Hot Stove League heating up

Ruben Amaro has lost his mind! The Howard contract has been old news so i quit thinking about and just let it go. Ruiz is one i actually understand, he is real good with pitchers, is amazing blocking and they honestly have nothing in house to help them cheap.

 

Marlon Byrd - please - i think old Rub needs a drug test himself. for some reason Amaro is under the opinion that old players for big money are the way to win. in todays game (post PED) it has become obvious to anyone with an open mind that youth and farm system is the way to go. it is going to take 5 to 7 years for the Phils to make the needed changes. The first one obviously is letting Amaro go.

I like the Fielder-Kinsler trade for Detroit. It provides an upgrade at 2B a defensive upgrade at 1B, and a huge defensive upgrade at 3B. I'm high on Nick Castellanos, the organization's top prospect, and think he will hit his way into that lineup. This opens up a lot of options financially for the organization to fill some holes or to pay some of their top players who are nearing free agency.

 

I don't really understand the deal from Texas's perspective. Mike Napoli is pretty much as valuable as Prince Fielder and a fraction of the cost and years. There are plenty of other ways to work Jurickson Profar into the lineup without taking on what is effectively a 7 year/$138 million contract.

 

I love the Hudson deal for SF, I'm neutral on the Pence deal and I think Lincecum was an overpay.

 

I REALLY like San Diego's move to snag Josh Johnson and include a team option for '15. Betting on his upside could pay off in the end.

 

I think Cano ends up back in the Bronx. The only other team that I can conceivably see outbidding the Yankees is the Dodgers, and I don't think Cano is as valuable in LA as he is in NY. 

 

The two most intriguing free agents on the market, to me, are Masahiro Tanaka and Scott Kazmir. The two most "boring" are Bartolo Colon and Bronson Arroyo (i.e: you kind of know what to expect). The two I'd stay away from are Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz. The one who I think could make the most impact on a "win-now" team is Carlos Beltran.

 

I plead the fifth on Ruben Amaro Jr.

 

I've spent a lot of time looking at this year's crop of free agents, so I have a pretty good grasp of my opinions of just about everyone available. Love the topic.

Major league baseball is a joke. This witch hunt of Aroid  is an absolute joke and baseball has become the WWF. Selig the snake oil salesman has really screwed this up big time and needs to go, Not saying Aroid not a liar because everybody lies but how Roidtiz gets to stroll around like a hero when he's an admitted ped user is a joke.

I reach for a big Kleenex everytime Arod is interviewed by MLB Network about his situation.  It is really, really sad.  He was lying the previous two times about PEDs, but now he's not lying.  It is all very believable.

 

 

PS...His marketing and PR people need to get a sound track of violins playing in the background when Arod speaks publically.  That is a missed opportunity.

 

On another topic, I do like the TX/Detroit trade it helps both teams tremendously, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more trades like this.  Detroit gets a leadoff guy and legit 2nd baseman.  TX gets a serious middle of the lineup bat and they get to play Profar possibly at 2nd base.  It was well thought out between both teams and makes a lot of sense.

it is very easy to hate Ariod - as matter of fact i think every fan should. That being said MLB has made mess of this every step of the way. i don't care if he is guilty or not or if he ever plays again but the process is a joke. Bud Selig is obviously on a mission and he doesn't care how he gets there.

 

IMO Selig is and has been one of if not the biggest problems baseball has in the last 20 years. The man is a zero trying to become a 1 and somehow made his way to being the boss...what a country!!

My sentiments exactly old school. The whole thing is a mess in all sides.

Now as for Cano, only the Yanks will have a market for him and already set the price by claiming they will not pay 10y/$300M so we'll see. Personally, I'd take Pedroia any day over Cano because Pedroia plays like a winner but  since  Cano the best FA available and the Yankees most likely to meet his demands (although I think the Dodgers would be the other team willing to spend).  In the end, the Ysnks will get him for 8 yrs. I would give him 3 yrs tops and key him walk otherwise.

