Identifying pre-teen players who will go far

MOM- Read closely to what people are saying. They are saying, everything being equal, bigger athletes get the nod. They are bigger, stronger, and (very important) more durable. Pro baseball is a grind. Guys wear out. Also, do you understand that taller pitchers have a built-in advantage because of their release point being higher than a shorter pitcher? Tougher angle- harder to hit.

To close, let's reiterate the key phrase, EVERYTHING BEING EQUAL. Of course there are plenty of great players who are not big guys. That said, there is a reason two major league MVP's, Jimmy Rollins and Dustin Pedroia ( I had the good fortune of coaching both) were both 2nd round picks instead of 1st round picks. They are 5'8 on a good day and history shows that bigger guys are a safer bet. It works THAT way!

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Originally posted by LHPMom2012:
I understand why. I'm just not sure I believe the conventional wisdom behind it. The implication is that height is a causative factor for baseball ability, or atleast a correlating factor. So in other words, we could line up all MLB players, tallest to shortest, and find a correlating decrease in batting average and increase in errors. For pitchers, the taller they are, the smaller their ERA. But I don't think it works that way.

LHPMom

I think size becomes more a factor if you're dealing with pitchers and outfielders. Pedrioia being a second baseman can get away with being small but to try and make it as a major league outfielder at 5-7 might be a stretch.

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Originally posted by 3FingeredGlove:

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Originally posted by RJM:
I don't have any idea what you mean.

Really?
See your second post in this thread, in which you argued that selection to a LL all star team is "where you start" in finding the pre-teen player who will go far, and that any sufficiently talented player will have made his all star team.

My previous emotican-marked post was just poking fun, and pointing out that selection to LL all stars really isnt't a useful criterion for the subject of this whole thread.

You either misunderstood or took the post out of context. That was a response to "Where are you going to find the preteen kids?" (in our area) IF you're going to attempt to judge preteen players. In this thread I've also posted a majority of preteen studs fail by high school.

Nobody is perfect, but there are plenty of guys that have been around the game for a long, long time that can recognize a few basic tools and conclude that a preteen has a good chance to play beyond HS.

Most people on this board know the five baseball tools and 3 of them are definitely god given. Arm strength, speed and power can be refined and improved ever so slightly once a kid is mature, but you were either born with those tools, or you were not. BA and fielding can be improved with a ton of reps but some can simply do it better than others, regardless of work ethic so to me those two tools are god given as well because of the hand eye factor.

Without bringing in the controversial parent height/weight matrix into the mix, I don't think its tough to look at a preteen that has a strong arm and assume it won't get stronger with maturity, or a kid with off the charts pop with a nice compact swing to still be hitting the ball hard 5 years down the road as he gets stronger. Speed is tricky because I have seen slow preteens turn into burners as maturity sets in, but they were still born with it. I haven't seen many fast preteens end up slow though either unless they just got fat. When I use the word preteen, I simply mean a kid that has NOT hit puberty. We all have seen the 11 year old early developed kid dominate our local LL fields without a single viable baseball tool, simply because he was bigger, stronger and faster than the rest. I'm not talking about that kid. I'm talking about the kid who's ball comes off the bat different than the rest or simply throws harder than everyone effortlessly. I'm talking about the kid that makes plays consistently that most kids might make 25% of the time. Many parents get all jazzed up because their kid will make one unbelievable play, or hit that one wind blown home run and don't consider the "sunshining on a dog's arse" concept. Its about consistency and you'll see it even at an early age.

Baseball tools are baseball tools and are relavent regardless of age. I'm sure I'll get bombarded with "what about desire, heart, will level" and those are important, but I think they are absolutely impossible to project beyond next week with preteens.

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Arm strength, speed and power can be refined and improved ever so slightly once a kid is mature

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I don't think its tough to look at a preteen that has a strong arm and assume it won't get stronger with maturity, or a kid with off the charts pop with a nice compact swing to still be hitting the ball hard 5 years down the road as he gets stronger.

I've seen several of these kids physically peak at twelve or thirteen and be utility players by high school, or not make the team. Aside from physical development another key factor is how they adapt to the 60/90 field. I've seen plenty of kids talented preteens get as far as high school and not work hard enough to get past high school ball. Until kids hit the big field I don't believe they're worth evaluating.

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Originally posted by RJM:
Aside from physical development another key factor is how they adapt to the 60/90 field. Until kids hit the big field I don't believe they're worth evaluating.

