Is using velocity a valid way to measure a pitcher's fatigue

Losing velocity is a warning sign. From there I'm watching the pitcher's arm closely to make sure he's not dropping to a different slot. Losing velocity doesn't mean a pitcher can't compete. But changing his arm slot due to fatigue can lead to injury.

As a metric velocity has a lot going for it (objective, easy to measure, etc) but a drop in velocity may not be the proper key performance indicator for every pitcher.  It may be an appropriate measure of fatigue (or drop in effectivness) for a pitcher who throws heat, but inappropriate for someone who rely's on control.  Walks, pitches per inning, or first pitch strike percentage maybe more appropriate for that type of pitcher. A good catcher can probably tell when a pitcher is loosing his effectiveness far more reliably than any metric we've yet come up with.

Originally Posted by sowilson:

As a metric velocity has a lot going for it (objective, easy to measure, etc) but a drop in velocity may not be the proper key performance indicator for every pitcher. 

HELLO OUT THERE! I hope everyone reads and understands that!

It may be an appropriate measure of fatigue (or drop in effectivness) for a pitcher who throws heat, but inappropriate for someone who rely's on control.  Walks, pitches per inning, or first pitch strike percentage maybe more appropriate for that type of pitcher.

Here’s where my problems with using it begin. What does effectiveness mean? More hits, fewer Ks, more walks, more hard hit balls, more pitches per batter, more ….

A good catcher can probably tell when a pitcher is loosing his effectiveness far more reliably than any metric we've yet come up with.

I think that’s true, but how many amateur coaches are going to act based on a catcher’s recommendations? Heck, its fairly common for coaches not to even trust them to call pitches, so why would they trust them on whether or not to pull a pitcher?

I’m not against using the gun to determine when a pitcher is fatigued. I’m against believing all pitchers fatigue at the same rate and lose effectiveness at the same level of fatigue. IOW, a drop in velocity may not be the proper key performance indicator for every pitcher.

Nicely said sowilson.

RJM is correct, a drop in velo could be a sign the pitcher is tired, dropping his slot means its time to come out. A good pitching coach will keep his eye on the pitcher for these signs.

A loss in velo over time can signal an injury, I think more are concerned with that than in one game situation.

There are several warning signs including loss of velocity. Usually control seems to be the first to go.  But when someone throws 90 mph for 4 innings and can't top out above 85 in the 5th, that is a sign that there might be a problem.

When a pitcher loses his stuff and command, he starts relying on luck.  That actually can work for a short while, but the pitcher is actually done for the day and working on borrowed time.

Most pitchers lose a little velocity at some point during a game.  I'm talking about big drops, like 5 mph or more.  Sometimes they survive by getting a few at-em line drives or long fly ball outs.  Coaches aren't always aware of the velocity drop and leave them in until they are in trouble.

We've also seen pitchers that actually add velocity when they need it late in a game.

Three major things that scouts want to know... Peak velocity, Average velocity, and how long is the velocity sustained.  Sometimes loss of control actually causes loss of velocity.  The pitcher is simply taking something off to throw strikes.

But in every cases, it is important to notice loss of velocity.  From a safety perspective it's enough reason to take a pitcher out.  Not saying, that the pitcher can't be effective with less velocity, but there is a reason he is throwing softer all of a sudden.  If it (the lower velocity) is done somehow by design that would be different, but IMO most often it is a red flag and should not be ignored. Whether it is fatigue, mechanical breakdown, or even injury, something has changed. The radar gun is a great tool, it gives us information if we want to pay attention. It's not the only thing, but it is important.  The guy throwing 90 in the first inning and topping out at 80 in the 7th inning should not be pitching in the 7th inning.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

There are several warning signs including loss of velocity. Usually control seems to be the first to go.  But when someone throws 90 mph for 4 innings and can't top out above 85 in the 5th, that is a sign that there might be a problem.

I’ll forget about the problems with the measurement, but you’re talking about an almost 7% drop in velocity. I’m sorry, but its real hard for me to believe the 4 innings of 90 then sudden drop to 85 in one inning. I’m thinkin’ it would be more of a downward curve than sudden drop.

When a pitcher loses his stuff and command, he starts relying on luck.  That actually can work for a short while, but the pitcher is actually done for the day and working on borrowed time.

By “stuff”, I assume you mean velocity.

Most pitchers lose a little velocity at some point during a game.  I'm talking about big drops, like 5 mph or more.  Sometimes they survive by getting a few at-em line drives or long fly ball outs.  Coaches aren't always aware of the velocity drop and leave them in until they are in trouble.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I have to wonder why with pitch(f/x) data available, someone hasn’t shown the correlation of velocity drop to performance for ML pitchers. For amateurs at any level, not putting out the hook doesn’t really mean a great deal, but for ML pitchers it would be like throwing $$$$$ away not to use a method that was more or less foolproof. Maybe I missed it because I don’t spend a great deal of time reading about cutting edge discoveries at the ML level.

