HS Stats - "Don't Mean Anything"

Not sure if you saw the thread about Coaches want to win.  They do.  I have seen at least 100 coaches in action and never saw one of them that was trying to tank.

 

I think that every year most teams have 3/4 everyday no brainers and maybe the top pitcher or two.  After that there is a collection of players that play certain positions and are similar in a number of ways.  As you clearly articulate the coach gets to make the decision. 

 

Some will value stats more than others but I do believe that for the most part they trust what they see in practice and the execution in games.  So here's some non stats stuff that factors in:

 

1)  Consistent hard contact will trump a few well placed flares that fall or outrunning a few grounders that might get caught by a typical varsity player in your area. 

2)  Perhaps the coach leans toward power and is willing to accept a lower OBP to get it.  If you son is the 5'9" 150LB LF that has to hit it as hard as he can to reach the gap is up against a player 4" and 30lbs bigger that can pop a few over he might get aced.

3)  Plays the same position as the schools best player

4)  Player might rub coach the wrong way and coach believes he gets to the same place without him in the lineup. 

5)  Coaches could be wrong - it happens

 

If your son is bashing the ball, is athletic, has good size and is being buried on the JV it is a set of circumstances that really don't add up.  There are so few kids that can actually hit in HS that if he can I have never seen a coach that won't play him - no matter how much the kid might rub him wrong short of being a total malcontent.

 

Guys like Ironhorse is why I left here.  He's an ASS.  I was just making a point about stats.  People come here and ask questions and then keep getting hammered on when its not really the point.  I have pretty thick skin and can take it but if you don't have any thing constructive to say on the topic SHUT UP.  And 2020Dad our HS team doesn't have anyone that comes even in the ball park of 90mph pitching.  We have 1 player that can throw in the very low 80s and he is the absolute stud in the area.  And for the 60 times we have 2 or 3 that are in the 6.9-7.1 area.  After watching the season unfold I am glad he is at JV he is having fun and that is the way it should be.  But back the the original topic.  Colleges want the stats but really they don't matter and as far as HS coaches yeah they want to will and want to win the way they were taught ie power, speed, contact, small ball.  And if you don't fit that mold no playing time.  Just cold hard facts  

Pretty emphatic take, and nothing can be that black or white.  As someone said earlier, they must matter, or why would every team take them?  Do all coaches hold them with the same regard?  Of course not.  Could your son be getting the shaft?  Absolutely! But it doesn't mean all coaches are shafting their players...

       
       
Just to clarify my 90+ was exit velocity not pitch velocity.  And perhaps even 85+ for high school would be ok.  But the point of knowing these numbers is to realize that if they are too far off pace the kid is not going to compete against better competition.  And they are constant and comparable.  My son can take swings off a tee with a bbcor here and your son can do the same there (with reliable radar like a stalker) and we would have a fair comparison.  Unlike stats.  Your son may he hitting .450 and mine .350.  What does it mean?  Nothing without a whole lot of other information!

Agreed. He's the worst!

Exit vel?  ball leaving the bat??  From what I have seen it bat vel that is measured from what I have seen even at the camps.  The numbers that matter is speed, throwing speed, and bat speed.  Also helps if you are 6'4" and 220 and can run a 6.7 60 and throw on flat ground 90+.  Those players are far and few between and around here they would be playing Football 

 

Originally Posted by NYdad2017:

…Now we can debate the validity of how to score this (Stats would know best), but trust me, accuracy was not the scorer's intent.

 

No matter whether accuracy was the intent or not, the scorer certainly got that one right.

