Interesting article on The Shift

About the difficulty of being a "place" hitter.  A  pro scout told me and my son that he thinks all kids should START OUT  learning to hit to the opposite field and focus on learning to  pull  the ball only much much later in their baseball careers.  He thinks in just about all lower levels of baseball hitting is taught backwards, with way too much emphasis on pulling the ball.  He says he can teach a player who starts out as an opposite field hitter to pull the ball much more easily than he can teach a player who starts out as a pull hitter to learn to go oppo.   

cabbagedad- I can't really comment on specific teams' usage of the shift, but I can say that I'm glad you're reading Ben's work. He's extremely good at what he does. 

Originally Posted by SluggerDad:

…He thinks in just about all lower levels of baseball hitting is taught backwards, with way too much emphasis on pulling the ball.  

He should come here and look at all levels below college. I can’t remember a lot of true pull hitter at any level through HS.

I think it’s more likely that pulling the ball at levels below the ML comes from there being a likelihood of the “average” pitcher being much easier to hit.

He says he can teach a player who starts out as an opposite field hitter to pull the ball much more easily than he can teach a player who starts out as a pull hitter to learn to go oppo.   

Why is he teaching anyone if he’s a scout, or does he mean in general it’s easier to do that?

Here’s our hitters from last year. See if you can guess if they were LH or RH batters. We had one switch hitter.

Heard an interview with Frank Wren, Braves GM, last night where he talked about this.  He said he thought that this would be a topic of discussion for a rules change in the near future.  Maybe something like only 2 infielders on one side of 2nd base.  Not sure if anything will come of it, but Wren said he and other baseball people don't like the the shift in the game.  Cuts down on offensive production.

Brian Jordan, ex-player, current announcer/analyst, basically said the best way to deal with it is to get the players to hit it the other way.  I agree with Brian.

Baseball is a numbers game.  And, the numbers are rich and meaningful.  The SHIFT has been used since Ted Williams played. He seemed to handle it OK!!  Other than the catcher in foul territory, players can be placed anywhere.  There are times when the center-fielder is brought into the infield to prevent the runner at third from scoring (because a fly to center would score the run anyhow).

So, the numbers show where each hitter has hit in many past situations (in count, lefty vs righty, pitch location, etc), and the defense in positioned accordingly. 

That's how the game is played, no rule change is needed. Just PLAY BALL!. 

I think eliminating the shift isn't a bad idea.  It would definitely increase production. The NBA has an illegal defenses, so why can't baseball?

I actually like the shift, but I am a pitchers parent.

Tough job though, trying to keep up with all of those stats.

Good article.   Figure it out as Duda did....very Darwinian. 

The game & players need to adapt.  It would be a mistake to change the rules because the players haven't figured it out or don't have the personnel to beat the shift.   It is the lumbering lefty boppers that are being targeted....they need to figure it out from my viewpoint.  If I was a GM, I'd consider some different personnel approaches....like faster lefty intermediate-power players and big right handed hitters.

Unless they go the illegal defense route, I see big pay days coming for lefties who can both pull the ball and hit with power the other way.  You do of course want your lefties to be able to pull the ball with men on base. 

This is pretty much my thoughts as well.  The frequency of using the shift has grown significantly over the last few years.  The game has always been about adjustments but I think we have entered an era where those adjustments will become a bit more drastic.  I'm very curious to see how much this reduces the stock of the power lefty, at least for the time being, and what it does to the recruiting process downstream.  Certainly, I would think this puts an even greater premium on speed and versatile hitters.  Also, gap-to-gap with some pop.  Then, what will be the counter-adjustment further down the road?  I'm waiting for the day that defenses shift "mid-pitch" based on planned pitch location, taking hitter tendencies into consideration.  I know some smart fielders will creep a few steps but I'm thinking something more drastic.

I'm also trying to think how best to utilize this with defensive strategy at the HS level.  I get hung up a little bit on the thought of having a 2b trying to field hard ground balls in short right field considering the typical condition of HS outfields in our area.  Most have a significant drop when comparing the outfield and infield.

Last night, Dodgers extreme infield shift...

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/d...shift-074155896.html

Yeah, saw that. Added bonus of Vin Scully on the call.  I am surprised when anybody mentions a rule change. There's a certain perfection to the way that a baseball field and the rules are laid out that seems to allow it to flex with the changing abilities of players and strategies of coaches. It is, like you say, Darwinian.  Winning players & teams will adapt.  Losing teams won't.

As for HS ball...  I don't see the shift being much of a factor. The percentage of lefty power  hitters in the game is much lower.  And unlike your average power hitter, every kid on a HS team practices bunting all the time. I think any HS coach anywhere would signal a bunt as soon as he saw the left side of the infield go vacant.

Originally Posted by cabbagedad:

…I'm also trying to think how best to utilize this with defensive strategy at the HS level.  I get hung up a little bit on the thought of having a 2b trying to field hard ground balls in short right field considering the typical condition of HS outfields in our area.  Most have a significant drop when comparing the outfield and infield.

