"If you are good enough, they will find you"

It depends on how good is good.

If you're from a small town and you're good enough to play NAIA baseball will the right school find you? Probably not.

If you're good enough to be drafted in the first half of the first round will they find you?
Guaranteed.

Like I have said many times. If your good enough they will find you. As long as you dont mind who finds you.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach_May:
Like I have said many times. If your good enough they will find you. As long as you dont mind who finds you.

"As long as you don't mind who finds you." The key I would think.

workinghard,

These type questions are not hard to answer, but if someone didn't know me, they might think I have every reason to slant the truth.

Oddly enough, I've been working on an article for our website that touches on this subject. It will give many examples regarding the question... If you are good enough will they find you!

In some cases it is actually true, but that leads to other “W” issues besides WILL they find you, like...

WHEN will they find you?
WHERE will they find you?
WHO will find you?
WHY will they find you?
WHAT will they find?
WILL they find out enough?

WHY WAIT if you’re truly good enough? WOULDN’T it be better if everyone knew about you, rather than just a few? It’s true that sometimes it only takes one to like you, but isn’t it better if they “all” like you? The more options a player has, the more well known a player is, can create many more opportunities. If you’re good enough, they “will” all like you!

Research what the top high school draft picks have done. Then you will see that nearly every one of them did not wait for someone to find them. Find out how many just stayed home and waited to be found. Yes, they were found and that created the opportunity to attend Perfect Game events, WWBA events, Area codes, East Coast Pro, USA Baseball, and to be on top travel teams. Then that becomes where the whole scouting and recruiting world gets to see them. There is a reason why all those big events are scouted so heavily… The scouts and recruiters are there to “FIND” prospects!

Anyway, I work slowly so it might take a little time to finish that article I mentioned earlier. When it is done, I hope someone here links to it. We deal with many Major League Scouting Directors and I can’t tell you how many times they will admit that their scouting department “missed” someone. Unknown players who would have been drafted out of high school had they been found… Becoming first round picks out of college. They know this exists, so what about the outstanding talented high school player missed by the colleges, or just didn’t cut it in college, or didn’t go to college, or got hurt before anyone noticed him?

To think they never miss a player is simply untrue! We found one last year that was a college basketball player who pitched about 9 innings all year on the baseball team at a DIII college. No one knew who he was, but after one event, and with no background he was drafted last year. Before attending that one event... No one had found him and they weren't going to find him.

The problem is that some take it for granted they are all found. They point to certain Big League players as an example. Heck, that’s easy… They didn’t miss those guys and everyone knows it. Now try to name the guys they missed… Who are they?... Can’t name them, so I guess they just weren’t good enough?... You can’t name the guys who were missed because… They were missed…. We don’t know who they are! But there is plenty of reasons to know they exist!

This is not a PG promotion! Players don’t have to go to our events to be found. But most need to do something other than just sitting around waiting to be discovered. You can’t become a “high profile” type until most everyone that is a decision maker knows who you are. It’s a big world out there, there are more colleges than the one next door. We’ve seen kids walk on at local colleges when they had big scholarship talent elsewhere. We’ve seen kids get big scholarship offers from the local college only because other colleges around the country were making good offers.

That’s enough for now! But I could go on forever with hundreds of “real” examples from coast to coast. Many of those running the top travel team “club” programs around the country have seen some of these examples. They understand that more options can be extremely beneficial.

Besides all that, we think our most important job is to find talented players. We have the largest scouting staff in all of baseball. Yes many more than any MLB club. And we still miss some players every year!

I have said that many times but the first time I heard it was from the father of a outstanding pitcher who had a tremendous college career and now is in milb.

You can limit your options or you can seek to expand them. If you take the road "If your good enough they will find you" then your leaving it up to chance that first of all someone will find you and secondly it will be the right choice for your son. If you are proactive in seeking out opportunities you will give yourself more options and more choices.

PG,
Could you post a link to the article on the pitcher who was still throwing gas at 50 or so years old. The one who didn't play pro ball.

The thread should be changed to "if you are great they will find you". This is true, however we are talking about very very few kids in this category.

Everyone else needs to find someone to help find them.