My sentiments exactly old school. The whole thing is a mess in all sides.

Now as for Cano, only the Yanks will have a market for him and already set the price by claiming they will not pay 10y/$300M so we'll see. Personally, I'd take Pedroia any day over Cano because Pedroia plays like a winner but  since  Cano the best FA available and the Yankees most likely to meet his demands (although I think the Dodgers would be the other team willing to spend).  In the end, the Ysnks will get him for 8 yrs. I would give him 3 yrs tops and key him walk otherwise.

Lots of chatter that Rangers are going to make a serious run at Cano now.  They have loads of cash to spend and even more coming in 2015(?) when tv deal renews.

 

Fielder is a huge upgrade over Moreland who has struggled at the plate and while easy to root for doesn't seem to be a long term solution.

I'll take your word for it, although the Rangers are a team that I haven't heard on Cano. It wouldn't make very much sense at all to be quite honest- they have an influx of infielders already and a few pretty good prospects coming up soon. That's an awfully big contract to take on when there's a possibility to fill that role for a lot less money, especially given the fact that they just took on such an additional contract yesterday.

 

My statement re: Fielder was not to imply that he isn't an improvement for the Rangers at 1B. But again, that's a lot of money for the improvement he'll provide.

As a Ranger fan, I'm still depressed over Game 5, 2 outs.............

 

Sad to see Kinsler go.

Me too LHP..Wonder if he saw what happened to Michael Young and didn't want to switch positions to make room for Profar.  No clue but could see that being an issue.

 

JH I agree.  I don't like these huge contracts much.  None of them seem to really work out at all.  The Angels are pretty much buried by contracts of two guys.

 

Those speculating Cano to Rangers put Profar on the move to someone for a corner OF where the Rangers have a need.

Backstop- Gotcha. If I were a Rangers fan, I'd rather see them go after Shin-Soo Choo instead of Cano (and then hypothetically flipping Profar). There aren't too many corner outfielders on team-friendly contracts who would be as valuable in a trade as Profar would be. The Rangers do have some horses in the minor leagues so who knows, perhaps a guy like Giancarlo Stanton could be an option. I'd rather play it "safe" and secure a less expensive asset in Choo and assuredly have young, cost-controlled MIF options than sign Cano and then hope to flip Profar. 

Just to add a couple logs to the HSBBWeb hot stove fire. 

 

I was travelling in Boston earlier this week on business.  Lots of jawing about signing Beltran.  I really like this for a couple reasons.   He'll be eager to sign with a decent, established team that has a chance of the post-season.  Check.  He's a very good outfielder with a gun for Fenway's right field.  Check.  Very good hitter from both sides.   Check.   He's an insurance policy if the Sox can't resign Napoli, and all indications are they aren't going out of their way to sign Ellsbury (Boras probably wants north of $200M for multi-multi year).  Check.  Slide speedy Victorino into CF.  Check.  The Sox don't have a lot of OF prospects except Jackie Bradley.   Check.   We'll see

 

My only reservation is Boston the city.  I've heard it is a baseball crazy town.   Is it a good fit for Beltran.   Not so sure about that.

When I saw the Fielder trade my first thoughts were Texas did Detroit a huge favor. The Tigers got out from under a horrible contract. Fielder wasn't producing. He should have 125+ rbi's this year. He's done nothing in the post season. Add on with his body he could be an early thirties redeux of Mo Vaughn. Long term contracts for bad bodies are extremely risky.

 

I disagree on Beltran. While he has a good arm he's no longer a good fielder. He can't handle Fenway's right field. This doesn't mean he won't be signed to play left.

 

If the Sox decide to go with Bradley in center I give it a 51% chance Ellsbury doesn't get the contract he wants and resigns with the Sox for five years for 90-100M. He wants to play for a winner. He's not going to the Mariners or Cubs unless 140M is involved.

 

Cano isn't getting 300M. He'll get seven years at 175M from the Yankees. And I agree. Amaro needs to be tested for PEDs for his signings.

