Incoming Recruiting Class Analysis

If I did the math correctly, that is an average of 16 new players per team each year with an average of 45% attrition (roster turnover) rate.  P5 sports ... get them in, chew them up, and spit them out.

@mjd-dad posted:

If I did the math correctly, that is an average of 16 new players each year with an average of 45% attrition (roster turnover) rate.  P5 sports ... get them in, chew them up, and spit them out.

Its almost like its a business.   Every recruit should have ZERO excuse to as what the landscape is currently.

Interesting data, thanks for sharing.  Seems like fairly consistent ratio's across conferences and a general shift toward transfers but not a huge jump.  The two things that stand out to me (OK, maybe a bit of captain obvious) is how little ACC makes use of Juco and that Pac12 is trending away from using Juco's with the West Coast always being such a hotbed of talented JC players.

@mjd-dad posted:

If I did the math correctly, that is an average of 16 new players per team each year with an average of 45% attrition (roster turnover) rate.  P5 sports ... get them in, chew them up, and spit them out.

Note, the 2022 insights are based on the spring roster, so how many recruits did cut after the  2021 fall season

@cabbagedad posted:

Interesting data, thanks for sharing.  Seems like fairly consistent ratio's across conferences and a general shift toward transfers but not a huge jump.  The two things that stand out to me (OK, maybe a bit of captain obvious) is how little ACC makes use of Juco and that Pac12 is trending away from using Juco's with the West Coast always being such a hotbed of talented JC players.

Once the season starts, we will be able to get better numbers.  I think the numbers for PAC12 will be close.  The majority of the CCCAA Juco players go D2

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

Once the season starts, we will be able to get better numbers.  I think the numbers for PAC12 will be close.  The majority of the CCCAA Juco players go D2

Thanks CBI.  Yeah I know the two big D2 conferences in CA are rostered very heavy JC and there are a few Pac schools that don't typically go that route (and that MANY CA JC players go all over the country at various levels).  But I'm still used to seeing quite a few rostered on many of the other Pac schools, including those in the Pacific Northwest.

@cabbagedad posted:

Thanks CBI.  Yeah I know the two big D2 conferences in CA are rostered very heavy JC and there are a few Pac schools that don't typically go that route (and that MANY CA JC players go all over the country at various levels).  But I'm still used to seeing quite a few rostered on many of the other Pac schools, including those in the Pacific Northwest.

Looks like Washington went only had 2 transfers for the 2023 season

vs 2022 season

Here is an up-to-date summary for P5 Incoming recruiting class for 2023 season

P5 Conference Map

Break down of ACC Incoming Class

Breakdown of SEC

Big 12

Big Ten

Pac-12

One thing that strikes me about these numbers, if I'm reading them right, is that in most cases, the number of new (transfer+freshmen) players is more than half the total team, or even close to 2/3 of the team.

I guess I would have expected it more like 1/3 (assuming that seniors are draft or done).  The only ones below 35% are Notre Dame, Boston College, Penn State, Michigan, Stanford, Washington, Vanderbilt, and Florida.  In the Big 12, no school is below 50% new players.

That means that a lot of upperclassmen are leaving, whether cut or by choice.

These numbers support what some of us have been saying since Covid (and related rulings) changed the game. The emphasis in college baseball is on older players at the expense of younger players. It is by design, as MLB wants the college system to “employ” players that historically would be playing rookie ball or lower class A ball so they don’t have to. The cost of providing a place for those players has been shifted from MLB orgs to the college and university systems. College baseball has never before had so many players that were 23, 24, or 25 years old. Those players are proven and they are being brought into programs to make an immediate difference as opposed to giving younger players time to develop. You can not like it if you want. You can cry foul if you want. That doesn’t change the fact that it’s happening and it’s widespread. As a parent it’s your job to recognize the trends and adjust your personal strategy accordingly. There are a number of members on HSBBW that have experienced the impact of this with their own kids (and/or their teammates) over the past 3 years and have posted about it. Those are the people you should be listening to if you are in your own recruiting cycle. Especially if you believe that your son is a D1 recruit.

@mjd-dad posted:

If I did the math correctly, that is an average of 16 new players per team each year with an average of 45% attrition (roster turnover) rate.  P5 sports ... get them in, chew them up, and spit them out.

First off, great stuff @CollegebaseballInsights.  Nothing like numbers to bring out the baseball geeks in all of us!

Honestly, I'm not too surprised by the numbers given the transfer rules and JUCO activity.  The college baseball machine (especially P5) as @mjd-dad noted is still the same...get the best talent in, chew them up and spit them out.  Very underclassmen heavy as it has been for a long time. 