I once believed the statement but found it to not be true. The statement above about being found if you're drafted in the first half of the first round of the draft is much closer to reality.

Chances are if a kid is a jaw dropping stud almost everyone will find him. The rest of the players won't get exposure outside their immediate area without showcases unless they're playing with or against the jaw dropping stud. There are also players (and their parents) who don't look outside their little world. They think they're studs only to find out too late they aren't when compared to the baseball universe.

I did hear until Mark Rogers from Orrs Island, Maine (pop: 200) attended a couple of showcases a few years ago, he was headed for UMaine. Afterwards he was headed for UMiami had he not been the fifth pick in the draft.

When Rogers pitched in the state championship game his senior year against the high school comprised of many of the previous year's Legion national champions (including Ryan Flaherty/first round supplemental in 2008) the game drew 8,000 at the home of the Red Sox AA team.

The problem to me is that a lot of people don't realize what being "found" means. Everything that PG talked about is the gospel in terms of attending the high profile stuff. Even if you are a low end player - NAIA or D3 - you still have to put yourself out there and probably more so than the high end players. I know in my 9 years as head coach and all the other years that I've been an asst. in baseball and football most parents and players don't have a clue. They either think the HS coach can pick up the phone and get a scholarship or the scouts just automatically know where to go. That is so far from the truth that it leads to players being missed.

It's like selling a car - if you live out in the sticks with very few people around you and you put a "for sale" sign in the window and park it in the driveway you won't get many people asking about it. But if you put it in trade n sells, car publications and internet ads then the number of people who may want to buy your call goes up.

If you step foot on a baseball field anywhere there is a chance you may be found but it's going to be very slim and it might not be the place you want to go. Your talent level might be good enough to go to a bigger / better school but you never know because you limited your opportunity.

But if you go to showcases, camps and play on good teams then your chances go way up because you advertised your talents.

Quick story (although it might not be) - One year when I was head coach my school was between two schools that each one had phenomenal players. We played the school to the east of us first and they had a kid who was throwing around 91 - 92. During the game there were about 7 or 8 MLB scouts there and he had a great game against us. After the game I was talking to one of the scouts and asked him about this other player at the school to the west of us. He said he had never heard of him.

We played the team to the west and nobody was there to watch him. He was a legitimate player who finally ended up at U of Louisville and was Big East frosh of the year.

The point I'm trying to make is the pitcher to the east of me put his name out there a little more. He knew this guy who ran a baseball business that was really connected and he was able to get his name out there more than the kid to the west. I'm not saying the kid from the west sat at home because he did play on a pretty good summer team but just that in itself was not enough to get his name out there enough.

You got to remember - as a player you don't want to hide from these people so you got to do whatever you can to get in front of them. Even then you still might NOT be seen by the right person.

BOF,

Probably the most important talent a scout can have is his ability to project talent. To predict how good that player will be in 4 or 5 years or even after that.

If the above means anything, even some of the greatest of players were in fact missed or easily could have been missed to some degree. Stephen Strasburg was not unknown when he was a high school pitcher. I personally heard some scouts talking about the things he lacked. Now just a few years later he is talked about as the greatest draft prospect ever.

I guess you could say they didn't miss him, but he went undrafted out of high school and he was throwing in the 90s back then. No one predicted what was going to happen. Everyone missed on accurately evaluating Steven Strasburg! Even us!

Wonder what would have happened if Stephen didn't pitch in college for some reason? Is it pssible there could be others who didn't have things work out quite so well? Was Stephen Strasburg "found" or did he just shove it down everyone's throat?

Yes, he improved dramatically in college. Surely there are others who have or would have improved in college. Surely some who had the ability to improve in college but did not play in college and were not found.

Buster Posey was drafted in the 50th round out of high school as a small pitcher/shortstop.

Carl Crawford was a football prospect with amazing athletic ability. No one was overly excited in him as a baseball player until he showcased his baseball ability. Then he went with the first pick of the 2nd round.

Until his senior year Zach Greinke was a lower round type 3B that we even worked out as a catcher.

No one except Dewan Brazelton's HS coach and local people knew about him in high school. He ended up at Middle Tennessee locally and became a first rounder.

Absolutely no one had ever heard of Jason Berken when he was in high school, even Clemson, where he went to college. He pitched in the Big Leagues last year.

