Is ERA a Valuable Statistic?

What about the guy who pitches against top teams compared to others that don't.
It is almost impossible to get a true gauge of a pitchers ability other than watching him in action. I also look at Opponent BA but that also can be misleading based on scorekeepers judgement.
All stats are interesting if you look at them broadly. Many pitchers who suffer at the hands of poor defence should still have reasonable stats.

Interesting thoughts, Midlo and Bobble. I am treating them as reminders. I see players in the newspaper's rankings that have better numbers than my son's and I need something to explain to myself why he's not on top.

Seriously, the conditions are not the same for any two players at the HS level and probably not at college, either. There is a very broad range of talent in and out of the team's district. The stud is most likely going to face the toughest opponents. The next pitchers will face the lesser teams. The games' outcomes could be identical and provide each pitcher with identical stats. Now, are the pitchers with identical stats really equal?

When I check my son's pitching stats, the local paper makes it a little easier to get some perspective. They offer the following stats, as reported by the coaches:

GP GS CG W-L PCT IP Sv R ER ERA H 2B 3B HR

BB K KAVG WHIP Ks/W SB ROE AVG OB% SLG BF WP HB

But, these stats alone aren't enough to really guage the competition he has pitched against. More work is needed to check their stats, too.

ERA is a very defensive related stat.

Better stats for pitchers are:

BB/9
K/9
HR/9
K to BB Ratio

These are all stats the pitcher controls and has no reliance on the quality of defense put behind him.

A great book on these type of numbers/stats is Baseball Between The Numbers by Baseball Prospectus.

I believe the best indication of a pitcher is the WHIP (Walks+Hits per inning), followed by OBA (opponent batting average). If you are looking at relievers, another critical one is Inherited runners/Scored.

These will tell you more about a pitcher than the ERA.

I think stats are interesting but mean very little. Someone pitching against top schools will likely have worse stats than someone who pitches against poorer teams. What about extra base hits ?
I am a stats watcher because I can't watch my son play so I look at team stats as part of the fun.
Last year I saw 2 pitchers signed ML contracts with 2-9 records and one with a dounble digit ERA in a low D1 conference. I know on who was drafted out of HS who had terrible stats after TJ surgury and has managed to get his velo from 68 to 80 in 2 years of college ball. The scouts are talking to him again. I know guys who have been suspended by their elite teams who were signed out of HS. I watched a guy the other night who has been released by 2 or 3 ML teams and he was a beautiful guy to watch. Good velocity etc and I was wondering who would release this guy. Then I saw him act like a total morron. A batter called time while he was getting set and he threw the pitch at his head. He almost caused a fight. Then after he struck thye guy out he mouthed off at him as he headed for the duggout. Again almost causing a fight. I was sitting with his dad and I couls see where he got the attitude. No class. I told him his son should not have mouthed off at the batter which didn't go down well.
All I care about is that my son's stats are reasonable and that he is in the top 5 or so on his team. The reason I care about that is that he is fighting for more playing time. In a lot of cases one bad outting and you ride the pines for awhile.

Stats can be very useful if kept properly. ERA isn't perfect, but it is a good stat.

K/9 isn't real helpful if you have a groundball type pitcher. Some very good pitchers might not look good on K/9.

There is no way I would suggest evaluating pitchers on total runs.

None of the stats are standalone, but together they can help paint a broad picture.

Midlo,
Nolan Ryan is a good example of a slightly above average pitcher who had a decent ERA but really wasn't as good as he's made out to be because of the walks. His W-L record was indicative of his true ability.

The biggest problem with ERA is that if an error is made with 2 outs a pitcher can give up umpteen runs and none of them is earned. That can really throw off the stat. Hey, if someone hits a home run off a pitcher it should be an earned run no matter what.

Having said all that I'd still say at the MLB level ERA is a pretty useful stat. At the HS level not too many stats mean anything. Too much variation in level of competition and scorekeeping methods.

[quote]Nolan Ryan is a good example of a slightly above average pitcher


Can't agree with that.

If an error is made with 2 outs a pitcher can give up umpteen runs and none of them is earned.

Also true of W-L.

No stat is flawless and they all are subject to interpretation of the scorer.
W_L is mor na team stat. A weak team will have an effect on both stats and all stats for that matter. I have seen several guys signed/drafted with terrible stats.

I was always though ERA should be more important than wins, because a guy could be 5-12 with 2.5 ERA, and just because his team can't produce runs, he's a worse pitcher?

