Just my opinion but you can't really tell how big a person is or where they are at in their muscle maturity level just by noticing whether they have hair here or there.
When I was in the 7th grade I had hair everywhere- thick dark hair- everywhere except for my face of coarse. I weighed 125 and was like 5'2". I didn't start getting my facial hair until I was 18 and didn't start to shave really until I was 20. Now I am just shy of 5'11" and weigh around 200. My neighbor down the street who is now in the 9th grade has had facial hair since he was 13 years old, he has since grown 6 more inches and put on a lot more weight (muscle) and is still maturing. We do not know how much facial hair or ankle hair one will have as a grown adult, but I doubt one could accuratly calculate height and strength merely off of how much hair they have in certain areas of their bodies at a certain age.
Me and my older brother grew at the same exact rate until we were both juniors in HS, then I stopped growing and he grew 7 more inches. Who really knows until its all done and said.
Some adults have hardly any hair while others have tons. Some adults have large ankles and waists and are short while others of the same size are really tall. Others have little ankles and waists and are really short while others the same size ankles and waists are really tall. Some people grow in equal proportions whil others legs or arms stop growing but their backs continue to grow longer and wider.
My other brother who is 5 inches taller than me wears the same size of shoes and the same exact pant size. His back and arms are considerably longer than mine though.
Predictimg height and muscle maturiy before they are done growing is like going to an fortune teller- the palm reader may even be more correct!
Lets take the size aspect aside and go with the kids with natural talent. Those kids can make it into HS, but if they are lazy (grades and working out), they will be outworked at the college level. I'll use a local kid we've know since LL. Was always bigger, not necessarily taller, had great hand-eye coordination and he stood out in the crowd. Got picked to every All Star team (dad had no influence or coached) went to the National Pitch, Hit, and Run contest, numerous travel teams, WWBA, Jupiter, Area Code, etc. However he did not take HS grades seriously, nor did he have the "passion" for the game, the willingness to outwork the competition but instead leaned on his natural abilities. He finished HS with one college offer, and continues to play summer ball, yet he spends all his free time playing. Wonder why the other kids are passing him by? He is one of the lowest on the team in BA, yet does he work on getting better, no.
NCBall knew kids who are now in the Big Leagues, he knew they were special then, but what did they do differently (work ethic) than the others? I'll put my bottom dollar the parents of the boys who made big D1s, and or the pros can attest it wasn't due to just natural talent, but a willingness and passion to be the very best they could be. And did they spend most of their free time goofing off, video games, hanging out, etc?
NCBall knew kids who are now in the Big Leagues, he knew they were special then, but what did they do differently (work ethic) than the others? I'll put my bottom dollar the parents of the boys who made big D1s, and or the pros can attest it wasn't due to just natural talent, but a willingness and passion to be the very best they could be. And did they spend most of their free time goofing off, video games, hanging out, etc?
Of course there are items that are important beyond superior innate ability. But it is what gets you looked at. No matter how refined skills are, without superior innate ability you are not going far.
Work ethic, a passion for the game, and mental discipline are all critical. By the time a player is at a D1 school, everyone on the team has innate abilities and the differnce makers are those items just listed. If you happen to make it to the pros, another item comes into play and that is the ability to hit with a wooden bat.
Another topic on this board talked about the role of travel and/or rec ball. There it was discussed that no matter how refined your coaching made your skills, further advancement beyond HS depended on innate abilities.
It is unfortunate that there are kids playing youth ball who have the innate ability but were never pushed, never developed the passion, never developed the mental side of the game. Baseball never went beyond recreation in their mind, never became a tool of life. What good are the five tools is you never learned or cared to use them?
In my opinion, development of the mental side of the game is the most neglected part of the youth baseball experience. Kids at age 12 are still having temper tantrums on the field, still pitching their batting helmet, still blaming team mates, and still crying when striking out. All of this is due to a deficiency in coaching and parental leadership.
Work ethic, a passion for the game, and mental discipline are all critical. By the time a player is at a D1 school, everyone on the team has innate abilities and the differnce makers are those items just listed. If you happen to make it to the pros, another item comes into play and that is the ability to hit with a wooden bat.
Another topic on this board talked about the role of travel and/or rec ball. There it was discussed that no matter how refined your coaching made your skills, further advancement beyond HS depended on innate abilities.
It is unfortunate that there are kids playing youth ball who have the innate ability but were never pushed, never developed the passion, never developed the mental side of the game. Baseball never went beyond recreation in their mind, never became a tool of life. What good are the five tools is you never learned or cared to use them?
In my opinion, development of the mental side of the game is the most neglected part of the youth baseball experience. Kids at age 12 are still having temper tantrums on the field, still pitching their batting helmet, still blaming team mates, and still crying when striking out. All of this is due to a deficiency in coaching and parental leadership.
quote:There it was discussed that no matter how refined your coaching made your skills, further advancement beyond HS depended on innate abilities.