No scout knew who Zach Shreiber was in high school, even his eventual college "Duke" didn't know about him. He has spent lots of time in AAA.

Yes, these are the ones who ended up being "found". There are many others like them who weren't so lucky. You can now find them working at factories, policemen, firemen, construction, offices, etc. We can't mention them by name because no one ever found them! They are not household names because we don't know who they are. We just know they exist. Might even be a couple who post here for all we know!

CADad, Here is the story about Eddie who is reaching Social Security age. By the time they found him, he was too old! Ed Sawvell

Sticking my neck out but want to clear something up. This thread got started, IMO, by something I said which was

quote:

If your good enough they will find you. You do not need to transfer or let someone talk you into transferring. Make sure you play on team in the summer that is either high profile or that competes against the high profile teams. Also mix in some showcases.

I never intended for this to come across as don't do anything and sit back. My intention was to say that the kid does not need to transfer to another high school. Coaches all the time are trying to recruit kids to transfer to other high schools by saying they will never get seen at the school they are at. I want my players going to show cases and playing on scout teams, they face better talent. However, all I meant was the kid did not need to transfer schools to be seen.

RJM,

Mark became very well known once he started to show his ability to everyone.

Here is an even better example of a kid who became a first rounder (19th pick) out of Boston College. After both his senior high school season and starring in Legion ball, he had absolutely no college interest or offers and was not recruited. MLB Scouts didn’t even know who he was. He wasn't going to play baseball in college or ever again. Until one single highly scouted event after his senior year in high school he was headed to college to play “hockey”! I had to talk his dad into taking him to that event which changed his life forever. He ended up from being unknown by all in baseball to becoming one of those great ones who went in the first round. In one day he went from unknown to being the talk of the scouting community. And he was just as talented before all this happened.

I think everyone "needs" to read this 2004 Baseball America article written shortly after that event, it is an AMAZING story and it speaks volumes regarding this subject. Please be sure to read this one!
Last Chance

Quick Story...

Pro Scout comes to HS game that Junior is pitching in his senior year early in the season...Junior is unknown, scout is there to see opposing pitching who also is teams best hitter, very good 2 way player.

On the day, opposing pitcher gives up 7 runs, sitting 89. Junior throws a 4 hitter, striking out 14, sitting 89, including striking out opposing pitcher/best hitter 3 times. Found out later, scout never even wrote down Juniors name...he was just there to see the other guy. Not saying this is typical, but it does go against the, "if you're good enough, they'll find you", mantra.

BTW, opposing pitcher is now very successful D1 and was top 10 in USA most of last year in ERA as a soph.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
Probably the most important talent a scout can have is his ability to project talent. To predict how good that player will be in 4 or 5 years or even after that.

Very true, what about College coaches?

Many who read here wonder about the same question regarding them.

I know a player who met recently with the coach of a very high profile school, he was talking about early signings but it is relevant. I am paraphrasing, but he essentially said “you are just 16 and I don’t know where you will be at even one year from now, both academically and athletically. There is no way I can offer someone a position at this point in time, there are just too many variables”. This school was very selective and only takes the top academic and athletic kids, so they had two dimensions to worry about, but the point is the same, projecting is not easy, even one year let alone 4-5.

As a side note he also said that did not bring anyone in to redshirt them, everyone they brought in came in with the intent on playing.

This coach would have never known about this kid without him making first contact with the school. The coach did the background work after he was made aware of him and took the time to meet with the player, but there was no way this coach would have ever known about him without someone helping him.

There is a method to all this madness .....

First and foremost if your son is a high profile player rest assured THEY will find him. "THEY" being every summer coach, college coach, high school coach, showcase promoter, recruiting service, newspaper etc..... Each have an agenda that NEEDS (or at least wants) your son for their survival.

1. Now that parents have become "educated" to the recruiting process they are doing everything they can do to see that "their" son gets to play college ball (hopefully with a scholarship).

Sometimes they forget that:

2. College coaches are doing everything they can to located players with college potential that can help "their" program and their job security.

3. High school coaches are doing what they can to see that "their" players go on to play college ball. The recognition of having one of "his players" make it is huge.