 

OBR 10.05(b) The official scorer shall not credit a base hit when a:

(1) runner is forced out by a batted ball, or would have been forced out except for a fielding error;…

       
       
No its exit velocity that is measured.   Bat speed is also measured if they have the technology to do so.  But exit velocity is much easier to measure.  And assuming the kid can square one up off the tee (if he can't we need to have a different conversation) it is a direct result of bat speed and to a much much smaller extent the mass of the bat he is strong enough to swing.  And college coaches are very interested in this along with all the other things.  They are all pieces to a puzzle but hs stats are probably the smallest piece.  And as PG pointed out earlier its bad stats that may actually matter not good stats.  If a kid has all the measurables but still hits .187 in hs it raises some alarms.  As an old coach who would like to think I do a good job of changing with the times and accepting new technology I am very frustrated by parents or other coaches who want to live in the past.  When I started coaching the only people with radar guns were pro scouts and maybe the best of the best college programs.  Laser timed 60's?   Not so much.  Pop times?  I suppose they were doing it at the upper levels but would have been only the cutting edge high school programs doing it.  Video?  Didn't use it.  The VHS wasn't exactly running at 1000fps!  But now we have all these things to take the opinion out of it and introduce facts!  And yet whenever I pose the question to a poster who is frustrated by his son's lot on his team; what is your son's exit velo?  Or pitch velo?  Etc.  Almost never get an answer.  Strange...

When my son was on JV as a freshman here was a mother who spent many games telling us how good her son was and he was getting screwed. When he played she whined he batted 7th. She kept telling us he had the highest batting average on the team (wasn't true). The kid did have a .350+ batting average. What the mother failed to notice was her kid only played against weak pitching. He also had a horrible attitude. He thought he was more talented and smarter than everyone. My son eventually decided the kid's brain had moved too far forward and drove it to the back of his skull. It's the only fight I'm aware of involving my molded mannered son. It was more of a punishment than a fight.

 

When end this kid was growing up his father coached him, kept the scorebook and e stats. The lineup was based on highest batting average from the top. Guess which kid led off every game from age seven seven through 14u. Other parents whose kids played for the dad said if the kid got on it was a hit every time.

 

Of course, in middle school and high school the coaches were idiots for making their son a second stringer. Amazing, the kid turned into a stud junior year of high school. He went on to play D1. I think it was not playing for his dad and being pushed hard rare than being told how good he was and was getting screwed. He even became a decent kid. My son became friends with him after once punching his lights out.

And in this corner, in the white keyboard, weighing in at three ounces ... And in this corner, in the black keyboard, also weighing in at three ounces ... Gentlemen ( and I use that term loosely ) shake keyboards and come out keystroking. 

       
       
Lol.  Good one.  Somewhere between rounds though can we get some hard numbers!

2020 I know the bat speed and 60 time and throwing velo pitching and fielding so I am very aware.  His numbers were awful his freshman year but now I would so they are not too bad.  75 bat speed low to mid 70's throwing and 7.2-7.4 on the 60.  For his team top 10 on the all three.  He had a huge jump from between freshman year to now of about 15-18 mph on throwing.  He grew and changed the way he threw.  He knows where he needs to be to have a chance to play in college and he knows hes not there yet.  Low 80s bat speed upper 70's low 80's throwing and 7.0 on the 60 if he can get there he has a chance at a small school and I said a chance.  And I agree Moms especially think they know what a kid throws and hits and runs but usually you take off 5-10 for throwing speed and about .200 for batting average

Are you going to call it the "Iron" bowl?"

Sound good to be put notice I call Ironhorse and ASS too funny pun not intended but work out nicely.  I just can't believe that he brought that up.  From my limited experience its not about the stats.  Its all about what the coach is looking for and/or who you are and I have proof on that one as well.  For example at a high school close to where I live daddy basically paid for his son to start on the basketball team even though he should have been cut so It does happen and don't anybody kid you because it does happen.  

       
       
Ok so its good you know what you have to do.  Does he do a baseball specific workout program?  My son's program has a guy who interned for cressey in boston and he has done wonders for our kids.  By bat speed I assume you mean exit velocity.  A true bat speed of 75 would already be D1 stuff.  75 exit velocity needs a lot of work.  Strength is the key.  Obviously mechanics play a role also.  Strength will also be a key for his pitch velocity.  Needs more drive down the mound and just faster movement in general.  This is driven by better conditioning leading to faster athletic movement.  Our town is not a strong baseball town.  I tell my son all the time "don't compare yourself to others here, ask yourself if you are on track for YOUR goals".  If he wants to play college where he ranks among his teammates is irrelevant.   And if he gets to the numbers he need to play college your hs playing time issue will be solved along with it.  An exit velocity of 75 equates to About 225 feet, perhaps a bit more with the perfect launch angle and a good wind behind you!  With that as a max distance it allows OF to play shallow and cut off hits.  Also his ground balls will not get through very often at all.  This is really important for him to improve.  Whatever else you spend on baseball I would scrap it and spend it on a qualified strength and conditioning coach.  I truly wish him the best of luck.  He must realize he is behind the curve and really work hard.  I hope we hear back from you in a year that he had put on 20 pounds of muscle and is getting looks!!!

