MLB Draft & College Recruiting

There are lots of other reasons for a player to go JUCO including non-qualifier status, desire to be draft eligible sooner, cost, etc.

No one should go to sit on a bench. While the player sits, he doesn't get better and others who are playing (e.g., at JUCO) are getting better and the coach is also searching for a starting player outside his bench.

I think it will take several drafts before the new "rules of the road" emerge. In the meanwhile, why would top programs scale back on the over recruiting - a program can never have enough talent. It is up to the parents and players to recognize the issues (too many talented players clogging up the roster). Whether the parents and players change their behavior is doubtful.

Look at what happens already - so many state schools (because they're relatively inexpensive compared to private schools) bring in classes of 20+ per year - year in and year out - but are still able to repeat the process while leaving the debris of players in their wake. Parents and players continue to march into that situation without any concern for the consequences.

I guess what I think will happen is more of the same. Coaches recruit to the max; players leave programs because they are unhappy.

A college junior getting drafted in a good position (that's pretty much a personal decision) should begin his pro career and not wait, because the older you get the more difficult it becomes. Keep in mind very, very few players are able to play the pro game out of college, for most it's another 3-5 years possibly.
Besides the longer one waits the more chance of injury.
I am aware of a few top talented players that went JUCO for a year before signing, but not too many (anyone correct me if necessary), that sort of went away after the rules changes (no more follow player for a year). Top talent does one of two things, upholds his NLI and goes to play at the better programs or signs a pro contract.

I agree with Goosegg on most points made. College programs will continue to over recruit, and parents and players will still have to be the ones to sort it all out, as they have more to lose than BIG STATE U.

Under the new NCAA rules JUCO students must have a much higher GPA to transfer to a D1 school. The kids who go the JUCO route for non-academic reasons (and maintain their GPA's) may find themselves in GREATER demand than before. However, the weaker students, who basically go JUCO just to play baseball, will find JUCO to be a dead end.

I will be curious to see how well some of the JUCO transfer mills adapt to the new rules. Many offer little in the way of academic support. If that doesn't changes, many of their guys will be done after two years.

quote:

Originally posted by BlueRidgeBandit:
Will the Mlb Draft agreement keep more kids in college as seniors and will the top college programs continue to recruite such large classes like 14-18 kids. Would be interested to see if more top college prgrams get into the JUCO supply of talent or just keep signing recruits as in the past.

Would expect that a lot of JUCO talent that can play at Top programs would also get drafted and not look for such oppurtunities, but with the CBA changes those draft choices may look to further their playing careers to up their stock in the draft.

The question then becomes will a JUCO route be a better option for developement of players and a pipeline to upper level D-1 progams or will it become an after thought for border line D-1 players and those players go ahead and sign with Mid Major D-1 schools and sit for a season or two while the upperclassmen stay at school, at least knowing that they are on a D-1 team and should get an oppurtunity as juniors and seniors.

I think that what I'm looking down the road at is wheather the the new draft system will have a negative influence on juniors at 4 yr programs leaving for the professional ranks due to little or no bonus $$, thus leaving them with more reason to stay in school for their senior year, thus limiting the oppurtunities for incoming freshman, because they will be proven players that a coach will use frist.

My thinking then leads me to wounder if the Juco system then becomes more of a feeder to 4 yr schools due to fact that freshman will then be playing and have more experience than 4 yr school freshman watching or getting limited oppurtunities and using up eligibilty.

I understand that things will continue to operate as before to a certaint degree, but would think that some change will take place due to less players taking the chance of not improving their stock in the draft and returning for senior year.

I have looked a several rosters at the D-1 level and find a small percentage of senior players, I would think that is due to several reasons and getting drafted would be good enough for most if they got any kind of signing bonus ($75K+-)now not so sure that will be an option if chosen in the lower rounds.

Just looking at the landscape and what to expect over the next few years as it pertains to college baseball and the direction we are headed, I belive that the game will grow and flurish in the coming years as it is getting more exposeur on the national level and keeping talent in the game will only inprove the product.

Just for some imfo, how does the NCAA rules change for JUCO transfers.

quote:

Just for some imfo, how does the NCAA rules change for JUCO transfers.

I beleive the GPA minimum went from a 2.0 to a 2.3.Correct me if I am wrong,I am going on memeory.

While I think that the CBA makes it slightly better for college srs, that group still has significantly less leverage then college jrs. As such, the bonus to srs will still be less then bonus to jrs. Jrs will be offered slot - remember, if a top 10 rounder does not sign, the club is dinged the slot amount, so there is no point in lowballing a junior top 10 round pick (lower rounds will still get the same low amount).

The incentive for a Jr to sign remains the same under the CBA. And remember the time factor - a Sr is older and has less time to prove himself in pro ball.

I think the real effect of the new draft rules will be felt on HS kids. I think in the past roughly 500 HS kids were drafted but only a couple hundred signed. Now fewer will sign. Most who would have signed, but will not now sign, are headed to upper echelons programs. Those programs will be "flusher" but, again, I don't think the choices of parents and players will change - keep in mind that all those HS kids committed before the draft and really don't factor a kid NOT coming to the school because he signed.

