Offers & Committing

@2021CatcherDad posted:

Our son is committed to a HA D3. HC still told us to keep academic and baseball options open because of this crazy and unknown environment we are current living in. The issue is deferrals at HA schools because school is currently online. HC said he will walk through the application for admissions but even with a very positive academic pre-read response from the director of admissions, he added a caveat that deferrals in this incoming freshmen class can possibly affect admissions for 2021 HS graduates. He was asked to apply ED1 by the HC so he won’t know if he is accepted until December at the earliest. Doesn’t leave much time to activate plan B. 

Not sure how son can keep baseball options open while still being committed to what was one of his target/dream schools. 

Wow.  My son has committed to a HA D3, but we heard nothing like this.

However, I will say that when my son touched base with the head coaches at other schools he had been talking with to tell them of his decision, a couple of them said things that sort of sounded like a willingness to offer him again if his current commitment fell through for some reason.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

 

The link below is a thread from just over a week ago on Recruiting Slots at HA schools and my reply.   I think the HC is just being honest and giving you a totally fair read on the situation.   Does he have fewer "slots"  this year, maybe, can he sneak a few more guys over his slots, doubtful due to deferrals. 

What to do? He's not using a slot on your son as noted above.  You must try to be as realistic as possible on his chances to get in.  In a normal year if acceptance is 20%, for 2021's it might be 10%-15%.   Everyone thinks their kid will get into these schools but in normal years its an absolute crapshoot.  What would I do?  Apply ED and be prepared to apply to 10 other schools in mid-December or tell the coach that while this school is your #1 choice and you are committing to playing baseball for him, his comments give you pause on actual acceptance and you would prefer to apply early action, and then apply to the other schools of interest.  Just my 2 cents...

https://community.hsbaseballwe...20#64092996560767020

Thank you to all for your replies and opinions.  The HC said he has limited his offers by at least 50% because of the possible affect of deferrals.  He is using a slot for my son, but normally he gets more slots.  He said he is only using two this year where normally it is 4-5.  Even before COVID, he couldn’t guarantee admission to this school, but he has never had anyone rejected.  Their normal acceptance rate is around 9-10%, so who knows what it will be this year.  However, he said he has only submitted candidates and used his slots on players that are academically competitive.  I don’t think any coach and school can realistically guarantee admissions, but using their pull and slots you have a very good idea that it’s likely.  Additionally, this school only has early decision and regular decision...no early action.  Our son reached out to admissions to ask about how many deferrals are in place and if it will affect next years yield.  They responded saying they expect to admit a larger class to accommodate the deferrals.  

Our son has had 99.9% of the communication with the coach, but everything he tells me has coincided with the few conversations I have had with the coach.  I feel he is being honest, upfront and with good intentions.  I have no reason not to believe the coach given his reputation and from the conversations we have had with existing roster parents and conversations our son has had with past players.

I told my son to keep up with communications from some other target schools and prepare to apply on short notice to other schools.  All of the other schools have stated to let them know if admissions or otherwise fall through, but that they have to keep recruiting.

The true challenge for my son is how to keep up communication with schools that have showed interest and reaching out to additional programs knowing he would prefer to go to the school and program he has committed to joining and that ticks every box.  I suppose it’s all a leap of faith, but have always have plan B.

2021 Catchers Dad - I feel for you man.  One year ago my son got "offered" by the school he really wanted to attend.  He accepted and we went ED and even though we were told all would be fine we were nervous right up to the actual acceptance.   We didn't have a backup plan, we would have had to scramble.  Your situation is great in that he got his top school but if a slot after an academic read isn't a guarantee I don't know what getting a slot actually means.   As I noted though I think the coach is really being honest here which is great and the times are unprecedented.   Given the fact that your son has a slot and there is no EA I think you have to trust the process and have a few applications ready to go in case of emergency.  

@2021CatcherDad posted:

Our son is committed to a HA D3. HC still told us to keep academic and baseball options open because of this crazy and unknown environment we are current living in. The issue is deferrals at HA schools because school is currently online. HC said he will walk through the application for admissions but even with a very positive academic pre-read response from the director of admissions, he added a caveat that deferrals in this incoming freshmen class can possibly affect admissions for 2021 HS graduates. He was asked to apply ED1 by the HC so he won’t know if he is accepted until December at the earliest. Doesn’t leave much time to activate plan B. 