I know a couple of 'Bama guys that would fight you over that.....

 

Where is Craig Heyward when you need him..... 

That was true bat speed at two different camps.  His big negative is he has a longer swing but has very quick hands and that came from a ex major league coach at one of the camps he was at.  Right now not much of strength training due to HS season going on but was doing a lot of squats and bands before the season.  So yeah he knows and its up to him.  But, as HS level ball stats are not really used around here they are only used to justify why the coach does what he does.  But, our HS team plays a lot of school even smaller than us so the stats are inflated and a couple of years ago a parent was keeping them and inflating certain players stats to make them look better than they really were.  For example this kids freshman year he only made like 5 errors the entire season and the next year a different score keeper he made over 10 errors and over 10 so far this year.  So another reason stats don't really matter

2020Dad, at the risk of hijacking this, do you think exit velocity can be deceiving?  Could a player take a real good hack at the ball off the tee to get the velocity up, and not be his actual game swing? 

 

I am working with my kids exit velocity and see a disconnect.  Last summer he tried that Zepp thing (I think it does bat speed) and was posting very low numbers.  This winter, I put him on a tee and with the coaches version of pocket radar he gets low 60s.  But in the cage and on the field he just pounds the ball (always has).  He hits it harder and farther than all of his teammates.  50% of his hits are doubles to the fence (should be triples, but he is slooooow).  Right now I am thinking bad data and too small sample size or a different swing off the tee.      

Well I'll be - this must be one of the parents who are frustrating me at my school now in two other sports.  Both sports are having fantastic seasons - one finished second in conference and the other is conference champ and ranked 3rd in the state - yet we could be so much better if the coaches would put kids on the bench in the games instead of who is out there.

 

There is one stat that trumps all others no matter how much importance you put on them and that is wins.  How many wins do you have?  Because if you have a lot then what the coach is doing is right.

  

Some people just amaze me on how selfish they are.  

       
       
Zepp intrigues me.  Just not sure I would trust it.  How old is your son?  Pocket radar us real tough for exit velocity.  You have to be positioned just right and the ball has to be going almost directly away from you or towards you.  Our program has a stalker so the kids get gunned with that from time to time.  At the end of his 12u season he w as 73 with bbcor.   Hasn't been gunned by stalker since.  I do use my pocket radar but I have to do a ton of reps to make sure I have some accuracy.  You also want to hold it low so the upward flight of the ball is going directly away.  Or high if you are in front behind a screen.  But yes kids can be different in a game of course.  And if he really squares the ball up 70mph can still hit a gap.  Just not much margin for error.  Get him gunned by a stalker.  Now a days someone you know has one!  One thing is for sure - its a matter of indisputable.physics that the faster the ball comes off your bat the better it is all other things being equal.  My son is 13u and first year on big field.  Some of the less strong kids square it up on the nose and its a 2 hopper to the ss.

I had a similar conversation with my wife the other night.  (I want to be clear though. Not really much drama on our team.) Anyhow, son's team is 26 & 0 now.  I think it is pretty rare to go undefeated at any level in baseball.  So the boys are doing pretty good, but you still hear whispers from some parents.  I told my wife that you can't really argue what the coaches are doing because the boys are undefeated.

Wait, did you really just throw all moms under the bus? lol

I am not pretending to know everything, but I am here to learn. Learn how all this works and how to best approach things to help my son better himself and choose the right path for him. Do I think my kid has talent. Of course. I think most parents who come to this site think that. Both moms and dads. Do I have any illusions about my son's talent level? Absolutely not. He is young. He has a long way to go and many improvements to make. You are the one that came on here screaming about where your son was placed and why couldn't the coaches see what you see. My son is actually getting some playing time on varsity as a Freshman.