Yes this was discussed in an earlier thread. You failed to mention it was completly disproven.
quote:You failed to mention it was completly disproven.
I must have missed the, "completely disproven" part. People shared conflicting views but I saw no proof posted.
Daque still pushing you views ?
I don't have hair everywhere except on my head. I used to tell people I was that much further removed from the ape.
I don't have hair everywhere except on my head. I used to tell people I was that much further removed from the ape.
An assertion was made and I challenged it. My post was civil which is more than you can accurately assert. Why get testy unless you have no debate of merit?
I have no agenda to push. I could care less if you know anything. This post of your reveals you to be what I am convinced you are. If you want to get into a verbal piddling contest I guarantee you will get wet.
By the way, I believe that you only have hair on your and none on you a** but most likely on your palms too.
I have no agenda to push. I could care less if you know anything. This post of your reveals you to be what I am convinced you are. If you want to get into a verbal piddling contest I guarantee you will get wet.
By the way, I believe that you only have hair on your and none on you a** but most likely on your palms too.
Kind of funny !!
It seems you are the testy one.
It seems you are the testy one.
I tried to have a civil discourse with you but you feel threatened and go to insults. I am glad you stopped it for now and will inssulate myself from you by placing you on my ignore list along with one other.
It is unfortunate that we cannot stick to the merits of the discussion. Adios.
It is unfortunate that we cannot stick to the merits of the discussion. Adios.
Would you please point out where I insulted you. I did say you haven't been around great teams and that is shown by the fact that you didn't know any of the teams I mentioned. Your comments show a disdain for elements of competitive BB teams including coaches.
I think you have an internal Battle going on in your head.
I believe you that you don't care what I know or anyone else for that matter.
I think you have an internal Battle going on in your head.
I believe you that you don't care what I know or anyone else for that matter.
Daque is the latest incarnation of Ramrod, Pic, The Eye, and llorton, which is notroll spell backwards........
Maybe you should try nocixel next Daque.
And, by the way, nice try hanging with the youngsters, so none of the old timers would notice.
I've been letting it go until you got to your normal civil discourse post.
Nothing he likes better, BHD, than an intellectual never ending argument with a fence post.
Maybe you should try nocixel next Daque.
And, by the way, nice try hanging with the youngsters, so none of the old timers would notice.
I've been letting it go until you got to your normal civil discourse post.
Nothing he likes better, BHD, than an intellectual never ending argument with a fence post.
I was always more interested in the dad's size and the size of the mother's brothers.
Observer: It reads as though you believe I am someone else posing as this name. Not so. I avoid arguing and stick to debating. I have had this user name on Infosports, eteamz, and ASMI for years. As an email name since 1998.
Perhaps my style is similar to those who you have named. I have sensed a degree of hostility on the board as well as closed mindedness. I have put two such people on my ignore list.
If you, and others, choose to give consideration to my posts which differ from your core beliefs, that is fine. I am not asking you to accept anything. I merely give observations from my many years as a youth coach for your consideration.
A board is for an exchange of ideas, observations, and acquired knowledge. I have learned in recent days the differences in baseball in the USA, Canada, and here in Mexico.
In any event, it is all academic. Take what I have to offer if you wish or not but please do not denigrate your posts with personal attacks. It serves to lessen the quality of your posts.
Perhaps my style is similar to those who you have named. I have sensed a degree of hostility on the board as well as closed mindedness. I have put two such people on my ignore list.
If you, and others, choose to give consideration to my posts which differ from your core beliefs, that is fine. I am not asking you to accept anything. I merely give observations from my many years as a youth coach for your consideration.
A board is for an exchange of ideas, observations, and acquired knowledge. I have learned in recent days the differences in baseball in the USA, Canada, and here in Mexico.
In any event, it is all academic. Take what I have to offer if you wish or not but please do not denigrate your posts with personal attacks. It serves to lessen the quality of your posts.
quote:If you want to get into a verbal piddling contest I guarantee you will get wet.
QUOTE]
[QUOTE]I have no agenda to push. I could care less if you know anything. This post of your reveals you to be what I am convinced you are. If you want to get into a verbal piddling contest I guarantee you will get wet.
By the way, I believe that you only have hair on your and none on you a** but most likely on your palms too.
Daque so true . It does denigrate a post.
it is interesting to note that after running his mouth Former Observer failed to respond to either my post above or a private message. Maybe he choked on his humble pie? Perhaps he should return to being a former observer rather than a current one.
quote:I was always more interested in the dad's size and the size of the mother's brothers.
Daque interesting, I always heard parents size...why the size of Mother's Brothers?
I've always told mine to tell the coaches I'm his step dad, his real Dad is 6'5".
I am not a geneticist but somewhere heard that physical size runs on the mothers side. True or not, I have not a clue. If it is true then one would expect that the the size of the maternal uncles would more accurately reflect what was coming. It has seemed to be true from my anecdotal experiences.
Another pearl of wisdom was that, all other things being equal, the boy will attain a height about 8 inches more than his mother. I have no experience with checking this one out.