Therefore, in those top programs competition (which was always intense) will be even tougher. Kids will be unhappy; coaches will be happy. Kids will transfer out either to sit a year or go JUCO. Baseball life will continue.

JUCO players need not only a higher GPA but also, I believe, higher "quality" credits. NAIA schools will probably benefit because they are not subject to the rules.

The issue remains how to balance getting playing time with the right school - the proverbial "fit".

The new GPA requirement for transfers from 2 year colleges is a 2.5, according to proposal 2011-69. This proposal had only 4 override requests, so we can reasonably expect it to be in effect on August 1, 2012. At present, this is only applicable to D1 schools, so competition for roster spots at D2 schools is likely to get tougher.

Especially for non-qualifiers, the kinds of courses that are acceptable has gotten tougher also.

3FG beat me to the punch, as usual. :-) Below is the NCAA's summary of the changes applicable to JUCO's.

"Additionally, the presidents adopted new standards for two-year transfer student-athletes. Data show that transfers from two-year colleges often struggle academically after arriving at a four-year institution.

The Board approved an increase in the transferrable grade-point average from 2.0 to 2.5 and limited the number of physical education activity courses to two. Also, two-year college transfers who didn’t qualify academically out of high school will be required to complete a core curriculum that includes English, math and science courses.

The new transfer requirements will apply to any student-athlete enrolling full-time in college for the first time in August 2012 or later."

See:
http://www.ncaa.org/wps/wcm/co...dent-athlete+welfare

quote:

The new GPA requirement for transfers from 2 year colleges is a 2.5

quote:

The new GPA requirement for transfers from 2 year colleges is a 2.5,

3Fingers: I have a couple questions

1.If a schooly player transfers out at the end of fall,is that money available to another player for spring,EG current player,or a transfer

2.If a student fails to qualify academically and is a schooly player is that money available for coach to try to attain another player eg.JC player?

fanofgame,
I don't know for sure; the rules are not self-consistent on this point. However, a player who becomes academically ineligible or a player who voluntarily withdraws may both have their aid cancelled. I think that both of your situations are treated in the same way regarding redeployment of the money.

It is my opinion that in baseball, if aid is cancelled during or at the end of a term, the money can be awarded to another player effective the following term. A player whose aid is being cancelled has the right to a hearing, and clearly the hearing must have been completed before aid can be cancelled. Also, if aid is cancelled, but the player was receiving other countable aid, the other countable aid has to be taken into account. I imagine that in some instances the arithmetic won't allow any other player to get additional aid. For example, if a player were getting less than 25% from the athletic department but had other countable aid (which brought him up to 25%), then depending on the nature of the other aid, it might not be possible to transfer his fractional equivalency to a non-scholarship player.

Perhaps conferences also have rules regarding this.

Thanks for the answer.Confusing sometimes.

quote:

Originally posted by Goosegg:
While the player sits, he doesn't get better and others who are playing (e.g., at JUCO) are getting better and the coach is also searching for a starting player outside his bench.

I would say this varies greatly depending on what position you play and what 4-year program you bypass to get playing time at a JOCU. A pitcher that goes to a 4 year program would get more consistant and probably better pitching instruction over his college career even though the player may not get much "game" time his freshman year. IMHO this is extremely important for pitchers in this stage of higher level training or "advanced" development. I would also venture to say that a position player that goes to the 4-year school and has to sit his first year may have an advantage at getting the position over a transfer or new freshman. From what I have whitnessed this all really depends on who is a better hitter, assuming fielding talents are comparable.

The college experience is also totally different at a 4 year school where many live in a dorm vs a JOCO where most commute.

Don't get me wrong, there are issues with playtime at a 4-year program that a player and parent might feel because of playtime, but I gather from my son and his teammates that the "bench" time as a freshman is worth the time for the relationships that develop, the training that is provided, and the equipment that is provided. But that 4-year school experience varies greatly across different programs due to funding and coaching personalities and styles.

I believe I heard a player say "if you ain't hitt'in; your sitt'in" no matter what year player you are.

i think you will see a much better group of talented freshmen enter d1 colleges beginning in the fall of 2012. fewer high school drafts will be offered $100k bonuses out of high school and the guys who signed and moved into proball will shrink. i think d1 bseball will get much better beginning next year. the $ for a really talented player to sign out of high school was somewhere between $250k-$300k. guys who used to get this will not get it now in the lower rounds and go to college. i think these guys will play s freshmen at the premiere colleges, and the wave will push down to juco. may see more freshmen sign to play d2 and d3 because they have no other offer. may see an increase in guys who aren't great students going to the dominican and taking community college cousework online. just a thought

I didn't review this thread in detail, only skimmed it, so 3FG may have already addressed this. Regarding fanofgame's question about whether money scholarship money could be reissued, in most cases that won't be possible because of the limit of 27 players on scholarship. Assuming the coach already had 27 guys on scholarship, a scholarship player that leaves will still need to be counted within the 27, so his money can't be reissued.