 

I see a lot of complainers. Both men and women. It's an equal opportunity position.   

Originally Posted by Everyday Dad:

I like this info.However I would like to see a little more detail on the GB's and FB's

Bring all the hard hit balls together whether they are hits or outs

I'm guessing some of the GB's were scorched and some of the FB's were hit to the fence or were right at guys

 

Here’s the trouble with trying to do something like that. I’ve already caused a problem by only using only 4 trajectories because as everyone knows, there’s a big difference between a bunt, swinging bunt, bouncer, regular grounder, and scorched grounder, but they’re all grounders none-the-less and counted as such in other metrics like GBO/FBO. The same thing goes for Fly balls, popups, and line drives.

 

What I did was lay down the ground rules so there wouldn’t be a mistake. A grounder is a ball that touches the ground before the IF dirt. A line drive doesn’t touch the ground before it reaches an infielder and wouldn’t count as an IF fly. A popup is a ball in the air that doesn’t go further than 30’ or so beyond the IF dirt, and a fly ball covers the rest of the balls in the air. On top of the trajectories, each BIP can also be an out, single, double, triple, or HR, so each BIP will fall into 1 of 20 different categories.

 

What would it look like to also have another 4 or 5 possibilities for each type, and have other categories that depended on exit velocity? That’s all cool for venues like the ML where there is a literal army of people categorizing every pitch, every ball in play, and every movement of every player on the field, but for 1 guy trying to score a HS game who’s already trying to track over 12 data points, it’s a pretty big task, and one I’m not willing to get involved with, and can’t imagine anyone scoring a game who would.

 

Would the results of such a capability be interesting and useful? I’m sure they would, but how would it be possible without involving a lot more technology than is readily available at a very low cost? Mebbe in the future there’ll be an app that does everything Pitch and Hit f/x do, as well as the system that went into use this year to get all the player movement data. But until then, metrics such as what you’re asking for are way past what I’m able or want to generate, so I guess you’ll have to figger out how to get what you want by yourself.

 

If you could get an average of all these hard hit balls per TAB's, that is what I would think could tell me a bit better who the good hitters were.

 

There’s where I believe you’re not thinking it all the through. 1^st of all I’ve never tried to determine who the good hitters on a team were. All I do is score the game, archive the data, and try to present it in as many ways as possible to the user. It’s up to that user to make use of it as they see fit. Even with a below average team like ours I already churn out 247 pages of batting metrics, not counting the scatter charts, which is where the data for that metric comes from. If that’s not enough information on the 21 players on the team to figger out who the good hitters were, mebbe they should fire me and get someone else.

 

Of course your line drive Babip says something right there.

Of course it does which is why I see little point in trying to break it down into even smaller groups.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm guessing your best 2 hitters are Nichols and Vargas.

Even though Vargas's BA isn't very good.

Yet I would still like to see the above hard hit stat.

 

Depends on how you define “best”. Nichols is the definitely the best hitter on the team just about any way you want to define it. But Holt produces more runs per PA, 9 players move runners up at a higher percentage than Vargas, 7 have a higher OBP than Vargas, 6 have a higher OPS, of the regular players 7 reach base safely at a higher rather per PA than Vargas, 4 disrupt the opponent pitcher more on the bases, 5 have higher bases per out, 4 have a better ISO, 4 have a better RC, only 4 see fewer pitches per PA, not to mention too many other measurements to list here.

 

I think he can be a really good hitter, and he has 2 more years to do it. Sadly though, the kind of top notch coaching it takes to develop a really good hitter isn’t available. So, I’m sure he’s gonna get better, but I doubt he’ll every reach his full potential.

 

Thanks for the info!

 

You’re very welcome. That metric is part of the everyday package available to everyone, so it wasn’t a big deal to post it here too.

 

btw- I think you need a hitting coach

 

Here’s a piece of information that might make your head spin. Since the spring season began, there’s been no team BP. With 3 games a week and normally on 1 coach available, there’s only so much practice time available, and the defense and pitching has been so horrific, all the practice time has been devoted to that.

