MLB or College?

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Take the MLB draft, or pass it up and play in College?

What round and what college? For me, it's a sliding scale....

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What round and what college? For me, it's a sliding scale....

You pick. What round pick makes your scale slide one way or the other?

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Thought this would make an interesting thread.

It not only would, it has. About a dozen times just in my memory!

Round is irrelevant. Money of $750,000 or higher to pass college.

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98% of the h.s. seniors who think they're going to make it big in baseball find out otherwise in their first three years after high school.

Where do you want to be in life when reality hits?

Would you rather be a college senior on track to complete a meaningful degree with a locker room full of lifetime friends and a senior season still ahead of you?

Or would you prefer to start life from scratch with whatever's left from your signing bonus when you get released?

It should take a whole lot to entice you away from a good college opportunity--enough to be sure the MLB team is convinced you're really a ML prospect. Mark B's number is as good a cutoff as any, I suppose.

From a dad's perspective, the purpose of baseball is to keep young men who don't like to sit still in school until they realize the baseball dream isn't going to come true.

Set a minimum limit on what you want and anything at it or above it go for the money. College will always be there especially with the MLB scholarship program.

This is a very hard question to answer because there are so many variables but overall if the money is there you got to take it. Money like that doesn't come around very often.

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Money of $750,000 or higher to pass college.

Pass it up and go Pro.

Follow your dream.... where ever that takes you.

Several variables - but 2 important considerations are;

1. What are your realistic non- baseball opportunities? The more you can realistically achieve in the non-baseball world - the more it should take to give up college.

2. College will always be there - true - however attending college at 25 is a different experience than attending college after high school. Maybe not better or worse - just different.

3. If you get drafted and play for 4 or 5 years at various levels and are then out of pro baseball - will you consider that a success and an experience you are glad you had / or would you consider that a failure and be upset?

$750K doesn't go as far as it used to. Depending on the family I think a Stanford baseball scholarship is a better bet than $750K.

There's some risk involved but a legit $750K guy is going to finish 3 years of school and be worth somewhere around that, more or less. I don't know that the 3 years of minor league salary and experience is worth more than a Stanford education.

Very much an individual thing in every way.

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I don't know that the 3 years of minor league salary and experience is worth more than a Stanford education.

or any college education for that matter. I don't know either and that's the point probably, perception is reality.

In my way of thinking; everybody, know matter the draft round, would be better off experiencing College and college baseball prior to going Pro. If you were good enough to be considered a high draft choice out of H.S. and looking at "life changing money," you will be as good if not better three years later as a junior in College.

I can't recall hearing a Pro, that played College baseball, say "that he wished he had just gone Pro right away." I recall Nomar and Texiera, both who played at Tech, talking about the value of their college experiences and that they would never recommend not going that route. There are many other examples you've probably heard yourself.

Also, we all probably know several early round choices that have spent the money, are uneducated and under employed ex-pros at age 28! Then, because of family commitments, they can't afford to go to school or just don't want to.

Even the 2-5 million dollar bonus guys, I'd still feel like they've missed an opportunity that they can never get back and likely, if it were meant to be and they were that good, that door will still be open later.

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$750K doesn't go as far as it used to. Depending on the family I think a Stanford baseball scholarship is a better bet than $750K.

That pretty much sums up what I meant by a 'sliding scale'.

What round and how much to sign vs school you are planning to attend and the value of the education.

I would lean toward school since you will probably get drafted again, in a lower round, with more potential bonus money. (If not, college was probably the right choice anyway.)

Interesting thread.

There've been some good "rules of thumb" advanced here (like the $750K bonus money) but like all rules of thumb, it really depends on the individual.

My son is an academic lagger (to my disappointment and continual prodding; despite the same parenting as his 4.1 GPA sister, as a freshman he is starting off in the 2.5 range). I think he is begining to see the light on working harder, but barring some great surprise in development and academic work ethic, I would be surprised if he finished much higher than 3.0-3.2.

