How important is Pitching Velocity

Cav, your son is only 13.  Who's to say he won't eventually be a hard thrower?  Or will?  My son maybe threw 65 at 13.  70 at 14.  75 at 15.  80 at 16.  89 at 17.  Now can touch 92 and is in the minors.  BTW he's 5'10" in his shoes.

I would suggest the path Bum, Jr. followed:

1) Consistent long-toss year round

2) Good pitching instructor

And when he's about 15:

3) Plyometrics

4) Band work

5) Weights in offseason (light in season)

It's far too early to fear your son is lacking velocity.  In fact, it's probably good, so he isn't used too much and burns out his arm too early. 

Good luck.

If a HS pitcher can command the fastball and change up, he'll be successful no mater how hard it is.

I've seen guys sitting at 92 get rocked and guys sitting at 77 dominate.

Location, Movement, Location are keys

In h.s.?  Really JMoff?  Bum, Jr. is a LHP.  His change was not good in h.s., but he had a dandy curve and a great fastball.  92 rocked in h.s.?  No way, don't buy it.  Bum, Jr. creamed through h.s. hitters with his two pitches. 

Work on velocity velocity velocity in h.s.  Location will come.

your son has plenty of time.................. as Bum said velo may or may not come but you can have a plan on how to keep his harm healthy and strengthin it up he can improve whether at 2b or P.  Eric Cressey has a site chalked full of good information

Your son sounds a lot like mine.  He is a 2017 as well. So you feel better, here is his tale:

He did some lessons (mainly catching but some pitching) at a local academy last year. The owner of the academy is the head coach at my son's high school. He invited my son to a winter break camp he was holding with his JV and varsity players. While at the camp he suggested my son try out for a 14U summer team that was being formed by one of the local showcase programs. He tried out for that team and made it. The pitching coach (who coaches on the college level), complimented him on his ability to spot his fastball and curve.

Over the summer he played in some of the large national tournaments and pitched very well. He made an all tournament team, never gave up more than 1 run in a game, and averaged more than a strikeout an inning. While this was against 14U players, it was against the best 14U players in the country - Team Rawlings, Dallas Tigers, etc.

Last month he made his school's JV team.  In a couple of games he has given up 3 hits total, no earned runs, and is still averaging more than a strikeout an inning. Whispers are that if he continues this way, he will be getting some varsity time in the spring.

Did I mention he is about 5'8 and might hit 73 on the gun?

It's not all about velocity.  At a certain point velocity becomes more important, but when you are talking about kids that are still growing, it is less of a concern than having good control and the ability to change speeds. It's important to know how to pitch, not just how to throw. You have to make the most of the physical tools you currently have, and not worry about having the same velocity as others.

Have your son maximize working on doing what he does best. If he is a control guy, have him work on being the best control guy at try outs. It's hard to find a freshman that is able to locate his pitches - have him be the pitcher that can.

Overall, just worry about the things that he can control, not what about others can do. 

How important is velocity? At 13, not very important. At 17? It means everything.

While 80 mph high school pitchers may find some success with good off speed stuff, most college programs are looking for velocity first and everything else second.

I would not pay for a pitching instructor to tell me that velocity is not important. Find someone else.

It depends on what you are looking for.  In High School Velo might not matter much, but Showcasing for Colleges it definitely matters. my son, 2015 LHP, sits 81 - 83, and he has been told that he needs to be 3 - 5 mph faster to be a legit D-1 prospect.

And that is the point.  On a typical HS team, you may have 1-3 truly hard throwers - guys that can play at the next level.  So you probably can compete in HS with good locations.  But on a showcase team full of D1 prospects, you'll probably see a whole staff of hard throwers.  They have the luxury of picking players without boundaries. 

Kind of unusual but I somewhat agree with every post in this thread. I especially agree with "SultanofSwat"

I have seen many soft tossing pitchers make very good hitters look bad.  It's likely that any pitcher that can change speeds and throw strikes will have some success in high school.  The problem is that success isn't likely to translate to the higher levels without improving velocity.

So what do you call these types?

77mph dominate in HS? HIGH SCHOOL PITCHER

92mph getting rocked? PROSPECT!