So, in my way of thinking college baseball hasn't changed much.  The house always wins.  Coaches are always looking for the best talent to compete for roster spots and there is a huge jump in P5 transfers from 401 to 491 while JUCO and freshmen numbers are relatively close from 2022 to 2023.   The transfers and JUCO guys know what they are up against (they've done this before) but the freshmen are not armed with experience and this information which is gold.  When my son was being recruited 13 years ago by D1 and D1 HA schools this kind of data really wasn't a concern (or available).  Sure, he was going to be competing against established guys in a program, and other freshmen.  Transfers and JUCO transfers were a mere blip on the radar..the exception to the rule.   Honestly, this shows me how broken the system has become.  The old saying that the "house always wins in Las Vegas" is also true for D1 college baseball.  JMO.

https://twitter.c

In other recruiting news......lol

https://twitter.com/TEAMELITEN...135187618545664?s=20

@Master P posted:

https://twitter.c

In other recruiting news......lol

https://twitter.com/TEAMELITEN...135187618545664?s=20

Ridiculous.   Nobody is questioning the young mans talent or the folks at TCU.   

What chaps my behind is that his travel team put that media package together and put their logo displayed prominently in the top right corner.   Call me a grumpy old fart, but does this travel team really have an 8th graders long term best interests at heart or their own long term business interests?  Did they even think this announcement over before releasing into the twittersphere?  Where is Captain Obvious when you need him.

JMO

fenway;

Remember Delmon Young, now playing for the Melbourne Blues in Australia.

One our Area Code players age 14.

Bob

@CollegebaseballInsights

Nice work.

But I still stand by my opinion that just because more transfers are coming into the top programs, does not mean that coaches aren't spending hours preparing the players for the upcoming season and perhaps for the draft because this is what they do. That has been that way since son was recruited.

Very surprising is early RPI with mid D1 programs. I would like to see incoming analysis of perhaps one of those conferences. Let's see their incoming class analysis, which would make more sense for most folks here.

Agree, that the emphasis should be on finding a place where you can be on the field, not on the bench. And any program that one decides to go to has to understand that every coach has a different approach to success.

JMO

My son's HA D3 has two D1 transfers this season. This is a first for them. Strange days indeed.

@TPM posted:

@CollegebaseballInsights

Nice work.

But I still stand by my opinion that just because more transfers are coming into the top programs, does not mean that coaches aren't spending hours preparing the players for the upcoming season and perhaps for the draft because this is what they do. That has been that way since son was recruited.

Very surprising is early RPI with mid D1 programs. I would like to see incoming analysis of perhaps one of those conferences. Let's see their incoming class analysis, which would make more sense for most folks here.

Agree, that the emphasis should be on finding a place where you can be on the field, not on the bench. And any program that one decides to go to has to understand that every coach has a different approach to success.

JMO

Like you said, your opinion separate from the thread with a lengthy discussion.

The purpose is provide insights, as for other conferences, yes the data is available.  It took significant effort to reconcile and data mine.

Information can be obtained from the CBI website.

@cabbagedad posted:

Interesting data, thanks for sharing.  Seems like fairly consistent ratio's across conferences and a general shift toward transfers but not a huge jump.  The two things that stand out to me (OK, maybe a bit of captain obvious) is how little ACC makes use of Juco and that Pac12 is trending away from using Juco's with the West Coast always being such a hotbed of talented JC players.

Here's at least one reason why some D1 programs may be trending away from JUCO transfers - at least for the time being until the COVID classes cycle out.  We've heard from a number of JUCO transfers (and/or parents) who aren't eligible at their D1 this year, or are hoping for a waiver, because they didn't satisfy the "percentage of degree completion" requirements after three years at JUCO.

For any D1 athlete in any sport, when you're entering your 4th year of college attendance, your D1 must certify that you've earned at least 60% of the academic credits/units required for your degree.

When JUCOs just offer freshman and sophomore level courses - 50% of a four-year degree - hitting the 60% mark can be a problem.  Especially if the D1 university has a policy that they won't accept as transferable credit more than 50% of the credits/units needed to earn a degree from that university!

