Very Interesting articles that
Impact to College Baseball
https://www.baseballamerica.co...ct-college-baseball/
Impact to High School Baseball
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Minor leagues changing too.
Jason Rylick posted:Minor leagues changing too.
Agreed. The pool is smaller. most people on this forum talk College and High School.
CollegebaseballInsights posted:Jason Rylick posted:Minor leagues changing too.
Agreed. The pool is smaller. most people on this forum talk College and High School.
"Most of the people on this forum talk College and High School", but the draft includes those players: high school and college. If MLB reduces the rounds to 20 (as stated as a possibility), that reduces the number of players drafted by HALF. HALF! I remember when there were 50 rounds and my guy was just hoping to be drafted out of HS in the 50th round one day......(they reduced it to 40 before keewartson graduated from HS, and it wasn't a real possibility anyway)
It will definitely dash 21st-40th round player's hopes and dreams.
I wonder how/if the change will impact the foreign draft and unsigned free agents, or will that pool just be bigger?
The initial proposal is for MLB to sponsor an Indy League for players who would have been drafted in the 20’s.
Like the reduction of the other pro league’s drafts it would allow more marginal players to be free agents and pick an organization they would be more likely to advance.
Does anyone know when the proposed changes are geared to take place?
They’re only proposed, not negotiated.
keewart posted:CollegebaseballInsights posted:Jason Rylick posted:Minor leagues changing too.
Agreed. The pool is smaller. most people on this forum talk College and High School.
"Most of the people on this forum talk College and High School", but the draft includes those players: high school and college. If MLB reduces the rounds to 20 (as stated as a possibility), that reduces the number of players drafted by HALF. HALF! I remember when there were 50 rounds and my guy was just hoping to be drafted out of HS in the 50th round one day......(they reduced it to 40 before keewartson graduated from HS, and it wasn't a real possibility anyway)
It will definitely dash 21st-40th round player's hopes and dreams.
I wonder how/if the change will impact the foreign draft and unsigned free agents, or will that pool just be bigger?
This is why I am also not a fan of increased salaries, as that will have a further impact on players, and could trickle down to the college and summer ball level, where you'll see more mid-majors drop their programs and a reduction of summer leagues. Not to mention the small downs that support the MiLB teams, summer teams, etc.
But for many, maybe it's better you not get drafted in round 30 and get a start on your other career. But it stinks kids will lose that opportunity. I'm sure there are countless examples of kids drafted in round 20+, who maybe never got a shot at the big leagues, but made careers in baseball, either coaching, instructing, etc.
CTbballDad posted:keewart posted:CollegebaseballInsights posted:Jason Rylick posted:Minor leagues changing too.
Agreed. The pool is smaller. most people on this forum talk College and High School.
"Most of the people on this forum talk College and High School", but the draft includes those players: high school and college. If MLB reduces the rounds to 20 (as stated as a possibility), that reduces the number of players drafted by HALF. HALF! I remember when there were 50 rounds and my guy was just hoping to be drafted out of HS in the 50th round one day......(they reduced it to 40 before keewartson graduated from HS, and it wasn't a real possibility anyway)
It will definitely dash 21st-40th round player's hopes and dreams.
I wonder how/if the change will impact the foreign draft and unsigned free agents, or will that pool just be bigger?
This is why I am also not a fan of increased salaries, as that will have a further impact on players, and could trickle down to the college and summer ball level, where you'll see more mid-majors drop their programs and a reduction of summer leagues. Not to mention the small downs that support the MiLB teams, summer teams, etc.
But for many, maybe it's better you not get drafted in round 30 and get a start on your other career. But it stinks kids will lose that opportunity. I'm sure there are countless examples of kids drafted in round 20+, who maybe never got a shot at the big leagues, but made careers in baseball, either coaching, instructing, etc.
Please see attached for all drafts and bonus signing.
I will need to reconcile some of the data.
There were 23 players drafted in rounds 30 - 40 that received signing bonus of 100k or better.
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RJM posted:The initial proposal is for MLB to sponsor an Indy League for players who would have been drafted in the 20’s.
Like the reduction of the other pro league’s drafts it would allow more marginal players to be free agents and pick an organization they would be more likely to advance.
I also see the reduction to 20 rounds as a big plus for kids who want to pursue pro baseball.