4. Summer coaches are doing everything they can to see that "their" players go on to play college ball to boost "their" credentials and enhance their recruiting efforts of talented players next year.

5. Showcase promoters are doing what they can to see that "their" players go on to play college ball to boost their credentials and enhance their ability to draw the big name players in the future.

6. Recruiting services are doing all they can to see that "their" players get to play college ball to boost their credentials and allow them to compete for the talented players.

*Exposure is good ---- and expensive. Do what you can but you don't have to go overboard.

*The number of roster spots does not change. Roster spots are not dependent on how much money changes hands at showcases, summer teams or recruiting services. If the exposure process changes due to the economy, the number of roster spots will remain the same and the most talented players will fill those roster spots.

Fungo

Actually the number of roster spots has gone down slightly due to the economy.

PGStaff's contributions to the thread on spot on! In talking to a college coach last night about my child, it was mentioned that a lot of coaches know about her. Few have seen her. She won't receive significant interest until they see her. Then, the question is, how do we know which winter college camps she should go to and who are the most serious? Which one are interested? Who has he money? Who has the positon available? Again, PGSTaff's contribution is worth the read!

We've discussed this quote before, and its many failings.

Here are some things to consider:

If you're not out there playing, where exactly is it they're supposed to find you? In your backyard?

If you're playing only against your local competition, and not challenging yourself against the top competition on par with what you would face in college or pro ball, how the heck is anyone supposed to know how studly you supposedly are? Some lower level HS competition will see few pitchers above 80 mph. How is anyone supposed to know if you can handle the move up to 85-90 mph pitching, if they've never seen you face that level of challenge?

Someone says you throw 92 mph. Is the source considered credible by the college of your choice? Lots of people make inflated claims about their MPH. Most people cite a reading they claim they got on one pitch one time under ideal conditions. How is someone supposed to know what you REALLY throw in game situations? Are they supposed to chase you around the countryside in your 2-per-week HS games? What if they decide to pick someone else who made it easy for them to verify his MPH, maybe by going to a WWBA event where the scouts all were present already and where they and PG had guns trained on every pitch -- instead of taking you as the proverbial "pig in a poke"?

So what if someone finds you. Were you found by the school you want to attend? Were you holding enough cards that you were able to negotiate your best deal? I mean, suppose you got 25%. Should you have played the field, gotten the schools to compete for you, and wound up with maybe 60%? Or more? Almost nobody gets 100%, so college deals are all negotiated. Shouldn't you go into those negotiations with some sort of leverage, to avoid being taken advantage of?


Bottom line, the reasons for a qualified player to hit the travel circuit are legion. The quote in the thread title is nothing but an excuse for being lazy, maybe for saving money, maybe for the HS coach to ask you to give up travel ball for something else he wants you to do or to avoid anything that makes him feel like second fiddle. Anytime you hear anyone say this stuff, butt in and say, "Whoa, not so fast."

pg

my oldest played in the same high school league as chris. maybe "they" didn't know chris lambert, but the baseball people in nh did. he was a very good high school player. but in the early 2000's we weren't known as a baseball hotbed. there weren't very many "things" to do to be seen. baseball in NE has grown tenfold in the last 10 yrs, we do have some kids up here that can play.



in answer to the op. i guess it's to be assumed that in this post "they" are pro scout's ? as the father of a pitcher from a cold weather state. i've seen kids that throw 90+ get interest almost over night. the key is once "they" all watch, how many come back ?

quote:

When Rogers pitched in the state championship game his senior year against the high school comprised of many of the previous year's Legion national champions (including Ryan Flaherty/first round supplemental in 2008) the game drew 8,000 at the home of the Red Sox AA team.

---------------------------------------------------

his sr yr there was an article in the portland paper. he had something like 20k's that day in front of 15 or so scouts. they asked one of the scout's if he was concerned about the caliber of the other team? i'll never forget this. he said " i don't care if they were todlers, he threw 94 and over the plate". great quote.

I learned a long time ago the player needs to do his own marketing as well so as to get his name out there---there is no shame in it---do it---if you are blowing smoke people will find out quick enough

LINK...Read This!

I'm not sure that everyone checked out the article linked above.