PG,

As a curiosity, because you certainly see more HS pitchers than anyone else around...

What do you estimate is the typical progression with velocity in HS pitchers? Are there more early peakers or late bloomers? Also, how does that progression affect ratings?

In other words if you see a soph at 6'2 hitting 85 and he gets a high rating, then Jr year he's still 6'2 hitting 85 would his rating take a hit?  I guess my question is, do you expect to see a certain progression and then drop ratings if that projection doesn't hold up?

Rob T,

Our tech guys did a real neat feature that may or may not be available on our website.  I will check and see.  Anyway it shows results from year to year (progression) on the average among all pitchers we have recorded.  It also shows the same thing in other areas, like 60 yards, pop times, etc.  another cool thing is it categorizes by different things like "1st round draft picks" DI, etc.

i know they have it nearly finished if not up already.  If memory serves me correct, it looked like around 3 mph each year for those that end up at the higher levels.

also, each time a player is graded it is based on what we see and project at that time. There can be reasons why a sophomore pitcher hasn't gained velocity in his junior year. But typically, no gain would create a lower projection score. There really is many things to consider. 85 with nice smooth arm action is normally graded much higher than jerky 85.  Some gain velocity consistently, others stay the same for a year Orr two and then have a big jump.  So the averages don't really help when you are dealing with one pitcher. Bottom line, when we see 80 or 85 or 90, we are grading on what we think the potential is. I have seen younger players throwing 78 that appear to have more potential than another young kid throwing 85. Not always, but usually we are right about that.

I should know by now, but it still amazes me that we return to this "velocity vs. location" argument over and over again.

The truth is this:  Pursuing higher-level opportunities means entering a very stiff competition for a limited number of slots.  If you are deficient in any one critical component of the entire package, you will ultimately lose out.

It's not "either-or".  It's both.  And you also need some smarts, a deeply competitive spirit, and the grit and determination to push through injuries and rehabs and all the other setbacks you will inevitably have your turn facing along the way.

Imagine if you were hiring a secretary and an applicant said, "I can type but I'm not so good at filing."  Another one said, "I love filing but I hate typing."  A third one said, "I have always strived to meet all requirements and I will do everything you need done."  You only have one job to offer.  Who do you think gets it?

My assertion is a simple one.  If you don't have enough Velo, you won't have an opportunity.  If you do, someone will take a chance on you. Nice to have both, but not necessary to be a legit prospect.  

Many of heard me say this but I'll say it again anyway because it's important:

Velocity is not the show.  It is the ticket to the show.

Don’t kid yourself if you think that velocity and movement/control/mix are of equal importance.  Velocity is the ONLY thing for a pitcher (within reason I guess – if you hit every batter in the head that could be a problem) and 88 is the magic number. 

I have a 2015 RHP.  6’ 1” 185 - 84 tops, that is his legit velocity, not “dad velocity”, with great sink and control.  He plays on a very good showcase team that played at several D1 schools this summer in front of a bunch of recruiters and scouts.  So far he has zero interest from the big schools.  I know 4 other 2015 RHP’s, one from his team, that hit 88+ this summer - not cruise there (maybe cruise at 85+) – but hit it at least once.  They had recruiters all over them – I mean gave them tours of their facilities, tell them to come for a visit, fill out this form, etc.  My son is a much better pitcher than all four of these guys from a control, poise, and pitch mix perspective.  But he’s not hitting the number – yet.

Hopefully I don’t sound bitter about it, because I am not at all.  Being a finance person I like having an objective goal.  Position player evaluations are much more subjective, except for the 60.  He knows if he hits his velocity goal, he will get attention from the big schools, if he doesn’t, he won’t – simple.  100% of his focus now is to do whatever it takes to throw harder.  He’s working hard to get there.  His goal is to be there by next summer.  I think he’ll make it.

That actually sounds really interesting to look through.  I'll keep an eye out for it.

As for the discussion at hand - I think people are forgetting that the original poster is talking about making a HS freshman team.

