HS Stats - "Don't Mean Anything"

So there's an upside . . . .

If you want to get all technical:

 

College stats don't mean anything...only what they do in MLB

 

High School stats don't mean anything....only what they do in College

 

Little League stats don't mean anything....only what they do in High School

 

Tee Ball stats don't mean anything....only what they do in Little League

 

 

This game sure is FULL of stats that just don't mean ANYTHING!  Why don't we just keep score and get rid of the rest?

 

There is also the factor of who'd you do it against.  We all saw the kid that when the velocity on the hill hopped up from the 70's to the mid 80's couldn't get to it anymore.  The player hung in there but was really a bench option playing in blowouts picking up a few AB's here and there.

 

I was getting my ear bent by the parent of the bench player that was something like 5 for 8 in garbage time against the bullpens of the teams softest opponents halfway through the season.  I finally had enough and said "he looked good against XHS but how do you thing he'd do against YHS and the DI pitcher they have?".  The kind of puzzled and vacant slack jawed look in front of me was both priceless and embarrassing. He muttered some kind of "well I'm not sure".  I had recovered my composure enough to say, "well if he keeps it up he might get his chance".  He never did.

 

 

Actually I had this thought as well as I was talking to him.  Some of our kids only play in B games or get mop up time against softer teams.  Decided against this line of conversation as I was really attempting to be somewhat nice to the guy.

I think HS stats have a place for the HC and assistants to use to help inform their decisionmaking on line-ups, defensive positioning, and to check/confirm what they probably already know.

one problem with HS stats -- especially early in the season -- is that the sample size is very small and hence subject to rapid fluctuation among other things.  Not very "projectable.'

Even after a full season,  you've still got a pretty small sample size.  And especially if you go by old-school stats they are pretty uninformative.

 

Can only speak to our experience.

Accurate stats can be valuable.

As they used to say in the IT field- GiGo, Garbage In Garbage Out

 

If you have a baseball person like the many knowledgeable people on this board doing stats, GC, Maxpreps, the book, etc you have useful, valuable, accurate data.

 

Just personal experience, a professional scout told me this week that they are very turned off by this, went to see kids here in the Northeast and feels many many stats were inflated, his guess was school board members/booster club VP's, etc sons were getting errors listed as hits, fielder's choices as hits and if pitchers most runs are marked 'unearned' for a low ERA.

He checked online after a week of watching HS games and his notes did not match. Other kids hits/rbi's went to someone else for example.

He said one kid went 0-7 that he saw yet his online average went up.

 

Said his organization is turned off by this and may take some HS off their list/stops.

.

This was one conversation with one scout - your results may vary as they say on TV.

 

Coincidentally, Last night a player here reached on an obvious error, a dad near us said it's (xxxxx) so it will be scored a double online. LOL

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To the savvy accurate scorekeepers out there, great job.

  

 

You're killing me.  It was the only time in what seemed like 50 conversations over 5 years I got really ugly and felt bad about it as soon as the words were out of my mouth.  Plus the guy was a harmless dude that wasn't a baseball lifer.  It really was embarrassing but there was still that little twinge of "gotcha" that made me realize I am not perfect.

Here is my bottom line on stats.  First they naturally have to be kept fairly and accurately.  This alone is a challenge at the youth or high school level.  Then you have to make sure they are apples to apples.  Also nearly impossible at the youth or high school level.  For example ace pitcher gets best teams.  Number four pitcher pitches against the little sisters of the poor and often can have similar or even better stats than the ace.  Subs get in the game against horrible teams more often than not and can hit for higher average than starters who sit the bench these games and play against good pitching.  Even within a game it can be apples to oranges.  At 13u we played a game recently with the best pitcher in the state.  He had pitched that weekend ant this was a tuesday game.  They decided to give him one inning.  They waited for the right time.  When 4,5,6 were due up - all big hitters - they brought him in for his inning.  He did serve up a couple walks but he also struck out the side.  So those three who struck out against him were at a statistical disadvantage.  In mlb from the best pitcher to the worst there is not nearly the discrepancy that there was from this kid to even their second best pitcher.  Too much difference in ability at hs level and youth ball.  In no way shape or form can stats be relied upon.  Plus the fact that 20 games or so is not a big enough sample size.  So to even think about stats until the season is over is kind of ridiculous.   Even in college the difference from high D1 to low D1 or D1 to D3 etc is so large what does it mean that the D3 kid hit .439?  Not to mention difference from conference to conference.  That .439 could get him drafted.  Or it could mean he is a good but not great player who went there for (gasp) academics and is just far better than the other kids in that conference.  Enjoy your kids successes but please do all us coaches a favor and don't talk about stats.  When your kid gets to the bigs then there are people everywhere whose job it will be to break down all his stats!