But what do you care if a guy is 19-3 if his ERA is 4.2, just because he doesnt pitch as hard when he has a big lead.

So I think ERA is big, but only when you have a bad hitting team. But I think it is a very strong statistic, overall its even more than wins in my book- its solely represents the pitcher, not the rest of the team.

Any basic stat where you take A and divide it by B isin't a "great" stat, simply because there are so many factors not be counted for. But it is a decent way for measuring how good a pitcher is, but not something I count on by itself.

There are so many factors that render the stats valueless.
Who did he pitch against ? who kept the stats ? was it home or away ? did he get good support ? was he feeeling 100% ? and on and on.
I have seen guys signed by MLB teams who have horrible stats. Scouts/recruiters look beyond that and try to judge ability at their level. That is an inexact science and stats are a small part of the picture.

quote:

There are so many factors that render the stats valueless.
Who did he pitch against ? who kept the stats ? was it home or away ? did he get good support ? was he feeeling 100% ? and on and on.

What if they only come in for relief, Always with runners on base. Pitching from the stretch instead of wind-up.
Pitching around batter's with an open 1st base.

There's so many factors.
EH

The baseball park, the defensive ability of the team, the catcher quality, luck, and other, are factors that affect the E.R.A.. But usually, the best pitchers have the best ERA.
For other part, if a pitcher wins more games that other that have better ERA, who cares? The best team is the one with more wins, not the one with better ERA. Of course, the team with the best ERA probably will have the best chance to win also.

HS stats are all inconclusive due to the scorekeepers involved----there is no standardization of scorekeepers at the HS level

You can fudge ERA, but you can't fudge RUNS.

what do runs scored tell you about a pitcher ?

BobbleheadDoll:

I should think the runs scored stat tells you a great deal about the pitcher involved.

TW344

I can think a tons of things that make that stat as relevant as the other stats. Starting with strenght of team and ending with coach leaving pitchers in too long. Other thinks like pitching against top 10 teams in the NCAA as opposed to weaker teams. I could go on but I won't.
If you could eliminate all the factors the stats might mean some thing. Do you look at stats. I do relevant to the situation the pitcher is in.

Bobbleheaddad,
Not sure of your posts, as in another thread you seemed concerned about your son's ERA. Here you seem to feel it is only relevant to the situation.
I agree in times that is true, a college pitcher who is pitching against tougher competition with a low ERA brings attention. Stats are kept by good scorekeepers on that level (not parents) and have more significance than in HS. As you stated it is only a part of the overall picture.

I think HHH explanation is pretty good for the college level. OBA is very important and tells a lot about a pitcher. A pitcher with a high ERA and lower OBP usually signals that his defense isn't getting the job done.

ERA tells different things about different types of pitchers, whether starters, relievers, closers etc. Scouts will look differently for different things according to their roles and what type of pitchers they are. Runs tell a lot about a pitcher, for example, mine is a starter who is a ground ball pitcher, so he might have more runs (or er's) than a closer who might over power at 95-96 and have more SO's. As you do state sometimes it is relevant to the situation.

I found, in my experience in the last draft, walk to strike out ratio seemed to be very important. And in individual games, how many strikes were thrown versus balls. And the OBA. So did hit batter, which signaled whether the pitcher has control of his stuff or where he throws. Often times a good pitcher might have more hit batters because he is not afraid to pitch inside, so unless you have seen what happened or know how the pitcher works it's a confusing stat. Of course, what is most important is the W, and carries lots of weight for starters.

My son never had a really stellar ERA but it did drop significantly from the previous year and I know that was a strong consideration where he was drafted. He also did better in a summer league. I did notice that many pitchers who had lower ERA's as freshman and sophmore but rose significantly in their third year, dropped in the draft. Some say it is not about ERA, but I tend to disagree sometimes.

ERA should show progress each year as a pitcher develops, so in college and pro ball it IS a valuable stat. If the ERA continues to rise year after year, it means that the pitcher has not made adjustments. The game of baseball is about making adjusments. You will often see pitchers drafted with poor stats and wonder why but that does not mean he is not needed somewhere in the system.

If a good pitcher has a bad outing, most good coaches give him back the ball immediately so he can make his adjustments quickly. You cannot blame a pitchers high ERA on circumstances, he needs to eventually adjust in order not to sit the bench.
JMO.