Another pearl of wisdom was that, all other things being equal, the boy will attain a height about 8 inches more than his mother. I have no experience with checking this one out.
I have been out scouting HS kids for many years and coaching them as well. Its not very hard to pick out the kids with the tools that stand out. Speed , arm strength , physical size and strength , power , fielding ability etc etc. Thats the easy part. The tricky part is picking out the ones that can actually play the game and have the work ethic , discipline , passion for the game and the ability to deal with the adversities of the game. Its very easy to look the part when your tools allow you to dominate kids your age. How will that same kid handle being in an environment where everyone is just as talented and some are more talented than he? Will he be willing to work to improve? How will he handle failure? The list goes on and on.
I have seen so many kids with outstanding tools that are outstanding at standing out in a showcase environment that can not take those oustanding tools and translate them to game success. I have seen many kids that will not wow you with their numbers at a workout but will kick your butt day in and day out in a game situation.
Your tools will get you noticed. Your ability to take the tools you have and put them to use actually playing the game will dictate what type of success you actually have playing the game. Just because a kid looks the part , runs well , throws well , drops bombs in bp does not mean he is a player. And just because a kid does not look the part , does not run as well , does not throw as well etc does not mean he is not a player. What it means is the first kid is going to have to prove he can not play and the second kid is going to have to prove he can play.
Getting to the next level - you have to have enough talent. But how much talent? Some kids have a ton of talent and will never make it at the next level. Some kids have just enough talent and kick your butt at the next level. They are gamers and they have the intangibles needed to do just that. Of course there are kids with outstanding tools and they have the intangibles as well. But just because you have those tools does not mean you can play this game. And just because your tools do not knock off someones socks does not mean you can not play the game at a level high enough to be very successfull playing it.
The lazy way to scout , recruit , select players etc is to go on the things that can be measured with a stop watch , radar gun , tape measure etc. You end up with a nice looking team. The right way is to work hard enough and spend the time needed to see the things that can not be measured along with the things that can be. Pre teen players that stand out are just pre teen players that stand out. They are just as likely to not stand out when teen players as they are to likely to stand out.
I have seen so many kids with outstanding tools that are outstanding at standing out in a showcase environment that can not take those oustanding tools and translate them to game success. I have seen many kids that will not wow you with their numbers at a workout but will kick your butt day in and day out in a game situation.
Your tools will get you noticed. Your ability to take the tools you have and put them to use actually playing the game will dictate what type of success you actually have playing the game. Just because a kid looks the part , runs well , throws well , drops bombs in bp does not mean he is a player. And just because a kid does not look the part , does not run as well , does not throw as well etc does not mean he is not a player. What it means is the first kid is going to have to prove he can not play and the second kid is going to have to prove he can play.
Getting to the next level - you have to have enough talent. But how much talent? Some kids have a ton of talent and will never make it at the next level. Some kids have just enough talent and kick your butt at the next level. They are gamers and they have the intangibles needed to do just that. Of course there are kids with outstanding tools and they have the intangibles as well. But just because you have those tools does not mean you can play this game. And just because your tools do not knock off someones socks does not mean you can not play the game at a level high enough to be very successfull playing it.
The lazy way to scout , recruit , select players etc is to go on the things that can be measured with a stop watch , radar gun , tape measure etc. You end up with a nice looking team. The right way is to work hard enough and spend the time needed to see the things that can not be measured along with the things that can be. Pre teen players that stand out are just pre teen players that stand out. They are just as likely to not stand out when teen players as they are to likely to stand out.
quote:it is interesting to note that after running his mouth Former Observer failed to respond to either my post above or a private message.
You are correct.
I did not respond.
And, I am still observing..........
quote:Pre teen players that stand out are just pre teen players that stand out. They are just as likely to not stand out when teen players as they are to likely to stand out.
Meaning it is too soon to tell which is my position with more words.
quote:And, I am still observing..........
Pretty good policy instead of apologizing for your rant when you are wrong.
We'll see.
quote:
I've always told mine to tell the coaches I'm his step dad, his real Dad is 6'5".
LOL.
I hope Zacks coaches don't look at me either as I am his stepdad.
Mom is 5'9" his worthless biological father is 6'5".
Daque, if you missed the posts that disprove your theory, perhaps you should go back and reread the thread.
You have stated your "thoughts on the subject" and any reasonable person who reads the threads including posters seem to disagre with your thoughts.
Continually writing the wrong thing does not make it true,
You have stated your "thoughts on the subject" and any reasonable person who reads the threads including posters seem to disagre with your thoughts.
Continually writing the wrong thing does not make it true,
quote:Continually writing the wrong thing does not make it true,
I once had a professor who asked the class what it meant if everyone disagreed with him on a particuclat point. Various classmates opined that it would mean that he was wrong. He replied, no, it would just mean that you are all wrong.
Then again, it was Adolph Hitler who noted that if you tell the same lie often enough it will be accepted as the truth.
Take your pick.