For a kid like that, Stanford (and its ilk) is not realistic and he might well prefer to play pro ball rather than go to college, even for less (even significantly less) than that $750K "rule of thumb." Hopefully as he matures, he will see the value of higher education and return to it when he is more ready to make something of it.

For an academic star, maybe a kid who has always dreamed of being a doctor, lawyer, engineer or some other profession that requires academic rigor and is rewarded by going to a good school and doing well, that dollar figure might very well be significantly higher than $750K.

For the average kid, I'd say Mark B's $$ litmus is a decent one. As Hawk19 implies, though, I would say round is important as it signals some additional likelihood (perhaps, $$ does this too) of being drafted again, which is also an important factor.

Let us look at this realistically---how many hs grads are mature enough toenter the world of minor league baseball? COLLEGE gives them a chance to mature . AND DO THEY SPEAK SPANISH? that is the predominant language in the minors .

Under the new CBA, 750k is proably only through the 2nd round. So, you are talking about the top 70 picks in the draft. Pretty small window.

I agree with PG, it's a decision unique to every player with so many variables.

I think that proball develops players to play proball; I am not at all certain that college ball is similarly focused on development. So, playing three years in college is not the equivalent to playing three years in proball.

Because athletes have a limited shelf life, getting to proball earlier gives the player a better chance of pro success. But passing on college means losing out on that unique experience. I don't think it's a decision about money. It's far more complex.

TR,

You make a good point. However, there are many who have gone pro out of high school and made that adjustment and there are many that are not mature enough to make it in college. Maturity is important, but talent and hard work is the recipe for making it to the top. Pro baseball is not for everyone, college is not for everyone.

Also, I understand your thoughts on speaking Spanish, lots of spanish speaking players, but I'm pretty sure the predominant language is still English. The Spanish speaking players who don't speak English have a much tougher time than those who speak English and no Spanish. This too changes from one place to the next.

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Originally posted by TRhit:
AND DO THEY SPEAK SPANISH? that is the predominant language in the minors .

For a guy who supposedly knows so much, this is a ridiculous comment. And the fact that it is not true, makes the comment, at a minimum, offensive.

Moreover, even if it was true, what is your point?? That one can only go pro if they speak Spanish? If that was the case, all non-spanish speaking kids with aspirations of pro ball should just quit.

I have seen many young men who were not mature enough to take full advantage of college, and needed a couple of years doing something else before they could benefit. For one of those guys, a couple of years in the minors might have been a good gig. Then settle into college, make the best of what is offered there, and move on with your life.

As many have pointed out, there's no one answer.

I feel there may be added risk for a pitcher who attends certain colleges because of overuse between the college season, the fall season and the summer collegiate leagues, whereas a stud pitcher may be protected by his pro team as an eighteen or nineteen year old since he is a high dollar investment. It may not be the same for a more run of the mill pro prospect. There are some college coaches that have a reputation of overworking their ace pitchers. This could lead to money offered at eighteen no longer being offered at twenty-one after shoulder or elbow issues in college.

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I have seen many young men who were not mature enough to take full advantage of college, and needed a couple of years doing something else before they could benefit.

So true, yours truly included. Nothing a couple of years of required military service wouldn't fix! Guess that's another thread though. Not sure a mil and a couple of years in the milb is the ticket to maturing? Certainly an opportunity for lots of trouble perhaps...

High school seniors are usually offered a larger bonus than a four year college grad. If a team makes an investment of a large bonus in a player, they will not give up easily on that player.

College grads for the most part have no options except 'take what we want to give you, or take a hike'. Some college players can lead their conferences or be a high profile player and not get any interest from MLB after graduation. Being four years older and having the tools to get a good job, college grads might take the short money and give the minors a try for a year or so.

It's a business. College will always be there. A high bonus baseball contract may not come again after four years.

Take the money and play ball while you are still in top shape. Teams will find a way to get you ready before they kiss off close to a million dollars.

Are we so lacking in this country in baseball talent that the minors are mainly Spanish speaking ? Or does the MLB think the international route will maintain the fan base.