Any idea why some guys get well below slot levels? For instance the spreadsheet shows a 5th round pick going to the White Sox (From BC) and his sign on was only $10k. That's nuts! A HS kid 4 picks before him got $1m and the HS kid immediately after got $1.5m. I understand why they may have to pay HS kids well above slot. However i don't understand the $10k's....There are quite a few players who singed for $10k or $20k in rounds 5-7. Any thoughts?
College seniors. These are the guys who, if drafted as juniors, would have been in similar rounds, but now as seniors have zero negotiating leverage. So the club gets a guy it's high on, without paying.
Gunner Mack Jr. posted:Any idea why some guys get well below slot levels? For instance the spreadsheet shows a 5th round pick going to the White Sox (From BC) and his sign on was only $10k. That's nuts! A HS kid 4 picks before him got $1m and the HS kid immediately after got $1.5m. I understand why they may have to pay HS kids well above slot. However i don't understand the $10k's....There are quite a few players who singed for $10k or $20k in rounds 5-7. Any thoughts?
Guys that normally would have been drafted much later, but the team really likes. They get the later round money (senior sign money) and the club opens up 100's of thousands in cash to sign other players with
Go44dad posted:RJM posted:The initial proposal is for MLB to sponsor an Indy League for players who would have been drafted in the 20’s.
Like the reduction of the other pro league’s drafts it would allow more marginal players to be free agents and pick an organization they would be more likely to advance.
I also see the reduction to 20 rounds as a big plus for kids who want to pursue pro baseball.
Why would a limit of 20 rounds be a good thing? Less rounds means less leverage.
CollegebaseballInsights posted:CTbballDad posted:keewart posted:CollegebaseballInsights posted:Jason Rylick posted:Minor leagues changing too.
Agreed. The pool is smaller. most people on this forum talk College and High School.
"Most of the people on this forum talk College and High School", but the draft includes those players: high school and college. If MLB reduces the rounds to 20 (as stated as a possibility), that reduces the number of players drafted by HALF. HALF! I remember when there were 50 rounds and my guy was just hoping to be drafted out of HS in the 50th round one day......(they reduced it to 40 before keewartson graduated from HS, and it wasn't a real possibility anyway)
It will definitely dash 21st-40th round player's hopes and dreams.
I wonder how/if the change will impact the foreign draft and unsigned free agents, or will that pool just be bigger?
This is why I am also not a fan of increased salaries, as that will have a further impact on players, and could trickle down to the college and summer ball level, where you'll see more mid-majors drop their programs and a reduction of summer leagues. Not to mention the small downs that support the MiLB teams, summer teams, etc.
But for many, maybe it's better you not get drafted in round 30 and get a start on your other career. But it stinks kids will lose that opportunity. I'm sure there are countless examples of kids drafted in round 20+, who maybe never got a shot at the big leagues, but made careers in baseball, either coaching, instructing, etc.
Please see attached for all drafts and bonus signing.
I will need to reconcile some of the data.
There were 23 players drafted in rounds 30 - 40 that received signing bonus of 100k or better.
Players signed for reasonable bonuses after round ten (when slot money ends) are typically players convinced to sign rather than head for college.
The was a poster on here a few years ago with a kid adamant he was headed for UNC. He was drafted in the 20th round as a nothing to lose by a MLB franchise. A million dollars changed his mind about heading for college.
This move used to be common in the draft. It’s why MLB created slot money and a signing pool limit for each team.
CollegebaseballInsights posted:Go44dad posted:RJM posted:The initial proposal is for MLB to sponsor an Indy League for players who would have been drafted in the 20’s.
Like the reduction of the other pro league’s drafts it would allow more marginal players to be free agents and pick an organization they would be more likely to advance.
I also see the reduction to 20 rounds as a big plus for kids who want to pursue pro baseball.
Why would a limit of 20 rounds be a good thing? Less rounds means less leverage.
Who has leverage past the first 5 rounds anyway?
Sure there are some later round money picks but they would simply move up and replace one of the college seniors, wouldn't they?
CollegebaseballInsights posted:Go44dad posted:RJM posted:The initial proposal is for MLB to sponsor an Indy League for players who would have been drafted in the 20’s.
Like the reduction of the other pro league’s drafts it would allow more marginal players to be free agents and pick an organization they would be more likely to advance.
I also see the reduction to 20 rounds as a big plus for kids who want to pursue pro baseball.