@adbono posted:

These numbers support what some of us have been saying since Covid (and related rulings) changed the game. The emphasis in college baseball is on older players at the expense of younger players. It is by design, as MLB wants the college system to “employ” players that historically would be playing rookie ball or lower class A ball so they don’t have to. The cost of providing a place for those players has been shifted from MLB orgs to the college and university systems. College baseball has never before had so many players that were 23, 24, or 25 years old. Those players are proven and they are being brought into programs to make an immediate difference as opposed to giving younger players time to develop. You can not like it if you want. You can cry foul if you want. That doesn’t change the fact that it’s happening and it’s widespread. As a parent it’s your job to recognize the trends and adjust your personal strategy accordingly. There are a number of members on HSBBW that have experienced the impact of this with their own kids (and/or their teammates) over the past 3 years and have posted about it. Those are the people you should be listening to if you are in your own recruiting cycle. Especially if you believe that your son is a D1 recruit.

The problem is that most parents and players do not understand this.  They see a big name school recruiting them, commit when they are 16, daddy is all proud to talk about how his son is going to be a star at State University, and then by Thanksgiving of the freshman year the coaching staff realizes that that he can't hit high velocity pitching, or throws 92 mph fastballs, but can't find the strike zone and they are encouraged to put their name in the transfer portal.

Sometimes big name schools come with big name problems.   

@Ster posted:

..................................................................

Sometimes big name schools come with big name problems.   

So true.

@Ster posted:

The problem is that most parents and players do not understand this.  They see a big name school recruiting them, commit when they are 16, daddy is all proud to talk about how his son is going to be a star at State University, and then by Thanksgiving of the freshman year the coaching staff realizes that that he can't hit high velocity pitching, or throws 92 mph fastballs, but can't find the strike zone and they are encouraged to put their name in the transfer portal.

Sometimes big name schools come with big name problems.   

I get it that most players and parents don’t understand this. But it’s absolutely the truth. That’s why I talk about it here and everywhere else I have a chance. I’m a player’s advocate above all else and I don’t think the current situation treats players very well. All you can do is try to educate people to the reality of what’s happening. It doesn’t help matters that some RCs at big name schools keep recruiting big classes of freshmen when they know that 50% of them will never wear a uniform. It also doesn’t help that some people are just in denial and refuse to accept the current situation in spite of all the evidence in front of them. But I guess you could say that about a lot of things right now.

Adbono

what is your solution? Maybe eliminate the Under 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, divisions for players who desire to play high level College baseball. 30 years ago this was our goal in SR. The local JC and State College supported this objective.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Adbono

what is your solution? Maybe eliminate the Under 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, divisions for players who desire to play high level College baseball. 30 years ago this was our goal in SR. The local JC and State College supported this objective.

Bob

I don’t see a solution until all the players with extra years of eligibility have aged out of college baseball. And even then I think the change needs to come from the side of the consumer (player & parents). They have to be more educated about the process and make more informed (and better) decisions. At the highest level of D1 the baseball programs are a business and are operated as such - and that’s no secret. So it should come as no surprise that decisions can be cold and hard. Scholarships can be taken away as easily as they are given. That trend has been going on for years so that should not be a surprise to anyone at this point either. And it doesn’t matter if it’s a P5 school either. Games are played with scholarships at all kinds of schools because they have the upper hand in the entire process. The only immediate answer I have is for players and parents to do a better job navigating the recruiting process. There is a lot of free information out there if people are willing to look. And willing to ask questions.

@adbono posted:

I don’t see a solution until all the players with extra years of eligibility have aged out of college baseball. And even then I think the change needs to come from the side of the consumer (player & parents). They have to be more educated about the process and make more informed (and better) decisions. At the highest level of D1 the baseball programs are a business and are operated as such - and that’s no secret. So it should come as no surprise that decisions can be cold and hard. Scholarships can be taken away as easily as they are given. That trend has been going on for years so that should not be a surprise to anyone at this point either. And it doesn’t matter if it’s a P5 school either. Games are played with scholarships at all kinds of schools because they have the upper hand in the entire process. The only immediate answer I have is for players and parents to do a better job navigating the recruiting process. There is a lot of free information out there if people are willing to look. And willing to ask questions.

I have heard (via DM from someone on here) that some consultants/coaches are encouraging all HS players to do a gap or PG year, so their college playing age is 19-23 instead of 18-22. This was coming out of the Northeast.

Anyone else heard of this?

@SpeedDemon posted:

I have heard (via DM from someone on here) that some consultants/coaches are encouraging all HS players to do a gap or PG year, so their college playing age is 19-23 instead of 18-22. This was coming out of the Northeast.

Anyone else heard of this?

I have not.

@adbono posted:

I have not.

Thanks. It seemed very strange to me. Why delay a year unless you absolutely have to?