There are plenty of spanish speaking nations that have baseball leagues (Mexico, Venezuela and all the winter ball leagues in Latin American nations.

Take the money

My son went pro out of HS for little money, that was his dream. It was tough at first but he was mature enough. He does not regret it ... He is making decent money now and through MLB he is getting a education and will graduate this winter.

The odds of most players of getting drafted is low, getting a $750 signing bonus is lower and the odds of "making it" for a long career in the bigs is slim to none. To make those released from pro ball out as losers is insulting.


"Also, we all probably know several early round choices that have spent the money, are uneducated and under employed "ex-pros at age 28! Then, because of family commitments, they can't afford to go to school or just don't want to."


There may be a few but the majority and all the players I have met who have been released were hard working young men with pretty good grasp on reality and are the type of men who will be successful in what every they choose to do after baseball.

Since so few get the big bonuses it should not be about the money. It has to be about "do you want the college experience or not" If you do or your not sure go to college.

njbb,

Congratulations to your son! I bet he is a pretty well rounded person by now.

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Originally posted by Midlo Dad:

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Thought this would make an interesting thread.

It not only would, it has. About a dozen times just in my memory!

At least 3 or 4 times a year.

The title, IMO, should be milb or college. Understand that milb is not MLB. Not even close.

I go with the statement that PG has given, it's an individual thing. A decision should be based upon the player and families circumstances. Pitcher son passed on the draft in HS to go to college (6-10 projected rounder), that was a great choice for him, he has never been sorry, even with his struggle to reach MLB. For someone else it may not have been a good one.

If it's about the bonus money go to college, if it's not, than go pro. In my son's case, the bonus wasn't large enough to give up his scholarship. Again, for someone else it might be different.

njbb also brings up a very important point, follow your dream.

Spanish is predominent in the very lower levels of most organizations, because that is where the organizations latin players begin, whereas the US drafted player usually begins at a higher level (even HS players). It is not the predominate language in the minors. All organizations are different.

My advice is that if your son will someday be faced with that decision, make sure that you seek out advice from those that are educated to give you information that is good for you based upon your circumstance.

So 2016, tell us about the conversation between the former ball players, what was their opinion?

Another aspect to factor in is the fear of injury which is close to the overuse that Three Bagger is talking about. I know it's rare and a fear you have walking down the street but if you're getting pretty good money is it worth turning down to go to college and maybe having a career ending injury?

I would say that the thing to remember is to do well enough in school that the grades make college possible. You can use one to leverage against the other to get more money.

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Originally posted by TRhit:


....AND DO THEY SPEAK SPANISH? that is the predominant language in the minors .

Really?
You are kidding! right?

OMG

The fear factor should never be a consideration because a player can get hurt anywhere at anytime. IMO, a player that suffers a major injury while young may be better off rehabbing while at college than in milb. In milb being on the DL is losing valuable time (even for #1 picks) while others in good health move ahead of you. Trust me on that one. This is why I am such a stickler for good practice in youth sports, especially for pitchers.

As mentioned this is all a personal decision, keep in mind that very rarely does a player out of HS NOT spend 4-5 years preparing for MLB. There are exceptions, those are usually your first round million dollar players.

Keep in mind that in many cases, going to college is a very good option, Bauer, Cole, Posey, Hultzen, Price did their time on the college field, but they attended programs that turn out high draft choices year in and year out. IMO, there are very few college coaches who can prepare players for the next level.

I think the title of this thread is both interesting...and telling.

"MLB or college?"

The choice, out of HS is NOT "MLB" or college. It is M-i-LB or college and that...is a very different question.

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Originally posted by TPM:
So 2016, tell us about the conversation between the former ball players, what was their opinion?

It was a lengthy conversation that i was neither well prepared for, nor educated on the topic. But, i was the minority with "College". Both ball players are late 30's early 40's. One was a D1 pitcher that passed up the draft (dont know the round), the other was a JUCO and NAIA position player, also passed up a draft (again dont know the round). The position player went on to play a little baseball internationally and the D1 moved on to the workforce. Short version: Their "opinion" was to take the draft, college will always be there but the odds of getting drafted are slim to none so take it when you are offered because you may never get offered again.