We've also seen pitchers that actually add velocity when they need it late in a game.

Has anyone tried to figger out why that happens?

Three major things that scouts want to know... Peak velocity, Average velocity, and how long is the velocity sustained.  Sometimes loss of control actually causes loss of velocity.  The pitcher is simply taking something off to throw strikes.

No disrespect intended, but here’s where the wants and needs of scouts conflict with the wants and needs of Coach Joe managing an 11YO team.

But in every cases, it is important to notice loss of velocity.  From a safety perspective it's enough reason to take a pitcher out.  Not saying, that the pitcher can't be effective with less velocity, but there is a reason he is throwing softer all of a sudden.  If it (the lower velocity) is done somehow by design that would be different, but IMO most often it is a red flag and should not be ignored. Whether it is fatigue, mechanical breakdown, or even injury, something has changed. The radar gun is a great tool, it gives us information if we want to pay attention. It's not the only thing, but it is important.  The guy throwing 90 in the first inning and topping out at 80 in the 7th inning should not be pitching in the 7th inning.

You may think I’m just being contrary here, but I’m not. I’ve watched a lot of ML games, and I honestly can’t remember any pitcher losing 5-7 mph. I’m not saying I’d have noticed, but there’s no way that much of a drop wouldn’t be noticed and commented on by any competent announcing crew. So I have to wonder, how many times has it actually happened where a pitcher was removed for that large a drop.

I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, I’m saying there are one heck of a lot of pitchers getting pulled where it hasn’t happened. That leads me to conclude there are other factors like slot change, ball finishing “up”, shorter stride, or any of a raft of other things that are considered much more “indicative” of having “lost” it.

Could you make some kind of estimate about the percentage of pitchers who are removed because their velocity dropped 6-7%, which is what 90 to 85 would be.

Stats,

I never said any pitchers were pulled from a game just because of losing velocity. But I can say there are many pitchers who get in trouble once their velocity dropped.

I don't know, maybe a few thousand times have I seen amateur pitchers drop as much as 5 mph from one inning to the next. We see it every day in the summer! We see it at showcases where a pitcher will top out at 90 in the first inning and never get above 85-86 in the second inning. There are guys that can throw hard for a short period of time and guys that can throw hard for long periods.  Often this is part of the reason some are closers and some are starters.

Let me ask, if you saw a pitcher throw around 90 mph for three innings and he could only top out at 85 in the 4th. What would you think? Everything is fine so long as he is still getting outs? Maybe he is tired?

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

I never said any pitchers were pulled from a game just because of losing velocity. But I can say there are many pitchers who get in trouble once their velocity dropped.

I guess I’m just completely confused here. If a pitcher wasn’t going to be pulled because of a velocity drop, why be concerned with it?

I don't know, maybe a few thousand times have I seen amateur pitchers drop as much as 5 mph from one inning to the next. We see it every day in the summer! We see it at showcases where a pitcher will top out at 90 in the first inning and never get above 85-86 in the second inning. There are guys that can throw hard for a short period of time and guys that can throw hard for long periods.  Often this is part of the reason some are closers and some are starters.

Well, since I’m sure you see many more pitchers than I do, I wouldn’t be so stupid as to say you’re wrong. But that doesn’t alter the fact that I’ve never personally seen any pitcher drop that much from one inning to the next. Maybe it’s the environment we’re each looking at causing the difference. I’m assuming most of the kids you see are trying to impress someone, so they likely are going at 100% right out of the gate, then because of many reasons, aren’t able to maintain that level.

In general, ML pitchers aren’t trying to impress anyone. They already have a contract, and are trying to be successful rather than impressive. Unless there’s a scout watching, the HS kids I see in games who are “regular” pitchers aren’t trying to impress anyone either because they have that job pretty much locked up, so its seldom I see one throwing as hard as he can right out of the gate.

Let me ask, if you saw a pitcher throw around 90 mph for three innings and he could only top out at 85 in the 4th. What would you think? Everything is fine so long as he is still getting outs? Maybe he is tired?

Well, as I noted earlier, you see many more 90 thrower than I do. In any given season, I don’t see more than 2 or 3 and none have ever had that kind of fall-off, so I don’t have anything to base an answer on other than logic. Logically, if I saw that I’d yank him in a heartbeat, but I’d sure be second guessing myself as to why I hadn’t seen something that gave me an indication that there was something wrong before that.

