offered by ACC School as a Freshman as a P.  Player has not posted much beyond 82 since.   Two years have passed and as far as I know the player is still around 85. RHP.  Do I think the 89 mattered to said ACC school that offered him during COVID and his Freshman year without a visit. Damn straight. Do I think that player will ever play for said ACC School. Not a chance.  Please tell me who this benefits.

That's actually might be a new pitching technique to increase your FB velo. Throw to Aaron Judge and then post an exit velocity.....  just saying you gonna turn some heads

It also goes the other way, was at a local showcase and they had a grad assistant (I think) running the pocket radar. I was watching the game before my son's game and he was taking readings from half way between home and the first place dugout. The pitcher was pitching consistent 84-85 (by my eye) I asked him what the speed of that pitcher was and he said 79-80. I said, I am not sure but I think with pocket radar you need to be in a straight line with the pitch. He said, let me try that out, went behind home plate and he lifted his fingers to show the kid just pitched 86 and gave me a thumbs up and stayed behind the plate the rest of the day.

is there value to playing the hot guns to your advantage?  if, for example, a kid pitches but isn't a "pitcher", pre se. has a live arm and goes to an event at Baylor (where a known hot gun is). pops a good number, gets some schools to reach out and then tells them that he can pitch but prefers to play 3rd/C/whatever.  Will the eye popping number that's posted at least get him some looks?

@TxballDad posted:

It also goes the other way, was at a local showcase and they had a grad assistant (I think) running the pocket radar. I was watching the game before my son's game and he was taking readings from half way between home and the first place dugout. The pitcher was pitching consistent 84-85 (by my eye) I asked him what the speed of that pitcher was and he said 79-80. I said, I am not sure but I think with pocket radar you need to be in a straight line with the pitch. He said, let me try that out, went behind home plate and he lifted his fingers to show the kid just pitched 86 and gave me a thumbs up and stayed behind the plate the rest of the day.

You are making my argument for me (that I alluded to in a prior post). Some of these guys evaluating pitchers are very green. What they know about pitching is that 90 is more than 86.

@mattys posted:

is there value to playing the hot guns to your advantage?  if, for example, a kid pitches but isn't a "pitcher", pre se. has a live arm and goes to an event at Baylor (where a known hot gun is). pops a good number, gets some schools to reach out and then tells them that he can pitch but prefers to play 3rd/C/whatever.  Will the eye popping number that's posted at least get him some looks?

A teammate of my son pitched one inning in the 15U WWBA the summer entering HS.  Later on that evening I was looking at the website and they mistakenly recorded this kid hitting 85 (he was a high 70s kid).  The score keeper didn't realize he left the game and gave him credit for all the pitches thrown the next inning by a new pitcher.  He didn't do anything else all summer but was listed as a PG pre-season All-American.  He switched to football and never hit the recruiting trail again so I'll never know how this might have helped him, but I doubt any coach would be fooled by this.

@2023Catcher posted:

Player in my son's class who is actually very solid player posted an 89 at a PG event at 14u (he was actually 15u grade age playing down at the time, but I digress). At the same event the player posted the sole 89 he posted mostly 82-83 otherwise and didn't touch 89 again--but PG posted it anyway.  I suspect it was the exit velocity of ball and should not have been posted.  But it was.  Player and his organization tweeted the hell out of that reading for a long time.  It appears on the profile.  Player was offered by ACC School as a Freshman as a P.  Player has not posted much beyond 82 since.   As far as I know the player is still around 85. RHP.  Do I think the 89 matters to said ACC school that offered him during COVID and his Freshman year without a visit. Damn straight. Do I think that player will ever play for said ACC School. Not a chance.  Please tell me who this benefits.

I followed several games from the PG MLK tourney this past weekend on Diamondkast.  I noted 3 different kids post personal record max velocity pitches, all 3 to 4 mph higher than any other pitch they threw all day.  All were hit by the batter on a rope to the outfield🤔

Exit velo as FB velo   

This kid was throwing gasssssssssss