"if you're getting pretty good money is it worth turning down to go to college and maybe having a career ending injury?"

Career-ending injuries happen in the minors, too.

Ask yourself, if baseball ends in the next 3 years, would you rather (a) have whatever amount of money you could have kept in the bank, after living expenses and taxes, from your pro bonus, or (b) be one year away from a degree at the college of your choice?

The answer to that question will vary from player to player, depending upon his college prospects (viewed academically) and the amount of bonus money being put on the table.

Do consider that quite often, a HS player can use baseball not just to get scholarship money, but to "move up" in terms of what college's name will be on his diploma and his resume for his entire adult life.

In contrast, while many pro signees are put into the MLB scholarship program, it is a fact that very few use that program before their rights expire. It's also a fact that the ones who do use it often tend to "move down" from where they COULD HAVE gone to school, due to the need to, e.g., pursue studies part time or at night once they are 25, maybe married with kids even.

That's just the economic side of it. Also think about the entire collegiate experience, because these days it's also a socially connecting thing that sticks with you through life. Not so much if you're the 25-year-old freshman.

Also bear in mind that, in the absence of injury, the player can hope to go pro after 3-4 years of college anyway. So the choice is sometimes presented as "either-or", but in reality, for many players it's more of a "now vs. later" thing.

Thank you PG we are very proud of him.


I also want to add that the social connecting though pro ball is excellent !

First let's assume a kid is college material. A poor student probably shouldn't attempt going through the pain of college. But assuming a kid is college material I say the bonus should be life altering money to sign.

Life altering can have different definitions for different people. A kid from our high school passed up PAC 10 ball to sign for 150K. His mother left him with his grandmother as a small child. His grandmother was broke. He felt he owed her something and signed. The kid went into short season as a skinny seventeen year old. After three years of short season he was released. He spent the next three years trying to get signed by playing Indy ball.

In another case I know of a local kid (where I live now) who passed on 2.5M to play college ball. I don't think anyone in his family broke down the math. 2.5M equals 100K for 25 years. The purpose of college is to get yourself prepared to earn a living. The signing bonus would have set him up financially and got him started three years ahead of time in short season. The kid (a RHP throwing 92) is about 6'3", 200. It's not like he needed time to fill out. His father told him to hold out for 3.5M.

If a kid is figuring his odds I read last year 84% of MLB'ers were drafted in the first ten rounds. 94% were drafted in the first twenty rounds.

At the least the kid should be signing for enough to cover four years of college at some point, without worrying about the MLB scholarship fund timing out on him.

What happened to the kid who passed up 2.5? is he in college now?
Maybe he just wasn't ready for life in the minors? Maybe he just wanted the college baseball experience?

There have been players who took the money, hated the life style and left pro ball. They lose the money and the chance to play college ball.

There is more to consider than money

There was a player who turned down a "reported" 1.5 million and went to school. He had good 3 yrs, was redrafted in 2nd rd(?) and signed for $600,000.

I know of players kicking around the minors and Indy ball who have degrees from great schools. They signed for nothing,play for nothing and wouldn't want to do anything else. They love baseball

RJM,

In your analysis - Passing up $ 2.5 million now - would equate to a far larger annual equivalent for 25 years - even if you used a discount rate that was equivalent to just a 3% inflation rate. (As opposed to true opportunity cost)

The foregone constant equivalent would be about $ 145,000 per year.

That is a material difference.

When in doubt - take the dough.

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Originally posted by njbb:
What happened to the kid who passed up 2.5? is he in college now?
Maybe he just wasn't ready for life in the minors? Maybe he just wanted the college baseball experience?

There have been players who took the money, hated the life style and left pro ball. They lose the money and the chance to play college ball.

There is more to consider than money

He's a freshman in the SEC.

