I know within 5 minutes

I need more than 5 minutes but I agree with you that is usually pretty easy to tell.  The way they play catch, the way they move, they way they look in the on deck circle and in the box.  

They have the most expensive pair of oakleys made perched on the bill of their hat.  Those are the players.

Plain and simple the answer is experience and observation.  When you do it long enough you "get it" as to what high level is.  You have to be exposed to it so you can pick the tiny things out like how they move, how they warm up and other things like that.  But when you have "it" then everyone can see it when you perform because you stand out.  It's obvious but to the person who is new to baseball they won't see the small things like those of us who are experienced.

The kid we had who got drafted a few years ago just stood out to me when I first saw him.  My first few days at my current school I had heard from some of the football coaches we had this kid but I had never laid eyes on him.  Well we were walking to the practice football field and went past the baseball field and I see this group of people in the outfield.  So I look at one of the football coaches walking with me and say "so that's him" and he asked me how I knew since I never saw him before.  All I could say was he just looked like a ballplayer.  Then he started warming up and the ball just jumped out of his hand with no effort and it just confirmed what I saw.  He was the real deal and this was when he was a sophomore.  I didn't get much accomplished that day in football because I kept trying to watch him throw.

When you know baseball you just know who the players are - you've seen it thousands of time.

We have a 2018 kid who is a top pitching prospect. He transferred in last year.  I can recall pulling up in the parking lot and seeing some kids throwing bullpens 300 feet away from me.  In one throw I knew that was the kid. The electric arm action stood out that much. 

I watched a high school game where I had never seen or read about either team. After an inning I asked if a particular player was the best player on the field. The player hadn't fielded a ball yet or hit. It was just the way the player carried himself, threw the ball around after outs and led the team. There was also a borderline confidence/arrogance in the way he carried himself. With pitchers it's the "you can't touch me" air of confidence.

If you've coached long enough can't you see a player in three swings, three fielding attempts, three throws and the way he carries himself? Sure a player can have a bad day. It's why you may see him twice. But even on a bad day that player will carry himself a certain way that makes you want to return for a second opinion.

This was actually discussed in a different topic awhile ago.  Something about picking out players as they got off the bus.

I agree that you can see a player for 5 minutes and get interested in that player.  For sure you can watch a pitcher for 5 minutes and evaluate him fairly accurately.  Though it will take longer than that to figure out how he compares to other talented pitchers.  However when it comes to position players, I don't think it is possible to evaluate them with any accuracy in 5 minutes.  I have seen many with perfect bodies, carry the self like a Big League All Star, and really look the part.  Then see how well they run, field and throw, and everything looks good.  Then watch them hit and realize they can't hit a lick.

So you can get very interested in a player just watching the way he walks and carries himself,  but once you start gluing in on him and see him perform, that initial interest can leave just as quickly as it came.

Then there are some you would never get interested in right away.  But after watching them for awhile they start shining bright.  In case no one has ever noticed, there are a lot of Major Leaguers that don't look like Major Leaguers.  Some could walk right past you and you would never guess what they do for a living.

Anyway, I agree that certain players are easy to pick out of a crowd.  But if you do that for a living, you would end up making some pretty big mistakes at times.

PG ... I believe on the level you typically see players there's such a fine line between levels of talent. What I was describing was a typical high school game. The kids with the "top cock walk" tend to stand out at a high school event. 

I know a kid like you're referring. The kid was a polished poster boy for how  a ball player should look and walk. When he took the field he was a disappointment relative to the expectations. The kids on the team didn't care for him. They called him "Big League." The kid was perfectly packaged right down to the wristbands. But he had a horrible attitude (thought he was awesome) and the talent was nowhere near how he carried himself.

A couple of weeks into the showcasing season the coach removed the kid from the team and refunded his money. He realized he had been fooled.

Sure, some scouts/coaches can pick out some of these guys in 5 minutes....no brainer  But the exceptional coach/scout can find that diamond in the rough that nobody else sees....that is the guy who knows what he is doing.   My sons have played with a couple players like this....the runt of the litter on their travel teams that turned into those diamonds in the rough.