Does velocity matter? Of course it does.  However there is no point in stressing over it at this age.  Either he will get bigger and gain velocity, or he won't.  All he needs to worry about is being the best he can be at this point.

He's not asking why his son isn't being recruited by Div 1 schools, he's not asking why his son isn't getting attention from pro scouts. He's asking if his son has a chance at making his HS freshman team.

Anyone care to step up and say no?

Not a chance!  I remember going round and round on this with MidloDad many years ago because I had not seen the light...yet.   But he showed me, and I now understand.  It is all about 1) Velocity, 2) Location and 3) Movement for high schoolers and college prospects.  When you master that fastball, you add pitches.  The fastball is the foundation for any successful pitcher (except knuckleballers)..

Just went through this.   2014 RHP had a very productive summer.....he is 84-86mph with a great curveball and a solid changeup.  That got him a lot of "we really like him.....but need to see him at camp" from many D1's.

Look for the coaches that are looking at his age, body build, arm speed......the coaches that are projecting where your son will throw in 18-24 months.   Had 2 great D2's and 1 great JUCO tell son that they will have him around 88-90mph before his Freshman season begins.  Find some of those coaches, and you will be in business.

Because, yes, at the D1 level it is all about how hard you throw now.

JB

This. 

As a 2017 he has time to gain velo.  If your goal is HS velo's not everything.  If its D1 or pro velo is all that matters till you get over 90 then stuff is what separates the crowd of folks in the same velo range.  My son (2014) was 83ish freshman, 86ish soph, touched 90 summer after junior year (perfect game speed not dad speed)and touched 92 two weeks ago in the start of senior year.  I have seen kids have bigger jumps and kids that peek early and stop progressing, so it's hard to say where he will be, hard work and god given ability will determine that.  My advise keep up the lessons, long toss, work hard and have fun.

Ticket prices (based on signees we saw last year)

MLB - 93+ max

Name brand D1 - 91+ max

Other D1s - 88-90 max

Others 85+ max

YMMV - and lefties can deduct 1 or 2

Really? "YMMV," indeed.

I know a right-handed pitcher who cruised at 87 as a Friday starter for a Top 10 D1 in the ACC. Pitched very successfully in two College World Series and was a Cape League All Star.His final won-loss record as a collegian: 34-5.

Fastball velocity is important, but there's a lot more to it than simplistic charts. Avoid cookie-cutter formulae on this topic. 

Go out and compete against the highest level competition you can. If you consistently get batters out at highly competitive levels, people will take notice and want you to do it for them.

There will always be exceptions to the rules, and no one is speaking in absolutes here. Programs will occasionally make exceptions for projectability and "project" prospects. I find Sultan's guidelines to be very close to what I've seen in my son's 2014 class.

Personally, to some extent, I put velocity right behind height as one of the things you can't control.  Ok, a kid can learn better mechanics, do gym/band work and squeeze some more mph out of his arm, but it's not likely that the average player is going to throw 95 because you want him to.

I have a friend whose son is a pitcher.  He's 5'8", wife is 5'1".  He's banking on his son being 6'3"-6'4".  I've told him, unless the mailman or milkman is very tall, don't count on it.  

When people start describing their charts as "tickets to ride," that sounds more like an absolute than a guideline; and the ones who are most liable to interpret it as such are those who are just starting down the path. Instead of carrying around numbers in their heads that they saw on this website, they should be concentrating on the many elements that lead to higher velocity; recognizing that there will be physiological limits at play.

It needs to be understood that velocity is important and developing pitchers need to work to develop all of it that they can. They also need to understand that if they don't/can't develop it, their compensating skills are going to have to be very well developed to overcome the deficiency. However,there are way too many exceptions to the numbers on charts like that one that a young pitcher should look at it and reason that certain levels are unattainable to him...because they're not.

Funny thing....I read about all these kids throwing 90+ in high school / travel ball, etc.

Why is it that when I watch college games on TV.....and I watch a ton of them.....I don't see many kids throwing in the 90's ???  And, I'm watching the ACC, SEC, etc.