1. What is the pitch count?

2. Is it averaging 14.4 pitches per inning?

3. Is he getting outs?

4. Is he an "inning eater"

5. Is he a "fox". Keeping his upper fastball in reserve?

6. Are the foul balls pulled, straight back or opposite field?

7. Is the pitcher looking into the dugout for "help".

8. Are the infielders on their heals or in motion?

Bob

Originally Posted by Consultant:

1. What is the pitch count?

2. Is it averaging 14.4 pitches per inning?

3. Is he getting outs?

4. Is he an "inning eater"

5. Is he a "fox". Keeping his upper fastball in reserve?

6. Are the foul balls pulled, straight back or opposite field?

7. Is the pitcher looking into the dugout for "help".

8. Are the infielders on their heals or in motion?

I’m not quite sure why you posted that list. Are you saying those are the things that determine fatigue or are factors?

They are factors in determining the removal of a pitcher from the game.

Bob

Stats,

Guess I'm not sure what we are debating here.  Lets just leave it that we see many more  pitchers than you.

Are you saying all or most pitchers maintain or come close to maintaining their velocity forever?  

Obviously velocity drop is not the only reason to be concerned.  It's just one of the things to keep an eye on. If you are using a radar gun, I'm surprised you haven't seen these drops in velocity. We see it all the time.

In fact, I have been at games where all the scouts knew the pitcher was done based on the gun readings.  Yet the pitcher remained in the game. Typically when the fastball loses velocity, the breaking ball also loses velocity and shape.  The pitcher sometimes loses command.  He is more at risk and he is less likely to get outs.  At times it could be a mechanical issue rather than fatigue.  We have seen pitchers lose velocity and then regain it. So the velocity drop by itself might not be enough reason to take out a pitcher, but it is enough reason to get someone up in the bullpen. It is something to be concerned about. And it might just help lower the risk of arm injury.

that is my opinion, it's not the gospel, you're sure welcome to yours.

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

…Are you saying all or most pitchers maintain or come close to maintaining their velocity forever?  

 There’s no reason to be insulting. Of course I’m not saying that because it would be either ignorant or stupid. I’m saying I’ve never seen a pitcher drop the kind of velocity you say happens every day, from one inning to the next. I interpret that to mean its common. You’re talking more than 5% in one inning, and all I’m saying is, I haven’t seen it.

You’re not talking about a slow drop over the course of an outing. You’re saying a pitcher throws 90 in say the 6^th inning but can’t get above 85 in the 7^th.

Obviously velocity drop is not the only reason to be concerned.  It's just one of the things to keep an eye on. If you are using a radar gun, I'm surprised you haven't seen these drops in velocity. We see it all the time.

I don’t use anything but a keyboard and mouse. But I do sit where I can see the gun readings and hear what’s being said, and I’ve never heard of or seen that at a HS or college game. I’ve also watched more than 140 ML games every year for the last several years and never seen it happen there either.

I understand there are other things to look at that should be used in the decision. I just honestly don’t see how the gun is a better indicator, unless the velocity drop is very small.

In fact, I have been at games where all the scouts knew the pitcher was done based on the gun readings.  Yet the pitcher remained in the game. Typically when the fastball loses velocity, the breaking ball also loses velocity and shape.  The pitcher sometimes loses command.  He is more at risk and he is less likely to get outs.  At times it could be a mechanical issue rather than fatigue.  We have seen pitchers lose velocity and then regain it. So the velocity drop by itself might not be enough reason to take out a pitcher, but it is enough reason to get someone up in the bullpen. It is something to be concerned about. And it might just help lower the risk of arm injury.

that is my opinion, it's not the gospel, you're sure welcome to yours.

Hey look, I’m not trying to say you’re wrong or the scouts don’t know what they’re talking about. I’m saying I haven’t seen it to the degree you’re talking about. What I’ll do as soon as I can, is check with the local scouts here to see what they have to say about it because it may well be that you’re not explaining it in a way I can understand it.

Its not a big deal, but I’d really like to see the proof. Maybe I can find someone proficient in using pitch(f/x) data to see if proof is available. I will say this though. There can never be enough ways looked at to protect an arm.

Originally Posted by Consultant:

They are factors in determining the removal of a pitcher from the game.

OK. I think some are arguable because of the differences from pitcher to pitcher, but as general guidelines they’re pretty sound.

Why do you come here, ask questions and then argue every answer?

I would think that the bigger decreases in velocity would be more common during pitchers younger years, and not at the pro level.  The reason I say this is because by the time the player has made it to the MLB, teams know what they have in the commodity, i.e. Whether the player is a reliever or a starter.  At younger ages, coaches may leave a pitcher in longer than the player has stamina, and the velocity may drop substantially quicker.  Also, as the player moves through life, I would assume he becomes better at communicating his situation, therefore, less chance to have a substantial drop in velocity.   

Stats, 

Can you give a link to someone who actually advocates pulling pitchers based on reaching a pre-determined velocity loss?  