20dad,

Even the colleges up in the northeast were not recruiting Chris Lambert to play baseball. If this last chance didn't pan out he was done with baseball. He said he was going to hang it up and go play hockey if this last chance didn't work out. This event took place in August after he was done with high school and Legion baseball. He had a couple weeks before deciding what to do.

Yes, he now goes on the side that was not missed, but just barely! There are others who have been completely missed.

Also, have times really changed that much? How many from NH these days are being recruited by colleges outside the northeast? Of those who are, how did that happen? I would imagine they did more than just stay around town playing high school and legion baseball, waiting for someone to find them.

Of course, my knowledge is limited to those from NH who have gone on to be highly recruited by college coaches outside the northeast or pro ball. Those are the ones that everyone hears about. Others can stay local and still have a chance to be found in college. I'm afraid there are others who who were good enough that just didn't get that opportunity.

Let's face it... A high school player can be outstanding and NOT be discovered by college coaches! Sometimes a college player can be good enough and NOT be discovered by pro scouts. We know this for a fact! All you have to do is see the number of players signed to contracts and making it to the Big leagues out of Independent Leagues. If it weren't for these Independent Leagues the same players would have been "Missed"!

Yes, they also go on the "they will find you" side. It just took a long time to find them! They were still the same person for the 5 or 6 years before that happened, but they were "missed" during that time. Many others don't go the Independent route, so among those who were "good enough", were never "found"! We even see a few in their 30s playing in town ball leagues just for fun. I believe most people who have been around this stuff long enough, can name people they once knew, who were "missed"!

If Mike Piazza wasn't related to Tommy Lasorda he would have been missed. Even at that he was drafted in something like the 60+ round as a favor to Tommy. No one really thought he would play in the Big leagues, let alone become a potential hall of famer. He would have to be considered "great"! Does anyone really believe he would have been the only one?

PG

I am sure you will agree with me that there is no one formula for being seen-- a lot of it is timing--a lot of it is the players desire--we could go one but the key is playing in games that are seen

pg

i think things have changed a ton. do to hard work by guy's like yourself there are more venues to be seen. websites like this help as well. baseball has grown in popularity, around here anyway. i remember when top 96 was the top 96. only a 2 day event in lawrence ma. look at them now.

i still truly believe pitchers with velocity
(real velocity, not heresay) can/will be found. position player's not so much.

we have a few that leave the NE, but i think we have more now playing in college, that's a plus. we have some very good schools up here with good baseball programs. i think some coaching staff's are getting younger,and looking to keep kids at home.

quote
Let's face it... A high school player can be outstanding and NOT be discovered by college coaches!
-------------------------------------------------- i have to agree.......unless he's a lefty that throws 92.

quote:

Originally posted by 20dad:

quote:

When Rogers pitched in the state championship game his senior year against the high school comprised of many of the previous year's Legion national champions (including Ryan Flaherty/first round supplemental in 2008) the game drew 8,000 at the home of the Red Sox AA team.

---------------------------------------------------

his sr yr there was an article in the portland paper. he had something like 20k's that day in front of 15 or so scouts. they asked one of the scout's if he was concerned about the caliber of the other team? i'll never forget this. he said " i don't care if they were todlers, he threw 94 and over the plate". great quote.

It wasn't in that game. Deering beat him 6-1. The year before they pounded him 9-1. That Deering team was ranked by USAToday. They had nine or ten players go on to college ball. Five went D1.

"Men's Baseball - The Eagles reached the Class A State Title game twice. In 2004, Mt. Ararat pitcher Mark Rogers was drafted 5th overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the Major League Baseball Draft.

Date Opponent Result
2003 Deering High School L: 1-9
2004 Deering High School L: 1-6"

Often even huge numbers in smaller high schools are not enough. The state champion in the 2nd smallest classification by school size came out of our district. Their stud was a mature lefthander with decent size who I gunned in a 1-0 pitching duel with my son at 87-88 throughout a game in which he only walked one and gave up two hits. He had at that time a 11-0 record and ended the season 18-0 with 11 HRs and an average of about .450. He averaged more than 1.5 k's per inning pitched. He was district player of the year two times. After the game his dad was talking to me because he had heard my son was already signed for college (as a centerfielder, not a pitcher). He was wondering what to do since at that point in his son's senior year he not only had no offers, he had pretty much not even been recruited. His dad told me they had gone to no camps or showcases since he was a freshman. Their school, like ours was off the beaten path even for our district. It was April by this time and finally a DII coach made him an offer. I mentioned this school to his dad as one he needed to contact right away but I don't know if that is how he caught the coaches attention. All I know is that he had numbers that few guys achieve in HS but don't depend on that to get you found. In the lower classifications they'll assume you aren't playing any competition.

rjm
i know it wasn't that game. the kid could bring it though.