 

I’m telling you that to make sure you understand that it isn’t that the kids don’t have the genes or the brains to play this game. It takes a lot more than that, and the program isn’t set up for it right now. Hopefully it’s gonna get better.

 

 

Stats, do you have a way of separating out "real" steals from .. um... not real steals?  As is, steals seems to be one of the most worthless stats in HS ball.  I'm guessing that fewer than 10% of the "steals" I see are a runner taking a base on a pitcher throwing from the stretch with a reasonably quick-to-the-plate delivery, and a catcher with a decent arm catching the pitch cleanly and making a legit throw. The other 90% are not really indicative of skill and speed.

I totally agree with your concern regarding "Real Steals" and you hit an interesting subject regarding how bases are stolen. I have been clocking (right hand pitchers only) MTC (Move to Catcher...I love acronyms)  numbers for both JV and V this year.  They range from a low of 1.18 to a high of 1.94 for fastball and 1.27 to 2.14 for breaking / off speed pitches. Although I know there are a lot of people who may disagree with this statement and scream that their son / catcher has a 1.85 PoP time, the average game pop for a good high school varsity catcher is 2.20-2.25 and excellent for a HS varsity catcher would be a game throw 2.0-2.09 (From "catching coach" post May 27, 2006 8:36 PM).  If you make the assumption that an average HS base runner is <3.8 break to bag, good is <3.5 with the best~ 3.3, almost all steals in HS are a result of poor MTC (I said I just luv'em).  

 

These statistics that of course "don't mean anything" based on this post, provide some insight into where we can best invest our efforts to make it more difficult for teams to steal.

 

1. Have the catcher work to get their PoP in the 2.2 game range (lower is better but if your catcher does not have that capability don't strain at gnats)
2. Work with your pitching staff to deliver the ball to the plate in less that 1.4 seconds for a fastball and 1.5 for a breaking ball
3. Teach pitchers to cause opposing coaches to at least consider that they have a move to first.  Picking off a player is great, but causing a delay of 1 tenth of a second in a runners break is the real goal.

There will still be top base-runners that will be able to steal unless you have a lightning quick pitcher (<1.25) and an excellent catcher <2.1), but this focus will stop all but the best from succeeding and at times cause opposing coaches from even trying.

 

Just some thoughts...

Originally Posted by JCG:

Stats, do you have a way of separating out "real" steals from .. um... not real steals?  As is, steals seems to be one of the most worthless stats in HS ball.  I'm guessing that fewer than 10% of the "steals" I see are a runner taking a base on a pitcher throwing from the stretch with a reasonably quick-to-the-plate delivery, and a catcher with a decent arm catching the pitch cleanly and making a legit throw. The other 90% are not really indicative of skill and speed.

 

Well, I know people get all caught up in the wide ranging opponent level and in things like your example, but I honestly don’t. When I’m scoring a game, all I do is try very hard to record what took place and leave the judgments as to it’s worth to others.

 

By your standard I’d say of the 64 steals against us this season, none were “real”. The reason I say that is, we don’t have a single pitcher who is quick to the plate by any measure, or a catcher with a decent arm. Of the 6 runners we got, 2 were caught at the plate on a double steal attempt and 2 tripped somehow on the way to the next base.

 

So all I do is watch the play and record what took place. I could make a spot in the player’s record for whether he’s fast to the plate or has a decent arm, similar to whether he’s right or left handed, then apply that to what took place, but so far no one’s asked. I’ve done something similar to that by including a player’s home-to-1^st time in the metric showing bunts and IF hits. Seeing attached.

 

Doing that adds some context for the person looking at the metric and could be done with just about anything. To satisfy your request, I’d ask the coaches to give me a pitcher’s time to the plate and a catchers pop-2-pop time and include them in any report on SB’s for context.

 

 

 

 

"steals seems to be one of the most worthless stats in HS ball."

 

Very true.  IMO, the main reason this statement is true is that so many "steals" on HS stat sheets are uncontested steals--backside runners on first-and-thirds who are stealing second and the defense doesn't throw through (they have a MIF cut the ball etc.)  