As I understand it, most pitching coaches who track velocity interpret a velocity drop simply as an indication that "something" changed.  Then they try to figure out what changed (fatigue, mechanics, dehydration, injury, effort, etc.).  Then they try to decide what to do about it (i.e., suggest a mechanical adjustment, wait and see, pull him).  

I have never seen anyone advocate a practice of setting a firm threshold of decreased velocity and making a one-factor decision to remove a pitcher based on reaching that threshold.  Can you show someone who does?  

Thanks, 

S

A kind observer posted this link. I don’t know that it PROVES anything, but I certainly found it interesting reading and wish someone would take it a bit further.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c...pitchfx-sabermetrics

This paragraph found at the end of the article might even be the most interesting, at least from the perspective of velocity and injury.

If we take this at face value, it would appear that pitchers who see their velocity fade as the game wears on are less prone to injury than those who throw harder as they should be more tired. If true, perhaps this is a reality of what our bodies can realistically handle without breaking down. I should point out, that despite the common knowledge that Justin Verlander maintains his velocity deep into games, he actually posted a -0.07 slope using this method, putting him in the least injury-prone group. He did in fact maintain his velocity very solidly through pitch counts 21-100, but actually pumped his fastball significantly faster in the first 20 pitches of the game, driving his fairly high negative slope.

Originally Posted by Swampboy:

Stats, 

Can you give a link to someone who actually advocates pulling pitchers based on reaching a pre-determined velocity loss?  

As I understand it, most pitching coaches who track velocity interpret a velocity drop simply as an indication that "something" changed.  Then they try to figure out what changed (fatigue, mechanics, dehydration, injury, effort, etc.).  Then they try to decide what to do about it (i.e., suggest a mechanical adjustment, wait and see, pull him).  

I have never seen anyone advocate a practice of setting a firm threshold of decreased velocity and making a one-factor decision to remove a pitcher based on reaching that threshold.  Can you show someone who does?  

No, I can’t point to a specific coach who does that, but then again, I don’t know every coach in the country.

All I can continue to say is, I’ve never seen even one instance of a pitcher’s velocity dropping almost 6% from the end of 1 inning to the start of the next unless there was an injury, so when I hear someone in as elevated a position as PG indicate it’s a somewhat “normal” occurrence, I feel obligated to at least question it.

Sometimes we all forget that its not just the well-educated and experienced baseball minds that look at these forums, and I don’t think its unreasonable to believe a coach who doesn’t have a lot of experience might not understand that those who use velocity as an indicator are counting on many other things to factor into them making a decision about allowing the pitcher to continue or remove him.

If you think its too much to expect people to fully explain why they do the things they do, all I can say is I don’t agree. To me its important to be very clear that the players PG is looking at are rarely not players very close to both physical and mental maturity, not to mention in a much smaller segment of the population. While the paradigm he says takes place in his world may be valid in that world, I can find nothing other than anecdotal evidence that it holds true both above and below his paradigm.

Would you guarantee that there aren’t coaches out there who use the gun exclusively to make the decision to remove a pitcher? It would be impossible to tell because not everyone uses a gun to monitor every pitch. There are many coaches out there who seem to be extremely successful, both in removing pitchers before their ineffectiveness cost a high price to the team, and in minimizing pitching injuries. If there were any proof that velocity was a valid indicator, wouldn’t it be common sense for a much higher percentage of coaches to do it?

IOW, I’m not saying it isn’t true, I’m only challenging the extent to which it might be true.

Stats,

I mentioned earlier that I have seen significant velocity drops many times.  Obviously this is among high school pitchers for the most part.  I also mentioned three things that scouts want to know when they are evaluating a pitcher.

Peak Velocity

Average Velocity

How long can they maintain Velocity.

Peak Velocity speaks for potential. whatever velocity a pitcher can throw he should be able to throw again.

Average Velocity speaks of potential also.  It simply tells us the range a pitcher throws at.

Maintaining high velocity  These are the guys that get drafted earliest and in many cases end up in the Big Leagues as starting pitchers. So using MLB velocity is not really the same thing that I'm talking about.

We have seen pitchers throw in the 90s for 7 innings.  We have seen pitchers throw in the 90s the first inning and mid 80s in the second inning. We have seen pitchers throw 90 for half the game and suddenly top out in the mid 80s. 

That said, I will relate one personal story that did happen in the Big leagues. My son was the starting pitcher for the NY Yankees against the Chicago White Sox several years ago. He went 5 innings pretty much sitting between 93 and 96.  There was a rain delay and to our surprise they brought him back in to pitch.

I was sitting next to the scout that signed him and he couldn't believe it.  In the 6th inning his peak velocity was 87 MPH. He got through it with no damage, but both the scout and I knew something was definitely wrong based on the big velocity drop.  He started the next inning and was pulled after the first two hitters.  Later on he had TJ surgery.