There was a dad of a kid who was 2 years behind my son when my son was in HS.  This was a travel team coach, would constantly talk about how good his kid was, how he was getting screwed over by the coaches, how much politics were involved, how he would be doing things differently...  Complain, Complain, Complain...  I got so sick of it 3 years ago, I just couldn't talk to the guy anymore.  This year I went to a couple of games at the HS.  This guy's kid is now graduated and not playing baseball anymore, but he has a younger son playing.  I figured I'd go by and say hey to him.  Boy, was that a mistake.  All he could talk about is how bad the other players were that were playing over his son, how bad the coaching is, how the booster club screwed him over - on and on and on...  He started spewing off all the stats of the other kids on the team.  And specifically the other catcher.  So, I asked him what his son was hitting?  He says, "Well, he's only struck out twice in 9 ABs and has put the ball in play every other time he's been up" and went on to explain what he did on every AB.  So I said "So, he doesn't have any hits then?"  Haha.  After that I just REALLY didn't want to hear anything else.  Some people just never change.

I guess your story reminded me of our older son's HS team.  Loaded with parents fixated on stats.  I kept the book for the HC.

 

One game, a kid bunts with runners on 1st & 2nd.  Pitcher fields, throws to 3rd, batter safe at 1st.  Father comes over, looks over my shoulder and says, "Thats gotta be a hit! - My son should be playing more and so the coach has to see that he got a hit!!"  

 

Uh oh! 

9 AB's is a ridiculously small number to judge a hitter on.  

 

And if he did put the ball in play 7 out of 9 times and none of them went for a hit, he has a ridiculously  low BABIP.  if he could maintain that ratio of balls in play to K's the hits would eventually be sure to come.

 

But you can't tell much of anything from 9 AB's positive or negative, really.   (except swing mechanics and approach, and then only if you know what you are looking at).   So neither of you were making the slightest whiff of sense. 

 

I would be very willing to say that High School Statistics, as well as lower levels do not tell the entire story of a players value to the team and that there are significant inconsistencies in the quality of scorekeeping but I am not sure I can reach the point of saying that High School Statistics don't mean anything.  I will agree that statistics viewed by anyone outside the team coaches (In particular parents) should not be used to determine player value, role or playing time but to a coach I believe they are valuable. The reason is that a coach should know what the statistics means for a given player in a given situation.

 

We are very fortunate and have a scorekeeper that is exceptionally skilled and has been doing it for 20+ years.  As you can imagine our players hate it because they rarely make an appearance in the "Top" statistical categories.  Hits are hits, errors are errors, fielders choices are fielders choices etc.

 

So here are the reasons I believe people outside the coaches should ignore statistics. 

1. Season duration is too short.  The general idea is that statistics level out and gain some credibility at ~200 ab means that you do not have enough time for the flair base hits and the line drive outs to even out and become representative. The new iScore our keeper uses allows for each contact to be rated Hard, medium or soft and that is valuable to help address this issue.
2. Variability of pitching and competition: Some teams are exceptional and some teams have excellent pitching.  Other teams are weak defensively and have position players throwing because they have no real pitchers.  I have a player (It may be the son of the dad you talked with) that can hit poor pitching that is mid-70's in the middle of the plate with little chance of an effective off-speed.  It is my job to place all the players into opportunities against competition where they can succeed and help the team.  Sometimes that leads to Dad wanting to know why his doesn't get ab's against the better teams and pitchers. Early in the season I eased him in against better pitching... he has 6 ab's against quality pitching (6 K's). I have addressed the fundamental swing and pitch selection issues but he has not demonstrated he has mastered what is needed. He is still a great kid and he will get opportunities but not against pitchers that overmatch him. 
3. Opponent capability:  The same holds true with our pitching staff.  I have a pitcher that statistically is excellent but there is a reason for that.  He throws a high percentage of strikes against the lower level teams and eats innings for the team.  He is perfect for that role and we win with him on the mound but the statistics are misleading.  He knows exactly who he pitches against and why. If someone outside the team looked at the statistics alone and wants to know why in the first round of the playoffs we are pitching the pitcher with a 4-1 record and a 1.67 era and not the one with the 4-0 record with the 0.97 era my answer would be because he gives the team that best opportunity to win... 

So all of that to say, statistics should not be used by parents or players to evaluate their capabilities or their value to the team because the statistics cannot ever tell the entire story.  We have a 18 man roster and they all contribute to the success of the team,  When we can, the leaders and stars gladly take a seat on the bench and cheer on the players who are not in the line-up every day (That is a story in itself).  We won't give away wins but everyone understands what we are trying to achieve and it is bigger than just HS baseball.