I do not know what issue you are talking about and so cannot respond on topic. If you tell me where I was disproven I will happily review my position and comment further.
GapFinder: Twice in this thread you have made the allegation that I have been disproven on some point or points. Twice I asked you to reference this proof and twice you have not responded. Put up or shut up.
Hi Everyone~
This is my first post - so go easy on me!
I realize that there are many opinions on the subject but I thought I'd share my personal story to give hope to any "smaller" kids out there.
My son is a catcher and has been for 6 years (2 on a travel "B" league team). He is 13 and has not begun puberty yet, He is 5'2" and 115 lbs. (Doctor projected him from xrays to be 6'2").
Our HS Varsity coach saw him at a travel team tryout last fall and told his father and I to get him out of our town. He said that he had talent above and beyond his age and needed to move on to better opportunities. He signed with an "A" travel team (the highest 13U level we have here). His team signed 4 catchers, all of them bigger than my son. One is even 5'10" and bats an unbelievable .615 (literally).
To make a long story short, my little scrap*y son beat them all out for a starting position as catcher. My son has the inate abilities that many above have mentioned. He also has a mental grasp on the game that is wise beyond his years. He is a 4.00 student in honors classes (if that matters). His coach is even letting him call a decent amount of pitches in regular and tourament games. He has also played up to 14U for 2 games and was completely fine on the 60/90.
He has been scouted at tournaments this year by other teams for fall ball and for next year. We repeatedly keep hearing about his superior defensive skills. Various umps and coaches are telling us that he is "arguably the best defensive catcher in the area" (even better than 14U's and 15U's). He is only a base hitter (NOT a power hitter) and bats around .350 with 1 K on the season. He has a decent strong arm (NOT amazing - probably due to his small size) but it is extremely accurate and effectively controls the running game. His FP is 1.00 over 2 consecutive seasons. He also is super fast on the bases.
To make another long story short, he just attended Tier I of the USA National Team Tryouts. The scouts there kept commenting that our son was obviously professionally trained (meaning through the MLB camps and coaches). He has not been. Actually his dad was his coach for the past 5 years. He just has the skills (but practices ALOT). They also commented that he has a perfect pure swing and they clocked his 60 yd at 6.8 sec. We have been blessed so far. He absolutely loves the game and is very self-motivated. We are praying that he goes far.
I just wanted to share our story to give some hope to the smaller kids out there. If you have the skills and determination you can beat out the big boys! I do realize that size and bats usually win out at this age - but you never know who could be the exception. Good luck everyone!
P.S. In terms of predicting - this seems very strange - but my son's t-ball coach had him sign 6 authentic MLB baseballs for him to save since "he knew he'd be something someday". He could barely print his name then. One of the balls even has a spelling error and a letter scratched out! So we'll have to wait and see how well he predicted!
This is my first post - so go easy on me!
I realize that there are many opinions on the subject but I thought I'd share my personal story to give hope to any "smaller" kids out there.
My son is a catcher and has been for 6 years (2 on a travel "B" league team). He is 13 and has not begun puberty yet, He is 5'2" and 115 lbs. (Doctor projected him from xrays to be 6'2").
Our HS Varsity coach saw him at a travel team tryout last fall and told his father and I to get him out of our town. He said that he had talent above and beyond his age and needed to move on to better opportunities. He signed with an "A" travel team (the highest 13U level we have here). His team signed 4 catchers, all of them bigger than my son. One is even 5'10" and bats an unbelievable .615 (literally).
To make a long story short, my little scrap*y son beat them all out for a starting position as catcher. My son has the inate abilities that many above have mentioned. He also has a mental grasp on the game that is wise beyond his years. He is a 4.00 student in honors classes (if that matters). His coach is even letting him call a decent amount of pitches in regular and tourament games. He has also played up to 14U for 2 games and was completely fine on the 60/90.
He has been scouted at tournaments this year by other teams for fall ball and for next year. We repeatedly keep hearing about his superior defensive skills. Various umps and coaches are telling us that he is "arguably the best defensive catcher in the area" (even better than 14U's and 15U's). He is only a base hitter (NOT a power hitter) and bats around .350 with 1 K on the season. He has a decent strong arm (NOT amazing - probably due to his small size) but it is extremely accurate and effectively controls the running game. His FP is 1.00 over 2 consecutive seasons. He also is super fast on the bases.
To make another long story short, he just attended Tier I of the USA National Team Tryouts. The scouts there kept commenting that our son was obviously professionally trained (meaning through the MLB camps and coaches). He has not been. Actually his dad was his coach for the past 5 years. He just has the skills (but practices ALOT). They also commented that he has a perfect pure swing and they clocked his 60 yd at 6.8 sec. We have been blessed so far. He absolutely loves the game and is very self-motivated. We are praying that he goes far.
I just wanted to share our story to give some hope to the smaller kids out there. If you have the skills and determination you can beat out the big boys! I do realize that size and bats usually win out at this age - but you never know who could be the exception. Good luck everyone!