The first warning sign was what the radar gun was reading. Actually the first warning sign was he went back in after a long delay, but you never know that for sure.  When you don't throw a pitch under 90 for 5 innings and all of a sudden you are throwing mid 80s, something is wrong!

When I coached in college I didn't need to know every pitch, but I did always want to know what velocity our pitcher was throwing.  Everytime we would see it drop significantly, the bullpen got busy. It didn't matter if the pitcher was throwing a shutout or not. We figured we were taking a chance... actually two chances... he was going to blow the game and he might end up blowing his arm.

I would argue until the cows come home against any theory that a tired arm is less likely to suffer injury. That would go against everything related to pitch counts and overuse. Besides most pitchers cannot be as effective with a tired arm.

It's an interesting discussion, but somehow I think I am saying to use the radar gun to determine whether to take out the pitcher. I'm only saying the radar gun provides information. Every pitcher is different.  The radar gun simply tells you what velocity the pitcher is and has been throwing.  When your 85 mph slider is now a 78 mph slider, for most, that is a bad sign of what is to come. Something has changed!  That is one of many warning signs! It sure isn't the only thing to consider. It might be because of fatigue, or maybe mechanics... either way it is a cause for concern. In fact, a small change in mechanics can be the thing that causes an injury.

BTW, most high school pitchers that throw with good velocity, do not maintain that velocity for 7 innings.  It is very common to see a pitcher touching 90 in the first couple innings and finish the game topping out in the mid 80s.  It's not rare, in fact, it's the norm.

Sometimes it involves a steady decline, sometimes it is a fairly sudden drop.  It is that sudden drop that should concern everyone.  For those that think it is easy to see it with the naked eye, it's not always that easy to tell when a pitcher loses velocity. The hitters usually let you know, but not always.

At any rate, velocity drop is just one of many things that should cause concern. It can help determine what should be done or you could just wait until it is too late. That sure is done a lot.

Stats, I never lie about anything related to baseball. Once a liar, always a liar, and my reputation is extremely important to me.  So if I say I have seen it many times, It is not any opinion that I could be wrong about, it is the absolute truth!!! Why don't you just learn something from it!

PG,

I just spent close to 2 hours answering your last 2 posts, but I’ve decided not to waste your time because although we really don’t disagree on much, we aren’t communicating very well. So I’m gonna try a different tack, and I hope you’ll go along with it.

Let’s just say I’m an ignorant beginning coach who thinks what you’re saying makes sense, but I don’t know the details well enough to use a gun to spot problems myself, and you’re giving a class on how to do it. Tell me what to do in detail. Please don’t use words like “significant” without telling me exactly what significant means.

Something like “Gun every pitch in an inning, and mark down the highest velocity reached”. “Then if at the end of an inning you see the peak velocity more than 5% lower than the highest prior peak, if you haven’t already been alerted to a possible problem, consider the alert to have been sounded”. An example would be in the 5^th inning to have recorded a peak of 85 for a pitcher, but a peak of only 80 in the 5^th. Another would be to have recorded a peak of 65 in 4 innings, but only seeing a peak of 61 in the 5^th.

Maybe I can convince our coach to start gunning our pitchers.  

I am having a hard time figuring out what is so hard to understand about a drop in velocity is a cause for concern. Anybody with any sense could figure that out...

I'm not sure why PG should have make further effort to explain something any further to someone who has never coached, never will and doesn't hold coaches in much regard. Everyone else understands what he's saying already.

For the sake of clarity, I'm not trying to jump into whatever Stat's debate is on this. I agree that a notable drop in velo is at the very least an indication that a pitcher may be getting fatigued.

I was however interested in PG's comments isolated above... I hadn't thought much about this before so wanted to ask. Wondering how this metric gets graded out or noted by D1 and pro scouts? Is it mostly a differentiator between potential SP vs RP at a given level, or is it a potential differentiator between being recruited at a certain level or not recruited at that level?  Wondering if it typically gets graded separately, or if it's more of a finer point that becomes part of an evaluation only for those pitching prospects that standout in peak and average velo? Interested in this, but also understand that PG may not have time to answer every question that gets thrown at him.

Alright, time to just drop it.  Another thread ruined by Stats.  To keep it lighthearted, we could keep a online tracker on here to count the amount of threads turned out this way.  Or place bets on upcoming threads that will be hijacked by Stats.

Well, to be fair, he didn't hijack it and ruin it.  He started it and ruined it.

Originally Posted by rynoattack:

I am having a hard time figuring out what is so hard to understand about a drop in velocity is a cause for concern. Anybody with any sense could figure that out...