 

Drew signs with the Yankees or Cardinals. The Fielder trade brought Napoli one step closer to resigning with the Sox. Saltalmacchia is gone unless he accepts a two year contract. I'm betting he gets three somewhere. In a shocker Bill James has Middlebrooks down for .270-30-100 for 2014.

 

In the big picture what a lame free agent year.

Beltran has stated he wants to stay in STL.  I heard he is worth his weight in gold as he is a great clubhouse guy. I just can't believe that STL would let him go.  Will be interesting to see how that pans out.

I am wondering if getting rid of PFielder will let Detroit sign FA Joe Nathan, Tori Hunter making a case for him.

Nick Castellanos will thrive under the new manager.

 

RJM,

 

You bring up a good point.  However, is Victorino in CF, Beltran (est $15-$30M / 2 years using my wild-ass guess numbers) in RF, and Nava/Gomes in LF a better value or situation (no long term contract)  for the money than Ellsbury in CF ($140M your number/many years), Victorino in RF, and Nava/Gomes in LF.  With the way the front office brilliantly maneuvered lots of short term contracts in 2013, I'm thinking they prefer to operate in that mode.  Remember the Crawford, Beckett, Gonzalez, etc $250M contracts they just got out of.  Ellsbury isn't young anymore (30yo).  The question is does the front office see Ellsbury as a core player to the Red Sox.  I think they do, but his price is too high and his years too many.  I think they let him walk until it is on their terms.

 

I still don't think Bradley is ready although I wish he was.  Bradley is not nearly as fast as Victorino, so I don't see him as a CF.  He has the arm for CF or RF @ Fenway.

 

Plus they need a catcher, SS, 1st baseman, and possibly another starter. 

The problem Beltran has is teams don't want to give him the three year contract he wants at his age.

Fenway... I'm giving it 51% Ellsbury doesn't get his big contract and returns for five year at 20M per year. This is predicated on the Sox not making a move beforehand that prevents his return. If they sign Beltran I see Nava moving to right and Victorino overing a lot of ground in both gaps.

I agree but I hope that he will stay in STL.

I would not be surprised if Atlanta catcher Bryon McCann ends up in Boston on a five to six year contract of around 100 to 110 million. They would have to pray he could catch for at least three of those years, then DH. The Yankees might be in play here too. I think there will be enough interest in McCann that he gets that fifth year for sure with maybe a sixth year team option. Probably overpaying but ML baseball is flush with cash(except for their draftees and minor leaguers that is).

The Sox won't overpay on a long term contract. They've learned their lesson. Hanigan's (Reds) name keeps popping up as a two year solution. Ross has another year. They expect one of two top catching prospects to step up in 2015 or 2016. One will be at AAA this year.

Threebagger - I hear what you are saying.   It must be very tempting for the Red Sox to see McCann on the market knowing they need a catcher.   He is a top player at his position (the most important position IMHO) and possibly could DH in a few years when Papi retires.  McCann's reputation is a club house leader but he is asking for a lot of money.  He is a pull hitter which Fenway will negate some of his value due to a deep RF.  I would be very surprised if they bring Salty back even on their terms.  Salty strikes out way too much.  We play a game at my house called "Salty strikeout".  I can predict a Salty strikeout with great accuracy....it is my gift.  Nobody but nobody, misses the ball with the bat by a greater distance than Salty.

 

I agree with RJM, I think they'll end up going for a short term solution at catcher until they can develop someone.   They hired Varitek as a coach last year (great move!) and hopefully they'll retain Tek to work with the younger catchers to get them ready.  I floated the idea of Tek as a player/coach many years ago, and I'm glad to see him involved in coaching now.

 

Truthfully, if I was the Red Sox I'd be most concerned with SS.   Drew is the answer IMHO, but they seem to want to save a few bucks.  I don't like it, but don't get a vote.