One kid we know was the last player on his national level travel team to commit to a D1 college.  He was lucky to get a D1 scholarship very late in the Fall of senior year because nobody took a flyer on him despite being seen by many hundreds of college coaches.  Many of us who watched him play everyday over a couple years knew he had great hands, quick feet and a great attitude.  He is the kind of kid you could not strike out yet the travel coach always batted him 9th behind all his "5 minute" studs who had committed their junior and sophomore years in high school.   This kid took off in college and he is now playing professionally in AA.  Nobody else from that national travel team is playing professional baseball today.  That college coach saw something that no one else saw because those coaches/scouts were focused on the 5 minute studs that turn heads.  As always, JMO.

I was at my son's game a couple weeks ago.  Went over to the "other side" to talk to a friend whose kid played for the opponent.  A couple of the pitchers from the opponent were behind the backstop charting pitches with a gun.  They were relaying the MPH over to a kid in front of me with their fingers.   I saw it and started calling the pitch speed before the guys told them.  I called 85, 86, 86 all dead on 3 pitches in a row.  The kid in front of me about flipped.....lol.   Maybe I've seen too much baseball 

I was at a 14u practice with Blake Rutherford and while I noticed he was hitting 300' in BP while others were maxing out at 250-275' I didn't take him for a future first round draft pick. Watched a JV summer game where Hunter Greene ( first round next year? ) was playing, granted he was 1-2 years younger than the other players but he struggled as much as anyone. Pitched well for his age. So I think it takes more than 5 minutes, or I'm just too harsh a judge!

It depends on the pool of players around him...but I agree with you for in a typical HS pool.

I would bet a lot of money that if you lined up a HS tryout (60 player) at SS and hit them one grounder and they made the throw to first most could pick out 12 players that would beat the remaing 48 in most games.  

PGStaff posted:

This was actually discussed in a different topic awhile ago.  Something about picking out players as they got off the bus.

I agree that you can see a player for 5 minutes and get interested in that player.  For sure you can watch a pitcher for 5 minutes and evaluate him fairly accurately.  Though it will take longer than that to figure out how he compares to other talented pitchers.  However when it comes to position players, I don't think it is possible to evaluate them with any accuracy in 5 minutes.  I have seen many with perfect bodies, carry the self like a Big League All Star, and really look the part.  Then see how well they run, field and throw, and everything looks good.  Then watch them hit and realize they can't hit a lick.

So you can get very interested in a player just watching the way he walks and carries himself,  but once you start gluing in on him and see him perform, that initial interest can leave just as quickly as it came.

Then there are some you would never get interested in right away.  But after watching them for awhile they start shining bright.  In case no one has ever noticed, there are a lot of Major Leaguers that don't look like Major Leaguers.  Some could walk right past you and you would never guess what they do for a living.

Anyway, I agree that certain players are easy to pick out of a crowd.  But if you do that for a living, you would end up making some pretty big mistakes at times.

PG, can you tell the difference between "can't hit a lick" and "haven't been taught to hit very well yet"? It seems this would be the tough decision when coaches see these type of players. 

PWPW,

IMO, natural ability is something I always look for.  Whether it is fielding, throwing, or hitting the most important thing to me is natural ability.

One of the very best shortstops I saw last year would consistently field ground balls on the wrong side of his body.  But his feet, soft quick hands and instincts stood out like a sore thumb.  He obviously was never taught certain things.  It was all natural ability.  Teaching him to field the ball correctly would only make him that much better.

IMO hitting a baseball is also a natural ability.  We see lots of hitters that do everything right and they can't hit.  We see some that do things wrong, but yet they can hit in spite of it.  If you teach the player with natural ability how to do things right, he becomes that much better.  

Now regarding the players that do NOT look the part.  These guys need to be seen a lot.  Seeing them once could be a forgettable experience unless they do something extra special that day.  That is why so many outstanding players slip through the cracks.  

There was a small outfielder from Chicago who wasn't extra fast, didn't have the greatest arm, didn't hit for much power.  But he was one of the best baseball players I saw that year.  In fact, he ended up being the MVP in one of our biggest and best tournaments.  