Here in Southern California players get missed and it is a hot bed of talent. Some wrote of making a transfer of better high school program. I think if you are playing on the right travel program there is no need to be concerned about your HS program unless it is really bad. We have two players from our 2010 class that are highly visible. One lives in Barstow which is smack in the middle of LA and Las Vegas. It is all pretty much dirt and rock in the middle of no where.

The other attend a small christian HS with an enrollment of about 300 students. Before he and the new coach got there they have had won 5 games in the previous three seasons. They have been to a CIF title game twice... winning last year.

Both these players had talent. Both were named to the Aflac All American team. Both put themselves out there to be seen. When both joined our program the one good question scouts and college asked was "Where did you find these guys?" We would have never made the drive to Barstow before. Now they make the 130 mile trek there. If the kid never ventures out of Barstow who would have seen him?

sgv,

You guys with San Gabriel Valley Arsenal, Bruno with NorCal, Spiers with ABD, Trombly and others do so much for the talented kids from California it's amazing.

Several of the players on those teams would get overlooked if it weren't for you guys finding them and letting the world know about them. The Aflac players and first round picks could have gone undrafted and not been recruited by the top programs without what you do. Instead they become high profile players known by everyone in the country. And I'm sure even you guys along with other top orgnizations miss a few along the way.

Cole pitched about 20 innings his junior year in high school. Then he started showing up at the right events and became a first round pick as a senior despite not being picked for the Junior USA Team. He's as talented as any pitcher we have ever seen, but the key is he was seen! If it weren't for the summer, no one would have known who he was and he is from California and as talented as they get.

Guys like Brandon Marrow from California were not household names, just like Strasburg. Marrow was not a high profile guy coming out of high school despite our opinion and his diabetic condition didn't help. He was drafted in the 40th round out of high school! They didn't necessarily miss him, they just underestimated his ability. You probably know more like that than we do.

The AL MVP in 2008 was from California. There were no pro scouts who realized just how good he was when he was in high school. Who would know how good Tony Wolters really is, had he stayed away from national level competition?

Heck, no one knew how good BJ Upton from Virginia was until he started showing up everywhere. Mike manning, Lee Banks and others knew. David Wright did the same thing to get noticed. These guys didn't stay at home and wait to be found. They found out where the decision makers were and went to the places where they were at, just like nearly everyone who became an early draft pick or top college recruit.

It's even more obvious as time goes on... Those drafted early based on being found late based on their senior high school have failed to be successful. Colt Griffin and others who were never seen playing against the best competition become the biggest gamble of sll. It's amazing how many of those types have struggled. MLB clubs do learn from their mistakes and seldom make the same mistake twice.

I think Tony Wolters is a perfect example. Not the biggest kid but he proved he is one the best out there. I love that kid. When in Minnesota at the National showcase he brought out the competitiveness out of everyone in the dugout. Lonnie Kauppila was somewhat known here in SoCal. He attended the right events and had a great showing the National Showcase. My phone had a tons of texts when I got off the plane in Minnesota from colleges guys asking about him after his fist game there.

I do have to add that attending these events is not the only thing....You still have to perform at the level they are looking for.
I can mention a few others that when they attended he right events and performed things took off for them.

PG, how luck was I to have Cole not sign and pitch Connie Mack for me that year. It did hurt to lose my entire outfield with Hicks, Gose and Collier to the draft that year.

Very interesting thread.

No doubt there are certain venues that lend the ability to raise a players stock in reference to the draft.

But is there anything to be said about over exposure if we are talking about the draft?

In my opinion, I've coached and presently coach several players that would have been better off keeping their gear packed at certain events. Even if their performance impressed, the value of what is already known may lend more value than the unknown.

