I hate the Cubs

I will take Soriano on my team anytime

quote:

quote:
2008 Cubs record with Soriano leading off – 69 wins – 36 loses

2008 Cubs record with anyone other than Soriano leading off – 28 wins – 28 loses


CPLZ,

Knowing the above... Who would you lead off?

Not a fair question at all! The hidden fact is that when Soriano did not lead off, he did not play. So the real question would be, how would the Cubs do with a more traditional lead-off hitter and Soriano in the three, four or five spot. Hopefully we'll find out next year.

"If they bench him and they lose three straight, how would Lou explain that?"

This isn't a just this year thing, he was bad last year also. He has 1 hit in two years of getting swept, he was 0-5 in the last game. Would I have benched him game 1? Likely not. Game 2? no..maybe not..but if you watched his body posture and demeanor was showing a losing attitude at that point..but you go 0-5 in the last game and do nothing to shake it up..well you go ahead and take him on your team anytime TR. In my opinion it was a failure of leadership..he looked like someone beat his mommy..his tail was tucked. The problem was that NOTHING was done except benching Fukudome and he played anyway..I'm a firm believer in dancing with who brings you to the dance..but if they are lame you get a new partner..It would have taken courage for Lou to make a move that radical no doubt..but swept in 3 is swept in 3. It's like trying to justify pitching Hardin in front of Lilly..if it worked ok..but Ted was no doubt about it..going away, the best, most consistent starter in the last two months..his arm was the only one that looked live..he was a lefty which would have forced the Dodgers to adjust. The Cubs passively took an A$$whoopin for 3 games..if that train wreck didn't make a baseball fan sick, I don't know what would..It's like letting Manny homer in 2 games in a row and not at least making him move his feet (Like it or not I'd have put one on him at least once..)..they should go home and suc on their thumbs they got whooped by men and looked like losers.

Harden pitched fine. He is not the reason they lost Game 3. It would have been huge to have had Lilly in Game 4 to get them back home.

You never bench Soriano. He is so streaky and you never know when one of those streaks will start.

Well Holden they did what you said..
Now to my point about Lilly...he would have made the Dodgers adjust, get a different look..something..he had the hottest arm on the team..what better way to ensure a "good" pitcher like Hardin could have gotten a shot..with a little momentum to boot? To not even get him on the field was a poor management decision. As to Soriano, I understand the "earned" in the year, "clutch" hitter arguement, but the dude had mailed it in..if by the time he's 0-2 or 0-3 in the last game putting someone who could get on base for the "hot" Derrick Lee..at least get him a chance and play defense..it would have served to light a fire under Soriano and just maybe given him a chance to show it by playing a game 4. As it is, it's all speculation..but you conventional wisdom guys have to consider that Lou DID exactlly as you said..they looked bad..they did nothing to derail the upcomming train wreck and it was fatal..so whatever..we're out of it...hopefully they get that far next year and do SOMETHING different, like win for those long suffering fans like you and me.

One thing that is pretty clear when it comes to Soriano--Benching Soriano is not the way to get Soriano to play better.

JD, you're assuming that Lilly would have pitched better than Harden, but Harden did not pitch bad to begin with. Lilly would have had to have been virtually unhittable. The Cubs scored ONE FREAKING RUN that game!!! Lilly at his best seldom throws a shutout and never goes all the way.

Harden avgs 5 innings..Ted Lilly had no hitters into the 7th and 6th in his last 2 starts and was the only starter to win in the last rotation..Harden hadn't won since 9/11..Lilly had won his last 4 consecutive starts. That said, sure they scored a run, but consider if they kept LA from scoring early, and were more in game 3 and LA had shorter innings so we saw Karoda more and quicker...Harden was wobbly early and tooth and nailed his way through and we had to go to the pen after 4 1/3 so confidence wasn't high on our bench..particularly Soriano..So with a more confident mound appearance we may in fact have hit better...but Karoda got plenty of tween inning rest because the Dodgers were getting people on..my point is they were comfortable at the plate and seeing a righty for the 3rd day straight and they were already confident..WHY NOT get a different look? I don't understanbd your arguing the point..you are defending getting swept and acting like the Cubs could have done nothing to change that, I on the other hand think our skipper left EFFECTIVE and proven weapons in the holster.
When was Soriano ever benched? Who has done anything but kissed his hounches? Look friend I don't deny the man is an outstanding baseball player..he hosed the Cubs..he didn't get on base, both are facts..he didn't homer and he looked like he gave up...Believe me I've carried his water all year..but he failed, failed when we needed him and all I'm saying is that the Cubs made no real attempt to change destiny, Lou has been in this spot before and has come up empty..we came up empty.
It will happen again unless we understand what went wrong and be brave enough to consider a change.