My thought is that HS is a much different animal and far more difficult to anticipate because there isn’t the depth of knowledge about opposing hitters and pitchers there is in the ML. One of the main reasons the shift works, is because so much is known about the hitters, and the pitchers have a pretty decent chance of executing any pitching plan. That’s not something I’d count on in HS, except for the weakest pitchers throwing against the most well-known hitters.

I have noticed one glaring change in the defenses the last few years. In general, outfielders play much much shallower. I don’t know if it’s because of BBCOR because it’s not something I track, so I can’t say exactly when it became noticeable. But now-a-days it isn’t at all unusual to see OFrs playing much further in than I remember them playing years ago.

That just flies in the face of you have to learn something new or help your team in any way possible when you are at the plate.  There are no style points for winning pretty.....winning ugly is fine by most MLB manager standards.

I just wonder how many of these players really work on hitting balls to a place on the field or how many players have the capability to hit to a place on a field.  If they are working on hitting to a ball to a place on the field are they practicing against a shift?  Is there a Sabermetric stat or index that shows a hitters tendency & capability to hit to all parts of the field?  Just thinking out loud here...

If you have 5 guys on the right side of the infield, I'm not faulting the defense.....that is a hitter's approach issue.  You've basically demonstrated throughtout the season that you are a one dimensional hitter through spray charts and other research tools.  There is nothing wrong with the game, there is something wrong with the hitter's approach. 

Originally Posted by fenwaysouth:

… Is there a Sabermetric stat or index that shows a hitters tendency & capability to hit to all parts of the field?  Just thinking out loud here...

Spray charts  are the easiest way to show tendencies, and they’ve been used since the 1800’s. But with the advent of pitch and hit f/x, its turned from a hit and miss affair dependent on how accurately the person marking the BIP and the person’s ability to interpret the spray chart, to something much more scientific.

I don’t know if all the teams are getting into it, but I know of at least one who has people mining combined pitch and hit f/x data so they can tell not only where every BIP is hit, but what pitch it was hit off, what velocity it was thrown, how much spin it had, what its release point was, the angle it came off the bat, the velocity it came off the bat, the spin it had coming off the bat, and exactly where it was on the field. With the new system next year, they’ll be able to put all that information together with what players were defenders, exactly where they were positioned at the time the ball was hit, how they reacted to every ball hit, and scads of other things no one has even thought of yet.

The thing is, while all of the raw data so far is open to the public, what the individual teams come up with, which is what you’re asking about, isn’t likely to become public any time soon. That kind of thing is what teams use to get some kind of advantage. Why would they share that with everyone else?

To answer the bold: Yes. Lots of them. More in depth than most people (including myself) could have ever imagined.

To answer the rest of the post… http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/j...tsmtw:fscom:mlbonfox

Thanks.  I'm auditing an online course in Sabermetrics101 at Boston Univ.   I haven't got to where they mention shifts or anything like that yet, but I'll be looking for it.  I guess I envisioned an indexed number (1 to a 100) that can tell me a hitter does a good job of hitting against the shift.

Never liked the shift. I was brought up playing and thinking about baseball in the traditional style of playing. Looks to me like a bit of cheating. But shame on the pro hitters if they can't figure out how to adjust their swings,  serves them right.  

Enjoy the Sabermetrics course, I've heard good things.

I don't think it's possible to put one singular number on a player's ability to beat a general shift because there are so many different shifts and so many different pitchers/pitches. Pitch F/x is a public metric that disperses some information about pitch data and hitter tendencies/basic spray charts. Other technologies such as Hit F/x, Trackman, and ChryonHego provide other metrics using radar analysis systems that give teams more information as well. Each baseball game produces several million points of data, and actually a good amount of it can be used to initiate defensive shifts. I'm not sure how in depth the course gets, but I'm sure Professor Andres or other guest presenters would be able to touch upon at least the surface of those concepts. It's all very interesting stuff.

I don't believe it should be that hard for the hitters to learn to go the other way, if they do that, even a little bit, the big shift goes away and we play ball. if these hitters refuse or the teams don't find a way to get them to buy into making changes they are just going to lose and in a couple of years the shift will be phased out by players who use the whole field. IMO everything goes in cycles and this will go away soon enough.

Baseball certainly doesn't need a rule change, they have created enough problems this season with rule changes!! BTW at least Bud Selig is retiring so we don't have to worry about him being involved with discussion!

So, with all this detailed data now/soon available and effective computer analysis, its every team/ manager for themselves.  SHIFTS along with pitch selection, batting order, relief pitcher selections, pitch hitters, DH, pickoff plays, etc are All apart of WINNING BASEBALL.

None is cheating nor illegal.  STEALING bases and signals are quite legal too!

Money Ball, Bill James, and Sabermetrics are changing the game BUT NOT THE RULES.

The easiest way to combat the SHIFT is the BUNT (past the pitcher to the area vacated by a fielder).

That is what Brian McCann did last night....laid a bunt down the third base foul line and got on first because there was just no one there to field the ball.  The next time he came up the shortstop played in a bit....but it didn't matter since he hit a HR.

Point being...if you are going to be paid the big bucks you have to be able to adapt to the changing game.