The amateur game and the venues available have changed drastically in just a few decades. As I've stated before on other forums, the perception on what is necessary to "get noticed" is drastically different than reality in my opinion.


Let's look at it this way...

If a student applies himself/herself at a community college, a valuable education can be gained.

If that same student doesn't apply their self at a nationally recognized university, no education will ever be gained.

So does it really matter where the student goes? Or is it really up to the student?


I come from the school that if you want something bad enough and it's meant to be...it will happen.

Ability, determination, application, timing, and luck will ultimately control a players destiny.

There is no concrete program to follow.

There is no magic showcase, team, or venue.

And with that all said, what really should be the goal?

To play college baseball?

To play professional baseball?

To earn a fortune?

What's really important? The destination or the journey?

I will attest that the journey for the vast majority of amateur baseball players will lend much more value than the perceived destination.

SGV...see you in Utah.

PG...Thinking about changing our names to the Dallas Playground Kids this summer.

Ken,

I have great respect for you and the organization you work with.

That said I have to disagree with you on one thing.

Please don't take this as a PG thing, but I am a big believer in "OVER" exposure. I look at over exposure as something that represents the truth!

As you know, there comes a time where there is no place to hide. Far as I'm concerned that might just as well be right away. The more "they" know about a player, the more accurate they will evaluate him. I believe that accuracy is very important to both the evaluator and the player. There's no reason other than money to hide. It's the true value of a player that counts the most.

Most, not all, the top draft picks could in fact be considered over exposed. In their case it was a good thing.

I get scared when I hear an agent say he doesn't want to risk his players position. I get even more scared when I hear a player say he did well at the last one, so he doesn't want to hurt his stock. We have heard both many times.

That does not mean that a player needs to do everything, but he should never worry about over exposure. I would be more concerned with under exposure.

BTW, I do agree with every other point you made.

What happened to the "I did well last time. I want to do even better this time' thinking?

Those are the kids I want

PG,

Actually, I don't think that we disagree as much as we see things from a different prospective.

I promise this is not a PG thing, but let's be honest. In your position I would expect you to be an advocate of "OVER" exposure. You have made a living by putting the nations best amateur players in front of college and professional scouts. You have done so with selective events that allow these scouts to attend and cover a vast majority of guys that are on the radar at the same time.

Hypothetically, let's look at it from this angle. Let's say a couple of pitchers were 90+ last year and were deemed by PG as top 10 prospects in their class. They showed well at AC and any venue they attended on a consistent basis. Area and regional guys are saying late first to early second no doubt.

By your own omission this should be enough...

quote:

Probably the most important talent a scout can have is his ability to project talent. To predict how good that player will be in 4 or 5 years or even after that.

Let's say the area guy sees these guys in the mid 90's 5 times and the regional guy see's them twice with the same performance. The National guy has made his way out as well. The pitchers project mechanically, body type, and character. Every college coach in the country knows these guys. Every "advisor" does as well.

What more needs to be shown?

Yes, of course a scout wants to see a top draft guy as much as possible. If he's seen him at his best 5 times, he wants to see that down day.

Yes, of course you want these players to continue to be at your events for obvious reasons.

So for the scout and the PG staff, over exposure is a good thing.

But for the player there are many variables that would suggest over exposure is a bad thing in reference to the amount that check reads at the end of the process.

PG, let's be honest. We could go watch infield together and not say a word and come pretty close on which players project. Right?

I bet you could see a guy one time on the mound (at the players best) and tell if he's a prospect or not. Right?

Now the tough part is where these players would go in the draft. Early? Middle? Late?

Why is this tough? Because of that paper they make in green.

Someone has to be responsible for deeming an amateur to be worth $2 million plus or a bus ticket.

If I'm that amateur that's on top of the radar already...why am I gonna chance being closer to $2 million than being on that Greyhound?

Like it or not...

Agree or disagree...

It all goes back to money.

It's the way the world survives.

It's the way PG survives.

It's the way baseball survives, but it's also they way it fails. On many accounts...but that's for another thread.

quote:

Originally posted by TRhit:
What happened to the "I did well last time. I want to do even better this time' thinking?