 

Sorry about that...hopping off the soapbox now...

Originally Posted by CaCO3Girl:..

This game sure is FULL of stats that just don't mean ANYTHING!  Why don't we just keep score and get rid of the rest?

 

That one’s easy. There’s a rule book and it says certain data for each game WILL be kept. There’s absolutely nothing wrong with keeping baseball stats! What’s wrong is how they are used by often ignorant people not understanding what they mean, or by those who purposely bias the data for personal reasons.

I wouldn't say they don't mean anything.  My son's college stats (JuCo) for his sophomore year got him noticed by an assistant coach at a D2 University that eventually made an offer.  They never saw him play.  This was one case were "stats" did make a difference.

 

But by and large I don't put too much stock in HS stats as has it has been pointed out, the scorekeepers (I am using that term loosely) record stats incorrectly or inaccurately.  No too mention that statistically it's too small of a sample.

Man! There's a shocker!!    

 

 

Originally Posted by justbaseball:

I guess your story reminded me of our older son's HS team.  Loaded with parents fixated on stats.  I kept the book for the HC.

 

One game, a kid bunts with runners on 1st & 2nd.  Pitcher fields, throws to 3rd, batter safe at 1st.  Father comes over, looks over my shoulder and says, "Thats gotta be a hit! - My son should be playing more and so the coach has to see that he got a hit!!"  

 

Uh oh! 

 

I’ve been scoring baseball games from LL to college for 20+ years now, and I honestly very seldom have seen more than 1 parent on a team who was “fixated” or “obsessed” with stats, and I’ve always made the team stats very public. And for those who were “fixated” or “obsessed”, in every instance it was their ignorance of how the stats would be used that caused the problems.

 

Most don’t know how the coach is using the stats, buut hey know every coach uses them to some degree, so they immediately fall back on what they know about MLB. The guy with the lowest ERA, most Ks, highest BA, most HRs, highest FPct usually gets the most accolades and $$$$$$. I’ve never seen anyone who’s been given a good explanation by the coach about how he judges and uses them who continues to be a complaining PITA. Trouble is, coaches all seem to ASSUME they’d have to explain themselves to every parent, so they explain themselves to none, and therein lies the disconnect.

If anyone thinks MLB scoring is accurate check out the first few innings of last nights Sox-Rays game. As the Rays announcer said, "I guess errors don't exist anymore." Balls popping out of gloves and misjudged pop ups were called hits. At least at the MLB level you're dealing with stats in large numbers as the season wears on. 

 

I'm not a Rays fan. I refuse to listen to Jerry Remy unless it's against the Yankees. He's that bad. Fortunately he was out sick for the Yankees series. I usually watch the opposing team feed on MLBtv.

I had to laugh, last week the score keeper for the other team came over to our side and asked if we had scored a hit for our player.  Our scorekeeper said "It was a pop-up to the middle of the infield with no one on base, the pitcher ran away the shortstop and third baseman looked at each other and then both froze, it was an error to the 3rd baseman who should have caught it" to which the other score keeper replied "But no one touched it!"  Apparently they should score for Rays!!!

Speaking of stats in small numbers. When my son was in high school I told him with his speed he could add 100 points to his average with some bunts for hits. He always looked where the third baseman was positioned before each at bat except when there was an rbi opportunity. With 70 abs 5-7 bunt singles were worth 80-100 points in his batting average. Then he would steal second. It netted out the same as hitting doubles. If the corners played way up he had bigger hitting alleys on each side. When everything went right junior year the bunts bumped his average up to .530.

Agreed on MLB scorekeepers of late giving the benefit of the doubt to hitters vs. fielders on errors. I was watching a recent Nats game and the announcer FP Santangelo commented on one paerticular play scored a hit: "that's not a hit, and I almost always side with the hitter." Which got me thinking about this topic and how pro-hit/anti-error the scoring seems to have moved.  

My opinion?  People focus too much on stats in HS. My son doesn't even know what his average is until another player eventually tells him. For him it's just focusing on one pitch at a time, one at bat at a time. I'm more interested in how he "looks" at the plate and has his understanding of the pitchers, the variety of pitches and velocity, and whether his overall game has increased from season to season. That's more valuable to me.

But I will agree, some players get a little too much fluff added to their stats. That's great. Not sure how much that helps when a coach or scout comes to see you.

I would agree with you if the stats were properly kept and kept by the same person.  In our case the phone is passed around from game to game between the players.  These are really the only stats our team keeps.  I've been told that the coaches never look at the stats.