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Originally posted by RJM:
First let's assume a kid is college material. A poor student probably shouldn't attempt going through the pain of college. But assuming a kid is college material I say the bonus should be life altering money to sign.

Life altering can have different definitions for different people. A kid from our high school passed up PAC 10 ball to sign for 150K. His mother left him with his grandmother as a small child. His grandmother was broke. He felt he owed her something and signed. The kid went into short season as a skinny seventeen year old. After three years of short season he was released. He spent the next three years trying to get signed by playing Indy ball.

In another case I know of a local kid (where I live now) who passed on 2.5M to play college ball. I don't think anyone in his family broke down the math. 2.5M equals 100K for 25 years. The purpose of college is to get yourself prepared to earn a living. The signing bonus would have set him up financially and got him started three years ahead of time in short season. The kid (a RHP throwing 92) is about 6'3", 200. It's not like he needed time to fill out. His father told him to hold out for 3.5M.

If a kid is figuring his odds I read last year 84% of MLB'ers were drafted in the first ten rounds. 94% were drafted in the first twenty rounds.

At the least the kid should be signing for enough to cover four years of college at some point, without worrying about the MLB scholarship fund timing out on him.

RJM,
There have been a lot of players that have turned down life changing money to attend school. For many it was not about the money, obviously. Many of them signed for much more after college. I sincerely beleive that for those that have early round talent, never lose it, though both you and I know that what has the most affect on this is a major injury, which can occur anywhere, at any time.

I agree that life changing money is different for everyone, as I agree that one can make a decent living playing in milb, either on the 40 man roster getting called up for a few weeks or more, or as a milb free agent (which occurs after 6 years in milb when your original contract expires). That is if the player has been able to remain in the game that long, either by being released and not able to get back in or hanging up the cleats. Most players prefer to do it on their terms, I fully understand why.

One very important thing to keep in mind, be very familiar with the MLB scholarship plan. The money placed in the plan by the drafting team, does not accumulate interest (for the player). When son was given money to cover his final year, tuition was 13K less than it is now for a semester (what he has left). Also understand that for each level that the player moves up, after 90 days, some money is taken back, if I recall a grand a level. So you never really get back what they originally placed in the plan for you.

So if a player signs for 150K out of HS, unless he can save, the scholarship plan will not necessarily cover (change that to probably won't) his expenses to get a 4 year degree if he plans on attending a 4 year program on a college campus.

I am not sure what is meant by a poor student, poor grades or poor in wealth? Most coaches that really want talented players that can't afford their tuition, get larger athletic scholarships, or in some cases the player can attend a JUCO which in some states very affordable. He also can get a year to mature and get better.

I strongly suggest that within the next few years, when scouts come to see your sons play, that you fully understand what pro baseball is all about. For most of your kids who have had a very comfortable life, parents who may be able to supplement if the bonus cannot sustain the player, or a wife that is able to support the player as well, you will understand why the lower levels (lower picks with less talent than higher draft picks) of milb are mostly filled with latin players.

Many years ago on our recruiting trip to Clemson we were told a story, has stuck with me for many years. Without revealing a name, they signed a player that was drafted out of HS and turned down 500K which was a lot of money back then (before 2000). The player came from a poor family, by our standards. This to him and his family was life changing money. He was encouraged to sign. However, he was the first in his immediate family as well as extended, to have the opportunity to attend college, he chose that option, that was much more important to him than 500K and most likely reaching ML.

Again, keep in mind that the decision means different things to different people, and once made, never should be regretted, even when looking back in the rear view mirror. FWIW, getting opinions from guys in the office that probably passed up milb because they were very late picks isn;t necessarily getting good information. JMO.

And also keep in mind that those that have options also have better opportunities, that is why it is so important to do well in the classroom and have that possible college scholarship available for using to your advantage.

FWIW, my son would have signed for 2.5 out of HS as I am sure most of our players would have been advised to do.

Hmmm...I never really thought of the advantage of learning to speak spanish while in milb. That completely changes my feelings on the matter.