MDBallDad,

 

Loved your post and agree completely. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of teams like ours running around. Our pitchers have great difficult throwing the ball in the strike zone, and when they do it’s usually with a straight FB that has a good chance of getting hit, and our catcher has at best a poor to below average arm. We have no one with skills to work with the pitchers or catcher, and there aren’t many parents who feel it’s worth the investment to get private coaching. So what happened was, the coaches spent a lot of time trying to get the pitchers to throw strikes and left the MTC to the whims of the baseball gods.

 

We’re ranked 10,365^th in the country. That means there are roughly 6,000 teams in the country in as bad or worse trouble than us. What you’re saying would be beneficial to a team like I used to score for and is ranked 2,027 this year in a bad year because the entire situation is different. It would certainly pay huge benefits to a team like ours, but unfortunately there are other things much higher on the priority list.

A notation on the pitcher's speed of delivery would be helpful, but I guess I'd be thinking more of an asterisk that you would add, for example to a SB that came at the tail end of a double steal, or to any 1st and 3rd situation, or to any  straight steal where the ball was bobbled at all by the catcher or double clutched or dug out of the dirt.

 

It comes back to the eye test that often gets mentioned when the small sample size and other limitations of HS stats come up.  As a coach you could have Johnny and Bobby on your roster, both with 10+ steals on the season, so they look even on paper.  But you know from watching the games that Johnny is a legit speedster who can take a base at will off a good battery, while Bobby is a good, opportunistic base-runner with average speed.

MBBallDad,

Your numbers match mine.  But I'd like to add something that's beyond the numbers:

Let's say your pitcher is 1.4 to the plate and your catcher is 2.3 to second base.  That's a combined poptime of 3.7.

Let's say my potential basestealer is 3.7 to second base.

Let's say I've decided to steal on the first pitch (probably a fastball) because I need my runner in scoring position NOW.

 

Here's what I'm thinking as a 3B coach--

On the one hand, if your 3.7 versus my 3.7 results in a bang-bang play, the runner is always "out" in HS baseball. HS umpires always call in favor of the defense on these plays (not true in MLB).

 

On the other hand, I still might roll the dice because I'm hoping the throw will be just in-accurate enough (i.e., it's not right on the bag) to gain my basestealer another .2 of a second before he is tagged

Here's my problem with what you all are talking about.  A steal is a steal is a steal according to the rule book.  Now you are talking about how to measure "quality steals" as opposed to just a plain old steal.  You say HS steals are a worthless stat.  That leads into the whole post and why some people consider HS stats in general worthless.  The worth of all stats is totally dependent on the quality of competition.  Whether that be pitchers who pitch against the best opposing teams vs. the pitchers who pitch against the worst teams in the league.  Or the batters who only come in to mop up in blowouts.  Or, in this case, the base runners who have a bunch of steals against slow to the plate pitchers and catchers with high pop times.  There is such a wide variety in the quality of HS teams out there, you really can't compare.

 

Some teams in the country play against top competition all season, some teams play against horrible competition.  How can you compare the two?

 

What you are trying to do is in some way noble, but it is not going to fix the problem of comparing HS stats so they become relevant.  Even if you came up with a metric to quantify competition, much of it will be in the eye of the beholder as to how good that competition is.  I really don't think you can make any of it work to the point that all HS scorekeepers can apply the standards and metrics to make all HS stats comparable.  You're lucky if you can get some SKs to record what is actually a steal by rule book standards (as opposed to WP, PB, defensive indifference, etc...), never mind getting them to record a pitcher's time to home and a catchers pop time and adding them up to see if the runner stole 2nd against a quality battery or if the defense just stinks and it really wasn't a "quality steal".  

 

Same thing with the line drive argument.  At what point does a batted ball change from a line drive to a pop up?  Is it the degree of angle?  Is it whether the ball was "barreled up"?  What about a hit that was way high in the air (pop up), but just hit to a perfect spot?  How will that fit into the metric?  If it is left up to the SK, imagine the disparity of what each SK will judge every ball hit in the air to the outfield.  It's mind-boggling.

 

Good luck with all that.  It's sort of interesting, but really not practical.

Yup.  That about sums it up.

One of the problems with steals in high school ball is that I see a lot of steals recorded that I (sitting there with my own scorebook in order to occupy myself and keep from coaching from the sideline) record as Defensive Indifference.