Shoulda kept Lou Brock
Madlock
Maddux
Lee Smith
Sutter
Ekersley
Holtzman
Heck with all the bad press maybe we coulda got A Rod for him..Theriot at second and move Derossa to left..wow...
We got NEXT YEAR!!!!! Won't it be fun..Like I said..maybe the new owner..Cuban would be like a combo of Bill Veeck and Charlie Finley..maybe they'd snatch up a Yao kinda guy from China Get us a little freak show action goin..
I bet Torre woulda backed Manny off the daggone plate......or given a closer shave anyway.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by jdfromfla:
Shoulda kept Lou Brock
QUOTE]

True....but he's 69, so I'm not sure howmuch he'd help you.....

quote:

True....but he's 69, so I'm not sure howmuch he'd help you.....

See...now what if he was in Cub Blue IN 69? Would that have put them over the top? Would it have set them up for a multi-year role on top? I mean lets see who was the center fielder in 69? Adolfo Phillips? Instead we have a Lou Brock?? Him leading off instead of Don Kessinger? Hummmm I think we wouldn't perhaps be as long suffering..That my friend, is the point..

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:

quote:

2008 Cubs record with Soriano leading off – 69 wins – 36 loses

2008 Cubs record with anyone other than Soriano leading off – 28 wins – 28 loses

CPLZ,

Knowing the above... Who would you lead off?

PG,
Theriot...less K's, more BB's, sees more pitches. He'll not only do more for runs with OB% but give the hitters down the line a better look at the pitches.

Sox made the same mistake with Cabrerra at times. He doesn't understand the role. In one playoff game he made 3 outs on 6 pitches, including leading off the game with a 1 pitch out.

Soriano, although a great talent, continues to prove that he's not a "take one for the team" type of player, which is part of the definition of a lead off guy.

I too think that Theriot would be a more reasonable lead off hitter and that Soriano is more of a middle of the lineup guy. However, we are not managing the Cubs and we didn't manage them to the best record in the National League.

Was there any discussion before the playoffs about this terrible decision to lead off Soriano? It's real easy to use hindsight. Even Lou probably can look back and wish he would have done something different.

I do think it is fair to use that record with Soriano leading off. Without it (the record) there is no argument. Granted he led off all but two times and the rest of the time he was hurt and out of the line up. While we might think they would have done better with someone else leading off, this is what really did happen.

2008 Cubs record with Soriano leading off – 69 wins – 36 loses

2008 Cubs record with anyone other than Soriano leading off – 28 wins – 28 loses

That 69-36 record = .657 winning %

The Angels had the best regular season record in baseball. They won 100 games. (100-62)

Their winning % was .617

So it is hard to imagine that the Cubs would have won more than .657% with someone else leading off. The .657 would equate to a record of 107-55 (if my math is correct)

My point is not whether or not Soriano is a typical leadoff hitter. In fact, I agree that he is not! But how can anyone argue with the results before the playoffs. Arguing the results after everything is over is very easy. The Cubs lost three in a row! Had they won three in a row, Lou would be a hero. The 100 year thing is amazing.

Notes - Manny built his reputation playing against Joe Torre managed teams. Joe didn't figure out how to get him to slow down either. BTW, the Phillies are up 2-0 in that series.

The playoffs are a **** shoot, especially the first round of 5 games. Anything can and does happen. If the Washington Nationals were allowed in and played the Angels, it is entirely possible the Nationals could win three games in a row. We all know... That's baseball! The wild card team has won several world championships. In the old days the Dodgers wouldn't have made the playoffs. The Cubs would have played the Angels in the World Series. Just a few years ago the Red Sox had the jinx! They played the Yankees in the AL Championship (7 game series) and lost three in a row. They came back to win four in a row and went on to win the World Series. If that would have been a five game series, history would have changed. Francona would have been second guessed rather than becoming a genius.

I think the term is... Monday morning Quarterback. I do understand it is fun to do. Do it myself all the time. Things become so obvious after it's all over. Maybe we should apply for the Cubs manager job!

Heard on the radio the other day:

For all you cub fans - the devil has a trade offer...

He will help you win the World Series - just once - but you have to trade Wrigley Field for the Tampa stadium forever...

Would you make the trade?

I get Chicago cable via slingbox and saw 50-60 games this year.

If Soriano is on the Cub roster he must play.... at least until its time to defensively protect a lead. He is just too dangerous, especially when mixed in with the rest of that middle order.

Leadoff shouldn't be in his future.

And, at least 3x times this year I saw him get singles on near miss home runs than HE DID NOT RUN OUT.

As he doesn't run much anymore, and Lou doesn't run that much anyway, he doesn't inflict much chaos on the bases.

His hole is clearly the slider:

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/batters/Alfonso_Soriano.html

He should hit in a spot that minimizes his exposure to a pitch he can't lay off.