My concern is because the stats are poor. It shows me he is not focused and putting the effort in. Also shows me he is not in game shape mentally of physically.
If all the indicators are on a bad level that tells me something. I have talked to him and I believe it is a combination of a few things. Lack of workout, not pumped up and the girl friend.
Now as far as stats there are jaded by many factors as I mentioned. The W is the most jaded of all. The W is a team stat more than a pitcher stat. All our pitchers win and lose based on pitching ,runs scored and errors made. W & loses don't concern me unless it is a bad pitching effort.
My son has thrown 2 perfect games and won neither of them. He has lost games he gave up 1 run and 15 Ks. Many combinations.
As far as college score keepers they have issues as well. This year my son had 1 extra ER since the second game. If you add the ERs on the 1st 2 official games sheets they add up to 1. The season stats show 2. Last year he had 2 extra due to one teams said they were ER and the other said they weren't. I have seen hits given that were routine ground balls that got by the player. I saw a hit that was given that was clearly an error and the home team changed it to a hit noting the guy was 3 for 4 and the announcers thought it was funny. I saw a 3B with runners on 1st and 2nd charg a ground bal hit sharply to him and tried fielding it with a scoup instead of receiving it and going for the force. Routine but he scouped and flipped it over his shoulder into the outfield. 2 ERs scored. Stats are jaded by the home scorer. I have seen many many things like these and so have you.
I believe that stats can show a trend but there are too many factors for them to really be relevant. I keep copies of all my son's games play by play ,his game stats and the season stats.
As far as college I was very pleased with his performance and his stats were good not great.

quote:

Originally posted by BobbleheadDoll:
If all the indicators are on a bad level that tells me something. I have talked to him and I believe it is a combination of a few things. Lack of workout, not pumped up and the girl friend.

Maybe his priorities are changing and yours are remaining the same.

That was my 1st question. He says he still loves playing. He said the team was a little difficult to warm up to but says he likes it and has a great roommate and host family.
I know he was missing his girl friend who has visited twice already. A 3+ hour trip on her own. There are only a few weeks left so hopefully he can tough it out.

My son was beating himself up his junior year because he had a bad ERA on the team. I tried to tell him he had pitched only 3 games and they were against 2 teams. One of those teams won the state championship the year before and was picked to win it again that year as well. (which they did, they also won it all again in 2007)

That did not help him at all. He was still beating himself up. Here is what I did to show him that he was still one of the best pitchers on the team and that explains why the coach choose him to be the starting pitcher on those tough games.

I made a grading system for all the pitchers on the team.

ERA
BA
BBP(WALKS)
OBP
K (AVGPER GAME)
H (AVG per game)

I took all the pitchers and there numbers and put them in order under these catagories.

My son's numbers for instance were:

ERA 3 place on the team
BA(Allowed)1 on the team
BB 1 on the team
OBP 1 on the team
K 3 on the team
H allowed 1 on the team

This gave him an over all pitching score of 10
the boy with the best ERA also had a 10. The boy with the 2nd best ERA had a 16 The boy right behind him with the 4th best ERA had a total score of 25 and the 5th pitcher on the team scored 29 using that system of comparison.

That seemed to be enough to persuade my son to stop beating himself up over his ERA. He was getting the job done for the team and as it turned out in the end he may have lost 3 games and won only 1 game but all 3 losses wound up being 1 point losses against teams that went on to be state champions and the state runner up team.

Looking back at just the ERA or the W/L record his pitching season does look bad. But the overall numbers tell an entirely different tale. The pitchers getting the wins were getting their wins against teams with losing records and teams who were eliminated the first game at playoff time. My son faced the championship team both times during the regular season and the runnerup team during the district tourney and lost all 3 games by 1 point each.

So look at all the numbers not just the ERA.

In HS our team didn't keep stats for that very reason. They are too young to understand unless a parent explains it to them.
Stats are weighted by several factors and the quality of competition, strength of team and many other things can screw them up terribly. W-L say a lot more about the team relative to who they play.

I saw my son pitch 3 innings against the #1 team in his conference. 1st 2 innings he sat all 6 batters. The next inning he sat the 1st 2 and then walked 1 and gave up a single. 2 on 2 out and the #1 HIITER CAME UP. He hit a hard 1 hopper to a freshman 3rd baeman who had just come into the game. Instead of receiving the ball and going for the force he tried to charge and scoop the ball. He flipped the ball over his shoulder out into left field. Both runners ran on the pitch and scored. Are thise ERs or UERs. He had an easy out at 3rd and would have ended the inning and the game. To me he made a mental mistake and a costly error. What was a great outting became a 2 ER over 3 innings. This is not reflected in numbers.
This stuff happens with the best players. It is part of the game