And I’m having a hard time understanding why anyone with sense wouldn’t want to have some kind of guidelines as to what amount of drop is a cause for concern and what amount is just natural. Saying things like “a drop in velocity is a cause for concern” is a pretty broad statement. A drop from what to what? Why is there so much fear of being asked a simple question?

I’ve been quite clear that I’m ready willing and able to go to our coaching staff with a plan to aid them in more accurately identifying when to pull pitchers, but they’d laugh me out of the room if all I gave them was “a drop in velocity is a cause for concern”. They’d ask me the same questions I’ve been asking here. I’ve already approached our HC and am waiting for an answer.

If this is truly a place where people can go to learn techniques that help them manage a team, not the least of important things is to protect the health of the players, why not help with the details of how to do that? Jeez! Even when I agree with someone and try to find out how to make our program better by applying techniques they find to be effective I get attacked. Its only a question people! I’ve tried very hard to be respectful, so I can only guess there are many of you who just don’t want to be asked anything.

Stats,

i don't have a problem answering questions.  It's just when the answers are scrutinized so much it gets kind of painful.

There is no formula that I know of where a velocity drop tells you the pitcher or the game is at risk.  All pitchers are different.

a large drop in velocity from one inning to the next or even in the middle of an inning is a reason for concern.  That's it! There is no more!

When a pitcher loses control... It is an obvious reason for concern!

When a pitcher is getting lit up... It is a reason for concern!

When a pitcher is maintaining his velocity and breezing along... No need to be overly concerned.

Do you keep pitch counts? Is there a point that the pitch counts starts being a concern?

Some pitchers are able to throw more pitches than others. Just like some pitchers can throw with more velocity than others.  You lose much more than velocity when it drops.  You lose movement and life. You can lose spin on the breaking ball and the change up is no longer as deceptive.  And often you even lose control so you are actually throwing at a lower speed with less control. Your mechanics can break down making it hard to repeat your delivery.  You are struggling!  And the very first sign of all of this was right there on the radar gun.

To me a significant drop in velocity in a short period off time would be 4-5 mph. From there you have to know the pitcher.  Is he changing things for a reason or will his arm only allow the lower velocity?  And once again, we have seen pitchers throw 90 in the first inning and finish the game throwing low 80s.  You won't see that at higher levels because the pitcher wouldn't be in the game that long.  That pitcher is running on fumes and way beyond whatever his personal pitch count should be. IMO, he is at great risk!

Whether scouting or coaching I consider the radar gun a valuable tool. it provides information and as a scout or a coach I want all the information I can get. Once you have the information, you decide what to do with it.  You can even ignore it if you want.

Every pitcher has a limit.  Some can throw as hard in the 7th as they did in the 1st. Most can't do that. Some for only an inning. Some for a few, some for several, but at some point everyone drops.  When that drop is more than 2 or 3 mph for some, 4-5 mph for others, it is reason for concern.  Both for competitive and safety reasons.  Concern doesn't always mean that you act immediately. It just means you pay closer attention to what is going on, because you are aware of the drop in velocity.

I'm trying hard, but not sure if you really want to know something or simply Want to disagree with everything.  I don't know what else to say.  Part of what I've said is fact, part is just my opinion.  There are others that know more than I do.

An interesting topic and one I tried to just be a spectator of.  My two cents....based only one watching my sons mechanics, every pitch, and the rest of his pitching teammates.  I don't have , nor does his Coaches, the luxury of "gunning" their pitchers during a game.  Rather, it comes on closely monitoring mechanics, for me at least.  I can tell you, as I am sure most coaches and people really involved in the game could as well, is that once a pitchers mechanics have started to change repeatedly(usually due to fatigue), it is time to consider a change, because something is "wrong" or "different" and THAT is cause for concern.  It is hard to believe that a pitcher can have a change in mechanics mid game without affecting his velocity as well as his control.

A cause for concern has been aptly explained above by PG, so I won't go into it any further.  Also, you seem to be a bright individual, but you also seem like someone that has an axe to grind, and no matter what anyone says, if it doesn't fit your argument, you seem to just nit pick. 

You claim that you are only asking questions, but I believe there is some magical, hidden agenda that you have.  I haven't seen any instances where you agree with what other posters are saying.  It always seems to be an argument.  Sometimes I think it is beneficial to look at ourselves and decide if we are in the minority on issues.  If we are, it might be a good idea to consider that we may be the problem, and not the overwhelming majority...

I used to share that opinion that Stats had "some sort of magical agenda", a method to the madness.  But have come to the conclusion over time that there is no real agenda, just a desire/need to split hairs and debate (largely made up) theories ad nauseum. I know a lot of people hammer the Little Devil, and it's often a very appropriate target... JCG and James G are right that many posts that Stats starts or participates in get bogged down in endless minutia. But... I've also seen posts get shut down by administrators due to Stats incessant bleatting... and I personally think this is wrong, too. It's an open forum after all... Stats can be massively irritating, but he's never profane or personal that I've seen. I also frequently get a chuckle out of JCG and others comically shining the light on the madness.. so that's worth something. Personally, I tend to not read Stats' posts much because they are crazy long and generally splitting some hair that I wasn't all that interested in to begin with... but still think he's within his rights to participate. Just as we're all in our rights to try to inject some reality and reason into his thinking... but good luck with all that.