Just to put it in perspective, I'm not sure our oldest son's college coach even knew where he went to high school, much less what his stats were (kidding, but still kind of true).  He watched our kid in tournaments and showcases and made his offer.

Steals can be misleading, no doubt about it.  However, steal "times" on the stop watch can be very meaningful. We already know what good times are for a pitcher out of the stretch and we know what good pop times are.  If we have 3.5 combination and runner is 3.4 steal time, he simply has to get a good jump and he becomes nearly impossible to throw out.

 

i used to debate with the late Tom Rizzi about this.  He believed the only thing that mattered was whether the runner was safe or out.  In fact, he was right if you simply consider the game being played.  However, from a scouting or evaluation perspective, what matters most is the actual time it took to steal that base.  Lets face it, it is easy to steal with a slow pitcher, a breaking ball thrown, and a slow catcher with a weak arm. That doesn't mean that runner can steal bases at the next level. Or even against better competition.

 

Still, if I see a very large number of SB's and very low number of caught stealing, it can create some interest.  It tells me something... It tells me that it is "possible" the player has some speed and good instincts.  It also tells me he gets on base a lot.  In some cases it might tell me he lacks power.  You don't usually steal a ton of bases when you hit HRs and extra base hits.  So in fact those stats are meaningful because they create a picture of the player.  It can be enough to dig deeper. Digging deeper often means going to see for yourself.

 

When I was coaching we had a player set the all time small college record with exactly 100 SB's in 109 attempts. This was against teams ranging from DI to DIII.  He created a lot of scouting interest because of those numbers.  He later went on to run a 6.25 at a Busch Stadium workout for the Cardinals.  He also hit over .400 that season with only a couple extra base hits.  As fast as he was he was not a hitter despite his high average. The steals got the scouts to come out and see him, seeing him hit kept them from coming back.

 

I know that was college not high school, but it is the same thing.  Stats can create interest at times, but scouting is all about evaluating what a player has for potential at a higher level.  Stats don't always add up to potential.  Having great stats in one league doesn't mean great stats at the next league. So are stats important? Yes, very important IMO.  Are they enough? No way! That would make it too easy.

 

Are stats meaningless?  Absolutely not, baseball is a game full of stats. Stats are very important in different ways to different people.

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I like that defensive indifference.  That is so true in HS ball because they can't make the throw.  Another reason why stats don't matter.  Steals are inflated because of that very thing.  

Originally Posted by roothog66:

One of the problems with steals in high school ball is that I see a lot of steals recorded that I (sitting there with my own scorebook in order to occupy myself and keep from coaching from the sideline) record as Defensive Indifference.

 

I’ve seen many arguments about defensive indifference, but as a scorer keeping in mind the rule and the comment about it pertaining to stolen bases. In all my years of scoring, I could count the times I’ve not credited a SB because of DI on 1 hand. The reason isn’t because I don’t believe it happens, it’s that when I take in the totality of the circumstances, it isn’t very often it happens.

 

Originally Posted by Irondad:

I like that defensive indifference.  That is so true in HS ball because they can't make the throw.  Another reason why stats don't matter.  Steals are inflated because of that very thing.  

 

Yeah, SB stats are inflated, but that’s not even close to the main reason. The main reason is the same as why all of the HS stats have problems. That’s because too many people holding the pencil or the IPad don’t know the scoring rules, and that falls on the shoulders of nobody other than the HC. Every HC who values stats makes sure he has a good SK, and it’s as simple as that.

The definition of defensive indifference in the rules is surprisingly limited.

I have friend who has written baseball books with many famous people, very knowledgeable guy..

His son has graduated so he follows my son and keeps me entertained at games.

Son has thrown out 16 so far (16 games, most games they know him & don't run against him).

Besides 'stealing on pitchers' due to the largely lost art of keeping runners close & pickoffs (HS 'ace' is a lefty with a poor move for example)

My buddy tracked his dropped on-target throws down in the 'tag zone' that beat the runner as 12 so far.

(weak 2nd basemen here, wide range of talent levels in HS ball)

 

Maybe that will become the next stat to be tracked, LOL