Not sure how son can keep baseball options open while still being committed to what was one of his target/dream schools. 

There’s a lot of shooting in the dark due to unknowns. If he comes out with his dream education it’s the right move. 

@2021CatcherDad posted:

Thank you to all for your replies and opinions.  The HC said he has limited his offers by at least 50% because of the possible affect of deferrals.  He is using a slot for my son, but normally he gets more slots.  He said he is only using two this year where normally it is 4-5.  Even before COVID, he couldn’t guarantee admission to this school, but he has never had anyone rejected.  Their normal acceptance rate is around 9-10%, so who knows what it will be this year.  However, he said he has only submitted candidates and used his slots on players that are academically competitive.  I don’t think any coach and school can realistically guarantee admissions, but using their pull and slots you have a very good idea that it’s likely.  Additionally, this school only has early decision and regular decision...no early action.  Our son reached out to admissions to ask about how many deferrals are in place and if it will affect next years yield.  They responded saying they expect to admit a larger class to accommodate the deferrals.  

 

Interesting CoVid effect here. 

Just a guess, but from everything you're saying, if your son's test scores and grades are at or above the median for admitted students, he's probably in good shape. If not, I'd be nervous.  Heck, I'd be nervous no matter what.  Having a plan b is a good plan.  Good luck to your son!

@2021CatcherDad posted:

Thank you to all for your replies and opinions.  The HC said he has limited his offers by at least 50% because of the possible affect of deferrals.  He is using a slot for my son, but normally he gets more slots.  He said he is only using two this year where normally it is 4-5.  Even before COVID, he couldn’t guarantee admission to this school, but he has never had anyone rejected.  Their normal acceptance rate is around 9-10%, so who knows what it will be this year.  However, he said he has only submitted candidates and used his slots on players that are academically competitive.  I don’t think any coach and school can realistically guarantee admissions, but using their pull and slots you have a very good idea that it’s likely.  Additionally, this school only has early decision and regular decision...no early action.  Our son reached out to admissions to ask about how many deferrals are in place and if it will affect next years yield.  They responded saying they expect to admit a larger class to accommodate the deferrals.  

Our son has had 99.9% of the communication with the coach, but everything he tells me has coincided with the few conversations I have had with the coach.  I feel he is being honest, upfront and with good intentions.  I have no reason not to believe the coach given his reputation and from the conversations we have had with existing roster parents and conversations our son has had with past players.

I told my son to keep up with communications from some other target schools and prepare to apply on short notice to other schools.  All of the other schools have stated to let them know if admissions or otherwise fall through, but that they have to keep recruiting.

The true challenge for my son is how to keep up communication with schools that have showed interest and reaching out to additional programs knowing he would prefer to go to the school and program he has committed to joining and that ticks every box.  I suppose it’s all a leap of faith, but have always have plan B.

Good luck to you and your son - rooting for you and the other '21s who are in this pickle

If he has a slot, he's in as good a position as possible.  Fingers crossed it all goes well.

@2021CatcherDad posted:

 

The true challenge for my son is how to keep up communication with schools that have showed interest and reaching out to additional programs knowing he would prefer to go to the school and program he has committed to joining and that ticks every box.  I suppose it’s all a leap of faith, but have always have plan B.

Sounds like you and your son have done all you can to suss out the situation at the school he has committed to.

I'm not sure how you keep options open with other schools except maybe to be honest with them about what you're hearing.  Has your son told the other schools yet of his commitment?  If any of them give your son an opening (expressing sincere regret to have lost him, hinting that they would still be interested if things change, etc.) , perhaps he could explain what is going on and explore whether ED2 or RD might still be on the table with one of these other schools if things go pearshaped?  It's a highwire act to say you're my second favorite school, but that might be the best way to do it.

My son had a squishy offer from another HA D3.  The coach was very honest that there is never guaranteed admission at his school, but said he would support my son with admissions.  As much as my son liked the school, the coach, and his baseball program, he decided the offer was just too iffy to use his one ED application on it.  I think the coach understood, and we really appreciated how upfront he was about it.

I hope all goes well with ED and your son heads off to his first choice school!