As far as the references to adapting to the bigger field, our kids played 50/70 tourneys and 60/90 league games at 12 yrs old and did very well in both. The only difference I noticed was we weren't hitting the ball out of the park on the big field at 12 and some kids on opposing teams who were flame throwers from 50' were getting pounded at 60'. The kids who knew how to pitch were very effective at either distance. The kids on our team who did well on the small field are the same ones doing well on the larger fields. Maybe this isn't the norm.

I don't think you judge a pre teen player on size. I think it is relatively easy to spot the early puberty kid at 12 yo and see if he is succeeding on talent or his advanced maturity.
I also think you can see the talented kids at 10-12 and project that he can be a productive high school player if he chooses to work on his baseball talent.

Just about every player in son's hs team was in the top half of his respective LL all star team. There are one or two surprise kids who were not on the all star team but for the most part the same kids who were playing into July with the rec all stars are the same kids playing hs baseball. This is a large, single town high school with almost 3000 students.

I agree that not many will play in college. That is much more difficult to predict from LL. But my experience is that the best LL kids have been the best HS kids. This takes into consideration about 6 graduating classes from 2006-2011.

I firmly believe you can identify pre-teen players who will go far. I remember in tee ball several 5-6 year old players stood out. When they reached the very competitive coach pitch division, many dads in the stands talked about the ones that were clearly ready for the next level... kid pitch. During tryouts these elite players attained amazing SPARQ scores, certainly the highest in memory at our small rural town. These same players became first ballot allstar players as they advanced to the minor division. The marginally skilled players washed out by 12, choosing individual sports like skate boarding or moved to lame sports such as s****r.

Eventually, the hard throwing pitchers were rewarded with endless innings of meaningless travel ball. The manchild 13 year old displayed his hitting talents by pounding 300 foot blasts with his ultra hyped and ultra expensive bat. Mom and dad were more than happy to sacrafice the family vacation in pursuit of the $5 plastic trophy at distant Super National Tournament. SO YES YOU CAN IDENTIFY WHO WILL GO FAR...its the kid with better than average talent and at least one obsessed parent.

Signed,

One Obsessed Parent,
thats doing it different with the second time around

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Originally posted by DG:
I firmly believe you can identify pre-teen players who will go far. I remember in tee ball several 5-6 year old players stood out. When they reached the very competitive coach pitch division, many dads in the stands talked about the ones that were clearly ready for the next level... kid pitch. During tryouts these elite players attained amazing SPARQ scores, certainly the highest in memory at our small rural town. These same players became first ballot allstar players as they advanced to the minor division. The marginally skilled players washed out by 12, choosing individual sports like skate boarding or moved to lame sports such as s****r.

Eventually, the hard throwing pitchers were rewarded with endless innings of meaningless travel ball. The manchild 13 year old displayed his hitting talents by pounding 300 foot blasts with his ultra hyped and ultra expensive bat. Mom and dad were more than happy to sacrafice the family vacation in pursuit of the $5 plastic trophy at distant Super National Tournament. SO YES YOU CAN IDENTIFY WHO WILL GO FAR...its the kid with better than average talent and at least one obsessed parent.

Signed,

One Obsessed Parent,
thats doing it different with the second time around

You have them at 13U. That's not far. That's the beginning. It's the first year on the 60/90 field. The discussion is about predicting preteens who play college or pro ball. The only "going far" any of these kids have accomplished is in a car or a plane to a tournament.

And watch it with the s0ccer comments. My son is an all-conference s0ccer player.

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I also think you can see the talented kids at 10-12 and project that he can be a productive high school player if he chooses to work on his baseball talent.

Going far is college and/or pro ball. That's where the conversation started.

fills .... were you aware of this? I came across it tonight. Is this the Blue or the Gray? Our head coach said we would play about 25 games other than tournaments. I guess this is part of it.

DelVal Baseball Conference
2009 16U Mickey Mantle
Team Name

Pine Hill
Waterford
Diamond Kings
Whiz Kids
All Star Baseball
Stratford
Holy Cross
Tri-State Arsenal
Glendora
Pennsville

To try and predict what kids would make college or pro ball in elementary school is almost impossible.

However, I do know one player that I figured would go far because his dad used to remind us all the time. It was a baseball family obessed with the sport. The dad was kind of a baseball kook. We got the bone chart stats on how he was gonna grow to 6-8 etc even though dad was about 5-9 and mom about 5-5..He played on the finest select teams, got professional coaching thru youth ball, played games and trained on 60/90 as an 11 yr old with an older brother. But in fairness, with the tens of thousands of dollars they spent on academies, select teams and equipment, he did become a well polished ballplayer.