P.S. In terms of predicting - this seems very strange - but my son's t-ball coach had him sign 6 authentic MLB baseballs for him to save since "he knew he'd be something someday". He could barely print his name then. One of the balls even has a spelling error and a letter scratched out! So we'll have to wait and see how well he predicted!
So are you defending little kids as players or that they will grow? My son was 5'2", 115 in 13U. He's 6'1", 175 finishing his junior year of high school. It's great your son has accomplished what he has so far. But a lot can happen in both directions between now and high school. "THE" 13U stud when my son played USSSA 13U Majors isn't a stud in high school.
Just to add-
There is always that story about how big stud Johnny was projected to be the next major leaguer but then sucked in high school and also the story about little skrawny Timmy who sucked until his junior year of HS and now has a professional contract in the majors. But truthfully, most of the talent can be seen fairly early and be projected to some degree of proficiency. We have been doing this in the area where I live and I have personally seen it over the course of about 8 years and the kids projected early on as being potential studs later on have pretty much all gone on to meet that standard. Kids who had bad swing mechanics at 12 went on to have those same bad habits all the way through high school while others with great mechanics went on to have fabulous HS careers and some even on to college. The same it is with projecting pitching prospects at an early age- it happens all thetime where we live. there are a few unseen surprizes- there always are, but generally speaking, by the time kids start puberty at aroung 11-12 you can see the attributes that will either lead to their demise or their success later on.
There is always that story about how big stud Johnny was projected to be the next major leaguer but then sucked in high school and also the story about little skrawny Timmy who sucked until his junior year of HS and now has a professional contract in the majors. But truthfully, most of the talent can be seen fairly early and be projected to some degree of proficiency. We have been doing this in the area where I live and I have personally seen it over the course of about 8 years and the kids projected early on as being potential studs later on have pretty much all gone on to meet that standard. Kids who had bad swing mechanics at 12 went on to have those same bad habits all the way through high school while others with great mechanics went on to have fabulous HS careers and some even on to college. The same it is with projecting pitching prospects at an early age- it happens all thetime where we live. there are a few unseen surprizes- there always are, but generally speaking, by the time kids start puberty at aroung 11-12 you can see the attributes that will either lead to their demise or their success later on.
I was really not defending anything in particular. I guess I was just trying to give hope to the kids that are smaller at the 13U age level. I realize that you won't ever see a pro player at 5'4" tall. So for future performance, yes you have to grow.
It's just that so many coaches here say you have to have size and the bat to make it at a higher 13U level. I do realize that is the norm, but just wanted to show the rare story in case it may inspire even one more kid to follow his dream.
I also do agree that kids with certain skills can be detected early. I'm not saying that someone can't come into their own later or end up a complete bust.
I just thank God every day that my son can play another day and hope that someday he'll achieve his dream!
It's just that so many coaches here say you have to have size and the bat to make it at a higher 13U level. I do realize that is the norm, but just wanted to show the rare story in case it may inspire even one more kid to follow his dream.
I also do agree that kids with certain skills can be detected early. I'm not saying that someone can't come into their own later or end up a complete bust.
I just thank God every day that my son can play another day and hope that someday he'll achieve his dream!
BaseballMomOfMH - welcome to the hsbbweb! What people say or don't say about your son is unimportant in my opinion. The only thing that matters is that he loves the game and continues to progress because of his love for it.
Gingerbreadman - I disagree with you. Major league scouts are only right about 50% of the time with 18 year old players in the first round of the draft yet you can project 11-12 year olds with clarity? There is a self-fullfilling prophesy to some of this stuff and projections do more harm than good imho. PGStaff talks all the time about how he viewed his own kids. The son he had the lowest opinion ability wise ended up pitching in the big leagues. If someone like that could be wrong about his own kid...
I believe you know what you know and in Idaho that may be the way things work out. In my experience, those that wanted to project youngsters this age often discouraged kids from progressing in the game and often had ulterior motives. Some kids don't blossom until after high school. In my experience, the people who said they could project always projected their own kids highly and often projected other kids to a lessor extent. Parents should stay out of the projection game because it is meaningless at that age and it also is harmful because it can discourage kids from developing down the road.
I guess I am sensitve to this issue. I had a parent/coach tell me he was moving my son (12 years old at the time) to second base (from shortstop) because he would never have the range to play shortstop at the high school level. He said he was doing him a favor by making the change now. Of course, the replacement at shortstop was his son
In 9th grade, when daddy-ball officially ended, that other guy's kid never got off the bench and saw his career end in 9th grade. My son started at shortstop on two state championship teams, started in college as a shortstop on a top 20 D1 team, and started in the pros as a shortstop. In my experience (not suggesting this about you), projection (at the younger ages) is a code word for stifling competition and fueling out-of-control egos.
Gingerbreadman - I disagree with you. Major league scouts are only right about 50% of the time with 18 year old players in the first round of the draft yet you can project 11-12 year olds with clarity? There is a self-fullfilling prophesy to some of this stuff and projections do more harm than good imho. PGStaff talks all the time about how he viewed his own kids. The son he had the lowest opinion ability wise ended up pitching in the big leagues. If someone like that could be wrong about his own kid...