Why would a limit of 20 rounds be a good thing? Less rounds means less leverage.
What leverage does a long shot have? Slot money only extends to the 10th round. It’s because 84% of American MLBers come from the first ten rounds. Another 10% come from 11-20. Under the current system 94% come from the first twenty rounds. Anyone else is already a long shot.
It’s not thirty to fifty years ago where prospects went undetected. The reason 94% come from the first twenty rounds is MLB scouting is getting it right. The other 6% are probably physical late bloomers. MLB wants to create an Indy league for the fringe prospects. I’m guessing this league would be well scouted.
Why MLB doesn’t need rounds 21-40 ...
I did a quick review of the 2018 Red Sox roster since I already knew the answer for a majority of the players. Only two relevant American players including bench and bullpen were drafted after the sixth round. The team is loaded with first and second round picks.
Hembree (college) and Betts (high school) were taken in the 6th round. Betts was signed for significantly more than slot money to skip college. Pearce was taken in the 8th round after senior year of college. Eovaldi was selected in 11th round and convinced to skip college for a big signing bonus.
Nothing will change if MLB reduces the number of draft rounds. The same criteria will still be used: does a player have a projectable MLB tool.
You need to look no further than the NFL or NBA which have also reduced their drafts. Both these leagues simply sign, as Free Agents, all the players needed who meet their respective criteria.
Teams with better scouts will sign better free agents. (As it is, teams sign approximately 35 draftees plus a significant number of FA.)
Mike Ford was a FA signee. He hit double digit HRs this year for the Yankees.
Virtually every single DESERVING baseball player worldwide is found.
MiLB Cities with sub-par stadiums are probably toast.
The new proposed system will provide MILB players with far better and more consistent instruction (which leads to more rapid improvement), better facilities, access to better athletic trainers, better nutrition, etc.
"The new proposed system will provide MILB players with far better and more consistent instruction (which leads to more rapid improvement), better facilities, access to better athletic trainers, better nutrition, etc."
Not sure I understand the comment. Better facilities are not suddenly going to appear for those teams that survive this weeding out. Yes, the bad franchises with bad stadiums will go bye-bye, but the survivors are then set with what they have already. And the top levels of the minors already have the focus on instruction, nutrition, etc. Why will eliminating low A and Rookie ball change that?
What will also happen is MLB will continue to lose fans, the ones in the small towns who came out to see Mike Trout when he first started and now follow him with the Angels. Those towns that no longer have MLB affiliations will lose interest in the sport--just as St.Louis and San Diego have less NFL fans now than they did three years ago. Over time that becomes significant. Maybe MLB doesn't care since small town fans are not producing much revenue in ticket sales, but they do watch TV and the playoffs and World Series.
Summer night baseball in these towns is affordable entertainment for most of the residents who will no longer have that or any connection with any particular MLB franchise. They are gone as baseball fans, but maybe MLB has done the math and said good riddance.
By concentrating the lowest levels of MILB at the spring training complex.
At this complex are better workout facilities (now the players need to head to a standard fitness facility AND pay for it), effective physical instructors (you are on your own now), better trainers (now there are one per team), better nutrition (now it's all you can eat for 25$), more coaches and more specialized coaches, better consistency across the coaches (now PC at one team doesn't really need to be in harmony with all org PCs), easier evaluations by management (now it's one day here, the next at the next MILB level), less travel (which simply sops energy and provides no returns), better tools for improvement (e.g., track man, K-vest, etc.) (For example, bull pens currently are traditional - throw in front of your PC. In the complex, the BP will not only have a PC, but also all the tech.)
All these combine for a more efficient and quicker evaluation of players. (What takes 5 years now, will be less.)
I agree that the fan base will suffer; the lowest Milb level will be unseen by fans. (We spent 6 summers chasing MILB all over the country; went to a few complex games, but they weren't nearly as fun as a hundred MILB stadiums where I could watch my kids do those crazy between innings events!)
With summer events looking very unlikely, teams are going to have to draft on limited data. Video of College games are much more available than HS games or even last year's summer events . It will be much easier to feel confident with a college pick than a HS guy.
A combine/private workout would help, but the window for travel isn't open and the clock is ticking probably won't be able to get much analysis done in time. Few high schoolers should get drafted in five rounds. Don't know about free agents. $20K won't last long on a MILB salary