 

I see the Rangers making these huge moves, but what are your thoughts on Ron Washington managing this team going forward?  Is he the guy to make this happen on the field?  I'm not that confident.  

fenwaysouth,

 

I am not overly confident in Ron Washington's ability to bring a World Championship to Texas. I feel he is a very good player's manager and infield position teacher but he seems to be a poor  in-game manager who is exposed in the spotlight of the playoffs. Perhaps Prince Fielder will love playing for Washington and might find that fire again. I think Texas will be beneficial for Fielder anyway with his HRs climbing back up past 35 in that Texas heat with the wind blowing to right. He could have a monster year. But overall, I'm like you, not that confident in Washington to take this team that next step.

To me this is a great move for Fielder.  Detroit is a very tough park to be a HR hitter in, for everyone whose name isn't Miguel Cabrera.  Texas is a HR hitter's dream.  The move could rejuvenate Fielder. 

 

But I also agree that if he doesn't get his fat belly taken care of, he's got 3-4 more years of steady decline ahead of himself, followed by a career derailed by lower back and knee problems.  Frankly it's amazing how agile and speedy he is right now.  It just makes you wonder what kind of amazing athlete is being held back by that sack of potatoes he carries on his waist.  I would love to see what he could achieve if he would work on his push-aways all winter, get with a personal trainer and show up to spring training looking more like a professional athlete.  On the other hand, if he thinks that just because he's done OK so far he can continue carrying that weight, he's about to discover what it means to crest the hill that is the 30th birthday.  In the post-steroid era, we aren't seeing the 38-42 year olders still producing.  It's more like the old days where the decline for the big stars starts around 32 and guys are wrapping it up by 36.  Not being in top condition only accelerates that decline.

 

It's also a great move for Kinsler because he gets to go where he's wanted, where he'll play every day and where he can help a team win a pennant.  I believe he will produce and he may also help their defense, especially when, as noted above, you consider that this almost certainly means Miggy returns to 1B.

 

As for Boston -- I know and love Jackie Bradley, and I hope like heck he is on the cusp of a long and successful MLB career.  But losing a proven game changer like Ellsbury and relying on an unproven prospect to replace him is quite a gamble.  I guess Ellsbury has had a penchant for injuries and there's always the risk that you end up paying a ton for someone who spends a lot of time on the DL.  Maybe that's in their mind.  But there are so few true leadoff guys around right now that to me, giving one of the few great ones away is stupid.

 

As for Cano, it boils down to this.  There are, at most, 4 teams who even have the wherewithal to consider a contract of the magnitude he's considering.  And they are already living with the consequences of having made some of those commitments in the past already.  I have to believe at some point, the Yankees and others are going to start saying, "We love you, but if you think you can get that somewhere, Godspeed.  When you realize you can't, we'll be here to talk with real numbers."  I wouldn't mind paying Cano big money per year, but only for the next 4-5 years max.  Obligating yourself to a guy into his 40's in the post-steroid era is fiscal madness.

Fielder went through a tough year personally, off the field.  With a fresh start, in a hitters ballpark, with Washington as his coach, look out.  He'll have a very strong year.  Washington has struggled a little in game, but had no help from his bench coach...a old time Ryan guy who is now gone.  Wash will have a better year in game this year with more help from a bench coach pulling his weight.  On Kinsler's departure, Profar will step in an not miss a beat.  He's better defensively and on the basepath, and on par offensively...but Profar is improving and Kinsler declining.  So far, the Rangers have vastly improved their team.

Another trade just announced that I LOVE for the Cardinals as they acquire Gold Glove level center fielder Peter Bourjos for David Freese in a four player transaction. I have watched Bourjos closely for several years and he is the real deal as far as center fielders go. The St. Louis fans who are some of the fairest and most knowledgeable in baseball are going to be amazed at what this guy can do with his glove, helping an already impressive young pitching staff. I also feel in the NL he will be a .275-.285 hitter with some extra base pop similar to what he was a few years ago before injuries and the coming of Mike Trout limited his playing time. Look for him to steal 25-35 bags also. He is only 26 years old.