I believe you know what you know and in Idaho that may be the way things work out. In my experience, those that wanted to project youngsters this age often discouraged kids from progressing in the game and often had ulterior motives. Some kids don't blossom until after high school. In my experience, the people who said they could project always projected their own kids highly and often projected other kids to a lessor extent. Parents should stay out of the projection game because it is meaningless at that age and it also is harmful because it can discourage kids from developing down the road.
I guess I am sensitve to this issue. I had a parent/coach tell me he was moving my son (12 years old at the time) to second base (from shortstop) because he would never have the range to play shortstop at the high school level. He said he was doing him a favor by making the change now. Of course, the replacement at shortstop was his son
In 9th grade, when daddy-ball officially ended, that other guy's kid never got off the bench and saw his career end in 9th grade. My son started at shortstop on two state championship teams, started in college as a shortstop on a top 20 D1 team, and started in the pros as a shortstop. In my experience (not suggesting this about you), projection (at the younger ages) is a code word for stifling competition and fueling out-of-control egos.
Ginger is making the mistaken perception I often hear. I'll clarify my view of the world based on the perception. The mistake is while most of the best kids in high school, college and beyond were the best players in their preteen years, it does not mean being one of the best as a preteen means the player will be good by high school, college and beyond. There's a talent funnel. Many skilled preteens don't fit through the funnel by high school.
Occasionally there's an unspectacular kid who gets it together in his teens. A chubby spaz in my LL was a 6'2", 210 catcher by high school. His senior year of high school his coach was desperate for another pitcher. The little spaz became a 6'4", 230 SEC pitcher. He was a major college catching prospect until then. He had the thrill of being on the mound to clinch an American League pennant.
CD's son probably had the cultivatible talent all the way. There was an obstacle (daddyball) in his way for a while.
The one thing I learned is there's no sense getting all worked up about the journey and how great your kid is. By the time they get to showcase ball there are so many good players, no matter how good your kid is, chances are there will be days when he blends in with the crowd. I told my son no matter how good he thinks he is in high school, I told him there are thousands just like him looking for a college roster spot. It's starts being about attitude and hustle. Everyone has the talent.
Occasionally there's an unspectacular kid who gets it together in his teens. A chubby spaz in my LL was a 6'2", 210 catcher by high school. His senior year of high school his coach was desperate for another pitcher. The little spaz became a 6'4", 230 SEC pitcher. He was a major college catching prospect until then. He had the thrill of being on the mound to clinch an American League pennant.
CD's son probably had the cultivatible talent all the way. There was an obstacle (daddyball) in his way for a while.
The one thing I learned is there's no sense getting all worked up about the journey and how great your kid is. By the time they get to showcase ball there are so many good players, no matter how good your kid is, chances are there will be days when he blends in with the crowd. I told my son no matter how good he thinks he is in high school, I told him there are thousands just like him looking for a college roster spot. It's starts being about attitude and hustle. Everyone has the talent.
quote:just wanted to show the rare story in case it may inspire even one more kid to follow his dream.
I disagree that this is a 'rare' story. There are lots of undersized players thriving in HS and beyond.
Size is just an excuse others use against you. My son was a relatively small 12u and thus played 2b...now as a rising senior he's 6'2"+, 190+ playing SS...last year somebody offered that they thought he was 'too big' to play SS....guess how big their kid is and where they think he should be playing....
Anyone who looks at size at the prepubescent level is an idiot. All kids mature differently. Some are mature at 14, others don't make that final push until 16 or 17, some even later.
You have to look at the talent level based upon the actual size of the kid to know what he can do at the high school level. A kid that plays the game the right way, plays multiple positions and plays 'older' than his stated age is one to watch. I've seen plenty of smaller kids that are absolutely phenominal to watch. They may not be the big dinger hitters but they are extremely tough outs, they play just about anywhere and they show up to play every game.
You have to look at the talent level based upon the actual size of the kid to know what he can do at the high school level. A kid that plays the game the right way, plays multiple positions and plays 'older' than his stated age is one to watch. I've seen plenty of smaller kids that are absolutely phenominal to watch. They may not be the big dinger hitters but they are extremely tough outs, they play just about anywhere and they show up to play every game.
Just to clarify my position..
I was making a generalization for who would be good up through HS and perhaps going into college, or having that ability to play in college- generally speaking, the majority of the good HS ballers were good in their pre-teen years and were projectable up through HS at that time. Like I said, this is not a rocket science at that level (not talking about projecting "pro" level quality), just easy to generally project the kids who will be good up through HS and perhaps into college.
Not saying we should ever give up on the smaller or less talented kids- they too have a shot, just saying that in "general" you can project 11-12 year old studs to also be studs up through HS and perhaps into college- not all the time but most of the time. And yes- there are always those few surprizes of kids maturing early or late and either being a disappointment or a nice surprize- you can't certainly pick them all.