DEFENSIVE NOTE: Beyond his + arm, the rest is -.

PG,
Here in Chicago, there has been lots of criticism all year long, even pre-season, about Soriano in the #1 hole, so it's not hindsight.

Your stats are compelling, but lacking the attribute Holden brought up, which seem glaringly more significant than your hypothesis. When Soriano wasn't leading off, he wasn't playing.

You and I both agree that if we did it, Soriano wouldn't lead off. That means that if we rate the significance of Soriano playing, over Soriano leading off...then...by our own admission, wouldn't the Cubs have a better record than 69-36 when Soriano played?

That's the problem with using stats to formulate arguments...we never know which data is priority and which is missing and sometimes, what other factors there are to consider. Things can sound very convincing one way, yet ludicrious in a different context. Great argument fodder, but lacking the eyeball it takes to read and breakdown the situation. It's why Perfect Game exists and we don't just file our stats to a national database.

Now see, if the White Sox were still in this deal, you could have merrily gone about your way with no interference from me because I would be too preoccupied to talk about anything Cubbie.

quote:

He should hit in a spot that minimizes his exposure to a pitch he can't lay off.

Ok and what spot is that? Which spot in the batting order is it outlawed to throw a slider? He could bat leadoff all the way down to ninth and a good slider will give him trouble (as it will with all hitters).

The whole series most of the Cubs did not have a good approach at the plate. They took too many good ones and swung at the bad ones. I don't care what level you play if you take that approach you are not going to be successful.

Soriano had a terrible series but so did Fukodome, Soto, Edmonds and Ramierez.

Theiriot had a decent postseason but compared to his regular season he underperformed.

DeRosa and Lee were unconscious.

Overall most of the Cubs on this roster do not perform well overall in the postseason historically.

Ramierez is a .194 career hitter with 5 HR in 64 AB in the postseason

Lee is .263 career hitter with 1 HR in 95 AB in the postseason

Theriot is a .261 hitter in 23 AB in the postseason but he is still pretty young and early in his career

Soriano is a .213 hitter in 174 AB with 4 HR in the postseason

Edmonds is a .274 hitter in 230 AB with 13 HR in the postseason

Johnson made his first trip to the postseason this year.

Fontenot is a .250 hitter in 8 AB so he is like Theriot.

The Cubs went 4 - 2 against the Dodgers this year and all the games were pretty competitive and the stats weren't all that impressive against them.

So this was a total team let down.

If every team in the playoffs was of equal talent, you should win about one out of every 8 trips. If you are the best team, which I think the Cubs were this year, you would probably only win the world series 1 out of 6 or 7 trips to the playoffs. Find me a team that hasn't lost 3 straight games this year. The cubs just happened to do it at the worst possible time. Before all of us Cubs fans take that step off the ledge we've been standing on, think about this... the Braves made 15 straight playoffs, 1 world series championship. When you put it like that 0 for 2 doesn't seem too bad. Even the great Yankees made it 13 times in a row and only won 4. I would say more than once the braves were the best team in the league. It just didn't work out in short series.

I do think they are on the right track. The best way to ensure you win a WS is to make the playoffs year after year. I think with Hendry and Pinellia, they are on the right track there.

The strange part is them getting swept twice in a row. I calculated that to be about a 1 in 66 chance that they would get swept back to back years. Since we are talking about 2 year stretches, thats 1 time 122 playoff appearances.

re: Ok and what spot is that?

5th behind Ramirez, who has become a reasonably high OBA guy.

Soriano would get more plate appearances with runners on base, and see fewer breaking pitches.

Note: I'm not saying this changes the 2008 result, I'm saying any guy who strikes out more than twice as much as he walks, is not the best leadoff option.
(Over his career he has nearly a 4-1 K/BB ratio.)

I have been a Cubs fan all of my life (46 yrs or as long as I can remember, and I do remember the collapse of 1969 when I was 7!!!).

Here are my frustrations/observations:
1) Soriano should NOT bat lead-off.
2) Soriano AND Ramirez have had horrible post-season's 2 years in a row.
3) How can a team get swept TWO years in a row?

Just curious, and not that the ultimate result would have changed, but did anyone else think the 3rd base ump screwed up 2 calls in a row in the first in Game 3?
The fair/foul call and then the tag out by Ramirez at third?
I guess the fair/foul could have gone either way, but Ramirez tagged that guy's elbow before he reached 3rd...............

Unless the Cubs can figure out a way to hit (as a team) in the postseason, I guess we'll just have to pray the pitching staff throws a shutout every game!!!

My Cubs FANtasy started here, when I had this guy's job over the summer (1969):

The big difference was, after day games, which all home games were back then, I would segue into Zeppelin, Jethro Tull or the Allmans. Something tells me this ole boy doesn't work that side of the street.