 

Trout, meanwhile moves back full time to his ultimate position Center Field where I feel he is poised to show us some seasons we will have to see to believe offensively.

 

Freese is an upgrade for the Angels and he was no longer a great fit in St.Louis with the emergance of Wong at second base as now Carpenter can be moved to third. If St. Louis finds an upgrade at shortstop, they are going to be some kind of great team. The question about Freese is whether he is healthy and can he get back to his 2012 form. I feel he can, but I still love this trade from St. Louis' perspective. The young pitcher Salas may help in the Angel's bullpen as they need all the help they can get and he comes with that excellent Cardinals training for pitchers.

I'm guessing the four teams who could afford a crazy contract are the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers. The Sox and Dodgers are set at second. The Yankees have told Cano to comeback when he gets real. Its why he's talking to the Mets. Unless the Mets are insane I predict the Yankees sign Cano for seven years at 175M.

I doubt the Mets have Cano in play since I heard they only have about $30 million to play with this off season and they just spent $7.5 million on Young. They would have to blow up their budget to get him.

Really disappointed in the huge contract awarded today by the cardinals to a player who sat 50 games for being involved in the latest scandal for PED use.    He gets rewarded and they want to end Arods career?
For those of you who have young players how do you explain this to them?

I don't get it.

The Mets said it was just a meeting. Said they won't be offering any nine figure contracts.

New moves, as the Yankees get the catcher they desparately needed (McCann) for around $85 million, and St. Louis signs Peralta to upgrade their shortstop position which had the weakest offensive player in baseball playing it this past season while not being enough of a glove to even begin to make up the difference. While I am not fond of the PED guys like Peralta, at least he served his suspension and hopefully won't be dumb enough to be a repeat offender.

Frustrating time of year for Orioles fans-when it comes to the Hot Stove League, the O's only shop in the Bargain Bin and the Scratched and Dented Items....  Are MLB food stamps available?

 

Not anymore, the Mets scooped them all up.  And I say that as a Mets fan.

O's fan here.  I'd rather they stay out of the HSL anyway.  Don't need over-the-hill, overpaid, passed-their-prime players - Sammy Sosa and Albert Belle come to mind.  They are steadily going back to "The Oriole Way" - bringing up young players through the farm system. 

Ouch.  Albert Belle?  I thought O's fans had purged that from all archives and streams of consciousness.  Are they still paying his contract?     

 

All kidding aside, I think the O's have everything to be competitive except top line pitching, and/or pitching depth.  Tillman is the only guy that really jumps out at me as a possible ace.    They've got some up and comers in the minors, and just hired new pitching coach Dave Wallace from the Braves minor league system.  Possibly, he'll inject the Braves way of pitching?   I think his first order of business is to work with (or tweak) Brian Matusz and Zach Britton.   I've always thought Matusz had good stuff, but never got the results.

 

If I'm the O's I'm looking for value at outfield, and a 2nd basemen.  Jones and Markakis are solid but they need another solid bat in the OF.   I do have defensive questions about Chris Davis at 1st, but I think if he keeps hitting there is no chance of pulling him against RHP.  We'll see if he was a flash in the pan player.  I just don't see them resigning Brian Roberts, but there don't seem like a market glut of 2nd basemen either.  So, they have to try someone there (Flaherty) or get a free agent.   It will be interesting.

The opportunity to win the second base job has been there for two years for Flaherty. Hopefully the third time is a charm if the O's don't find another solution. But at worst he's a valuable utility player (2b, 3b, lf, rf) with some power. He's lacked consistency when he gets playing time.

Flaherty-every time he plays my wife almost throws something at the TV. No stick at all . Nada.

"If St. Louis finds an upgrade at shortstop"

 

Not sure what the plan is for Jhonny Peralta (the king of players whose parents were apparently dyslexic).  I had assumed the job was Furcal's to lose once he finished rehabbing after TJ.

Furcal is a free agent.