He did make it to the D1 level on a scholarship and should have a solid college career. As a six-foot pitcher, not quite 6-8 predicted..

In my estimation, these are the only types of players anyone has a shot on predicting they will make it far in baseball as a little leaguer.

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I'm talking about the kid that makes plays consistently that most kids might make 25% of the time. Many parents get all jazzed up because their kid will make one unbelievable play, or hit that one wind blown home run and don't consider the "sunshining on a dog's arse" concept. Its about consistency and you'll see it even at an early age.

How true...How often do you see a kid make an make a spectacular diving catch in the outfield when it should've been a fairly routine play. IMO, a real outfielder won't have to make too many diving or spectacular plays because he will routinely be able to read the ball off contact and get in position to make most plays.

IMHO,

This is the dumbest thread I've read in a long time. We would be just as successful with a crystal ball. Until these young players are 15 or 16 you don't know squat about their ability to go to the next level.

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Until these young players are 15 or 16 you don't know squat about their ability to go to the next level.

And sometimes even later than that. Some young men have not even reached their stride at 15-16. Many it takes until 17-18, 19-20 if they are lucky to get that far. I agree, I have seen tons of kids who were 12 and huge and strong , people predicted them to be all that and a lot of them are not even playing.
baseball is a game that shows improvent in sometimes small increments.I never forget the fact of the kids who are steady work horses through out the entire process who develop in to fine college players. Dustin Pedroia I am sure was not projected at 12, 15-16.

fanofgane- I saw Pedroia and got to coach him a little when he was younger. I could tell you right then that he would make it. Kids like Pedroia are wired differently. They have "it".

There are some that, after a while of observing, you have a good idea they will make it. Some you don't know. Some just jump out with greatness.

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Originally posted by fanofgame:

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Until these young players are 15 or 16 you don't know squat about their ability to go to the next level.

And sometimes even later than that. Some young men have not even reached their stride at 15-16. Many it takes until 17-18, 19-20 if they are lucky to get that far. I agree, I have seen tons of kids who were 12 and huge and strong , people predicted them to be all that and a lot of them are not even playing.
baseball is a game that shows improvent in sometimes small increments.I never forget the fact of the kids who are steady work horses through out the entire process who develop in to fine college players. Dustin Pedroia I am sure was not projected at 12, 15-16.

How do the kids at the latin american academies get drafted at 16 if you cant project before then?

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Originally posted by lodi14:
How do the kids at the latin american academies get drafted at 16 if you cant project before then?

Because they are really 22.

Good one

The guy that owns the training faciltiy we go to was cut from his HS freshman team. He continued to work hard and eventually went to on to play pro ball. So you just don't know.

RJM..Sarcasm,get it? My son plays college ball and my good friend is on the NY Yankees roster, so don't lecture me about what it takes to go far I have seen what it takes. The young man on the Yankees never played travel ball and my son is undersized. Just about every phenominal 13 year old travel ball kid I knew has washed out by the time they were 20. Again, you just don't know how far they will go when there a preteen.

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Sarcasm,get it?

It crossed my mind. But I wasn't sure. That's why I posted .......

"The only "going far" any of these kids have accomplished is in a car or a plane to a tournament."

It was my version of sarcasm. I think we're on the same page.

it is a known fact that the bigger kid with[ equal talant]to a shorter kid wil get more chances,more looks from scouts.a pitcher by far will have that edge everything else will go by who has more skills.to anybody that thinks that is not true stop kidding yourself.howmany pitchers in the big league are under 6 feet.......

wow, i am happy to hear that because my son has been over looked in other sports (not baseball) and he is big. maybe, for once he'll get his shot.

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howmany pitchers in the big league are under 6 feet...

On the current National League rosters there are 55 pitchers that are 6 foot tall or under. There is a very large number that are 6-foot-1. I didn't have time to check the American League.

People really need to understand something. Size is a plus, no doubt about it! However, talent is much more important than size. When they decide who to move up, they don't just automatically move up all the tall guys.

Why is it so important to some (on this site) to keep telling kids they're too small and they don't stand a chance. Especially when there are so many great players and pitchers who are/were not big!

Someone mentioned size=talent on a different thread. I have seen many real big kids that lack talent. Size=Size!

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Why is it so important to some (on this site) to keep telling kids they're too small and they don't stand a chance. Especially when there are so many great players and pitchers who are/were not big!