Good post ryno!

It's really not too hard to figure out, but stats is a numbers guy, if you can't make a case with numbers than he will argue the point ad nauseam.

BTW, that piece with Justin Verlander has nothing to do with the issue when discussing loss of velocity for a HS player, which I think the OP is really referring to.  A loss of velocity for those getting paid lots and lots of money, can be devastating  for the team's success. FWIW, this is not the first year that JV has lost velo, so sometimes there is no explanation, as it was in his case a few years ago.

You do not need a radar gun to chart pitches, though I understand more and more HS programs are doing it. All you need is a good pitching coach who knows his players and what to look for, signs that the pitcher may be tired or hurt. It's that simple. If the pitching coach or HC has no clue, then you are you know what out of luck.

It's not really hard to figure out,

FYI, this is stats second stint here, he slipped through the backdoor to come back with another name. You can find him as scorekeeper on lots of other sites and he does the same thing there as well.

IMO he is working on borrowed time.

Posting here or on any site is a privilege not a right.

So is he really within his rights?  I say he is pushing the envelope.

Thank you for your efforts PG. It's stuff coaches understand without asking nitpicking questions.

What did you Head Coach say to your question?

"I’ve been quite clear that I’m ready willing and able to go to our coaching staff with a plan to aid them in more accurately identifying when to pull pitchers, but they’d laugh me out of the room if all I gave them was “a drop in velocity is a cause for concern”. They’d ask me the same questions I’ve been asking here. I’ve already approached our HC and am waiting for an answer."

STATS: Can you define the word "significant"?

In our real estate lease, this word is used constantly in determining how to mitigate a tenant or landlord disputes and attorney's will have 10 different opinions. 82% of the attorney's will substitute a different word.

Head Coaches, HS, College or Professionally have very short period of time [maybe 2 minutes] to change a pitcher and 15 minutes to prepare for the change with the bullpen alerted.

As PG, RJM and other have stated, the experience of coaching a team is a determining factor. The relief pitcher needs to be ready and in cold weather, I mean ready to pitch.

Bob

Originally Posted by PGStaff:

i don't have a problem answering questions.  It's just when the answers are scrutinized so much it gets kind of painful.

I don’t understand why. Really, have I been disrespectful somehow? If I have it was unintentional and I apologize. I’m just trying to find out how to replicate what you’re doing.

There is no formula that I know of where a velocity drop tells you the pitcher or the game is at risk.  All pitchers are different.

a large drop in velocity from one inning to the next or even in the middle of an inning is a reason for concern.  That's it! There is no more!

It seems as though this is where we’re talking past each other. Don’t you think I know all pitchers are different? That’s exactly why I have difficulty when you use numbers like 5MPH. I converted that to a percentage in order to use it on other pitchers. IOW, a 5MPH drop to a ML pitcher throwing 90 is not nearly the same as a 5 MPH drop to an 11YO in a LLI game.

5MPH is 5.6% of 90, so that’s the drop you say caused concern. There’s nothing wrong with that because its at least a legitimate guideline. From that I can say a pitcher peaking at 65 who shows a 5.6% drop raises concerns. That’s 3.7MPH. That would mean seeing a 61 peak for that pitcher raises concerns. That’s all! Its that simple! I’m just trying to get you to say what that drop-dead percentage is that should raise a concern in order to have a guideline, because without it, people will make up their own, and that could cause trouble. I’m not trying to trick you, I’m just trying to get some information with which to set up some guidelines.

When a pitcher loses control... It is an obvious reason for concern!

When a pitcher is getting lit up... It is a reason for concern!

Undoubtedly.  

When a pitcher is maintaining his velocity and breezing along... No need to be overly concerned.

And here is another place we disconnect. The above can be rewritten to say, “Even if a pitcher is breezing along, if his velocity drops its reason to be concerned. Maybe I’ve just seen way too many pitchers who don’t have the great velocity to start with but breeze along none-the-less. In fact, if 87 is the magic number for high velocity in HSV pitchers, I’m thinkin’ that covers less than 5% of all HSV pitchers. It may be it cover 95% of all HSV pitchers you see, but you’re not seeing many “average” pitchers like I do.

Do you keep pitch counts? Is there a point that the pitch counts starts being a concern?

I do, and I communicate them to the coaches. But what concerns them and what concerns me are usually 2 different things. I leave the decision up to the guy whose job it is to make the decision.