JB

Pro scouts and college recruiters like MPH because there is often a feeling that whether you have it or don't is largely genetic and cannot always be taught.  So they look at who has that and then they see if he either already has the other facets of a top pitcher, or if he's "coachable" to where those could be developed.  So in the end, again, you have to have all the facets.

It's also the case that a guy who can "touch" 90-92 might "sit" at 87.  That is a not-unusual differential between when a guy is just trying to show what's in his tank vs. when he's trading off for movement (often a 4-seamer vs. 2-seamer thing) and forgoing max effort for a smoother delivery that may be more conducive to locating as well.  Virtually everyone you see throwing 93 in MLB is actually a guy who has, at one time or another, touched 97-98, then backed off that to maintain MLB-level velocity while doing the other things needed for success. 

I have some idea who Prepster is talking about above :-) and I'm going to guess that he showed the capability to throw in the 90-92 range but found that he was more successful "sitting" at 87 -- though even then he probably touched 89-90 in games when he felt the need. 

Contrast that to the kid who touches 87.  Yes, you can be successful at high D1 at 87, but if you only peak at 87, then you likely sit at 83-84, and the typical righty sitting there is apt to get lit up.

I would also add that I don't really agree with the idea that velocity cannot be taught.  Many pitchers can improve conditioning and mechanics to gain velocity, so to some extent, when you see a lower velo guy getting recruited, it's because someone thinks they have a diamond in the rough that they can develop.

I have a friend whose son is a pitcher.  He's 5'8", wife is 5'1".  He's banking on his son being 6'3"-6'4".  I've told him, unless the mailman or milkman is very tall, don't count on it.

When my son was ten he wanted to grow up to play in the NBA. I apologized and told him he was going to grow up to be a 6'2" white kid.

Ha ha ha.  Exactly.  

Earlier I wrote a very long opinion regarding this subject. I wrote it, reread it and was extremely proud of myself. I though it was the greatest post I have ever done.

After patting myself on the back I eagerly hit submit reply, thinking I could sit back and see what everyone thought.  However it never got posted and now it is gone forever.  No way am I capable of recreating that masterpiece.

I only remember the final line which stated... Satisfaction is a baseball players worst enemy!

I have no idea what happened to my post. Heck, maybe it wasn't all that great, but I used up some of the very few brain cells that are still working on that post.

Anyway, I could give many reasons as to why velocity is very important. That doesn't mean all the other things are not important. EVERYTHING is IMPORTANT!

Anybody can throw as hard as they can. The trick is to be able to throw it where you want it when you want it. Think Greg Maddux.

We had two kids (brothers) each threw 92 (or 93-94 on occasion) for our HS. Each had an ERA north of 11 in HS. I saw the scouts show up and leave after three batters, so I know what they threw.

When you throw BB-S (hit for HR), BBBB, BBBB, BBBB, BBB-HR, etc you give up a lot of runs. Were all of the strikes 92? probably not. They did throw hard though.

Location, location, location.... 

Midlo, you clarifed the point I didn't make clearly in my earlier post. We had two brothers who could light up the gun at 90-92 (I even saw a few 93's and 94's). They both showed the ball early, which took 5 mph off their effectivenes, threw the ball flat and couldn't locate. When they HAD to throw a strike it was probably low to high 80's, but if you're a HS player trying to gear up for 92 and the kid throws a meatball at 86-88 to get it over, the tape measure comes out.

Usually the scounts stopped holding up the radar gun after the 8-15 straight balls that preceeded their HR pitch.

This is a recurring theme.  Velocity vs. control.  The fact is, there is a direct, positive correlation between velocity and control.  To throw with velocity implies impeccable mechanics.  The same mechanics that get strikes.

The truth is, develop velocity and by it's very nature control (and command) will follow.

Was funny...Friday night as me and my son were watching one of the playoff games (very odd, he was actually home from school just hanging out...rare moment!) we were talking about his pitches, how they were working, his 2-seam vs 4-seam and velo...when the color guy (some former Major League pitcher) said as though he was in our conversation, "Why do you want to throw it so damned hard. Throw it where you're supposed to." We got a good chuckle about that. Son is a redshirt freshman, actually learning to pitch and that he doesn't have to hit 95 every time he throws it (he can).