I am sure this happens everywhere.  One factor is if the dad compiling the stats is creative with his son's stats, then he may be creative with other's stats too, because he doesn't want to look like he is favoring his kid.

 

 

Statistics at every level actually are important If they are accurate.  However statistics don't tell enough to accurately evaluate a player.

 

Some statistics are more revealing and create more interest than others.  

 

Pitchers striking out a lot of hitters with a low number of walks and hits. (Whip)

Still have to consider the level of competition.

 

 

Hitters with a high number of extra base hits and Home Runs with low number of Ks. Still have to take into consideration the parks they play in and the level of pitching.

 

I would say the stats that mean the least are pitchers ERA and hitters batting average. We see stats that are sent to us every day.  Sometimes they create interest, sometimes they mean nothing, and sometimes they reveal a negative reaction.

 

Example, we recently looked at the hitting stats of a HS player.  The parents were using these stats to explain why their son was such a good prospect.  The players batting average was just below .500, but with one extra base hit (a double) in over 80 at bats.  Looking further he had 0 stolen bases in 2 SB attempts.  So what would someone get out othat ose stats?  After looking at everything, you might suspect the batting average doesn't make sense.  No indication of power (1 extra base hit), no indication of speed (0 SB despite being on 1B all the time).  Doesn't look like this player hits the ball hard or runs well, so what does the high batting average really mean.  

 

While stats might not be very important in evaluating players, stats are still a very important part of sports.  Then again poor stats can become a red flag.  Example, a player is recognized by the scouting community as a early round draft prospect.  Then his final HS season he is hitting below .200 with a large number of K's.  Or a top prospect pitcher is giving up two hits an inning and walking more than he K's.  All of a sudden those stats become very meaningful.

Jerry I have read your posts in response to this same type of thread maybe three or four times. And every time I come away thinking "Man he sure said that better than I ever could have."

 

 

I was thinking the same thing when I read his post. 

I know.  I'm probably just venting about having to deal with that dad.  There is a point though.  Don't rag on other people if your own results are not any better, even if it is a small sample size.  I don't remember this kid hitting when I was there.  I did see him catch one game though and I remember thinking specifically that he had a very weak arm.  That doesn't mean he can't hit, but I don't think he was as good a catcher as his dad thought he was.  Extrapolate the rose colored glasses to hitting and you got what you got...  He did the same thing with his older son.  He was no where near as good as his dad talked him up.

 

This is a case of a parent using stats to degrade others on the team as opposed to using them to bolster a case for his own son.  That happens when stats are misused as well.

Wish there was a stat for squaring up the ball.

or gap to gap line drives.

Forget the week infield hits or seeing eye grounders and bloopers.

That would tell me a lot more

Everyday Dad

great point, me too

Those bloopers and bleeders are a welcome sight after you have lined out and scortched several gb's right at them.

In our experience, what mattered most for college recruiting, was what the college coaches saw live.  And usually more than once.

 

The second most important input was an objective, reliable third party's opinion.  For my sons, that was a PG rating with commentary and demonstrable #'s (e.g., throwing velocity, running speed, etc.).

 

In the college recruiting process, high school stats mattered very little in our experience.  And neither did all league/region/state mentions in the local newspaper.  All that might be nominally useful for marketing purposes, but that was about it. 

 

 

Stats below the professional level have some uses internally, but that's about it. Take for example my own son. He leads the conference in era at 0.053. Our #1 pitcher sits number 2 at .054. Difference is, our #1 pitches against the tough teams while my son, a freshman, gets starts against the real bottom-dwellers (by design). There's no comparison. I guess I could also add that he leads the team in batting average, but doesn't start. He's getting screwed. OK, not really. Hits .714, but only has 10 plate appearances. Another freshman on our varsity sports a 1.000 ba, a 4.000 slugging % and a 5.000 OPS. Hit a three-run shot in his only at bat all year.

 

Even with D1 colleges, you can't compare your weekend starters to your mid-week guys, statistically.

Amen to that!!  Same with pitcher's stats.  How many times you see a pitcher get dinked and dunked to death?  Give up 3 runs on 2 infield singles a bloop over 2nd and a ground ball between short and 3rd.  Ugh....

For the sake of you BA, yes I would absolutely agree.

Although I would like to see a stat for line drives whether they are hit or outs 

Or any hard hit squared up ball. I'll take the scorcher GB's as well

When I'm trying to guage the talent level of a pitcher we are going up against and all I have are stats, I pay no attention to era. I focus primarily on K's, walks andthe number of innings pitched. In my mind, at the high school level, the pirchers I fear are the ones that can get their own outs.