Some pitchers are able to throw more pitches than others. Just like some pitchers can throw with more velocity than others.  You lose much more than velocity when it drops.  You lose movement and life. You can lose spin on the breaking ball and the change up is no longer as deceptive.  And often you even lose control so you are actually throwing at a lower speed with less control. Your mechanics can break down making it hard to repeat your delivery.  You are struggling!  And the very first sign of all of this was right there on the radar gun.

I definitely agree in general, but don’t agree that more velocity is always better. I’m thinking specifically of CC Sabathia when he was with the Indians. I heard him, their manager, and their pitching coaches on several occasions say that when he got up over 95, his FB straightened out too much and things often got ugly. He was raised near here and every few years I get the chance to talk to him, and he says the same thing then. While he’s always been able to really heat it up, 93-96 is his most effective range. Masterson is another one who has to keep the velocity down, otherwise his sinker won’t sink, And if he lets it get too slow it breaks way too much.

To me a significant drop in velocity in a short period off time would be 4-5 mph. From there you have to know the pitcher.  Is he changing things for a reason or will his arm only allow the lower velocity?  And once again, we have seen pitchers throw 90 in the first inning and finish the game throwing low 80s.  You won't see that at higher levels because the pitcher wouldn't be in the game that long.  That pitcher is running on fumes and way beyond whatever his personal pitch count should be. IMO, he is at great risk!

I agree with everything but the 4-5 MPH, for the reasons I’ve stated before. 4-5 MPH is one thing for a pitcher topping out at 90+, but really an enormous amount for one topping out at 50. That’s why I find percentages so much easier and less confusing to work with.

Whether scouting or coaching I consider the radar gun a valuable tool. it provides information and as a scout or a coach I want all the information I can get. Once you have the information, you decide what to do with it.  You can even ignore it if you want.

I agree. For what you do at the level you do it, its far more valuable than it is for 9-10YOs, and there’s a lot more pitchers 8-14 than 15-18.

Every pitcher has a limit.  Some can throw as hard in the 7th as they did in the 1st. Most can't do that. Some for only an inning. Some for a few, some for several, but at some point everyone drops.  When that drop is more than 2 or 3 mph for some, 4-5 mph for others, it is reason for concern.  Both for competitive and safety reasons.  Concern doesn't always mean that you act immediately. It just means you pay closer attention to what is going on, because you are aware of the drop in velocity.

Now it looks like you’re advocating something else I happen to believe in. A “profile” for every pitcher rather than an absolute number for all.

I'm trying hard, but not sure if you really want to know something or simply Want to disagree with everything.  I don't know what else to say.  Part of what I've said is fact, part is just my opinion.  There are others that know more than I do.

I assure you, I have better things to do with my life than try to make yours miserable. I see that you’re trying to answer me, and I’m sure much of the inability to do so, is my inability to communicate what I’m looking for. Its just that I read and hear so many “experts” just throw opinion out there under the guise of fact, that I question things a lot more now than I did when I was just a pup.

Something that also helps, is having the personnel and equipment available to do things like that. In our case, we don’t even have a gun, and even if we did, it would be difficult finding someone reliable to use it. Heck, we have trouble finding someone to run the scoreboard, and that doesn’t take paying close attention to at all.

At any rate, I do appreciate you making the effort to wade through all the BS in order to give me an answer. Thanx.

I imagine we all use the HSBBW in different ways and for different reasons. My own reason for frequenting the forums is to learn anything and everything that I can in order to better help my son pursue his baseball goals.  I have been lurking here I guess since he began kid pitch... learning all sorts of finer points about pitching, coaching, parenting, college recruiting, you name it.  Plus... I enjoy "talking baseball" with others who genuinely love the game... which is basically eveyone here I think.

Anyway... as I said, I personally don't read much of anything that Stats writes.  But I will say this...

He started this thread, which illicited responses and thoughts from PGStaff... who I listen to every chance I get. I picked up a simple pitching concept from PGStaff in this thread that I hadn't really though much about before. Nothing earthshaking, just a finer point to think about in evaluating pitchers and about how pitchers are evaluated next level. So for me, Stats actually provided some value by starting this thread... whether he meant to or not! His goal may well have been just to create yet another opportunity to "go on" about one of his supposed statistical theories... but the thread ended up generating some useful feedback to at least this one poster. It's pretty easy to choose who's replies you read and whose you don't. If this thread had been shut down earlier due to Stats admittedly irritating arguing, then we'd have never gotten some of PG's responses.  Just something to consider...

rynoattack,

What possible “agenda” could I have, and if you truly have seen me agree with anyone, you don’t read everything. All I’ve done is ask for something more than generalizations.

And just out of curiosity, what is it you think I’m in the minority about on this issue?