I coach and I tell you what- I look for good fundamentals in kids and play them and teach them accordingly correcting bad habits in everyone. I am a firm believer in helping out most those who put forth an honest above and beyond effort- I LOVE those kids- they are teachable, humble and realize that they aren't studs and need to improve. In my mind, they already are studs!
I was making a generalization for who would be good up through HS and perhaps going into college, or having that ability to play in college- generally speaking, the majority of the good HS ballers were good in their pre-teen years and were projectable up through HS at that time. Like I said, this is not a rocket science at that level (not talking about projecting "pro" level quality), just easy to generally project the kids who will be good up through HS and perhaps into college.
Not saying we should ever give up on the smaller or less talented kids- they too have a shot, just saying that in "general" you can project 11-12 year old studs to also be studs up through HS and perhaps into college- not all the time but most of the time. And yes- there are always those few surprizes of kids maturing early or late and either being a disappointment or a nice surprize- you can't certainly pick them all.
I coach and I tell you what- I look for good fundamentals in kids and play them and teach them accordingly correcting bad habits in everyone. I am a firm believer in helping out most those who put forth an honest above and beyond effort- I LOVE those kids- they are teachable, humble and realize that they aren't studs and need to improve. In my mind, they already are studs!
This my first post. Does size matter? Take a look at the UCLA Cal. State Fullerton Super Regional this weekend. The starting 3rd base stud that Cal State Fullerton has listed at 5'6 140lbs (more like 5'5 135lbs) It's how you play the game, not the size that matters. If you have both more power to you, if not give me the the little scrapper that can play any position over the big lug any day.
It is tricky to try to identify kids that will move up the baseball ladder, given both differences in maturity and the move from the small to the big field. My own son is now 14, but he has never been especially athletic and is also a late developer. But when he was 9 or 10 one of the dads in out LL that pitched for UT said he had a knack for pitching and that he could benefit from some instruction.
Because he doesn't have a blazing fastball, he has had to pitch smarter, using mostly a two-seam, change and (recently) a pretty decent curve and tries to exploit hitters' weaknesses. Lacking that heat, he hasn't been ridden as hard as bigger kids that developed earlier. But because he has pretty good control, he is usually the one sent to the mound to get the team out a jam.
Funny thing is, he seemed to have an easier transition to the big field (with the exception of base running) than more athletic kids. For him, the game seemed to slow down. Right now he is playing in a PONY Colt/Palomino league against mostly 15-18YO's. Not select players, but representative of what he will see in high school. So far he is having no problem being competitive.
So how can an unathletic, late-developing kid be successful? He has a good feel for the game, and rarely makes errors. Doesn't get down on himself when he fails, and has that short-term memory that lets him put mistakes behind him. Doesn't show emotion. (Some observers would call that a lack of passion.) When he steps up to the plate, he never doubts he will hit the ball. Some studs fall short because they lacking the intangibles, which can be tough to identify and even harder to project.
How far will he go? Who knows? He told me recently that he would like a carreer in baseball as a player. Effective pitching would probably take him as far as college - maybe not D1, but on some level. But I always thought he would make a better coach or manager, as he can "see the whole field" and picks up details that most players and some coaches miss. Baseball is a game of probabilities and numbers - a math problem where the best players and managers arrive at the correct answer the soonest.
I am going to encourage him to help coach a LL team in the fall to get a taste of that aspect of the game.
John
Because he doesn't have a blazing fastball, he has had to pitch smarter, using mostly a two-seam, change and (recently) a pretty decent curve and tries to exploit hitters' weaknesses. Lacking that heat, he hasn't been ridden as hard as bigger kids that developed earlier. But because he has pretty good control, he is usually the one sent to the mound to get the team out a jam.
Funny thing is, he seemed to have an easier transition to the big field (with the exception of base running) than more athletic kids. For him, the game seemed to slow down. Right now he is playing in a PONY Colt/Palomino league against mostly 15-18YO's. Not select players, but representative of what he will see in high school. So far he is having no problem being competitive.
So how can an unathletic, late-developing kid be successful? He has a good feel for the game, and rarely makes errors. Doesn't get down on himself when he fails, and has that short-term memory that lets him put mistakes behind him. Doesn't show emotion. (Some observers would call that a lack of passion.) When he steps up to the plate, he never doubts he will hit the ball. Some studs fall short because they lacking the intangibles, which can be tough to identify and even harder to project.
How far will he go? Who knows? He told me recently that he would like a carreer in baseball as a player. Effective pitching would probably take him as far as college - maybe not D1, but on some level. But I always thought he would make a better coach or manager, as he can "see the whole field" and picks up details that most players and some coaches miss. Baseball is a game of probabilities and numbers - a math problem where the best players and managers arrive at the correct answer the soonest.
I am going to encourage him to help coach a LL team in the fall to get a taste of that aspect of the game.