Those are the kids I want

That's a good way of thinking and we all won't those kids.

But sometimes you must be realistic.

If your 5'10" and hitting 93 in the 5th inning consistantly...

Chances are you ain't gettin' much better.

In fact, chances are you won't be there your next outing.

Ken,

Guess I have a hard time explaining my opinions these days. You make some good points.

Over the years I've told many that they don't really need to attend a particular PG event. That they really have nothing to gain. In fact, I relayed this info to the player we have ranked #1 recently. There are many ways a player is “exposed” in addition to PG.

To me there is a difference between over exposure and being stupid, taking foolish risks. My point is there is no place to hide. That same pitcher who you are referring to that has created the buzz, can not hide. He would need to quit playing to avoid over exposure, because whenever he pitches there they are! From a scouting perspective I believe that's the way it should be.

Now if we are talking about the next group of talented players on down, not necessarily the projected early first rounders... it could be a different story. In either case, the scouts want to see and the coaches are going to continue to play the kid. It’s not about PG, and if it’s just about money then maybe that kid should simply not pitch any longer, but we all know that would raise some red flags.

So IMO those that would be in the position you referred to have already been over exposed and will continue to be over exposed each and every time they take the field, as they should be. There is no way around it, others should want to be in that position.

Bottom line… I look at over exposure as a good thing, depending how you define it. It might not end up being the best thing for a player, but it provides the most accurate evaluation. The more anyone sees a player, the more they know about him. It’s not about PG or any other organization.

Ken, you wouldn’t find a single person who can truthfully tell you I form my opinions based on money. I have many faults, but greed is not one of them.

PG,

After reading your previous post, I think we are in much more agreement than we think.

I agree, once a prospect is tagged he will be followed. Whatever venue that may be. There is no hiding and as you mention a player cannot just quit to hold status.

A professional or even college scout has the responsibility to follow that player. That's what separates a good scout from a bad scout or a successful program vs. a sub par program.

What I was referring to is attending anything a player, advisor, organization, or a parent perceived as a "must go" event. This is where that "next group on down" can increase or stagnate their status by attending well covered events. This is also where coaches must make difficult choices on attending an event for the individual or for the team. And going back onto something I touched on earlier, if that bubble player really wants it...it will happen one way or another regardless sooner or later. Whatever he does, wherever he goes, whenever. The cream will always rise to the top.

In your definition, I look at over exposure as a good thing as well. The difference was the definition I guess.

You mention it may not be "the best thing for the player, but it provides the most accurate evaluation." I would agree most of the time yes...but all the time no. Again, going back to what you said earlier about being able to project 4 to 5 years down the road. The time span of evaluation may have been at the bottom of the players performance curve. That evaluation may lead to a dismissal from prospect status. Only later that same player may be evaluated differently by a different scout or even the same scout.

And PLEASE PG, don't take any of my comments as a portrayal of greed. That is not the direction I was going and wouldn't on a public forum.

Simply pointing out that every decision made ultimately goes back to money at some point. Not specifically referring to PG or anything specific. Bottom line...it's a fact of life. Some of what amateur baseball has today wouldn't be possible if foresight and profitability wasn't predicted in the infancy.

I could give hundreds of examples but it wouldn't be relevant to the discussion.

I wish we could sit down and talk about all this someday. I think our views are actually closer than what they look like on the surface of a message board. It would certainly make for entertaining discussion for me, but I'm sure you've discussed it until your blue in the face.

In the end, in all honesty, I believe most all of this is over analyzed drastically.

Paralysis from analysis per se...

If it's meant to be...it will be.

Regardless of what any of us do.

Ken, I do see where you are emphatic in regards to PG not taking this as a greed or green issue. And, I believe you and also find PG to be true as well.
But let me ask you this, with the high profile organization you coach, is it for the kids or is it ultimately for the money. You yourself stated "Simply pointing out that every decision made ultimately goes back to money at some point.". Now, I'm sure you have another job and make a fine living doing that, but if you are not doing it for free, wouldn't it ultimately come down to money. Not saying you don't have the kids best interest at heart, cause from reading some of your posts, I truly believe you do.

Thinking to myself out loud: I hope I don't get questioned on this post, I left my kids out intentionally.