What do you look at when evaluating a 12 year old for future potential. Before I go on, let me say that accuracy before age 16 is very iffy.

For me, the first item is innate ability. Foot speed, throwing velocity, eye hand coordination, size, etc.

Good height, large shoe size, and big hands before the onset of adolescence are good signs. But only if accompanied by the above. I ask about the size of the mother's brothers and the height of the father. A family history of baseball after HS is a plus.

For those in early adolescence see if your doctor will give you growth charts for kids to measure their height and weight percentiles. Check their ankles to see how high the coarse leg hair goes. None is best.

Even with all of this, it is pot luck. It isn't that the, "elite" team coaches are any smarter. They just have a better pool and a lot of mature kids to pick from.



Then come the intangibles. Mental toughness, work ethic, coachability.

Interesting thread so tell me where does this boy end up?

13 years old 7th grade, plays 14U Major for a top 50 team nationally.

Shoe size 13.5, long big hands and fingers, lanky right now at 6'1 1/2 142..... 8ft 2 inch reach

Pitcher, throws some curves, mostly change-up fast ball and knuckles, locates well and hits 75-76

I have been told by two doctors he will hit 6'5 has wild desire for the game, loves it and loves playing against older kids.

Have been told by three college coaches and 3 ex-pros his upside is great...one ex-pro wants to promote him starting his freshman year....

Numbers for 14u Major team...19 innings, 27 k's 7 walks , hit two batters, picked off 5 runners, 1 wild pitch.

Now having said this, if he does not continue to work hard he will not go any where....BUT what he has already been blessed with will get him more opportunities than smaller players......that's my take, he has great upside, if he stays injury free and works his tail off.

13 is not preteen but he is going to get some looks. How physically mature is he? Ultimately it will come down to innate ability. His speed is OK but not spectaacular. It is just too early to tell. You can get a pretty good read at age 16.

Why does a pre teen need to be identified?

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Why does a pre teen need to be identified?

Good question.

"Why does a preteen need to be identified?"

Why does a preteen need to go to a showcase?

Same answer. They do not. What a kid accomplishes on the small diamond is of no consequence and every year we see elite and all stars fail on the full sized diamond.

While we are at it, going to pitching coaches falls into the same category. You cannot buy innate ability and that is where it is.

Obviously a preteen does not need to be identified in any sort of scouting sense.

He does need to be identified in order to encourage him to move towards playing opportunities that will help him develop his potential. Even when a kid is talented and self-motivated, you too often see a kid fail to get the right instruction.

In our area there is no middle school baseball. To develop, you need to get with a team with coaches who instruct the fundamentals and who imbue competitiveness and respect for the game. I don't know how many of these travel teams I see -- run by dads or run by ex-pros or both -- that fail the kids they supposedly serve.

Not that a kid can't recover from that, or overcome that. But life is easier when you get it right the first time.

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Originally posted by TRhit:
Why does a pre teen need to be identified?

Only because the original poster asked.

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Not that a kid can't recover from that, or overcome that.

In general kids destined to go on in the game do so in spite of their coaching rather than because of it.

"Daque His speed is OK but not spectacular"

I beg you to find 25 13 year olds throwing 75.....constistantly in a game...I have seen some 14's but not may 13's Everyone I have ever know inflates the speed

but anyway that's ok, the speed will come, the location, movement and knowledge of how to pitch, means more than speed.

Age 13 is a big change year in bodies. Some 13 year olds look 16 and others look 11. How old does this kid look? That is how I would judge his velocity. It is all academic until we can see how is is doing 3 years from now.

The reason you can't predict what preteen player is going to "make it", is not because you can't see his talent, its because life is going to get in the way.

He looks like a 15-16 year old.

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He looks like a 15-16 year old.

In that case, I would evaluate his pitching velocity as though he were that age. But remember it may be an exercise in futility until is is that age.

I think we need to focus on command and control, not that he does not have it, but he is growing so fast that we have to keep going back to it.

I think increase in speed will come as he gets stronger. I know I need to slow down a bit with him as he is not 16-17 but rather 13-14

we are going to finish out the summer schedule then take a rest from throwing....work on core strength and then this fall start a long toss, weight program.

I have been told he needs to go to his first show case after his freshman year, just to get a feel then go back and work some more his soph and jr years.

You can also tell by his body that he is going to grow more....started to go through puberty, but has no signs of hair on his ankles, and still looks thin...I need to put weight on him.