John
Hay, this is a great article you have written, but i just have one thing to add. You can measure every element of a ball player except for one, which turns out to be the most important one, his heart for the game. There is no way you can play 162 games a year if you don't have a heart for the game. Like you said, once in a while we see a great player rising up, I have seen some of these players myself, but, if this guy isn't taking the game seriously, then all the other players will catch up to him skill wise and then he will just be another player. So, I close by saying, you can teach a kid everything there is to know about the game, but, he himself has to develop his own love for the game.
quote:Originally posted by 3FingeredGlove:quote:Professional scouts are wrong, what, 95% of the time in picking Major Leaguers? People that think you can pick how a kid will turn out are very conceited.
I pulled this from another thread because it gives me a jumping off point to meander around and finally express an unpopular opinion.
Professional scouts do a lot better than 5% correct, where I define correct as the drafted player eventually played in MLB. Each year roughly 1500 players are drafted, and over the course of the next 6-8 years, about 100-135 of those players end up in the show. I'm only counting those who signed out of that draft, and not a subsequent draft after attending college. That’s 7 to 9%, but a more realistic measure of correctness is how the scouts did with the players picked in the very early rounds. I took years 1997-2000, and tabulated the first two rounds, including the supplemental picks. There were 186 players picked in the first round of those 4 drafts, and 105 of those have played in MLB. For the second round, the corresponding numbers are 55/125. So in the first two rounds, the success rate was slightly better than 50%.
The pro scouts aren’t the only guys who can predict which players will succeed. These days, most draftees are actually drafted out of college, and Perfect Game had already rated them 3 or 4 years earlier, while they were still in high school. Turns out that PG has a very good idea of who will succeed when the players are in their junior or senior year of high school.
Now, what about younger players? Clearly it is harder to pick out the ones who will make it to MLB as we move away from HS upperclassmen towards underclassmen, and then to (shudder) pre-teen players. But I think that there are two or three dozen people in the USA who can pick out the players who have the talent and mental makeup to go far in baseball, even at 11 or 12 years old. Sure, some of those talented players will end up playing different sports, or getting injured, or just get sidetracked away from sports in general, so the accuracy won't be as good as the pro scouts. The guys I have in mind are the coaches or managers of elite travel baseball programs, that have years of experience in watching young players, with new kids coming in every year, and then following them over time. The more perceptive of these managers and coaches learn over time to recognize the traits shared by the eventually successful pre-teens.
Yet most posters on this site (certainly including me) have no chance of accurately identifying the pre-teen kids who will succeed in baseball. There are, IMO, 2 reasons for that. First, we don't spend a decade or more learning and revising our criteria as wave after wave of kids come through a program. In fact, darn few of us have a program, which is very different than running a team. Secondly, most of us have had minimal opportunity to even see kids who do have the requisite qualities.
For example, several posters here have commented that it is impossible to tell who is going to be good later on, and reference their son's Little League as evidence. (Here LL means LL and Ripken and Pony, etc.) However, a quick calculation shows that most of us have seen very few pre-teens who are budding college players. There are about 500,000 boys playing LL per birth year. Eventually, of that birth year, about 1500 or so will get drafted, and perhaps 5000 will enroll in the top 350 colleges and JCs. So one in a hundred will make it to one of the better colleges. A typical LL has 50 boys of the same birth year. So when we parents compare players in our LL, trying to figure out which ones will make it in college, the odds are that (except, of course, for our own sons
There are some folks posting here (justbaseball comes to mind) that have spent years running rec programs. Maybe they've seen a couple of dozen pre-teen players who ended up playing college ball. It's still a small sample size from which to learn to predict who will be successful later on.
The guys running long lasting elite travel programs, where a third or more of the 12 year olds end up playing college ball, have seen enough talented players to form a basis for judging. I think that some of them learn to predict well. Actually, I know two or three who can.
I read a stat somehwere that 1-2 kids from every HS team every year on average, will get to play either pro baseball or college ball or both.
That might be about right, with emphasis "on average." Bigger schools may have 4 to 6 play college ball, smaller schools none. 1a and 2a schools in Texas may have trouble finding enough kids to fill a roster, and don't have the local organizations that metro areas have where kids can develop skills.
Frankly. most high school teams are short on pitching - and that goes for the bigger schools as well. Suppose that's why you see high school aces ridden like $10 mules in post-season tournaments. Largely a function of the geographic limits on their prospective player pool. By the time kids are 15 or 16, it's hard to make a pitcher out of them if they haven't pitched at least some over the previous seasons, and most coaches don't have the time to develop additional ones. (Especially true of smaller programs.)
John
Frankly. most high school teams are short on pitching - and that goes for the bigger schools as well. Suppose that's why you see high school aces ridden like $10 mules in post-season tournaments. Largely a function of the geographic limits on their prospective player pool. By the time kids are 15 or 16, it's hard to make a pitcher out of them if they haven't pitched at least some over the previous seasons, and most coaches don't have the time to develop additional ones. (Especially true of smaller programs.)
John