@LuckyCat posted:

Sounds like you and your son have done all you can to suss out the situation at the school he has committed to.

I'm not sure how you keep options open with other schools except maybe to be honest with them about what you're hearing.  Has your son told the other schools yet of his commitment?  If any of them give your son an opening (expressing sincere regret to have lost him, hinting that they would still be interested if things change, etc.) , perhaps he could explain what is going on and explore whether ED2 or RD might still be on the table with one of these other schools if things go pearshaped?  It's a highwire act to say you're my second favorite school, but that might be the best way to do it.

My son had a squishy offer from another HA D3.  The coach was very honest that there is never guaranteed admission at his school, but said he would support my son with admissions.  As much as my son liked the school, the coach, and his baseball program, he decided the offer was just too iffy to use his one ED application on it.  I think the coach understood, and we really appreciated how upfront he was about it.

I hope all goes well with ED and your son heads off to his first choice school!

Thanks again to everyone for their input. 

He has indicated to the others that he is committing to the school of choice, but in his mind he can’t publicly commit until he is accepted. He has honestly explained the situation to the others and they have appreciated his truthfulness and honesty. I told him that will go a long way in case he has to go back to the other schools with hat in hand. 

There are others he most definitely would get in and with a very healthy academic and athletic scholarship, but he knows he would not necessarily be happy there or they don’t have an engineering major  

Choices are limited for 2021’s as I believe the pandemic has reduced recruitment numbers overall and getting seen at schools outside of your local area is extremely difficult. Add in the typical social, academic and financial fit and it’s like looking for a needle in a haystack. I would be interested in the actual recruiting numbers compared to previous years after the Covid-19 dust settles. 

I think we should cross our fingers, count our blessings and keep a plan B in mind as best we can. 

Good luck to all!!!

@Francis7 posted:

How many players have accepted and committed on their very first offer?

Is there any downside to doing this if you have done your homework and the school who made the offer checks every box for you on your checklist?

My son did.....and let's just say it worked out "ok".  The HC was an absolute disaster....the PC that recruited him was gone after 2 years and they never won more than 15 games in a season.   That being said, the school was close to home.....he loved it...and the teammates were great.  Almost 2 years after graduation, he still goes back to the school for a party with some of the teammates once in awhile and has been back to several games.   Yes, we wonder if things would have been different somewhere else....but all in all, I think he'll tell you he's ok with the decision

Francis7,

If your son accepted an offer from the first coach who offered, and feels good about it, and excited and feels that it is the right program, the right school where he wants his degree from, the offer was good,  than that  should be enough to make you feel better.

I realize that this is a very important decision.  I remember having  some doubts to one of the best decisions son made, together with us.

But, at one point it's time to move on!

Before Covid19 I was never a fan of kids committing early. I don’t believe anyone knows where a 15 year old kid will be when he is 18. Too many big changes to accurately predict. That’s why schools over-recruit. They know they are gonna miss on some guys. Now, having said all that I will be the first to admit that the rules of the recruiting game have changed. Significantly. There have been many posts about the potential for overcrowded rosters and scarce opportunities going forward. Up to now that was theoretical - but now it’s happening. Lots of schools have kids back on campus and  baseball teams are practicing. Some schools have posted 2021 rosters online and I have found 4 schools to use as specific examples to illustrate what (I believe) will happen at most competitive programs, no matter what level of baseball. 
                       Returning.      2020s.      Total

D1 TCU              30.                  22.           62

D2 Central Mo.   incl/.          incl/.          62

D3 UT Dallas     43                  18.            61

JuCo Cisco (TX).   incl/.           incl/.         62

  One thing that all 4 of those schools have in common is that they are all competitive. They often are in the running for Conference & Regional championships. Another thing they have in common is that those are all time highs for number of players on a fall roster. 62 players?!? Are you kidding me ?!? In 3 months 20 kids on each of those rosters will be told they won’t be playing for that school in the spring (assuming that games are played). What will they do? Some won’t play anymore but many others will transfer - and if they want better odds they might bounce down a level (D1 to D2, etc.). What this means for classes of 2021, 2022, 2023 is that figuring out roster realities is more important than ever, and historical info may not apply. Another fact of Covid19 recruiting is that (if baseball is important) now is NOT the time to “reach” for your dream school. In fact, if you aren’t being recruited by top 20 D1 programs academics should drive the decision anyway. Every player eventually reaches a point where life gets put in front of baseball and (unfortunately) current national events are delivering that message to lots of ballplayers. Now is the time to get the right degree and let the baseball chips fall where they may. Commit early or commit late. It really doesn’t matter. You just best be really good on the field you show up at. Unless you are elite at your level it’s going to be more difficult for players  to find a spot and also more difficult to keep it. That’s the reality for the next 4 years. Please send your thank you notes to the NCAA or your local politician. Both will be equally happy to ignore what you have to say. 