Had he just stayed in town and played HS ball he probably would have played at a small college in Illinois.  But he played on every big stage possible and people got to see him a lot.  After awhile nobody cared about his size and the other things, everyone knew just how good he was.  He then was recruited by Arizona State and ended up playing (starring) at U of Texas.  A college All Americam I believe and then he was drafted.

I'm sure some of you can figure out who I'm talking about. Last name starts with a P.

Here is the player I was referring to above.

http://www.perfectgame.org/pla...Events.aspx?ID=67005

I think he is the the Yankees now. At Texas he set an all time NCAA record, something like a hundred straight games he got on base.  In his first full year in the minors he led the league in on base percentage.  Don't be surprised if he makes it to the top.

Definetly couldn't have picked him out of a crowd as being a top baseball player on any team he was on. Let alone the best player on that team.  He would just grow on you the more you saw him.  He was and is a better player than his size or his tools (they are good but not great) would ever dictate. He is a true baseball player!

PGStaff posted:

Here is the player I was referring to above.

http://www.perfectgame.org/pla...Events.aspx?ID=67005

I think he is the the Yankees now. At Texas he set an all time NCAA record, something like a hundred straight games he got on base.  In his first full year in the minors he led the league in on base percentage.  Don't be surprised if he makes it to the top.

Definetly couldn't have picked him out of a crowd as being a top baseball player on any team he was on. Let alone the best player on that team.  He would just grow on you the more you saw him.  He was and is a better player than his size or his tools (they are good but not great) would ever dictate. He is a true baseball player!

Here's a question that I think would be interesting to know the answer to: out of the hundred and hundreds of MLB players who have been through a PG showcase, what percentage of them did not rate a 10.0? (I saw that Payton was a 9.5 -- not too shabby -- and it got me thinking)

There are a lot, I would have to look that up.

I do know of some that were graded fairly low, like 6 or 6.5.  

Then there are some that we graded low the first time we saw them, but ended up grading them much higher when we saw them again later.

Over all, I think we have been accurate, but we have also been proven wrong at times.  Truth is, I love it when a player proves us wrong.  It's just good to know that some have the makeup and work ethic to do great things and they are going to prove it.  It's also a good reminder that we are not perfect and can always improve.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Pla...vents.aspx?ID=118888

http://www.perfectgame.org/Pla...rofile.aspx?ID=39003

You don't know within five minutes.  Maybe you can identify the best player at your high school or the best player in your area but you just don't know.  Physical maturity along with stats are often confused with talent at the lower levels.  I've had five minute guys pushed in my face in little league, jv's, high school, college, and the pros.  LeBron James and Bryce Harper are five minute guys but most people will never see them until they are already famous.  The ugly duckling can become the swan.  The tortoise can beat the hare.  None of that speaks to five minutes. 

PGStaff posted:

There are a lot, I would have to look that up.

I do know of some that were graded fairly low, like 6 or 6.5.  

Then there are some that we graded low the first time we saw them, but ended up grading them much higher when we saw them again later.

Over all, I think we have been accurate, but we have also been proven wrong at times.  Truth is, I love it when a player proves us wrong.  It's just good to know that some have the makeup and work ethic to do great things and they are going to prove it.  It's also a good reminder that we are not perfect and can always improve.

 

Oh, heck, I wasn't thinking of it in terms of you being wrong -- I was thinking of it in terms of "So you're telling me there's a chance?!"

during son's recruiting process, ACC Pitching Coach stated all he needed to see was 3 pitches and he could tell if he was interested in a player or not. 

ClevelandDad posted:

You don't know within five minutes.  Maybe you can identify the best player at your high school or the best player in your area but you just don't know.  Physical maturity along with stats are often confused with talent at the lower levels.  I've had five minute guys pushed in my face in little league, jv's, high school, college, and the pros.  LeBron James and Bryce Harper are five minute guys but most people will never see them until they are already famous.  The ugly duckling can become the swan.  The tortoise can beat the hare.  None of that speaks to five minutes. 

Totally agree CD.

BTW...I did see Bryce when he was 11 years old at Cooperstown during Champiobship week when previous championship teams are invited back.  He won the home run derby against very talented 12 year olds.  He was a beast then and is a beast now.  He put on a show.  Definitely a 5 minute guy as far as the talent goes.