@adbono ‘s post should be required reading. A new golden post. Absolutely sobering. Seeing those numbers typed out is SO different than talking about it theoretically. 

@DanJ posted:

@adbono ‘s post should be required reading. A new golden post. Absolutely sobering. Seeing those numbers typed out is SO different than talking about it theoretically. 

Made a typo on TCU - should read 52 players and not 62.  But honestly, any number above 45 is concerning 

@adbono posted:

Made a typo on TCU - should read 52 players and not 62.  But honestly, any number above 45 is concerning 

Typo or not, adbono that is an awesome post for today's recruiting environment during Covid-19.  The NCAA took a terrible situation and made it significantly worse for current and hopeful college athletes. `You are spot on my friend.

related question - we think an offer is coming soon. High on the list but not the #1 which is also in play and not out of the picture. How do you react to the offer without saying yes right away in a manner that also doesn't turn the coach off the player?

@Francis7 posted:

related question - we think an offer is coming soon. High on the list but not the #1 which is also in play and not out of the picture. How do you react to the offer without saying yes right away in a manner that also doesn't turn the coach off the player?

More info needed again... how high on the list?  #2? #20? do you know what the offer will be? will it meet needs otherwise?  Is it high enough on the list that player would be happy to accept if he knew #1 wasn't going to offer? etc., etc.

I'll assume for a moment that the offer coming is from #2 or #3 on the list and you know the offer is good.  Then the player would respond with something along the lines of "I'm really excited at the opportunity to be a Buckin' Bronco.  Buffalo is very high on my list.  This is a huge decision and, of course, my family is involved in the process... can I take a few days to discuss with them and make sure it is the right one?"  Then the player would let #1 know he has an offer that he needs to respond to and before accepting, wanted to know where he stood on their board.  If the offering school asks if he is weighing other offers, it's OK to let them know that other schools have shown interest and, again, just want to make sure it is the best decision all around.

During that type of dialog, it is certainly possible that the offering HC will address timeline for a decision.  So, things will likely become more clear at that point.

@Francis7 posted:

related question - we think an offer is coming soon. High on the list but not the #1 which is also in play and not out of the picture. How do you react to the offer without saying yes right away in a manner that also doesn't turn the coach off the player?

Look at the circumstances albono laid out. Unless they’re hot for him and willing to wait I wouldn’t take long to commit or it’s rolling the dice. 

The numbers in the talent pool for the next couple of years is going to extremely favor the college programs. 

It’s really a matter of how much your son believes. Will better options come along? Will he have a genuine opportunity to compete at the better options if they come through. 

Bird in the hand is going to be a big theme for recruiting the next couple of years.

@Francis7 posted:

related question - we think an offer is coming soon. High on the list but not the #1 which is also in play and not out of the picture. How do you react to the offer without saying yes right away in a manner that also doesn't turn the coach off the player?

In our experience, coaches don't expect the recruit to say yes on the spot.  All the coaches who have given my son an offer have also given him time to consider his options.  When the offer came, my son just told each coach he was really honored and thrilled (which he was) and that he would get back to them.  We did tell our son that if a coach pushed for an immediate answer, he was to say he would need to talk with his parents, who would need to look at the financial aid side of things before he could commit.  However, he never had to use that stalling tactic because all of the coaches seemed to understand that it was an important decision and couldn't be made instantly.

All will give time and if there is a time limit they have no problem sharing that with you.  Middle son was given 24 hours by UNC to give them an answer.  They were point blank.  You are our first choice but there is a long list of guys behind you.  We need to know in 24 hours or we will move on down the line.  Others said there is no time limit.  Some of those came back at some point and said we need to know something by such and such date and some said what would it take for you to come.